Friday, July 28, 2017

King George - A blooming rose among the thorns

What a terrific line-up for the King George! Top-drawer names make this contest wide open and the soft conditions could be the deciding factor in determining the winner. First, let's remove the wheat from the chaff; Desert Encounter, Maverick Wave, My Dream Boat and Sixties Song could aspire to places but it is difficult fathoming any of them coming out on top.

Highland Reel is Mr Exemplary who rarely runs a bad race. This globetrotter has an exquisite travel record and is the title holder of the race. His last run on soft ground was in Dubai in which he finished at the tail end of the field. That does not bode well for him if the conditions remain soft on Saturday. He will need at least good ground to retain his title.

Idaho is the full-brother to Highland Reel and although he has yet to bag a Group 1, he is a horse on the upside that can spring a surprise with some luck. He is clearly the stable's second pick but will run with his own chances and cannot be dismissed as a place chance.

Jack Hobbs is the dark horse of the race. Not because we don't know much about him but because if he clicks as expected on soft ground, he will be involved at the finish line. If the ground conditions don't suit, he could come out with the same stinker as at Royal Ascot.

Ulysses beat Barney Roy in an epic battle in the Coral-Eclipse and is another horse on an upward curve. There is the niggling thought with him that he might have run his race of the season already and I am not entirely sure that 3 weeks rest will be enough to get over his exertions at Sandown. The 12 furlong distance, although within his usual realm, might overstretch him in this case.

Like his Godolphin counter-part, Benbatl comes in with some question marks. There is no doubt in my mind this son of Dubawi is top-class and potentially best over a mile-and-a-quarter. The way he finished so well in the Epsom Derby leads me to believe that it was his class carrying him all the way through; he will need lots of it to overcome these seasoned mile-and-a-half older colts. If all things fall for him, it won't be a shock if he were to prevail and I see him potentially as a value top 4 pick.

Finally, the blooming rose among the lot; Enable is easily the staying filly of the Classic generation, having bagged 2 Oaks in spectacular fashion already. As with all John Gosden horses, the words from the trainer's mouth are so vital; in this case, the vibes from the connections are ever so bullish. That means the filly is ready to go. She is packed stamina-wise and will benefit from a weight allowance from the colts. The fact that she only raced a fortnight ago could be a factor, albeit a small one in my opinion, as she won that race in a canter. She looks set to emulate the mighty Danedream, the last filly to win the race.


Win: Enable
First 4: Benbatl



Friday, July 14, 2017

Enable and Caravaggio to enhance their reputation

The big splash of summer racing is already under way and some of the big guns are out this Saturday to confirm their glowing reputation.

Enable looms large in the Irish Oaks. After her demonstration at Epsom, it's hard to see anything in the race that would go past her. She has proven stamina, the ground will be to her liking, she has had ample days of rest and connections are airing positive and confident vibes. It's is hard to find any negative, if any; unless it's a ring-rusty Dettori coming back from injury that is the hope of the naysayers. I actually think she will be carrying the Italian to the finish. She only has to reproduce near her Epsom form to bag this and I think she will.

Caravaggio towers over the sprinting field in the July Cup. I try not to get swept in the hype that so often accompanies Ballydoyle horses but this son of Scat Daddy is really a bullet speedster. I penned before that his win at Royal Ascot was just visually amazing; he produced a stunning turn of foot to get the better of a really good sprinter in Harry Angel. He will beat the Godolphin flag bearer again. This time though he will have to contend with battle-hardened older types in the likes of Limato and The Tin Man. The fact that he will be dispensed of weight relative to the latter, gives him a big advantage. Caravaggio looks set to add to his remarkable trophy collection yet again.


Win: Caravaggio, Enable

Friday, July 7, 2017

Coral-Eclipse Stakes - Classic Generation to the test

The Coral-Eclipse is the first serious clash between the Classic generation and the older brigade at the intermediate distance of 10 furlongs. This is a race where this year's 3-year olds can confirm themselves as a very solid bunch. It is just too bad that the creme de la creme of the older division will not be there; there will be no Minding, no Jack Hobbs, no Almanzor to name the least. I thus expect a 3-year old to rule this and the three obvious from the list are Barney Roy, Eminent and Cliff of Moher.

Barney Roy is undoubtedly a top-class miler. He avenged his only loss in 4 outings by convincingly beating Churchill (and a bunch of others) at Royal Ascot. They way he has finished his races suggests that a mile and a quarter will not be too much of a stretch for him. While he is very much on the upgrade, his main challenge is to remain relaxed; he will need to in order to see out the distance. On his best form, he is the horse to beat.

Eminent ran very well in finishing 4th in the Derby and the mile and a quarter looks his optimum distance. While he got beaten in both British Classics, he was not disgraced by any means. He is a very good 3-year old which I believe will run a big race on Saturday.

Cliff of Moher hit the front in the Derby only to touched off by Wings of Eagle in the final strides. This prompted the Ballydoyle connections and many to conclude that he did not fully see out the full mile of a half of Epsom. I have my reservations on that; if he had come out on top, chances are that mostly everyone would have said he is a proper 12 furlong horse. I think he is and he just got outgunned by a better out-and-out stayer on the day. I am not convinced the Coral-Eclipse distance is his best one.

From the older generation, mention goes to Ulysses who ran a respectable race at Ascot but does not seem to have the class to be amongst the very top. I see it as a battle between Barney Roy and Eminent, with a slight preference going to the former.


Win: Barney Roy
Place: Eminent