Royal Ascot 2018 - Day 3

To me, this year's Gold Cup is the highlight race of Royal Ascot. No offence to Big Orange, but I've waiting for a match between Order of St George and Vazirabad for a long time. With the new stayer prince Stradivarius set to challenge these 2 perennial kings of the staying division, we are going to be treated to a truly royal race.

Order of St George needs no introduction. He has been the best stayer running in Ireland and Britain for the past years. He was a rather unlucky loser to Big Orange in last year's race but his reputation is as big as Yeats, his Ballydoyle predecessor and winner of 4 Gold Cups. The son of Galileo is always formidable in any top race beyond a mile and a half. One thing that concerns me is his last race where the post-race comments had him winning cosily, yet it was only less than a length comfy. Connections seemed elated with the win but his win over Twilight Payment was not visually impressive although the rest of the field were 8 lengths adrift of the pair. There is ground to believe that Order of St George might have lost a step as he is now aged 6.

Vazirabad is the king of the staying division in France. As well as Dubai, since he's won their Gold Cup 3 times. It seems weird but it will be his first appearance in the Ascot Gold Cup. How he acts on the track will play a big part in his chances. This son of Manduro is blessed with stamina as well as a good turn of foot. I believe he has a massive chance if he adapts to this new environment and since he has been a good traveller to Dubai, there is every chance that he will be fine with the conditions on the day.

Stradivarius is the new staying champion in waiting. The only concern regarding this son of Sea The Stars is the distance but the way he has been progressing suggests that is within his compass. This is a winner of the Queen's Vase, Goodwood Cup and Yorkshire Cup. His last win in the latter was overly impressive and he will enter this race in peak form. The Gold Cup should be his within the next few years, and the big question is whether he is good enough to take the crown this year.

This is going to be a spectacular race and the winner should come from one of the three. Order of St George is a warm favourite but I believe he is vulnerable and at current prices, he should be taken on or laid. There should not be much between the other two and with push comes to shove, I give preference to Stradivarius because he has won at Ascot before and trainer John Gosden should have him primed for this.


Win: Stradivarius

Royal Ascot 2018 - Day 1

Royal Ascot is the meeting of the year for many and if the entries on the 4 days are anything to go by, it should be filled with memories to come.

The Queen Anne Stakes starts proceedings with the older generation fighting over a mile. The distance should be on the sharp side for Benbatl who makes his return after this Dubai exploits. The Godolphin representative is best over a further furlong and I suspect he will lack the speed require to land this. Rhododendron from Ballydoyle won the Lockinge and should be in the whereabouts again, particularly that she will enjoy her filly allowance against the boys. But it is Recoletos from France that seems to hold the aces for this race. The son of Whipper is two-for-two this year and seems to be thriving on the shorter than middle-distances in which he had been running in prior years. The French don't usually cross the channel unless they have a fighting chance and the quick ground and master rider Peslier could very well steer Recoletos to good effect.

The King's Stand Stakes will be the race of the whole meeting for many as it will pit super sprinters Battaash against Lady Aurelia; they met once before last year in a race where it was Martha who prevailed by nailing the US star on the wire. Battaash was a no-show on that day, possibly due to pre-race antics. The son of Dark Angel will have to be at this best behaviour to have any chance against Lady Aurelia who's won at Royal Ascot in spectacular style for the past 2 seasons. It is really a penalty kick between the two.

The St James' Palace Stakes looks to be a competitive affair regrouping quite a few top milers from the Classic generation. The favourite is Without Parole, an unbeaten son of Frankel in 3 starts. His win on fast ground on his seasonal debut was visually impressive and he should be able to give a good account in similar conditions. Wootton is held in high regard from the Godolphin base in France but his reputation was somewhat dented when he finished a close-up forth in the French Guineas although he had every chance to pounce in that race. He has a big race in him, I believe. But the one with the best from going into this race is Tip Two Win who came out a gallant second to Saxon Warrior in the 2000 Guineas. This son of Dark Angel has never been out of the first 3 in 8 races and should be at the finish if he replicates his Newmarket form.

Win: Tip Two Win, Recoletos

Justify-cation for a Triple Crown?

All eyes in the racing world will converge to Belmont Park on Saturday to witness Justify's attempt at landing the Triple Crown. The unbeaten son of Scat Daddy will try to emulate American Pharoah and affirm his name among the other legends of American racing. Can he do it?

The connections are certainly bullish. Thriving is the common word coming from Baffert, the trainer, to describe the status of Justify. Baffert, the same trainer of American Pharaoh at that. But there should be a few causes for concern.

The main one is how the son of Scat Daddy will handle the mile and a half. This distance has been the graveyard for many Triple Crown aspirants. The field has a few gallopers for which the distance will suit better. Think Hofburg, Blended Citizen, Free Drop Billy. The most likely scenario is that those closers will try to wear Justify down in the last quarter mile of the race. How he will respond will determine the race.

The other question is how much the Preakness took out of Justify. That was his hardest race to date as Good Magic gave him a good run for his money for all but the last 100 yards of the race. Once Good Magic was taken care of, Justify had to withhold the assaults of Bravazo and Tenfold and certainly the finishing post came much as a relief. It would not be stretching to think that 3 weeks rest might not be enough to overcome the exertions at Pimlico.

But Justify might just be a superior horse that can overcome all these concerns. The field is deep but not overly talented. Somehow, if there is an all-out closer that will relish the gruelling distance, then the favourite might be vulnerable towards the end. The comparison line I can come closest to is Smarty Jones, who ultimately failed to land the Triple Crown after going to Belmont undefeated. He had an easy Kentucky Derby and won the Preakness in a canter. He looked to win the Belmont from far way out but was gunned down in the closing stages by a true middle-distance runner named Birdstone, losing his only race in the process. Justify had a relatively easy Derby, albeit in the slop. He had a hard Preakness, in the slop as well. He will be facing a deeper field including a few with staying pedigrees. So his work is cut out for him to win the Belmont.

If he is a superior or super horse, as Baffert seems to believe, then he should have enough in hand. At current odds, it might be worth taking him as it will only take a horse of the greatest caliber to overcome all the questions above.

Saxon Warrior - An Epsom Derby for Deep Impact

Much has been said about what could bring down Saxon Warrior, worthy favourite of this year's Epsom Derby. He will come out of the jinxed stall 1. He might have too much speed to last the stiff mile and a half of Epsom. And finally some say the ground might be too soft for him.

Bollocks.

The son of Deep Impact has enough speed to extricate himself from an unfavourable position coming off the blocks. Ryan Moore should be able to steer him into a good position. Too much speed because he won the Guineas? For good measure, Camelot and Sea The Stars were fast enough to win at the Classic mile distance and held enough stamina to win at Epsom. Saxon Warrior is yet another fantastic son Deep Impact, one of the best stayers ever to grace the turf. There should be no stamina concerns. Soft ground? He won the Group 2 Beresford Stakes hands and heels on only his second start. Sure he is more formidable on good ground but the Epsom soft ground will hold more fears for rest of the field than Saxon Warrior.

Nothing is assured in a horse race but Saxon Warrior should win the Derby on Saturday because he ticks all the right boxes going into the Epsom test. He has beaten everything thrown at him and there is every indication that he will do so again. It's hard to oppose him.

Roaring Lion is best out of the rest. The way he won the Dante was oh-so impressive. He has been beaten twice by Saxon so far. He is the best horse bar the son of Deep Impact. The distance should suit but the soft ground, although drying out, will not be ideal. Still, I expect the son of Kitten Joy to run his race into a podium finish.

I expect Delano Roosevelt and Knight To Behold to run respectable races and can probably follow the above 2 home.

Win: Saxon Warrior
Place: Roaring Lion