Week-end preview

Here's my predictions for this week-end's round of football matches.

Arsenal v/s QPR. The Gunners are on a 2-game slump in which they have failed to score. Van Persie is being sorely missed. Truth is, they are also missing Walcott and Ox-Chamberlain through injury. A third defeat on the trot will really put pressure on Arsene Wenger. QPR managed to gain a point against Everton last week-end and will be keen to build on that positive result to finally land their first win of the season. I doubt it will happen at the Emirates though. Arsenal should get at least a point from this encounter, and it might be worth going with them for the straight win.

Aston Villa v/s Norwich. Two bad teams capable of the best and worst. Can go either way.

Reading v/s Fulham. I like Fulham as a draw-no-bet here. Martin Jol has a fully-fit squad at his disposal and I see Rodallega and Berbatov able to exploit the weaknesses of the leaky Reading defence.

Stoke v/s Sunderland. This looks to be a low-scoring affair. Stoke are very good at home while Sunderland are being a little bit of a disappointment at the moment. I was expecting Martin O'Neil's men to be higher up the table but for some reason, they are really struggling as a unit. They rode their luck to snatch a draw against Newcastle last week-end. It wouldn't surprise me if Sunderland stole the points here but Stoke definitely hold home advantage.

Wigan v/s West Ham. I believe the hosts are one the value draw-no-bets of the week-end. They have been arguably unlucky recently with points lost at Swansea where they had a controversial tying goal disalloweed, and against Everton where they conceded late after leading twice. So they are clearly knocking at the door, and they will be keen to gain full points against a West Ham team that has exposed form on their travels. Wigan as draw-no-bet is the recommendation.

Man City v/s Swansea. For all their European troubles, Man City are a serious team in the EPL and they will be keen to make amends of their mid-week failures by gunning down Swansea. A straight win for the hosts.

Everton v/s Liverpool. I cannot see Liverpool winning this. Sure, they beat Anzhi in mid-week and have kept a clean sheet for the past 3 games. In fact, I think they will be feeling the effects of their mid-week win since Rogers fielded his first-team. Everton are as good a team this year as they've ever been under Moyes. They already beat Man Utd at home and are playing with full confidence at the moment. They could easily win this game and look safe as a draw-no-bet.

Newcastle v/s West Brom. Expect Ba to score here. He's been off the score sheet for the past few games and he will be keen to exploit a West Brom defence that gives away a lot of shots per game. The Magpies played and won in mid-week with their B team, so they should go all guns blazing against the visitors. A home win is the selection.

Southampton v/s Tottenham. This can go either way as both teams have showed no consistent form whatsoever so far, so will abstain from trying to pick the result.

Chelsea v/s Man Utd. The big one. A 6-point decider really. Chelsea have home advantage and will be keen to pick apart the mediocre Utd defence. They leak badly and Hazard and Mata will certainly be relishing the occasion. Tactically, Chelsea have a great coach in Di Matteo, who understands what it takes to get a result.Ask Barcelona. Man Utd will rely on their strong attacking unit to bail them out again. Rooney and Van Persie will also look to exploit holes in the Chelsea defence that will miss John Terry. This game could very well end up in a draw. If a team were to win it, I think it would be Chelsea, but that's far from a certainty, so I'll abstain here too.

In Germany, I see a win for Bayern Munich. In Spain, I think Barcelona will suffer at Rayo but it's impossible to go against the mighty Catalans unless you're a long punter. Real Madrid are facing a mini-injury crisis at the moment but should be deep enough to garner at least a point during their visit to Mallorca.

Win: Arsenal, Man City, Newcastle, Bayern Munich
Draw-no-bet: Wigan, Everton, Real Madrid

Pantheon of the greats

What a week-end! Every single selection hit, except for hapless Arsenal who managed to go lose at Norwich. Obviously, the main talking point after Saturday was the place of Frankel among the all-time greats. Best horse there has ever been, has been a very popular clamour. There is no right or wrong answer on this one and I stand among those that will fall short of calling him the best ever. He could very well be the best of them all, but it impossible for me to give him that ultimate accolade with absolute confidence or certainty.

Don't get me wrong; Frankel is an unbelievable beast, the likes of which I've never seen before. He's the greatest miler of all time. Better, I consider him the best racehorse to have ever run up to 10 furlongs. If there was any match race from 8 to10 furlongs and I could select any horse, it would be him. He's the most dominant horse that has ever run at those distances. He's proved it by beating champions of the caliber of Canford Cliffs, Excelebration, and Cirrus des Aigles. He put anything that opposed him to submission.

But he hasn't run at 12 furlongs, the distance of reference for the best of the best, in my opinion. This is the distance of the Derbies, of the most-prestigious Arc, of the King George. This is the distance that tells the difference in class between the great and the immortal ones. The awesome Dubai Millenium lost his invincibility on his Derby attempt, a lack of stamina that was the cause of his only defeat. This is the distance that some mighty champions of Montjeu toyed with the their challengers. This is the distance that made the legends of Dancing Brave, Ribot, Deep Impact, Zarkava, Sea Bird, Nijinski, to name a few.

Frankel did not attempt that mythical distance, and the travesty of it all, is that he seemed to have the pedigree, being a son of Galileo. Had he won a high-caliber Group 1 at 12 furlongs, he would be my undisputed champion of all time. Would he have flopped like Dubai Millenium? Or would he have been as dominant as he proved at shorter distances? Have would he have reacted on the Longchamp straight with Ribot working on his inside and Deep Impact, Zarkava and Dancing Brave breathing down his neck with their dazzling finish, for the ultimate Arc? Most probably, he would have trounced all of them, but alas, he has no form to prove it. On similar lines, Black Caviar is possibly the greatest sprinter of all time, but she's just that, a sprinter; not the greatest racehorse there has been.

Not many champions end their career undefeated. The mystique behind Frankel is that he can not only boast he never got beaten, but he destroyed almost any horse that crossed his path. Such was his dominance. He's racing's version of Lionel Messi; he won everything there is to win while beating every record, except winning the World Cup. Can he be considered the greatest?

There has never been a certainty like Frankel in race punting, at least not in these times. He will be missed. He's the benchmark against which all future milers and 10-furlong performers will be gauged. I believe he will stay thus for a long long time. Frankel was a destroyer, possibly not the greatest racehorse, but certainly the most dominant thoroughbred there has been.

A last one for Frankel

This week-end is all about Frankel's last race and nothing has changed from my previous assessment that he will end his career in a blaze of glory to which he is so accustomed. Let the ground be worse than very soft, let the greatest foe he will have encountered come from France, let the naysayers mention the unlucky-bound 13th run; I think he will prevail at the end. I might be wrong. American fans know all about Zenyatta and her heart-breaking last race. His odds are short, yet look generous. I don't think he will destroy Cirrus; on good ground, maybe. But on heavy ground, the gap might be well short of the ocean-wide margins he usually leaves in his wake. Frankel to win, Cirrus for the placing; there's no certainty in racing particularly on heavy terrain, but this 1-2 looks to be the play to go for.

League football is back after the usual but not-so-interesting international World Cup qualifiers. There's always the danger that teams don't show up in optimum or true form after such a break because of player fatigue, missed trainings and preparation time etc, so there are always some nuggets that may prop up here and there.

Fulham v/s Villa. This is one of the best shouts of the week-end for a Home win. The Cottagers are very good at home and will have extra ammunition with the return of striker Berbatov from injury.

Liverpool v/s Reading. Liverpool are a better team than what their results suggest. I expect them to come blazing against the sorry visitors. Suarez could have a great scoring game here provided he's well rested from his trip from South America. Straight home win.

Man Utd v/s Stoke. It is no secret that Stoke play for the goalless draw away from home. They might even eke out an odd goal. If an out-of-sorts Man Utd shows up, like the one that got beat by Tottenham a few weeks, then Stoke have a chance for a draw. Orelse it should be another home win. Given that they have lost 2 games already, Sir Alex will be keen to have his team pumped up here for full points, so it might be worth going for the straight home win.

Swansea v/s Wigan. This can go either way. Both teams are two-faced and are capable of the best and worst.

West Brom v/s Man City. If it were not for its current injury woes, I would have given WBA a good chance to snatch a point here. Although they are still a strong team, City seem to have to labor hard to get the 3 points on their travels. They are not yet dominant. It would hardly be any surprise if the Citizens won this late as the hosts will certainly not hand it to them.

West Ham v/s Southampton. Can go either way. If I were to speculate, the hosts as draw-no-bet will be the safest way to go.

Norwich v/s Arsenal. The Gunners look to be a good draw-no-bet proposition here. Norwich has a leaky defence which the visitors will be keen to exploit. Arsenal have their defensive lapses of their own and are not sure to come out of the game with a clean sheat. They should prevail or come up with a draw in the end though.

Sunderland v/s Newcastle. I favour Sunderland slightly for this North East derby, only because of their home advantage. Sunderland looks good value as a draw-no-bet.

QPR v/s Everton. This could be the springboard for Mark Hughes' men to finally get out of their losing funk. Everton is not to be dismissed lightly and they are capable of giving a game to any team in the league on their best day. Long-shot punters should consider QPR as a serious draw-no-bet selection, but they do not offer enough guarantees for me to consider them a safe punt. Better to avoid this match.

In Spain, I see home wins for Malaga and Real Madrid, while Valencia and Barcelona look solid draw-no-bet selections.


Win: Frankel, Man Utd, Real Madrid, Malaga, Liverpool, Fulham
Place: Cirrus des Aigles
Exacta: Frankel/Cirrus des Aigles
Draw-no-bet: Valencia, Barcelona, Sunderland, Arsenal, West Ham

Pile on Frankel and Cirrus

This week leads up to Saturday's Champions Day racing at Ascot, the one-year-old scheme devised to rival the Breeders Cup in the US. The occasion will be momentous with Frankel set to run his last race in the Qipco Champion Stakes. Just crunching the race at the moment and clearly there are only 3 names to retain from the 8-horse field; the Invincible Frankel himself, the French superstar Cirrus des Aigles and Nathaniel, one of the best middle-distance horses around and who is the closest to have come to going toe-to-toe with Frankel, on their debut.

I hope there's lots of rain and the ground is sticky muddy on race day. That's the only way to get decent odds on Frankel. Heavy conditions will suit Cirrus to perfection. This will give hope to the French raiding party supporters. It might even give hope to Nathaniel supporters. It will dampen the Frankel camp as he's not proven on too soft ground . But no matter how bottomless the ground, I have hardly any doubt that he will win. He's a stone clear of the others at the weights and I think he is the only one who can beat himself. Cirrus is deservedly the second highest-rated horse in training but he's no Frankel.

I am no fan of the ante-post market, but if they are going to go to post, to me, Frankel is a sure win and Cirrus is a sure Place. Once the markets open, any combo involving these 2, seems to me the way to go.

Glorious in defeat

From a punting viewpoint, the Arc delivered aplenty with Orfevre easily hitting the Placings at unbelievably generous odds of 3/1. Obviously, from a sporting position, like many others, I would have loved it if he won it all. The race can be replayed time and again and how he lost the race would still be beyond anyone's comprehension. The start of the last straight was a sight to behold as he effortlessly stormed past some of the best middle-distance horses Europe had on offer. I was thinking of another demolition a la Danedream. Better, I was thinking that Frankel was right to stay home. Almost immediately, it unfolded into a nightmare as he idled and hit the rails as Solemia caught him on. World beater turned unlucky second.

Solemia ran the race of the life and deserves more credit than what she's getting, even though it will always be more the race that Orfevre lost and not the race she won. What he showed was he is a genius, albeit a flawed genius. If I hinted Camelot was, on talent, the best horse going in the race, I was wrong. Orfevre will destroy this field anytime if he finds a way to settle on these quirks. What a run from the impossible post position of 18 on a heavy sticky ground he'd never run before. I cannot see how his rider Soumillon can be faulted. He rode the perfect copybook race; he had the whip in the right hand in the straight. His ride deviated and idled through no fault of his.

Rarely does a horse come out of a lost race with his reputation enhanced. Orfevre is now a name that will warrant attention, not only within the shores of Japan. It looks improbable but Soumillon got tongues wagging when he mentioned an encounter with Frankel on British Champions Day. Frankel, Cirrus des Aigles, Orfevre. That would be something. What was interesting, if not intriguing, is Soumillon's assessment in the aftermath of Sunday's defeat that Orfevre was the best horse he'd ever ridden. Whether said in the heat of the moment or not, but it gives a reference point to Orfevre's exceptional talent; better than Dalakhani, better than Zarkava? On Sunday, we got oh-so-close to the realm of fantasy land.

Camelot, meet Orfevre

My favourite race of the year: the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in Longchamp is my idea of the greatest race in the world. The legends of the turf have won it and the best horse almost always wins it.

This year's race has been marred by late defections of some leading fancies; title holder Danedream tragically won't be there through no fault of her own, Nathaniel spiked a fever at an unfortunate time, Snow Fairy is out of the season injured. And the mighty Frankel (or more so his connections) opted not to venture on the stamina-sapping 12 furlongs;

The race will still regroup some high-caliber horses, 4 of which seem clear-cut above the rest; Camelot, Orfevre, Saonois and Shareta. I don't think the winner will be outside this quartet.

Camelot failed to win the Triple Crown although he did finish a honourable second in the St Leger. Whether he is the super horse billed by his connections, remains to be seen. His defeat somewhat lowered his colors and reputation that was made of him. He's still a high-class horse that has won the Epsom and Irish Derbies, not forgetting the 2000 Guineas. He is the best 3-year old of the race. There are a lot of positives going for him. He will be ridden by Dettori, he will have a weight allowance against the older generation, and he's by super 12-furlong-sire Montjeu. The only issue I see is how well he's recuperated from his St Leger exertions. It is commonly acknowledged that the great Nijinski got beaten in the Arc because he was still feeling the ill-effects of the Doncaster Classic. There are only 3 weeks separating the 2 races and there is no doubt that the small recuperation time can be taxing, particularly when facing a strong Arc contingent. This is the question mark regarding Camelot; how fit and rested will he be for the race? If he is 100%, he will win orelse he'll be in the placings.

Orfevre, Japanese superstar, maybe not on the same level as Deep Impact, but the best to grace Longchamp since the Sunday Silence wonder horse. He won this trial when not fully wound up a few weeks ago and indications are that he's improved a bunch and will be in top form. He's clearly class, he will be ridden by Soumillon and distance will suit. He looks prime to run a huge race. He should be in the first 3, like Camelot.

Saonois is the best French 3-year old and winner of the French Derby. He was impressive in winning the Prix Niel, considered the main trial for the Arc. He produced an instant acceleration in the last metres of the race after having been held boxed in the straight. Not many other horses would have been able to do that. Saonois must be respected as many French 3-year old colts have shown their mettle in the race over the years.

Shareta is the best remaining filly in the race after the defections of Snow Fairy and Danedream. She was a surprise second last year and she seems even better this year. She won the Prix Vermeille in good style and any reproduction of that form should see her play a major role. She has got a great cruising speed and her ability to stay close to the pace could put her in clear daylight in the straight and not be reached . If she's on song, she could strike strike big for the Aga Khan.

I think Camelot and Orfevre have to be in any trifecta. This could be the day that Japan finally lands the race that it wants most to win. It won the Dubai World Cup, it won the Melbourne Cup, but this is the trophy that it really wants; for prestige, for the record books and posterity. I don't know if it will happen, but I sure will be rooting for Orfevre to achieve what no other Japanese horse has done in the history of the race. May the Sun rise on Arc Day!


Place: Camelot, Orfevre

Clutch and Choke

A week-end with some freakish results with Arsenal, Man Utd and QPR all gunned down at home. Sunderland, Real and Stoke won as expected and Fulham's +1 handicap was good for void in their brave 2-1 defeat against Man City.

The headlines of the week-end were without doubt the Miracle at Medinah Chicago where the European Ryder Cup team produced the greatest come-back ever on Sunday in defeating the US team and thereby retaining the Cup. What sweet revenge it was for Europe, especially team captain Olazabal, as it washed away the tears of Brookline 1999 when the US produced a come-back of their own amidst displays of unsportsmanlike conduct to win the Cup. What an amazing clutch player Europe has found in Ian Poulter who won all his 4 matches and started the inspiration for his teammates late Saturday when he birdied the last 5 holes of his foursome match to give an almost-out Europe some glimmer of hope. The US choked on the final day but it is really a case of the Europeans being the best whenever they are playing their best. I was saying in my previous blog that this European team had nothing to envy from their US counterparts; namely because on an individual basis, they are really better, more talented and more driven.

The countdown to this week is all about the Arc on Sunday and the organizers must be going nuts at the moment. Nathaniel has fallen sick and won't be going. Danedream as well will miss defending her title as she's suddenly stuck in quarantine following a disease outbreak at her stay in Cologne. Talk about freakish timing. Add to this the absence of Snow Fairy, Valyra, Frankel and others and you think that this year's race will be devoid of many of the world's best middle-distance runners. But it becomes great from a punting point of view, I think. At this point, my sight is set on the Japanese superstar Orfevre, the impressive Vermeille winner Shareta, and should he start, Camelot. It could be that other connections decide to supplement their horses in light of so many high-profile defects, we'll see.

Tonight's games in the Champions League look tight. I think Man Utd are in for a rude travel to Cluj. They might still win it because of their potent offense but they are very liable to concede goals with their porous defence. Anytime Johnny Evans is starting with Rio Ferdinand, you can expect some torrid moments in the Utd penalty area, as Tottenham showed over the week-end.

Chelsea should win at Nordsjaellan in Denmark, they are a confident Win selection. Galatasaray will also look to bag all 3 points at home to Poruguese Braga. The hosts should win this. I also like Valencia's chances against France's Lille. It looks worth to go for a straight Valencia win as well here.

Win: Chelsea, Valencia, Galatasaray

Week-end preview

A jam-packed week-end of football and golf is looming on the horizon. The Ryder Cup is under-way and based on the odds, Europe are under-dogs. Their current odds look somewhat appealing considering that player-to-player, they don't have anything to envy to the Americans. If the same tournament were to be staged in Europe, it's the same European team that would have started favourites. Home crowds bring in a huge advantage. My feeling is that Europe will retain the Cup but it's just me making a judgement call; there are no certainties and the resullt can really go either way.

Let's get to the week-end's matches.

Arsenal v/s Chelsea. The big London Derby with 2 teams in good form. Got to go with the home advantage of the Gunners here; Arsene's team is getting more confident with every game and Santi Cazorla is an absolute gem of a playmaker. With the upcoming return in a few weeks of Wilshere, the Gunners should get stronger on the field and they just need to avoid getting into a considerable win-less streak, the like of which has wreaked havoc on their title hopes in recent years. They will oppose a Chelsea team whose mental strength will be tested given the weekly distraction of captain Terry's trial and guilty verdict in Anton Ferdinand's race case. I think Chelsea got somehow lucky to snatch victory last week at the expense of Stoke and they would do well to ride their luck again. I think Arsenal is a great draw-no-bet selection.

Fulham v/s Man City. The Cottagers are very good at home and City look vulnerable at the moment. This could be the best time to face the defending champions. Unfortunately for the hosts, they will be missing Berbatov who's brought their attack to life. Man City still have quality but it might pay to side with Fulham with +1 goal Handicap since should City win, it would be by the strict minimum.

Everton v/s Southampton. The Toffees look the banker of the week-end. They have been consistent this year and can hold their own at home against any team, as Man Utd found out. I think Soton can at most hope for a point here, but it should end up in a home win really.

Reading v/s Newcastle. Much of Newcaste's chances will rest on the scoring prowess of striker Ba. Will Pardew finally have full confidence in starting him? I am not sure what is going on behind the scenes at St James Park, but for me Ba is one of the premier strikers of the league and it doesn't make much sense that Cisse starts in front of him. This match is best avoided as the result can go any way.

Stoke v/s Swansea. Great chance for Stoke to get 3 points here against a struggling Swansea team. After having started strong, Laudrup's men have suffered 2 bad defeats in which they failed to score. It doesn't get any easier going to Stoke who have an enviable record at home. A draw-no-bet on the Potters looks safe.

Sunderland v/s Wigan. This should be the Cats' first win of the season. They have been arguably unlucky in drawing a couple of their past games, conceding goals in the last minutes. I will go for the outright win for the hosts.

Norwich v/s Liverpool. This game is too close to call. The Canaries can really prolong Liverpool's misery and I have the feeling if this game ends in a winner, it will be by the minimum margin. To avoid.

Man Utd v/s Tottenham. This looks set to pit 2 attacking-minded teams, so goals could be galore. Last year, AVB's Chelsea were thrased 3-1 at Old Trafford. I think the result could very well be similar again; it's hard to see Spurs going to snatch a win on this travel. Man Utd looks a good draw-no-bet.

Aston Villa v/s West Brom. Although they went to win at the Etihaad over the week, I still have reservations about this Villa team. West Brom are poor travellers. Can go either way this one.

QPR v/s West Ham. If the hosts were not missing their centre-halfs, I would have given them a great chance. With their current injuries, it's safer to go draw-no-bet with them.

Real Madrid v/s Deportivo. Straight win for Ronaldo and co, who should embark on a good winning streak after their much-publicized recent stumbles.


Win: Sunderland, Real Madrid
Draw-no-bet: Arsenal, Stoke, Man Utd, QPR
Handicap +1: Fulham

Mark Hasley got it right

Relatively good week-end with 5 winners, 2 voids and 1 loser out of 8 selections. Barcelona, Porto, Chelsea, Southampton, Sunderland (+1 Handicap) won, Man City and Liverpool (+1 handicap) games voided but Swansea was thrashed at home to Everton.

On the overall 90 minutes, I think everyone agrees that Liverpool deserved to get at least a point out of the game. As expected, they wanted to win that game badly and were better for the most part against their arch-rivals. The Kops and many others feel aggrieved that referee Halsey cost the hosts the game on 2 controversial decisions; the first one regarding the sending off of Shelvey and the second one the penalty awarded at the end of the match. In my previous post my selection was Livepool, yet I have no qualms about the referee's decisions on both cases; Mark Halsey was right.

Shelvey goes in two-footed in his challenge with Evans. Remember the same Evans went two-footed in an Old Trafford game last year and was rightly dismissed.The action is a dangerous one, the contact is made, the rashness has to be cautioned with an automatic red card. In any other league other than EPL, people would not even be discussing this decision. Some are questioning the color of the card because of the impact on the match; it does not matter if it is a match of the highest importance or a normal League match; two-footed tackles, be it without intent to injure, are automatic red cards.

The penalty is questionable only when viewed on replay or slow motion. It is clear that on his retreat, Glen Johnson somehow unbalances Valencia. It is true that the Ecuadorian goes to the ground tamely but the England defender clearly clips him, however light the trip is. The referee does not have the benefit of replay to see how much contact has been made or how well Valencia reacts to the play. Once he sees that the contact, hence foul, has been made, he has to call the penalty. Even on replay, the hardest Kop fan must admit that there have been worse calls for a penalty. Some football analysts have called for referees to have access to tv replays to overrule such kinds of decisions. I welcome that approach, but even in that case, the penalty would have stood. Take it from the NFL where a team has a number of chances during a match to challenge a referee-ing call. If the referees cannot conclusively come to a different decision than the call they made, based on tv replays etc, in 1 minute, their decision stands. The penalty decision would have stood at Anfield because none of the replays conclusively showed beyond any doubt that Valencia went to the ground by himself.

Tough luck Liverpool or anti-Man Utd fans (from what I've seen, there are a lot of them among so-called tv analysts!), Mark Hasley was spot on during these controversial moments that turned the match upside down. I can say it even if it is clear that a favourable result for Liverpool would have been better for my coffers.

Week-end preview

Not a great second night of UCL on Wednesday as only Barcelona and Man Utd won, Braga and Lille lost at home and Benfica drew with Celtic. From the results of the week's UCL matches, it certainly looks like there are hardly any minnows anymore and that the gap between the usual elite teams and small teams is getting smaller every year. Even Barcelona had to dig deep to overcome Spartak Moscow.

Here we go for a preview of some of the week-end's matches.

Swansea v/s Everton. I like the hosts here. They should have a few missing players from last week back and I expect them to give a better showing. They can carve out the most persistent of opponents at home and should either bag 1 or 3 points here. Swansea is a draw-no-bet.

Chelsea v/s Stoke. Again, this will either go to the hosts or a draw. Chelsea have tied with Juventus in mid-week and have a strong enough squad to cope with the short rest. Stoke are no push-overs and it will be interesting to see what part Michael Owen plays for them during the season. I don't fancy many goals in this one and at current odds, Chelsea are a good draw-no-bet.

Southampton v/s Villa. It all depends what kind of Southampton team that will show up. The one that almost tied the Manchester teams, or the one that was very tame at Arsenal and Wigan. This is a perfect opportunity for the Saints to get their first points on the counter as Villa looks to be one of the 5 weakest teams in this league, in my estimate. It might be rewarding to be adventurous here and have the hosts at least as a draw-no-bet. I see them getting at least a point out of this encounter.

West Ham v/s Sunderland. This can go either way but I'm tempted to go for Sunderland with a +1 goal Handicap. The Hammers are good at home under Sam Allardyce but it will be tough for them to put a few by Martin O'Neil's organized defence. So +1 for the Cats is my choice here.

Liverpool v/s Man Utd. Both have played in mid-week although the Kops played their second team. I think they will be primed for this. They need to get their campaign started with a win and what better occasion than beating Man Utd and commemorating the Hillsborough tragedy. Obviously, it's always a risk going against Man Utd, but I see value in Liverpool either as a draw-no-bet or +1 goal handicap. Both offer good value at current odds.

Man City v/s Arsenal. This is the first serious test for the Gunners. Much has been said about their defence having conceded only 1 goal so far, but it remains how it can cope with the big guns of City. The latter are coming off a tough loss to Real Madrid but they have such a strong squad that they will not feel the ill-effects of that defeat. It's hard to see the hosts losing this, so I'll go draw-no-bet with them as well.

The Win certainties for the week-ends are Barcelona and Porto.

Win: Barcelona, Porto
Draw-no-bet: Man City, Southampton, Swansea, Chelsea
Handicap +1: Sunderland, Liverpool

UCL Part 2

Man City was oh-so-close to win at the Bernabeu and instead were left empty-handed. The +1 goal Handicap looked good until Ronaldo's injury-time goal voided it. In reality, Real Madrid deserved to win the game by a mile. They were dangerous from start to finish and although they conceded 2 goals, they must be given credit for coming back each time. Much has been said about their lack of conviction and commitment in their previous matches but there was none of that yesterday. At their best, they are still the second-best team in the world behind Barcelona.

Today's matches look a little more predictable. Man Utd will either win or draw against Galatasaray; I cannot see them lose this game. The Turks are no push-overs, being unbeaten in their domestic league and have a very manager in Tehrim. However, I expect the host to unleash the big runs in an attempt to erase last year's debacle when they failed to go by the preliminary stage. Man Utd should win, or at worst come out with a draw, so they are a draw-no-bet selection.

Same prediction for Braga who will host Cluj. The Portuguese have a great home record and they will want to get maximum points from this encounter with the outsiders of the group.

Barcelona should win against Spartak Moscow and I like Lille as a draw-no-bet against Borisov. Celtic is in for a difficult night against Benfica at Hampden Park. I've said it before, the Scottish league is very poor and it got even poorer with the demotion of Rangers. Celtic will battle to get something out of the game, but it would not be surprising if Benfica won or at least comes away with a draw from their trip.


Win: Barcelona
Draw-no-bet: Man Utd, Braga, Lille, Benfica

Heavyweight clash

So it starts today, the quest for pinnacle of European glory, the Champions League. And it does not get any better than this with the match-up between the champions of Spain and England. It's Real Madrid v/s Man City, Ronaldo v/s Tevez, Mourinho v/s Mancini; 2 teams loaded with superstars that can change the game with a moment of brilliance.

It is crisis time in Madrid; the Los Blancos are struggling, having been beaten again over the week-end. Their league title hopes are clinging by a thread already. Mourinho admits that at the present, he has 'no team'. Their last match against Stoke showed that Man City are close to good form. They had some good chances to win the match and could arguably have deserved the 3 points. So, Mancini and his troops go to the Bernabeu with confidence and will be well aware of the current struggles of the home side. This is the perfect time to face Mourinho's men in a most difficult group. I think Man City +1 goal Handicap is good value at the exchanges.

Handicap +1: Man City

Black-type performers

Fantastic week-end of sports that was. Liverpool were lucky to draw with Sunderland while Stoke's +1 Handicap against Man City proved a nice winner. In racing, were in not for the exploits of outsider Encke, Camelot and Michelangelo would have provided with a very good return. As it is, Camelot did not win but a Placed Michelangelo was good enough to bring the bacon home.

It was an exquisite week-end of racing really. Godolphin again played the spoils to the ambitions of Coolmore by denying Camelot of the Triple Crown. The son of Montjeu stayed on but just lacked the finishing kick to reach his conqueror at the finish. It was another big-race win for jockey Barzalona who seems to have a knack of landing big-money races and Classics. It will be interesting if Camelot is given the green light for the Arc.

Speaking of the prestigious race, Orfevre, the Japanese superstar labored to win the Prix Foy, one of the major prep races. While many were left disappointed with his workmanlike win, he did beat a high-class colt in Meandre. It was also his first race after a long layoff. I think he's a genuine Arc contender; whether he wins it or not will depend on a load of factors. But he certainly looks the most talented Japanese representative after Deep Impact.

Shareta won the Prix Vermeille impressively by dispatching a high-class field and on that form, must be given a leading chance for the October show-piece. She came out second last year to Danedream and she seems to be hitting top form at the right moment again. She is definitely the best representative from the Aga Khan contingent.

Moonlight Cloud beat Farrh in the Prix Moulin. Freddy Head's filly is just an a tough sort that runs her heart out every time. She might be the only lateral link between Frankel and Black Caviar! She came a head off second to the Australian superstar at Royal Ascot, but beat Farrh in turn who's been trounced many lengths a couple of times by Frankel. I cannot wait for the next run from the French filly because she's among the best from 6 furlongs to a mile.

The Woodbine Mile on Canadian soil saw Wise Dan from the US stroll to a comfortable win over some good European sorts such as Cityscape. Obviously, it is widely agreed that Europeans are better than the US-trained ones on turf but this son of Wiseman Ferry could prove to be the exception come the Breeders Cup Mile in November. Wise Dan is by far the best miler from the US and unless Excelebration or Moonlight Cloud make the trip to Santa Anita, the race could be a shoe-in for the US champion.

This week is all about the 1st round of the Champions League and there are quite a few interesting match-ups on the go. I'll get to some previews tomorrow.

EPL value selections

Just a quick couple of selections of the week-end EPL matches, which I believe could be very rewarding here.

Sunderland v/s Liverpool. This is the value match of the week-end. I like Sunderland's chances here. I think they are an ideal draw-no-bet as I cannot see them lose this match at home. Liverpool are toiling and I expect them to struggle against Martin O'Neill's side.

Stoke v/s Man City. I expect Stoke to give Mancini's men a run for their money. Stoke have a great record at home and are always tough to break down. City are not going full-steam yet and will have an eye on their upcoming Champions League game next Tuesday. The CL is their priority this year and it would not be surprising if Mancini did not field his strongest team against the Potters. At current odds, I very much like the host team with a +1.0 goal Handicap.


Draw-no-bet: Sunderland
Handicap +1: Stoke

St Leger 2012 Preview

This week-end looks loaded, the highlight of which might be the history-in-the-making of Camelot who will attempt to complete the Triple Crown of British racing. In any ordinary year, this would have been the major talking point of the racing community and unbeaten Ballydoyle superstar would have drawn comparisons with the greatest to have graced the turf, among the likes of Nijinski, Mill Reef and Brigadier Gerard. But understandably, with his spectacular exploits, it is Frankel who's magnetized public hearts. A victory on Saturday will give some credence to his growing legion of fans that he deserves to be considered in the same breadth as the Juddmonte superstar and the almighty that have ever raced.

Many pundits agree that only the distance can beat Camelot; i.e, he will win if he stays the 1m6f trip. The way he's won his races, I strongly believe that the extra 2 furlongs from the Derby trip will not cause him any problem. I have no stamina concerns for this son of Montjeu; he should have enough class to run the Doncaster classic fast. The field looks strong and even; here are my views on the other contenders.

Dartford - pacemaker, no chance.

Encke is the Godolphin representative. He looks better suited for the mile and a half, and has not shown enough to be a leading contender here. He will be flattered by a place spot at best.

Guarantee is a winner of 3 out of 4 races from the Highclere connections. This is a big step up in class for this distance winner but it would not be surprising if he got into the placings. If one is looking for a Place long-shot, he's the one, but it's hard to see him past Camelot if the latter runs his race.

Main Sequence is one that the market fancies a lot, but which is a lay for me. He came out second in the Derby and is inferior to Camelot. Given his pedigree, I have strong reservations he's going to last the distance. The layers should pounce on it.

Michelangelo will be ridden by Dettori after being out-preferred by Buick. I believe he's the horse that can cause an upset. He's clearly a progressive high-class colt that will get better with time. He came out a disappointing third in his last race at Goodwood, deterred by the undulations of the course, according to his trainer. After Camelot, he looks to be the best talented horse in the race. I think he's a live Place chance.

From what he's shown so far, Thomas Chippendale is not sure to last the distance. I think he's several pounds behind many of the contenders and will be flattered to be in the first 4 here.

Thoughtworthy, John Gosden's main string, is the full-brother to Lucarno who won this race a few years ago. Distance should not be a problem. He won the Great Volitgeur stakes, the main trial for this race, beating a few of his challengers quite impressively. He must be considered in any exotic, but I personally don't think he'll win.

Ursa Major comes from the Irish shores having won the Irish St Leger trial and will not start beaten. He's not entitled to get the soft conditions on which he's always run on turf. He will have no problem distance-wise but it remains to be seen how much class he's got. The dark horse of the race.

His connections look quietly bullish, his jockey seems level-headed and accomplished enough not to be taken by the stakes at hand. Camelot is no ordinary horse. The conditions look set for him to stamp his name among the all-time greats. It will take an exceptional horse to beat him on Saturday. I don't think there is one besides him in the race, so I think he will win. For the places, Michelangelo looks value at current odds.

Win: Camelot
Place: Michelangelo