EPL and Carling Cup Final preview

Saturday's Carling Cup final will pit 2 teams with an ocean of class between them. Swansea is fighting for an Europa spot in the Premier League while Bradford is plying its trade 3 leagues below in League 2 football. There is no way you can go with Bradford City on this one. Granted, there have been shocks in finals before; just a few years back, Birmingham was on its way to relegation from the EPL and still managed to beat heavily-favoured Arsenal. The realilty is Arsene Wenger has lost more finals than he's won, so it was not a shock of cataclysmic proportions.

Here we have a Swansea team led by an upcoming manager in Laudrup, who will be keen to get the first major trophy of this fledging managerial career. They boast in the ranks one of the top strikers in the EPL today in Michu, who's been one of the revelations of the year. The welsh club are one of select sides, besides the usual top teams, that play good incisive football, that will create problems to any side they encounter.

The reality for Bradford is to try barricade its box and desperately rely on counter-attacks for a deadly goal or make the match last till the lottery of penalties. That would be their best chance of lifting the trophy against all odds. I don't think it will happen, no matter how nice a Cinderella story that would be. Bradford has a huge task facing this talented Swansea side. Looking at the odds, I will go for Swansea to lift the cup in the end, and although the chances are that they will settle the issue inside regular time, a draw-no-bet on them looks safe as well.

Here are my thoughts on some of the week-end matches in the EPL.

Arsenal v/s Villa. Not surprisingly, Arsenal seem destined to win nothing again. They were booted out of the FA Cup last week, they are nearly down and out in the Champions League against Bayern, and they stand no chance in winning the EPL. The best target they can aim for, like in previous years, is at least a 4th place finish in the EPL that will guarantee them UCL football next season. They will have to be wary of Benteke, the Villa striker that seems to be scoring for fun lately. I don't see many goals in this one mainly because the Gunners are bound to feel the effects of Wednesday's drubbing against the Germans, and the Villains will certainly opt for a defensive display to try to sneak a point out of the contest. Still, it might be good value to opt for Arsenal as a draw-no-bet.

QPR v/s Man Utd. I posed the question before the Real Madrid game on how good or bad were the Red Devils. I think they showed they were a very good team that could rival with the best of them any day. This team can play different types of systems; defensive, counter-attacking, offensive, man-marking, and the thing is that they are always a goal-threat with the likes of Van Persie and Rooney. The talent at the disposal of Sir Alex Ferguson is scary; Nani, Chicharito, Anderson don't even have a spot in the first team at the moment. Harry Redknapp's teams used to cause problems to Man Utd years ago, but it seems that he can't find the magic touch against them lately. The truth is, no matter the big signings since the start of the season, Rangers looks a very unbalanced team with a very suspect team play and even a maestro like Redknapp is having trouble righting the sinking ship. This could be a big night for Van Persie to add to his goal tally. Man Utd are a Win selection and they should go 15 points clear by this match.

Man City v/s Chelsea. The hosts have the advantage of not having had an European match to deal with in mid-week. Chelsea can be considered lucky to have scraped through Sparta Prague in the Europa League but they will definitely be feeling the exertions of that match. Last year's fixture was a tight one where the Citizens managed to win after going a goal down, and there is no reason to believe that the match will not be close again this year. They are still the 2 best teams in the EPL after Man Utd. With the seemingly renewed confidence of the strikers Aguero and Tevez, and with the efficient Dzeko, I believe the hosts have the answer to the Chelsea defence. They are a draw-no-bet selection.


Win Cup: Swansea
Win: Man Utd
Draw-no-bet: Swansea, Arsenal, Man City

Malaga danger for Porto.

Of the two UCL matches under-way in a few hours, it's the Porto v/s Malaga one that looks the more appealing form a punting point of view. These are 2 strong teams that have claims to potentially reach the semi-final stage. Porto is the yardstick in the Portuguese league and are on a 19-game unbeaten streak. Malaga is a solid 4th in La Liga and will pose problems to any side. Their financial problems are well-documented but the players do not seem to find it an issue on the pitch. They are led by a very good coach in Pellegrini. They have fine form going into this match and it would be no surprise if they were to spring an upset. The market odds for a +1 goal handicap looks good value and that is the selection.

+1 Handicap: Malaga

Litmus test for the Red Devils

The Champions League first-leg match between possibly the 2 greatest sides in football gets under-way in a few hours. A few months ago, I would have said that Real Madrid was a banker to go through. They were, and are still I believe, the second best team in the world after Barcelona. Man Utd were, and are still, plagued by a woeful defence that sullies the good names of its predecessors. So, it was a no-brainer a few months back.

Some important variables have since changed and most of it is from Real. They are a club plagued by internal rife that has totally undone them in the domestic league. There is every plausible reason to believe that this could prolong to the Champions League. Mourinho is a great manager but he's shown he's a coach for 2-3 seasons at a club. His expiry date goes fast and it looks that his time in Madrid is up very soon. Worse, it looks like it won't be done with a happy hand-shaking, given the turmoil surrounding the club. All this has had an impact on the football from the team; they are a great team on paper but they've been overly exposed in recent months, showing many glimpses of a side that can easily undo itself. They will have to be at or near their best to overcome Man Utd.

This Man Utd side is unique in that there are so many polar and divided opinions about it. For some, they are a great team, close to the Treble team. For others, they are without any doubt several notches below and any attempt for comparison would be scandalous. This is why, I believe, this encounter with Madrid is the real litmus test. Beat them fairly and they will show they are a truly great side. I've said it before, I  like everything from this Utd team except its defence. I think their strike force and midfield is as strong as it's ever been. Robin Van Persie can score out of nothing and gives them unmatched firepower. The defence is a big concern. It is a mix of the unproven, error-prone and sell-past-date players that will make Christinao Ronaldo looking for a field day. Red Devil fans must hope that the back four can keep the goals-against respectable and let RVP and co do the damage on the other side of the pitch.

This tie is very much up for grabs. There are other story lines regarding Mourinho's good record against Ferguson. That's a fallacy to look at. They encountered twice in the Champions League and although the score is even, it should be the Scot enjoying a 2-0 score. When the Red Devils lost to Porto, they had a valid goal disallowed that would have settled the tie. The Portuguese were also lucky to pounce on a last-minute error by keeper Tim Howard to score the go-through goal. Were it not for that lucky result, Mourinho would not be bragging about his CL record, and who knows, maybe he wouldn't have been given the Chelsea manager role that made his name. The second time they met in the UCL, Man Utd outclassed and dumped Mourinho's Inter Milan team at the quarter final's stage when the Italians were favourites to go through.

I will sit on the fence on this one. Man Utd need to keep it tight at the back to have any chance. We will finally know how good or bad they are. In turmoil or not, Real Madrid are logical favourites to go through on paper. Enjoy the game.

EPL week-end - Man Utd can crush the league

It does not look as though the internationals that took place on Wednesday will have much bearing over this week-end's matches but it will certainly boost each single player that took part in England's beating of Brazil at Wembley (except maybe for blundering Gary Cahill). That was an impressive performance by the Lions and long may live the the midfield axis of Wilshere and Gerrard. Even with Neymar, Brazil is not the Samba team of old. In particular, when you have David Luiz from Chelsea as your rock at the back, there is a reason for Scolari to worry about his defence.

Man Utd can crush the league on Sunday if their main opponents fail to register full points. Everton are the visitors at Old Trafford and the Toffees inflicted their hosts a blow on opening day of the season by beating them by the minimum score at Goodison Park. David Moyes is one of my contenders for Manager of the Year as he's making them perform at a consistently high level since the start of the season. They are led by the mercurial Fellaini who's building himself a great goalscoring ratio for a midfielder. Man Utd rarely lose both home and away matches to the same team and they will want to make sure that the visitors are no exception to the rule. The Red Devils are in good form and seem to have Rooney back to his near-best. My only concern with them is that they are bound to have an eye on next Wednesday's Champions League game at the Bernabeu. It will not be surprising if Sir Alex Ferguson were to alter team selections on Sunday, given that they have a stronghold in the league and that the Champions League still remains a trophy he covets. Although this game looks to be tight, I do not see Man Utd losing this and they look good value as a Win at current market odds. In addition, whether their main rivals win or not on Saturday, I believe in continuing backing them for the title.

Tottenham v/s Newcastle. Spurs got a big blow recently over the injury of their main striker Defoe who's bound to miss at least their next few games. Adebayor is back from the African's Cup but is not certain to feature. Still, they are still potent in attack with the likes of Lennon, Dempsey and Bale. Newcastle go to White Heart lane on the back of 2 consecutive wins to give some breathing air to manager Pardew. They seem to have replaced the loss of Demba Ba with newcomer Sissoko who beat Chelsea on his own last week by scoring 2 goals on his debut. The Magpies are still missing mazy winger Ben Arfa and although they will play with renewed confidence I find it hard to support them against a strong Spurs team. Spurs are a draw-no-bet selection.

Stoke v/s Reading. The hosts are still going through some rotten form and there is no better way for them to get their season on track than playing at home against a lowly team. The Potters showed some of the defensive resilience they have been renowned for in recent years against Arsenal last week although they lost by the minimum score. Reading have gathered points here and there lately thanks to the late heroics of diminutive striker Le Fondre. The rest of the team will have to pitch in big time for their fair record to continue. I don't see a lot of goals in this one but I see this as a great opportunity for Stoke to start a good run.  They are a draw-no-bet selection.

Southampton v/s Man City. The Saints seem to be warming well to new manager Pochettino although the change looked an unfair sacking of ex-manager Nigel Adkins. Southampton have very good form at home and are led by in-form striker Rickie Lambert. They will pose problems for this City side who will be welcoming back their powerhouse midfielder Yaya Toure and possibly their defensive mainstay, captain Kompany. In Toure's absence, David Silva has been running the show but has not been served by the profligacy of their main strikers in front of goal. The problem with the Citizens this season has been their indifferent level of form. They can be outstanding in one game and capable of playing poorly in the next. They have the ammunition to win this game but even if they do, I don't think it will be by much. Looking at the market, Southampton with a 1 goal handicap lead is the selection.

Aston Villa v/s West Ham. How many more chances does Villa need more to finally register a win? It's bound to come one day, and it could very well come against West Ham on Sunday. Striker Benteke is on fire and is Villa's main hope. They cannot afford to lose against the Hammers or else this must surely be the sack for manager Paul Lambert. The Villains are recommended as a strong draw-no-bet against an average West Ham side.

The other games look capable of ending in any result and going for the draw in them might be rewarding.

Win: Man Utd
Draw-no-bet: Tottenham, Stoke, Aston Villa
+1 Goal Handicap: Southampton.

Week-end football, Superbowl

It is always the case that the matches following the end of the transfer window spring their cans of surprises because teams have reinforced or weakened during the flurry of activities that characterize the end of transfer proceedings. In addition, new players that are propelled straight into the first team have to gel immediately; so while it will be interesting to see how the forms of all the teams have been affected, caution is the word for the first batch of matches this week-end.

I cannot see Man Utd losing at Fulham. For one, the hosts will be without their main goal scorer Berbatov, while the Red Devils have all their major weapons, bar Ashley Young, at their disposal. The confident selection is Man Utd as a win.

West Brom look exposed against Tottenham. Striker Odemwingie threw a fit and tried to force a vain transfer to QPR on the last transfer day. Talk about morale hit to the team. Spurs were forced to dig deep last week to earn a point at Norwich and will be better served with a seemingly fully-fit Defoe. I see value backing the visitors as a draw-no-bet on this one.

In La Liga, I like Barcelona on their road trip to Valencia. The team is in excellent form and should have trounced Real Madrid in the first leg of the Spanish Cup on Wednesday. They only put one past the Los Blancos although they had clear chances to put the match and tie away. Messi did not score but brave would be the one to oppose him again against Valencia. The hosts are possibly the third best team in La Liga but there is a gulf between them and the Blaugrana. Barcelona is a straight win selection.

Malaga should win at home to Zaragoza. Real Madrid should either win or draw at Granada, and I see Rayo Vallecano as the value bet in La Liga with a +1 goal handicap as they visit Sevilla.

Finally, it's the Super Bowl on Sunday. The San Francisco 49ers are short favourites but I have a feeling the Baltimore Ravens will win this. They are the better balanced team and their quarterback Joe Flacco has the ability to unlock the sometimes unorganized 49er defence. I am no American football expert, but from what I've seen, and I could be wrong, I will speculate and believe going with the Ravens is definitely worth a small crack at the current odds.


Win: Man Utd, Barcelona, Malaga
Draw-no-bet: Tottenham, Real Madrid
+1 Handicap: Rayo Vallecano

Red Devils to win the title

Three of the four Tuesday's games turned out draws, hope it turned into a nice payout for those that fancied it as well. Villa lost at home, which turned out to be a wrong selection.

I believe it is worth starting to take a position on Man Utd to win the league this year. I just cannot see them blowing it away again this year. Their main rivals for the title will again be Man City and the Citizens don't look to have the hunger to keep the trophy this year. Yesterday's goalless draw at QPR was good enough proof that this is a team that, although still formidable, is not incisive or sharp enough to win important games when they matter. Something is broken in this team; Silva cannot do everything on his own, they are missing Yaya Toure to run the midfield; Aguero and Tevez are shadows of their old selves. The team is simply not clicking and I don't think that booting away Ballotelli to Milan will cure their problems.

I still believe that Man Utd are a step behind their past teams of the treble year or of the Christiano Ronaldo years. But they are good enough to last all the way to the title. Their manager will guide them to it through sheer will. Sure, their defence is dismal but their attack is so good that they can outscore Premier League opponents at will. Last but not least, they already have a 4-point cushion with tonight's game in hand; given that they are best during the second half of the season, there's every reason to believe this gap will increase.

I firmly believe that Man Utd will win the league this year, so it's a case of accumulating position week-in, week-out, even when they lose points. They inevitably will drop points along the way, just like the rest, but the value lies in keeping the confidence and getting in as their odds go up after such off-days and nights.

For tonight's games, I like Arsenal at home to Liverpool. I think Arsenal will get better as the season goes along and they should have too much class for the Kops. Arsenal is a draw-no-bet selection.

I see Tottenham as good value as draw-no-bet at Norwich. The Canaries are struggling at the moment and Spurs will be welcoming the return of talismanic striker Defoe. Villa-Boas has surprised me with some good results since the start of the season and I expect them to win or draw at Norwich.


Draw-no-bet: Arsenal, Tottenham

EPL Wednesday

Tough-looking EPL games on Wednesday where the forms of many of the teams involved are very exposed. It would not be surprising if at least two of the four scheduled games ended up in draws.

Aston Villa v/s Newcastle. These teams are going through some tough patch lately and both managers are under severe pressure to start getting results. There are not worse teams in the league and they both should really be in mid-division and not fighting to stave off relegation. At some point, they are bound to embark on string of successful results after a prolonged poor sequence. This could very well end up with a draw or in Aston Villa's favour. They have a very good budding striker in Benteke who has the power and talent to exploit the weaknesses of the visitors' defence. Newcastle has added to their ranks in the transfer window and while this might help in the long run, the new recruits are bound to need some acclimatisation time to fit it. At current value, it looks worth to have the hosts at draw-no-bet.

QPR v/s Man City. I have a rising belief that Man City will not win the league again this season and that it will go to the red part of Manchester. That said, Man City should prove too good for the hosts in this one. The latter got dumped out of the FA Cup by a low level team, which prompted manager Redknapp to concede that his team was a shambles. The indications are there that even himself will not be able to turn around the club and relegation is a distinct possibility. The arrival of the Citizens can only complicate things; City are finding their form at the moment and were convincing winners at Stoke in the FA Cup over the week-end. They look to be a safe draw-no-bet.

The other 2 games, Stoke v/s Wigan and Sunderland v/s Swansea are really up for grabs. Stoke have been horrible of late and cannot be backed on recent form. Swansea will pose Sunderland problems with marksman Michu always a goal-scoring threat. A draw looks very probable on the cards for both matches in my opinion.

Draw-no-bet: Man City, Aston Villa

Football, National Hunt, Tennis

The EPL takes a backseat to the FA Cup this week-end. The only certainty looks to be Man Utd going through to the next round as they host Fulham. The Red Devils should win this no problem.

In Spain, Barcelona host Osasuna in what should be another 3 full points towards their march to the title. Real Madrid host Getafe, a game that they should also win even though Mourinho is bound to not play his best team given that the league is not their priority anymore. I see both giants winning their games this week-end.

National Hunt is not my main code of racing to follow, but I know that Sprinter Sacre is as safe a certainty as there is. He is a straight win recommendation in the Victor Chandler Chase Group 1 on Saturday.

Finally, the Australian Open will deliver its verdict on Sunday between the 2 best players in men tennis. If Andy Murray can overcome Novak Djokovic, he will have confirmed his US Open tennis consecration of last year and be the designated best player on tour and the one to beat in future tournaments. If the Serb wins, he will have shown he is still the undisputed No 1. I have a feeling Nole will win this but punting on any one of them would be pure speculation.

Win: Man Utd, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Sprinter Sacre

Friday football and ball boy

Borussia Dortmund should be too good for visiting Nurnberg in Bundesliga's Friday game and are a Win selection. I expect Dortmund to have a better second half of the season than its inconsistent first one, but it's probably too much to expect them to retain the title this year; Bayern look strong and have a decent enough cushion to last to the title.

The January transfer activity has been rather tepid and although things look to pick up in that regard as the deadline looms, there probably will not be too much to crow about possible mega transfers. However, the ball boy incident involving Hazard during the Swansea v/s Chelsea return semi-final match on Wednesday is good fodder for the front and back pages. I am 110% with the Chelsea midfielder on this one and certainly think that his red card should be rescinded. The obvious instigator of the whole episode is the silly ball boy. He happened to mention before the game that he would time waste. Ball boys can very much time waste as long as they don't obstruct the game. Silly boy should have stuck to his job. Arguably, Hazard looked to want to toe poke the ball under silly boy, not assault him. I don't think he merits any suspension from a rather misfortune red card, and he certainly does not deserve the flak he's getting on this.

In the end, Swansea are through to the league Cup final and they look near a certainty to win it all. I cannot see Bradford City stopping them, but we'll get to the final in due time.

Win: Borussia Dortmund

Week-end football

For this week-end's fixtures, I do not anticipate as many drawn matches as last week although there is no doubt that there are some favoured teams that will be made to work to get the full points. Here are some selections.

Liverpool v/s Norwich. The Reds got themselves a good striker in Sturridge from Chelsea. He can be lethal when full of confidence and he will have gotten some of that after scoring on his debut at Old Trafford. Norwich are a well-organized team that plays good counter-attacking football. If the score is still level late on, they might see themselves snatching a winning goal to steal the points. They have lost 4 of their last 5 league games, so it seems stretching to see the Canaries winning this all out. I would go for Liverpool as a draw-no-bet.

Man City v/s Fulham. Straight win for the hosts here. They should win this with their B team. They have lost the Toure brothers to the African Nations Cup but this should not matter against Fulham. Man City is a win selection.

Newcastle v/s Reading. I will give the Magpies home advantage here. They are on a poor run but have shown signs of regaining some form and confidence lately. There is no doubt that they are weaker force without Demba Ba, but his departure will give the likes of Cisse and Amoebi to shine. Reading are very vulnerable on the road and it's thus hard to warm to their chances. Newcastle is a draw-no-bet.

Swansea v/s Stoke. It is hard to find someone with a more nightmarish games than Stoke's Walters last week. Two own goals and one penalty miss against Chelsea that led to a 0-4 drubbing at home. It must be said that Tony Pulis' team is showing a very patchy form in the past few games. Swansea will rely on the exploits of Michu to do the damage again. The Spaniard is the find of the season and will be keen to add to this impressive goal tally against the stumbling visitors. This could go either way and I believe it will be decided by a goal, so I'll sit on the fence on this one.

West Brom v/s Villa. Got to go with the home team here even though I have been wrong on my last 2 selections regarding them. I side with them here because they are facing a Villa team in crisis. The Villains have the most terrible record of the past 6 weeks, leaking goals in abundance. West Brom are not in the best of shapes either having lost their last 3 league games. This is a great chance for them to start a winning sequence and they are a draw-no-bet selection.

In Spain, I like Malaga and Atletico Madrid as Wins at home to Celta Vigo and Levante respectively.

In Germany, Bayern Munich should easily win its home game against Greuther.

In Italy, AC Milan looks a safe draw-no-bet against Bologna.


Win: Man City, Malaga, Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich
Draw-no-bet: Liverpool, Newcastle, West Brom, AC Milan

EPL Preview

Finally, the EPL is back! No offence to the FA Cup, but there are no certainties when punting on the Cup games, and punting can turn out to be a very speculative exercise.

This week-end will be as competitive a fixture as I can remember. There aren't much between the opposing teams and it would be no surprise to see a lot of drawn matches or one single goal settling many results.

Fulham v/s Wigan. This is a battle between 2 teams with some amount of injury problems. I fancy the visitors to get a result here. They are a disciplined side who excel in breaking down an opponent's attack. They are well capable of exposing Fulham's failings at the back, particularly on the counter-attack. I will go for Wigan with a +1 goal Handicap.

Reading v/s West Brom. Reading's best chance of survival this season is to get maximal amount of points at home where they have proved to be prolific scorers. West Brom are one of the over-achieving teams of the year and they have a decent record on the road. They could win this game if they can keep the hosts quiet for a long duration of the game. For safety here, I will select the Baggies with a +1 goal Handicap.

QPR v/s Tottenham. Rangers are a tough team to predict. They can lose silly games at home against the likes of West Brom and Liverpool, then stun Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. They are a team loaded with problems and lack of depth and cohesion, and I am not certain that even Harry Redknapp can keep them afloat this year. My feeling is that if Spurs are at the very best, they should win this game. They have no injury worries and Gareth Bale could have a very big game here. Spurs is a draw-no-bet selection.

Stoke v/s Chelsea. I watched Chelsea's defeat at home to Swansea on Wednesday. What a woeful performance and the worrying fact is that Benitez had fielded his first team. Torres is not even worth a tenth of his 50 million pound tag. In fact, he's not even worth newcomer Demba Ba. When the Senegalese came on, he enlivened the Blues' attack and created their only chances of the game. Chelsea have to start with Ba to have any chance of winning this game. Still, a full-strength Stoke will make things difficult for them at the Britannia stadium. I believe there's value going with Stoke as a draw-no-bet.

Man Utd v/s Liverpool. It will be surprising if this game does not deliver fireworks; it's between the fiercest rivals in English soccer, even though Liverpool haven't won the league for the past 25 years or so! They will have to rely on Suarez to get something out of this game. The Uruguayan is in tremendous form and will be keen to wreak havoc in the generous Man Utd defence. As they've done all year long, the hosts will rely on Van Persie to settle things and he's been an absolute bargain buy for the Red Devils. He's scored the winner against Man City and it would not be stretching to see him net again in this derby. Man Utd is a draw-no-bet selection; they will particularly not want to lose at home to their rivals and have the attack to outscore them. The hosts just need to stay away from red cards and neutralize Suarez.


Draw-no-bet: Man Utd, Stoke, Tottenham
+1 Handicap: West Brom, Wigan

La Liga resumes

This is going to be a quiet week-end with the Cup game match-ups I'm not particularly fond of. Too many risks of upsets and top teams not fielding their starting eleven. Fortunately, La Liga resumes duties and both giants Barcelona and Real Madrid have seemingly easy fixtures at home.

The Catalans are a certainty to win the title this year. No way Real or Atletico can join them. The question at Madrid is whether manager Mourinho will finish the season with them. Considering the continuing deterioration of his relationships with players and executives over there, it might not be farfetched to think that he'll be out soon. Much of Madrid's chances to overcome Man Utd in the Champions League depends on him staying. Just like much of the Red Devils' chances of advancing will depend on the availability of captain Vidic to strengthen their defence. More on that in due time. For the moment, it looks safe to have Barcelona and Madrid as winners on their Sunday comeback.

Win: Barcelona, Real Madrid

Happy New Year and Football

Everything was on target except for Stoke which only managed a 3-3 draw at home against Southampton. The Saints caused a setback for the second week in a row but the other selections were good enough to outweigh this. I feel a spring in my step going into the New Year's showdowns.

West Brom v/s Fulham. I strongly favour WBA here. They left a couple of key players last time out at Old Trafford to rest for this game. Fulham have clearly regressed this year having lost their best 2 players in Dembele and Dempsey. They leak goals in abundance. West Brom should easily |get something one of this game, and it might be worth going for the outright win with them.

Swansea v/s Aston Villa. The woeful Villains are the team everyone wants to play at the moment. Swansea will be delighted to have gotten the pick. Villa are best by injuries and a major lack of confidence. It is impossible to back them in any shape or form currently. Swansea is another win selection.

Tottenham v/s Reading. Spurs are on a hot streak at the moment and they will be keen to unleash the full force of their potent attack against lowly Reading. They will be missing Bale due to suspension, but they have enough depth in their midfield to attenuate the loss of their best player. Reading's best chances to avoid relegation are to maximize points at home, as their poor defence makes them very vulnerable on the road. Spurs is a win selection.

Wigan v/s Man Utd. Hard to go against the red hot Red Devils here. They surprisingly lost to the hosts last year in this fixture, which did cost them the title, and they will be keen to make amends. Wigan can pose problems to the visitors' defence but as has been many cases this season, Van Persie and his striking partners have won by overpowering the opposition with their scoring. Man Utd is a win recommendation.

Southampton v/s Arsenal. This could turn out to be a high scoring game. Southampton have no problem scoring, particularly at home, and so do Arsenal. Walcott is in great form and on this run can light up the Saints' defence. Cazorla, Podolski and Arteta will be at ease against the offensively-minded Saints. I advise Arsenal as a draw-no-bet.

Happy New Year 2013 everyone!

Win: West Brom, Swansea, Tottenham, Man Utd
Draw-no-bet: Arsenal

Saturday EPL football

3 correct selections out of 6 made up for a poor Boxing punting day. Hoping for better results in Saturday's fixtures. Here's a briefing of some of my selections.

Although I see Man Utd winning their game against West Brom, I believe they will have to fight to the finish to secure the 3 points. My main reserve regarding the Red Devils is the herculean effort they had to put in to overcome Newcastle on Boxing Day. They are bound to feel the effects of the overexertion. Still, I think WBA are very exposed, having lucked out against QPR last time. Their winning goal should have been disallowed and Rangers should have secured a penalty in the dying minutes. I will go with Man Utd as a safe draw-no-bet.

I think Reading are worth some confidence against West Ham. Yes, the hosts can concede like crazy; but on their good day, they can score as well. I see the market feeling the Hammers have some chance of 3 points here, and this is a very possible result. However, I'll play the contrarian here and have Reading as a value draw-no-bet. Their attack can very well outscore the visitors.

Stoke has another great chance for 3 points at home, this time against lowly Southampton. They impressed me during their comeback win against Liverpool, and although they will be missing their 2 key defenders in Shawcross and Cameron, they should outplay the Saints. The latter were rather fortunate to snatch a dramatic point with a well-taken penalty by striker Lambert 5 minutes from time against Fulham, but they might not be that fortunate this time. I will suggest Stoke as a Win for value, although a draw-no-bet is the better proposition for those looking for lower risk.

Finally, I like Arsenal's chances against visiting Newcastle. The latter scored 3 goals at Old Trafford and they can score a few against the Gunners as well. However, their defence is very exposed and will be under siege against Cazorla and co. Also, the hosts will be fresh having not played on Boxing day. My selection is Arsenal as a draw-no-bet.

Win: Stoke
Draw-no-bet: Man Utd, Reading, Arsenal

Boxing Day football

The debate rages whether the EPL should have a winter break like all the rest of the European leagues, but from a fan or punting point of view, this is a no contest; the seemingly non-stop match fixtures during the festive period are pure nirvana. Here are my thoughts on Boxing day match-ups.

Man Utd v/s Newcastle. The Red Devils were unlucky to drop 2 points at Swansea over the week-end. They are the team form of the moment and this is the time they usually step up a gear. On the other hand, Newcastle are an ailing team. Since manager Pardew was given his ridiculous 8-year contract, their results have been below par. They have also been hit by some injuries to key players during that time. I cannot see them win this match; should they be desperately lucky, they can steal a point. Man Utd looks full value for an outright win and that's the recommendation.

Sunderland v/s Man City. Interesting match between 2 teams that alter the best and the worst. If City are at their best, they can blitz Sunderland. It's hard to gauge their true level of form; although they created many changes, they could only put one last-gap goal past a Reading defence that had been regularly shredded to pieces by other teams. To win this game, the Citizens will have to take their chances and be less profligate in front of goal. Sunderland have won 2 of their past 3 games, the wins coming against lowly opposition like Reading and Southampton. Martin O'Neill's men can make this game tight but it might be stretching for them to come up with a win. I would side with Man City as a draw-no-bet.

Norwich v/s Chelsea. Chelsea need to confirm their latest 8-0 drubbing of Aston Villa last week-end. Is that the start of a good period, or was it just a one-off? If they win convincingly again, then it might be worth following them in their future games. Norwich are a good force at home and it won't be surprising if they ended with the 3 points. This match can go either way and the outcome will be interesting as future reference.

Everton v/s Wigan. The Toffees are amazing me at the moment. They find a way to win even with their backs to the walls. They are proving a hard team to beat. I think they will throw a stinker soon but I don't know when. Wigan are still beset by a string of injuries and cannot be backed at any level. Logic dictates that the hosts will either come up with a win or a draw, provided they don't have that off-day I am mentioning. Might be worth siding with Everton as a draw-no-bet with the current odds.

Aston Villa v/s Tottenham. Confidence in Villa is very low after their 0-8 drubbing at Chelsea. How bad can you get? Also, how do players get their confidence back after that kind of result? The result of this game is up for grabs, so I'll stay away from trying to predict it.

QPR v/s West Brom. Much of Rangers' hope of staying in the top flight is to get full points at home. West Brom are over-achieving at the moment but I am not sure they can sustain their good form for long. They are bound to lose points on their travels and this is what will happen against Rangers, in my opinion. I strongly fancy the hosts as a draw-no-bet; their current odds representing the best value of the week-end

Stoke v/s Liverpool. The matches between these 2 teams usually end up goal-less or decided by the minimum of goals. If I were to play on scores, that's how I would punt on that game. Stoke are a good force at home and are a draw-no-bet recommendation.

Reading v/s Swansea. This can go either way.

Fulham v/s Southampton. These 2 teams are not in below-par form. Fulham are under-achieving because they are leaking goals in abundance at the moment. This is very uncharacteristic of them and they will welcome the visit of another struggling team in Southampton to gun for 3 points. I see the hosts winning this and are a strong Win selection.

Win: Man Utd, Fulham
Draw-no-bet: Man City, Everton, Stoke, QPR