C's and T's: Dawn Approach's challenge

New Approach made his mark as a serious Classic sire today after Talent's surprising victory in the Oaks. The question is whether he can make it a bis repetita celebration when his son Dawn Approach guns for Derby victory as a heavy favourite.

It seems to be a unanimous feeling that if Dawn Approach gets the 12-furlong distance, he will win. Based on form, there is not much in the race that comes close to Godolphin's representative. The answer to his stamina concerns lies in a momentous discovery in thoroughbred racing central of which is no other than his trainer Jim Bolger himself. It is his company that made the breakthrough that racehorses can be empirically categorized as pure sprinters, stayers and a mixture of both based on samplings of their DNA. To simplify a long story, if C stands for a sprinter-type and T for a stayer-type, then a CC-horse is bound to be primarily a short-distance specialist having received the C genes from both the dam and sire. On the same note, a TT-type horse will be more apt for stamina-challenging races. CT or TC-type horses can turn out to be in either part of the spectrum; they can become great sprinters, milers or stayers.

If Jim Bolger did not have Dawn Approach in the Derby preliminary entries, it is for the simple reason that he had empirical evidence that the colt is a CC-type horse, i.e, a sprinting type not suited for the Derby distance. The story goes that it is the colt's other owner, Godolphin's Sheikh Mohammed that decided to go for the Classic.

Given the above, it is clear that for Dawn Approach to win the Derby, 2 things must happen. First, he must have the class that will carry him through the distance. He will need to find every bit of it in the last furlong to the post, where many other champions (Dubai Millenium is the prime example) have floundered. The manner of all his wins lead me to think that Dawn Approach has that amount of required class. Second, much depends on the quality of his opponents. From what most of them have shown, their forms are very exposed. Battle of Marengo was workmanlike in the Derrinstown Derby Trial. Although unbeaten in 3 races, Ocovango is no Pour Moi although many pundits try to find similarities. Ocovango looks more like a galloper and lacks the burst of acceleration of the Derby winner. He can be in the thereabouts but at current odds, I think he's a great one to lay. The winner could come out of the rest of the pack with the likes of Mars, Ruler of the World or the unbeaten Chopin, but none of them would be a confident pick. It seems that whichever acts more on the Epsom undulations will have a chance of usurping the favourite.

My confident selection is Dawn Approach to be in the first 3. If he takes to the distance, he could rout this field. If not, there might be a dark horse among the rest waiting to bask in Epsom's glory. I don't think it will be Battle of Marengo or Ocovango, so they would be my lays of the race.

Place: Dawn Approach

Lay: Battle of Marengo, Ocovango

Moth to fly in Oaks

In what seems to be a common pattern in today's racing, Friday's Oaks seems to be a battle between Galileo's fillies; Secret Gesture is the one with the market support after her awesome demonstration in the Lingfield Oaks Trial. Moth is the other serious contender representing the Ballydoyle contingent. Galileo's sons and daughters really look set to rule the Classics to come for the foreseeable future.

It is true that the form of the Oaks Trial can be deemed suspect. The runner-up Miss You Too runs in Friday's Classic as well and is the long-shot of the field at over 100/1. That means to say that there is the real possibility that the visually impressive 10-length demolition of Secret Gesture in that race should be taken at face value and might not be the best form on show for the race. There is no doubt Ralph Beckett's filly is high-class but she will find the Classic race a much more competitive affair.

I really like the way Moth closed up the 1000 Guineas in finishing third. She finished best of the field and there is no doubt that the 12 furlong distance will be right up her alley. Her fans will have been delighted that she's the stable jockey's pick. She must have a big chance particularly if Secret Gesture's Oaks Trial form is exposed on the day.

Of the rest, I think Liber Nauticus will miss some seasoning for the race. She's undefeated in 2 races but I believe the Oaks comes too early for her. She's definitely over-priced in my books.

I can easily see Moth in the first three. She looks a safe and value Place punt at current odds.

Place: Moth

Choker tag on the line

The UCL final at Wembley is the main event of the week-end, pitting the 2 German teams Bayern Munich and Dortmund. On paper and based on form, Bayern looks difficult to beat and is the overwhelming favourite. But looks are very deceiving. For those that think that the Munich team will win it easily, consider this; Bayern have not beaten Dortmund in a league game for the past couple of years. They have lost more UCL finals than they've won. They lost when to Porto in 1987 when practically no-one thought the Portuguese had the slightest chance. Last year, they lost the final to Chelsea when playing at their vaunted Allianz Arena. They also lost to Man Utd during the Red Devils' Triple Crown coronation in 1999, and again to Mourinho's Inter Milan in the 2010 Final. In comparison, Dortmund's sole UCL final appearance and victory came as a massive under-dog against Juventus in 1997.

So, the word "choker" springs to mind when The Bavarians get to the final. But that's not to say that this year  might not be different; Bayern really look overwhelmingly strong this year. They crushed the Bundesliga early and annihilated Barcelona on their way to Wembley. This is a team that is really on the ascendancy and will be peaking in the coming years, provided upcoming coach Guardiola does not wreck them.

Against them is a strong Dortmund team that has the belief that this Cup is theirs for the taking. They were nearly dead and buried against Malaga, yet conjured up 2 goals in injury-time to make it through. They were not supposed to overcome mighty Real Madrid, yet they outplayed and outscored them. On its best day, this team can beat anyone, even Bayern. They are led by a maestro motivator in manager Klopp. They have world-class players like Lewandowski, Reus and Gotze that can open up any defence. But here's one thing; Gotze will miss the final due to a hamstring injury. That's a massive blow for Dortmund. He's their playmaker and although he's Bayern-bound next year, he would have been a real threat for the men in yellow.

The pressure will definitely be more on Bayern. They have to score first and preferably early to settle their nerves. Their ability to impose their game will be instrumental. They have beaten their opponents in the German Cup this season which will have given them belief that they can win the game in 90 minutes. Dortmund will most probably sit back and rely on their deadly counter-attack. Anything can happen in a final; the team that makes of the most of its chances will win. There's no certainty here; but I think that with some luck, Bayern is ready to dispel the myths and confirm the current thinking that they are indeed the best in Europe. Whether in full or injury-time, or on penalties, my feeling is that the Bavarians will prevail.

Changing Landscape

This end of football season in the European leagues looks set to be the watershed to the impending massive changes to bestow upon them next year. With the great SAF retiring, Man Utd will be under a new manager after 27 years. But the winds of change have affected many other European powerhouses as well; in England, Chelsea looks set for the second coming of Mourinho and Pellegrini has apparently been given the reins at Man City. The best 3 teams in England will be under new leaders. In Italy, Milan is on the verge of getting rid of Allegri after a so-so first season. Inter are on the look-out for a new coach as well. In Spain, the much-maligned Mourinho has finally been booted out of Madrid, to the delight of Spanish fans in general. Malaga will also look for a new manager after the departure of Pellegrini. In Germany, Guardiola is taking over the powerful Bayern Munich. Finally, so far, in France, PSG are looking to replace want-away Ancelotti for whom Real Madrid came calling.

We are talking here of 8 big teams that played in this year's Champions League. This is bound to affect not only their domestic leagues but next year's dynamics in the UCL as well. It is too early to say whether teams like Barcelona will have the advantage of continuity with them. After all, much of it will depend on player personnel as well. Rooney looks to be out of Man Utd, Dortmund will be losing some key players, Real Madrid is already working on their list of surplus to requirements. And probably more importantly, Neymar will make his European debut, quite possibly under a Barcelona shirt.

English football itself is moving into a new era with the retirement of Scholes, Beckham and Owen. While their careers were already on the wane for the past few years, there is no doubt that their names are etched forever in England folklore for their contributions to the game. They were some of the finest to ever don a Lions shirt and have made their indelible mark.

The carousel round of managers and players will make for a hectic transfer summer season . A new dawn of football will start in August. The retired ones will be missed but football will hold its intrigue more than ever.

Cup consolation for Real

First, a salute to Beckham who's decided his boots at the end of the year. Same year as SAF, Paul Scholes and Phil Neville, who have defined Man Utd for the past 20 years. Becks is simply the best crosser of the ball I have ever seen. No-one can bend it like Beckham. Also, Becks is the best free-kick taker in the 25-30 yard range I have ever seen. Zidane could have been the best below 25 yards but Becks had deadly aim at longer ranges. Although he's won in 4 different leagues, I'm pretty sure he would be as equally happy or more so playing all his career at Old Trafford, like Giggs and Scholes. The fact that he's really stayed a humble guys throughout his massive on and off-field successes say a lot about the man. A real rare true icon.

Tonight sees the Copa del Rey final between Real and Atletico Madrid. On one hand, there's a divided Real team whose manager Mourinho has burnt all of his bridges to the club and is on his way out. On the other, Atletico will try to use these apparent conflicts to finally secure a win over their city rivals. This final also pits 2 men who've never lost a final, I believe; Mourinho and Falcao have been in quite a few important ones and always found a way to win. Falcao always seems pumped for these kinds of occasions.

My verdict is that Real Madrid will prevail. The final being at their home Bernabeu gives them a massive advantage. It is a mountain to climb for Atletico. I don't give much credence to the theory that Real will be hampered by the stories of disarray in which the club seems to embroiled; that Mourinho has lost the locker room etc. He may have lost the players' esteem but they are still a strong force that can cause damage when playing in unison. They can still rely on CR7 to put them on the score sheet. Atletico's best chance will be for it to go to the lottery of penalties. I think Real will settle this game sooner than that.

Win Copa: Real Madrid

Celebrations in Manchester

Old Trafford will be the the theatre of a special ending Saturday when SAF manages his last Man Utd home game. It is bound to be emotional. There's every reason to believe the players will show nerves on the occasion. The hosts will have experienced a week out of the ordinary. Their training will have been disrupted. So typically, you'd expect Man Utd to start slowly and possibly struggle. Against them is a Swansea team with nothing to play for except maybe as spoilers, as they did against Wigan last week. Although they won that game, they never showed any glimpse of doing so for most of the match and were lucky to capitalize on 2 Latics errors. That said, I think it is written somewhere that the Red Devils will give SAF the send-off he deserves. It might take time, but I think that once they get on the score sheet, the hosts could spend the evening banging goals to their manager's delight. Once the nerves are settled, the Fergie's players will be giving their all in one of the games of their lives.

I am not sure I am a fan of the FA Cup being played before the season end, but it's hard to visualize anything other than a Man City win. Wigan is involved in a serious relegation fight and they will not be entirely focused on the game. Man City should have too much firepower for the Latics. It might take extra-time or penalites, but in the end, the Citizens should prevail.

Win: Man Utd
Win FA Cup: Man City

The Greatest - Sir Alex Ferguson

I don't think there could be a more massive news than yesterday's in football. Sir Alex Ferguson retirement news is a bombshell in itself and the fact that it was just out of the blue made it all the more sensational. This is about the only manager many Man Utd fans will have known. And the greatest one that ever managed a football team. Like any sort of transitioning in any business, this is bound to hit Man Utd hard. Liverpool have yet to recover from their glory days in the 80's. Although it is hard to fathom that the current Red Devils will suffer that kind of drought, it looks far-fetched to think that without the man, they will be able to sustain the kind of trophy collection that they've been so accustomed to under his guidance. Only Fergie's mastery and vision could have withstood the threat from big spenders like Chelsea and Man City in the past years. Yesterday's news will have given these teams a mighty spring in their step, that this might be finally their time for dominance.

Without Fergie, there is no doubt that Man Utd will go to battle without their soul. They will fight as they always do, but there will be that invisible all-important ingredient missing. The rampant feeling is that David Moyes will be the anointed replacement. There's no doubt that he's an excellent coach who's been doing wonders at Everton for the past years. The major downside is that he's never won a trophy and does not have Champions League experience. He might still be the best one for the job, particularly for the long term. But for the short term, things don't look rosy for the champions. Changes will be inevitable and some will be destabilizing. The news that Rooney is again asking for departure; his request might have been prior to the Ferguson news but it still is one of the many challenges facing the club in this new dawn.

The chance to work with Ferguson was an appeal for foreign stars to join the club. It's hard to think that the attraction will be the same under a new coach. Man Utd is bound to find it harder in the transfer market. With Fergie, a game was never lost until the final whistle. Man Utd fans have abundant memories of matches being won in injury time. With their never-say-die attitude, Fergie's teams made 0 point into 1, 1 point into 3, and jaws of defeat into glorious wins; ask Bayern Munich in the 1999 European Cup, arguably Fergie's finest hour.

Although it is too early to make predictions, there is every reason to believe that Man Utd will fall short of making the same kind of points haul in the EPL next year. This does not mean that the Red Devils cannot win the league again or be a major force in football. It's just that their dominance and awe, as we know it today, is over. The change of the guard will impact, it always does. If there is no shift of power, there is a bound to be a major re-balancing of it. This is a new dawn for Man Utd and English football. The top end of the EPL will certainly be looking different than the ones in the last decades.

Toronado to be followed by Dawn Approach

This week-end is all about Flat racing with the first Classics in Britain being held at Newmarket and the Kentucky Derby looking a wide-open affair at Churchill Downs.

There are only 2 names to remember for the 2000 Guineas; Toronado and Dawn Approach. The winner will come out of the two, and the loser will very possibly make the first 3. Not so long ago, Richard Hughes was claiming that Canford Cliffs was the best he'd ridden. He now thinks that Toronado is on par or potentially  better than CC. That's a big statement. The unbeaten son of High Chaparral won the Craven impressively. He's got the cobwebs out of that run. His connections think he's in the form of his life. The same connections won the 2000 Guineas 4 times and recently placed with CC, Dick Turpin and Dubawi Gold. So, they know how to prepare the horse for the race. Distance will not be a problem. Bar an accident, I cannot see Toronado out of the first 2. In fact, I think he will win.

Dawn Approach is the unbeaten son of New Approach. He's won all his 5 races like his sire, as a juvenile. New Approach was heavy favourite for the Guineas but found Henrythenavigator a head too good in the 2009 Classic. It could be a bis repetita scenario for his son as well. Trainer Jim Bolger has never won the Guineas, but that doesn't mean that he cannot prepare them right for the occasion. He's placed recently with New Approach, as well as Gan Amhras. He couldn't have better words for NA leading to the race; his preparation has been ideal with no hiccups and he has gotten the expected improvement from the horse to be a leading player this year. Very encouraging words which make me think that NA towers over the rest of the field, bar Toronado.

From the rest, Aidan's O'Brien's horses always run well in the Classic, even without a prep run. He won it with Camelot last year and he definitely knows how to get them a winning chance in the race. Whichever of George Vancouver, Mars or Christoforo Colombo should be the best of the rest.

I have hardly any doubt it will be between Toronado and Dawn Approach. Where Toronado edges it for me is his advantage of having had a prep run. Also, there looks to be pace in the race which will better suit the Hannon colt. Dawn Approach should follow him home.

The 1000 Guineas looks a wide open affair but I feel French raider What a Name could spoil the local party. She's definitely a very talented daughter of Mr Greeley and the mile will be right up her alley. The vibes are very positive from her yard after her convincing seasonal re-appearance win in the Prix Imprudence. She is a Place selection.

In the US, the Run for the Roses looks a very competitive one. Much of it will depend on the conditions of the race and any hard-luck for the horses to weave their way through a 20-horse field. Orb is the slight favourite and if he does not suffer from a horror trip, he should be a leading player. I'll stand on the sidelines on this one but any exotic punt needs to have Orb in there.


Win: Toronado
Place: Dawn Approach, What a Name

Comeback, only a dream for Real

Tonight is a momentous point in the career of Jose Mourinho; do the near-impossible and thrash Dortmund by 3 goals at least to qualify Real Madrid to the Champions League final. Fail to do so and be destined to be  remembered as an also-ran, or worse, a failure, as a  Madrid coach. Self-confessed philosophical latter words from the Portuguese himself. For, that would leave him with just one league and one Copa del Rey titles (make that two Copas if they win this year's) to boast during his short tenure at Madrid. Very far from the ambitious cries of European glory that characterized his appointment a few years ago.

The European Cup is not short of great comebacks from the men in white. In the late 80's, it seemed inevitable they would make the difference at the Bernabeu after a heavy defeat on their travels;Anderlecht, Inter, Moenchengladbach have painful memories of these reversals. This would be the inspiration for the Los Blancos for tonight's game. Can they also do it? I don't think so. For every goal Madrid is bound to score, Dortmund can respond with one as well. They scored 2 on their last visit during the preliminary stages. This is a team that is mentally strong enough to withstand the apprehension of stepping into the cauldron of the Bernabeu. Their unorthodox manager Klopp will have readied them for that.

Real will depend on Ronaldo as usual. Much will depend on his disposition for the game as he's officially nursing a thigh injury. I have hardly any doubt Madrid will score; I actually think they can get 2 or possibly 3. But Dortmund will have their chances to score as well. My intuition of an all-German final before the start of the semis looks good; unless the referee has some other devious plan in mind, Dortmund should go through and the odds currently on offer are an absolute bargain.

In the other semi-final, I mentioned before that Barcelona have no chance of going through against the Bayern machine. Even with a Messi at 100%.

To qualify: Borussia Dortmund

Rogues and cheats

Amidst the fabulous semi-finals of Champions League football and Sprinter Sacre spectable in racing at Punchestown, two bombshells hit the headlines in these sports for the past week; yet-another scandal involving Luis Suarez, and the Al Zarooni drug shame.

The long list of mis-demeanors of Liverpool's Suarez is well-documented; biting at an opponent during his Ajax days, racial abuse towards Man Utd's Evra, refusal to shake hands with the latter in a later game, numerous diving incidents, and the deliberate hand-ball at the goal line against Ghana during a World Cup game. I am less inclined to fault him for that latter obstruction as it was really a reflex to stop being scored against. But his latest chewing at the expense of Chelsea's Ivanovic is less forgivable. It is a case of repeatable barbaric offence which, in my mind, deserves an unconditional heavy punishment. Ten games and Liverpool are sulking? Common, I think he deserves half the season on the sidelines. Let him consider his future in English football; in fact, I think the EPL would be better without his antics. His football skills are evident, but mentally there is definitely something amiss. How much more human meat he needs to chew before Liverpool decide that enough is enough?

The Al Zarooni saga is still unfolding, so not all the elements are pieced together yet before all questions can be clearly answered. It is quite hard to accept his reasoning that he did not know the rules about steroid use in UK racing. I mean, of the past 7 years, there have been 3 drug violations that have been detected; 2 of them were from Al Zarooni himself, for usage of forbidden pain-killers on his horses. It seems unfathomable that had that been naivety of his part back then, that he wouldn't have consulted the drug policies regarding harder drugs like anabolic steroids. His excuse of not knowing the rules does not hold much water. Unlike Suarez, his career is over. It looks to be the case of the young ambitious trainer who had his chance, took it and then blew it. What remains are pertinent questions that hopefully will be answered in the next days, but possibly many others won't be answered; For example, what to make of his successes at the highest level during the past 3 years? Was Monterosso juiced in winning the Dubai World Cup in 2012? He did surprise many by his decisive win on that day. Was Rewilding a worthy winner at Royal Ascot when gunning down heavy favourite So You Think? Many thought, including I, that the Ballydoyle colt was unbeatable that day, which prompted shell-shocked trainer O'Brien to advance that he hadn't prepared the colt adequately. How about Encke foiling Camelot's triple crown bid in the St Leger last year? Pounds, as well as dreams, were shed by many on that Classic, and they could very well have been for the wrong reasons if the Godolphin representative benefited from an illegal boost on the occasion.

Unlike some, I think that Godolphin will survive this. They are too huge to go under, just like the saying in the financial world, where there are banks that are too big to fail. There's every chance that Suarez will continue his controversial path and find something up his sleeve when he comes back. It just wouldn't shock anyone anymore. On further thoughts, maybe it could still shock, you never know with Suarez.

Dortmund to make case for German final

Bayern did it as expected yesterday, and there is no way back in this tie for Barcelona. It's true a couple of the goals were suspect, particularly the Robben one which should have been disallowed, but Bayern were truly the better team by far. This is the end of the Barcelona dominating team as we know it.

My view that it can very well be an all-German UCL final stands, and Dortmund can pile more Spanish misery tonight against Real. How the sudden Gotze announcement will affect the team remains to be seen. Dortmund have a crazy manager in Klopp, a brilliant manager he is as well. I don't think Mourinho had any chance of playing mind games with Klopp which is why the Portuguese has stayed pretty numb in the rundown to tonight's encounter. It sometimes takes a crazy personality to outdo another one and that's what Klopp has done to Mourinho! Anyway, on the pitch, it will be 2 evenly teams needing to take their scoring chances to make it through.

Dortmund have unbelievable talent in Reus, Gotze and Lewandowski. No doubt that they won the Bundesliga twice in a row when Kagawa was there as well. They are potent but they have to be less profligate at goal like against the first-leg in Malaga where they wasted a ton of first-rate opportunities to score. Their strike force can un-lock the suspect Madrid defence, for sure.

Real Madrid have Ronaldo, and that gives them a winning chance in any match. Limit him and Borussia will have a great chance. I think Real will look for the away goal and try to park the bus in this match, in order to make the difference at the Bernabeu. Counter-attacking is their forte and look set to be their modus operandi.

I think it's worth going with Dortmund as a draw-no-bet here. They beat Real in the preliminary stage by the minimum score, although the conditions were different at the time. Real showed vulnerability in their last 2 travels; at Old Trafford where they needed a helping hand from the referee to go through, and at Galatasaray where they were outplayed by an arguably modest Turkish side. Dortmund looks to make a statement tonight and advance the cause of Bundesliga power in Europe.

Draw-no-bet: Borussia Dortmund

Bayern to overwhelm Barcelona

Nice pay-day on Monday; I've been mentioning on these pages since January to pile on Man Utd for Premier League glory and they made it official after thumping Aston Villa. Nice outcome one month before the season actually ends! Whatever is said about the quality of this team with respect to its predecessors, I think this team has the potential to get even better next year and no doubt that winning the Champions League will be seriously on their agenda. But this talk is for next season.

Talking of UCL, Tuesday sees Bayern Munich host Barcelona for the first semi-final, arguably these 2 teams being the best in the world at the moment. My thoughts on the UCL at this stage is very much against popular thought at this stage; I think one of the Germans teams will win it and it could very well be an all-German final. The market obviously thinks otherwise and sees either of the Spanish giants winning it and favo urs an all-Spanish final.

Bayern Munich have won the Bundesliga in an unprecedented canter. They have been dominating  in both the domestic league or in Europe, even though they can show the occasional blip like in the return leg against Arsenal at the elimination stage. This team is possibly the best organized of the remaining four and strong in all departments. This team is strong mentally as well with the likes of Schweinsteiger, Robben, Lahm, Ribery and Gomez in their prime. The only thing that they lack against Barcelona is a Messi/Ronaldo-type player that can change a game at will. The arrival of Gotze, by the way, next year, will only reinforce this team.

I subscribe to the growing belief that Barcelona are past their prime; they are still one of the best, if not still the best, teams out there, but it's tough to see them improve on what they've already achieved. This year, they've shown that they are hugely dependent on Messi and if the Argentinian is not on song, they can be in a lot of trouble. That spells trouble against Bayern, particularly that Messi has just come back from injury and will not be at his utmost best against the Bavarians.

Bayern look strongly favoured for this encounter, based on the form of the two teams in the past few weeks. The Germans' best hope of going through is to make the difference at home, with full knowledge that the Spaniards have shown great vulnerability on a few of their travels. If they can limit a Messi who's bound to be not at his best, they must have a great chance of winning this first leg.

Bayern is a safe draw-no-bet. At current odds, for a riskier venture but greater return, I would be inclined to go straight for the Bayern win. I think Barcelona are in for a difficult night at the Olympic stadium.

Win: Bayern Munich
Draw-no-bet: Bayern Munich

Week-end football and racing

The Flat season has started its post-Frankel era since a couple of weeks. No doubt that the mega-star of the past few years will be missed, but this is racing; one goes and there is hope that another gem arises, although it will be tough to surpass Frankel. But just a few years ago, everyone seemed to think that we'd never see the likes of Sea The Stars again, yet the son of Galileo appeared and the rest, they say, is history.

Black Caviar surprisingly left for the paddocks as well earlier this week and so racing has lost its 2 brightest stars. Among the juvenile brigade, there are a few that have shown potential and might emerge with promise; Dawn Approach and Toronado are certainly at the fore-fronts of all minds ahead of the coming Guineas. Among the older brigade, Camelot oozes enigma, and expectations will be high on the son of Montjeu to vindicate claims from his trainer that he's the best horse ever to come out of  Ballydoyle.

Then, Sea The Stars has his first 2-year olds running this year. I personally believe he will become a terrific sire; whether as good or better than his half-brother Galileo, it's difficult to pronounce, but he's definitely got the pedigree and breeder support to make a great stallion. We'll have to wait and let his sons and daughters do the talking. Lots to look forward indeed.

On Saturday, Noble Mission, makes his season appearance at Newbury. It looks to be all systems go for the Frankel's half-brother. The distance will suit and he's clearly got the best form from last year, among the runners. He will definitely be in the top 2, but is worth a punt as an outright Win at current odds.

The Group 3 Greenham Stakes at 15.30 looks to be a race between Hannon's Olympic Glory and Botti's Moohajim. Both yards are in good form but I give a small advantage to the Hannon horse at the seven furlong distance. He's a Win selection as well.

In football, I like Norwich as a Win against sorry Reading. This should put the Canaries at ease in the relegation fight. I think Wigan will sneak something out of their trip to West Ham. They showed good spirit in their loss at Man City and they definitely can match the Hammers. Wigan is a draw-no-bet selection.


Win: Noble Mission, Olympic Glory, Norwich
Draw-no-bet: Wigan

Tough Toffee test for Gunners

Arsenal's odds are way too short against Everton on Tuesday's sole EPL match. The Gunners struggled against Norwich over the week-end and were only able to breach the Canaries in the last 5 minutes. Everton were convincing home winners against QPR and will certainly be less physically worn-out for Tuesday's game. As usual, the Toffees should give the Gunners a hard time and I see them as great value with a +1 goal advantage.

+1 Goal: Everton

Week-end European fixtures

It will be Bayern v/s Barcelona and Dortmund v/s Real in the semi-finals of the UCL. In fact, any combination would have been mouth-watering; these are really the 4 best teams in the world. My early inclination is that one of the German teams is going to win the trophy, and I also feel it could very well be an all-German final; I'm sure the majority will not agree. We'll get to those fixtures when the the first leg will be played. Here are some thoughts on some of this week-end's matches.

Arsenal v/s Norwich. I don't think the Canaries will drop and I also don't think they can go to the Emirates and win. Arsenal look to finish another disappointing season on a strong note and am backing them for the Win. They will be missing Diaby in midfield although the return of Wilshere should bring that loss in perspective.

Aston Villa v/s Fulham. Got to go with the Villains to snatch at least a point from this contest. They are on a real fight for survival and must be gunning for maximum points against Fulham. Their form is alright against middle-tier teams and I fancy there will be a few goals in this contest. Aston Villa is the value draw-no-bet selection of the week-end.

Everton v/s QPR. It's almost game over for Rangers who will drop in my opinion. Although it will be difficult for them, Everton are still in contention for the fourth spot and will aim for maximum points. With the return of Fellaini and Pienaar, Everton look a safe draw-no-bet selection.

Stoke v/s Man Utd. The Red Devils are on a mini-slump and although they still have a more than comforting advance at the top, they will want to stop their losing run. Stoke have been toothless for quite a while and they look to be a team that needs major restructuring. Tony Pulis does not seem to be able to get any more out of the current team. It's true that the Mancunians have always found The Brittania a difficult place to go but they've not lost there. This is a match they need to make a statement to knock any revived title hopes a City fan might have nurtured. Man Utd is a win recommendation.

In Europe, Atletico Madrid should beat Granada while in the Ligue 1, PSG should come back with full points from their travel to Troyes.

Win: Man Utd, Arsenal, Atletico Madrid, PSG
Draw-no-bet: Aston Villa, Everton