Epsom Derby... the greatest Derby in the world. Kentucky fans might disagree but the rest of the world will agree! Saturday's Derby looks wide open unless there is a superstar lying in the shadows that no-one is noticing; or could it be everyone is actually looking at it and wondering whether it is the real deal? City of Troy is what I am talking about; last year's superstar who has flopped big time in the Guineas. Without further ado, here is a run-down of the field.
Ambiente Friendly - the one in the field with the visually most impressive win in a trial for this race. He crushed the Lingfield Trial. He will have a new jockey on board in Robert Havlin and whether that is a positive or negative is the question. He tends to race keenly and I have a feeling he will not find Epsom to his liking as he did at Lingfield. Cannot be dismissed but there might be one or two better than him on the day.
Ancient Wisdom - Rain rain rain, that's what he wants. I always respect the winner of the Futurity Stakes of the previous year for the Derby and he's won that race easily last year. If there's no rain (low probability), his chances will dampen but he cannot be dismissed. A Dubawi has never won the Derby but under the care of Appleby gives him a proper chance. A win punt makes sense if there is rain; if not he could be in for the places.
Bellum Justum - A Sea The Stars colt has to be respected on the occasion but there isn't much stamina on the dam side, so I am not confident he will take to the Epsom distance. Toss.
City of Troy - The nasty nugget he delivered in the Guineas has certainly lowered his reputation. His pedigree looks to be one of the best of the field. I tend not to get drawn by the hyperboles' coming from Aidan O'Brien and Coolmore but based on his 2-year old form and his pedigree, he has to be given a chance if he runs as expected. O'Brien set the record straight with Auguste Rodin after his Guineas flop last year and he could do it again with this colt. Fingers crossed but he looks to be the best horse on paper.
Dallas Star - His win the Ballysax trial race looked impressive although it was on heavy ground. He might need the rain and the chances are looking like he won't get it. Toss.
Dancing Gemini - A seemingly unlucky second in the French 2000 Guineas, I think it's going to be a big ask from a mile to 12 furlongs for a listed winner, although he is from Camelot. One for the places.
Deira Mile - This is another Camelot but he's won convincingly at a mile and a quarter in breaking his maiden, so cannot be dismissed. It would not be a surprise if he made the places but winning it all could be stretching a bit.
Euphoric - I like the profile of this Ballydoyle horse; he's going to make the running and who knows if he can spring a Serpentine? The jockey isn't great but who needs a great one when it's on a front runner? A Frankel always needs to be respected and his long odds makes him even more appealing.
God's Window - Even though coming from the Gosden stable, it's hard to see it playing a major role here.
Kamboo - It's folly to be in this race.
Los Angeles - Undefeated runner from Ballydoyle, he's definitely got the stamina. He will pick most of them up in the straight but the question is whether he has enough speed? He looks the typical St Leger horse but it would not be any surprise at all if he dominated this.
Macduff - I wish he had a little more stamina on the dam side but he ticks a lot of boxes. I don't like the name but I like his sire. Can run a big race and cannot be discounted.
Mr Hampstead - what is he doing in this race?
Sayedaty Sadaty - I am confident he is a very good mile and a quarter horse but questions linger for the Derby distance. If one is looking for a good each-way long shot, he is the one.
Tabletalk - Supplemented in the race after breaking his maiden. This looks more like doing harm to the horse itself.
Voyage - What a wonderful pedigree he's got and am sure he's destined for a very good career. But he's only run once, so unless he's a Lammtarra, it's hard to see him playing a role.
This race revolves around City of Troy. No-one really knows if he is that good to win the world's greatest race. He could just be a dud that did not train on; think about Air Force Blue a few years back from the same stable. But he could be that good too; his pedigree screams a mile and a half and vibes from connections are still bullish (although they always are). Ancient Wisdom is one for the places and Euphoric and Sayedaty Sadaty are longshots worthy of a shot.
No comments:
Post a Comment