EPL Bites - Week 11

As much as I was happy to see last week selection's Southampton oblige with a win against Everton, I am willing to oppose the Saints this week-end during their trip to bottom club Wolves. In fact, these are the 2 worst clubs in the league as far as points are concerned. But I still believe the stats do not tell the full story and both clubs should get in a better position as the league progresses. It is Wolves that I think have the squad to beat relegation and they are worth at least double the points that they current have. Their main problem have been injuries and incapability to hold on to leads. They don't seem to have any problem scoring but they simply cannot maintain a clean sheet. I expect them to be free scoring again against the Saints and if they can avoid self-destruction and properly manage the match, they should be a good shoe-in for the win.

Win: Wolves 

EPL Bites - Week 10

Rock-bottom Southampton have been knocking on the door for a big win lately and I believe they are prime to get one this weekend. How they lost to Leicester a fortnight ago remains a mystery as they looked really good for a full 3 points in that match. They were then beaten by the narrowest of margins against Man City in their next match, which can be considered a small victory coming out of the Eithad Stadium. I think the Saints can still beat the drop as they are far from rubbish but they just need the rub of the green at the moment. Visiting Everton have been on a good run lately after a dreadful start. They don't score much but they keep their matches close. If the Saints are not as profligate in front of goal as they were against Leicester, they can inflict damage to the visitors. They look good value for the win at current odds.

Win: Southampton

Arc 2024 - Can the Emperor bring the Holy Grail?

This year's Arc has no proven superstar and it looks to be a wide open race with quite a few that can add their name to Flat immortality in landing the greatest race in the world. Iwill focus on those Ithink will be the 6 main protagonists in Bluestocking, Look de Vega, Shin Emperor, Delius, Sosie and Aventure. That's not to say that fancied sorts such as Los Angeles, Al Riffa and Mqse de Sevigne are not without a chance but I believe the names in the first group have more upside to them and prime to deliver on Sunday.

Bluestocking is a top-class mare winner of the Prix Vermeille who's blossomed this year. She ticks a lot of boxes going into the race. Being by Camelot, she's bred for this distance and she goes well on soft ground. She has an ideal post of 3 and also gets a 3-pound allowance. If Rossa Ryan has her handy in a stalking position, she should be thereabouts at the finish. 

Look de Vega disappointed many on his return in the Prix Niel where he lost his unbeaten record. The impressive winner of the French Derby looked like he was stretched at the extended distance and on this performance would not figure in this standout list. The common view is that he might have needed that race after a lengthy rest and if that is a legitimate excuse, he should be bang ready on Sunday. He is the best 10 furlong horse of the race and if he can show his class at 12 furlongs, he must be the horse to beat.

Japan's hopes this year rests on Shin Emperor and unlike his illustrious predecessors such as Deep Impact and Orfevre, does not bring a top-level resume to Longchamp. In fact, hear this, he's only a Group 3 winner in Japan! However, his performance in the Irish Champion Stakes raised serious attention as he was a running-on third while only 70% ready according to his trainer. That run reminded me a lot of Sotsass who was 4th in the Irish Champion Stakes before landing the Arc in his next race. The resemblance is not coincidental as he's actually a full brother to Sotsass! Discard Japanese stars at your peril and this guy could be the one that ends Japanese tears in the Arc and finally lands them their Holy Grail!

Delius is the only Frankel in the lineup and I like his profile going into the race. He was beaten by Sosie in his last 2 races but was not disgraced when second in the Niel. He looks to be a horse on the upside and if things go his way, he could outlast them all. His number 7 draw should have him well placed. 

Sosie brings the best form going in the race and is therefore the deserved favourite. If he can reproduce his form of the past 2 months, he will be hard to beat. There are really no negatives to find on this son of Sea the Stars and the question is whether he can sustain the devastating form of his last 2 runs. 

Aventure is another Sea the Stars that will benefit from a good weight allowance being a 3-year old filly. She was a good second in the Vermeille and must be given an honest chance given her good draw at number 4. She will have no problem with the soft conditions.

Brace yourselves, a Japanese thoroughbred will win the Arc one day and tomorrow could be THE day! The way Shin Emperor performed in the Irish Champion Stakes will give a nation the belief that this could be their year. They say he has improved since. The Emperor has history in his grasp!

Win: Shin Emperor

Each-way: Aventure, Delius

EPL Bites - Week 7

What we learned from this past week is that Man Utd is a wreck of a team at the moment. There is no leadership anywhere on the field and look no further than captain Fernandez who notoriously got sent off twice in consecutive matches. The defence is porous and Ollie Watkins will simply love it on Sunday. It is true that after yet another defeat at Villa Park, Ten Hag's days as manager will be numbered. It is hard to oppose the Villains here particularly with a mastermind like Emery who relishes playing against the big guns.

I believe Wolves are too good to be laying at the bottom of the table; they have been unlucky in a few matches and beset by injuries but I feel they are close to turn around their fortunes. Going to Brentford is never easy but the hosts are also facing quite a few injuries at the moment. This should be an even match but at current odds, it is worth taking a punt on the visitors edging this encounter.

Win Dupla: Aston Villa/Wolves

EPL Bites - Week 6

Who knows what type of Man Utd will show up this week-end against visiting Spurs? The Red Devils have been consistently inconsistent for a while now under Ten Hag that it is hard to back them with the same confidence as in their hey-days. They can play very well and not get the win or they can play poorly and still get the win. One thing is for certain though; if results don't improve drastically, Ten Hag should be out very soon. Tottenham are reeling on their own and I think they will be hard-pressed to win a European spot this season despite the manager's brash confidence that he always wins something in his second season in charge. I don't think it will happen and if it does, it will be the League Cup at most. Superstar Son has yet to deliver impactfully this season and the team hardly performs well when he doesn't fire. It should be a close one and with both teams not at full throttle, I see this encounter ending into a draw that makes no-one happy.

Draw: Man Utd/Tottenham

EPL Bites - Week 5

I persist into thinking that Arsenal will win the league as I think they will outlast City in the end. However, I will have no problem siding with the Citizens when they clash with the Gunners on Sunday. Obviously, this is a a 6-pointer match between the 2 main protagonists for the title and it will be very hard to go against Guardiola's men; they are at home and Arsenal had a hard UCL match in mid-week. So I expect Man City to win this match and Arsenal can hope for a draw at best. The Gunners should have their title odds lengthen as a result, at which time it would make sense to have a bit of a punt on them.

Spurs are in bad need of some major points and should be able to edge Brentford at home. The latter have lost striker Wissa for a couple of months and look short-handed up front, with Toney gone to Saudi riches. The worry for Spurs is that Son is have a difficult time under Postegoclou's system and is not his usual threat to defences. Also, midfield maestro Maddison needs to pick up as well. Tottenham should have too much quality for the visitors and are favoured to win this.

Win: Man City/Tottenham

EPL Bites - Week 4

After 2 defeats in the first 3 matches, the knives are out at Ten Hag already. They were a shade unlucky at Brighton and they just committed too many mistakes against a quality Liverpool side in the last game week. This team is way too good on paper to languish in 14th place. I expect a good reaction from them and although going to St Mary's has never been an easy visit for them, they should have too much quality against the newly-promoted side. I don't anticipate lots of goals in this match but Utd should edge this with a goal or two.

Brighton should prove too much for Ipswich and Aston Villa shouldn't have too much trouble dispatching struggling Everton. I thought Palace have been hard done by in the first few weeks and they should get on the win column soon, starting with visiting Leicester this week-end. Putting these in an accumulator should prove rewarding.

Accumulator: Man Utd/Brighton/Aston Villa/Crystal Palace

EPL Bites - Week 3

Am a little late to the EPL party but here goes some of my predictions. First, I really see it being Arsenal's year to finally lift the trophy after their long drought. The talent is clearly there and the young guns should be really hungry to finally overcome nemesis Man City. If Arteta's core players can stay clear of injuries and avoid their customary mini-slumps, they look the most apt to end City's dominance.  The latter will be competitive as usual but I think upcoming distractions such as addressing cheating allegations in the coming months will prey on their minds and possibly derail their season.

Chelsea, Man Utd and Liverpool have the capacity to follow the above 2 but they are one or two notches below to be considered viable for the title.

For Week 3, I like Man Utd's chances against eternal rivals Liverpool. Besides home advantage, there is a good current spirit flowing though the team and I expect them to show the intensity needed to overcome a vulnerable Liverpool side still finding itself under a new manager. The Red Devils were arguably unlucky to be beat by a strong Brighton team last week and they need full points here to stay apace the top. I expect a big performance from them and a straight win or draw-no-bet should prove fruitful.

Win: Man Utd

Epsom Derby 2024 - Moment of Truth for City of Troy

 Epsom Derby... the greatest Derby in the world. Kentucky fans might disagree but the rest of the world will agree! Saturday's Derby looks wide open unless there is a superstar lying in the shadows that no-one is noticing; or could it be everyone is actually looking at it and wondering whether it is the real deal? City of Troy is what I am talking about; last year's superstar who has flopped big time in the Guineas. Without further ado, here is a run-down of the field.

Ambiente Friendly - the one in the field with the visually most impressive win in a trial for this race. He crushed the Lingfield Trial. He will have a new jockey on board in Robert Havlin and whether that is a positive or negative is the question. He tends to race keenly and I have a feeling he will not find Epsom to his liking as he did at Lingfield. Cannot be dismissed but there might be one or two better than him on the day.

Ancient Wisdom - Rain rain rain, that's what he wants. I always respect the winner of the Futurity Stakes of the previous year for the Derby and he's won that race easily last year. If there's no rain (low probability), his chances will dampen but he cannot be dismissed. A Dubawi has never won the Derby but under the care of Appleby gives him a proper chance. A win punt makes sense if there is rain; if not he could be in for the places.

Bellum Justum - A Sea The Stars colt has to be respected on the occasion but there isn't much stamina on the dam side, so I am not confident he will take to the Epsom distance. Toss.

City of Troy - The nasty nugget he delivered in the Guineas has certainly lowered his reputation. His pedigree looks to be one of the best of the field. I tend not to get drawn by the hyperboles' coming from Aidan O'Brien and Coolmore but based on his 2-year old form and his pedigree, he has to be given a chance if he runs as expected. O'Brien set the record straight with Auguste Rodin after his Guineas flop last year and he could do it again with this colt. Fingers crossed but he looks to be the best horse on paper.  

Dallas Star - His win the Ballysax trial race looked impressive although it was on heavy ground. He might need the rain and the chances are looking like he won't get it. Toss.

Dancing Gemini - A seemingly unlucky second in the French 2000 Guineas, I think it's going to be a big ask from a mile to 12 furlongs for a listed winner, although he is from Camelot. One for the places. 

Deira Mile - This is another Camelot but he's won convincingly at a mile and a quarter in breaking his maiden, so cannot be dismissed. It would not be a surprise if he made the places but winning it all could be stretching a bit.

Euphoric - I like the profile of this Ballydoyle horse; he's going to make the running and who knows if he can spring a Serpentine? The jockey isn't great but who needs a great one when it's on a front runner? A Frankel always needs to be respected and his long odds makes him even more appealing.

God's Window - Even though coming from the Gosden stable, it's hard to see it playing a major role here.

Kamboo - It's folly to be in this race.

Los Angeles - Undefeated runner from Ballydoyle, he's definitely got the stamina. He will pick most of them up in the straight but the question is whether he has enough speed? He looks the typical St Leger horse but it would not be any surprise at all if he dominated this.

Macduff -  I wish he had a little more stamina on the dam side but he ticks a lot of boxes. I don't like the name but I like his sire. Can run a big race and cannot be discounted.

Mr Hampstead - what is he doing in this race?

Sayedaty Sadaty - I am confident he is a very good mile and a quarter horse but questions linger for the Derby distance. If one is looking for a good each-way long shot, he is the one.

Tabletalk - Supplemented in the race after breaking his maiden. This looks more like doing harm to the horse itself.

Voyage - What a wonderful pedigree he's got and am sure he's destined for a very good career. But he's only run once, so unless he's a Lammtarra, it's hard to see him playing a role.

This race revolves around City of Troy. No-one really knows if he is that good to win the world's greatest race. He could just be a dud that did not train on; think about Air Force Blue a few years back from the same stable. But he could be that good too; his pedigree screams a mile and a half and vibes from connections are still bullish (although they always are). Ancient Wisdom is one for the places and Euphoric and Sayedaty Sadaty are longshots worthy of a shot.

2000 Guineas & Kentucky Derby 2024

 Ah, the smell of the roses in May... Saturday is epic horse racing day as the 2000 Guineas and Kentucky Derby crown the first stars of the Classic crop on turf and dirt. It could be a historic day for the Coolmore boys as they are very well poised to strike in both Classics with City of Troy and Sierra Leone. But let's get in more depth into those 2 races.

City of Troy starts his sophomore year with the greatest expectations of any horse since Frankel. Superlatives have come and gone elevating the son of Justify to near Frankel-esque levels. His 3 wins last year were visually impressive and the excitement exacerbated by the boastful remarks of connections. If he's trained on, he will crush the race. The vibes from the yard look very positive and it's hard for nay-sayers to find anything to say against the horse; maybe the odds are prohibitive but throw those away and you are looking at a form that is just incomparable to the field. Rosaillon might prove a better sprinter than miler when looking at his pedigree, so I wouldn't go close to him for the win. Notable Speech is from Charlie Appleby's yard and thus cannot be discarded but he's never run on the lawn. I think Task Force might be one apt for the places as he looks an improving Frankel out of a top-class mare.

The Kentucky Derby might be very tactical this year given the prevailing wet conditions. Whoever gets into that lead could go from start to finish and I have Dornoch in mind. He will have no problem winning the dash from gate 1. On pure strength and form, the best horses look to be Sierra Leone, Fierceness and Forever Young. Sierra Leone has the best kicking finish of the field and starting from gate 2 will be a problem for such a strong closer. If he can get a clear trip, he will win but there are chances that he faces a wall entering the straight. Fierceness crushed all in the Florida Derby but since he alternates the good and the bad, it's hard to be fully confident that he will show his A game in Kentucky. I will have no problem tossing and laying him on the day. Then, there is Forever Young, the undefeated UAE Derby winner from Japan. How good is he and how will he like the slop? His Japanese trainer has won 2 Breeders Cup, so why not the Derby? His draw in 10 is ideal for this closer and provided his jockey takes to the Churchill track and have him in a good spot, he can shock this field If there is a non-American horse that will win the Kentucky Derby one day, it will be a Japanese one. Forever Young could be the one.

Win: City of Troy, Sierra Leone/Forever Young

     

Dubai World Cup 2024

 Dubai World Cup day, one of grand days of racing and the real signal to the start of Flat racing as far as I am concerned. With the recent removal of the ban of the South African horses, I am waiting with trepidation of the return of Mike de Kock's horses at Meydan in the near future. The Carnival has missed the presence of such kind of opposition to Charlie Appleby's domination, particularly on the turf. With that, here are my brief views of the Saturday racing card.

Kahayla Classic (Arabian)

Look no further than the 2 Khalediah's in the race. Asfan Al Khalediah is unbeaten in 14 races while Tilal Al Khalediah won nine out of ten outings. It's a toss up between these two for the win and Falaah has Place claims.

Godolphin Mile

Saudi Crown is the standout horse of the field here. He did not quite get the distance of the Saudi Cup and dropping back to a mile should suit him. He will go down as a short price favourite and any reproduction of this form in Saudi Arabia will make him hard to beat. Watch out for Caramel Chip who alternates wins and fourth places and his pattern streak indicates that his next outing should be a win.

Gold Cup

Tower of London won the "prep" race in Saudi Arabia after encountering traffic problems and I just question whether he will have recovered in time for the extra efforts needed in that race.  I like the profile of French raider Sober who has good form on staying races and although he was slightly disappointing on his seasonal return, he is bound to be sharper and fitter for this. He looks good value at double-digit odds.

Al Quoz Sprint

I think this is where Charlie Appleby gets his win of the night with Star of Mystery. The Godolphin filly is taking her task well in sprint races in Meydan and was albeit unlucky to come out second in her last outing. If she has carried her Carnival form, she should be bang at the finish. Her last conqueror, Frost at Dawn has legitimate claims as does Hong Kong raider California Spangle who brings some serious sprinting form from the east.

UAE Derby

Japan has a good record in this race and will have a strong representative in Forever Young, winner of the Saudi Derby. But it would be no surprise if it is countryman George Tesoro that comes up trump. The son of Best Warrior will foray beyond the mile for the first time and could prove a danger if he is left dictating operations up front. Ballydoyle don't go to Dubai on a whim and Henry Adams has shown useful form in his juvenile year and could prove to be anything on the dirt.

Golden Shaheen

Obviously, this will go to either a Japanese or American-trained horse. Out of the pack, I will pick Remake but it will be a competitive race.

Dubai Turf

I don't see Lord North 4-peating in this strong race and I don't know why Real World is even entered in this. Measured Time, Luxembourg and Do Deuce are all legitimate contenders but I think it will be a duel between smart performer Nashwa and top-class Voyage Bubble from Hong Kong. There must be confidence in the Gosden camp to have brought the Frankel mare and she should play a leading role despite a terrible draw.

Scheema Classic

The best race of the night by a mile. I know, Auguste Rodin is in there but he can throw a bad one as we all know. Look no further than Liberty Island. She is a Triple Crown winner from Japan and only found the incomparable Equinox too good in her last race. With the latter sadly retired, she is the best horse in Japan, period. She is so good, easily the punt of the night despite the amazing competition.

World Cup

Much is said of Ushba Tesoro and Senor Buscador but I think their duel in Saudi will have taken a bit from them. That is to say that they will not be able to repeat their performance in this short time frame. It think it will go between Newgate and Derma Sotogake with my preference to the Japanese raider who won the UAE Derby last year and has proven resilient and never outclassed every time he's been popped the question. 

Arc de Triomphe 2023 - Invincible Ace Impact races towards immortality

 Here's my take of all the horses running in the greatest race in the world.

Haya Zark - Only a Group 3 winner, can't be taken seriously.

Onesto - On his best day, can aspire to a spot in the frame but this looks too much for him.

Simca Mille -  His outside draw could be a problem but if things fall his way, he could spring an upset. One of the better each-way offerings.

Bay Bridge - His season has been rather disappointing given that grandiose things were expected of him after his Champion Stakes win last year. Won his last race at the distance, albeit against inferior opposition, but it wouldn't be surprising if he is in the whereabouts at the finish. Can place.

Westover - Seems to be a perennial bridesmaid and needs a win in a race like this to be considered a top horse. Lost in an agonizingly close finish in the King George and if he can leverage a good position from his No.1 draw, he will be a main threat. Cannot be discounted.

Hukum - He looks the best from the British raiders. No 6-year old has ever won the Arc and he could be the first one. There's not much chink in his armour. Group 1 winner with an impressive record, he rarely runs a bad race. If favourite Ace Impact does not show up on the day, he will be the horse to beat.

Place du Carrousel - She is a Group 2 winner, it's hard to see her playing a leading role here.

Through Seven Seas - Her record looks nothing to glow about but her second place to world's best horse Equinox was a real eye-opener. If she can repeat that form, she is in with an outstanding chance. Japanese horses cannot be underestimated in any circumstance and she could be the one breaking the duck and winning them their holy grail.

Free Wind - Detorri's last Arc ride but she lacks the speed to play a major role here.

My Hollywood - It wouldn't be entirely shocking if he pulled a Torquator Tasso and won this. One of the best from the German classic crop, he can be a leading player if things fall in place for him.

Feed the Flame - Very talented colt that has an impressive turn of foot on his best day but has failed to win consistently. His inside draw might be problematic as he comes from behind. Clearly has ability and cannot be dismissed but my feeling is that he can claim a place spot at best.

Ace Impact - The deserved favourite and still unbeaten after 5 races. He possesses a rare and fanstastic turn of foot and unless he has a bad day, he should win. There are doubts on his stamina but the way he won the Jockey Club seems to indicate he should handle it fine. At 4/1, he looks like a steal.

Fantastic Moon -  Boasts an unbeaten record at the distance, is the German Derby and Prix Niel winner. Looks a dangerous foe on the day and worth an each-way look at double-digit odds.

Continuous - How he trades at single-digit odds is mind-blowing. Being a St Leger winner is actually bad news for this race; even the great Nijinsky failed to land the Arc after the Doncaster classic. The recuperation time is too small even if classic race is won easily. The sole Ballydoyle representative seems to lack serious speed to be a live contender and he is a big day all day.

If Ace Impact is the superstar many (including I) think he is, then it's his race to lose. He has a proper jockey in Demuro who won the race before with Sottsass. If patiently ridden in midfield, the Cracksman colt can make good use of his potent acceleration in the long straight to put the race to bed. The danger will be if he is left too far behind with too much ground to make. This is something Demuro will need to judge well. Through Seven Seas is the dark horse that can potentially break all Europeans' hearts if she repeats her performance in the Takarazuka Kinen. The greatest day for Japanese racing if that would be the case. Mighty Hukum will certainly bring his A game and it will take a great one to bring him down.

Win: Ace Impact

Each-way: Through Seven Seas, Fantastic Moon 

EPL 23/24 - Week 5 - Gunners keeping pace at the top

Champions Man City still boast a perfect record after 6 matches and if there is a team that seems that it can keep pace with them, it's Arsenal. While still unbeaten, the Gunners will feel unfortunate to have lost points in their 2 draws. Arteta has his team firing on all cylinders and with a visit to lowly Bournemouth, anything other than 3 points will be disappointing and harmful to their title chances. Arteta's men will go into the match with some material injury news to their personnel with fitness doubts over Saka, Rice, Trossard and Saliba to name a few. Bournemouth are yet to win this season and new manager Iraola is under the gun already. With the injuries besetting the club, I don't expect Arsenal to win this in a canter; I think it will be more than a dogfight with the hosts working hard to get that first win. Arsenal should have too much firepower though and should not be losing this. At market prices that factor in their injury woes, I believe it's value to go for an all-out Gunners win.

Win: Arsenal

EPL 23/24 - Week 4 - Red Devils back on track?

  Man Utd are reeling at the moment and they seem to have gone backwards while everyone was expecting them to start the year all guns blazing. There are 2 changes that happened before the start of the season  that they are still trying to ingest. First was the sudden departure of stalwart keeper De Gra. To say it was a shock that the Spaniard was let go would be an understatement. Getting a keeper like Onana in was always going to take some settling in for the Cameroon international and the defence. His unorthodox style is so far causing more confusion and mayhem to the back four and the synergy will take some time to develop. At the other end, having a new designated striker like young Hojlund will also take time to gel with the forward line. He's not going to be a Haaland talent that took the EPL by storm in his first year. That said, the Red Devils are not playing badly; their last 3 matches were against top opposition in the form of Spurs, Brighton and Bayern. On Saturday, their opponents Burnley will not present such kind of force. In fact, the Clarets are more up to survival in the EPL this year. Man Utd should have too much firepower for them and I expect Rashford to provide the fireworks up front. They might scrape through it but in the end, the Red Devils should get the much-need 3 points.

Win: Man Utd

EPL 23/24 - Week 4

 Sheffield Utd v Everton - Home

Brentford v Bournemouth - Home

Burnley v Tottenham - Draw

Chelsea v Nott Forest - Away

Man City v Fulham - Home

Brighton v Newcastle - Draw

Crystal Palace v Wolves - Away

Liverpool v Aston Villa - Draw

Arsenal v Man Utd - Home

The current clashes between Arsenal v Man Utd will never match the intensity or heights of the Ferguson and Wenger era but the motivation is still well and alive for both teams as they try to usurp the title from Man City's grasp this year. Both have started the season rather tepidly while one would have thought they would be off the starting blocks with pomp. While they boast 2 wins out of 3 outings, the Gunners seem to lack the fluency and gusto that made them appealing as a team last season. They would then be going all guns blazing to overwhelm their adversaries. Struggling to beat so-called minows such as Nott Forest and Crystal Palace and not being able to overcome 10-men Fulham at home seem to indicate that something is amiss with the Gunners at the moment. Maybe the return of striker Jesus will help in the attacking department. Man Utd have been equally disappointing as they struggled to beat Nott Forest and Wolves at home and suffering a deserved defeat against Tottenham. While they overly counted on Rashford last season to bail them out, the England striker has started very quietly this time. Given the Red Devils' poor current form, I see it worthwhile going for a home win here; if the Gunners score early, the visitors could be in for a long day.

Win: Arsenal