Arc de Triomphe 2013 - The Revenge of Orfevre?

Sunday's Arc de Triomphe is the highlight of the racing calendar for me and it looks set to be a fascinating renewal with some major contenders on the line. But the main question has to be with Orfevre, the Japanese mega-star and unlucky runner-up of last year's edition. To me, if the "Crazy Horse" is in top form and in the right frame of mind on the day, there will be no race; he has the potential to crush the field, he is that good.

Here are some of my thoughts on the main aspirants to the throne.

Orfevre. Much has been written about his heartbreak loss last year. Trainer Ikee somewhat gave closure to why he threw the race away this week. No, it was not a lack of stamina or a running out of gas as many speculated, since he accelerated and galloped away after the finish line. It was the flawed genius with his antics again. His prep Prix Foy win a few weeks ago looked convincing, allowing for the premise that he has retained his ability and might even be a better horse this year with an enhanced mental. This year, he has an ideal post and the soft ground will be of no detriment, unlike with some others. Unless he has an off-day and fails to fire, I cannot see him out of the first 3. He is head-and-shoulders the best horse in the race.

Treve. Unless she turns out to have Zarkava-like abilities, I cannot put her on a pedestal that many others are inclined to do. She is unbeaten in 4 and has looked dominant in the Prix Diane and Prix Vermeille but I have some reservations on the form book there. Soft ground won't be a problem to her but her very wide draw should be of concern to her backers. Orfevre easily overcame that issue last year but it won't be easy for a 3-year old filly running first time against males. I don't believe the switch of mount from Dettori to Jarnet will make a difference as she's won with the latter on 3 occasions. She is classy and can make the frame, but she's a definite lay in my books for the win.

Novellist. He rose to the top of the European middle-distance division by trouncing the King George in record-time. Then, he labored to win at Baden Baden prompting many questions about his real quality. Again here, my view is somewhat contrarian to most. While I cannot argue that he lowered the time scale by 2 seconds at Ascot, I've got to ask who he beat; Trading Leather, Universal, Hillstar are certainly not genuine Group 1 performers. Jockey Murtagh says he was impressed with the horse at Ascot and though I certainly respect his views on most matters, I've got to wonder whether his view is distorted by the fact that the facile win was against average opposition. At Baden Baden, his hard-fought win was dismissed as a prep for the Arc but it could very well be that he was either past his peak form or the race was a reflection of his true ability. Still, having won 9 out of 11 races and being a strong German-bred, he's got to be respected, but while he might be in the placings, he's another lay for the win for me.

Kizuna. He's a Japanese Derby winner by Deep Impact and won the Prix Niel by a nose. I have him several notches behind Orfevre at this point and his current odds are way too short. I am willing to lay him for both the win and placings.

Ruler of the World. The Derby winner looked an unlucky second to Kizuna in the Niel, having endured a torrid trip to the finish line. The main question is how good he really is? The form at Epsom is certainly  not transpiring very well and he could be just a good horse. The fact that stablemate Leaing Light has been supplemented indicates that connections must not be too confident either. He will have to benefit from exceptional circumstances to win this. I don't think he will make the frame.

Al Kazeem.  He will relish the soft ground but the extreme-wide draw killed most of his chances today. He is a solid top-class horse that has done well since the start of the season but he hasn't faced horses like this before. Certainly a big lay for the win at current odds

Intello. He's the big question mark of the race for me. There are doubts about his stamina based on his pedigree, being by a Danehill sprinter mare. He's definitely top drawer and if his class can carry him through, he will be a major player. The indications are strong that he was not initially prepared for the race and was destined for the major 8 to 10 furlong Group races where he's excelled. However, the flop of flag bearer Flintshire in the Niel probably prompted trainer Fabre to divert his course to the Arc. I cannot have him as a Win based on his preparation but it wouldn't surprised me if he finished in the frame.

Flintshire. He was the major disappointment of the Prix Niel where he was supposed to show his credentials as a major player in the Arc. It could be that the soft ground played to his disadvantage on the day but the ground will not get any better on Sunday. Trainer Fabre has opined that Intello is his best chance, so it's hard to side with this representative of Juddmonte stables.

Leading Light. St Leger winner but I doubt he is good enough to win this. Being by Montjeu and having been supplemented, he's got to be respected but I don't share the confidence of the connections. He's a big lay for me.

It's got to be Orfevre for me, with the hope that he shows his true best on Sunday. If he succeeds where every Japanese runner, including the mighty Deep Impact, has failed, you can expect the roof to come down with the staunch army of Japanese supporters at Longchamp. It could be an Arc for the ages and Orfevre carries the hope of a nation. The "Crazy Horse" can do it. For the placings, I will go with Novellist and Intello.


Win: Orfevre
Place: Novellist, Intello
Lay for Win: Kizuna, Al Kazeem, Treve, Novellist, Ruler of the World, Leading Light

Pantheon of the greats

What a week-end! Every single selection hit, except for hapless Arsenal who managed to go lose at Norwich. Obviously, the main talking point after Saturday was the place of Frankel among the all-time greats. Best horse there has ever been, has been a very popular clamour. There is no right or wrong answer on this one and I stand among those that will fall short of calling him the best ever. He could very well be the best of them all, but it impossible for me to give him that ultimate accolade with absolute confidence or certainty.

Don't get me wrong; Frankel is an unbelievable beast, the likes of which I've never seen before. He's the greatest miler of all time. Better, I consider him the best racehorse to have ever run up to 10 furlongs. If there was any match race from 8 to10 furlongs and I could select any horse, it would be him. He's the most dominant horse that has ever run at those distances. He's proved it by beating champions of the caliber of Canford Cliffs, Excelebration, and Cirrus des Aigles. He put anything that opposed him to submission.

But he hasn't run at 12 furlongs, the distance of reference for the best of the best, in my opinion. This is the distance of the Derbies, of the most-prestigious Arc, of the King George. This is the distance that tells the difference in class between the great and the immortal ones. The awesome Dubai Millenium lost his invincibility on his Derby attempt, a lack of stamina that was the cause of his only defeat. This is the distance that some mighty champions of Montjeu toyed with the their challengers. This is the distance that made the legends of Dancing Brave, Ribot, Deep Impact, Zarkava, Sea Bird, Nijinski, to name a few.

Frankel did not attempt that mythical distance, and the travesty of it all, is that he seemed to have the pedigree, being a son of Galileo. Had he won a high-caliber Group 1 at 12 furlongs, he would be my undisputed champion of all time. Would he have flopped like Dubai Millenium? Or would he have been as dominant as he proved at shorter distances? Have would he have reacted on the Longchamp straight with Ribot working on his inside and Deep Impact, Zarkava and Dancing Brave breathing down his neck with their dazzling finish, for the ultimate Arc? Most probably, he would have trounced all of them, but alas, he has no form to prove it. On similar lines, Black Caviar is possibly the greatest sprinter of all time, but she's just that, a sprinter; not the greatest racehorse there has been.

Not many champions end their career undefeated. The mystique behind Frankel is that he can not only boast he never got beaten, but he destroyed almost any horse that crossed his path. Such was his dominance. He's racing's version of Lionel Messi; he won everything there is to win while beating every record, except winning the World Cup. Can he be considered the greatest?

There has never been a certainty like Frankel in race punting, at least not in these times. He will be missed. He's the benchmark against which all future milers and 10-furlong performers will be gauged. I believe he will stay thus for a long long time. Frankel was a destroyer, possibly not the greatest racehorse, but certainly the most dominant thoroughbred there has been.

Glorious in defeat

From a punting viewpoint, the Arc delivered aplenty with Orfevre easily hitting the Placings at unbelievably generous odds of 3/1. Obviously, from a sporting position, like many others, I would have loved it if he won it all. The race can be replayed time and again and how he lost the race would still be beyond anyone's comprehension. The start of the last straight was a sight to behold as he effortlessly stormed past some of the best middle-distance horses Europe had on offer. I was thinking of another demolition a la Danedream. Better, I was thinking that Frankel was right to stay home. Almost immediately, it unfolded into a nightmare as he idled and hit the rails as Solemia caught him on. World beater turned unlucky second.

Solemia ran the race of the life and deserves more credit than what she's getting, even though it will always be more the race that Orfevre lost and not the race she won. What he showed was he is a genius, albeit a flawed genius. If I hinted Camelot was, on talent, the best horse going in the race, I was wrong. Orfevre will destroy this field anytime if he finds a way to settle on these quirks. What a run from the impossible post position of 18 on a heavy sticky ground he'd never run before. I cannot see how his rider Soumillon can be faulted. He rode the perfect copybook race; he had the whip in the right hand in the straight. His ride deviated and idled through no fault of his.

Rarely does a horse come out of a lost race with his reputation enhanced. Orfevre is now a name that will warrant attention, not only within the shores of Japan. It looks improbable but Soumillon got tongues wagging when he mentioned an encounter with Frankel on British Champions Day. Frankel, Cirrus des Aigles, Orfevre. That would be something. What was interesting, if not intriguing, is Soumillon's assessment in the aftermath of Sunday's defeat that Orfevre was the best horse he'd ever ridden. Whether said in the heat of the moment or not, but it gives a reference point to Orfevre's exceptional talent; better than Dalakhani, better than Zarkava? On Sunday, we got oh-so-close to the realm of fantasy land.

Great horses of a lifetime...

Both of Thursday predictions won. Milan easily won against Bari and advanced to the next stage of the Coppa Italia and at Meydan, River Jetez was placed 3rd in her race.

The South African filly was very unlucky not to actually win her race as she was short of room at the rails. It reminded me very much a race at Meydan last year with Japanese champion Vodka also being stuck on the inside rails in a race she should have won. Anyway, River Jetez is certainly one to follow as the Carnival progresses. Also to follow is Godolphin's Simon de Montfort who won his race quite handily under Kieren Fallon; as I was writing in my previous post, this is a very classy colt and he does not seem to have lost any of his turn of foot. Godolphin and Mike de Kock are dominating proceedings as I mentioned they would, which is hopefully a good omen for my recommendations as long as I can pick their right horses.

I can't see anything of punting value for Friday. Japan is playing hosts Qatar in the Asian Cup in what should be an interesting match. The Australian Open is in full swing, and in my opinion, Nadal will at least reach the final. No punting or recommendations on this though as I haven't spent time assessing the main candidates to the trophy. I would think it will be between Nadal, Fed and Murray, but that's quite stating the obvious. No, I'm just bracing myself for this week-end's football and racing; in the meantime I'll finally go watch Secretariat the movie. I don't know much about the great horse besides it winning the Triple Crown and winning the Belmont by oh-so-many lengths, that seemed to have made its legend. Ahh, champion thoroughbreds... If I can leave the reality of punting a little bit, and fancy a 12-furlong race on a non-biased synthetic surface (say Meydan)...The Americans would bring Secretariat and Zenyatta, the British would come with Sea The Stars and Dancing Brave, the French with Zarkava and Peintre Celebre, the Japanese with Deep Impact, the South Americans with Invasor, the South Africans with Horse Chestnut and Pocket Power, the Australasians with So You Think and Makybe Diva, and the mighty Ribot would come for the Italians ... A wonder race for the ages... My trifecta would be... Sea The Stars, Deep Impact and Zarkava! and I am sure my selection will not be unanimous among other racing fans.

Ok, I'm off go to watch the movie about the great Secretariat...