Changing Landscape

This end of football season in the European leagues looks set to be the watershed to the impending massive changes to bestow upon them next year. With the great SAF retiring, Man Utd will be under a new manager after 27 years. But the winds of change have affected many other European powerhouses as well; in England, Chelsea looks set for the second coming of Mourinho and Pellegrini has apparently been given the reins at Man City. The best 3 teams in England will be under new leaders. In Italy, Milan is on the verge of getting rid of Allegri after a so-so first season. Inter are on the look-out for a new coach as well. In Spain, the much-maligned Mourinho has finally been booted out of Madrid, to the delight of Spanish fans in general. Malaga will also look for a new manager after the departure of Pellegrini. In Germany, Guardiola is taking over the powerful Bayern Munich. Finally, so far, in France, PSG are looking to replace want-away Ancelotti for whom Real Madrid came calling.

We are talking here of 8 big teams that played in this year's Champions League. This is bound to affect not only their domestic leagues but next year's dynamics in the UCL as well. It is too early to say whether teams like Barcelona will have the advantage of continuity with them. After all, much of it will depend on player personnel as well. Rooney looks to be out of Man Utd, Dortmund will be losing some key players, Real Madrid is already working on their list of surplus to requirements. And probably more importantly, Neymar will make his European debut, quite possibly under a Barcelona shirt.

English football itself is moving into a new era with the retirement of Scholes, Beckham and Owen. While their careers were already on the wane for the past few years, there is no doubt that their names are etched forever in England folklore for their contributions to the game. They were some of the finest to ever don a Lions shirt and have made their indelible mark.

The carousel round of managers and players will make for a hectic transfer summer season . A new dawn of football will start in August. The retired ones will be missed but football will hold its intrigue more than ever.

Cup consolation for Real

First, a salute to Beckham who's decided his boots at the end of the year. Same year as SAF, Paul Scholes and Phil Neville, who have defined Man Utd for the past 20 years. Becks is simply the best crosser of the ball I have ever seen. No-one can bend it like Beckham. Also, Becks is the best free-kick taker in the 25-30 yard range I have ever seen. Zidane could have been the best below 25 yards but Becks had deadly aim at longer ranges. Although he's won in 4 different leagues, I'm pretty sure he would be as equally happy or more so playing all his career at Old Trafford, like Giggs and Scholes. The fact that he's really stayed a humble guys throughout his massive on and off-field successes say a lot about the man. A real rare true icon.

Tonight sees the Copa del Rey final between Real and Atletico Madrid. On one hand, there's a divided Real team whose manager Mourinho has burnt all of his bridges to the club and is on his way out. On the other, Atletico will try to use these apparent conflicts to finally secure a win over their city rivals. This final also pits 2 men who've never lost a final, I believe; Mourinho and Falcao have been in quite a few important ones and always found a way to win. Falcao always seems pumped for these kinds of occasions.

My verdict is that Real Madrid will prevail. The final being at their home Bernabeu gives them a massive advantage. It is a mountain to climb for Atletico. I don't give much credence to the theory that Real will be hampered by the stories of disarray in which the club seems to embroiled; that Mourinho has lost the locker room etc. He may have lost the players' esteem but they are still a strong force that can cause damage when playing in unison. They can still rely on CR7 to put them on the score sheet. Atletico's best chance will be for it to go to the lottery of penalties. I think Real will settle this game sooner than that.

Win Copa: Real Madrid

Celebrations in Manchester

Old Trafford will be the the theatre of a special ending Saturday when SAF manages his last Man Utd home game. It is bound to be emotional. There's every reason to believe the players will show nerves on the occasion. The hosts will have experienced a week out of the ordinary. Their training will have been disrupted. So typically, you'd expect Man Utd to start slowly and possibly struggle. Against them is a Swansea team with nothing to play for except maybe as spoilers, as they did against Wigan last week. Although they won that game, they never showed any glimpse of doing so for most of the match and were lucky to capitalize on 2 Latics errors. That said, I think it is written somewhere that the Red Devils will give SAF the send-off he deserves. It might take time, but I think that once they get on the score sheet, the hosts could spend the evening banging goals to their manager's delight. Once the nerves are settled, the Fergie's players will be giving their all in one of the games of their lives.

I am not sure I am a fan of the FA Cup being played before the season end, but it's hard to visualize anything other than a Man City win. Wigan is involved in a serious relegation fight and they will not be entirely focused on the game. Man City should have too much firepower for the Latics. It might take extra-time or penalites, but in the end, the Citizens should prevail.

Win: Man Utd
Win FA Cup: Man City

The Greatest - Sir Alex Ferguson

I don't think there could be a more massive news than yesterday's in football. Sir Alex Ferguson retirement news is a bombshell in itself and the fact that it was just out of the blue made it all the more sensational. This is about the only manager many Man Utd fans will have known. And the greatest one that ever managed a football team. Like any sort of transitioning in any business, this is bound to hit Man Utd hard. Liverpool have yet to recover from their glory days in the 80's. Although it is hard to fathom that the current Red Devils will suffer that kind of drought, it looks far-fetched to think that without the man, they will be able to sustain the kind of trophy collection that they've been so accustomed to under his guidance. Only Fergie's mastery and vision could have withstood the threat from big spenders like Chelsea and Man City in the past years. Yesterday's news will have given these teams a mighty spring in their step, that this might be finally their time for dominance.

Without Fergie, there is no doubt that Man Utd will go to battle without their soul. They will fight as they always do, but there will be that invisible all-important ingredient missing. The rampant feeling is that David Moyes will be the anointed replacement. There's no doubt that he's an excellent coach who's been doing wonders at Everton for the past years. The major downside is that he's never won a trophy and does not have Champions League experience. He might still be the best one for the job, particularly for the long term. But for the short term, things don't look rosy for the champions. Changes will be inevitable and some will be destabilizing. The news that Rooney is again asking for departure; his request might have been prior to the Ferguson news but it still is one of the many challenges facing the club in this new dawn.

The chance to work with Ferguson was an appeal for foreign stars to join the club. It's hard to think that the attraction will be the same under a new coach. Man Utd is bound to find it harder in the transfer market. With Fergie, a game was never lost until the final whistle. Man Utd fans have abundant memories of matches being won in injury time. With their never-say-die attitude, Fergie's teams made 0 point into 1, 1 point into 3, and jaws of defeat into glorious wins; ask Bayern Munich in the 1999 European Cup, arguably Fergie's finest hour.

Although it is too early to make predictions, there is every reason to believe that Man Utd will fall short of making the same kind of points haul in the EPL next year. This does not mean that the Red Devils cannot win the league again or be a major force in football. It's just that their dominance and awe, as we know it today, is over. The change of the guard will impact, it always does. If there is no shift of power, there is a bound to be a major re-balancing of it. This is a new dawn for Man Utd and English football. The top end of the EPL will certainly be looking different than the ones in the last decades.

EPL preview

Here's hoping this weekd-end's selections turn out to be as good as last week's.

Everton v/s Reading. While the title is already decided, the fight to avoid relegation is very much up for grabs. Reading is one of the favourites to go down and my belief at the moment is that they will indeed drop. They have found it hard to find consistent good form all season and unless they can come up with a string of good results, I fear they don't have what it takes to stay in the Premier League. They can score boat loads of goals on their best day, but they can equally concede in multiples. This is a must-three points for Everton if they are to fight for a Top 6 finish. The good news for the Toffees is the return of Fellaini; without him, they lack that sparkle up front. Everton is a Win recommendation.

Man Utd v/s Norwich. It does not take a rocket scientist to know that the Red Devils will not be at full strength against the Canaries. Most of their thoughts will be on the upcoming UCL match against Real Madrid next Tuesday. Ferguson will be keen not to suffer any stupid, last-minute injuries against the visitors, given that the league is already in the pocket. I don't expect a vintage Utd display and while they might have to work for it, it's hard not to see Man Utd win at the end. It might be best to avoid this game altogether, but if you need a go at it, a win on the Mancunians is the selection.

Stoke v/s West Ham. The hosts will be missing defensive lynchpin Robert Huth due to suspension and this might play to the advantage of Andy Carroll for the visitors.Although the Potters have been disappointing of late, they are still a good force to be reckoned with at home. Stoke are a draw-no-bet selection.

Sunderland v/s Fulham. It seems that Sunderland are a team that need to be re-built as Martin O'Neill does not seem to be able to improve them any further. I believe they will end up in the middle of the table. Fulham also will have major questions to answer after a disappointing season, their only highlight having been their recruit ace Berbatov. Home advantage speaks here and Sunderland are the value draw-no-bet of the week-end.

Tottenham v/s Arsenal. Who's the best 3rd player in the world after Messi and Ronaldo? Many will say Iniesta or Neymar. I say Gareth Bale. As he showed against West Ham earlier this week, he can win a match on his own. His current form is spectacular and he's only going to get better. If he leaves Spurs for better skies, Tottenham will certainly a much weaker team. If they cannot control the Welsh wizard, Arsenal look set to have a long afternoon in front of them. As in previous editions, this match looks destined to have many goals. Both sides have potent attacks and quite generous defences. I will side with the home team as a draw-no-bet here.


Win: Everton, Man Utd
Draw-no-bet: Stoke, Sunderland, Tottenham

EPL and Carling Cup Final preview

Saturday's Carling Cup final will pit 2 teams with an ocean of class between them. Swansea is fighting for an Europa spot in the Premier League while Bradford is plying its trade 3 leagues below in League 2 football. There is no way you can go with Bradford City on this one. Granted, there have been shocks in finals before; just a few years back, Birmingham was on its way to relegation from the EPL and still managed to beat heavily-favoured Arsenal. The realilty is Arsene Wenger has lost more finals than he's won, so it was not a shock of cataclysmic proportions.

Here we have a Swansea team led by an upcoming manager in Laudrup, who will be keen to get the first major trophy of this fledging managerial career. They boast in the ranks one of the top strikers in the EPL today in Michu, who's been one of the revelations of the year. The welsh club are one of select sides, besides the usual top teams, that play good incisive football, that will create problems to any side they encounter.

The reality for Bradford is to try barricade its box and desperately rely on counter-attacks for a deadly goal or make the match last till the lottery of penalties. That would be their best chance of lifting the trophy against all odds. I don't think it will happen, no matter how nice a Cinderella story that would be. Bradford has a huge task facing this talented Swansea side. Looking at the odds, I will go for Swansea to lift the cup in the end, and although the chances are that they will settle the issue inside regular time, a draw-no-bet on them looks safe as well.

Here are my thoughts on some of the week-end matches in the EPL.

Arsenal v/s Villa. Not surprisingly, Arsenal seem destined to win nothing again. They were booted out of the FA Cup last week, they are nearly down and out in the Champions League against Bayern, and they stand no chance in winning the EPL. The best target they can aim for, like in previous years, is at least a 4th place finish in the EPL that will guarantee them UCL football next season. They will have to be wary of Benteke, the Villa striker that seems to be scoring for fun lately. I don't see many goals in this one mainly because the Gunners are bound to feel the effects of Wednesday's drubbing against the Germans, and the Villains will certainly opt for a defensive display to try to sneak a point out of the contest. Still, it might be good value to opt for Arsenal as a draw-no-bet.

QPR v/s Man Utd. I posed the question before the Real Madrid game on how good or bad were the Red Devils. I think they showed they were a very good team that could rival with the best of them any day. This team can play different types of systems; defensive, counter-attacking, offensive, man-marking, and the thing is that they are always a goal-threat with the likes of Van Persie and Rooney. The talent at the disposal of Sir Alex Ferguson is scary; Nani, Chicharito, Anderson don't even have a spot in the first team at the moment. Harry Redknapp's teams used to cause problems to Man Utd years ago, but it seems that he can't find the magic touch against them lately. The truth is, no matter the big signings since the start of the season, Rangers looks a very unbalanced team with a very suspect team play and even a maestro like Redknapp is having trouble righting the sinking ship. This could be a big night for Van Persie to add to his goal tally. Man Utd are a Win selection and they should go 15 points clear by this match.

Man City v/s Chelsea. The hosts have the advantage of not having had an European match to deal with in mid-week. Chelsea can be considered lucky to have scraped through Sparta Prague in the Europa League but they will definitely be feeling the exertions of that match. Last year's fixture was a tight one where the Citizens managed to win after going a goal down, and there is no reason to believe that the match will not be close again this year. They are still the 2 best teams in the EPL after Man Utd. With the seemingly renewed confidence of the strikers Aguero and Tevez, and with the efficient Dzeko, I believe the hosts have the answer to the Chelsea defence. They are a draw-no-bet selection.


Win Cup: Swansea
Win: Man Utd
Draw-no-bet: Swansea, Arsenal, Man City

Litmus test for the Red Devils

The Champions League first-leg match between possibly the 2 greatest sides in football gets under-way in a few hours. A few months ago, I would have said that Real Madrid was a banker to go through. They were, and are still I believe, the second best team in the world after Barcelona. Man Utd were, and are still, plagued by a woeful defence that sullies the good names of its predecessors. So, it was a no-brainer a few months back.

Some important variables have since changed and most of it is from Real. They are a club plagued by internal rife that has totally undone them in the domestic league. There is every plausible reason to believe that this could prolong to the Champions League. Mourinho is a great manager but he's shown he's a coach for 2-3 seasons at a club. His expiry date goes fast and it looks that his time in Madrid is up very soon. Worse, it looks like it won't be done with a happy hand-shaking, given the turmoil surrounding the club. All this has had an impact on the football from the team; they are a great team on paper but they've been overly exposed in recent months, showing many glimpses of a side that can easily undo itself. They will have to be at or near their best to overcome Man Utd.

This Man Utd side is unique in that there are so many polar and divided opinions about it. For some, they are a great team, close to the Treble team. For others, they are without any doubt several notches below and any attempt for comparison would be scandalous. This is why, I believe, this encounter with Madrid is the real litmus test. Beat them fairly and they will show they are a truly great side. I've said it before, I  like everything from this Utd team except its defence. I think their strike force and midfield is as strong as it's ever been. Robin Van Persie can score out of nothing and gives them unmatched firepower. The defence is a big concern. It is a mix of the unproven, error-prone and sell-past-date players that will make Christinao Ronaldo looking for a field day. Red Devil fans must hope that the back four can keep the goals-against respectable and let RVP and co do the damage on the other side of the pitch.

This tie is very much up for grabs. There are other story lines regarding Mourinho's good record against Ferguson. That's a fallacy to look at. They encountered twice in the Champions League and although the score is even, it should be the Scot enjoying a 2-0 score. When the Red Devils lost to Porto, they had a valid goal disallowed that would have settled the tie. The Portuguese were also lucky to pounce on a last-minute error by keeper Tim Howard to score the go-through goal. Were it not for that lucky result, Mourinho would not be bragging about his CL record, and who knows, maybe he wouldn't have been given the Chelsea manager role that made his name. The second time they met in the UCL, Man Utd outclassed and dumped Mourinho's Inter Milan team at the quarter final's stage when the Italians were favourites to go through.

I will sit on the fence on this one. Man Utd need to keep it tight at the back to have any chance. We will finally know how good or bad they are. In turmoil or not, Real Madrid are logical favourites to go through on paper. Enjoy the game.

EPL week-end - Man Utd can crush the league

It does not look as though the internationals that took place on Wednesday will have much bearing over this week-end's matches but it will certainly boost each single player that took part in England's beating of Brazil at Wembley (except maybe for blundering Gary Cahill). That was an impressive performance by the Lions and long may live the the midfield axis of Wilshere and Gerrard. Even with Neymar, Brazil is not the Samba team of old. In particular, when you have David Luiz from Chelsea as your rock at the back, there is a reason for Scolari to worry about his defence.

Man Utd can crush the league on Sunday if their main opponents fail to register full points. Everton are the visitors at Old Trafford and the Toffees inflicted their hosts a blow on opening day of the season by beating them by the minimum score at Goodison Park. David Moyes is one of my contenders for Manager of the Year as he's making them perform at a consistently high level since the start of the season. They are led by the mercurial Fellaini who's building himself a great goalscoring ratio for a midfielder. Man Utd rarely lose both home and away matches to the same team and they will want to make sure that the visitors are no exception to the rule. The Red Devils are in good form and seem to have Rooney back to his near-best. My only concern with them is that they are bound to have an eye on next Wednesday's Champions League game at the Bernabeu. It will not be surprising if Sir Alex Ferguson were to alter team selections on Sunday, given that they have a stronghold in the league and that the Champions League still remains a trophy he covets. Although this game looks to be tight, I do not see Man Utd losing this and they look good value as a Win at current market odds. In addition, whether their main rivals win or not on Saturday, I believe in continuing backing them for the title.

Tottenham v/s Newcastle. Spurs got a big blow recently over the injury of their main striker Defoe who's bound to miss at least their next few games. Adebayor is back from the African's Cup but is not certain to feature. Still, they are still potent in attack with the likes of Lennon, Dempsey and Bale. Newcastle go to White Heart lane on the back of 2 consecutive wins to give some breathing air to manager Pardew. They seem to have replaced the loss of Demba Ba with newcomer Sissoko who beat Chelsea on his own last week by scoring 2 goals on his debut. The Magpies are still missing mazy winger Ben Arfa and although they will play with renewed confidence I find it hard to support them against a strong Spurs team. Spurs are a draw-no-bet selection.

Stoke v/s Reading. The hosts are still going through some rotten form and there is no better way for them to get their season on track than playing at home against a lowly team. The Potters showed some of the defensive resilience they have been renowned for in recent years against Arsenal last week although they lost by the minimum score. Reading have gathered points here and there lately thanks to the late heroics of diminutive striker Le Fondre. The rest of the team will have to pitch in big time for their fair record to continue. I don't see a lot of goals in this one but I see this as a great opportunity for Stoke to start a good run.  They are a draw-no-bet selection.

Southampton v/s Man City. The Saints seem to be warming well to new manager Pochettino although the change looked an unfair sacking of ex-manager Nigel Adkins. Southampton have very good form at home and are led by in-form striker Rickie Lambert. They will pose problems for this City side who will be welcoming back their powerhouse midfielder Yaya Toure and possibly their defensive mainstay, captain Kompany. In Toure's absence, David Silva has been running the show but has not been served by the profligacy of their main strikers in front of goal. The problem with the Citizens this season has been their indifferent level of form. They can be outstanding in one game and capable of playing poorly in the next. They have the ammunition to win this game but even if they do, I don't think it will be by much. Looking at the market, Southampton with a 1 goal handicap lead is the selection.

Aston Villa v/s West Ham. How many more chances does Villa need more to finally register a win? It's bound to come one day, and it could very well come against West Ham on Sunday. Striker Benteke is on fire and is Villa's main hope. They cannot afford to lose against the Hammers or else this must surely be the sack for manager Paul Lambert. The Villains are recommended as a strong draw-no-bet against an average West Ham side.

The other games look capable of ending in any result and going for the draw in them might be rewarding.

Win: Man Utd
Draw-no-bet: Tottenham, Stoke, Aston Villa
+1 Goal Handicap: Southampton.

A last one for Frankel

This week-end is all about Frankel's last race and nothing has changed from my previous assessment that he will end his career in a blaze of glory to which he is so accustomed. Let the ground be worse than very soft, let the greatest foe he will have encountered come from France, let the naysayers mention the unlucky-bound 13th run; I think he will prevail at the end. I might be wrong. American fans know all about Zenyatta and her heart-breaking last race. His odds are short, yet look generous. I don't think he will destroy Cirrus; on good ground, maybe. But on heavy ground, the gap might be well short of the ocean-wide margins he usually leaves in his wake. Frankel to win, Cirrus for the placing; there's no certainty in racing particularly on heavy terrain, but this 1-2 looks to be the play to go for.

League football is back after the usual but not-so-interesting international World Cup qualifiers. There's always the danger that teams don't show up in optimum or true form after such a break because of player fatigue, missed trainings and preparation time etc, so there are always some nuggets that may prop up here and there.

Fulham v/s Villa. This is one of the best shouts of the week-end for a Home win. The Cottagers are very good at home and will have extra ammunition with the return of striker Berbatov from injury.

Liverpool v/s Reading. Liverpool are a better team than what their results suggest. I expect them to come blazing against the sorry visitors. Suarez could have a great scoring game here provided he's well rested from his trip from South America. Straight home win.

Man Utd v/s Stoke. It is no secret that Stoke play for the goalless draw away from home. They might even eke out an odd goal. If an out-of-sorts Man Utd shows up, like the one that got beat by Tottenham a few weeks, then Stoke have a chance for a draw. Orelse it should be another home win. Given that they have lost 2 games already, Sir Alex will be keen to have his team pumped up here for full points, so it might be worth going for the straight home win.

Swansea v/s Wigan. This can go either way. Both teams are two-faced and are capable of the best and worst.

West Brom v/s Man City. If it were not for its current injury woes, I would have given WBA a good chance to snatch a point here. Although they are still a strong team, City seem to have to labor hard to get the 3 points on their travels. They are not yet dominant. It would hardly be any surprise if the Citizens won this late as the hosts will certainly not hand it to them.

West Ham v/s Southampton. Can go either way. If I were to speculate, the hosts as draw-no-bet will be the safest way to go.

Norwich v/s Arsenal. The Gunners look to be a good draw-no-bet proposition here. Norwich has a leaky defence which the visitors will be keen to exploit. Arsenal have their defensive lapses of their own and are not sure to come out of the game with a clean sheat. They should prevail or come up with a draw in the end though.

Sunderland v/s Newcastle. I favour Sunderland slightly for this North East derby, only because of their home advantage. Sunderland looks good value as a draw-no-bet.

QPR v/s Everton. This could be the springboard for Mark Hughes' men to finally get out of their losing funk. Everton is not to be dismissed lightly and they are capable of giving a game to any team in the league on their best day. Long-shot punters should consider QPR as a serious draw-no-bet selection, but they do not offer enough guarantees for me to consider them a safe punt. Better to avoid this match.

In Spain, I see home wins for Malaga and Real Madrid, while Valencia and Barcelona look solid draw-no-bet selections.


Win: Frankel, Man Utd, Real Madrid, Malaga, Liverpool, Fulham
Place: Cirrus des Aigles
Exacta: Frankel/Cirrus des Aigles
Draw-no-bet: Valencia, Barcelona, Sunderland, Arsenal, West Ham

Super Cup and Week-end preview.

A couple of hours before the Super Cup between Chelsea and Athletico Madrid gets under way and I really fancy the Spaniards here. Gauging by their La Liga start, they look to be in great form. Much of their goal scoring  lays at the feet of their awesome striker Radamel Falcao, who has a knack of scoring on the big occasions and finals. At current odds, Athletico Madrid at +1.0 Handicap looks a steal as I see them either winning this or drawing in 90 minutes.

Some preview of some of the upcoming week-end games.

Tottenham v/s Norwich. The Canaries won this fixture last year but Spurs will be particularly keen to get their first win of the season here. Villa-Boas will be under big pressure should they fail to lose this. I fancy both teams to do worse than last year, and Tottenham should ride the home advantage here. They are a good draw-no-bet selection.

Man City v/s QPR. Straight win for the home side here although they are not in full flow yet, and did get a huge scare in this game last year.

Liverpool v/s Arsenal. Liverpool are riding the good and the bad and this shouldn't be surprising as new manager Rogers experiments with what his squad has to offer. Their 2 sub-par games against Hearts in Europe sandwiched a really good performance against Man City where they should have bagged 3 points. Arsenal need a goal and win quick to dispel any notion of post-RVP crisis. It might be adventurous to see Arsenal win this but it won't be surprising and I see great value in their odds as draw-no-bet.

Newcastle v/s Aston Villa. It will be rewarding to go against Villa this season and Newcastle will see them as easy fodder. Draw-no-bet should be safe with the hosts here.

Southampton v/s Man Utd. On paper, this should be a straight win for the Red Devils. However, they will be without Rooney and with a suspect defence. Traditionally, they don't have a great record when visiting Southampton of old, but these are different times. Provided they are effective on goal, Alex Ferguson's men should come away with 3 important points.

Real Madrid v/s Granada. Buoyed by their Spanish Super Cup win and their need to catch up in the league, this should be the start of a winning sequence for the Los Blancos.


Win: Man City, Man Utd, Real Madrid.
Handicap: Athletico Madrid +1.
Draw-no-bet: Tottenham, Arsenal, Newcastle.

Premier League 2012/13 Preview

In one swift move, that can be characterized as another moment of brilliance, Alex Ferguson has tilted the balance of power for the coming Premier League season. This is the move that everyone else did not want happen but which the Utd boss desperately needed to catch up with the might of neighbours City. Robin Van Persie's move to Utd is clearly a game changer for both the EPL and Champions League as the Red Devils can now boast about having the best strike force in the world; Rooney, RVP, Chicharito, Kagawa, and Wellbeck, not to mention that the equally good Berbatov is ailing on the sidelines. Since the massive news of the transfer of the Dutchman, rumours are abounding about the parting of Chicharito, and even if that were to happen, the strike force would still be most fearsome. Goals will be bountiful.

I don't have much doubt in my mind that the EPL crown will stay in Manchester this season. On paper, City are still a little better than Utd. They however need to show they can retain the title. It is always so much easier to get to the top than to stay there, as the saying goes. On the managerial side, there is no problem in that regard as Mancini has notched 3 consecutive titles in the Serie A with Inter Milan. The distraction of the Champions League should still leave him focused enough for the EPL challenge. Their main challenge he will face is keeping the team together and minimize off-pitch issues with the likes of Tevez and Balotelli. Although they have been rather muted on the transfer market so far, this City squad is most impressive and can beat any team on any day.

Going back to Utd, their weaknesses lie in defence and midfield, just like last year. Much of their hopes relies on the availability of captain Vidic. His non-availability last year was what caused their demise and they will be destined to the same fate if he spends much time on the sidelines again. He is irreplaceable. In midfield, there is a clear lack of playmaker; Paul Scholes is still high-class but he can only be used sparingly. It is clear that Ferguson wanted upcoming Eden Hazard or Lucas Moura to fill in that gap and the fact that he lost out on both counts will enliven the debate as to who will rule the Utd midfield. If Brazilian Anderson stays fit, he could be the one, but he's too often prone to injuries.

The title will certainly be between Utd and City and Londoners Chelsea or Arsenal should challenge for third place. Chelsea are an enigma team as they have players on the wane and interesting newcomers like Hazard. Di Matteo is a good coach and he's possibly their best permanent signing of the season. If Arsenal stay consistent the whole season, they are my favourites to get that remaining podium spot, even without RVP. Time and again, Arsene Wenger has shown that he can replace the players that have left, and the arrivals of Giroud, Cazorla and Podolski will possibly fill much of the gap. The problem with Arsenal, as I have been writing, is that there is a missing ingredient in Arsene's management that keeps them from reaching the top; that inherent will to win that Ferguson and Mourinho have, that filters through to the whole team and give them 10 extra points during a season. It's not about just pretty football or massive profit targets, it's about winning games when everything is on the line and bringing trophies and making winners out of players.

I see Tottenham under-achieving compared to last year. Clearly getting rid of Redknapp, one of the 5 best managers in the league, is a step down. Villa Boas is good, but does not compare. Liverpool are a re-building side and the arrival of new manager Rogers from Swansea will not make them title contenders.

For those that have an appetite for ante-post or such markets that take months to settle, the following below are my value punts for the EPL given the odds available today. Of course, the season flows and ebbs and prices change significantly during the year but at this stage, those odds look under-priced on the exchanges.

Winner: Man Utd/Man City

Top 2: Man Utd

Top 3: Man City, Man City

Top 4: Arsenal

Lay: Tottenham Top 3, Liverpool Top 4

Bad Blood

It's been a quiet week and I anticipate it to be as such until some event like the Olympics get started. Of course there is horse racing but with the wet weather that is plaguing the area, race cards are either being cancelled or proving hard to follow because it is impossible to gauge the form with the soft/heavy conditions. Also there is the Tour de France, but we all know it is a competition for a bunch of doped cyclists trying to prove a futile point. But the aerial shots of the French scenery are spectacular to watch as usual.

Keeping abreast of football activities during the off-season, there are some exciting reinforcements for the Premier League. Japanese Kagawa is the one that catches the eye for the moment after this transfer to Man Utd. I think he is looking like another great addition to the Red Devils. He played a key role in the three-pronged attack at Borussia Dortmund and has scored some beauties last year. He is quick and two-footed. It will be interesting to see Fergie opt for a Rooney-Kagawa-Chicharito strike force, and possibly do away with his preferred 4-4-2. Things look exciting at Old Trafford even though on paper, they still have room for improvement to match neighbours City.

The highlight of the week-end, in England at least, looks to be the boxing match between 2 prima donna's David Haye and Chisora. Much has been said about their off-ring antics, particularly Chisora who's as unstable an athlete I can think of. Slap to Klitschko during weigh-in, brawl with Haye during post-match...nothing honourable for him to cheer about (but then, boxing was never about gallantry). Fact is, Chisora speaks a lot but does not have the talent of David Haye. The latter is coming out of retirement, and if he's not too ring-rusty, he will prove too strong for his opponent. The bad blood that exists between the 2 should provide for an exciting bout. In the end, the more professional Haye should prevail, and that's the recommendation.


Win: David Haye

Decisive time

The big news going into the week-end are the imminent departure of Guardiola from Barcelona. I really hope he gets to manage an EPL team on his return. What he's achieved at Barcelona, particularly the kind of football they play and preach, is unbelievable.

The EPL reaches its crescendo with the upcoming Manchester Derby that will most possibly determine the season's winner. It's been a wild ride with momentum change from one club to the other and the match is really a 6-pointer. Clear advantage is for Man City at the present since they are at home and are on a winning run. It will be interesting to see what frame of mind the Red Devils are in, after their confidence-sapping game against Everton last week. Their main problem is their leaky central defence of Evans and Ferdinand. Vidic is a big missing element in that rear-guard. But obviously, Alex Ferguson's men always rise to the occasion when backed to the wall, and it would be of no surprise if they controlled the game and actually left with the 3 points. Man City's hopes rest mainly on the power of their Argentinian forwards in Aguero and Tevez. These 2 can wreck havoc in any defence, and will certainly have their opportunities to test de Gea. This game looks to be a cracker and hopefully the referee won't play any decisive role in the outcome. I think the Citizens will edge this in the end, but this is just my hunch.

Wolves are relegated as I've been repeating they would for weeks now. I think it's still ok to go against them and Swansea look good value to continue the visitors' winless run under manager Connor. The selection is Swansea as a draw-no-bet.

I also like West Brom's chances as it hosts Aston Villa. If I were to guess another team to be relegated, I think Villa would be prime contenders. The Villains still have some blind faith in manager Mc Leish, and that could prove their undoing. How ironic that he relegated their fierce rivals Birmingham last year, and he's about to relegate them now. Villa is an awful team to watch and their cause is not being helped by the continued absence of their prolific striker Darren Bent. West Brom as draw-no-bet is the recommendation.

My value punt of the week-end goes to Wigan against Newcastle. The Latics have performed admirably of late but they still have to gather points to secure themselves from relegation. Newcastle is my pick for overachieving team this year and they are certainly in contention for a Champions League spot. They will go to the DW Stadium with hope and confidence with individuals such as Cisse and Ben Arfa, who have the capacity to influence a game on a moment's brilliance. I will opt for Wigan here because they can make it hard for visiting teams to play their regular rhythmic football, as Man Utd has attested a couple of weeks back. I recommend Wigan as a draw-no-bet.

In La Liga, Real look set to put their mid-week UCL disappointment behind them when they host Sevilla. The Los Blancos are a sure win here as they march towards the title and that's the recommendation.

It's tough to gauge Barcelona's visit to Rayo.  The hosts are a tough nut to crack at home and will pose problems should the Catalans be not fully focused on the game, for obvious reasons. On the other hand, it could be that the visitors will show extra motivation to win the remaining games under Guardiola. Should Real not bag the 3 points during their earlier match, then Barcelona will try to pounce, but that I cannot see that scenario happening. It's just better to have a punt at Real's games at the moment, because they are the ones with the motivation to go all-out; the carrot is dangling in front of them.


Win: Real Madrid
Draw-no-bet: Swansea, West Brom, Wigan

Flip Flops

The football form was good over the week-end, with 5 selections out of 6 hitting the target, but the golf prediction on Tiger and Rory was a helluva-wayward shot to say the least. Both finished with a dismal +5, far from the Top 10.

What else to say in EPL? City have blown it big time. Alex Ferguson is an unparalleled genius. Man City's money cannot buy what Man Utd have; their manager, their heritage and their instilled desire to win. This 20th title (who can doubt it's not a done deal) will feel super sweet for the Red Devils, that's for sure.

What a turn around of events between La Liga and EPL. A few weeks ago, it looked like Real Madrid was cruising easily to the title in Spain, while the Manchester teams were battling it out to the wire in England. Suddenly, Man Utd have killed off the rest of the pack in a quick and decisive fashion, while Real's 10-point lead has frittered to the point where they have Barcelona smelling blood. A four point advantage is still consequential, but Guardiola is fooling no-one by saying that his team's chances to go top is near-impossible. Real are still masters of their destiny and should win this, but one more faux-pas and Barcelona will be the ones to enjoy all favouritism come the Clasico in a few weeks time.

In a few hours, Barcelona should cut the gap to just 1 point when they host Getafe. They should win this game no problem.

So what to make of the Tiger and Rory flops in the Masters? They both had a good opening round on Thursday and then it all went downhill from there. Maybe Tiger still needs have to work on a few more things and that the Augusta Major came a little too soon since his win just a couple of weeks back. Maybe Rory shouldn't have taken 3 weeks off, and would have been better off with a prep tourney a week before the tournament? Just maybe's. But I felt Lee Westwood was the one to feel that this was one he should have won. He was the best at hitting fairways but just couldn't get hot on the putter. The fact that he putted 21 times more than Phil Mickelson, yet still finishing with the same score, and only 2 shots off the winner, says it all. It wouldn't be surprising if Westwood captured his first Major (finally) soon.

Win: Barcelona

Nou Camp braced for goals

As expected, the Dubai World Cup meeting was a tough read as far as the form and competition were concerned, and it was with great satisfaction to see the predicted lays confirming their inferiority on the day. All the lays proved correct. The American-trained horses could only muster a best-placed fifth; the reason is simple, they are not as good on the synthetic as the Europeans, Australians or Asians. They rock and rule on the dirt, that's it.

While all the big lays were correct, some of the fancies mentioned, did disappoint, particularly Musir and Sepoy. For the latter, it was probably a case where he did not act on the surface. Same for So You Think.

I was also keeping an attentive eye on the Florida Derby where Union Rags, the favourite for the Kentucky Derby, disappointed to a 3rd place finish. Analysts can argue about his difficult trip and the track not being suited to his dash, but truth be told, he failed to give the showing that was expected of him since his last impressive outing. I must say he is no longer the sure type he looked to be a few weeks ago, for the May showdown. He's still a very good horse among the current batch, but it remains to be seen if there is another out there that can trouble him in a few weeks time.

Football-wise, Man Utd are giving a lesson to Mancini and co on how to close the deal. What an amazing turn of events in the past few weeks where the Citizens have seen their lead crumble like a pack of cards. The comments from Mancini and sorry-Vieira lately, show that they are not coping at all with the pressure. It goes to show what a master Alex Ferguson is; he must be laughing his heart out. A genius, he is. This is their title to lose now, and it would be a brave one thinking otherwise.

Tonight is the second leg of the Champions League between Barcelona and Milan. I mentioned prior to the first leg that Barcelona will go through and quite certain they will following their scoreless draw at the San Siro. I believe that Barcelona will out-score Milan, even if the latter are entitled to find the net. Whichever angle I look at it, I cannot see Milan qualifying. They got trounced visiting Arsenal in the previous round. They were completely outmatched by the Spaniards last week although they kept it to a decent 0-0. Sure, they managed a 2-2 last time they visited the Nou Camp during the group stages, but they were again outclassed and only scored the tying goal in injury time on a set-piece. Everything looks in favour of Barcelona tonight, and I recommend them as a Win in 90 minutes.

Win: Barcelona

Taking on the world

A couple of disappointing results on Sunday marred what looked to be a very promising week-end after Saturday; Juventus and Sevilla failed miserably, Man Utd drew and the rest of the selections won.

Man Utd made yet another remarkable comeback but I don't know whether to label their 3-all draw at Chelsea as a point gained or two points lost. On the basis of the game itself, I believe they deserved to get the 3 points out of the match; without their 10-minute folly at the start of the second half, they were mostly the best team on the pitch. But their problem is their weak defence. Johnny Evans (again) on the team-sheet should just give shudders to Utd fans. Rio Ferdinand is clearly not the defender he once was. Their chances to concede goals goes dramatically up with the absence of Vidic. Goalkeeper De Gea has been the subject of ridicule since he joined the club but his save from the Mata free-kick in the end was just top-class.

Chelsea played without core players like Terry, Cole, Drogba and Lampard and were mainly opportunistic on their goals. Again, their best player turned out to be Mata. Stifle Mata (if you can) and the whole Chelsea machine comes to a halt; I don't see them getting any silverware this season.

So at the end of it all, Man City open a 2-point lead at the top but Sir Alex's team looks to have turned up the notch a few levels, just as you'd expect them to at this time of the season. City's remaining schedule looks arguably easier and they will greatly benefit from the return of some of their stars from the African Nations Cup. Provided they don't choke, the odds are still in City's favour.

In racing, Alpha turned out an easy winner in the Withers. It will be interesting to follow the Triple Crown trail this year with its record number of entries including quite a few from powerhouses such as Ballydoyle and Godolphin.

Just following some of the latest racing news that Black Caviar might feature at Dubai World Cup night before going to Royal Ascot. I dearly hope that happens and what's certain for me is that there'll be only one horse to punt on. Even with the other superstar sprinter Sepoy to challenge, Black Caviar is just a notch above any other sprinter in this world. Every racing fan is certainly waiting for her to strut her stuff on the world stage this year.

What kind of Clasico?

Interesting week-end in the Premier League where Man City are set for a tough test at Chelsea. This game is really too close to call, and it can go either way. That's one major hurdle in the Citizens' quest for the title and if they get 3 points out of it, their odds will surely go even lower.

The surest outcome in the EPL looks to be at Old Trafford where the reeling Red Devils welcome Wolves. The hosts suffered yet another setback when they lost Vidic for the season. Given that they probably were given the hair dryer treatment the whole week by boss Sir Alex Ferguson, they should be able to squeeze through this game. It's safest to go draw-no-bet on them, given that confidence must be at an very low level at Utd.

All the other games in the EPL look tight, so I wouldn't be surprised to see lots of draw matches this week-end.

The focus in European football is really on Sunday's El Clasico. These Clasico's have disappointed last year as they were subject to an abysmal level of un-fair play. So I will not have my spirits raised on those matches this year even though they clearly will oppose the 2 best football sides in the world, not just Spain or Europe. I've mentioned over the past weeks that Madrid look set to end years of domination from their Barcelona rivals, and this game on Sunday will be right for them to prove that they can be on a par with their fierce rivals. Barcelona are still the best team in the world and will be hard to beat, but they have lacked success on the road this year and nothing seems to indicate that they will have improved on their travels as they reach the Bernabeu. Madrid has the hunger and are driven by a manager that practically never loses at home. I see value in backing the hosts as draw-no-bet in this game. Obviously, it's never a sure thing to go against Barcelona, but the conditions look ripe to be on the side of the Los Blancos, assuming the inherent risk element involved. I think Madrid will be the side partying after the game.

In Germany, I like Dortmund as it hosts Kaiserslautern. A draw-no-bet on them should be safe.

Draw-no-bet: Man Utd, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund

Clear out

Both Manchester teams kicked out of the Champions League at the group stage! While City beat Bayern, albeit with futility, the Red Devils were beaten and KO'd in Basle.

There is no doubt which part of Manchester is hurting the most right now. The words at Old Trafford must be Clear Out! If the Carling Cup defeat at the hands of Crystal Palace must have started the clearing process, yesterday's defeat in Switzerland will most certainly have upped the urgency! I have a feeling that a lot of names, big or small, will not come back after next Summer after this disastrous exit from the Champions League.

The problem yesterday though was mostly Rooney. His mind is clearly not in his football since his family's scam accusation problems. How many goals has he scored since they were made public? One measly goal... On his best form, he would have scored at least 2 yesterday.

The other obvious problem at Utd is the injury list. There was no Chicharito, Berbatov or Owen to bail out the severely depleted attack. The only real playmaker of the team, Cleverley, was also out. One cannot help but ask if Sneijder would have filled beautifully in that spot, only if he had been signed!

However, in the end, the manager mostly always gets it right and although the ship is showing serious signs of sinking, Sir Alex Ferguson has proven to have the magic touch to bring it up again.

Man City for the title, as I have been writing, looks very cozy at the moment though.Very cozy indeed.

Crystal clear at the top

6 wins out of 6 recommendations over the week-end. Seem to be riding a great form at the moment. Man City, Man Utd, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Stuttgart and Schalke all won.

In the EPL, it's NO longer premature to say that the title will go between the 2 Manchester sides. I honestly cannot see any other team disputing it. And if I have to make a bold prediction, Man City are in a position to win the Premiership very handily this year. Just my opinion. At the moment, the Red Devils are huffing and puffing, missing the influence of Rooney up-front as they try to cover for the lack of a real play-maker with the absence of Cleverley due to injury. They must ensure that they do not lose points during their relatively modest form of late, or else City could open an insurmountable gap by Christmas time. Obviously, things will change and even the Citizens' form will suffer the normal season's ebbs and flows, but one cannot help feel that they have a deep-enough squad to withstand the challenges ahead. If Mancini can steer the ship alright, they are in a royal position to win it. Never discount Alex Ferguson's men though, they will never give up the fight, certain not to their neighbours!

I have the same feeling regarding Real Madrid in La Liga. They are getting better and better, they have Mourinho, they have Christiano Ronaldo, and they have the upper hand on Barcelona right now.  Certainly the 3 hard-earned points at the Mestella this week-end will enormously help the Los Blancos at the end of the campaign. The Blaugrana just cannot afford to lose points as Madrid look to be a very strong leader.

At the moment, for those playing the long view/big returns game, it might make sense to start taking a gradual position on both Man City and Real Madrid to win their respective titles.

On Champions League Tuesday, I like Bayern Munich to overcome Villareal at home. The hosts lost to Dortmund over the week-end, a game which turned out to be a trap as I was mentioning during my preview. However, Villareal is a club in transition and although they have kept a clean sheet in their past 3 games, their level is certainly not up to par to previous years'. The Bavarians will be keen to win this game to secure top spot and I just cannot see them failing against the struggling Spanish team. The hosts are a strong recommendation for a draw-no-bet.

Draw-no-bet: Bayern Munich

Huge Week-end

A fantastic week-end of racing and football is on the menu, and it's hoping that the punts turn out to be as great as well.

Let's start with the Breeders' Cup where I cannot see Goldikova coming out of the placings. Draw is good, track is good and she's encountered better opposition. I can foresee just 2 negatives, if any. That she could get boxed in the straight from the rails. But I hardly see that happening with a seasoned jockey like Peslier. The second negative would be if the turf turned too soft. It looks like it will be a mixture of good to yielding; obviously the firmer, the better for her, but the ground conditions should be alright for her. I think the Queen is set to win her last race, and if she doesn't, she should be in the second or third. A Place recommendation on Goldikova looks safe to me.

In the same race, I re-iterate my previous observation that Strong Suit does not have the credentials to win this race. He's too short at 4/1 and is a big lay in my books. I cannot see him winning a match-bet against Goldikova. So I recommend a Lay to Win on him, and I also confidently recommend Goldikova in a match-bet against him.

The main race is the one everyone wants to win and So You Think will carry Europe's or Australasia's hopes, whichever angle you look at it. It will be a tall order for the son of High Chaparral. Pedigree-wise, the dirt will not suit. He's going to sport blinkers which he hasn't done since a couple of years back. He comes over a difficult October with 2 hard races in the Arc and Champion Stakes. Basically, he's got hardly any decent rest for this race. Remains to be seen how jockey Ryan Moore will cope on the dirt surface. To be seen whether trainer O'Brien has mismanaged him yet again. All questions marks of note, but if there is a horse who can do it against the odds, it will be him. His critics pound him for not being the super horse he was billed out to be Down Under. Maybe he disappointed in 3 losses in Europe, but to me, there were excuses to all of them, which I've covered at length before. He gained my admiration when nearly winning the Champion Stakes after only 13 days rest from the Arc. I hope he wins the Classic, but it is more hope than confidence.

Uncle Mo is the favourite of the race and although he is possibly the best miler on dirt, he will have to stretch to cover the 10 furlongs. Any chance he had of winning was scuppered with his outside draw, in my estimate. He is a stalker of a horse that is never off the pace and things will be harder for him from the outside post. His odds are way too short and it makes sense to oppose him; I recommend to Lay him as Win.

In football, I cannot think of a better way for Man Utd to celebrate Alex Ferguson's extraordinary 25 years at the helm, by beating Sunderland. Steve Bruce's men have no chance of winning this. If they are lucky, they can squeeze in a point. But I believe the Red Devils will win this and recommend them as an outright Win.

Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City are all recommended as draw-no-bets as I don't see them being bothered by the inferior opposition they will be facing.

In La Liga, Real Madrid is a banker to beat Osasuna. I just cannot see them being held by Osasuna, so I recommend the Los Blancos as an outright Win. Barcelona face an arguably tougher task in Athletico Bilbao but they should prevail at the end, and are also recommended as a straight Win.

Win: Real Madrid, Barcelona, Man Utd

Draw-no-bet: Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City

Place: Goldikova

Match-bet: Goldikova

Lay: Strong Suit, Uncle Mo