Blue Manchester in trouble

AC Milan, Man Utd, Bayern won and Musir finished in a rather disappointing 3rd place.

The suspected change in leadership in the EPL materialised as the red part of Manchester took the reins away from their blue neighbours. A few months ago, I was writing that this year's La Liga will go to Real Madrid and the EPL will go Man City, with the view that any one of them winning will be rewarding. The first one looks spot on, the second prediction looks fuzzy at the moment. The Citizens still have the advantage of receiving Man Utd at the Etihaad in one of the remaining games, but the momentum has currently turned into Utd's favour. The tide can still swing either way as I expect both to drop surprise points during the remaining fixtures. It will be a tight race but Man Utd are certainly in the driver's seat at the moment and deserving favourites. They are definitely ready for the title run-in while City have a mental hurdle to grasp and overcome, or their title chances could be ruined very rapidly. Exciting duel indeed.

Anyone seen any of the Rooney's penalties lately? It is obvious the guy gives it a good practice as he puts them spot on with no chance for the goalkeeper. Besides one blip when he slipped and missed last year, his penalties have been perfectly dispatched out of the keeper's reach. Contrast him with former team-mate Christiano Ronaldo, who can be as effective, but reacts to the keeper's movements to place his shot, virtually and un-sportingly cutting off his dash in the process. Give me a Rooney penalty to watch anytime.

The Super Saturday Meydan fixture did not go much in the way of the favourites given the ultra-competitive nature of the cards. The results do not give an indication of what the winners could look like on Dubai World Cup day, but they have allowed for certain fancied horses to be removed out of the equation. In this regard, Bold Silvano flopped again and does not look a contender for the DWC, even though connections are pointing out that he had a problem with his tongue over the bit during the race. Same for Gitano Hernando who was expected to find his mile distance too sharp but cannot be expected to improve wonders in 3 weeks time for the big race. The only 2 DWC horses that returned from a positive bulletin were Monterosso, who finished a creditable 4th and will be expected to be better for the run, and Master of Hounds who won on the turf course and might warrant a return to the Tapeta for the DWC.

In golf, Rory Mc Ilroy did not win but came out an eye-catching 3rd in the WGC Championship, one week after winning the Honda Classic. The Irishman certainly has been impressive in racking up quite a few Top 10 finishes and it will be interesting to follow his percentages in that regard. He's certainly getting better and better and warrants more confidence than any other golfer out there, including Tiger Woods.

Meydan Week 6

Godolphin are out in full force in Week 6 of the Carnival and it will not be surprising if they win the bulk of the races. Some leading contenders for the Dubai World Cup will be in action, so the Thursday meeting is going be give some good indication of their progress towards World Cup night.

Race 1 is for Arabian pure-breds and I must admit I know nothing about them except that they are much more difficult to train than thorougbreds!

Race 2, 1m3f Handicap. Indications are that this race will go to Godolphin, unless Jamr decides otherwise. The Blue team have leading duo Holberg and Spring of Fame to count on and I think the winner will come out of these 2. Holberg has serious form from last year and is coming back after a year layoff. He might need the run. Spring of Fame came a good second to Prince Bishop about 3 weeks ago, and should improve on that run. My preference goes to Spring of Fame as a Place. Mr Brock always gives a good account of himself but the age and distance will play against him. Should be at good odds to be laid against for layers.

Race 3, 2000 Guineas. An open contest which should go to either a Godolphin colt or Mike de Kock's Mickdaam. Let me say here that Dark Matter from Singapore is possibly the best horse in the race and has beaten many of the same opponents before. However, he has run an extra race since he beat all these and is bound to lack some freshness as a result. He's a current lay at his current odds of 4/1. Of the Godolphin representatives, I like Kinglet the most and the way he finished his last race means that the distance will suit him perfectly. I recommend him as an each-way.

Race 4, 1m4f Handicap. This is quite an open contest and I will be interested to follow Irish Flame, who was one of last year's main disappointments from the de Kock stable. Word is that he's in much better shape now than last year, but he'll have to show it on the track first. If he's fit and at his best, he should be in the first 3, but that's not certain. Too open to call.

Race 5, 1m Group 3. Bold Silvano makes his comeback in this mile race. He's bound not to be 100% for this race after coming from such a layoff and with his main aim being World Cup night. Still, if he's serious about the World Cup, he has to show he's still got ability against some useful sorts in that race. My recommendation is an each-way on him.

Race 6, 1m1f Group 2. The main race of the card and one main prep for the DWC. This is going to be a hot contest and it won't escape the grasp of either de Kock or Godolphin again. Dubai Prince is without doubt top-notch but there are many questions regarding him. He's a lightly-raced colt that has been beset with injuries. His odds look way too short. I think Mendip and Master of Hounds will run well. They have the benefit of a run a month ago and will have the necessary improvement in them. Prince Bishop has been impressive in his win 3 weeks ago and could be involved in the placings. My selection would be a Win couple on Master of Hounds and Mendip, and that should provide cover if one of them wins.

Race 7, 1m1f Handicap. Mutahadee was impressive on his last win and should at least be in the placings. I have him as a Place.

Win: Master of Hounds/Mendip

Place: Spring of Fame, Mutahadee

Each-way: Kinglet, Bold Silvano.

Musings from the week-end.

6 winning recommendations out of 8, with the remaining 2 voided, is what I would call a super week-end. Barcelona, Real Madrid, Man Utd, Lazio, Inter and Napoli all won, while Arsenal and Tottenham drew for voided bets.

Man Utd have that will to win, and even with 10 men, they managed to get the 3 points. It's been well reported that this is no vintage Man Utd team, but I would say this Man Utd team is by far over-performing than its predecessors. Of course, their hopes for the title are being greatly aided by the misfiring of their rivals, none more so than Arsenal that can't shake off their 'choker' mantra. The Gunners could still win it at the end, given their easier schedule, but losing 5 points to West Brom is not what you would typically call title-deserving. Chelsea are winning again but they have too much ground to cover. Man City and Tottenham definitely look out of it.

In La Liga, it was business as usual with Barcelona and Real Madrid winning. This is just great from a punting point of view as the results are very predictable. At this point, these 2 teams are doing enough to win their matches, with their minds on their direct clashes in League and Cup games and most possibly Champions League. Mouth-watering prospects for football fans.

In Italy, Inter are only 2 points back of Milan. Their improbable qualification at the hands of Bayern in the Champions League will have given them renewed self-confidence, and this team is certainly good enough to win the Serie A again, and also reach the final of the Champions League. Milan seem to be out of gas, and the momentum is definitely on Inter's side.

Some off-field football news with Capello handling the armband to Terry again. It amuses me that the protagonists in this saga namely Capello, Terry and Ferdinand are making such a big story out of it. Does the England fan care? Or does the England fan care whether these flops are going to finally win a trophy? The whole England setup (team, staff) have left such disappointment in the wake of the last World Cup that the decisions or indecisions about the captaincy sound superfluous.

Finally a note on racing where it was announced today that Bold Silvano won't make the Dubai World Cup. Shame really, I had real hopes on seeing him in the first 3. Also, Snow Fairy won't make the Scheema Classic. Oh well, I'm sure there'll be lots of opportunities on the race card to pounce on. This week I'll sure be keeping up to date with the developments and countdown leading to this great meeting. And I'll be sure to keep this blog posted on any value bets I can find on the all-weather cards and football. Thanks for staying tuned.

Meydan super Thursday

Arsenal and Barcelona won, but Bayern Munich surprisingly lost at home to Schalke. I can't recall in recent years Bayern losing 2 games in a row at home, but under Van Gaal, they are doing things that have not traditionally happened to them. Barcelona won an important 3 points at Valencia. Real Madrid plays on Thursday and should take the 3 points at home against Malaga. A Win on the Lost Blancos is recommended.

The Super Thursday card at Meydan has some really juicy match-ups. I like Musir in the Maktoum Round 3 Challenge.  Obviously Twice Over will be making his seasonal debut and is the one to watch, but I suspect the Henry Cecil colt will need the run and will only be made to peak come the Dubai World Cup. I fancy Musir as a Place for this race. He might also be WIN good-value at 4/1 for the more adventurous. I also like Simon de Montfort as Place in the Dubai City of Gold Stakes. If he runs to his true potential, there is no-one in this race to match him. The dark horse is Interaction, the Argentinian star, who was only 3 lengths in 3rd from Bold Silvano on his seasonal debut.

Win: Real Madrid
Place: Musir, Simon de Montfort

Mike de Kock in force

I was mentioning that a Place bet on Monster Crunchie at better than odds-on, would be worth it for punters looking for a bet. The Deep Impact filly came out third and was available at around 3/2 Place last time I checked, so hopefully there were some of you that latched onto it. I could not outright recommend her as a new-comer, but it gives me confidence that my analysis was correct. I tell you, these Deep Impacts are worth watching, just like the Sea the Stars progenies will be in a few years time.

To continue on the racing streak, tomorrow is Meydan day. At the risk of being repetitive, it seems to be another fruitful meeting for the de Kock stable. It will just be a matter of picking the right horses for the stable. "Musir is flying and should go close" according to the trainer. These kinds of bullish comments often mean the expectation is very high. I was not surprised when Mike said that Bold Silvano was his best ever World Cup hope after the devastating win by the son of Silvano last week. But I was a little surprise he did not say that both Bold Silvano and Musir were his best hopes. Anyway, Musir is a classy horse who's only disadvantage on Thursday will be to get rid of cobwebs after a 325-day absence. I recommend him as a Place bet.

Out of other de Kock runners, I like classy filly Raihana to also Place. It will be interesting how she measures with Godolphin's Kingsfort, who I rate very highly. I also like Zanzamar; my only concern is that Richard Hills has a tendency to mess up on short favourites, in my opinion and experience. Golden Sword had a great last race which seems to show that he was back to his best, so is recommended as a Place in a race that seems winnable.

Place: Musir, Raihana, Golden Sword

Friday Lingfield Preview

Bold Silvano won at Meydan today and although I am not one to jump to conclusions, I must say we might very well have seen the future Dubai World Cup winner. He won with authority against a talented field on his first outing on the Tapeta surface. And he was obviously not at his peak fitness. If he stays injury-free and moves forward as expected, he will take all the beating on World Cup day. The other horse that caught the eye in the same race was Interaction, the Argentinian star. He had a horrible trip but still managed to stay on for 3rd place. I don't think he would have won the race but that run will have brought him on enormously, and if he runs to his true potential, he is one to follow during the Carnival.

Staying in racing, I like Baileys Agincourt in the 14.20 Lingfield card on Friday. Mark Johnston's horses are on fire, and this is a weak contest for the son of Beat Hollow. A repeat of his last run should see him out in the first finishing 3. So a Place on Baileys Agincourt is recommended.

Place: Baileys Agincourt

Bold run from Bold Silvano?

Fulham and Real Madrid won their matches for a perfect one-two punch. Now we have confirmation of a dream final between Barcelona and Madrid. We'll see how to make of it in due time. But I watched a "supposedly-weakened" Barcelona team tear away Almeira. You wouldn't think that team was resting a few of the first-team players; their fringe players can fit in straight in their awesome football.

Tomorrow is racing day at Meydan. By all accounts the meeting last week was very disappointing as both of the de Kock horses I relied on failed to fire.

This week, Bold Silvano, the much-touted son of Silvano makes his seasonal debut. According to his trainer, he's 85% ready and a "big run" is expected. Translate this into a Win is expected. But wait a minute, there are other big guns in there as well; Last year's Dubai World Cup favourite Gitano Hernando also makes his come-back as he prepares for the big race again. So does Interaction, the South American star who went to Europe in a failed bid to run in the Arc last year. Al Shemali and Crowded House are of Group level as well. A great race with 5 Group 1 winners. I will still stick with Bold Silvano as there are only positive vibes from the training yard regarding his form and fitness. I believe the best from South Africa can match the best the world has to offer in Dubai. Bold Silvano is recommended to Place in the first 3.


Place: Bold Silvano

Let the Dubai Carnival start

A totally lacklustre Arsenal side lost at Ipswich for an absolutely shocking result! I wonder what excuses Wenger will come out with this time... No excuses from me; my bad for having a totally misplaced faith in a team that does not seem to have the hunger to win when being under pressure, and giving out a bad recommendation on them. This result is as disappointing as they come. Fortunately "trusty" Barcelona easily won against Betis and limited the damage. Messi got another hat-trick and it's just amazing how easily he and Ronaldo are racking up hat-tricks. We are at a unique moment in the history of football where two phenomenons are at the peaks of their powers at the same time, and leaving everything in their wake. Whether you're a Madrid or Barcelona fan or none, it's just time to sit back and enjoy that spectacle.

Let's talk racing now and I'm pretty excited as the Dubai Carnival gets underway at Meydan on Thursday. From a punting point of view, the racing over there can be very hard to assess for many reasons; the horses are coming in from a long break and therefore it is hard to gauge their actual form and fitness, particularly during the first meetings;  it's also difficult to handicap many of the horses because they come from different places such as South America, South Africa, Europe etc; finally, the fields are usually very big and tactics and draw play an important role in the outcome of the races. Still, the main appeal of Dubai racing for me, is that Godolphin and Mike de Kock have been overly dominant for the past years, and I find value in identifying races where the horses from those 2 yards run against unmatched rivals. Easier said than done, but as long as this trend of domination continues, I think it will pay to follow those 2 powerful stables very closely. For, this year in particular, Mike de Kock is bringing his strongest team yet, with the likes of River Jetez, Our Giant, Irish Flame, Bold Silvano etc, as the big guy really wants to win the big race(Dubai World Cup) which so closely elluded him last year.

Consistent with my approach of avoiding punts where there are too many question marks, I will abstain from giving a recommendation on this first meeting. Tomorrow will be more a learning exercise as to which horses are already on song, which ones are nicely coming along, and which ones are close to or past their sell-by date.