Dubai World Cup 2013 selections

The first major event of the racing calendar takes place in Meydan on Saturday on Dubai World Cup day. While it might not be the congregation of the best horses in the world, the prize money on offer and the plurality of origins of the contestants, make this an unmissable and a truly world contest. This is why also, in my opinion, it is a truer world championship than what the Breeders Cup pretends to be. Anyway, here are some thoughts on some of the races on the night.

Godolphin Mile
It's hard to see past unbeaten Soft Falling Rain, who diverted from the UAE Derby because of obvious stamina limitations. This son of National Assembly will be the first 3 year-old to run in the contest and will aim to be the first one to win it as well. He is a course and distance winner already, although the opposition will be the fiercest he'd faced to date. I believe he should in be in first 2 and is worthy of the extra risk of having him as a Win. His main opponents look to be Zazoum Surfer and Moonwalk in Paris.

Dubai Gold Cup
I like Tenenbaum as a Place here. He was the best finisher in the Nad Al Sheba Trophy behind a few of these, the trial to this race. That race was his seasonal debut; he missed the break and was not suited by the slow pace. He came out a fast closing fourth. He should be in much better disposition on Saturday and I see him as a major player. Al Zarooni always seems to prop one on the big occasions and I believe Tenenbaum will be his main chance of a breakthrough. The opposition will come from Star Empire, Imperial Monarch and Ahzeemah.

UAE Derby
Unbeaten Secret Number seems to hold all the aces here and my only worry is that he's only raced two times in his career. For all I know, his half-brother to high-class Dubai Destination and Librettist could be an upcoming superstar after easily winning his 2 races. Yet, his lack of seasoning for such a competitive race is definitely a concern. On ratings, he's already higher than the rest of the field and given his expected improvement from his last run, he must have a good chance. I will have him as each-way. Shuruq, Elleval and Lines of Battle should provide the main opposition.

Al Quoz Sprint
If Shea Shea does a repeat of his last performance, he should win this one. He should certainly be in the first 3. The dark horse of the race comes from Singapore in Mr Big. This is my idea of the perfect horse to punt since he's never been out of the placings in 19 starts. It might be worth taking the extra risk and have a Place punt on him if you're willing to accept his form from Singapore.

Golden Shaheen
If Tenenbaum is Al Zarooni's best chance of the night, then fellow Australian Mental is a close second one. He won impressively on his last run on the Tapeta and looks to be a class act. The American horses Trinniberg and Private Zone are the dark horses of the race; we know they are speedy but the question is how they will handle the Tapeta. Trinniberg is the better horse of the two but only has form on dirt. Private Zone has run 3 times on the Hollywood Park and Del Mar synthetic tracks before although he only has a second-place to show for. I will stick with Mental as a rather safe Place here.

Dubai Duty Free
Without question, Igugu has to be considered the biggest flop ever to land in Meydan, so far. I would love her to put the record straight finally in the Duty Free but it will be a tough sell; this field is deep and good and if she's still far from the top of her game, she will have no chance, even with her large allegiance of supporters. Connections seem to favour The Apache, who's been rather impressive in his 2 previous outings, winning the first one, and coming out a good second last time out. This is a race I will happily lay 2 horses that are among the leading fancies in the market; Ocean Park and Trade Storm.They are way over-priced. I think Australia/NZ have the best turf sprinters in the world. Except for a few stars like So You Think, Elvestroem and Makybe Diva, I question heavily the form of their other milers or middle-distance runners of late. I might be wrong but I feel that Ocean Park will feel the heat against the best opposition he's ever faced. Same for Trade Storm. I admire the way he's trounced his rivals in his 2 impressive wins at Meydan but I feel Saturday is an entirely different proposition. He might be close to the finish but I don't believe he will win. Laying these 2 horses is my selection for this race.

Dubai Scheema Classic
Gentildonna could just be the best Deep Impact out there and her form in beating Orfevre in the Japan Cup must make her a leading contender here. She seems to have acclimatized very well to Meydan and it would not be of any surprise if she beats this good field. Await the Dawn and St Nicholas Abbey should provide the main opposition. I will go with the Japanese superstar for the win and Await the Dawn looks good value at current odds for a Place.

Dubai World Cup
This is a wide open race and the winner looks to be coming from either Godolphin, the American contingent or Treasure Beach from the Mike de Kock stable. Hunter's Light and Kassiano should be the major players from boys in blue. I believe Animal Kingdom is the main US hope. The Kentucky Derby winner had seemed out of the place the start of the week in his new surroundings, but indications are that he's since been working good. Treasure Beach has looked promising on the surface, closing fastest in his seasonal reappearance in the Al Maktoum Challenge 3, the trial to this race. Given his room for improvement, he could be a major player and do a Lizard's Desire for the de Kock team. At current odds, I will go with an each-way couple here with Treasure Beach and Kassiano. If any of the two end up in the first 3, it will a handsome payoff. I actually think Kassiano could win this thing.

I am not keen on Royal Delta or Dullahan although I am sure many pundits have them at the forefront of their selections. I think Royal Delta can dominate the distaff division all she wants, but going against seasoned colts is an entirely different matter. I don't think Dullahan is good enough or even has a liking the surface, based on his last run a few weeks back. So, I will be laying both.


Win: Soft Falling Rain, Secret Number, Gentildonna
Place: Tenenbaum, Shea Shea, Mental, Mr Big, Await the Dawn
Each-way: Kassiano/Treasure Beach
Lay: Ocean Park, Trade Storm, Royal Delta, Dullahan

Dubai World Cup 2012

This week-end is all about the Dubai World Cup meeting. An absolutely sublime race-card where every race looks to be hotly contested. There are definitely no certainties, but here are my thoughts on the races.

Godolphin Mile - Godolphin have a strong hand in this race with African Story, Sandagiyr and Do It All. My preference goes to the first 2 as they have solid form on the Tapeta surface. African Story has been the subject of rave reviews from the team in blue and looks set to go at very short odds. I believe Sandagiyr as a Place looks good value here.

Dubai Gold Cup - This is a truly open race with at least 5 real contenders. Opinion Poll is a genuine performer and will be suited by the distance. Fox Hunt has been impressive and perfect in his 2 outings at Meydan this year. Zanzamar from the de Kock team isn't without a chance as well. The one to lay and who looks to have nothing to do in this race is Grand Vent, who was a well-beaten favourite last time out. Dettori has chosen Opinion Poll with whom he has a superb record, and they look provide the best value as a Place.

UAE Derby - A race with a lot of intrigue with newcomers Wrote and Daddy Long Legs from the Ballydoyle contingent and Helmet from Australia. The latter is a beautiful horse but I have strong reservations he will last the distance. He is a big lay for me and this is how I am going to tackle this race. The winner could come from anywhere really.

Al Quoz Sprint - this race is like the Group 1 sprints in Britain where each takes turn to win. Best to avoid this race completely.

Golden Shaheen - Everyone is hyping Rocket Man but I just don't think he's the same horse as previous years. I really like the horse but I have no reservations saying that he is a lay for me in this contest. The Factor is also overly hyped from the American base and his chances will vanish if he's involved in a speed duel from the start. He's unproven on the Tapeta, no matter how encouraging his works on the surface have been. The horse to beat in this race, in my opinion, is Sepoy, who brings solid form from Down Under. The only issue with him is how well he's adapted to the Tapeta. If he does, he will be at the finish. It might be worth having an each-way punt on Sepoy.

Dubai Duty Free - this is Mike de Kock's best chance for a winner with Musir and Mutahadee. Musir's last race was a disappointment and there is certainly the danger that he's lost form or is no longer the horse he was earlier in the Carnival. If he is on top form, he'll be in the whereabouts. Mutahadee has been one of the surprise packages of the Carnival and looks well-fancied by connections. The main danger for them will come from Ambitious Dragon, the star from Hong Kong. It would not be a surprise if he won this. One that has no chance in my books is Delegator, for which the distance looks to be too long. I have no idea why Godolphin placed him in this race. He is one of the biggest lays of this meeting. If Musir looks good on race day, a Place on him might be rewarding given his odds.

Sheema Classic - I like the Ballydoyle horses here in Treasure Beach and St Nicholas Abbey. The former is a tough horse who always gives the best of himself. He looks like a good Place punt. If St Nicholas Abbey reproduces his form of last year's Breeders Cup, he will be a serious contender. Cirrus des Aigles will also be a major player if he holds his form of last year. He was well beaten on his seasonal appearance on a synthetic surface in France, explaining his switch to this race from the DWC. Songcraft is a honest performer and it would not be surprising if he were to snatch a place at the finish.

Dubai World Cup - this does not seem to be the popular way to go, but I do not give much chance to Royal Delta or Game On Dude. The first one has won on synthetic and from reports, has looked impressive in the morning workouts at Meydan. Those are the only positives I can see. She's been trounced on her seasonal appearance a few weeks back and she looks over-hyped from her Breeders Classic (Ladies version) victory last year. She's a big lay. Game On Dude is unproven on the surface and doesn't look like he will be able to free-wheel in the lead. I see his efforts petering out as they enter the straight. For me, if So You Think is at his best and takes to the surface, he'll be the one to beat. I hope that this year Aidan O'Brien manages him as he deserves. Obviously, any of the Godolphin horses can spring an upset, particularly Monterosso who's bound to improve from his encouraging last outing. Although it is hard to assess their true form, the Japanese also can play a major role and it would not surprise me if they were to celebrate again at the end, just like they did with Victoire Pisa last year. The value for me when I look at the exchanges is Master of Hounds. He is proven on the Tapeta and his No 1 draw might not be as bad as others think as long as he breaks well and keeps up with the pace. I think he's a good but hopeful Place punt.

The Arc 2011 - History beckons for So You Think

The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is the greatest and most prestigious of all races, in my opinion. For others, it is the Epsom Derby, the Kentucky Derby, the Dubai World Cup, the Breeders Cup Classic, or the Melbourne Cup, but the Arc is my favourite, from a pure racing point of view. The best horse of the race almost always wins. And it's usually the best horse in the world at the classic mile and a half distance.

This year's Arc is one of the most open in recent years, with no clear front-runner in the betting market. My opinion is if So You Think runs to his true ability, it will be a one-horse show. Here's my lowdown on the main contestants.

Sarafina is deservingly among the favourites. She came out third in last year's race the winner after being checked entering the straight. With a clear run, she would have been closer than the 2 lengths she finished off the winner. This year, she has been drawn in the 13th stall, which is a very bad draw, but since she comes from off the pace, that disadvantage will be negligible. She's in top form according to her trainer and I see her being among the strong finishers although seeing her winning it looks to be a stretch.

Workforce is the defending champion and he certainly would have a good chance of repeating if he's on his best form. One negative is that his jockey Ryan Moore has just returned to the saddle yesterday Friday after an injury layoff and will not be at 100% of his powers. The King Best colt is not to be dismissed but he would need some luck in running to beat the opposition this year.

Snow Fairy can mix it up with the colts no problem. I consider her as one of the 3 best middle-distance distaffers in the world. Her light race schedule this year will see her being in top form on Sunday. On her last race, she gave So You Think a scare and finished a lot closer to him than I thought she would. She will be ridden by Dettori which is a plus. She looks to be a very good Place prospect.

Treasure Beach is one of the best 3 year-olds at the distance and would have won 2 Derbies were it not for the exploits of Pour Moi. The Galileo colt also won a Grade 1 in the U.S and looks an uncomplicated sort who should find no problem adapting to the Longchamp track. He must have an outside chance and if race conditions are favourable to him, he could spring an upset.

So You Think has won 4 out of 5 in his European outings and his only loss has been well documented as a self-confessed trainer error. It is striking that the same trainer is insisting that SYT is a 10-furlong horse. How can a horse that very nearly won the Melbourne Cup be treated as a 10-furlong specialist? If that's the way the horse has been trained since joining the Ballydoyle stable, most possibly due for breeding purposes, then he will not have a chance against the other seasoned stayers. Speed being the attraction nowadays, O'Brien might have gotten directives from the Coolmore brass to make SYT as the best 10f horse around. But his pedigree screams 12f, just like his sire High Chapparal. The only other question mark is the assignment of Heffernan as jockey. The Irishman is far from proven on the French track and when chips are as big as this. My take on SYT is clear; if he's not been messed about by his genius-like, yet flawed trainer, and he's not subject to a pilot error, he's going to win because he's a notch above every single horse in the race.

Of the rest of the field, Galikova is going to be great next year, but has not yet attained the level required to win this year's edition. Saint Nicholas Abbey has been mostly hype and is just not good enough. The Japanese horses are the big question mark and it would not be entirely surprising if one of them came out the winner.

My trifecta selection is So You Think, Snow Fairy, Sarafina. This is the grandest stage of all for the Australasian superstar to cement his status as one of the all-time greats.