A look at Breeders Cup 2012

Another good past week-end where only Bayern failed to deliver while other selections were spot on.

This coming Friday and Saturday is all about the Breeders Cup at Santa Anita. Whether it is still the world thoroughbred championship remains to be seen, but there is no doubt that the creme of US racing is there. This year, the 2-year olds will be racing without Lasix, so don't be surprised if the form is reversed in the juvenile races because of the absence of this diuretic. Over the years, I found it beneficial to just stick with a few races where I believe there are certainties, and this year is no different. Right or wrong, I think there are the following 4 certainties to go by in the next 2 days.

The first one looks to be a bold one that could bite but I'm sticking with it; Royal Delta will not win the Ladies Classic. This year's race is possibly the most competitive championship filly race in the US for a long time. Seven out of the eight runners are Group 1 winners. Two champions, Awesome Feather and My Miss Aurelia, are undefeated. The favourite Royal Delta has the highest rating of field, is the defending champion, and comes to Santa Anita from a near-ten length romp of a Group 1 field in her last outing. According to connections, she's in top form. But I believe she won't win, here's why.

Awesome Feather is undefeated in 10 races. She's injury-prone, but her last comeback race showed her talent hasn't been diminished by the long layoffs when she destroyed the field by over 11 lengths. I like the way she finishes her races and the mile and a furlong distance will be right up her alley. I think she'll be in the first 3, and will go each-way on her.

Then there's Questing and My Miss Aurelia who last battled in the Group 1 Cotillion Stakes, with the latter prevailing by a nose at the finish. Prior to the race, Questing was considered by many as the best 3-year old filly in training. Both are very talented and look set to give a race to their elders on Friday.

Royal Delta is way too short at the exchanges. I'll lay her all day. She is very good on her day, but she's been beaten three times this year already. She will have to deal with the 3 no-nonsense fillies above. Awesome Feather looks to be a better pick.

The Mile Turf. This promises to be a great race among the 3 main contenders. Wise Dan, the US champion, Excelebration, the best miler in the world with the retirement of Frankel, and Moonlight Cloud, a high-class filly who's highly rated by her conditioner Freddy Head, who also trained the mighty Miesque and incomparable Goldikova. Wise Dan has the advantage of being at home; he's dominated the North American mile scene and the Santa Anita hard turf and bends will suit him to perfection.If he'd race in Europe, he would not be as competitive. There isn't much more to say on Excelebration that hasn't been written. On his best form, he will annihilate this field. The only negative is that he's running his second Group 1 race in just 2 weeks. His fitness won't be at its mighty peak. Moonlight Cloud has solid grounds to be in the placings and is possibly around two lengths behind Excelebration on their best form.

I believe Wise Dan will run his race and should thus be in the first 3. If Excelebration has recuperated enough from his last race, he'll be tough to beat. Moonlight Cloud won't be far back if she takes to the Santa Anita track. Thus the only certain thing is that Wise Dan is destined for at least a place and that's the selection.

Filly and Mare Turf. If there is a trainer from the European team who knows US racing and form, it's John Gosden. He has targeted this race for The Fugue for a long time and the Dansili filly looks destined to play a major role in this year's race. She will love the fast ground and she will be well rested from her last race where she was a good second to high-class Shareta in the Yorkshire Oaks. She has a first-class chance to win this, and should she fail, I cannot see her out of the first 3. Her main opponents look to be from the European raiding party in Ridasiyna and Nahrain, as well as the American Lady of Shamrock. I will oppose the first one because she very much prefers soft ground; Nahrain's form is inconsistent at best, and Lady of Shamrock still has a few pounds to find to The Fugue. Each-way on The Fugue is the recommendation.

Will not win: Royal Delta
Each-way: Awesome Feather, The Fugue
Place: Wise Dan

Black-type performers

Fantastic week-end of sports that was. Liverpool were lucky to draw with Sunderland while Stoke's +1 Handicap against Man City proved a nice winner. In racing, were in not for the exploits of outsider Encke, Camelot and Michelangelo would have provided with a very good return. As it is, Camelot did not win but a Placed Michelangelo was good enough to bring the bacon home.

It was an exquisite week-end of racing really. Godolphin again played the spoils to the ambitions of Coolmore by denying Camelot of the Triple Crown. The son of Montjeu stayed on but just lacked the finishing kick to reach his conqueror at the finish. It was another big-race win for jockey Barzalona who seems to have a knack of landing big-money races and Classics. It will be interesting if Camelot is given the green light for the Arc.

Speaking of the prestigious race, Orfevre, the Japanese superstar labored to win the Prix Foy, one of the major prep races. While many were left disappointed with his workmanlike win, he did beat a high-class colt in Meandre. It was also his first race after a long layoff. I think he's a genuine Arc contender; whether he wins it or not will depend on a load of factors. But he certainly looks the most talented Japanese representative after Deep Impact.

Shareta won the Prix Vermeille impressively by dispatching a high-class field and on that form, must be given a leading chance for the October show-piece. She came out second last year to Danedream and she seems to be hitting top form at the right moment again. She is definitely the best representative from the Aga Khan contingent.

Moonlight Cloud beat Farrh in the Prix Moulin. Freddy Head's filly is just an a tough sort that runs her heart out every time. She might be the only lateral link between Frankel and Black Caviar! She came a head off second to the Australian superstar at Royal Ascot, but beat Farrh in turn who's been trounced many lengths a couple of times by Frankel. I cannot wait for the next run from the French filly because she's among the best from 6 furlongs to a mile.

The Woodbine Mile on Canadian soil saw Wise Dan from the US stroll to a comfortable win over some good European sorts such as Cityscape. Obviously, it is widely agreed that Europeans are better than the US-trained ones on turf but this son of Wiseman Ferry could prove to be the exception come the Breeders Cup Mile in November. Wise Dan is by far the best miler from the US and unless Excelebration or Moonlight Cloud make the trip to Santa Anita, the race could be a shoe-in for the US champion.

This week is all about the 1st round of the Champions League and there are quite a few interesting match-ups on the go. I'll get to some previews tomorrow.