This year's Arc has no proven superstar and it looks to be a wide open race with quite a few that can add their name to Flat immortality in landing the greatest race in the world. Iwill focus on those Ithink will be the 6 main protagonists in Bluestocking, Look de Vega, Shin Emperor, Delius, Sosie and Aventure. That's not to say that fancied sorts such as Los Angeles, Al Riffa and Mqse de Sevigne are not without a chance but I believe the names in the first group have more upside to them and prime to deliver on Sunday.
Bluestocking is a top-class mare winner of the Prix Vermeille who's blossomed this year. She ticks a lot of boxes going into the race. Being by Camelot, she's bred for this distance and she goes well on soft ground. She has an ideal post of 3 and also gets a 3-pound allowance. If Rossa Ryan has her handy in a stalking position, she should be thereabouts at the finish.
Look de Vega disappointed many on his return in the Prix Niel where he lost his unbeaten record. The impressive winner of the French Derby looked like he was stretched at the extended distance and on this performance would not figure in this standout list. The common view is that he might have needed that race after a lengthy rest and if that is a legitimate excuse, he should be bang ready on Sunday. He is the best 10 furlong horse of the race and if he can show his class at 12 furlongs, he must be the horse to beat.
Japan's hopes this year rests on Shin Emperor and unlike his illustrious predecessors such as Deep Impact and Orfevre, does not bring a top-level resume to Longchamp. In fact, hear this, he's only a Group 3 winner in Japan! However, his performance in the Irish Champion Stakes raised serious attention as he was a running-on third while only 70% ready according to his trainer. That run reminded me a lot of Sotsass who was 4th in the Irish Champion Stakes before landing the Arc in his next race. The resemblance is not coincidental as he's actually a full brother to Sotsass! Discard Japanese stars at your peril and this guy could be the one that ends Japanese tears in the Arc and finally lands them their Holy Grail!
Delius is the only Frankel in the lineup and I like his profile going into the race. He was beaten by Sosie in his last 2 races but was not disgraced when second in the Niel. He looks to be a horse on the upside and if things go his way, he could outlast them all. His number 7 draw should have him well placed.
Sosie brings the best form going in the race and is therefore the deserved favourite. If he can reproduce his form of the past 2 months, he will be hard to beat. There are really no negatives to find on this son of Sea the Stars and the question is whether he can sustain the devastating form of his last 2 runs.
Aventure is another Sea the Stars that will benefit from a good weight allowance being a 3-year old filly. She was a good second in the Vermeille and must be given an honest chance given her good draw at number 4. She will have no problem with the soft conditions.
Brace yourselves, a Japanese thoroughbred will win the Arc one day and tomorrow could be THE day! The way Shin Emperor performed in the Irish Champion Stakes will give a nation the belief that this could be their year. They say he has improved since. The Emperor has history in his grasp!
Win: Shin Emperor
Each-way: Aventure, Delius
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