Dubai World Cup 2014

This week-end, focusing on the Dubai World Cup meeting, one of highlights of the racing calendar for me. The Flat season starts here.

Godolphin Mile. This looks to be a match-up between the 2 South African-trained horses Variety Club and Soft Falling Rain, and the Godolphin representative Shuruq. Variety Club, the dual South African champion was so impressive on his first outing on the Tapeta surface in Dubai that he was made one of the favourites for the World Cup on many books. Those hopes were somewhat tempered when he was surprisingly beaten by Shuruq on his last start, suggesting that he might not last the 10-furlong distance of the World Cup. The mile is up his alley. He's drawn poorly in stall 15. Shuruq flies on the Tapeta and has drawn ok in 10th. There is every reason to believe that she will reproduce the form that saw her overcome Variety Club a few weeks ago. She's a main contender. Soft Falling Rain won this race last year but there is a question mark on his fitness this year. He only has one race under his belt and could only come up 9th on his seasonal return. He will have to have improved by miles to win this, in my opinion. I see Shuruq running her race and in all eventuality, should be in the first three. I see her as a good Place prospect.

1. Shuruq 2. Variety Club 3. Soft Falling Rain

Dubai Gold Cup. After his demolition of many in the field in the trial for this race, Cavalryman will be a hot favourite to repeat in the race he won last year. Connections seem to be bullish and although he's now 6, he seems to be as green as ever. Star Empire from the de Kock stable always runs his honest race and should be in the thereabouts again. Songcraft is another honest horse but I have a feeling that the two-mile distance might be of a stretch to him.

1. Cavalryman 2. Star Empire 3. Songcraft

UAE Derby. Long John will probably be the shortest favourite of the meeting after his 2000 Guineas demonstration. He's mot probably the class of the race. One thing to note about the Appleby stable though is the poor showing of many of their runners on their second outing. It could very well be that Long John also succumbs to these poor statistics. I really like the looks of Ballydoyle's Giovanni Boldini in this race. He's definitely high-class after his brave second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last year. His trainer O'Brien has a fantastic record in this race and knows how to ready a 3-year old for the occasion. Minor mentions go to Emirates Flyer and Safety Check from Godolphin.

1. Giovanni Boldini 2. Long John. 3. Emirates Flyer

Al Quoz Sprint. Mike de kock usually gets a win under his belt on the big night and Shea Shea looks to be the one for him. The star sprinter from South Africa was impressive looking by winning on his seasonal appearance and looks as good as ever. He will drawn to his preferred stands rail and should be hard to beat. Sole Power should be in the thereabouts and Medicean Man seems best of the rest after winning his last 2 starts.

1. Shea Shea 2. Sole Power 3. Medicean Man

Golden Shaheen. The dark horse of this race is Sterling City, who has got some impressive form from Hong Kong. If he takes to the Tapeta, he will be a leading contender. Reynaldothewizard won this race last year and seems to have been primed for this race. He should be in the thereabouts at the finish. A minor mention goes to Russian Soul who seems to win on every alternate outing. If the stats prove correct again, he should be a major consideration for the win. This is a fascinating contest and it would not be surprising if the 3 above-mentioned contest the finish in any order.

1. Russian Soul 2. Sterling City 3. Reynaldothewizard

Dubai Duty Free. A wide-open and intriguing contest, of which I will pick 3. The obvious one is The Fugue which is easily the best horse in the race. The mare is just one of the best middle-distance performers in the business and on any given day should land this race no problem. The distance is somewhat on the short side but the big question mark is whether the downpour of the last few days will have softened the turf too much for her liking. If the ground runs fast as they expect it to be, then she has an outstanding chance of winning this. Dank is a  filly on the rise, having won the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf last year. The distance will suit her to perfection and she wants fast dry underfoot as well. Last but not least is Vercingetorix, who's unbeaten in 6 races. He seems to be doing his minimum to win his races and it's possible that we haven't seen the best of him yet. It's really a roll of the dice between the three.

1. Dank 2. Vercingetorix 3. The Fugue

Schema Classic. This promises to be a real classic with at least 4 names standing out. Magician was awesome in winning the Breeders Cup Turf last November and is for many, the horse to follow in British Flat racing this year. There is every indication that he is the best horse from the older brigade of Ballydoyle this year. Gentildonna came second in last year's race and has been one of the top fillies in the world at the distance. She was soundly beaten on her last start and although there are whisperings that she has lost a step compared to last year, she cannot be counted out yet. Denim and Ruby is a top filly from Japan as well, and she was nosed out of the Japan Cup by the same Gentildonna. She could be the one picking up the mantle from the great mare. Finally, Cirrus des Aigles always commands respect although he's now 8 and was beaten in 4th on his seasonal return 3 weeks ago. If all the vibes about Magician from connections are correct, this could be the start of a magical season for him.

1. Magician 2. Denim and Ruby 3. Gentildonna

Dubai World Cup. Another wide-open contest as there is no horse that stands out on talent or form. Almost every horse in the field has a chance to win. If I have to pick 3, then I will go for African Story, Sanshaawes and Akeed Mofeed. African Story was disappointing in the trial to this race by finishing a distant 8th. He lost all his chances by banging his head in the starting stalls. So his last race must be thrown out. Vibes from connections are positive, so if he runs his race on a surface that he clearly relishes, he should be at the finish. Sanshaawes impressed me by coming out second to Price Bishop in the same above-mentioned trial race. I did not expect him to run such a big race given he had only a week rest. He seems to love the Tapeta and if conditions of the race favour him, he could be the one to give Mike de Kock his first World Cup trophy. Finally, I pick Akeed Mofeed because he seems to fit the profile of winners of this race; tough, progressive and could very well adapt to the synthetic track, being by Dubawi. If all elements align properly for him during the race, he could spring a major surprise. That said, the rest of the field are no slouch and luck and race conditions will play a major factor in the outcome.

1. African Story 2. Sanshaawes 3. Akeed Mofeed

Dubai World Cup 2012

This week-end is all about the Dubai World Cup meeting. An absolutely sublime race-card where every race looks to be hotly contested. There are definitely no certainties, but here are my thoughts on the races.

Godolphin Mile - Godolphin have a strong hand in this race with African Story, Sandagiyr and Do It All. My preference goes to the first 2 as they have solid form on the Tapeta surface. African Story has been the subject of rave reviews from the team in blue and looks set to go at very short odds. I believe Sandagiyr as a Place looks good value here.

Dubai Gold Cup - This is a truly open race with at least 5 real contenders. Opinion Poll is a genuine performer and will be suited by the distance. Fox Hunt has been impressive and perfect in his 2 outings at Meydan this year. Zanzamar from the de Kock team isn't without a chance as well. The one to lay and who looks to have nothing to do in this race is Grand Vent, who was a well-beaten favourite last time out. Dettori has chosen Opinion Poll with whom he has a superb record, and they look provide the best value as a Place.

UAE Derby - A race with a lot of intrigue with newcomers Wrote and Daddy Long Legs from the Ballydoyle contingent and Helmet from Australia. The latter is a beautiful horse but I have strong reservations he will last the distance. He is a big lay for me and this is how I am going to tackle this race. The winner could come from anywhere really.

Al Quoz Sprint - this race is like the Group 1 sprints in Britain where each takes turn to win. Best to avoid this race completely.

Golden Shaheen - Everyone is hyping Rocket Man but I just don't think he's the same horse as previous years. I really like the horse but I have no reservations saying that he is a lay for me in this contest. The Factor is also overly hyped from the American base and his chances will vanish if he's involved in a speed duel from the start. He's unproven on the Tapeta, no matter how encouraging his works on the surface have been. The horse to beat in this race, in my opinion, is Sepoy, who brings solid form from Down Under. The only issue with him is how well he's adapted to the Tapeta. If he does, he will be at the finish. It might be worth having an each-way punt on Sepoy.

Dubai Duty Free - this is Mike de Kock's best chance for a winner with Musir and Mutahadee. Musir's last race was a disappointment and there is certainly the danger that he's lost form or is no longer the horse he was earlier in the Carnival. If he is on top form, he'll be in the whereabouts. Mutahadee has been one of the surprise packages of the Carnival and looks well-fancied by connections. The main danger for them will come from Ambitious Dragon, the star from Hong Kong. It would not be a surprise if he won this. One that has no chance in my books is Delegator, for which the distance looks to be too long. I have no idea why Godolphin placed him in this race. He is one of the biggest lays of this meeting. If Musir looks good on race day, a Place on him might be rewarding given his odds.

Sheema Classic - I like the Ballydoyle horses here in Treasure Beach and St Nicholas Abbey. The former is a tough horse who always gives the best of himself. He looks like a good Place punt. If St Nicholas Abbey reproduces his form of last year's Breeders Cup, he will be a serious contender. Cirrus des Aigles will also be a major player if he holds his form of last year. He was well beaten on his seasonal appearance on a synthetic surface in France, explaining his switch to this race from the DWC. Songcraft is a honest performer and it would not be surprising if he were to snatch a place at the finish.

Dubai World Cup - this does not seem to be the popular way to go, but I do not give much chance to Royal Delta or Game On Dude. The first one has won on synthetic and from reports, has looked impressive in the morning workouts at Meydan. Those are the only positives I can see. She's been trounced on her seasonal appearance a few weeks back and she looks over-hyped from her Breeders Classic (Ladies version) victory last year. She's a big lay. Game On Dude is unproven on the surface and doesn't look like he will be able to free-wheel in the lead. I see his efforts petering out as they enter the straight. For me, if So You Think is at his best and takes to the surface, he'll be the one to beat. I hope that this year Aidan O'Brien manages him as he deserves. Obviously, any of the Godolphin horses can spring an upset, particularly Monterosso who's bound to improve from his encouraging last outing. Although it is hard to assess their true form, the Japanese also can play a major role and it would not surprise me if they were to celebrate again at the end, just like they did with Victoire Pisa last year. The value for me when I look at the exchanges is Master of Hounds. He is proven on the Tapeta and his No 1 draw might not be as bad as others think as long as he breaks well and keeps up with the pace. I think he's a good but hopeful Place punt.

Week-end preview

Rerouted came out a good Place in third behind Delegator, but the good selection was offset with Rio de la Plata finishing a non-threatening 7th in the mile race. Two bad runs out of two for Rio de la Plata at Meydan, gives enough credence to the fact that the son of Rahy does not like the track, as was the fear in the previous post.

This week-end will be quieter than usual with the FA Cup matches taking over from the EPL. The competition is a breeding ground for upsets, more so because even the big guns don't always field in their best teams. The certainty level of any match is almost nil, which makes it better to skip analyzing the fixture list altogether from a punting point of view.

Looking at La Liga, and Real Madrid welcome Santander. In normal circumstances, this is a straight win for the hosts. Given their comfortable cushion at the top, and with a Champions League game coming up, will Mourinho field his best team? Possibly not! But I expect him to field a team good enough to win the 3 points. Real is recommended as a Win, but throw this away if the starting line-up on Saturday is close to being the reserve team itself!

La Ligue 1 sees a match of leaders between Montpellier and PSG. The latter will certainly look at the home field advantage to try to extend their 1-point lead. Ancelotti has had his men in pretty fine shape and form since his arrival and I expect him to come out with the right tactical nous to overcome the visitors. I recommend PSG as a draw-no-bet.

In racing, Animal Kingdom, winner of last year's Kentucky Derby makes his seasonal re-appearance at Gulfstream Park on turf. The son of Leroidesanimaux will use this outing as a springboard to the Dubai World Cup next month. His bullet works have looked promising and although he shouldn't be in peak condition, he should have too much class for the field. I expect him to Win.


Win: Real Madrid, Animal Kingdom
Draw-no-bet: PSG

The Joker back in business

Not a great week-end with only 4 punts winning out of 7, with 1 void and 2 losses. The big guns of Barcelona, Real, and Manchester teams won, but Juventus could only draw for a void, while Fiorentina and Valencia got shocking losses at home.

It's been a quiet last few days on the racing and football front. The news that So You Think is being considered for a Dubai World Cup bid is interesting. He'll be a deserving big favourite if he starts the race. I just cannot see a horse at this time that will have the class to challenge him. But this is more than 2 months away, so I'll get to that in due time.

Havre de Grace won the coveted Horse of the Year Eclipse award yesterday night. Truth be told, last year's racing form in the US was sketchy at best. There was no superstar or horse to be mentioned in the same breath as Zenyatta or Curlin. Havre de Grace is a deserving winner but she's no Zenyatta.

The Australian Open started this week and I cannot see past Djokovic here. He's just a step above the rest and his fans will be feel assured that he has kept last year's form after his first game yesterday. Chances are he will add another Major in a fortnight, and what looks certain is that he will at least reach the final. I cannot see Andy Murray blocking his way to get there. So that's the recommendation.

To Reach Final: Djokovic

Meydan Week 2

It's the second week of the Carnival at Meydan and as expected the Thursday card looks very competitive. No question that the attraction of the night is the Group 3 Maktoum Challenge race which features possible starters for the Dubai World Cup; i.e., much of it will depend on how they fare in this race first.

My pick in this race is Musir; it's simple, if he's top fit and near his best, he will win the race.He's coming off a 130-day break, so he's bound to be ring-rusty, but he's done very well coming back from a layoff before. There are 3 horses that could potentially outsmart Mike de Kock's colt; Master of Hounds, the stable's second-string which is bound to have a new lease of life under the South African trainer, having joined from the Ballydoyle camp. I've written many times how horse careers get transformed when they go through that transition and Master of Hounds looks up to great things under the care of de Kock. I have a feeling the trainer will use this race to gauge MOH's actual abilities, with a potential tilt at the DWC race itself should he show enough class.

Xin Xu Lin is being touted by Godolphin this year and it will not surprise me if he makes the frame.This is a high-class South American champion that was rushed to race in Meydan last year, and seems in much better condition to race this year. Al Zarooni looks bullish on his prospects and that usually means that the horse is expected to deliver. He can be a top contender if the others are not fully wound-up.

Finally, Mendip has serious form on the Meydan race-track. I have reservations about him since he was well beaten by Musir before and I find it hard to see him reversing the roles. His near-300 day layoff in such a competitive race looks to put him at a disadvantage as well. His No 1 stall should have him well placed in the race as long as he does not get caught on the rails.

My recommendation is a Place on Musir. Coming from stall No 4 should put him in good stalking position. If his form shines through, he should be right at the finish.

For anyone wanting a match-bet punt, I would go for Musir over Mendip. I also believe either Xin Xu Lin or Master of Hounds (or both) will be in the first 3, so a couple Place on both could be rewarding as well.


Place: Musir

The Arc 2011 - History beckons for So You Think

The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is the greatest and most prestigious of all races, in my opinion. For others, it is the Epsom Derby, the Kentucky Derby, the Dubai World Cup, the Breeders Cup Classic, or the Melbourne Cup, but the Arc is my favourite, from a pure racing point of view. The best horse of the race almost always wins. And it's usually the best horse in the world at the classic mile and a half distance.

This year's Arc is one of the most open in recent years, with no clear front-runner in the betting market. My opinion is if So You Think runs to his true ability, it will be a one-horse show. Here's my lowdown on the main contestants.

Sarafina is deservingly among the favourites. She came out third in last year's race the winner after being checked entering the straight. With a clear run, she would have been closer than the 2 lengths she finished off the winner. This year, she has been drawn in the 13th stall, which is a very bad draw, but since she comes from off the pace, that disadvantage will be negligible. She's in top form according to her trainer and I see her being among the strong finishers although seeing her winning it looks to be a stretch.

Workforce is the defending champion and he certainly would have a good chance of repeating if he's on his best form. One negative is that his jockey Ryan Moore has just returned to the saddle yesterday Friday after an injury layoff and will not be at 100% of his powers. The King Best colt is not to be dismissed but he would need some luck in running to beat the opposition this year.

Snow Fairy can mix it up with the colts no problem. I consider her as one of the 3 best middle-distance distaffers in the world. Her light race schedule this year will see her being in top form on Sunday. On her last race, she gave So You Think a scare and finished a lot closer to him than I thought she would. She will be ridden by Dettori which is a plus. She looks to be a very good Place prospect.

Treasure Beach is one of the best 3 year-olds at the distance and would have won 2 Derbies were it not for the exploits of Pour Moi. The Galileo colt also won a Grade 1 in the U.S and looks an uncomplicated sort who should find no problem adapting to the Longchamp track. He must have an outside chance and if race conditions are favourable to him, he could spring an upset.

So You Think has won 4 out of 5 in his European outings and his only loss has been well documented as a self-confessed trainer error. It is striking that the same trainer is insisting that SYT is a 10-furlong horse. How can a horse that very nearly won the Melbourne Cup be treated as a 10-furlong specialist? If that's the way the horse has been trained since joining the Ballydoyle stable, most possibly due for breeding purposes, then he will not have a chance against the other seasoned stayers. Speed being the attraction nowadays, O'Brien might have gotten directives from the Coolmore brass to make SYT as the best 10f horse around. But his pedigree screams 12f, just like his sire High Chapparal. The only other question mark is the assignment of Heffernan as jockey. The Irishman is far from proven on the French track and when chips are as big as this. My take on SYT is clear; if he's not been messed about by his genius-like, yet flawed trainer, and he's not subject to a pilot error, he's going to win because he's a notch above every single horse in the race.

Of the rest of the field, Galikova is going to be great next year, but has not yet attained the level required to win this year's edition. Saint Nicholas Abbey has been mostly hype and is just not good enough. The Japanese horses are the big question mark and it would not be entirely surprising if one of them came out the winner.

My trifecta selection is So You Think, Snow Fairy, Sarafina. This is the grandest stage of all for the Australasian superstar to cement his status as one of the all-time greats.

A beautiful day of sports

Not a great week-end in terms of punting with only Diamondhead winning and First Bid, Pembrey and Double Pass all disappointing and finishing among the pack. In fact, while Godolphin were celebrating a narrow Irish Oaks win with Blue Bunting, all their newcomers in England failed to fire. This stable is becoming very unpredictable to follow.

But despite the disappointments on the racing track, Sunday gave rise to a great day of celebrations in sports. It started with Darren Clarke winning a Major title at last. While the names of Irishmen favoured to win the Claret Jug were Rory McIlroy and Grame McDowell, it was 42-year old Clarke that broke his Major duck at last. Gone are the slogans "among the best not to win a Major", at least not to him. I had serious doubts whether he could hold on to his slender lead going into the week-end but he kept composure and the rest is now history. A crowd favourite that deserved every bit of winning a Major. 3 Northern Irishmen are currently holding Golf's 3 Major titles. Amazing. Who knows? Maybe this win has given hope to Colin Montgomery in this quest for that elusive Major victory...

The day continued with the Women World Cup final where Japan were taking on heavily-favoured USA. I didn't take much notice of Japan until they started beating Mexico, then England. They continued on their stunning winning ways by ousting holders and hosts Germany, and Sweden. All teams with pedigree. And for the final, they were taking on world beaters USA whom they'd never beaten in 25 past occasions! As destiny would have it, they won the final on penalty kicks, after 2 stunning comebacks in regulation and extra time.What an impressive never-say-die spirit, not just in the final but throughout the tournament. A few months after Victoire Pisa's win in the Dubai World Cup, it's another momentous win for Japan on the world stage. They won with class and are the world's best again. Extremely happy for a nation that is still trying to rebuild from the effects of the tsunami. Awesome Japan!

A beautiful day of sports yesterday was indeed.

Weekend preview

Field of Miracles won her race on Thursday at Kempton for a nice winning recommendation. The Gosden stable is on fire currently as it again won with Imperial Pippin at Newbury today, and is to be followed. Lots to look forward to this week-end in both football and racing.

The matches in the Premier League look quite competitive, and I can't really find any sure-fire bets. Even Chelsea is exposed when visiting West Brom, who've become a resurgent team under Roy Hodgson. There seems to be better value looking at the semi-final FA Cup match between the 2 Manchester teams. Man City will be massively disadvantaged with the loss of Carlos Tevez to injury. Their best player could have caused problems in the Utd defence. On the other hand, Man Utd are on a roll right now, and it's always been hard to stop them once they have that kind of momentum. The Red Devils have been overwhelming City in the last few years in the Premier League although that one could argue that City have ridden some hard luck in a few of those games. I don't put much emphasis on history but it's hard to go against Utd with the vein of form they are in. They should win or draw this match even without Wayne Rooney. I recommend them as draw-no-bet.

This was supposed to be THE Clasico game in La Liga which everyone had been looking forward to since the 5-0 drubbing of Madrid at the Nou Camp some months back. It turns out Saturday's Clasico has lost some of the luster because not only are Barcelona 8 points ahead, but there are 3 more Clasicos of higher importance to be played in the few weeks; the Copa del Rey final and the semi-final matches of the Champions League! So, tomorrow's league match has paled in significance given that even a Madrid win would probably still not have an impact on the championship race. The theory brewing in both of the managers' minds is how can they win tomorrow's game without giving much away in terms of tactics and strategy for the remaining 3 games. As a result, both teams are probably not going to be playing desperation football tomorrow. Madrid will certainly have more urgency since they haven't beaten their opponents in 6 seasons, and will feel tomorrow might be the time to do so. Losing however, will only aggravate the mental barrier they've trying to overcome against their arch-rivals. For this reason, Mourinho will try not to lose this game. If someone really needs to have a punt on this one, I would recommend Real Madrid as a draw-no-bet.

In Italy, I think Milan is a good draw-no-bet at home against Sampdoria. In the Bundesliga, I like Wolfsburg's and Borussia Dortmund's chances at home to St Pauli and Freiburg respectively, so they are good draw-no-bets.

In racing, it's the return of much-vaunted Frankel, the potential superstar for this Flat season. There was disappointment a couple of weeks ago when another much-talked-about star St Nicholas Abbey petered out on his seasonal debut at the Curragh. Hopefully for racing, Frankel won't disappoint. It's tough to gauge his chances on Saturday; the vibes from the Henry Cecil camp is that he's wintered well and in good form. However, the yard is hardly in form itself and has seen quite a few well-fancied representatives disappoint lately; Twice Over in the DWC, Bullet Train, Midsummer Fun, All Time among others, have been well-fancied but finished far from the podium. The main opposition I believe will come from Strong Suit from the Hannon yard that is starting to fire on all cylinders. He will like the fast ground and the fast pace that seems to be a given with the inclusion of Picture Editor as pacemaker. I like Strong Suit as a Place punt.

Place: Strong Suit
Draw-no-bet: Man Utd, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Wolfsburg, AC Milan

Victory for Japan

That was a superb World Cup meeting. No hard-luck stories, the best on the day won. Japan won the Big One with Victoire Pisa, and there is so much we can talk about regarding this as we go down memory lane. El Condor Pasa gave a glimpse of their rise in the thoroughbred world by nearly winning the Arc. Heart's Cry confirmed their deep talent by winning the Schema Classic. Deep Impact almost put them on top of the world in an ill-fated Arc attempt. Delta Blues and Pop Rock gave them the big breakthrough in the Melbourne Cup. And now Victoire Pisa and Transcend won them the richest race of them all. Fantastic! and I hope there is more to come from the land of the Rising Sun.

Looking at my recommendations, all bar one of them (Gio Ponti/Musir) were correct, and the Place couplings were good as at least one of the horses made the frame (Rocket Man, River Jetez, Mahbooba) at favourable odds. This is how my 10 predictions came through;

1. Bad one to start with. Gio Ponti and Musir were close but ended up 5th and 7th. I thought for a moment that Gio Ponti would win it as he entered the straight menacingly on the outside, but his turn of foot couldn't make the difference as the leaders had enough in the tank with the slow pace. Both were not outclassed but were not good enough on the night.

2. Good lay prediction on Cape Blanco, but just. Cape Blanco ran a brilliant race to come out 4th. He surprised me and almost made me eat my words! I have renewed respect for him.

3. It was always going to be a long shot with Irish Flame as I mentioned.

4. The Duty Free did not go to one of the mares but River Jetez ran as expected but fell to another brilliant horse in Presvis. Raihana was the unlucky story of the race as she couldn't find a clear run in the straight. Had she done so, I think she would have finished 3rd.

5. No contest for Rocket Man there.

6. Mahbooba was in the first 3 as mentioned. Reem was out of it, but overall, great coupling for a Place.

7. The lay on Mendip was spot-on as it was always going to be difficult for him on grass. This horse should rather be tried on dirt in America or stay on the synthetic. I don't know why Godolphin didn't enter him in the DWC itself.

8. De Kock had a good night with a few Place earnings, but failed to win a race. So a "huge" night was overstating it.

9. Godolphin won the races that were mentioned they were most apt to win; the Mile, the UAE Derby and the Scheema Classic. All the stars came aligned on the night on the night for them to win all three. This Khawlah is a filly to follow in England. Same bloodlines as Sea the Stars, so this explains a lot about her abilities.

10. I hope you enjoyed the meeting, I thought it was the best of the past few years!

Before I end this topic, I'm reading the jockey comments concerning the DWC race and a few of them are plainly complaining about the lack of pace in the race doing their mount no favours. From Soumillon (Musir), to Shea (Golden Sword) to Dominguez (Gio Ponti), they are "wishing" the pace could have been quicker. I'm no jockey, but for any punter, it's unnerving to hear such things; if they thought the pace was unsuitable during the race, wouldn't it have made sense to do something about it rather than sit still? Or were they tactically bound to stay put? Being free on the outside, Shea and Dominguez had every chance to make a move but didn't. Demuro on Victoire Pisa made his move to control the race despite an early setback, and the result is a victory that is down to the jockey's tactical prowess as well as alertness.

Finally, I'm amusingly reading about Rooney's yellow card during the Wales v/s England, which rules him out of the next Euro qualifier game. I'm ok with Capello usually reminding offenders before the match whenever they are one yellow card away from suspension. Does him failing to do so, excuse the fact that Rooney did not know about this significant detail entering the game? These footballers are supposed to be "professional"... I think Rooney is an awesome player, but what kind of things going on in a footballer's mind that explains missing something as important as this?

Have a good week!

DWC: the case for Gio Ponti

Frustration at Kempton where Tropical Beat failed to get a clear run in the race. It wouldn't have won, but a Placed second could have been possible. Part of the hard luck of racing I suppose; you get favourable conditions some times, and you're left ruing your luck at other times.

The Dubai World Cup draw was made today and clear favourite Twice Over has been unluckily drawn on the outside at post 12th. That is really tough luck for the Henry Cecil colt. Still 3 days to go before the big race, but I have the feeling that the overlooked horse in this race is Gio Ponti.

There are not many American-bred or American-trained turf runners that warrant the same respect as their rest-of-the-world counterparts. Turf racing in America is second-rate as this country predominantly contains the best dirt horses in the world. Gio Ponti is the grass runner with the exception and can hold his own even against the world's best turf horses. He might not win against them, but he will not be outclassed either. The other peculiar thing about Gio Ponti is that he completely outruns his pedigree. His sire is Tale of the Cat, a pure dirt horse sprinter. Gio Ponti has won at stamina-laden turf races such as the Arlington Million. But let's put pedigree aside, and evaluate his chances in the big race.

He has won on dirt and turf, and is proven on synthetic, coming out second behind Zenyatta in the Breeders Cup Classic in 2009 at Santa Anita. He's also proven on the Tapeta having come out 4th in the same race last year, and was the second-best finisher of the race behind Lizard's Desire. His off-place finish one length from winner Gloria di Campeao is remarkable given the fact that he was not tip-top 100% according to his trainer. According to the latter, he's in excellent shape this time round.  The distance won't be a problem as he's won at a mile and a half, and he will definitely be among the best finishers. But what catches the eye for me is that he's met favourite Twice Over twice, and he's beaten him both times. The first encounter was in the above-mentioned BC Classic where Gio Ponti came out second, and Twice Over third behind the incomparable Zenyatta. In last year's DWC, Gio Ponti was 4th while Twice Over was 10th. Factor in the big draw advantage this year where Gio will start from stall 5 while Twice Over from stall 12th, and you can see that if Twice Over is 2/1, then can  Gio Ponti be 12/1?

The only negative point with the American colt is that it will be his first race since November last year. He does not have a prep run in him, unlike Twice Over who's bound to improve further from his impressive seasonal debut at Meydan a few weeks ago. Although his past performances seem to indicate that he runs well fresh, it remains to be seen how much of a disadvantage that will be in this most competitive race. Still, at 12/1 right now for a Win, there could be value for a Place or each-way bet on him. Unless conditions change in the next few days, I see him as a good value bet to be in the first 3 at this point. I'll re-assess that view of him as the picture comes clearer in the next coming days.

Musings from the week-end.

6 winning recommendations out of 8, with the remaining 2 voided, is what I would call a super week-end. Barcelona, Real Madrid, Man Utd, Lazio, Inter and Napoli all won, while Arsenal and Tottenham drew for voided bets.

Man Utd have that will to win, and even with 10 men, they managed to get the 3 points. It's been well reported that this is no vintage Man Utd team, but I would say this Man Utd team is by far over-performing than its predecessors. Of course, their hopes for the title are being greatly aided by the misfiring of their rivals, none more so than Arsenal that can't shake off their 'choker' mantra. The Gunners could still win it at the end, given their easier schedule, but losing 5 points to West Brom is not what you would typically call title-deserving. Chelsea are winning again but they have too much ground to cover. Man City and Tottenham definitely look out of it.

In La Liga, it was business as usual with Barcelona and Real Madrid winning. This is just great from a punting point of view as the results are very predictable. At this point, these 2 teams are doing enough to win their matches, with their minds on their direct clashes in League and Cup games and most possibly Champions League. Mouth-watering prospects for football fans.

In Italy, Inter are only 2 points back of Milan. Their improbable qualification at the hands of Bayern in the Champions League will have given them renewed self-confidence, and this team is certainly good enough to win the Serie A again, and also reach the final of the Champions League. Milan seem to be out of gas, and the momentum is definitely on Inter's side.

Some off-field football news with Capello handling the armband to Terry again. It amuses me that the protagonists in this saga namely Capello, Terry and Ferdinand are making such a big story out of it. Does the England fan care? Or does the England fan care whether these flops are going to finally win a trophy? The whole England setup (team, staff) have left such disappointment in the wake of the last World Cup that the decisions or indecisions about the captaincy sound superfluous.

Finally a note on racing where it was announced today that Bold Silvano won't make the Dubai World Cup. Shame really, I had real hopes on seeing him in the first 3. Also, Snow Fairy won't make the Scheema Classic. Oh well, I'm sure there'll be lots of opportunities on the race card to pounce on. This week I'll sure be keeping up to date with the developments and countdown leading to this great meeting. And I'll be sure to keep this blog posted on any value bets I can find on the all-weather cards and football. Thanks for staying tuned.

Impressive Twice Over

Real Madrid won big time but even their big wins will be only academic if Barcelona keep winning. In racing, Simon de Montfort tailed off in his race won by his stable-mate Monterosso. A disappointing result, and it will be interesting to hear from the connections what actually happened to the King Best colt. Musir was a game second behind Twice Over and was a good Place prediction. There are really two things that I can conclude at the end of this race; Musir is a pure miler and is best at 8-9 furlongs. He will have to stretch if he is to win the Dubai World Cup. Second, Twice Over couldn't have been more impressive with his comeback run, and is certainly a live contender for winning the DWC. I thought a couple of weeks ago that this race could not get out of the grasp of Mike de Kock with his duo of Bold Silvano and Musir, but Twice Over is making me think things over! Really exciting to say the least, and I hope that Buena Vista can show her mettle in the weeks ahead too.

On Friday, I like Borussia Dortmund as it hosts Cologne in the Bundesliga. Dortmund should win this, and at the very least draw as they march towards the title. So a draw-no-bet on the hosts is recommended.

Draw-no-bet: Borussia Dortmund

Mike de Kock in force

I was mentioning that a Place bet on Monster Crunchie at better than odds-on, would be worth it for punters looking for a bet. The Deep Impact filly came out third and was available at around 3/2 Place last time I checked, so hopefully there were some of you that latched onto it. I could not outright recommend her as a new-comer, but it gives me confidence that my analysis was correct. I tell you, these Deep Impacts are worth watching, just like the Sea the Stars progenies will be in a few years time.

To continue on the racing streak, tomorrow is Meydan day. At the risk of being repetitive, it seems to be another fruitful meeting for the de Kock stable. It will just be a matter of picking the right horses for the stable. "Musir is flying and should go close" according to the trainer. These kinds of bullish comments often mean the expectation is very high. I was not surprised when Mike said that Bold Silvano was his best ever World Cup hope after the devastating win by the son of Silvano last week. But I was a little surprise he did not say that both Bold Silvano and Musir were his best hopes. Anyway, Musir is a classy horse who's only disadvantage on Thursday will be to get rid of cobwebs after a 325-day absence. I recommend him as a Place bet.

Out of other de Kock runners, I like classy filly Raihana to also Place. It will be interesting how she measures with Godolphin's Kingsfort, who I rate very highly. I also like Zanzamar; my only concern is that Richard Hills has a tendency to mess up on short favourites, in my opinion and experience. Golden Sword had a great last race which seems to show that he was back to his best, so is recommended as a Place in a race that seems winnable.

Place: Musir, Raihana, Golden Sword

Friday Lingfield Preview

Bold Silvano won at Meydan today and although I am not one to jump to conclusions, I must say we might very well have seen the future Dubai World Cup winner. He won with authority against a talented field on his first outing on the Tapeta surface. And he was obviously not at his peak fitness. If he stays injury-free and moves forward as expected, he will take all the beating on World Cup day. The other horse that caught the eye in the same race was Interaction, the Argentinian star. He had a horrible trip but still managed to stay on for 3rd place. I don't think he would have won the race but that run will have brought him on enormously, and if he runs to his true potential, he is one to follow during the Carnival.

Staying in racing, I like Baileys Agincourt in the 14.20 Lingfield card on Friday. Mark Johnston's horses are on fire, and this is a weak contest for the son of Beat Hollow. A repeat of his last run should see him out in the first finishing 3. So a Place on Baileys Agincourt is recommended.

Place: Baileys Agincourt

Bold run from Bold Silvano?

Fulham and Real Madrid won their matches for a perfect one-two punch. Now we have confirmation of a dream final between Barcelona and Madrid. We'll see how to make of it in due time. But I watched a "supposedly-weakened" Barcelona team tear away Almeira. You wouldn't think that team was resting a few of the first-team players; their fringe players can fit in straight in their awesome football.

Tomorrow is racing day at Meydan. By all accounts the meeting last week was very disappointing as both of the de Kock horses I relied on failed to fire.

This week, Bold Silvano, the much-touted son of Silvano makes his seasonal debut. According to his trainer, he's 85% ready and a "big run" is expected. Translate this into a Win is expected. But wait a minute, there are other big guns in there as well; Last year's Dubai World Cup favourite Gitano Hernando also makes his come-back as he prepares for the big race again. So does Interaction, the South American star who went to Europe in a failed bid to run in the Arc last year. Al Shemali and Crowded House are of Group level as well. A great race with 5 Group 1 winners. I will still stick with Bold Silvano as there are only positive vibes from the training yard regarding his form and fitness. I believe the best from South Africa can match the best the world has to offer in Dubai. Bold Silvano is recommended to Place in the first 3.


Place: Bold Silvano