Man City & Chelsea won, Newcastle drew, and Tottenham was thrashed against nemesis Arsenal despite taking a 2-goal lead.
Harry Redknapp is an excellent manager, possibly the best English one out there, but you get the feeling that sometimes his teams can play in a kamikaze way such that leading by two goals does not mean an automatic 3 points. He just does not park the bus in front of goal. Contrast this with Mourinho where his team will never lose whenever they have a 2-goal margin. Different managerial styles and different effectiveness as well. Hopefully whenever Redknapp gets the England job, he will ensure that the result is the only thing counting; spectacular football does not exist or count in international football!
Ryan Giggs is just an amazing footballer. Not counting his 900th EPL game, simply look at his winning goal for the Man Utd in the last second of their match at Norwich. Coolness personified. The guy's is rightly a legend among the Old Trafford faithful and at thirty-eight, he is still one of the best out there! He goes past youngsters as if he were in his twenties!
At the end of the week-end, Man City look as strong as ever. The return of Tevez will help them. Man Utd will keep the pressure and it will come down to how mentally good Mancini and his men are. The title is theirs to lose and they have got it all to prove. They definitely look good value from the recommendation on them months ago.
In horse racing in the US, the trials for the Kentucky Derby are coming fast and furious and this week-end saw the impressive return of Union Rags. He looks the part and although it's too early to have any type of punt on the race, he's the deserving front-runner at this point. The last few years have been such prominent types in the market being jinxed by injuries prior to the race etc, hopefully this colt will have a chance to prove his worth come the first week of May.
Showing posts with label Kentucky Derby. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kentucky Derby. Show all posts
Monday, February 27, 2012
Friday, February 17, 2012
Week-end preview
Rerouted came out a good Place in third behind Delegator, but the good selection was offset with Rio de la Plata finishing a non-threatening 7th in the mile race. Two bad runs out of two for Rio de la Plata at Meydan, gives enough credence to the fact that the son of Rahy does not like the track, as was the fear in the previous post.
This week-end will be quieter than usual with the FA Cup matches taking over from the EPL. The competition is a breeding ground for upsets, more so because even the big guns don't always field in their best teams. The certainty level of any match is almost nil, which makes it better to skip analyzing the fixture list altogether from a punting point of view.
Looking at La Liga, and Real Madrid welcome Santander. In normal circumstances, this is a straight win for the hosts. Given their comfortable cushion at the top, and with a Champions League game coming up, will Mourinho field his best team? Possibly not! But I expect him to field a team good enough to win the 3 points. Real is recommended as a Win, but throw this away if the starting line-up on Saturday is close to being the reserve team itself!
La Ligue 1 sees a match of leaders between Montpellier and PSG. The latter will certainly look at the home field advantage to try to extend their 1-point lead. Ancelotti has had his men in pretty fine shape and form since his arrival and I expect him to come out with the right tactical nous to overcome the visitors. I recommend PSG as a draw-no-bet.
In racing, Animal Kingdom, winner of last year's Kentucky Derby makes his seasonal re-appearance at Gulfstream Park on turf. The son of Leroidesanimaux will use this outing as a springboard to the Dubai World Cup next month. His bullet works have looked promising and although he shouldn't be in peak condition, he should have too much class for the field. I expect him to Win.
Win: Real Madrid, Animal Kingdom
Draw-no-bet: PSG
This week-end will be quieter than usual with the FA Cup matches taking over from the EPL. The competition is a breeding ground for upsets, more so because even the big guns don't always field in their best teams. The certainty level of any match is almost nil, which makes it better to skip analyzing the fixture list altogether from a punting point of view.
Looking at La Liga, and Real Madrid welcome Santander. In normal circumstances, this is a straight win for the hosts. Given their comfortable cushion at the top, and with a Champions League game coming up, will Mourinho field his best team? Possibly not! But I expect him to field a team good enough to win the 3 points. Real is recommended as a Win, but throw this away if the starting line-up on Saturday is close to being the reserve team itself!
La Ligue 1 sees a match of leaders between Montpellier and PSG. The latter will certainly look at the home field advantage to try to extend their 1-point lead. Ancelotti has had his men in pretty fine shape and form since his arrival and I expect him to come out with the right tactical nous to overcome the visitors. I recommend PSG as a draw-no-bet.
In racing, Animal Kingdom, winner of last year's Kentucky Derby makes his seasonal re-appearance at Gulfstream Park on turf. The son of Leroidesanimaux will use this outing as a springboard to the Dubai World Cup next month. His bullet works have looked promising and although he shouldn't be in peak condition, he should have too much class for the field. I expect him to Win.
Win: Real Madrid, Animal Kingdom
Draw-no-bet: PSG
Friday, September 30, 2011
The Arc 2011 - History beckons for So You Think
The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is the greatest and most prestigious of all races, in my opinion. For others, it is the Epsom Derby, the Kentucky Derby, the Dubai World Cup, the Breeders Cup Classic, or the Melbourne Cup, but the Arc is my favourite, from a pure racing point of view. The best horse of the race almost always wins. And it's usually the best horse in the world at the classic mile and a half distance.
This year's Arc is one of the most open in recent years, with no clear front-runner in the betting market. My opinion is if So You Think runs to his true ability, it will be a one-horse show. Here's my lowdown on the main contestants.
Sarafina is deservingly among the favourites. She came out third in last year's race the winner after being checked entering the straight. With a clear run, she would have been closer than the 2 lengths she finished off the winner. This year, she has been drawn in the 13th stall, which is a very bad draw, but since she comes from off the pace, that disadvantage will be negligible. She's in top form according to her trainer and I see her being among the strong finishers although seeing her winning it looks to be a stretch.
Workforce is the defending champion and he certainly would have a good chance of repeating if he's on his best form. One negative is that his jockey Ryan Moore has just returned to the saddle yesterday Friday after an injury layoff and will not be at 100% of his powers. The King Best colt is not to be dismissed but he would need some luck in running to beat the opposition this year.
Snow Fairy can mix it up with the colts no problem. I consider her as one of the 3 best middle-distance distaffers in the world. Her light race schedule this year will see her being in top form on Sunday. On her last race, she gave So You Think a scare and finished a lot closer to him than I thought she would. She will be ridden by Dettori which is a plus. She looks to be a very good Place prospect.
Treasure Beach is one of the best 3 year-olds at the distance and would have won 2 Derbies were it not for the exploits of Pour Moi. The Galileo colt also won a Grade 1 in the U.S and looks an uncomplicated sort who should find no problem adapting to the Longchamp track. He must have an outside chance and if race conditions are favourable to him, he could spring an upset.
So You Think has won 4 out of 5 in his European outings and his only loss has been well documented as a self-confessed trainer error. It is striking that the same trainer is insisting that SYT is a 10-furlong horse. How can a horse that very nearly won the Melbourne Cup be treated as a 10-furlong specialist? If that's the way the horse has been trained since joining the Ballydoyle stable, most possibly due for breeding purposes, then he will not have a chance against the other seasoned stayers. Speed being the attraction nowadays, O'Brien might have gotten directives from the Coolmore brass to make SYT as the best 10f horse around. But his pedigree screams 12f, just like his sire High Chapparal. The only other question mark is the assignment of Heffernan as jockey. The Irishman is far from proven on the French track and when chips are as big as this. My take on SYT is clear; if he's not been messed about by his genius-like, yet flawed trainer, and he's not subject to a pilot error, he's going to win because he's a notch above every single horse in the race.
Of the rest of the field, Galikova is going to be great next year, but has not yet attained the level required to win this year's edition. Saint Nicholas Abbey has been mostly hype and is just not good enough. The Japanese horses are the big question mark and it would not be entirely surprising if one of them came out the winner.
My trifecta selection is So You Think, Snow Fairy, Sarafina. This is the grandest stage of all for the Australasian superstar to cement his status as one of the all-time greats.
This year's Arc is one of the most open in recent years, with no clear front-runner in the betting market. My opinion is if So You Think runs to his true ability, it will be a one-horse show. Here's my lowdown on the main contestants.
Sarafina is deservingly among the favourites. She came out third in last year's race the winner after being checked entering the straight. With a clear run, she would have been closer than the 2 lengths she finished off the winner. This year, she has been drawn in the 13th stall, which is a very bad draw, but since she comes from off the pace, that disadvantage will be negligible. She's in top form according to her trainer and I see her being among the strong finishers although seeing her winning it looks to be a stretch.
Workforce is the defending champion and he certainly would have a good chance of repeating if he's on his best form. One negative is that his jockey Ryan Moore has just returned to the saddle yesterday Friday after an injury layoff and will not be at 100% of his powers. The King Best colt is not to be dismissed but he would need some luck in running to beat the opposition this year.
Snow Fairy can mix it up with the colts no problem. I consider her as one of the 3 best middle-distance distaffers in the world. Her light race schedule this year will see her being in top form on Sunday. On her last race, she gave So You Think a scare and finished a lot closer to him than I thought she would. She will be ridden by Dettori which is a plus. She looks to be a very good Place prospect.
Treasure Beach is one of the best 3 year-olds at the distance and would have won 2 Derbies were it not for the exploits of Pour Moi. The Galileo colt also won a Grade 1 in the U.S and looks an uncomplicated sort who should find no problem adapting to the Longchamp track. He must have an outside chance and if race conditions are favourable to him, he could spring an upset.
So You Think has won 4 out of 5 in his European outings and his only loss has been well documented as a self-confessed trainer error. It is striking that the same trainer is insisting that SYT is a 10-furlong horse. How can a horse that very nearly won the Melbourne Cup be treated as a 10-furlong specialist? If that's the way the horse has been trained since joining the Ballydoyle stable, most possibly due for breeding purposes, then he will not have a chance against the other seasoned stayers. Speed being the attraction nowadays, O'Brien might have gotten directives from the Coolmore brass to make SYT as the best 10f horse around. But his pedigree screams 12f, just like his sire High Chapparal. The only other question mark is the assignment of Heffernan as jockey. The Irishman is far from proven on the French track and when chips are as big as this. My take on SYT is clear; if he's not been messed about by his genius-like, yet flawed trainer, and he's not subject to a pilot error, he's going to win because he's a notch above every single horse in the race.
Of the rest of the field, Galikova is going to be great next year, but has not yet attained the level required to win this year's edition. Saint Nicholas Abbey has been mostly hype and is just not good enough. The Japanese horses are the big question mark and it would not be entirely surprising if one of them came out the winner.
My trifecta selection is So You Think, Snow Fairy, Sarafina. This is the grandest stage of all for the Australasian superstar to cement his status as one of the all-time greats.
Friday, May 6, 2011
Title Showdown
Today Friday, got 2 good racing recommendations out of 3; Elnawin won its race at Ascot at 13/2 for an excellent return while Royal Liaison came out Placed 3rd at Hamilton. Fine Style, on the other hand, could only come out 3rd while I expected it to win.
Here we go for the week-end's predictions; Sunday sees the deciding game in the Premier League where the winner takes all at Old Trafford. Man Utd host Chelsea and on paper, are favourites to beat their rivals and all but secure the title.
Alex Ferguson came up with a masterstroke this week by fielding a weakened Utd side to beat Schalke and qualify for the Champions League final. This allowed most of his first team to rest for the showdown with Chelsea. A bold decision that would have been classified suicidal if Schalke had caused an upset; but upset there was none. So will a rested Utd full team be able to overcome a Chelsea team that will be not only apt to defend its title but also look for revenge after its ouster at the hands of the Red Devils in the Champions League? I think so. Utd are excellent at home and are in good form. Their confidence will be boosted by their recent qualification to the European final. Even Chelsea fans will recognize that their team has been on the lucky end of the referees' decisions in their past games and should actually be more than 3 points adrift. Drogba and co won't go without a fight but it will be a daunting task of them to go win at Old Trafford. They did it last year, but the circumstances were different. Unless they get the rub of the referee-ing again, which is not impossible, Chelsea will not win on Sunday, in my opinion. I recommend a draw-no-bet on Man Utd.
In the other EPL games, I see the Tottenham v/s Blackpool game being high-scoring, and the hosts should prevail. I recommend them as an outright win. I like Bolton's chances against Sunderland as the Black Cats are having a lot of injury problems at the meantime. Bolton is a recommended draw-no-bet. Fulham hosts Liverpool and to me, the Cottagers are the big value bet of the week-end. They are difficult to deal with on home soil, and Liverpool do have trouble on the road. So I see Fulham as a draw-no-bet is an excellent-return value punt.
In Spain, Barcelona play after Madrid's visit to Sevilla, so it's useless to speculate on the outcome at the Nou Camp as much of it will depend on how things turn out at the Sanchez Pizjuan. I like Valencia's chances at home to Real Sociedad. The latter beat Barcelona in fortuitous circumstances last week, and will welcome any precious points on the road until the end of the season. Valencia are on see-saw form of late but should have too much firepower for the visitors. I recommend the hosts as draw-no-bet.
In Scotland, the tables have been turned upside down with the defeat of Celtic at the hands of Inverness in mid-week. The advantage is in the Rangers camp, who host Hearts at Ibrox. The visitors are a decent team by Scottish league standards and did beat Rangers earlier this year. However with the momentum on their side, I cannot see Walter Smith's side losing this encounter at home. I recommend them as draw-no-bet.
Finally two things of note in racing. First, St Nicholas Abbey returned to winning ways today by trouncing a second-grade field at Chester. If this run confirms his return to this old self, then we're in for a treat as far as the rest of the campaign at Classic distances go. An Arc or King George with Workforce, So You Think, St Nick Abbey, Planteur could be very interesting...
Second and last, the Kentucky Derby will be run on Saturday. This year's edition looks like a competitive affair with no colt really standing out. Most of the field goes there with good form behind them and it seems that tactics and the weather could play a big part in the outcome. Without going through any recommendation, I think this race might benefit a closer and Nehro seems to be a very good one. I will also take a particular look at Master of the Hounds, the European representative from the Ballydoyle operation. The odds are stacked against it as it's never run on dirt before. However, who knows, anything seems possible in this year's race.
Win: Tottenham
Draw-no-bet: Man Utd, Bolton, Fulham, Valencia, Rangers.
Here we go for the week-end's predictions; Sunday sees the deciding game in the Premier League where the winner takes all at Old Trafford. Man Utd host Chelsea and on paper, are favourites to beat their rivals and all but secure the title.
Alex Ferguson came up with a masterstroke this week by fielding a weakened Utd side to beat Schalke and qualify for the Champions League final. This allowed most of his first team to rest for the showdown with Chelsea. A bold decision that would have been classified suicidal if Schalke had caused an upset; but upset there was none. So will a rested Utd full team be able to overcome a Chelsea team that will be not only apt to defend its title but also look for revenge after its ouster at the hands of the Red Devils in the Champions League? I think so. Utd are excellent at home and are in good form. Their confidence will be boosted by their recent qualification to the European final. Even Chelsea fans will recognize that their team has been on the lucky end of the referees' decisions in their past games and should actually be more than 3 points adrift. Drogba and co won't go without a fight but it will be a daunting task of them to go win at Old Trafford. They did it last year, but the circumstances were different. Unless they get the rub of the referee-ing again, which is not impossible, Chelsea will not win on Sunday, in my opinion. I recommend a draw-no-bet on Man Utd.
In the other EPL games, I see the Tottenham v/s Blackpool game being high-scoring, and the hosts should prevail. I recommend them as an outright win. I like Bolton's chances against Sunderland as the Black Cats are having a lot of injury problems at the meantime. Bolton is a recommended draw-no-bet. Fulham hosts Liverpool and to me, the Cottagers are the big value bet of the week-end. They are difficult to deal with on home soil, and Liverpool do have trouble on the road. So I see Fulham as a draw-no-bet is an excellent-return value punt.
In Spain, Barcelona play after Madrid's visit to Sevilla, so it's useless to speculate on the outcome at the Nou Camp as much of it will depend on how things turn out at the Sanchez Pizjuan. I like Valencia's chances at home to Real Sociedad. The latter beat Barcelona in fortuitous circumstances last week, and will welcome any precious points on the road until the end of the season. Valencia are on see-saw form of late but should have too much firepower for the visitors. I recommend the hosts as draw-no-bet.
In Scotland, the tables have been turned upside down with the defeat of Celtic at the hands of Inverness in mid-week. The advantage is in the Rangers camp, who host Hearts at Ibrox. The visitors are a decent team by Scottish league standards and did beat Rangers earlier this year. However with the momentum on their side, I cannot see Walter Smith's side losing this encounter at home. I recommend them as draw-no-bet.
Finally two things of note in racing. First, St Nicholas Abbey returned to winning ways today by trouncing a second-grade field at Chester. If this run confirms his return to this old self, then we're in for a treat as far as the rest of the campaign at Classic distances go. An Arc or King George with Workforce, So You Think, St Nick Abbey, Planteur could be very interesting...
Second and last, the Kentucky Derby will be run on Saturday. This year's edition looks like a competitive affair with no colt really standing out. Most of the field goes there with good form behind them and it seems that tactics and the weather could play a big part in the outcome. Without going through any recommendation, I think this race might benefit a closer and Nehro seems to be a very good one. I will also take a particular look at Master of the Hounds, the European representative from the Ballydoyle operation. The odds are stacked against it as it's never run on dirt before. However, who knows, anything seems possible in this year's race.
Draw-no-bet: Man Utd, Bolton, Fulham, Valencia, Rangers.
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