EPL and Carling Cup Final preview

Saturday's Carling Cup final will pit 2 teams with an ocean of class between them. Swansea is fighting for an Europa spot in the Premier League while Bradford is plying its trade 3 leagues below in League 2 football. There is no way you can go with Bradford City on this one. Granted, there have been shocks in finals before; just a few years back, Birmingham was on its way to relegation from the EPL and still managed to beat heavily-favoured Arsenal. The realilty is Arsene Wenger has lost more finals than he's won, so it was not a shock of cataclysmic proportions.

Here we have a Swansea team led by an upcoming manager in Laudrup, who will be keen to get the first major trophy of this fledging managerial career. They boast in the ranks one of the top strikers in the EPL today in Michu, who's been one of the revelations of the year. The welsh club are one of select sides, besides the usual top teams, that play good incisive football, that will create problems to any side they encounter.

The reality for Bradford is to try barricade its box and desperately rely on counter-attacks for a deadly goal or make the match last till the lottery of penalties. That would be their best chance of lifting the trophy against all odds. I don't think it will happen, no matter how nice a Cinderella story that would be. Bradford has a huge task facing this talented Swansea side. Looking at the odds, I will go for Swansea to lift the cup in the end, and although the chances are that they will settle the issue inside regular time, a draw-no-bet on them looks safe as well.

Here are my thoughts on some of the week-end matches in the EPL.

Arsenal v/s Villa. Not surprisingly, Arsenal seem destined to win nothing again. They were booted out of the FA Cup last week, they are nearly down and out in the Champions League against Bayern, and they stand no chance in winning the EPL. The best target they can aim for, like in previous years, is at least a 4th place finish in the EPL that will guarantee them UCL football next season. They will have to be wary of Benteke, the Villa striker that seems to be scoring for fun lately. I don't see many goals in this one mainly because the Gunners are bound to feel the effects of Wednesday's drubbing against the Germans, and the Villains will certainly opt for a defensive display to try to sneak a point out of the contest. Still, it might be good value to opt for Arsenal as a draw-no-bet.

QPR v/s Man Utd. I posed the question before the Real Madrid game on how good or bad were the Red Devils. I think they showed they were a very good team that could rival with the best of them any day. This team can play different types of systems; defensive, counter-attacking, offensive, man-marking, and the thing is that they are always a goal-threat with the likes of Van Persie and Rooney. The talent at the disposal of Sir Alex Ferguson is scary; Nani, Chicharito, Anderson don't even have a spot in the first team at the moment. Harry Redknapp's teams used to cause problems to Man Utd years ago, but it seems that he can't find the magic touch against them lately. The truth is, no matter the big signings since the start of the season, Rangers looks a very unbalanced team with a very suspect team play and even a maestro like Redknapp is having trouble righting the sinking ship. This could be a big night for Van Persie to add to his goal tally. Man Utd are a Win selection and they should go 15 points clear by this match.

Man City v/s Chelsea. The hosts have the advantage of not having had an European match to deal with in mid-week. Chelsea can be considered lucky to have scraped through Sparta Prague in the Europa League but they will definitely be feeling the exertions of that match. Last year's fixture was a tight one where the Citizens managed to win after going a goal down, and there is no reason to believe that the match will not be close again this year. They are still the 2 best teams in the EPL after Man Utd. With the seemingly renewed confidence of the strikers Aguero and Tevez, and with the efficient Dzeko, I believe the hosts have the answer to the Chelsea defence. They are a draw-no-bet selection.


Win Cup: Swansea
Win: Man Utd
Draw-no-bet: Swansea, Arsenal, Man City

UCL Wednesday

Barcelona and Shakhtar made it look it easy by powering their way through to the next UCL round.

For tonight's games, I like Arsenal's chances at home to French champions Montpellier. Arsene Wenger has an impeccable record against French opposition in the Europe, and I see no change to this trend tonight. Arsenal will strive for maximum points at home in order to secure qualification and they have the ammunition to do so against average opponents, even without Theo Walcott. Arsenal is a straight win selection.

The UCL games have been somewhat obscured by the sacking of Di Matteo at Chelsea today. The Italian saved the Blues' season last year by landing the FA Cup and the improbable Champions League trophy. They started the  season well and only stuttered in the past month. Does that merit sacking? Looks like in Ambramovich's world, it is! Anyway, I could semi-understand if they already had secured Guardiola's approval to take over. But as I write this, papers seem to put Rafa Benitez as the leading candidate. This must be a joke or paper rubbish, it almost teeters on insanity. If he's really the fancied one, then watch Chelsea disintegrate to a second-rate team. With his record at Liverpool and Inter, there is every reason to believe that he will destroy them, hah!


Win: Arsenal

Kickstart to the season

This is it, start of what promises to be another cracker of an EPL season. Spanish La Liga starts too on Saturday with the expectation that Barcelona and Real Madrid will run away from the pack, a la Frankel. Here are some of my predictions for the first week-end.

Arsenal v/s Sunderland. This is a first serious test for Arsene Wenger and his team. Not just because it's their first match post-RVP, it's also against Martin O'Neil, who's a master giant killer. If the Gunners haven't fully recuperated from the departure of their talisman, they will be made to pay by the visitors. It's a real tricky match for the hosts and there's no certainty that they will come up with the 3 points.

Man City v/s Southampton. The Citizens start their championship defence with a rather easy game against newly-promoted Southampton. Easy 3 points for the hosts here, with in-form Tevez certain to be at the fore-front of things.

Everton v/s Man Utd. The Red Devils always have a hard game at Goodison Park and it will certainly be the case again for their opening game. They might be lucky if they catch an Everton that is not in full-flow at this stage. But the reverse might be true as well. The RVP transfer will certainly have given the squad a big boost. They should either draw or win this game, so a draw-no-bet on the Red Devils looks safe.

Real Madrid v/s Valencia. Real had a really good pre-season winning all their games State-side, but this is not going to be an easy 3 points for the hosts. Their core players have only recently started serious training, so Mourinho will count on a few fringe players to make their mark. Still, their quality should be enough to overcome a Valencia team that is in a rebuilding stage this year. They have at least 6 new acquisitions and will take time to gel as well. Madrid should be able to get the vital 3 points here.

Barcelona v/s Real Sociedad. This is the league debut for new Barcelona manager Tito Vilanova. It is widely expected that the previous assistant coach will continue the highly-successful and formidable system of play of the Blaugrana. That being the case, Barcelona should be headed for the easy win. A note of prudence though that Guardiola lost his first league game in charge of Barcelona. Lightning rarely happens twice though!

The value of the week-end is in racing State-side where Lady of Shamrock looks hard to beat in Saturday's Del Mar Oaks. The winner of the American Oaks is a leading player among the Classic female contingent on turf, having been only beaten once on the surface after a rough trip. She should be in the first 3 and is a Place recommendation.


Win: Man City, Real Madrid, Barcelona

Draw-no-bet: Man Utd
Place: Lady of Shamrock

Premier League 2012/13 Preview

In one swift move, that can be characterized as another moment of brilliance, Alex Ferguson has tilted the balance of power for the coming Premier League season. This is the move that everyone else did not want happen but which the Utd boss desperately needed to catch up with the might of neighbours City. Robin Van Persie's move to Utd is clearly a game changer for both the EPL and Champions League as the Red Devils can now boast about having the best strike force in the world; Rooney, RVP, Chicharito, Kagawa, and Wellbeck, not to mention that the equally good Berbatov is ailing on the sidelines. Since the massive news of the transfer of the Dutchman, rumours are abounding about the parting of Chicharito, and even if that were to happen, the strike force would still be most fearsome. Goals will be bountiful.

I don't have much doubt in my mind that the EPL crown will stay in Manchester this season. On paper, City are still a little better than Utd. They however need to show they can retain the title. It is always so much easier to get to the top than to stay there, as the saying goes. On the managerial side, there is no problem in that regard as Mancini has notched 3 consecutive titles in the Serie A with Inter Milan. The distraction of the Champions League should still leave him focused enough for the EPL challenge. Their main challenge he will face is keeping the team together and minimize off-pitch issues with the likes of Tevez and Balotelli. Although they have been rather muted on the transfer market so far, this City squad is most impressive and can beat any team on any day.

Going back to Utd, their weaknesses lie in defence and midfield, just like last year. Much of their hopes relies on the availability of captain Vidic. His non-availability last year was what caused their demise and they will be destined to the same fate if he spends much time on the sidelines again. He is irreplaceable. In midfield, there is a clear lack of playmaker; Paul Scholes is still high-class but he can only be used sparingly. It is clear that Ferguson wanted upcoming Eden Hazard or Lucas Moura to fill in that gap and the fact that he lost out on both counts will enliven the debate as to who will rule the Utd midfield. If Brazilian Anderson stays fit, he could be the one, but he's too often prone to injuries.

The title will certainly be between Utd and City and Londoners Chelsea or Arsenal should challenge for third place. Chelsea are an enigma team as they have players on the wane and interesting newcomers like Hazard. Di Matteo is a good coach and he's possibly their best permanent signing of the season. If Arsenal stay consistent the whole season, they are my favourites to get that remaining podium spot, even without RVP. Time and again, Arsene Wenger has shown that he can replace the players that have left, and the arrivals of Giroud, Cazorla and Podolski will possibly fill much of the gap. The problem with Arsenal, as I have been writing, is that there is a missing ingredient in Arsene's management that keeps them from reaching the top; that inherent will to win that Ferguson and Mourinho have, that filters through to the whole team and give them 10 extra points during a season. It's not about just pretty football or massive profit targets, it's about winning games when everything is on the line and bringing trophies and making winners out of players.

I see Tottenham under-achieving compared to last year. Clearly getting rid of Redknapp, one of the 5 best managers in the league, is a step down. Villa Boas is good, but does not compare. Liverpool are a re-building side and the arrival of new manager Rogers from Swansea will not make them title contenders.

For those that have an appetite for ante-post or such markets that take months to settle, the following below are my value punts for the EPL given the odds available today. Of course, the season flows and ebbs and prices change significantly during the year but at this stage, those odds look under-priced on the exchanges.

Winner: Man Utd/Man City

Top 2: Man Utd

Top 3: Man City, Man City

Top 4: Arsenal

Lay: Tottenham Top 3, Liverpool Top 4

No chance for the Gunners

I am surprised there are still odds on offer for Milan to qualify against Arsenal in tonight's Champions League qualifier. Take them because Arsenal have no chance of qualifying after their 0-4 defeat at the San Siro. Absolutely no chance. They are not sure even to win this game, let alone win by more than 4 goals. This is not the Milan that let a 3-goal slip to Liverpool in the UCL final a few years back. The Italians would have learned their lesson.

Despite its last 2 wins in the EPL, the Gunners are still a thoroughly exposed team with a leaky defence; they were certainly lucky to get the win at Anfield last week-end. Their only positive note for them is Van Persie but Milan will be all too aware to muzzle him. If the visitors score 1, Arsenal will need 6 goals to qualify on the away goals rule. It's mission impossible for Wenger and his team. I am not even bothering reading his comments on his players having the belief to qualify. That's the only thing he can say and every one knows it won't happen. Even if Arsenal were to score the first goal in the first minute, there would be no need be shaking; they will not qualify today and gone will be their last Cup hope again. However small the odds for Milan to qualify, they are a bargain.


To qualify: Milan

Lousy Dettori ride

Pimpernel backers will rightly feel aggrieved after the shocking ride she was subjected to in the Oaks. Just finished watching the replay again and no matter what Al Zarooni has said about Pimpernel being "too keen early on", the ride from Frankie Dettori merits disgust. She wouldn't have won, but second place was there for the taking, had the Italian shown some vigor aboard. Where was the Dettori full of zest aboard Rewilding in lowering the colors of So You Think at Royal Ascot? Talk about being him being immobile on Pimpernel. If yesterday's race had been run in Hong Kong, the stewards would have sent Frankie on a long expensive holiday, no doubt.

Frankie's a great jockey but he came out with a shameful nugget in that race.

The week-end's EPL match-ups are coming up and you get the feeling that some managers out there are playing for their careers. I don't know who's feeling more pressure right now, Villa Boas or Wenger? Probably the Chelsea manager, as the Frenchman still has some "goodwill" left with the Arsenal board, although that is surely rapidly dwindling! Both teams will win nothing this year, I predict!

Chelsea host Bolton in what are 3 must-win points, or else AVB could be out after the final whistle. I think they'll win although nothing is certain with the club in crisis. Draw-no-bet looks good value at this point and is the recommendation.

Newcastle host Wolves who will be under a new manager. Usually the introduction of a new manager somewhat spurs the team in his first game in charge, but they are really up to a very good Newcastle team at St James Park. The Magpies will have had the time to reflect on their recent drubbing at Tottenham and it's hard to see them losing at home. I recommend the hosts as draw-no-bet as well.

Leaders Man City host Blackburn and this should be straightforward win for the hosts. They have got their players back from the African Nations Cup. More importantly, they have settled things with Tevez, who will be an important asset in the title run-in. Although the Argentinian will not be playing tomorrow, Man City should have ample ammunition to see of Blackburn.

To me, Spurs looks to have the upper hand against Arsenal in the London Derby. The Gunners will play at home but their form is so poor and their team beset by injuries and a lack of confidence, that this is a great opportunity for the high-flying Spurs to prolong their arch-rivals' misery. Besides Van Persie, Tottenham will field a team that is better than Arsenal's in every other position. Spurs look to be the best value punt of the week-end.

Win: Man City
Draw-no-bet: Chelsea, Newcastle, Tottenham

Southwell Tuesday

A very quiet by normal standards, but a winning one with Real and Barcelona both winning. Dubawi Cheetah was scratched and did not run.

It was Manchester 2 London 0 in the match-up of the top teams in the Premier League. Man City were lucky to get the 3 points with a last-gap penalty kick taken by Balotelli. The result could so easily have swung in Tottenham's favour had Defoe not missed a gaping open goal minutes before City's game winner. These 3 points could prove decisive in the end, no doubt.

Man Utd played like champions in winning at the Emirates Stadium. They certainly won't give up the title fight until the end and man-handled Arsenal for a deserved win. The after-match talk was all about the controversial substitution of Arsenal's arguably best player on the pitch Alex Chamberlain after their goal. I agree with those that maintain that Wenger got it wrong (again) there. The young phenom was one of the few players able to cause some havoc in the Mancunian defence and should have continued the game if they were serious of getting the badly-needed 3 points out of the game. Just reading Wenger's post-match analysis would make an Arsenal fan want to cry; he felt they could have won the game comfortably in the second-half. I don't know which game he was looking at, but Man Utd should have easily buried a couple of goals on his Gunners; the visitors were by far the most menacing throughout the game.

In La Liga, Real and Barcelona won as expected and it was another no-event at the top. Ramblings of squad conflict at the Bernabeu are surfacing and it will be interesting if these unsettle the Los Blancos. At the present, Madrid are playing as good professionally as they can in La Liga and I cannot see any reason why they are not to be followed.

On Tuesday, back to racing where the 15:50 race at Southwell looks a good place for Moataz to strike again in the space of 3 days. The Mark Johnston stable is on fire and Moataz looks to be ahead of the handicapper in this average handicap. If the Elusive Quality gelding takes well to the fibresand surface, he should play a major role at the finish. I recommend him as an each-way punt.

Each-way: Moataz

Chances gone at the gates

Ghalaa was un-placed, finding a clear dislike for the soft conditions. Very disappointing, but still one to watch on good to firm ground.

The latest football news look like Fabregas is on his way to Barcelona. At least that would shut up some of the class-less Barcelona players and staff who've been endlessly muttering the "Cesc wants home" song for the past 2 years. This is bad news for Arsenal. Well, it's good news for the club's coffers and possibly for the executives' bonuses, just like it's been for selling Henry, Vieira, Adebayor, Anelka, Petit, Overmars in the past, but it's really bad news for their Cup or title aspirations. All of the above-cited, besides Anelka, were past their prime when Wenger dumped them. The difference is that Fabregas has been the Gunners' heart-beat for the past years and is getting better and better. His exit sends the wrong signal to the team about the priorities of the club; money or cups?

It used to be confined to the likes of Ajax and Porto, which are great hotbeds for nurturing young stars, who are then sold to bigger clubs (like Arsenal) once they've shown their superiority in the lesser Dutch and Portuguese leagues. Arsenal seem to be heading in their direction.

With Nasri also rumoured to wanting out, this is not looking good for the Londoners. Arsenal seem to have lost any chance before the season has started. The odds are good that the drought is about to continue.

This title race is almost over

2 wins, 2 losses and 2 voids, not really great week-end as far as my recommendations went. Man Utd lost and Strong Suit was unplaced. Dortmund and Milan won, and Wolfsburg and Madrid drew late in the game for voided punts.

There were not many things of worthy mention that captivated my mind over the week-end. Until the famous 1-1 draw between Arsenal and Liverpool, that is. I am running out of adjectives describing this Arsenal team. Really, their title challenge is bordering on the farcical. The penalty on Fabregas was right, the penalty on Lucas was not. That, I agree with Wenger. But the actions that led to the Liverpool penalty in the dying seconds of the game, are just beyond belief. Instead of parking the bus, the Gunners allow Liverpool space and bam! Liverpool earn a free-kick at the edge of the box, and the Arsenal are feeling "lucky" that the referee did not give a penalty. But they don't learn. Suarez's free-kick is deflected, and Eboue gets tricked like a novice with Lucas' dummy play and there goes Arsenal hopes. This team has too many things lacking from top to bottom before it can be called championship caliber, in my opinion. A very talented team, but one needing better management and a real Roy Keane-type to keep players on their toes and keep focus.

In La Liga, the Clasico ended in a draw as many pundits thought it would. I don't see why Mourinho is complaining here, Real are very lucky to get a draw out of that game. Barcelona are being as ever impressive, and it still remains to be seen what type of tactics the Portuguese maestro will employ in the upcoming Clasicos.

The more refreshing news came out of racing really. Frankel was dominant again and seems to have lost none of his ability or reputation. From a racing, as well as punting, point of view, I really hope he's THAT good. Also, great news on Sunday when Overdose, the Budapest Bullet, easily won on his return from injury. He seems to have none of his ability either, and broke the track record. Again here, if he could finally bring his best to Royal Ascot and take on the Black Caviar, Rocket Man etc, what a spectacle to behold ahead!

Back to football where Man Utd take on Newcastle on Tuesday. The Red Devils have a pretty awesome history at St James Park in recent years, and they are clear favourites to take the 3 points again. Provided they are unperturbed by the loss to Man City, they should have too much fire-power against the hosts. Rooney is back, Valencia and Nani are firing from the flanks, Ferdinand and Vidic are holding things tight at the back. A draw-no-bet on the Red Devils is recommended as they march towards the title.

Draw-no-bet: Man Utd

Title decider

Retainer won under a great Ryan Moore ride, so the  recommendation was good. Kieren Fallon tried everything on the runner-up but the Hannon colt was just too good. Moore v/s Fallon, I reckon we'll see more of  this rivalry as the season progresses, since they seem to be the main protagonists for the jockey title, according to most.

Back to football where I was reading with interest that a recent survey showed that 80% of surveyed managers in the Premier League thought that Man Utd would go on to win the title this year (75% of the managers were surveyed). I am not sure exactly what date the survey was done and what were the standings at that point, but 80% seems a rather high number considering that not so long ago, everyone was saying that Arsenal had the much easier remaining fixtures. So I just went to look at those to have an idea of my expectations for both teams from their remaining games. Below are the potential points (in brackets) I attribute to them.

Arsenal Total: 18.
Blackburn (3), Blackpool (3), Liverpool (3), Tottenham (0), Bolton (1), Man Utd (1), Stoke (3), Aston Villa (3), Fulham (1)

Man Utd Total: 16
West Ham (1), Fulham (3), Newcastle (1), Everton (3), Arsenal (1), Chelsea (1), Blackburn (3), Blackpool (3)

According to the above exercise, then yes, it seems that Man Utd looks good to win the title as it has a 5 point advantage already. Obviously this system is very flawed since my point attribution is speculative and based on their current form. So many things can change in the coming weeks, such as injuries, loss of form etc. Arsenal have the advantage of having only to focus on the Premier League while Man Utd are still in 3 cups. Many uncertainties will come into play; like who'd thought Arsenal will lose 2 points at West Brom while Utd will win with 10 men against Bolton with 2 minutes remaining last week-end?

However, there are 2 things that seem more or less certain though. First, the match at the Emirates will play a huge factor in the title race. This is a 6-point match. Second, let's go back to the overwhelming 80% manager vote for Man Utd. It's called the Ferguson factor. When everything is on the line, most would rather have Ferguson as the manager than Wenger. Man Utd have that fear factor, the feeling that they will grind out results. Arsenal have the choke factor, they have yet to prove they can duke it out with anyone no matter how difficult the conditions are. There are no easy games at this point, even when they are battling Stoke or Blackpool.

Again, it would pure speculation to say that Man Utd has it won already. That's why there is no recommendation from me here. But they are definitely looking good, particularly that their recent injury crisis seems to have considerably alleviated with many key players coming back.

Thursday Football and Racing

Arsenal won, but with relief against a determined Stoke side. Wenger will however be happy to have bagged 3 important points, and hope that the injuries to Fabregas and Walcott are only minor. In the Champions League, Man Utd drew at Marseille in a relatively boring match. It remains to be seen whether not getting that vital away goal will be detrimental for the return leg.

On Thursday, I can see Man City see off Aris Salonika at home in the Europa League. They played a goalless draw in Greece and City will be keen to use their home advantage to go through. A draw-no-bet on City is recommended.

Thursday is racing at Meydan. I was reading Mike de Kock's comments that much of his success this year lies into his proprietary mix feed he gives to his horses. Mix feed or not, it was obvious from the start that his string of horses this year was really the best he's brought to Dubai, and that his successes were going to continue if not improve. He'll be saddling and expecting a win of Mahbooba in the UAE Oaks. A Win on this Galileo filly is recommended. In the first race, Hunting Tower looks prime for a repeat win, and the danger could be his own stablemate Wonder Lawn. A Place on Hunting Tower is recommended.

Win: Mahbooba
Place: Hunting Tower
Draw-no-bet: Man City

Tottenham did it, can Arsenal?

The knock-out stages of the Champions League just got under-way today, and Tottenham went to get an amazing result at the San Siro. Spurs are supposed to be on a learning mission in their first foray in the European Cup, and yet they are accumulating wins and still standing. Harry Redknapp is a magician really! He can really turn a decent team into a really good one. Probably his off-field problems will hamper his chances of becoming England manager one day, but he sure seems like he would have been a good one. You can bet that the Spurs brass hopes he never gets that job, as they will go downhill from there-on, just like West Ham and Portsmouth did.

Tomorrow is a big day for the Gunners, who face Barcelona at the Emirates stadium. There's been a lot of talking from the Arsenal camp leading to the match about them "matching-up" to Barcelona's level. It will be a massive challenge for them to backup these assertions. They are in good form, with Van Persie on a goal scoring run, but can they deliver on the big stage?  I am hoping for some good attacking football but it could be that Wenger decides that closing the game gives his team the best chance to advance. In my opinion, if Barcelona play near their best, they will be able to exploit the many lapses in the Arsenal defence. I think in the end, Barcelona will prevail or snatch a vital draw, but there's really no point speculating on the outcome. I will watch it mainly from the pure footballing side and hope for a repeat of the match they played last year.

I can't find anything of value to recommend either in football or horse racing on Wednesday. Punt safe.

Arsenal and Man Utd on different missions

After its astonishing defeat in the first leg of the Carling Cup at Portman Road, Arsenal will need to overcome Ipswich at the Emirates Stadium. Arsene Wenger has already stated that he will rotate the squad, but I still think he will at least have his star players on the bench in case things are not going according to planned. I think it will be a case where once Arsenal start scoring, the floodgates will have opened for many more. But it will be crucial for the Gunners to get that first goal. I can't see any value betting on Arsenal outright. What is more certain, and more importantly will bring better returns, is the match-bet on corner kicks. Arsenal should easily win on this one as Ipswich will literally be camping in their own half, so a Corners match-bet on Arsenal is the recommendation.

In the Premier League, leaders Man Utd visit Blackpool. If that game were not postponed and were actually played on the intended date a few weeks back, I would have favoured Blackpool to at least share the spoils. Since then, the form has changed, and Utd have been playing solidly at home and on the road. Their away form is still littered with many drawn matches due to late goals they've uncharacteristically conceded. With the return of Van der Sar, their defence is back to its resilient self and that should provide a solid foundation to their offensive capabilities. Blackpool just got rocked yesterday by the transfer request from their best player, Charlie Adam. They will still have their threatening moments against the Red Devils because they have a good system under manager Holloway, but if Rooney and his teammates are on-song, this should be a no contest. Man Utd to draw-no-bet is the recommendation.

Corners match-bet: Arsenal
Draw-no-bet: Man Utd

Let the Dubai Carnival start

A totally lacklustre Arsenal side lost at Ipswich for an absolutely shocking result! I wonder what excuses Wenger will come out with this time... No excuses from me; my bad for having a totally misplaced faith in a team that does not seem to have the hunger to win when being under pressure, and giving out a bad recommendation on them. This result is as disappointing as they come. Fortunately "trusty" Barcelona easily won against Betis and limited the damage. Messi got another hat-trick and it's just amazing how easily he and Ronaldo are racking up hat-tricks. We are at a unique moment in the history of football where two phenomenons are at the peaks of their powers at the same time, and leaving everything in their wake. Whether you're a Madrid or Barcelona fan or none, it's just time to sit back and enjoy that spectacle.

Let's talk racing now and I'm pretty excited as the Dubai Carnival gets underway at Meydan on Thursday. From a punting point of view, the racing over there can be very hard to assess for many reasons; the horses are coming in from a long break and therefore it is hard to gauge their actual form and fitness, particularly during the first meetings;  it's also difficult to handicap many of the horses because they come from different places such as South America, South Africa, Europe etc; finally, the fields are usually very big and tactics and draw play an important role in the outcome of the races. Still, the main appeal of Dubai racing for me, is that Godolphin and Mike de Kock have been overly dominant for the past years, and I find value in identifying races where the horses from those 2 yards run against unmatched rivals. Easier said than done, but as long as this trend of domination continues, I think it will pay to follow those 2 powerful stables very closely. For, this year in particular, Mike de Kock is bringing his strongest team yet, with the likes of River Jetez, Our Giant, Irish Flame, Bold Silvano etc, as the big guy really wants to win the big race(Dubai World Cup) which so closely elluded him last year.

Consistent with my approach of avoiding punts where there are too many question marks, I will abstain from giving a recommendation on this first meeting. Tomorrow will be more a learning exercise as to which horses are already on song, which ones are nicely coming along, and which ones are close to or past their sell-by date.

Arsenal is spotting a trophy and normality to resume at Barcelona

Arsenal are travelling to Ipswich for the first leg of their semi-final Carling Cup. This year's Cup is certainly the best chance of silverware the Gunners have had for a long time. Arsene Wenger has been criticized for the drought of trophies that has plagued his team for over 5 years now, and he will be the first to realize that failure to land this very winnable prize will only fuel the pressure. Let's face it; West Ham, Birmingham and Ipswich have hardly any chance if Arsenal play their best team to win the Cup. Given this matter of urgency and importance, the Gunners will hardly need any extra motivation from their manager when visiting an Ipswich team that won't ooze confidence after their drubbing at the hands of Chelsea last week-end. I recommend Arsenal as a draw-no-bet because they can't lose that one.

Barcelona host Betis in the Copa del Rey. Following the distraction of the FIFA awards this week whereby their top 3 players were involved in the Player of the Year race, Barcelona should continue their winning ways and stride to the next round. I read some articles today about the Spanish press likening the Messi coronation to a national affront. Surely their expectations were high into thinking that either Iniesta or Xavi would win it. There was another article that was alluding to the start-of-the-end for Barcelona because the seeds of jealousy have been sewn among Messi and his 2 teammates after the award results. This remains to be seen, but I don't think so (unless these 3 players were called Balotelli!). Barcelona will lose its edge in Spain whenever Mourinho has his team ready to usurp them! Not sure how long this will take, this year? next year? That's what makes La Liga so exciting to follow these days. Anyway, back to the game on Wednesday, and I recommend Barcelona as draw-no-bet. They will most probably win the game but I'll stick with the draw-no-bet option because it's a Cup game and probably some first-team players will be rested (and in the last round, got burnt when they drew 0-0 at home against Bilbao).

Draw-no-bet: Barcelona, Arsenal

Thursday racing preview.

Arsenal won as expected, although they labored through it more than they should have. My mean side would love to see a Madrid-Arsenal match-up in the next round so that Mourinho and Wenger can square up again! I think there's still unfinished business between the two and they would both relish to have a chance to outdo each other. That would certainly stir some bad blood up come February next year.

Back to racing, and I like Private Joke in the 9.45 at Wolves on Thursday. It will definitely be in the first 2 and should actually win this, but there is a dark horse in this race in D'Artagnan. This South African raider is rated 80, so will not be as easy fodder as the rest of the field. So, the recommended safe bet is a Place on Private Joke. Some of you who feel more adventurous might go for the outright win. It will all depend on what kind of opposition it gets from D'Artagnan.

Place: Private Joke

Arsenal to go through

Just finished watching the tied game between Man Utd and Valencia. As usual, I cannot thank the draw-no-bet option enough, and it really saves grief when the team you've punted on cannot find that winning goal. So the recommendation on Man Utd as draw-no-bet, ends into a voided bet, which is always better than a losing one. Valencia scored from another Michael Carrick mistake in a European game (Utd fans will surely remember the game against Munich last year), and I wonder if his place is still secure in the Devils' midfield. What looks more or less certain is that the No 2 keeper Kuszczak is on his way out since Amos was selected to start the game.

Tomorrow Wednesday, Arsenal have to beat Partizan Belgrade to be sure to go through. I have no qualms that they will do it. They are in good form (Nasri particularly has been impressing me lately) and I expect them to win this game. Obviously the stakes are too high for Wenger to field too young a team, so I expect him to have a strong line-up even if they are playing lowly opposition. An Arsenal win is the recommendation.

Win: Arsenal