Rogues and cheats

Amidst the fabulous semi-finals of Champions League football and Sprinter Sacre spectable in racing at Punchestown, two bombshells hit the headlines in these sports for the past week; yet-another scandal involving Luis Suarez, and the Al Zarooni drug shame.

The long list of mis-demeanors of Liverpool's Suarez is well-documented; biting at an opponent during his Ajax days, racial abuse towards Man Utd's Evra, refusal to shake hands with the latter in a later game, numerous diving incidents, and the deliberate hand-ball at the goal line against Ghana during a World Cup game. I am less inclined to fault him for that latter obstruction as it was really a reflex to stop being scored against. But his latest chewing at the expense of Chelsea's Ivanovic is less forgivable. It is a case of repeatable barbaric offence which, in my mind, deserves an unconditional heavy punishment. Ten games and Liverpool are sulking? Common, I think he deserves half the season on the sidelines. Let him consider his future in English football; in fact, I think the EPL would be better without his antics. His football skills are evident, but mentally there is definitely something amiss. How much more human meat he needs to chew before Liverpool decide that enough is enough?

The Al Zarooni saga is still unfolding, so not all the elements are pieced together yet before all questions can be clearly answered. It is quite hard to accept his reasoning that he did not know the rules about steroid use in UK racing. I mean, of the past 7 years, there have been 3 drug violations that have been detected; 2 of them were from Al Zarooni himself, for usage of forbidden pain-killers on his horses. It seems unfathomable that had that been naivety of his part back then, that he wouldn't have consulted the drug policies regarding harder drugs like anabolic steroids. His excuse of not knowing the rules does not hold much water. Unlike Suarez, his career is over. It looks to be the case of the young ambitious trainer who had his chance, took it and then blew it. What remains are pertinent questions that hopefully will be answered in the next days, but possibly many others won't be answered; For example, what to make of his successes at the highest level during the past 3 years? Was Monterosso juiced in winning the Dubai World Cup in 2012? He did surprise many by his decisive win on that day. Was Rewilding a worthy winner at Royal Ascot when gunning down heavy favourite So You Think? Many thought, including I, that the Ballydoyle colt was unbeatable that day, which prompted shell-shocked trainer O'Brien to advance that he hadn't prepared the colt adequately. How about Encke foiling Camelot's triple crown bid in the St Leger last year? Pounds, as well as dreams, were shed by many on that Classic, and they could very well have been for the wrong reasons if the Godolphin representative benefited from an illegal boost on the occasion.

Unlike some, I think that Godolphin will survive this. They are too huge to go under, just like the saying in the financial world, where there are banks that are too big to fail. There's every chance that Suarez will continue his controversial path and find something up his sleeve when he comes back. It just wouldn't shock anyone anymore. On further thoughts, maybe it could still shock, you never know with Suarez.

Dubai World Cup 2013 selections

The first major event of the racing calendar takes place in Meydan on Saturday on Dubai World Cup day. While it might not be the congregation of the best horses in the world, the prize money on offer and the plurality of origins of the contestants, make this an unmissable and a truly world contest. This is why also, in my opinion, it is a truer world championship than what the Breeders Cup pretends to be. Anyway, here are some thoughts on some of the races on the night.

Godolphin Mile
It's hard to see past unbeaten Soft Falling Rain, who diverted from the UAE Derby because of obvious stamina limitations. This son of National Assembly will be the first 3 year-old to run in the contest and will aim to be the first one to win it as well. He is a course and distance winner already, although the opposition will be the fiercest he'd faced to date. I believe he should in be in first 2 and is worthy of the extra risk of having him as a Win. His main opponents look to be Zazoum Surfer and Moonwalk in Paris.

Dubai Gold Cup
I like Tenenbaum as a Place here. He was the best finisher in the Nad Al Sheba Trophy behind a few of these, the trial to this race. That race was his seasonal debut; he missed the break and was not suited by the slow pace. He came out a fast closing fourth. He should be in much better disposition on Saturday and I see him as a major player. Al Zarooni always seems to prop one on the big occasions and I believe Tenenbaum will be his main chance of a breakthrough. The opposition will come from Star Empire, Imperial Monarch and Ahzeemah.

UAE Derby
Unbeaten Secret Number seems to hold all the aces here and my only worry is that he's only raced two times in his career. For all I know, his half-brother to high-class Dubai Destination and Librettist could be an upcoming superstar after easily winning his 2 races. Yet, his lack of seasoning for such a competitive race is definitely a concern. On ratings, he's already higher than the rest of the field and given his expected improvement from his last run, he must have a good chance. I will have him as each-way. Shuruq, Elleval and Lines of Battle should provide the main opposition.

Al Quoz Sprint
If Shea Shea does a repeat of his last performance, he should win this one. He should certainly be in the first 3. The dark horse of the race comes from Singapore in Mr Big. This is my idea of the perfect horse to punt since he's never been out of the placings in 19 starts. It might be worth taking the extra risk and have a Place punt on him if you're willing to accept his form from Singapore.

Golden Shaheen
If Tenenbaum is Al Zarooni's best chance of the night, then fellow Australian Mental is a close second one. He won impressively on his last run on the Tapeta and looks to be a class act. The American horses Trinniberg and Private Zone are the dark horses of the race; we know they are speedy but the question is how they will handle the Tapeta. Trinniberg is the better horse of the two but only has form on dirt. Private Zone has run 3 times on the Hollywood Park and Del Mar synthetic tracks before although he only has a second-place to show for. I will stick with Mental as a rather safe Place here.

Dubai Duty Free
Without question, Igugu has to be considered the biggest flop ever to land in Meydan, so far. I would love her to put the record straight finally in the Duty Free but it will be a tough sell; this field is deep and good and if she's still far from the top of her game, she will have no chance, even with her large allegiance of supporters. Connections seem to favour The Apache, who's been rather impressive in his 2 previous outings, winning the first one, and coming out a good second last time out. This is a race I will happily lay 2 horses that are among the leading fancies in the market; Ocean Park and Trade Storm.They are way over-priced. I think Australia/NZ have the best turf sprinters in the world. Except for a few stars like So You Think, Elvestroem and Makybe Diva, I question heavily the form of their other milers or middle-distance runners of late. I might be wrong but I feel that Ocean Park will feel the heat against the best opposition he's ever faced. Same for Trade Storm. I admire the way he's trounced his rivals in his 2 impressive wins at Meydan but I feel Saturday is an entirely different proposition. He might be close to the finish but I don't believe he will win. Laying these 2 horses is my selection for this race.

Dubai Scheema Classic
Gentildonna could just be the best Deep Impact out there and her form in beating Orfevre in the Japan Cup must make her a leading contender here. She seems to have acclimatized very well to Meydan and it would not be of any surprise if she beats this good field. Await the Dawn and St Nicholas Abbey should provide the main opposition. I will go with the Japanese superstar for the win and Await the Dawn looks good value at current odds for a Place.

Dubai World Cup
This is a wide open race and the winner looks to be coming from either Godolphin, the American contingent or Treasure Beach from the Mike de Kock stable. Hunter's Light and Kassiano should be the major players from boys in blue. I believe Animal Kingdom is the main US hope. The Kentucky Derby winner had seemed out of the place the start of the week in his new surroundings, but indications are that he's since been working good. Treasure Beach has looked promising on the surface, closing fastest in his seasonal reappearance in the Al Maktoum Challenge 3, the trial to this race. Given his room for improvement, he could be a major player and do a Lizard's Desire for the de Kock team. At current odds, I will go with an each-way couple here with Treasure Beach and Kassiano. If any of the two end up in the first 3, it will a handsome payoff. I actually think Kassiano could win this thing.

I am not keen on Royal Delta or Dullahan although I am sure many pundits have them at the forefront of their selections. I think Royal Delta can dominate the distaff division all she wants, but going against seasoned colts is an entirely different matter. I don't think Dullahan is good enough or even has a liking the surface, based on his last run a few weeks back. So, I will be laying both.


Win: Soft Falling Rain, Secret Number, Gentildonna
Place: Tenenbaum, Shea Shea, Mental, Mr Big, Await the Dawn
Each-way: Kassiano/Treasure Beach
Lay: Ocean Park, Trade Storm, Royal Delta, Dullahan

Open Classic

Carlton House obliged by making a winning return despite looking unsettled through most part of the race. The talent is definitely there, but his keen-ness will have to be corrected if he is to be play a leading role in the top middle-distance races this year. Maybe it was his re-adaptation to the racing surroundings. Colombian, on the other hand, failed to fire. He wasn't far off behind, but , it seems to me that he probably acts better on softer conditions.

Tomorrow is Oaks day and the Fillies Classic looks a very open affair; it would not be surprising that the winner turns out to be a long-shot.

Maybe from the strong Ballydoyle contingent, is the favourite; she lost her unbeaten tag in the 1000 Guineas although she was a staying-on third. Conditions will be different at Epsom as the ground will be much firmer, and possibly better to her liking.

Kailani from the Godolphin team has been supplemented and is the subject of bullish reports from her conditioner, Al Zarooni. Her dam is Kazzia who won the Guineas and Oaks double for the Blue team. Can she emulate her mother? Unbeaten in 2 races, she could still be missing a bit of seasoning and racecourse experience. If she does not fire on the day, she's still got the pedigree to make a very nice filly this year.

There are other promising contenders such as Kissed, The Fugue, Vow and Was in particular, who could snatch this on their best day. A really open race it is, but the experience and unexposed form of Maybe makes her a deserved favourite. She looks to be a good Place bet, and whether she'll get the necessary luck to beat all remains to be seen.

Staying at Epsom, the best chance of the day looks to be Worthadd in the Group 3 Diomed Stakes. The son of Dubawi won a Group 3 race in Germany a fortnight ago and provides the best form of the 6-horse race. He should be in the first 2 and is recommended as an each-way.


Each-way: Worthadd

Lousy Dettori ride

Pimpernel backers will rightly feel aggrieved after the shocking ride she was subjected to in the Oaks. Just finished watching the replay again and no matter what Al Zarooni has said about Pimpernel being "too keen early on", the ride from Frankie Dettori merits disgust. She wouldn't have won, but second place was there for the taking, had the Italian shown some vigor aboard. Where was the Dettori full of zest aboard Rewilding in lowering the colors of So You Think at Royal Ascot? Talk about being him being immobile on Pimpernel. If yesterday's race had been run in Hong Kong, the stewards would have sent Frankie on a long expensive holiday, no doubt.

Frankie's a great jockey but he came out with a shameful nugget in that race.

The week-end's EPL match-ups are coming up and you get the feeling that some managers out there are playing for their careers. I don't know who's feeling more pressure right now, Villa Boas or Wenger? Probably the Chelsea manager, as the Frenchman still has some "goodwill" left with the Arsenal board, although that is surely rapidly dwindling! Both teams will win nothing this year, I predict!

Chelsea host Bolton in what are 3 must-win points, or else AVB could be out after the final whistle. I think they'll win although nothing is certain with the club in crisis. Draw-no-bet looks good value at this point and is the recommendation.

Newcastle host Wolves who will be under a new manager. Usually the introduction of a new manager somewhat spurs the team in his first game in charge, but they are really up to a very good Newcastle team at St James Park. The Magpies will have had the time to reflect on their recent drubbing at Tottenham and it's hard to see them losing at home. I recommend the hosts as draw-no-bet as well.

Leaders Man City host Blackburn and this should be straightforward win for the hosts. They have got their players back from the African Nations Cup. More importantly, they have settled things with Tevez, who will be an important asset in the title run-in. Although the Argentinian will not be playing tomorrow, Man City should have ample ammunition to see of Blackburn.

To me, Spurs looks to have the upper hand against Arsenal in the London Derby. The Gunners will play at home but their form is so poor and their team beset by injuries and a lack of confidence, that this is a great opportunity for the high-flying Spurs to prolong their arch-rivals' misery. Besides Van Persie, Tottenham will field a team that is better than Arsenal's in every other position. Spurs look to be the best value punt of the week-end.

Win: Man City
Draw-no-bet: Chelsea, Newcastle, Tottenham

Meydan Week 7

Real Madrid was a kick away from winning in Moscow, but with the safety net of draw-no-bets, there cannot be too many complaints regarding the draw. A great escape route that was. The other selection to have them qualify looks comfortable and assured.

Thursday is Meydan day with the Oaks being the center of attention. This should go to one of Al Zarooni's fillies, there isn't much doubt about that. Pimpernel is the deserving favourite after her second place to Gamilati in the Guineas. Her run from a layoff and first-time on Tapeta was very promising and she beat all of Thursday's contenders on that day, except for Falls of Llora who did not run. She is bound to have improved and I cannot see her out of the first 2. Her main danger will be from stable-mate Falls of Lora who will be making her seasonal debut. The daughter of Street Cry will be suited by the trip and the only question marks are her fitness level after her layoff and whether she'll take to the synthetic surface. She will certainly improve for the run. I give a slight edge to Pimpernel, only because she's had a first run already but I wouldn't be surprised if Falls of Lora runs her close. I recommend Places as well as an exacta (any order) on both Godolphin fillies.

Place: Pimpernel, Falls of Lora

Exacta: Pimpernel/Falls of Lora

Meydan Week 5

Man Utd and Spurs both won their mid-week features, piling on the pressure on Man City who lost to Everton. Clearly the Citizens are missing some of their key players gone to the African Nations Cup and its impact cannot be underestimated. It's game on for these 3 teams.

Thursday sees another competitive night of Meydan racing in the Gulf. This is a meeting where the smaller players can bask in the sunlight as the big guns of Godolphin and Mike de Kock send a rather restricted number of troops for battle. The only race where I can see some certainty is the Listed 1000 Guineas at 12:10 which should go to Gamilati. The daughter of Bernardini will have the benefit of a run last month where she was an impressive going away winner. Word from Al Zarooni is that she has improved since then and so she should be hard to beat. Her main opponent might be her stable-mate Pimpernel whose UK form last year looks solid. This race will definitely go to the Godolphin team as there is no de Kock horse to oppose. I recommend Gamilati as a Win.

Win: Gamilati.

Meydan Week 2

It's the second week of the Carnival at Meydan and as expected the Thursday card looks very competitive. No question that the attraction of the night is the Group 3 Maktoum Challenge race which features possible starters for the Dubai World Cup; i.e., much of it will depend on how they fare in this race first.

My pick in this race is Musir; it's simple, if he's top fit and near his best, he will win the race.He's coming off a 130-day break, so he's bound to be ring-rusty, but he's done very well coming back from a layoff before. There are 3 horses that could potentially outsmart Mike de Kock's colt; Master of Hounds, the stable's second-string which is bound to have a new lease of life under the South African trainer, having joined from the Ballydoyle camp. I've written many times how horse careers get transformed when they go through that transition and Master of Hounds looks up to great things under the care of de Kock. I have a feeling the trainer will use this race to gauge MOH's actual abilities, with a potential tilt at the DWC race itself should he show enough class.

Xin Xu Lin is being touted by Godolphin this year and it will not surprise me if he makes the frame.This is a high-class South American champion that was rushed to race in Meydan last year, and seems in much better condition to race this year. Al Zarooni looks bullish on his prospects and that usually means that the horse is expected to deliver. He can be a top contender if the others are not fully wound-up.

Finally, Mendip has serious form on the Meydan race-track. I have reservations about him since he was well beaten by Musir before and I find it hard to see him reversing the roles. His near-300 day layoff in such a competitive race looks to put him at a disadvantage as well. His No 1 stall should have him well placed in the race as long as he does not get caught on the rails.

My recommendation is a Place on Musir. Coming from stall No 4 should put him in good stalking position. If his form shines through, he should be right at the finish.

For anyone wanting a match-bet punt, I would go for Musir over Mendip. I also believe either Xin Xu Lin or Master of Hounds (or both) will be in the first 3, so a couple Place on both could be rewarding as well.


Place: Musir

Meydan Carnival start

Tottenham edge past West Brom to keep pace atop the table. Harry Redknapp's men will definitely need to grind out such kinds of results if they hope to challenge the Manchester teams for the title.

Meydan racing starts on Thursday and Godolphin look to be taking matters very seriously this year. Both bin Suroor and Al Zaroori are loading up the gates. I am not sure about the overall strategy of the Blue team here. Starting their best horses so early in Dubai will obviously rule them out for the important late European races of the year. The global picture regarding the goals of the stable has been fuzzy for some time; global domination does not seem to be top of the agenda anymore.

The Thursday card looks very competitive and I look at Honour System to offer the best forecast of the night, in the second handicap race. The Godolphin outfit has won in a handicap race at Meydan last year and the race looks within his grasp. Dettori takes the ride and I put a Place recommendation on the King Best gelding.

Place: Honour System

Al Zarooni v/s Bin Suroor - a tale of 2 performances

Real Madrid are just running riot against overwhelmed Villareal, and unless the second half shows a change of cataclysmic proportions, this is going to be an easy good recommendation on the Los Blancos.

The general observation over the past years has been that many juveniles that showed great promise in grooming stables such as those of Mark Johnston and Andre Fabre, became flops when they joined the parent Godolphin operation. Many other potentially good 2-year olds that were outright acquired at a high price from other stables also did not do themselves justice once they joined the Dubai stable. Fingers were mainly pointed at trainer bin Suroor (BS) for not only failing to bring on the newcomers properly, but also for wrecking their careers as well.

This year, Sheikh Mo decided to go with 2 trainers and gave his confidence to Al Zarooni (AZ), who was attributed about half the stable and a load of new 2-year olds as well. The results so far are astonishing to say the least. I look at the trainer statistics on the Racing Post today and the numbers don't lie;

Mahmood Al Zarooni     78–389     20%     51     46     46     £1,455,771     £1,839,382     +131.61
Saeed Bin Suroor           48–343     14%     56     40     39     £418,305     £819,341     -112.66

Al Zarooni beats the bin Suroor in every single category. The story so far is that while AZ was winning prestigious Group 1's at Royal Ascot on high-class Rewilding, BS was tasting Group 1 glory in lesser-fancied places like Italy or Germany with old stalwarts like Campanologist! The likes of Blue Bunting and Rewilding that have carried the flag proud for Godolphin this year have all been under the care of AZ.

It is arguable that AZ's dominance can be attributed to the fact he was given the better crop of horses than bin Suroor this year. Only the insiders of the stable would know that for sure. But his better strike rate also demonstrates that he is more likely to get the horses spot-on when he readies them for a race, than his counter-part.

It is worth of note that Godolphin used to command a strong contingent running Stateside under the care of BS. This year, their incursions on that side of the point has been rather tepid relative to previous years. There is no doubt that bin Suroor's influence has diminished on that ground as well.

Whether these are the results of Godolphin politics or Sheihkh Mo's decisions, it will be interesting to see how all this folds out. The main interest for a punter is that when you look at a racing card, check the trainer first. In these current times, the odds are that an AZ-trained horse will give a better performance than a BS-trained one.

Real Payback

Pretty busy football week on the old continent.

In the Spanish games on Wednesday, it looks hard to see Real Madrid losing 2 games in a row. They are facing a Santander team struggling in the relegation area and it's a golden opportunity for them to bag the 3 points and renew their winning ways. I recommend them as a Win. Barcelona face a trickier game at Valencia, possibly the best team in La Liga besides the 2 powerhouses. If the Blaugrana can win this match, it will be a massive 3 points. This game can go any way, so no certainties there, although Barcelona will be massive favorites particularly with Lionel Messi finding his scoring touch again.

In racing, I like Genius Step in the first race at Goodwood. The Al Zarooni team is on fire currently and this Dubawi colt makes his return to competition after a 116-day layoff. His debut was highly encouraging after a staying-on third at Newmarket. He looks the class of the race and provided the ground isn't too soft at Goodwood and he is fit enough, he should be in the first 3. My racing Place recommendation for Wednesday.


Win: Real Madrid
Place: Genius Step

Godolphin in good form

It was a case of 2-3-4 with Fa'iz coming out 2nd, Lady Percy 3rd for a good Place and Special Boy finishing a disappointing 4th after having been hampered. All close results but in the end, no much of a difference on the balance sheet.

There are a few runners on Friday that caught my interest. Opinion Poll looks to have a good chance in the 14:25 Doncaster Cup. This son of Halling always seems to give his best and he's beaten a few of the same opponents on his last outing. Al Zarooni, the Godolphin trainer mentions that his horse should be in the thereabouts and this generally means he's confident of a good race. I see Opinion Poll in the first 3, so I recommend him as a Place.

It will be interesting to see how Inqadh, again from Godolphin, performs on his debut in the Wolverhampton 19:10. He's a son of Argentinian superstar Invasor, whose progenies have hit the board lately in England. He looks a promising sire. Inqadh's dam is Saywaan who was so impressive in winning the only race she ran. Inqadh looks to be the stable's second string as Ajtebi has chosen Echo of Dream. Obviously, there's nothing certain whenever new debutants are concerned, but for those looking for a potentially rewarding outcome with some risk, Inqadh could be one to look at. Certainly the best of the lot on pedigree.

Place: Opinion Poll