End of Reigns

The news have broken that Blatter is out of FIFA after an overdue 17-year reign. It seems another cycle is about to end in a few hours; Rafa Nadal, the master of Roland Garros is gunning for his 10th crown in 11 years but has the irrepressible Novak Djokovic on his way at the quarter-final stage today.

The stats are amazing. Nadal has only been beaten once in the past 10 years at the French Open. On his best day, no-one can beat him on the surface. The problem this year is that he's not at his peak. He was out of the game for most of last year and rushed his preparations to be ready to defend his French Open crown. While he is getting better with every match, the encounter with Djokovic comes a little too soon for him. The Serb is currently the world's best player. Mentally, he is on another level to anyone. He's beaten Nadal on clay during the preparatory tournaments leading to Roland Garros. He knows what it takes to beat the French master on the surface, now he needs to do it where it counts most. Time plays for him as he's in the best form of his life while Nadal is just getting back his reflexes. It's now or never for the Serb to crack open Nadal's reign and make his way to winning the only Grand Slam tournament missing from his resume.

In a few hours, cometh another end of reign. Djokovic to win the match, and eventually the tournament.

Win against Nadal: Djokovic
Win tournament: Djokovic

Loaded week-end

Off to a promising start in the Euros with the Greeks and Polish drawing. In tennis, Nadal and Djokovic also won as expected, setting up a final that promises to be a spectacle for the ages.

A fully-loaded week-end it looks to be. Here are my views on the week-end matches.

Netherlands v/s Denmark. It's hard to go against the Dutch here although Denmark will certainly give them all they can handle. But in this Group of Death, Holland need to ensure they get the full 3 points as their remaining games are against Germany and Portugal. A draw-no-bet for the Dutch here looks safe.

Germany v/s Portugal. Portugal's performance in these Euros depend on their main man, Christiano Ronaldo. If he has a good tournament, so will the national team. Germany will be their solid selves and it's hard not to see them go through. I see Germany as a good draw-no-bet as well.

Spain v/s Italy. The Italians are struggling right now and they don't look anywhere as good as their predecessors. That said, they should never be discounted because they almost always rise up on the big occasions. Spain is the best team in the tournament, but that doesn't necessarily mean they'll be winners at the end. They shouldn't be beaten by this Italian team though, and are taken as a safe draw-no-bet as well.

Ireland v/s Croatia. I think the Irish could be the surprise package of this group and of the Euros in general. I like the work of Trappatoni and he's got the experience in these kinds of tournaments. Croatia are capable of the best and worst, and they now have a really good striker in Everton's Jelavic. I still like Ireland's chances here, and they look to be the best value draw-no-bet of the week-end.

Back to Roland Garros where the best 2 players will square off in Sunday's final. Will it be Djokovic's first or Nadal's seventh? I think the Spaniard looks as good as ever, and will be all too aware that if he can't beat the Serb here, he won't beat him anywhere else. The French Open is his territory and he will be pumped up for it. Djokovic is the best among the rest on the surface and can give the Spaniard a real game, but at the end, it should be business as usual for Nadal. He is recommended to win it all.

Saturday's woman final between little-known Italian Errani and Sharapova. This is a fantastic opportunity for the Russian to win her first French Open and hence complete the career Grand Slam. She should be able to do it and is selected to win as well.

Finally, news just eked out that I'll Have Another will not compete in Saturday's Belmont Stakes, hence killing off any hopes of a Triple Crown winner. That clears the way for either Union Rags or Dullahan to win it. Union Rags as a Place looks safe and is the recommendation. For long punters, Street Life as a Place could also be the way to go because this horse will finish the best of them all.

Win: Nadal, Sharapova

Draw-no-bet: Netherlands, Germany, Spain, Ireland.

Place: Union Rags

Highlights all over

5 out of 7 selections obliged with Igugu, Milan, Palermo, Real and Lyon all winning, but Inter and Barcelona disappointing against lowly opposition. The week-end was not short of highlights in many departments.

In La Liga, it is almost done deal for Real who have shot 7 points clear at the top. They look a certainty to win the title and only a cataclysmic occurrence (like Mourinho quitting before the season end) will stop them. It is looking sweet right now, having recommended piling on them a couple of months ago.

In tennis, what else to say about Djokovic beating Nadal yet again in a Major final? He's got his sights on Roland Garros already and Nadal has a few weeks to figure out how to stop the Serbian machine. After all, Paris is the Spaniard's hunting ground and it will be interesting to see if Nole has the ammunition to topple him on his favourite surface. We'll get there in due time.

In golf, Tiger let go of the win in the final round in Abu Dhabi to an English journeyman golfer. It used to be that Tiger would always make the difference in the last round if leading after 3 rounds, but his defeat shows that he's not quite at his best level yet. Still a third place finish looks honorable as he continues his comeback assault.

In racing, the Kenilworth meeting in South Africa was a treat to watch. What a beautiful mover Jackson, the winner of the Cape Investec Derby, is. Definitely one to watch in future middle-distance races. Ebony Flyer, who I have been gloating about in these pages but who flopped badly in the Queen's Plate, redeemed herself and won the Group 1 mile race on the card. But the star of the evening was Igugu, no doubt. She produced a jaw-dropping finishing kick to win when all observers had her beaten. Super Igugu, she would beat any filly on this planet from 10-12 furlongs, in my opinion.

Tuesday sees a rare Premier League fixture and I see Man Utd and Tottenham keeping the pressure on leaders Man City. They should dispatch Stoke and Wigan respectively at home; a Win on Man Utd is recommended, while a conservative draw-no-bet on Spurs looks safer than an outright win (there's always the disruptive effects of manager Redknapp's off-field issues on the functioning of the team).

Win: Man Utd

Draw-no-bet: Tottenham

Honour Roll 2011

Looking back at 2011 in which human or equine athletes made their marks; as usual, some disappointed, others confirmed on their promises, while a few others surpassed all expectations of them. These are my 3 stars of 2011 in sports.

Frankel - the Galileo colt, regarded on every handicap scale, as the best horse of  2011, went unbeaten in 5 races. His greatness was confirmed by the manner of his win in the 2000 Guineas where he literally hammered the race in a visually-awesome catch-me-if-you-can style. He went on to dispose of the then king-miler Canford Cliffs in convincing fashion. Described as the best ever by none other than his trainer, Henry Cecil, Frankel will remain in training as a 4-year old, to the obvious delight of racing fans. I rate him as the best miler to have ever raced on turf and can't wait for him to show he's the best ever at 10 furlongs this year. His sire being Galileo, I don't foresee him having any problems at the distance. Should he still be dominant, I would love to see him have a crack at either the Arc or the Breeders Cup Classic on dirt; more something of hope than confidence, as I am not so sure that is the planned plot by connections.

Black Caviar - the Australian superstar mare, quite simply the greatest sprinter in the world today, went 8 for 8 in 2011. Lifetime, she's undefeated in a staggering 16 races. I just cannot wait for her to step on European shores, particularly at Ascot, to show her greatness. No sprinter in Australia comes close to her; as a matter of fact, they try to avoid her. Since the horses Down Under have been dominating the Ascot sprint races for years, one can only imagine the effect she will have coming here. Ascot might never have seen the likes of it ever before; she will bring down the roof!

Novak Djokovic - my athlete of the year. Such displays of dominance in an unforgettable season where he notched 3 Grand Slam tournaments with a 70-6 record. The undisputed No1 in the world today as he looks to have locked mastery over Federer and Nadal. I thought Nadal was showing that he was THE one to follow, but the Serb has turned up the notch ever higher and crushed Nadal every time they met. His dominance has been surprising to say the least, but it certainly looks set to continue in 2012 if he stays healthy. Rafael Nadal has a big mental hurdle to overcome if he's to usurp Djokovic this year.

Champions League start

Djokovic is just a monster. I cannot think of a more dominant athlete in a sport today than Nole. Arguably his 3 slam victories this year typifies an even greater domination than Tiger's 3 slams a few years back since he's only lost 2 matches the whole year! It's back to the drawing board for Rafa. Nole owns him right now.

Today is the start of a new Champions League season, which seems to grow in bounds of significance from year to year. It seems every player's dream every year is not to win the domestic title but to win the European Cup. Today's matches look to be very close and there could be a flurry of drawn matches. I don't think Barcelona is assured of a win against visiting Milan since it's still got a depleted defence which the Italians could exploit; a draw-no-bet on the Blaugrana looks the safer option and is recommended. Arsenal and Chelsea will have difficult nights against German opponents Dortmund and Leverkusen respectively and those matches can go either way in my opinion. Draw purists will love tonight's fixtures.

Draw-no-bet: Barcelona.

The buck stops here

Been on the move to a newer house and now getting all the online connection back. About time.

My last recommendation, Carlton House, came out 4th, out of the placings in the Irish Derby. My feeling is that he has shown that he's not a pure stayer and needed more time off to recuperate from his last race at Epsom. He will be better suited by the distances of the Champion Stakes races.

Nothing much extra-interesting in the world of sports besides Wimbledon. Frenchman Tsonga played spoilers by downing slumping Federer for the final 4 spot. Djokovic, Nadal and Murray are still in the hunt. I think the buck stops here for Tsonga in his semi-final against Djokovic. I actually think the the Serb is under-value at the exchanges and I see no problem recommending him to win and book his final spot.


Win: Djokovic

Murray on the up

A rather quiet week, with the football winding down with the Euro qualifiers and the racing world gearing up for Royal Ascot. In tennis, the Queen's tournament has started in preparation for Wimbledon. I like Andy Murray's chances against Frenchman Xavier Malisse. Murray did pretty well in the French Open before losing to Nadal in the semi-finals. He's still nursing an injury from that tournament but that should not deter him from winning his opening match on a surface that seems to suit his game best. I recommend him as a safe Win on Wednesday.

Win: Murray

All about France

If only Novak.... 5 good recommendations out of 6, with only Novak Djokovic losing to Roger Federer. The Serb had his chances to tie it at 2-2, but just could not take his chances. To be fair, Federer had a lot of break chances as well, and the match was decided on a few points. Nadal dismissed Murray in 3 easy sets, Antara won and Wonder of Wonders, Midday and Tortoni were all placed.

As for the French Open final on Sunday, I still cannot see Federer beating Nadal. The Swiss can still have a few tennis Majors in him before he retires, but beating Nadal on clay is a tough ask. I recommend Nadal to be crowned French Open champion for the sixth time on Sunday.

The Derby gets run tomorrow and Carlton House will finally be able to take part having overcome his setback earlier this week. There is obviously a strong popular support for the Queen's horse to win. I don't think he will however. In my opinion, his best distance is at 10 furlongs, and I believe he will lack the stamina to get the full 12 furlongs of Epsom. I mentioned it before and I maintain my pick for the race; Pour Moi, the French raider from the Andre Fabre stable. He's by the sire that produces the best 12 furlong horses in the world in Montjeu, and the French champion trainer seems to have him in top condition for the race. I think he will definitely be in the first 3 and I recommend him as a safe Place. I give him a strong win chance as well for those that fancy an outright win punt.

Recital, another Montjeu colt, could be his main challenger. The distance will suit and he looks to be ridden by Kieran Fallon if the absurdity of Native Khan's connections are thrown out in court. This is quite an unbelievable story going on off the race-tracks, with Native's Khan's owners trying to stop Fallon from riding Recital. No matter what kind of verbal promises could have been made and broken previously in the rundown to this race, this reach to the courts is unsporting and should not be condoned in racing.


Win: Nadal
Place: Pour Moi

Ladies Day

Rafael Nadal dismissed Soderling in 3 straight sets but Zarabajad came out 2nd after a very suspect ride from Johnny Murtagh. I think the Aga Khan jockey is the best in the business in Ireland but he did not seem to have his customary zest at the finish.

Talking tennis, I can't see past a Djokovic/Nadal final (again) in the French Open. Nadal should be too much to handle for Murray, and Djokovic certainly has the mental edge on the aging Federer. So I recommend Nadal and Djokovic to win their semi-final matches on Friday.

Friday is Oaks day in racing and there are 3 fillies/mares that I will be following closely. In the first race, I like Antara who makes her seasonal return for Godolphin. She clearly is the classiest of the bunch and the only question mark is her current fitness. Bin Suroor mentions that she will improve for the run, which indicates that she will not be at her peak. She won this race last year on her seasonal return as well, so the track and long layoff should not be of concern.  I recommend her as a Place prospect and see Timepiece from the Henry Cecil yard as her main opponent.

The Coronation Cup seems to be a 2 horse race between St Nicholas Abbey (SNA) and Midday. Dandino should be a close third if one of the two mentioned fails to fire. It's hard to forge a clear opinion on how good is SNA. If he runs to the potential that he showed as a 2-year old and confirms his win at Chester 28 days ago, he will be hard to beat. This race will see confirmation of whether he is a serious horse, one that "could walk on water" according to his trainer Aidan O'Brien. Midday is the more reliable to side with and is almost always in the frame. She gets my vote as a Place recommendation.

The Oaks race is very open in my opinion. I am not a huge fan of Blue Bunting although she surprised me considerably (and many others) by winning the 1000 Guineas. On pedigree she should have just enough stamina for the 12 furlongs being by Dynaformer and a middle-distance mare. She has never raced over 8 furlongs though, and with the speed she's shown in the Guineas, 10 furlongs might be a more suitable distance for her. I like Wonder of Wonders in this race. She has raced and won at the distance, and she's got that fantastic pedigree being out of All Too Beautiful, daughter of super mare Urban Sea. I see her being involved at the finish and I recommend her as a Place.

At Doncaster, I like Tortoni in the first race. The son of Teofilo has been placed in his first 2 races and I see him being in the frame again. Whether he actually wins depends on how good is Campanology from the Richard Hannon stable who have interestingly booked Johnny Murtagh for the ride. Tortoni is recommended as a Place.


Win: Nadal, Djokovic.
Place: Antara, Midday, Wonder of Wonders, Tortoni.

The King will find a way

Right To Dream came second for a a winning Place recommendation. The Brian Meehan colt was always prominent in the running and a Place spot was never really into doubt.

Tipperary sees the return of Zabarajad on Wednesday, 11 days after its disappointing run in the Irish 2000 Guineas. Provided he's recovered from this exertions in the Classic race, he should take all the beating in this drop in class. John Oxx has a great hand in putting his horses in the right races, and I can see his Invincible Spirit horse break his maiden in the 18:30 race. Zabarajad is recommended as a Win.

In tennis, Rafael Nadal locks horns with Soderling for a place in the semi-finals. The clay king has shown erratic form since the start of the tournament and many wouldn't be surprised if the Swede can capitalize on any misfiring from the Spaniard. Still, I think Nadal will find a way to win this match in the end and looks good value at his current odds. I recommend him to beat Soderling.

Win: Zabarajad, Nadal

Musings from the week-end

Apologies for the time off updating the blog. It all started with the Blogger web sites problems, which seemed to take forever to be fixed, and which prevented me from giving the week-ends predictions.

Going back to my last predictions last Wednesday, they were all bang on. Noble Graduate and Last Crusade were the exacta I mentioned. Midday won on her return and Lyric Street won his weak race as well. West Ham have been relegated at the week-end and I just couldn`t see it otherwise given their poor away form all season.

Doing some round-up in what I thought were the major headlines this past week-end in the world of sports that I select to follow. Nothing much new to add in football with Man Utd and Barcelona claiming the spoils as expected. Man City won the FA Cup but I join the chorus of disapprovals regarding this game being played on a usual Saturday game day. If the FA Cup has lost its past lustre, it`s not because Man Utd opted out of it one year a decade back to play the World Club Championship in Brazil. It`s not because it was played in Cardiff for a few years while the old Wembley was being restored. It`s because of things like this where the recognition of the Final being traditionally played on the Saturday following the season end, is lost among a day of Saturday fixtures. Typically, the worst nightmare scenario for the FA ominously occured right this year when Man City`s Cup triumph coincided with Man Utd`s clinching of the Premier League title. While the City of Manchester had every reason to be in cheers, two of the biggest headlines in English football had to be shared into one.

The thing with the FA Cup is that its magic transcends British shores. Ask a French football fan about The Cup and he won`t be talking about La Coupe de France. Nor will a Spanish be talking of Copa del Rey. The Cup, as they know it, is the FA Cup. And sadly its significance is being lost by the very people that were tasked to restore it to its previous glory.

I am being amazed by what is unfolding in tennis. If someone had told me at the start of the year that Nadal would be playing some of his best tennis and still lose 4 finals in a row to Djokovic, I would have been laying all day and night. I`m glad for my pocket that I never got that chance. Djokovic has been playing unbelievable tennis for the last while, and nothing from the past could have suggested he would be that dominant against his peers in that way. From a punting point of view, he now seems value every time he meets a Top 5 opponent, since that`s about the only time his odds are not around 1.01, and he seems he`ll still find the way to win. The Serb is the most improved athlete I can think of om years. He was good, but nowhere near that kind of good.

In racing, Canford Cliffs confirmed all the positive vibes surrounding him by dominating the Lockinge. I`m like the rest of racing fans and awaiting a Frankel, Goldikova, Cliffs showdown. I just hope that the mare is still at her best, and if she can put the young male pretenders to their place, then so be it.

Last word in golf where Tiger is making headlines for the wrong reasons by pulling out of the Player`s Championship due to injury. Suddenly, everyone is questioning whether his quest for beating Jack Nicklaus` Major record is still possible. In my opinion, it`s probably too early to have any kind of judgement regarding his abilities or record quest. The gap between him and the rest has certainly narrowed a considerable bit, and the young guns like Mc Ilroy won`t be feeling the inferiority complex that the rest of the field have. It`s game on for Tiger and he needs a big win at a Major this year to get a good part of his aura back. US Open may be? we`ll see.

A breach in Barcelona's armour

A football festival as I tried to juggle the 2 fascinating matches yesterday; Tottenham v/s Arsenal and Barcelona v/s Madrid. The London derby ended in a 3-3 stalemate with goals aplenty as I was mentioning it would yesterday. A really thrilling match and the Gunners will rue throwing away another 2-goal lead. During the first half of the season, it looked like Man Utd was the one giving away points, but the way the Gunners have been surpassing them in this category, is just mind-boggling. Chelsea won, and they seem to have taken the mantle of being Man Utd's main opponents for the title. With 6 points to overcome, their mini-resurgence will prove a little too late, I believe.

In the Copa del Rey, Mourinho did it to the Catalans again! Switching between those 2 games clearly shows the difference between the English and Spanish leagues. While the game at White Hart Lane was an enthralling end-to-end affair that gave football fans something to cheer about, the Spanish final was a poor sight of constant bickering from players of both teams to the referee. If referees in the Premier League think they are under lots of pressure, then they should check this match to see the kind of pressure their Spanish counterparts are subject to. A shameful advertisement from the 2 supposedly best teams in the world. Maybe the stakes couldn't have been higher between  the fiercest rivals of all. But poor spectacle indeed. In the end, Real Madrid won the spoils in extra-time; Mourinho is really a Cup final magician and I wonder if yesterday was the start of the downfall of  Barcelona. Remains to be seen, but the Champions League clashes between the 2 teams will be explosive. There is so much bad blood between those teams that it probably won't be a football spectacle; I can see a flourish of yellow/red cards being handed already.

I mentioned the ramifications from the Masters that Tiger Woods was close to be back at his best. Tennis superstar Rafael Nadal seems to be in dominant form again, particularly on his favorite clay surface. He just won his last tournament as expected, and I reckon he'll do so again at the Barcelona Open on clay this week-end. He looks a safe recommendation to win the tournament again.

Win: Rafael Nadal

Great horses of a lifetime...

Both of Thursday predictions won. Milan easily won against Bari and advanced to the next stage of the Coppa Italia and at Meydan, River Jetez was placed 3rd in her race.

The South African filly was very unlucky not to actually win her race as she was short of room at the rails. It reminded me very much a race at Meydan last year with Japanese champion Vodka also being stuck on the inside rails in a race she should have won. Anyway, River Jetez is certainly one to follow as the Carnival progresses. Also to follow is Godolphin's Simon de Montfort who won his race quite handily under Kieren Fallon; as I was writing in my previous post, this is a very classy colt and he does not seem to have lost any of his turn of foot. Godolphin and Mike de Kock are dominating proceedings as I mentioned they would, which is hopefully a good omen for my recommendations as long as I can pick their right horses.

I can't see anything of punting value for Friday. Japan is playing hosts Qatar in the Asian Cup in what should be an interesting match. The Australian Open is in full swing, and in my opinion, Nadal will at least reach the final. No punting or recommendations on this though as I haven't spent time assessing the main candidates to the trophy. I would think it will be between Nadal, Fed and Murray, but that's quite stating the obvious. No, I'm just bracing myself for this week-end's football and racing; in the meantime I'll finally go watch Secretariat the movie. I don't know much about the great horse besides it winning the Triple Crown and winning the Belmont by oh-so-many lengths, that seemed to have made its legend. Ahh, champion thoroughbreds... If I can leave the reality of punting a little bit, and fancy a 12-furlong race on a non-biased synthetic surface (say Meydan)...The Americans would bring Secretariat and Zenyatta, the British would come with Sea The Stars and Dancing Brave, the French with Zarkava and Peintre Celebre, the Japanese with Deep Impact, the South Americans with Invasor, the South Africans with Horse Chestnut and Pocket Power, the Australasians with So You Think and Makybe Diva, and the mighty Ribot would come for the Italians ... A wonder race for the ages... My trifecta would be... Sea The Stars, Deep Impact and Zarkava! and I am sure my selection will not be unanimous among other racing fans.

Ok, I'm off go to watch the movie about the great Secretariat...

Winning week-end and Tiger talk.

3 more winners this week-end, with Barcelona, Madrid and PSV winning their games as predicted, and the Chelsea drawn game ending in a voided bet. It was a close call on that last one, and I've got to say Thanks to Phil Neville for his blunder in Chelsea's goal. Without it, Everton might well have taken all the spoils there! I'll take those lucky bounces anytime as I know that I'll be at the wrong end of it at other times.

Anyway, what I take out of this week-end is not horse racing or football news, but rather in golf. Tiger lost again, and for the first time, he was not even able to hold on to a 4-shot lead. But even in defeat, it's the first time since his scandalous stories have surfaced, that he's shown that he's about to get his mojo back. And that is Great news for punters. You see, Tiger at his best, is the most dominant athlete in any sport, and backing him at the right time in the right tournaments (think Majors) pays dividends. So this bodes well for next year when I'm expecting him to have his mind cleared, refreshed and focused on golf (and not the "other" things). Like I was mentioning before with Nadal (also Federer if he's really back) and tennis, Tiger and golf present unique opportunities during Major tournaments in particular. So they are to be followed.

This week is dominated by the last round of Champions League football, so will try to find out some sure fire bets there. And hopefully synthetic racing keeps going despite the inclement weather. And despite Lingfield being cancelled the other day, that's why they are supposedly called all-weather right?

Have a good week!

Perfect week-end results, and awaiting the Super Classico.

A thoroughly enjoyable and rewarding week-end with all recommendations winning. In football, Dortmund, Man Utd, Bayern Munich and Mallorca all won, and in tennis Nadal reached the final of the World Finals. Everything was spot on.

So today's the day the football world has been waiting for; the "Super Classico" between Barca and Madrid. On paper, it promises to be a spectacular celebration of football. So many times however, as in any other sport, the expectations are too high to be met, and such anticipated games often produce a typically tepid tactical affair because of the excessive caution play of the two teams. With Mourinho at the helm of the underdog Madrid, you can be quite sure that his team will try not to lose first. After all, coming back from the Nou Camp with one point will be good cause for celebration in the Madrid camp. Anyway, let's hope the match does not prove as confined as I fear, and we can sit back and enjoy the world's current finest at play. Obviously, this game is too close for me to speculate on the result, but probably Barca holds an edge because they are close to being their old dominating self. They will not find better motivation that to play against both arch-rivals Madrid and Mourinho. For the statistic-aware, Mourinho hasn't won in the Nou Camp in stints with Chelsea or Inter. May the best team on the day win.

Barcelona walk-in-the-park, and a Tennis word.

I just witnessed Barcelona give a real thrashing to Panathinaikos, and I don't think that it could have been a  nicer stroll for them. I've very rarely seen players play with such ease together and toying disdainfully with the opposition at this level. But against Madrid next Monday it's going to be an entirely different matter... I can't wait! Anyway, Barca's win was good for my strike rate.

Ok something novel here, I am going to put on my Tennis hat! Yeah, football and horse racing are what I really follow for giving sure recommendations, but I'm always on the look-out for whatever value I can see in other sports. And I think I have one screaming in tennis! Nadal to Reach-the-Final of the World Tour Finals. To me, when he's on top form, Nadal is un-beatable whichever the surface. And he seems to be in really good form after the first 2 matches (I always gauge how well he's doing in a tournament after a few matches). To me, he'll probably win the whole thing; but I'm looking for 'certainties' and for him to reach the final definitely removes all the risks related to playing a final; so I recommend on the Spaniard to at least reach the final.

Don't expect frequent tennis advice from me though; I only follow the big 4 (Nadal, Fed, Murray & Djokovic) in the 4 Majors because that's when I think they play best and are above the rest. Hence, the value in following them then.

Reach-the-final: Nadal.