Shades of Ipi Tombe

When I look at the race card for the Dubai Duty Free at Meydan on Saturday, I can't help thinking about Ipi Tombe, possibly its greatest winner. This is the mare that put Mike de Kock on the international map by winning this Group 1 race in 2003. In my opinion, the winner on Saturday will come out of the trio of mares that are entered in that race; River Jetez, Raihana, and Strawberrydaiquiri. Sorry colts, it seems to me the mares are stronger.

River Jetez has acclimatized well in Dubai and has 2 strong runs behind her. She should have won both of the races and it's well documented how she was unlucky in her first race. Her second race was impressive, and she showed a turn of foot (like brother Pocket Power) in the straight to win quite comfortably. She always gives the impression that she does her best. The only question mark for me is her jockey Faydherbe, who is her regular rider in South Africa, but who does not seem to have much experience at the Meydan track. If he does not get the mare caught into traffic, she has a major chance.

Raihana thrives in Dubai and also always gives a honest account of herself. The distance will suit her and because she's always in the whereabouts at the finish line, it's hard to overlook her. She definitely has Place claims and with luck in running, might win the race altogether.

Strawberrydaiquiri is for me, the dark horse of the race. On her Meydan debut, she was squeezed and checked twice in the straight and still finished 5th behind River Jetez. Without her traffic problems, she would have been much closer than the 4.5 lengths that separated the two. The experience of Johhny Murtagh will help and I think she's overly over-priced and can easily cause a shock.

What about the colts, you say? While Mendip is a proven Carnival winner on Tapeta, he's untried and unproven on turf. He's by Harlan Holiday, so I would not get too over excited about him running on turf. If he acts on it, then he can play a role, but that is too much speculation. Wigmore Hall is a good horse but the distance is on the short side for him. Presvis and Ryan Moore form a formidable duo and can take the spoils if they don't meet traffic as they usually do.

At this point, I really see the mares playing major roles in this one, and I'll wait for the trainers' comments until Friday to have an idea on their form and condition etc, and make a final decision on the recommendations.

Week-end football preview

We are on a roll!! Raihana and Golden Sword won and Musir came out second, all paid with Place bets. The de Kocks are on fire, and rewards beckon as long as their right horses are picked. This week-end is full of interesting matches and here are my picks:

As I am writing this, the derby match in Manchester is already under way with the score in favour of the hosts from a Nani goal as we near half-time. It's too close to call this game but if City were to win, it will turn the league upside down. We are not there yet, and it's currently advantage Man Utd. I like Liverpool and Arsenal chances as they play at home. Liverpool are playing with renewed confidence lately and should see off Wigan at Anfield if they can continue their rich vein of form. Arsenal host Wolves; Mc Carthy's men are no push-overs when they are on the road as they play disciplined, counter-attacking football. They will have some spring in their boots having beaten Man Utd last week. But Arsenal are loaded with firepower, and I think they will either draw or win this game. So Liverpool and Arsenal are recommended as draw-no-bets in the Premier League.

In La Liga, I like Barcelona as a Win at Sporting Gijon. Unless the international friendlies took a toll on the Barcelona players, they should be able to edge this. So I like them as Win. Real Madrid travel to Espanol in a tricky encounter. Espanol are a tough team to beat at home, but they are missing players through injury for this one. I recommend Real Madrid as draw-no-bet.

In Germany, I recommend Bayern Munich as a draw-no-bet at home against Hoffenheim. With the return of Robben, Bayern should be able to win this, but because Hoffenheim seem masters of draw matches, a draw outcome is not that far-fetched.

In France, I like PSG's chances at home against third-from-bottom Lens. The capital team will try to get back on track after their defeat at third-place Rennes last week, and playing a struggling Lens at home seems the best remedy possible. I recommend them as Win.

 

Win: Barcelona, PSG

Draw-no-bet: Liverpool, Arsenal, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich

Mike de Kock in force

I was mentioning that a Place bet on Monster Crunchie at better than odds-on, would be worth it for punters looking for a bet. The Deep Impact filly came out third and was available at around 3/2 Place last time I checked, so hopefully there were some of you that latched onto it. I could not outright recommend her as a new-comer, but it gives me confidence that my analysis was correct. I tell you, these Deep Impacts are worth watching, just like the Sea the Stars progenies will be in a few years time.

To continue on the racing streak, tomorrow is Meydan day. At the risk of being repetitive, it seems to be another fruitful meeting for the de Kock stable. It will just be a matter of picking the right horses for the stable. "Musir is flying and should go close" according to the trainer. These kinds of bullish comments often mean the expectation is very high. I was not surprised when Mike said that Bold Silvano was his best ever World Cup hope after the devastating win by the son of Silvano last week. But I was a little surprise he did not say that both Bold Silvano and Musir were his best hopes. Anyway, Musir is a classy horse who's only disadvantage on Thursday will be to get rid of cobwebs after a 325-day absence. I recommend him as a Place bet.

Out of other de Kock runners, I like classy filly Raihana to also Place. It will be interesting how she measures with Godolphin's Kingsfort, who I rate very highly. I also like Zanzamar; my only concern is that Richard Hills has a tendency to mess up on short favourites, in my opinion and experience. Golden Sword had a great last race which seems to show that he was back to his best, so is recommended as a Place in a race that seems winnable.

Place: Musir, Raihana, Golden Sword