Arc 2022 - Japan at long last ?

ParisLongchamp hosts the greatest Flat race of the year on Sunday. There is nothing that comes close in terms of prestige and there is no doubt that its reputation would have been further enhanced if it could do without the deluge of rain that bestows upon the racetrack at this time of the year. Let's face it; countless champions have failed to act on the heavy ground and many have opted to bypass it altogether based solely on the underfoot conditions. It is what it is, the Arc is the most coveted of them all, particularly to the Japanese, who I believe, have a monstrous chance this year.

Ah... memories of Deep Impact, the greatest of all the Japanese thoroughbreds. How mismanaged he was, leading the pack, when he was the best closing finisher of them all. And he failed the drug test, pure incompetence from the trainer! And Orfevre, the mad genius, the most talented of them all. He was coasting 100 yards from the finish, you could have bet your life Japan had finally hit its holy grail. And the inevitable happened, and Japanese hearts had never been so broken. 

But the Japanese thoroughbred has arrived. Delta Blues and Pop Rock for a 1-2 in the Melbourne Cup. So many Japanese wins at the Dubai Carnival: Victoire Pisa, Heart's Cry, Almond Eye, Just a Way and recently Shahryar to name a few. Deidre winning the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood. And finally they conquered America with Loves Only You and Marche Lorraine last year.

The only bastion left is the Arc. So many seconds in there and this year could be the one when they make the long-awaited breach. They will be a 4-strong contingent: Titleholder, Deep Bond, Do Deuce and Stay Foolish. None of them is on a par with Deep Impact or Orfevre, but they might not have to be. Deep Bond probably does not belong but the other 3 can have their say.

Do Deuce is the 3-year old Japan Derby winner. He was somewhat disappointing in his prep race, the Prix Niel, finishing only 4th, but that was his first race after a layoff and should be in a better disposition with the cobwebs removed. Definitely has an outside chance.

Stay Foolish was mighty impressive winning in Riyadh and Meydan at the start of the year. He definitely has the experience for those big races. He is definitely suited for a bigger distance than a mile and a half but if it is a stamina-sapping contest, he might vie for the the places.

Then we have Titleholder, who I believe, could be The One. Like Stay Foolish and Deep Bond, this is a stayer with an abundance of stamina and winner of the Japanese St Leger. But this middle-class performer has a lot of class, matched with speed enough to win a top-class mile and a half race. He usually figures prominently or takes control of his races, submits his opponents to the ground by leading the line with blistering speed. It is almost obvious that he will take a serious option for the lead on Sunday and if he is 5 lengths clear entering the straight, it could be Sayonara baby time for Japan! This horse has the potential of setting fractions enough to demoralize the likes of an unproven-at-the-distance star like Vadeni!

Out of the rest of the pack, I will note the following 3 as the main contenders to Titleholder: Torquator Tasso, Alpinista and Luxembourg. Tasso is the reigning champion, the one who shocked the world last year by beating a strong field that included Tarnawa and Hurricane Lane. It was no fluke, Tasso was the best on the day, winning while having to cover a lot of ground on the outside. But the heavy footing was his best ally. If the conditions are similar this Sunday, Tasso has a major chance. And it doesn't hurt to have Dettori as rider. I think Tasso can and will run huge.

Alpinista has won 7 races on the trot and relishes the distance. She's beaten Tasso before and will get the advantageous 3 pounds allowance as a mare. If she continues on her fantastic form, she can be a proper danger to the males. Based on her record, she cannot be under-estimated.

Finally, Luxembourg, the favourite. Mighty impressive although beaten in the 2000 Guineas, he was struck with a big layoff due to injury. He's come back great, winning a Group 3 in a rather hard-fought manner and then the Irish Champion Stakes where he finally showcased all the good that connections throught of him. Being a Camelot, there is no doubt he will find the distance right up his alley. His profile going into the race looks very good. I think he will be in the whereabouts at the finish but it could be there are one or two that show better class on the day. 

Imagine the scene; Titleholder leading El Condor Pasa-style entering the mythical ParisLongchamp straight, and showing no signs of letting up. Roared on by the Japanese crowd in the stands, spurred by thousands in front of their tvs in the wee-hours of the morning, Jap time. Could there be a better climax to a race when he flashes past the post, champion-style? The expectation of a nation finally met. Their dream come true. The Holy Grail attained. Could Sunday be that day?

Win: Titleholder

King George - Emily Upjohn tackles the boys

Although there will be some markee absentees, this year's King George reunites a top-class field of proven middle-distance performers. While Westover is the deserved favourite, the form looks very even and it will be no surprise if there is a hotly-disputed finish in the end. Here is my take on the field.

Broome - Surprised me when he landed the Group 2 Hardwick Stakes during Royal Ascot. Clearly, tactics played a big part in that race. He is one of those horses that is good enough to win an average Group 1 but not quite good enough to win a top one, which is the case on Saturday. Discard.

Mishriff - Second to Adayar in this contest last year. On his best day, can mix it up with anyone and he looked unlucky when a neck second in the Coral-Eclipse. Gets a new jockey in James Doyle and it will be interesting to see how the new pair gets along. He should be at the finish.

Pyledriver - Isn't quite up the level of some of the more prominent ones in this race but on his best day can aspire to a Top 3. Quite unlikely though.

Torquator Tasso - Shocking winner of the Arc last year. If he reproduces the form of that race, he should be head and shoulders above the field. But it looks more likely that his best form is on softer underfoot conditions and better suited for October racing. Has to be respected as an Arc winner but this race will go a long way confirming whether he was a fluke in the Arc or an actual force.

Westover - dominant winner of the Irish Derby and unlucky third in the Epsom Derby. He would not have won at Epsom but would have gone closer to the winner without the traffic problems. Clearly he is a colt on the upside and will benefit from the 3-year old allowance against the elders. The opposition is a far cry from what he encountered at the Curragh and he will have to show he can duke it out when challenged. 

Emily Upjohn - Unlucky to have lost her unbeaten tag in the Oaks. She is without much doubt the best middle-distance filly of the Classic division. She might become ever better with time and it will be interesting to see if she is ready to duke it out with the males at this stage. The weight allowance might give her the decisive advantage from the rest.

I will pick Mishriff, Westover and Emily Upjohn as a trifecta from this bunch. It should be a hotly contested affair between the three and I give a small preference to Westover over the other two.

Win: Westover

Trifecta: Westover/Mishriff/Emily Upjohn