Showing posts with label Declaration of War. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Declaration of War. Show all posts

Thursday, October 31, 2013

Breeders Cup 2013: 5 horses to follow

Although they've lost their lustre for the past few years, the Breeders Cup championship is still a great spectacle that regroups quality horses from Europe and the best that the USA can offer. Here are 5 horses it might be of benefit to follow.

#1 Wise Dan. Last year's horse of the year still looks formidable in the Turf Mile despite having lost his last race. It certainly looks as if this year's race is of lesser quality than last year's and Wise Dan looks a value selection at even odds. I can't see the main European runner Olympic Glory being a real danger as the bends of Santa Anita and the fast ground will be to his disadvantage. Wise Dan for the Win.

#2 The Fugue. Europe's best middle-distance filly should be very difficult to beat in the Turf. She was unlucky to meet traffic trouble last year and if she gets a free trip, she will certainly be in the whereabouts. She will relish the fast ground and with the connections being very bullish, she is a Win selection as well.

#3 Bobby's Kitten. This is the best "kitten" he's got,  in owner Ramsey's own words. The colorful owner obviously has had other smart kittens from his stallion Kitten's Joy and since this one is supposed to be the best of the lot, he's got to be considered. He won his last race impressively over 6 lengths and looks ready to fire another top performance. The European contingent is headed by Outstrip and Giovanni Boldini but I have a feeling that Bobby's Kitten has home advantage here. He looks good value for the Win.

#4 Romantica. Dank is the obvious big favourite given her dominating win at Arlington a few weeks back. But I rate Romantica from the Andre Fabre stable to be good enough to aspire for a top 3 spot here. The daughter of Banks Hills, herself a winner at the BC championships, will relish the fast ground, something that she has not always been getting in France. Fabre rarely makes the travel unless he sees a big opportunity and I think he's found one in the Filly & Mare Turf. Romantica is a Place selection.

#5 Declaration of War. Ever since Giant's Causeway came agonizingly close to hand Ballydoyle a first win in the Classic, the race they probably aspire the most, many of their superstars have failed on the dirt surface. DOW looks to be their best chance since GC since he's dirt-bred and has the profile to do well, being a strong galloper and the right tactical speed needed for American racing. This could finally be Ballydoyle's year when they bring home the Holy Grail. If he adheres to the surface as I believe he will, I see DOW being a major contender in America's most prestigious race. At current odds, DOW is a value Win selection.

Win: Wise Dan, The Fugue, Bobby's Kitten, Declaration of War
Place: Romantica

Friday, July 5, 2013

Coral Eclipse - The Fugue can test Al Kazeem

Saturday's Coral Eclipse is an opportunity for Al Kazeem to confirm his Royal Ascot win and proclaim himself the best middle-distance horse in England. The main question is whether he can bag his third Group 1 win in a row in a short span of 6 weeks. He is clearly the best-rated horse in the race and if he is 100% fit, there is no doubt in my mind that the rest are running for the places.

I think the market has it right and the winner will come out of these; Al Kazeem, Declaration of War and The Fugue. Mukhadram had AK dig deep at Ascot but my feeling is that the margin between the two will only enlarge given the same amount of days rest. Mars is an interesting contender but being a 3-year old and lightly-raced, I believe his lack of experience will be detrimental on the day. Pastorius is coming back from a disappointing raid in Singapore and there are question marks as to how well he's recuperated from his trip. On his best form, he can be a danger in a Group 1, but I feel that this race might be coming a little too soon for him after his Far East venture.

DOW bounced back fantastically in landing the Queen Anne Stakes at Ascot after flopping badly in the Lockinge. The dilemma is knowing what condition Aidan O'Brien has him now; is he under-cooked, over-cooked or spot on? That's the problem with the Ballydoyle genius trainer, he can get them spot on or he can wreck them big time (I won't go over the So You Think episodes again). Although he's won at the distance and further, I still think that he would be better suited and more dangerous at the mile. He cannot be discarded though particularly if AK and The Fugue don't run their race.

The Fugue ran a cracking third in the Prince of Wales after a long layoff. She stayed on very well and there is no doubt that she will go into the Eclipse in far better shape. 11 furlongs is possibly her best trip. She will absolutely love the fast ground conditions at Sandown. I think there will be less than the 3.5 lengths separation at Ascot between her and AK this time. In my cards, she's the second favourite of the race.

AK has proven to be top-class and I believe only a short time of recuperation from his last run can stop him on Saturday. On level terms and adequate rest, he would dominate this field. The Fugue is on the ascendancy and will pounce on any weakness from AK. At current odds, the latter looks very short, while The Fugue looks good each-way value. That is my selection.

Each-way: The Fugue