Camelot, meet Orfevre

My favourite race of the year: the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in Longchamp is my idea of the greatest race in the world. The legends of the turf have won it and the best horse almost always wins it.

This year's race has been marred by late defections of some leading fancies; title holder Danedream tragically won't be there through no fault of her own, Nathaniel spiked a fever at an unfortunate time, Snow Fairy is out of the season injured. And the mighty Frankel (or more so his connections) opted not to venture on the stamina-sapping 12 furlongs;

The race will still regroup some high-caliber horses, 4 of which seem clear-cut above the rest; Camelot, Orfevre, Saonois and Shareta. I don't think the winner will be outside this quartet.

Camelot failed to win the Triple Crown although he did finish a honourable second in the St Leger. Whether he is the super horse billed by his connections, remains to be seen. His defeat somewhat lowered his colors and reputation that was made of him. He's still a high-class horse that has won the Epsom and Irish Derbies, not forgetting the 2000 Guineas. He is the best 3-year old of the race. There are a lot of positives going for him. He will be ridden by Dettori, he will have a weight allowance against the older generation, and he's by super 12-furlong-sire Montjeu. The only issue I see is how well he's recuperated from his St Leger exertions. It is commonly acknowledged that the great Nijinski got beaten in the Arc because he was still feeling the ill-effects of the Doncaster Classic. There are only 3 weeks separating the 2 races and there is no doubt that the small recuperation time can be taxing, particularly when facing a strong Arc contingent. This is the question mark regarding Camelot; how fit and rested will he be for the race? If he is 100%, he will win orelse he'll be in the placings.

Orfevre, Japanese superstar, maybe not on the same level as Deep Impact, but the best to grace Longchamp since the Sunday Silence wonder horse. He won this trial when not fully wound up a few weeks ago and indications are that he's improved a bunch and will be in top form. He's clearly class, he will be ridden by Soumillon and distance will suit. He looks prime to run a huge race. He should be in the first 3, like Camelot.

Saonois is the best French 3-year old and winner of the French Derby. He was impressive in winning the Prix Niel, considered the main trial for the Arc. He produced an instant acceleration in the last metres of the race after having been held boxed in the straight. Not many other horses would have been able to do that. Saonois must be respected as many French 3-year old colts have shown their mettle in the race over the years.

Shareta is the best remaining filly in the race after the defections of Snow Fairy and Danedream. She was a surprise second last year and she seems even better this year. She won the Prix Vermeille in good style and any reproduction of that form should see her play a major role. She has got a great cruising speed and her ability to stay close to the pace could put her in clear daylight in the straight and not be reached . If she's on song, she could strike strike big for the Aga Khan.

I think Camelot and Orfevre have to be in any trifecta. This could be the day that Japan finally lands the race that it wants most to win. It won the Dubai World Cup, it won the Melbourne Cup, but this is the trophy that it really wants; for prestige, for the record books and posterity. I don't know if it will happen, but I sure will be rooting for Orfevre to achieve what no other Japanese horse has done in the history of the race. May the Sun rise on Arc Day!


Place: Camelot, Orfevre

Clutch and Choke

A week-end with some freakish results with Arsenal, Man Utd and QPR all gunned down at home. Sunderland, Real and Stoke won as expected and Fulham's +1 handicap was good for void in their brave 2-1 defeat against Man City.

The headlines of the week-end were without doubt the Miracle at Medinah Chicago where the European Ryder Cup team produced the greatest come-back ever on Sunday in defeating the US team and thereby retaining the Cup. What sweet revenge it was for Europe, especially team captain Olazabal, as it washed away the tears of Brookline 1999 when the US produced a come-back of their own amidst displays of unsportsmanlike conduct to win the Cup. What an amazing clutch player Europe has found in Ian Poulter who won all his 4 matches and started the inspiration for his teammates late Saturday when he birdied the last 5 holes of his foursome match to give an almost-out Europe some glimmer of hope. The US choked on the final day but it is really a case of the Europeans being the best whenever they are playing their best. I was saying in my previous blog that this European team had nothing to envy from their US counterparts; namely because on an individual basis, they are really better, more talented and more driven.

The countdown to this week is all about the Arc on Sunday and the organizers must be going nuts at the moment. Nathaniel has fallen sick and won't be going. Danedream as well will miss defending her title as she's suddenly stuck in quarantine following a disease outbreak at her stay in Cologne. Talk about freakish timing. Add to this the absence of Snow Fairy, Valyra, Frankel and others and you think that this year's race will be devoid of many of the world's best middle-distance runners. But it becomes great from a punting point of view, I think. At this point, my sight is set on the Japanese superstar Orfevre, the impressive Vermeille winner Shareta, and should he start, Camelot. It could be that other connections decide to supplement their horses in light of so many high-profile defects, we'll see.

Tonight's games in the Champions League look tight. I think Man Utd are in for a rude travel to Cluj. They might still win it because of their potent offense but they are very liable to concede goals with their porous defence. Anytime Johnny Evans is starting with Rio Ferdinand, you can expect some torrid moments in the Utd penalty area, as Tottenham showed over the week-end.

Chelsea should win at Nordsjaellan in Denmark, they are a confident Win selection. Galatasaray will also look to bag all 3 points at home to Poruguese Braga. The hosts should win this. I also like Valencia's chances against France's Lille. It looks worth to go for a straight Valencia win as well here.

Win: Chelsea, Valencia, Galatasaray

In dominant mood

It was a relatively quiet week-end with the domestic leagues giving way to the world cup qualifiers until next week-end. A few events of note however in the varied world of sports.

Snow Fairy winning the Irish Champion Stakes. What an amazing filly she is, and she could very well surpass Ouija Board as Ed Dunlop's best filly. She's won  in UK, Ireland, Japan and Hong Kong, and I would not be surprised if she added France to her conquests when she tackles the Arc in a few weeks time. She's all heart and if I am to truly rate this filly, I only have to look at the 2 races she faced So You Think. In last year's edition of the same Irish Champion Stakes, she was second, only a length behind the Coolmore superstar. In the Arc, she was this time a length in front, although SYT was not given a judicious ride. So in my books, she is weighted a length or two behind the High Chaparral beast, which puts her in a league of only a select few. If Camelot does not make it to the Arc, Snow Fairy must be given a leading chance.

Speaking of Camelot, he looks all set for his big day in destiny on Saturday for the St Leger. It would be great if he makes history, not least for the reason that it would be great for me to witness a Triple Crown in my time. With the way commercial breeding is going, this looks to be a once in a lifetime occurrence, and the Coolmore people need to be lauded for taking this route.

Then, there was Rory Mc Ilroy's win in the BMW Championship, his 3rd title in his last 4 outings. Definitely Rory is back, and he's thrashed Tiger Woods (and the rest) on each occasion. Rory is simply the best golfer in the world at the moment and could remain so if Tiger does not get his mojo back. Rory has a winning chance each time he gets on a tournament, something that was said of Tiger years ago.

Tonight is the US Open final between Djokovic and Murray. Clearly the 2 best players in the world today, with the injury to Nadal. The head says Nole, and the heart says Murray, as I would like the Scot to get the monkey off his back regarding Majors. Djokovic looks strong and definitely knows how to tackle such finals. No recommendation on this one, but I cannot see any wrong punting for the Serb to win.

The Arc 2011 - History beckons for So You Think

The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is the greatest and most prestigious of all races, in my opinion. For others, it is the Epsom Derby, the Kentucky Derby, the Dubai World Cup, the Breeders Cup Classic, or the Melbourne Cup, but the Arc is my favourite, from a pure racing point of view. The best horse of the race almost always wins. And it's usually the best horse in the world at the classic mile and a half distance.

This year's Arc is one of the most open in recent years, with no clear front-runner in the betting market. My opinion is if So You Think runs to his true ability, it will be a one-horse show. Here's my lowdown on the main contestants.

Sarafina is deservingly among the favourites. She came out third in last year's race the winner after being checked entering the straight. With a clear run, she would have been closer than the 2 lengths she finished off the winner. This year, she has been drawn in the 13th stall, which is a very bad draw, but since she comes from off the pace, that disadvantage will be negligible. She's in top form according to her trainer and I see her being among the strong finishers although seeing her winning it looks to be a stretch.

Workforce is the defending champion and he certainly would have a good chance of repeating if he's on his best form. One negative is that his jockey Ryan Moore has just returned to the saddle yesterday Friday after an injury layoff and will not be at 100% of his powers. The King Best colt is not to be dismissed but he would need some luck in running to beat the opposition this year.

Snow Fairy can mix it up with the colts no problem. I consider her as one of the 3 best middle-distance distaffers in the world. Her light race schedule this year will see her being in top form on Sunday. On her last race, she gave So You Think a scare and finished a lot closer to him than I thought she would. She will be ridden by Dettori which is a plus. She looks to be a very good Place prospect.

Treasure Beach is one of the best 3 year-olds at the distance and would have won 2 Derbies were it not for the exploits of Pour Moi. The Galileo colt also won a Grade 1 in the U.S and looks an uncomplicated sort who should find no problem adapting to the Longchamp track. He must have an outside chance and if race conditions are favourable to him, he could spring an upset.

So You Think has won 4 out of 5 in his European outings and his only loss has been well documented as a self-confessed trainer error. It is striking that the same trainer is insisting that SYT is a 10-furlong horse. How can a horse that very nearly won the Melbourne Cup be treated as a 10-furlong specialist? If that's the way the horse has been trained since joining the Ballydoyle stable, most possibly due for breeding purposes, then he will not have a chance against the other seasoned stayers. Speed being the attraction nowadays, O'Brien might have gotten directives from the Coolmore brass to make SYT as the best 10f horse around. But his pedigree screams 12f, just like his sire High Chapparal. The only other question mark is the assignment of Heffernan as jockey. The Irishman is far from proven on the French track and when chips are as big as this. My take on SYT is clear; if he's not been messed about by his genius-like, yet flawed trainer, and he's not subject to a pilot error, he's going to win because he's a notch above every single horse in the race.

Of the rest of the field, Galikova is going to be great next year, but has not yet attained the level required to win this year's edition. Saint Nicholas Abbey has been mostly hype and is just not good enough. The Japanese horses are the big question mark and it would not be entirely surprising if one of them came out the winner.

My trifecta selection is So You Think, Snow Fairy, Sarafina. This is the grandest stage of all for the Australasian superstar to cement his status as one of the all-time greats.

No way for Wales

A few races of note over the week-end as well as the European qualifiers, but nothing to really crow about in the world of racing or football.

So You Think won the Champion stakes race at Leopardstown beating the good filly Snow Fairy by half a length. After this race, it's hard to have a gauge of the real ability of SYT. If he had won by much more, as was expected, he would have possibly confirmed being the best in the world from the 10-12 furlong distance. The fact that he struggled to win more convincingly could be attributed to his 2 month lay-off, or that Snow Fairy was at the top of her game, which is not far from the truth after 2 conditional outings. Still, deep down, SYT connections and supporters, like myself, will no doubt have been disappointed with the manner of the win.

England is expected to beat Wales today for the Euro qualifiers and I certainly think they will. Wales is a sad sight in international football and I wish it was otherwise. Sad because over the years, they have produced world-class players of the likes of Neville Southall, Ryan Giggs and Gareth Bale along with decent players like Hartson, Speed, Bellamy, but never been able to make them work as a team. The closest that they came to being competitive were a few years ago when Mark Hughes was at the helm. He produced wondrous results such as beating Italy but came just short at the end. Had he continued and not gone back to club football, maybe the success of the Welsh team would have continued. But I don't see much hope of them being a premier team for now or years to come. To become that, they would need a first-class manager, not a newcomer who's learning the ropes of management. But again, which first-rate manager would want to manage the team, one has to ask. It's too bad because a talent like Gareth Bale would benefit heaps playing European Championships and World Cups. England to win is the recommendation.

Win: England