C's and T's: Dawn Approach's challenge

New Approach made his mark as a serious Classic sire today after Talent's surprising victory in the Oaks. The question is whether he can make it a bis repetita celebration when his son Dawn Approach guns for Derby victory as a heavy favourite.

It seems to be a unanimous feeling that if Dawn Approach gets the 12-furlong distance, he will win. Based on form, there is not much in the race that comes close to Godolphin's representative. The answer to his stamina concerns lies in a momentous discovery in thoroughbred racing central of which is no other than his trainer Jim Bolger himself. It is his company that made the breakthrough that racehorses can be empirically categorized as pure sprinters, stayers and a mixture of both based on samplings of their DNA. To simplify a long story, if C stands for a sprinter-type and T for a stayer-type, then a CC-horse is bound to be primarily a short-distance specialist having received the C genes from both the dam and sire. On the same note, a TT-type horse will be more apt for stamina-challenging races. CT or TC-type horses can turn out to be in either part of the spectrum; they can become great sprinters, milers or stayers.

If Jim Bolger did not have Dawn Approach in the Derby preliminary entries, it is for the simple reason that he had empirical evidence that the colt is a CC-type horse, i.e, a sprinting type not suited for the Derby distance. The story goes that it is the colt's other owner, Godolphin's Sheikh Mohammed that decided to go for the Classic.

Given the above, it is clear that for Dawn Approach to win the Derby, 2 things must happen. First, he must have the class that will carry him through the distance. He will need to find every bit of it in the last furlong to the post, where many other champions (Dubai Millenium is the prime example) have floundered. The manner of all his wins lead me to think that Dawn Approach has that amount of required class. Second, much depends on the quality of his opponents. From what most of them have shown, their forms are very exposed. Battle of Marengo was workmanlike in the Derrinstown Derby Trial. Although unbeaten in 3 races, Ocovango is no Pour Moi although many pundits try to find similarities. Ocovango looks more like a galloper and lacks the burst of acceleration of the Derby winner. He can be in the thereabouts but at current odds, I think he's a great one to lay. The winner could come out of the rest of the pack with the likes of Mars, Ruler of the World or the unbeaten Chopin, but none of them would be a confident pick. It seems that whichever acts more on the Epsom undulations will have a chance of usurping the favourite.

My confident selection is Dawn Approach to be in the first 3. If he takes to the distance, he could rout this field. If not, there might be a dark horse among the rest waiting to bask in Epsom's glory. I don't think it will be Battle of Marengo or Ocovango, so they would be my lays of the race.

Place: Dawn Approach

Lay: Battle of Marengo, Ocovango

Pantheon of the greats

What a week-end! Every single selection hit, except for hapless Arsenal who managed to go lose at Norwich. Obviously, the main talking point after Saturday was the place of Frankel among the all-time greats. Best horse there has ever been, has been a very popular clamour. There is no right or wrong answer on this one and I stand among those that will fall short of calling him the best ever. He could very well be the best of them all, but it impossible for me to give him that ultimate accolade with absolute confidence or certainty.

Don't get me wrong; Frankel is an unbelievable beast, the likes of which I've never seen before. He's the greatest miler of all time. Better, I consider him the best racehorse to have ever run up to 10 furlongs. If there was any match race from 8 to10 furlongs and I could select any horse, it would be him. He's the most dominant horse that has ever run at those distances. He's proved it by beating champions of the caliber of Canford Cliffs, Excelebration, and Cirrus des Aigles. He put anything that opposed him to submission.

But he hasn't run at 12 furlongs, the distance of reference for the best of the best, in my opinion. This is the distance of the Derbies, of the most-prestigious Arc, of the King George. This is the distance that tells the difference in class between the great and the immortal ones. The awesome Dubai Millenium lost his invincibility on his Derby attempt, a lack of stamina that was the cause of his only defeat. This is the distance that some mighty champions of Montjeu toyed with the their challengers. This is the distance that made the legends of Dancing Brave, Ribot, Deep Impact, Zarkava, Sea Bird, Nijinski, to name a few.

Frankel did not attempt that mythical distance, and the travesty of it all, is that he seemed to have the pedigree, being a son of Galileo. Had he won a high-caliber Group 1 at 12 furlongs, he would be my undisputed champion of all time. Would he have flopped like Dubai Millenium? Or would he have been as dominant as he proved at shorter distances? Have would he have reacted on the Longchamp straight with Ribot working on his inside and Deep Impact, Zarkava and Dancing Brave breathing down his neck with their dazzling finish, for the ultimate Arc? Most probably, he would have trounced all of them, but alas, he has no form to prove it. On similar lines, Black Caviar is possibly the greatest sprinter of all time, but she's just that, a sprinter; not the greatest racehorse there has been.

Not many champions end their career undefeated. The mystique behind Frankel is that he can not only boast he never got beaten, but he destroyed almost any horse that crossed his path. Such was his dominance. He's racing's version of Lionel Messi; he won everything there is to win while beating every record, except winning the World Cup. Can he be considered the greatest?

There has never been a certainty like Frankel in race punting, at least not in these times. He will be missed. He's the benchmark against which all future milers and 10-furlong performers will be gauged. I believe he will stay thus for a long long time. Frankel was a destroyer, possibly not the greatest racehorse, but certainly the most dominant thoroughbred there has been.

Frankel, what next?

Lady of Shamrock won as expected, but it was not a great start to the EPL or La Liga seasons as Real Madrid failed to win and Man Utd lost. Barcelona and Man City won as expected but City had to dig deep down to overcome newcomers Southampton.

Back to racing where Frankel gave yet another peer-less demonstration in the Juddmonte International, dismantling the likes of St Nicholas Abbey and Farhh. Now that he's proved his authority at a mile and a quarter against quality opposition, what is next for him? The Champion Stakes at the same distance on Champions Day seems to be the preferred destination for connections. This will not enhance his rating or reputation. There are 3 things that remain for him to show before he's unequivocally called the best thoroughbred to have ever run, to put any debate to rest, to surpass the Sea The Stars, Ribot, and Secretariat in all minds. To prove to any racing goer beyond any doubt.

For purits like me, he needs to win at a mile and a half. This is the ultimate distance for European racing and breeding. This is the Classic distance that separated the greats like Dancing Brave, Montjeu, Sinndar, to very good ones that tried but didn't stay like Dubai Millenium.

He needs to win outside of England. Black Caviar has come to Royal Ascot to show her greatness and Frankel needs to step outside of these shores to show he can travel and adapt to a new environment whether it's in France or the States. Or Dubai.

Finally, the ultimate would be to win on dirt. Giant's Causeway and Sakhee, turf champions in their own right, almost did it on dirt in their Breeders Cup ventures. To show to the racing world, particularly the American public, that he's the uncontested champion on either surface.

In other words, to achieve the greatest of all feats, he needs to win the Arc and the Breeders Cup Classic. The Coolmore connections have to be lauded to have tried So You Think in both, plus in the Dubai World Cup. They had the horse to do it, but not the trainer. Frankel, I believe he can achieve both, but I don't think the connections will run in any of these 2 races. His place among the greats is already secured, the risk of him losing his undefeated tag is too big to take. As is, he's the best there has ever run in most minds. Whether it's an uncontested or undisputed fact, is not something that will concern the connections. It looks like Champions Day Champion Stakes is the remaining race for all of us to look forward to savoring this amazing thoroughbred that is Frankel.