Goodwood Sussex Stakes 2019 - A Darn Hot contest

John Gosden and Franco Dettori are having a sizzling hot summer with their superstars and the trend looks set to continue when Too Darn Hot lines up for the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood. The juvenile champion seems to be back to his best after having been mismanaged in the early part of the season. The easy course mile looks very well within his compass and looks good value for the win at odds against.

The rest of the field are no slouch, with the likes of Phoenix of Spain, Lord Glitters and Circus Maximus but if the son of Dubawi has maintained the form of his Jean Prat win a few weeks ago, he should have fear of no one.

Win: Too Darn Hot
Value Place: Lord Glitters

Arc de Triomphe 2013 - The Revenge of Orfevre?

Sunday's Arc de Triomphe is the highlight of the racing calendar for me and it looks set to be a fascinating renewal with some major contenders on the line. But the main question has to be with Orfevre, the Japanese mega-star and unlucky runner-up of last year's edition. To me, if the "Crazy Horse" is in top form and in the right frame of mind on the day, there will be no race; he has the potential to crush the field, he is that good.

Here are some of my thoughts on the main aspirants to the throne.

Orfevre. Much has been written about his heartbreak loss last year. Trainer Ikee somewhat gave closure to why he threw the race away this week. No, it was not a lack of stamina or a running out of gas as many speculated, since he accelerated and galloped away after the finish line. It was the flawed genius with his antics again. His prep Prix Foy win a few weeks ago looked convincing, allowing for the premise that he has retained his ability and might even be a better horse this year with an enhanced mental. This year, he has an ideal post and the soft ground will be of no detriment, unlike with some others. Unless he has an off-day and fails to fire, I cannot see him out of the first 3. He is head-and-shoulders the best horse in the race.

Treve. Unless she turns out to have Zarkava-like abilities, I cannot put her on a pedestal that many others are inclined to do. She is unbeaten in 4 and has looked dominant in the Prix Diane and Prix Vermeille but I have some reservations on the form book there. Soft ground won't be a problem to her but her very wide draw should be of concern to her backers. Orfevre easily overcame that issue last year but it won't be easy for a 3-year old filly running first time against males. I don't believe the switch of mount from Dettori to Jarnet will make a difference as she's won with the latter on 3 occasions. She is classy and can make the frame, but she's a definite lay in my books for the win.

Novellist. He rose to the top of the European middle-distance division by trouncing the King George in record-time. Then, he labored to win at Baden Baden prompting many questions about his real quality. Again here, my view is somewhat contrarian to most. While I cannot argue that he lowered the time scale by 2 seconds at Ascot, I've got to ask who he beat; Trading Leather, Universal, Hillstar are certainly not genuine Group 1 performers. Jockey Murtagh says he was impressed with the horse at Ascot and though I certainly respect his views on most matters, I've got to wonder whether his view is distorted by the fact that the facile win was against average opposition. At Baden Baden, his hard-fought win was dismissed as a prep for the Arc but it could very well be that he was either past his peak form or the race was a reflection of his true ability. Still, having won 9 out of 11 races and being a strong German-bred, he's got to be respected, but while he might be in the placings, he's another lay for the win for me.

Kizuna. He's a Japanese Derby winner by Deep Impact and won the Prix Niel by a nose. I have him several notches behind Orfevre at this point and his current odds are way too short. I am willing to lay him for both the win and placings.

Ruler of the World. The Derby winner looked an unlucky second to Kizuna in the Niel, having endured a torrid trip to the finish line. The main question is how good he really is? The form at Epsom is certainly  not transpiring very well and he could be just a good horse. The fact that stablemate Leaing Light has been supplemented indicates that connections must not be too confident either. He will have to benefit from exceptional circumstances to win this. I don't think he will make the frame.

Al Kazeem.  He will relish the soft ground but the extreme-wide draw killed most of his chances today. He is a solid top-class horse that has done well since the start of the season but he hasn't faced horses like this before. Certainly a big lay for the win at current odds

Intello. He's the big question mark of the race for me. There are doubts about his stamina based on his pedigree, being by a Danehill sprinter mare. He's definitely top drawer and if his class can carry him through, he will be a major player. The indications are strong that he was not initially prepared for the race and was destined for the major 8 to 10 furlong Group races where he's excelled. However, the flop of flag bearer Flintshire in the Niel probably prompted trainer Fabre to divert his course to the Arc. I cannot have him as a Win based on his preparation but it wouldn't surprised me if he finished in the frame.

Flintshire. He was the major disappointment of the Prix Niel where he was supposed to show his credentials as a major player in the Arc. It could be that the soft ground played to his disadvantage on the day but the ground will not get any better on Sunday. Trainer Fabre has opined that Intello is his best chance, so it's hard to side with this representative of Juddmonte stables.

Leading Light. St Leger winner but I doubt he is good enough to win this. Being by Montjeu and having been supplemented, he's got to be respected but I don't share the confidence of the connections. He's a big lay for me.

It's got to be Orfevre for me, with the hope that he shows his true best on Sunday. If he succeeds where every Japanese runner, including the mighty Deep Impact, has failed, you can expect the roof to come down with the staunch army of Japanese supporters at Longchamp. It could be an Arc for the ages and Orfevre carries the hope of a nation. The "Crazy Horse" can do it. For the placings, I will go with Novellist and Intello.


Win: Orfevre
Place: Novellist, Intello
Lay for Win: Kizuna, Al Kazeem, Treve, Novellist, Ruler of the World, Leading Light

Camelot, meet Orfevre

My favourite race of the year: the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in Longchamp is my idea of the greatest race in the world. The legends of the turf have won it and the best horse almost always wins it.

This year's race has been marred by late defections of some leading fancies; title holder Danedream tragically won't be there through no fault of her own, Nathaniel spiked a fever at an unfortunate time, Snow Fairy is out of the season injured. And the mighty Frankel (or more so his connections) opted not to venture on the stamina-sapping 12 furlongs;

The race will still regroup some high-caliber horses, 4 of which seem clear-cut above the rest; Camelot, Orfevre, Saonois and Shareta. I don't think the winner will be outside this quartet.

Camelot failed to win the Triple Crown although he did finish a honourable second in the St Leger. Whether he is the super horse billed by his connections, remains to be seen. His defeat somewhat lowered his colors and reputation that was made of him. He's still a high-class horse that has won the Epsom and Irish Derbies, not forgetting the 2000 Guineas. He is the best 3-year old of the race. There are a lot of positives going for him. He will be ridden by Dettori, he will have a weight allowance against the older generation, and he's by super 12-furlong-sire Montjeu. The only issue I see is how well he's recuperated from his St Leger exertions. It is commonly acknowledged that the great Nijinski got beaten in the Arc because he was still feeling the ill-effects of the Doncaster Classic. There are only 3 weeks separating the 2 races and there is no doubt that the small recuperation time can be taxing, particularly when facing a strong Arc contingent. This is the question mark regarding Camelot; how fit and rested will he be for the race? If he is 100%, he will win orelse he'll be in the placings.

Orfevre, Japanese superstar, maybe not on the same level as Deep Impact, but the best to grace Longchamp since the Sunday Silence wonder horse. He won this trial when not fully wound up a few weeks ago and indications are that he's improved a bunch and will be in top form. He's clearly class, he will be ridden by Soumillon and distance will suit. He looks prime to run a huge race. He should be in the first 3, like Camelot.

Saonois is the best French 3-year old and winner of the French Derby. He was impressive in winning the Prix Niel, considered the main trial for the Arc. He produced an instant acceleration in the last metres of the race after having been held boxed in the straight. Not many other horses would have been able to do that. Saonois must be respected as many French 3-year old colts have shown their mettle in the race over the years.

Shareta is the best remaining filly in the race after the defections of Snow Fairy and Danedream. She was a surprise second last year and she seems even better this year. She won the Prix Vermeille in good style and any reproduction of that form should see her play a major role. She has got a great cruising speed and her ability to stay close to the pace could put her in clear daylight in the straight and not be reached . If she's on song, she could strike strike big for the Aga Khan.

I think Camelot and Orfevre have to be in any trifecta. This could be the day that Japan finally lands the race that it wants most to win. It won the Dubai World Cup, it won the Melbourne Cup, but this is the trophy that it really wants; for prestige, for the record books and posterity. I don't know if it will happen, but I sure will be rooting for Orfevre to achieve what no other Japanese horse has done in the history of the race. May the Sun rise on Arc Day!


Place: Camelot, Orfevre

Blue threat

So You Think silenced his doubters as he won the Prince of Wales stakes, a race he should have won last year as well. That horse is all class and on his best day can beat anybody between 10 and 12 furlongs. In his post-race comments, it was extraordinary to hear Aidan O'Brien admit his failings in training the horse properly, something I have been screaming on rooftops countless times since last year. The conditioner has blown it big time in getting the best out of the Australasian monster but I found him very classy to step up and apologize. Not many would have done so.

Planteur lost the race before the start as he sweated profusely in the paddock. I think he does not take to Ascot and its crowd, as he also failed to fire last year. He's still a top-class horse and is can compete when he goes back to race in France, though.

Thursday sees Fame and Glory trying to retain his Gold Cup crown. He probably will, but I think the value in the race is Opinion Poll. This is as honest a horse as there is. He has a fantastic record with Frankie Dettori but he latter has preferred stable mate Colour Vision. Last year, the Italian also preferred Holberg but it was Opinion Poll that was the main threat in finishing second to Fame and Glory. The Halling colt was partnered by Barzalona, again his rider tomorrow, with whom he has 2 second place finishes out of 3 outings. I think he will again be in the whereabouts at the finish and give him a good Place chance.


Place: Opinion Poll

Lots on the line

Opinion Poll was among the placings, as expected, but Viscount Nelson was a no-show. The latter summed up a disappointing  meeting for the de Kock stable, in contrast to the Godolphin team which are pouring in the entries and getting the results, i.e. wins.

With their huge stable, it is no surprise that today the Dubai stable announced the recruitment of a 3rd jockey in their ranks, notably Barzalona, to help the causes of Dettori and the newly-recruited de Sousa. They were always going to attract the best jockeys to replace Dettori and the 2 new recruits are among the best in the business. Godolphin look to have renewed spring in their steps this year, and should be followed closely.

Racing Stateside, this week-end sees the running of the Santa Anita Handicap. Ultimate Eagle is the one to follow here; the son of Mizzen Mast looks to play a leading role among the older division this year after a demolition of the field on his first start on dirt. He should be in the first 3 and is recommended as a Place.

Moving East-wide, more particularly in Singapore, where the country's flag-ship horse Rocket Man makes his preparation for the Golden Shaheen in a few weeks time by running in a 6-furlong race in Kranji. He should win this, even though I don't think he's still as good as before (in other words, I don't think he will be a threat to Black Caviar if they were to meet). He's recommended as a Win.

In football, this looks like a week-end where Man City could distance themselves from Man Utd as the latter face a tough trip to Tottenham while City host Bolton. The Citizens should win their match against the Trotters and are recommended as a straight Win. If Utd can win at White Hart Lane, it would be massive for them and send shudders to their neighbours. A huge game it will be on Sunday and it could go either way.

Fulham host Wolves and I believe Martin Jol's men will pile misery on the visitors, who look primed for the drop, I believe. Fulham is a draw-no-bet selection.

Win: Rocket Man, Man City

Place: Ultimate Eagle

Draw-no-bet: Fulham

Meydan Week 8

Meydan is the shining light amid this rather quiet sporting week where dull and meaningless international football is about the only thing on offer.

In the Group 2 Zabeel Mile, Viscount Nelson stands out after his recent win a fortnight ago. Mike de Kock has yet again brought back to life a Ballydoyle reject and the son of Giant's Causeway should be among the major contenders again. He is recommended as an each-way.

In the Group 3 1m6f race, the winner looks destined to come from the Godolphin camp, with Fox Hunter and Opinion Poll being the market leaders. The latter always gives a good account of himself and does well after a layoff. He's run well at Meydan before although he hasn't won at the track. Frankie Dettori has opted for Fox Hunter but Barzalona has proven to be as equally or even more effective as the stable second string jockey. I recommend Opinion Poll as a Place.

Each-way: Viscount Nelson

Place: Opinion Poll

Lousy Dettori ride

Pimpernel backers will rightly feel aggrieved after the shocking ride she was subjected to in the Oaks. Just finished watching the replay again and no matter what Al Zarooni has said about Pimpernel being "too keen early on", the ride from Frankie Dettori merits disgust. She wouldn't have won, but second place was there for the taking, had the Italian shown some vigor aboard. Where was the Dettori full of zest aboard Rewilding in lowering the colors of So You Think at Royal Ascot? Talk about being him being immobile on Pimpernel. If yesterday's race had been run in Hong Kong, the stewards would have sent Frankie on a long expensive holiday, no doubt.

Frankie's a great jockey but he came out with a shameful nugget in that race.

The week-end's EPL match-ups are coming up and you get the feeling that some managers out there are playing for their careers. I don't know who's feeling more pressure right now, Villa Boas or Wenger? Probably the Chelsea manager, as the Frenchman still has some "goodwill" left with the Arsenal board, although that is surely rapidly dwindling! Both teams will win nothing this year, I predict!

Chelsea host Bolton in what are 3 must-win points, or else AVB could be out after the final whistle. I think they'll win although nothing is certain with the club in crisis. Draw-no-bet looks good value at this point and is the recommendation.

Newcastle host Wolves who will be under a new manager. Usually the introduction of a new manager somewhat spurs the team in his first game in charge, but they are really up to a very good Newcastle team at St James Park. The Magpies will have had the time to reflect on their recent drubbing at Tottenham and it's hard to see them losing at home. I recommend the hosts as draw-no-bet as well.

Leaders Man City host Blackburn and this should be straightforward win for the hosts. They have got their players back from the African Nations Cup. More importantly, they have settled things with Tevez, who will be an important asset in the title run-in. Although the Argentinian will not be playing tomorrow, Man City should have ample ammunition to see of Blackburn.

To me, Spurs looks to have the upper hand against Arsenal in the London Derby. The Gunners will play at home but their form is so poor and their team beset by injuries and a lack of confidence, that this is a great opportunity for the high-flying Spurs to prolong their arch-rivals' misery. Besides Van Persie, Tottenham will field a team that is better than Arsenal's in every other position. Spurs look to be the best value punt of the week-end.

Win: Man City
Draw-no-bet: Chelsea, Newcastle, Tottenham

Meydan Carnival start

Tottenham edge past West Brom to keep pace atop the table. Harry Redknapp's men will definitely need to grind out such kinds of results if they hope to challenge the Manchester teams for the title.

Meydan racing starts on Thursday and Godolphin look to be taking matters very seriously this year. Both bin Suroor and Al Zaroori are loading up the gates. I am not sure about the overall strategy of the Blue team here. Starting their best horses so early in Dubai will obviously rule them out for the important late European races of the year. The global picture regarding the goals of the stable has been fuzzy for some time; global domination does not seem to be top of the agenda anymore.

The Thursday card looks very competitive and I look at Honour System to offer the best forecast of the night, in the second handicap race. The Godolphin outfit has won in a handicap race at Meydan last year and the race looks within his grasp. Dettori takes the ride and I put a Place recommendation on the King Best gelding.

Place: Honour System

All about Frankel

Wadha was a disappointing third but Final Delivery was a good-placed second. 

A terrific week-end of horse racing and football coming up.

It's Champions Day at Ascot where all eyes will be on Frankel, the greatest thoroughbred in the eyes of many. All reports seem to indicate that he's on top of his game, thus he should win. I think he will win. A big win recommendation. The one that can come close is Excelebration, which should be a good Place punt for those that fancy looking at the rest of the field besides the Henry Cecil colt.

I've always favoured So You Think in each of his European outings. I think he will get turned over tomorrow because the race comes too soon for him after the Arc. If this race were one week later, I would give him a great chance, but as is, I think he'll run a good race but won't win against seasoned and well-rested horses. Just my opinion. I wished he bypassed this race and went straight to the BC Classic. It looks the connections want to go for both, and I feel it's a case where they won't get the best of the horse in either race. Time and results will tell if I am right or not.

I like Opinion Poll in the Long Distance Cup. This Godolphin colt always gives his best and has a great partnership with Dettori. He is recommended as a Place.

In football, it's the big clash between Liverpool and Man Utd. The rivalry has somewhat faded in recent years because of the demise of the Reds, but it is bound to be a well-contested match. Liverpool have the home advantage but this can really go either way. Man City is recommended as a draw-no-bet as I cannot see them losing to visiting Aston Villa. I think QPR is the best draw-no-bet of the week-end as it hosts Blackburn. Neil Warnock's men are tough to overcome at home and should give Blackburn all they can handle. Arsenal is another good draw-no-bet as it hosts struggling Sunderland.

In Spain, Real Madrid and Barcelona should win their home matches against Betis and Santander respectively. Real Betis started with a bang but have lost their last 2 matches. It is more a case of back to the earth for them. Real Madrid and Barcelona are recommended as straight home wins.


Win: Frankel, Barcelona, Real Madrid
Place: Opinion Poll

The Arc 2011 - History beckons for So You Think

The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe is the greatest and most prestigious of all races, in my opinion. For others, it is the Epsom Derby, the Kentucky Derby, the Dubai World Cup, the Breeders Cup Classic, or the Melbourne Cup, but the Arc is my favourite, from a pure racing point of view. The best horse of the race almost always wins. And it's usually the best horse in the world at the classic mile and a half distance.

This year's Arc is one of the most open in recent years, with no clear front-runner in the betting market. My opinion is if So You Think runs to his true ability, it will be a one-horse show. Here's my lowdown on the main contestants.

Sarafina is deservingly among the favourites. She came out third in last year's race the winner after being checked entering the straight. With a clear run, she would have been closer than the 2 lengths she finished off the winner. This year, she has been drawn in the 13th stall, which is a very bad draw, but since she comes from off the pace, that disadvantage will be negligible. She's in top form according to her trainer and I see her being among the strong finishers although seeing her winning it looks to be a stretch.

Workforce is the defending champion and he certainly would have a good chance of repeating if he's on his best form. One negative is that his jockey Ryan Moore has just returned to the saddle yesterday Friday after an injury layoff and will not be at 100% of his powers. The King Best colt is not to be dismissed but he would need some luck in running to beat the opposition this year.

Snow Fairy can mix it up with the colts no problem. I consider her as one of the 3 best middle-distance distaffers in the world. Her light race schedule this year will see her being in top form on Sunday. On her last race, she gave So You Think a scare and finished a lot closer to him than I thought she would. She will be ridden by Dettori which is a plus. She looks to be a very good Place prospect.

Treasure Beach is one of the best 3 year-olds at the distance and would have won 2 Derbies were it not for the exploits of Pour Moi. The Galileo colt also won a Grade 1 in the U.S and looks an uncomplicated sort who should find no problem adapting to the Longchamp track. He must have an outside chance and if race conditions are favourable to him, he could spring an upset.

So You Think has won 4 out of 5 in his European outings and his only loss has been well documented as a self-confessed trainer error. It is striking that the same trainer is insisting that SYT is a 10-furlong horse. How can a horse that very nearly won the Melbourne Cup be treated as a 10-furlong specialist? If that's the way the horse has been trained since joining the Ballydoyle stable, most possibly due for breeding purposes, then he will not have a chance against the other seasoned stayers. Speed being the attraction nowadays, O'Brien might have gotten directives from the Coolmore brass to make SYT as the best 10f horse around. But his pedigree screams 12f, just like his sire High Chapparal. The only other question mark is the assignment of Heffernan as jockey. The Irishman is far from proven on the French track and when chips are as big as this. My take on SYT is clear; if he's not been messed about by his genius-like, yet flawed trainer, and he's not subject to a pilot error, he's going to win because he's a notch above every single horse in the race.

Of the rest of the field, Galikova is going to be great next year, but has not yet attained the level required to win this year's edition. Saint Nicholas Abbey has been mostly hype and is just not good enough. The Japanese horses are the big question mark and it would not be entirely surprising if one of them came out the winner.

My trifecta selection is So You Think, Snow Fairy, Sarafina. This is the grandest stage of all for the Australasian superstar to cement his status as one of the all-time greats.

Major start

Hooray! The first 3 placings went to the 3 horses mentioned; El Muqbil beat Burj Hatta into second for 2 winning Place recommendations, and longshot Lupa Montana sealed the third spot for an exquisite Place for those who did not mind taking some risk.

On Thursday, Godolphin are in full force in the 20:05 Conditions Stakes race at Doncaster by fielding 3 of the 5 runners. This race should go between the stablemates Secrecy and Invisible Man. The former looks to be the stable's first string, being ridden by Dettori, and makes his seasonal debut. Godolphin runners do very well after a long layoff and I recommend this son of King's Best as an each-way. He should be at the finish.

The British Open starts tomorrow and all eyes will be on Rory McIlroy. The fact that the Irishman hasn't played competitive golf since his win in the US Open has the naysayers thinking he is going in without the best preparation. That might be true. He usually gets out of the gates fast, so the first 2 days will give an indication whether he's genuinely in the running or not. There are too many unknowns going in this tournament for there to be a clear-cut favourite. If McIlroy is on-song and tames the course, he should be in the thereabouts. At the end, it might very well give someone the chance to win a Major. You bet all of them are relishing the opportunity to win a Major one while Tiger remains in convalescence.


Each-way: Secrecy