Goodwood Sussex Stakes 2019 - A Darn Hot contest

John Gosden and Franco Dettori are having a sizzling hot summer with their superstars and the trend looks set to continue when Too Darn Hot lines up for the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood. The juvenile champion seems to be back to his best after having been mismanaged in the early part of the season. The easy course mile looks very well within his compass and looks good value for the win at odds against.

The rest of the field are no slouch, with the likes of Phoenix of Spain, Lord Glitters and Circus Maximus but if the son of Dubawi has maintained the form of his Jean Prat win a few weeks ago, he should have fear of no one.

Win: Too Darn Hot
Value Place: Lord Glitters

A look at Breeders Cup 2012

Another good past week-end where only Bayern failed to deliver while other selections were spot on.

This coming Friday and Saturday is all about the Breeders Cup at Santa Anita. Whether it is still the world thoroughbred championship remains to be seen, but there is no doubt that the creme of US racing is there. This year, the 2-year olds will be racing without Lasix, so don't be surprised if the form is reversed in the juvenile races because of the absence of this diuretic. Over the years, I found it beneficial to just stick with a few races where I believe there are certainties, and this year is no different. Right or wrong, I think there are the following 4 certainties to go by in the next 2 days.

The first one looks to be a bold one that could bite but I'm sticking with it; Royal Delta will not win the Ladies Classic. This year's race is possibly the most competitive championship filly race in the US for a long time. Seven out of the eight runners are Group 1 winners. Two champions, Awesome Feather and My Miss Aurelia, are undefeated. The favourite Royal Delta has the highest rating of field, is the defending champion, and comes to Santa Anita from a near-ten length romp of a Group 1 field in her last outing. According to connections, she's in top form. But I believe she won't win, here's why.

Awesome Feather is undefeated in 10 races. She's injury-prone, but her last comeback race showed her talent hasn't been diminished by the long layoffs when she destroyed the field by over 11 lengths. I like the way she finishes her races and the mile and a furlong distance will be right up her alley. I think she'll be in the first 3, and will go each-way on her.

Then there's Questing and My Miss Aurelia who last battled in the Group 1 Cotillion Stakes, with the latter prevailing by a nose at the finish. Prior to the race, Questing was considered by many as the best 3-year old filly in training. Both are very talented and look set to give a race to their elders on Friday.

Royal Delta is way too short at the exchanges. I'll lay her all day. She is very good on her day, but she's been beaten three times this year already. She will have to deal with the 3 no-nonsense fillies above. Awesome Feather looks to be a better pick.

The Mile Turf. This promises to be a great race among the 3 main contenders. Wise Dan, the US champion, Excelebration, the best miler in the world with the retirement of Frankel, and Moonlight Cloud, a high-class filly who's highly rated by her conditioner Freddy Head, who also trained the mighty Miesque and incomparable Goldikova. Wise Dan has the advantage of being at home; he's dominated the North American mile scene and the Santa Anita hard turf and bends will suit him to perfection.If he'd race in Europe, he would not be as competitive. There isn't much more to say on Excelebration that hasn't been written. On his best form, he will annihilate this field. The only negative is that he's running his second Group 1 race in just 2 weeks. His fitness won't be at its mighty peak. Moonlight Cloud has solid grounds to be in the placings and is possibly around two lengths behind Excelebration on their best form.

I believe Wise Dan will run his race and should thus be in the first 3. If Excelebration has recuperated enough from his last race, he'll be tough to beat. Moonlight Cloud won't be far back if she takes to the Santa Anita track. Thus the only certain thing is that Wise Dan is destined for at least a place and that's the selection.

Filly and Mare Turf. If there is a trainer from the European team who knows US racing and form, it's John Gosden. He has targeted this race for The Fugue for a long time and the Dansili filly looks destined to play a major role in this year's race. She will love the fast ground and she will be well rested from her last race where she was a good second to high-class Shareta in the Yorkshire Oaks. She has a first-class chance to win this, and should she fail, I cannot see her out of the first 3. Her main opponents look to be from the European raiding party in Ridasiyna and Nahrain, as well as the American Lady of Shamrock. I will oppose the first one because she very much prefers soft ground; Nahrain's form is inconsistent at best, and Lady of Shamrock still has a few pounds to find to The Fugue. Each-way on The Fugue is the recommendation.

Will not win: Royal Delta
Each-way: Awesome Feather, The Fugue
Place: Wise Dan

St Leger 2012 Preview

This week-end looks loaded, the highlight of which might be the history-in-the-making of Camelot who will attempt to complete the Triple Crown of British racing. In any ordinary year, this would have been the major talking point of the racing community and unbeaten Ballydoyle superstar would have drawn comparisons with the greatest to have graced the turf, among the likes of Nijinski, Mill Reef and Brigadier Gerard. But understandably, with his spectacular exploits, it is Frankel who's magnetized public hearts. A victory on Saturday will give some credence to his growing legion of fans that he deserves to be considered in the same breadth as the Juddmonte superstar and the almighty that have ever raced.

Many pundits agree that only the distance can beat Camelot; i.e, he will win if he stays the 1m6f trip. The way he's won his races, I strongly believe that the extra 2 furlongs from the Derby trip will not cause him any problem. I have no stamina concerns for this son of Montjeu; he should have enough class to run the Doncaster classic fast. The field looks strong and even; here are my views on the other contenders.

Dartford - pacemaker, no chance.

Encke is the Godolphin representative. He looks better suited for the mile and a half, and has not shown enough to be a leading contender here. He will be flattered by a place spot at best.

Guarantee is a winner of 3 out of 4 races from the Highclere connections. This is a big step up in class for this distance winner but it would not be surprising if he got into the placings. If one is looking for a Place long-shot, he's the one, but it's hard to see him past Camelot if the latter runs his race.

Main Sequence is one that the market fancies a lot, but which is a lay for me. He came out second in the Derby and is inferior to Camelot. Given his pedigree, I have strong reservations he's going to last the distance. The layers should pounce on it.

Michelangelo will be ridden by Dettori after being out-preferred by Buick. I believe he's the horse that can cause an upset. He's clearly a progressive high-class colt that will get better with time. He came out a disappointing third in his last race at Goodwood, deterred by the undulations of the course, according to his trainer. After Camelot, he looks to be the best talented horse in the race. I think he's a live Place chance.

From what he's shown so far, Thomas Chippendale is not sure to last the distance. I think he's several pounds behind many of the contenders and will be flattered to be in the first 4 here.

Thoughtworthy, John Gosden's main string, is the full-brother to Lucarno who won this race a few years ago. Distance should not be a problem. He won the Great Volitgeur stakes, the main trial for this race, beating a few of his challengers quite impressively. He must be considered in any exotic, but I personally don't think he'll win.

Ursa Major comes from the Irish shores having won the Irish St Leger trial and will not start beaten. He's not entitled to get the soft conditions on which he's always run on turf. He will have no problem distance-wise but it remains to be seen how much class he's got. The dark horse of the race.

His connections look quietly bullish, his jockey seems level-headed and accomplished enough not to be taken by the stakes at hand. Camelot is no ordinary horse. The conditions look set for him to stamp his name among the all-time greats. It will take an exceptional horse to beat him on Saturday. I don't think there is one besides him in the race, so I think he will win. For the places, Michelangelo looks value at current odds.

Win: Camelot
Place: Michelangelo

Nassau Stakes 2012

Frankel is a machine, a money machine. His odds might be prohibitive but at least there is the certainty of a return. The exotics with Farhh was certainly very forthcoming. Like the handicappers are saying, Frankel won't improve his 140-rating until he moves to ten furlongs. That's where everyone wants to see him run, against the likes of Cirrus des Aigles and Nathaniel. Game on.

Glorious Goodwood closes on Saturday with the Nassau Stakes being the main attraction. To my mind, the best ten furlong filly in training today is Izzi Top from the John Gosden stable and I think she'll be tough to beat in the Group 1 race. She's undefeated in 3 races this year and is the clear form pick of the race. The Fugue and Nahrain seem to be her main opponents, but if she's on song, the Pivotal filly is certain to be in the first 3. Izzi Top as an each-way looks the certainty of the week-end, and it might be worth going all out for her win.


Win: Izzi Top
Each-way: Izzi Top

Brigadier duel

As we approach this year's Derby, it is apt to remember last year's favourite at Epsom was the Queen's horse Carlton House, who finished a honourable third behind Pour Moi. The son of Street Cry makes his seasonal appearance after nearly a year on the sidelines in the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes. I am a little bit surprised that he will not go to the Coronation Cup over the week-end but maybe the connections want a gentler start to his 4-year old campaign.

Tomorrow's race is really between Carlton House and Colombian, who made an impressive return a month ago, winning over 6 lengths and relegating Twice Over to nearly 9 lengths. Any representative from the John Gosden yard is to be respected at this level, and should Carlton House not be full wound-up or fit, Colombian looks prime to take the spoils.

I recommend Carlton House as an each-way, and Colombian as a Place.

Each-way: Carlton House

Place: Colombian

Glorious Goodwood

Nathaniel came and won in a King George that will probably be remembered for the breaking down of Rewilding more than anything else. Some things transpired from this race.

That Nathaniel is a very good progressive racehorse that can mix it up with some of the best middle-distance horses. He validated his connections' bold move to supplement him in the race. As I was mentioning, John Gosden knows what he's doing. But Nathaniel's current 5/1 price for the Arc is way too short. The French horses won't give him such an easy race. At this price, he's a huge lay proposition in my opinion.

Workforce apparently got cut in one of his legs and drifted left-wards in the straight. How that affected his chances is up to debate. Something about the Ascot racecourse just does not go well with him. I would not discard him in the rest of his races because of this defeat. On his day, he can give the very best a run for their money; he's just proving to be a little inconsistent.

This race confirmed that St Nicholas Abbey is just not the superstar he's been billed out to be. A very good horse he is, but not a great one. He had no excuses in coming third. He should still be a threat at 12 furlong races, but on ability alone, any hope to his fans that he is the cream of the crop can be safely dismissed.

This week is all about the showdown between Frankel and Canford Cliffs in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood on Wednesday. On the first opening day tomorrow, Strong Suit and Delegator look poised to mount a big challenge in the Group 2 Lennox Stakes at 7 furlongs. The rather softish ground looks to be in favour of Strong Suit. Since his wind operation this term, the Rahy colt from the Hannon stable seems to have found his old form back and comes into the race with a strong 3rd in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat in France. The distance will suit and he looks sure to be among the finishers in this rather exposed field. I recommend him as an each-way punt.

Each-way: Strong Suit

Weekend preview

Field of Miracles won her race on Thursday at Kempton for a nice winning recommendation. The Gosden stable is on fire currently as it again won with Imperial Pippin at Newbury today, and is to be followed. Lots to look forward to this week-end in both football and racing.

The matches in the Premier League look quite competitive, and I can't really find any sure-fire bets. Even Chelsea is exposed when visiting West Brom, who've become a resurgent team under Roy Hodgson. There seems to be better value looking at the semi-final FA Cup match between the 2 Manchester teams. Man City will be massively disadvantaged with the loss of Carlos Tevez to injury. Their best player could have caused problems in the Utd defence. On the other hand, Man Utd are on a roll right now, and it's always been hard to stop them once they have that kind of momentum. The Red Devils have been overwhelming City in the last few years in the Premier League although that one could argue that City have ridden some hard luck in a few of those games. I don't put much emphasis on history but it's hard to go against Utd with the vein of form they are in. They should win or draw this match even without Wayne Rooney. I recommend them as draw-no-bet.

This was supposed to be THE Clasico game in La Liga which everyone had been looking forward to since the 5-0 drubbing of Madrid at the Nou Camp some months back. It turns out Saturday's Clasico has lost some of the luster because not only are Barcelona 8 points ahead, but there are 3 more Clasicos of higher importance to be played in the few weeks; the Copa del Rey final and the semi-final matches of the Champions League! So, tomorrow's league match has paled in significance given that even a Madrid win would probably still not have an impact on the championship race. The theory brewing in both of the managers' minds is how can they win tomorrow's game without giving much away in terms of tactics and strategy for the remaining 3 games. As a result, both teams are probably not going to be playing desperation football tomorrow. Madrid will certainly have more urgency since they haven't beaten their opponents in 6 seasons, and will feel tomorrow might be the time to do so. Losing however, will only aggravate the mental barrier they've trying to overcome against their arch-rivals. For this reason, Mourinho will try not to lose this game. If someone really needs to have a punt on this one, I would recommend Real Madrid as a draw-no-bet.

In Italy, I think Milan is a good draw-no-bet at home against Sampdoria. In the Bundesliga, I like Wolfsburg's and Borussia Dortmund's chances at home to St Pauli and Freiburg respectively, so they are good draw-no-bets.

In racing, it's the return of much-vaunted Frankel, the potential superstar for this Flat season. There was disappointment a couple of weeks ago when another much-talked-about star St Nicholas Abbey petered out on his seasonal debut at the Curragh. Hopefully for racing, Frankel won't disappoint. It's tough to gauge his chances on Saturday; the vibes from the Henry Cecil camp is that he's wintered well and in good form. However, the yard is hardly in form itself and has seen quite a few well-fancied representatives disappoint lately; Twice Over in the DWC, Bullet Train, Midsummer Fun, All Time among others, have been well-fancied but finished far from the podium. The main opposition I believe will come from Strong Suit from the Hannon yard that is starting to fire on all cylinders. He will like the fast ground and the fast pace that seems to be a given with the inclusion of Picture Editor as pacemaker. I like Strong Suit as a Place punt.

Place: Strong Suit
Draw-no-bet: Man Utd, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Wolfsburg, AC Milan

Kempton Thursday preview

The current Flat season is in full swing with the Craven meeting at Newmarket. The 3-year old prospects are being sharpened for the upcoming Classics, and it will be fascinating to see if some of them can confirm their juvenile form. Like every season, there are always one or two late bloomers (or backward types as they say) that show nothing in their first season but turn out to be stars one year later.

On Thursday, it's mainly in Kempton that I see some value; in the 19:15 race, Field of Miracles runs for the Gosden stable. This daughter of Galileo caught the eye in her only appearance last year when keeping on for fourth at Newmarket. The opposition looks very ordinary and the race seems right for her to nail on her season debut. With William Buick on board, the Gosden filly is bound to take all the beating and should be in the first 3; should she need to get rid of the cobwebs after the layoff, for safety she is recommended as a Place.

Place: Field of Miracles