Feels good to know that the 5 players I mentioned to make the cut did actually make it. Lee Westwood just scraped through at +3 (the cut). And Phil Mickelson will not play during the week-end after a horrific +11. As I was saying, the British Open and links golf is just not his thing. Tiger Woods is in great stalking position 4 shots off leader Snedeker. I am keen to see if we'll see the old Tiger of old over the week-end when he was nearly unbeatable when within striking distance.
Saturday is all about racing with the running of the King George and the Summer Mile at Ascot. Even though the distance might be on the sharp side, Carlton House will be very difficult to beat in the mile contest. He's clearly the best horse of the race and there are no world beaters among the rest. Questioning, the colt from the in-form Gosden stable looks to be the main threat. I definitely see Carlton House in the first 3, and unless he encounters traffic problems, he should win this.
The prestigious King George is the main 12-furlong contest of the summer and this year's edition looks terrific with the presence of some of the world's best horses at the distance. It is really an open race where there really isn't a standout leader. Here are my views of the starters.
Brown Panther - a longer distance would have suited better for last year's runner-up of the St Leger. He's a few pounds adrift of some of the other participants and will be lucky to be in the first 4.
Dunaden - also would have preferred a longer distance for this winner of the Melbourne Cup. Can aspire to a Place chance but will need a lot of luck in running to win.
Masked Marvel - winner of the St Leger but looks to be the stable second-string to Nathaniel. Dettori takes the ride but he looks to be more of a Group 2 horse. Still, all Montjeu's are dangerous at 12 furlongs and on a good day, could be among the placings.
Nathaniel - last year's winner and genuine Group 1 performer that was impressive when winning on his seasonal return in the Coral Eclipse a fortnight ago. However, I fear the bounce factor in him after such a short rest. Would have preferred at least one more week to recuperate. He might place but I don't think he'll win. At his current odds, he's a big lay for me, even though he comes from a yard that is banging winners at a tremendous rate.
Reliable Man - leading French raider who has good form across the channel and who came out 4th in the Prince of Wales stakes at Royal Ascot. The soft turf and venue won't be a problem for him but he will need a career best to win. I don't think he will be the one emerging victorious.
Robin Hood - no chance.
Sea Moon - a leading contender from the Sir Michael Stoute stable. Won both his races this year, the last one impressively in the Hardwicke Stakes. Connections don't look too confident but if he's at this best, he should be in the first 3.
St Nicholas Abbey - if he reproduces his form of the Breeders Cup or Coronation Cup, he should be at the finish. He is prone to deliver the odd clanker, which is why I don't have 100% confidence on the form he'll show. He's not to be dismissed at any means and the distance will suit him the best although he will be disadvantaged on a very soft track.
Danedream - the racing world is still waiting what Danedream is all about. She won last year's Arc in record time and looked unbeatable. She has since been beaten twice in 3 races. Who knows, maybe she's an October filly or maybe she's a one-race wonder. At her best, she could win this handily but I think the chances are that she won't reproduce her Arc form.
Deep Brillante - the Japanese Derby winner and dark horse of the race. I hugely respect her sire Deep Impact but I think she looks to be several pounds inferior to many of the contenders. Japanese do not have a great record in their European raids over the past years and I cannot see Deep Brillante bucking the trend.
The soft conditions are sure to be a deciding factor but it might be worth to chance on a Place with Sea Moon at current odds. Not a certainty though.
Win: Carlton House
Place: Sea Moon
Showing posts with label Lee Westwood. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lee Westwood. Show all posts
Friday, July 20, 2012
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
British Open 2012
As expected, David Haye was too strong for Chisora. I hope there is a second Battle of Britain between those two (as there usually is), because I think Haye would win again.
Surprise, surprise, yesterday's headline news saw one of Tour de France's favourites, Frank Schleck, leave the race because of a failed drug test. How credible is that tour, or any other tour for that matter? Cycling definitely will fit well at the Olympics, siege of rampant drug use. No Olympics is complete without a sensational drug scandal.
Tomorrow, the British Open takes centre of attention, and many pundits are talking about an ominous starting point for Tiger Woods to resume his Major quest after 4 barren years. It's amazing to think that it has been that long. Today's Tiger is not the same as the old dominating one, he's become unpredictable to say the least. But like most others, I'm sure there are more Majors in him, I just don't know if it will start at Royal Lytham this week-end.
This major is probably the most open there is, no pun intended. The weather and design of the link course play a crucial role. It will not be surprising that the big guns fail and that it goes to a novice Major winner. The last time in 2001, it gave David Duval his first and only Major.
So I believe the safest way to start the punting is to find a group of players that will make the cut on Saturday. If we can call that process relatively safe, I suppose. Unless they are bestowed with unbelievable foul weather or do not have their A game for the first 2 days, I believe the following are good value to make the cut (at least in first 70 of 156) at their current odds;
Tiger Woods - evidently.
Lee Westwood - he should make the cut, but I don't think he'll win it.
Ernie Els - will have gotten confidence from his US Open showing. Great links player. 3rd in 2001.
Jimenez - almost always in the thick of things. 5th in 2001. A little risk but with great reward.
Padraig Harrington - getting back to form after 4th at the US Open this year. Big-game player.
I would caution against the following ones that are prominent names in the market.
Rory McIlroy - his mind is probably more focused on the coming Olympics cheering Caroline Wozniak.
Mickelson - probably will make the cut, but the British Open has never been his thing.
Luke Donald - poor record in recent Majors. No 1 means nothing in these tournaments.
Surprise, surprise, yesterday's headline news saw one of Tour de France's favourites, Frank Schleck, leave the race because of a failed drug test. How credible is that tour, or any other tour for that matter? Cycling definitely will fit well at the Olympics, siege of rampant drug use. No Olympics is complete without a sensational drug scandal.
Tomorrow, the British Open takes centre of attention, and many pundits are talking about an ominous starting point for Tiger Woods to resume his Major quest after 4 barren years. It's amazing to think that it has been that long. Today's Tiger is not the same as the old dominating one, he's become unpredictable to say the least. But like most others, I'm sure there are more Majors in him, I just don't know if it will start at Royal Lytham this week-end.
This major is probably the most open there is, no pun intended. The weather and design of the link course play a crucial role. It will not be surprising that the big guns fail and that it goes to a novice Major winner. The last time in 2001, it gave David Duval his first and only Major.
So I believe the safest way to start the punting is to find a group of players that will make the cut on Saturday. If we can call that process relatively safe, I suppose. Unless they are bestowed with unbelievable foul weather or do not have their A game for the first 2 days, I believe the following are good value to make the cut (at least in first 70 of 156) at their current odds;
Tiger Woods - evidently.
Lee Westwood - he should make the cut, but I don't think he'll win it.
Ernie Els - will have gotten confidence from his US Open showing. Great links player. 3rd in 2001.
Jimenez - almost always in the thick of things. 5th in 2001. A little risk but with great reward.
Padraig Harrington - getting back to form after 4th at the US Open this year. Big-game player.
I would caution against the following ones that are prominent names in the market.
Rory McIlroy - his mind is probably more focused on the coming Olympics cheering Caroline Wozniak.
Mickelson - probably will make the cut, but the British Open has never been his thing.
Luke Donald - poor record in recent Majors. No 1 means nothing in these tournaments.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Flip Flops
The football form was good over the week-end, with 5 selections out of 6 hitting the target, but the golf prediction on Tiger and Rory was a helluva-wayward shot to say the least. Both finished with a dismal +5, far from the Top 10.
What else to say in EPL? City have blown it big time. Alex Ferguson is an unparalleled genius. Man City's money cannot buy what Man Utd have; their manager, their heritage and their instilled desire to win. This 20th title (who can doubt it's not a done deal) will feel super sweet for the Red Devils, that's for sure.
What a turn around of events between La Liga and EPL. A few weeks ago, it looked like Real Madrid was cruising easily to the title in Spain, while the Manchester teams were battling it out to the wire in England. Suddenly, Man Utd have killed off the rest of the pack in a quick and decisive fashion, while Real's 10-point lead has frittered to the point where they have Barcelona smelling blood. A four point advantage is still consequential, but Guardiola is fooling no-one by saying that his team's chances to go top is near-impossible. Real are still masters of their destiny and should win this, but one more faux-pas and Barcelona will be the ones to enjoy all favouritism come the Clasico in a few weeks time.
In a few hours, Barcelona should cut the gap to just 1 point when they host Getafe. They should win this game no problem.
So what to make of the Tiger and Rory flops in the Masters? They both had a good opening round on Thursday and then it all went downhill from there. Maybe Tiger still needs have to work on a few more things and that the Augusta Major came a little too soon since his win just a couple of weeks back. Maybe Rory shouldn't have taken 3 weeks off, and would have been better off with a prep tourney a week before the tournament? Just maybe's. But I felt Lee Westwood was the one to feel that this was one he should have won. He was the best at hitting fairways but just couldn't get hot on the putter. The fact that he putted 21 times more than Phil Mickelson, yet still finishing with the same score, and only 2 shots off the winner, says it all. It wouldn't be surprising if Westwood captured his first Major (finally) soon.
Win: Barcelona
What else to say in EPL? City have blown it big time. Alex Ferguson is an unparalleled genius. Man City's money cannot buy what Man Utd have; their manager, their heritage and their instilled desire to win. This 20th title (who can doubt it's not a done deal) will feel super sweet for the Red Devils, that's for sure.
What a turn around of events between La Liga and EPL. A few weeks ago, it looked like Real Madrid was cruising easily to the title in Spain, while the Manchester teams were battling it out to the wire in England. Suddenly, Man Utd have killed off the rest of the pack in a quick and decisive fashion, while Real's 10-point lead has frittered to the point where they have Barcelona smelling blood. A four point advantage is still consequential, but Guardiola is fooling no-one by saying that his team's chances to go top is near-impossible. Real are still masters of their destiny and should win this, but one more faux-pas and Barcelona will be the ones to enjoy all favouritism come the Clasico in a few weeks time.
In a few hours, Barcelona should cut the gap to just 1 point when they host Getafe. They should win this game no problem.
So what to make of the Tiger and Rory flops in the Masters? They both had a good opening round on Thursday and then it all went downhill from there. Maybe Tiger still needs have to work on a few more things and that the Augusta Major came a little too soon since his win just a couple of weeks back. Maybe Rory shouldn't have taken 3 weeks off, and would have been better off with a prep tourney a week before the tournament? Just maybe's. But I felt Lee Westwood was the one to feel that this was one he should have won. He was the best at hitting fairways but just couldn't get hot on the putter. The fact that he putted 21 times more than Phil Mickelson, yet still finishing with the same score, and only 2 shots off the winner, says it all. It wouldn't be surprising if Westwood captured his first Major (finally) soon.
Win: Barcelona
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