Royal Ascot - Day 2 Prince of Wales' Stakes

I can think of only 5 names to retain in Wednesday's feature race, the Prince of Wales' Stakes at 10 furlongs; Al Kazeem, Camelot, The Fugue and the 2 French raiders Maxios and Saint Baudolino. I believe the winner should come out of that lot.

Al Kazeem is the favourite of the race and if he has retained the form that saw him beat Camelot last time, I think he will be a big player. He's only been outside of the placings once in 10 outings, and that happened on his racing debut and on soft ground. He will be getting his preferred good ground on Tuesday and the way he mastered Camelot at the Curragh a few weeks ago shows his mettle as a genuine Group 1 runner and one of the best middle-distance horses around.

Camelot disappointed when beaten to Al Kazeem and it remains to be seen if he's still the same horse after his surgery during the winter. I still believe that his best distance is 12 furlongs, being a son of Montjeu. It's hard to see him reverse the form against Roger Charlton's colt.

I rate The Fugue as a top filly but I have doubts of her winning on Wednesday after more than 200 days of layoff. Her stablemate Elusive Kate floundered in the latter parts of the Queen Anne Stakes after a similar lengthy spell on the sidelines, possibly due to a lack of fitness. There isn't much confidence in backing her with the lack of a prep run.

Maxios has been a revelation in France this year having notched 2 wins and a second place out of 3 top races. It seems that trainer Jonathan's Pease has found the solution to the 5-year old half-brother of Bago after a rather start-stop career to date. Maxios needs plenty of rain to be at his most effective but it does not seem that there will be plenty or any of that in the weather forecasts. He's got to be considered if it starts pouring on the day.

Saint Baudolino can never be counted out as the son of Pivotal is blessed with a smart turn of foot that can help him make the difference against this field on his best day. This lightly raced colt is the dark horse of the race as he's very unexposed. It remains to be seen how his transfer from Fabre to Godolphin has panned out because many of similar transfers have ended up in rather catastrophic fashion. It would not be surprising if the mount of Barzalona snatched up a place.

All roads seem to be going back to Al Kazeem in this one. He almost never runs a bad race and if he is true to form, he should be very close at the finish. I cannot see him out of the first 3, and he looks a good value Win selection.

Win: Al Kazeem

Toronado to be followed by Dawn Approach

This week-end is all about Flat racing with the first Classics in Britain being held at Newmarket and the Kentucky Derby looking a wide-open affair at Churchill Downs.

There are only 2 names to remember for the 2000 Guineas; Toronado and Dawn Approach. The winner will come out of the two, and the loser will very possibly make the first 3. Not so long ago, Richard Hughes was claiming that Canford Cliffs was the best he'd ridden. He now thinks that Toronado is on par or potentially  better than CC. That's a big statement. The unbeaten son of High Chaparral won the Craven impressively. He's got the cobwebs out of that run. His connections think he's in the form of his life. The same connections won the 2000 Guineas 4 times and recently placed with CC, Dick Turpin and Dubawi Gold. So, they know how to prepare the horse for the race. Distance will not be a problem. Bar an accident, I cannot see Toronado out of the first 2. In fact, I think he will win.

Dawn Approach is the unbeaten son of New Approach. He's won all his 5 races like his sire, as a juvenile. New Approach was heavy favourite for the Guineas but found Henrythenavigator a head too good in the 2009 Classic. It could be a bis repetita scenario for his son as well. Trainer Jim Bolger has never won the Guineas, but that doesn't mean that he cannot prepare them right for the occasion. He's placed recently with New Approach, as well as Gan Amhras. He couldn't have better words for NA leading to the race; his preparation has been ideal with no hiccups and he has gotten the expected improvement from the horse to be a leading player this year. Very encouraging words which make me think that NA towers over the rest of the field, bar Toronado.

From the rest, Aidan's O'Brien's horses always run well in the Classic, even without a prep run. He won it with Camelot last year and he definitely knows how to get them a winning chance in the race. Whichever of George Vancouver, Mars or Christoforo Colombo should be the best of the rest.

I have hardly any doubt it will be between Toronado and Dawn Approach. Where Toronado edges it for me is his advantage of having had a prep run. Also, there looks to be pace in the race which will better suit the Hannon colt. Dawn Approach should follow him home.

The 1000 Guineas looks a wide open affair but I feel French raider What a Name could spoil the local party. She's definitely a very talented daughter of Mr Greeley and the mile will be right up her alley. The vibes are very positive from her yard after her convincing seasonal re-appearance win in the Prix Imprudence. She is a Place selection.

In the US, the Run for the Roses looks a very competitive one. Much of it will depend on the conditions of the race and any hard-luck for the horses to weave their way through a 20-horse field. Orb is the slight favourite and if he does not suffer from a horror trip, he should be a leading player. I'll stand on the sidelines on this one but any exotic punt needs to have Orb in there.


Win: Toronado
Place: Dawn Approach, What a Name

Rogues and cheats

Amidst the fabulous semi-finals of Champions League football and Sprinter Sacre spectable in racing at Punchestown, two bombshells hit the headlines in these sports for the past week; yet-another scandal involving Luis Suarez, and the Al Zarooni drug shame.

The long list of mis-demeanors of Liverpool's Suarez is well-documented; biting at an opponent during his Ajax days, racial abuse towards Man Utd's Evra, refusal to shake hands with the latter in a later game, numerous diving incidents, and the deliberate hand-ball at the goal line against Ghana during a World Cup game. I am less inclined to fault him for that latter obstruction as it was really a reflex to stop being scored against. But his latest chewing at the expense of Chelsea's Ivanovic is less forgivable. It is a case of repeatable barbaric offence which, in my mind, deserves an unconditional heavy punishment. Ten games and Liverpool are sulking? Common, I think he deserves half the season on the sidelines. Let him consider his future in English football; in fact, I think the EPL would be better without his antics. His football skills are evident, but mentally there is definitely something amiss. How much more human meat he needs to chew before Liverpool decide that enough is enough?

The Al Zarooni saga is still unfolding, so not all the elements are pieced together yet before all questions can be clearly answered. It is quite hard to accept his reasoning that he did not know the rules about steroid use in UK racing. I mean, of the past 7 years, there have been 3 drug violations that have been detected; 2 of them were from Al Zarooni himself, for usage of forbidden pain-killers on his horses. It seems unfathomable that had that been naivety of his part back then, that he wouldn't have consulted the drug policies regarding harder drugs like anabolic steroids. His excuse of not knowing the rules does not hold much water. Unlike Suarez, his career is over. It looks to be the case of the young ambitious trainer who had his chance, took it and then blew it. What remains are pertinent questions that hopefully will be answered in the next days, but possibly many others won't be answered; For example, what to make of his successes at the highest level during the past 3 years? Was Monterosso juiced in winning the Dubai World Cup in 2012? He did surprise many by his decisive win on that day. Was Rewilding a worthy winner at Royal Ascot when gunning down heavy favourite So You Think? Many thought, including I, that the Ballydoyle colt was unbeatable that day, which prompted shell-shocked trainer O'Brien to advance that he hadn't prepared the colt adequately. How about Encke foiling Camelot's triple crown bid in the St Leger last year? Pounds, as well as dreams, were shed by many on that Classic, and they could very well have been for the wrong reasons if the Godolphin representative benefited from an illegal boost on the occasion.

Unlike some, I think that Godolphin will survive this. They are too huge to go under, just like the saying in the financial world, where there are banks that are too big to fail. There's every chance that Suarez will continue his controversial path and find something up his sleeve when he comes back. It just wouldn't shock anyone anymore. On further thoughts, maybe it could still shock, you never know with Suarez.

Week-end football and racing

The Flat season has started its post-Frankel era since a couple of weeks. No doubt that the mega-star of the past few years will be missed, but this is racing; one goes and there is hope that another gem arises, although it will be tough to surpass Frankel. But just a few years ago, everyone seemed to think that we'd never see the likes of Sea The Stars again, yet the son of Galileo appeared and the rest, they say, is history.

Black Caviar surprisingly left for the paddocks as well earlier this week and so racing has lost its 2 brightest stars. Among the juvenile brigade, there are a few that have shown potential and might emerge with promise; Dawn Approach and Toronado are certainly at the fore-fronts of all minds ahead of the coming Guineas. Among the older brigade, Camelot oozes enigma, and expectations will be high on the son of Montjeu to vindicate claims from his trainer that he's the best horse ever to come out of  Ballydoyle.

Then, Sea The Stars has his first 2-year olds running this year. I personally believe he will become a terrific sire; whether as good or better than his half-brother Galileo, it's difficult to pronounce, but he's definitely got the pedigree and breeder support to make a great stallion. We'll have to wait and let his sons and daughters do the talking. Lots to look forward indeed.

On Saturday, Noble Mission, makes his season appearance at Newbury. It looks to be all systems go for the Frankel's half-brother. The distance will suit and he's clearly got the best form from last year, among the runners. He will definitely be in the top 2, but is worth a punt as an outright Win at current odds.

The Group 3 Greenham Stakes at 15.30 looks to be a race between Hannon's Olympic Glory and Botti's Moohajim. Both yards are in good form but I give a small advantage to the Hannon horse at the seven furlong distance. He's a Win selection as well.

In football, I like Norwich as a Win against sorry Reading. This should put the Canaries at ease in the relegation fight. I think Wigan will sneak something out of their trip to West Ham. They showed good spirit in their loss at Man City and they definitely can match the Hammers. Wigan is a draw-no-bet selection.


Win: Noble Mission, Olympic Glory, Norwich
Draw-no-bet: Wigan

Glorious in defeat

From a punting viewpoint, the Arc delivered aplenty with Orfevre easily hitting the Placings at unbelievably generous odds of 3/1. Obviously, from a sporting position, like many others, I would have loved it if he won it all. The race can be replayed time and again and how he lost the race would still be beyond anyone's comprehension. The start of the last straight was a sight to behold as he effortlessly stormed past some of the best middle-distance horses Europe had on offer. I was thinking of another demolition a la Danedream. Better, I was thinking that Frankel was right to stay home. Almost immediately, it unfolded into a nightmare as he idled and hit the rails as Solemia caught him on. World beater turned unlucky second.

Solemia ran the race of the life and deserves more credit than what she's getting, even though it will always be more the race that Orfevre lost and not the race she won. What he showed was he is a genius, albeit a flawed genius. If I hinted Camelot was, on talent, the best horse going in the race, I was wrong. Orfevre will destroy this field anytime if he finds a way to settle on these quirks. What a run from the impossible post position of 18 on a heavy sticky ground he'd never run before. I cannot see how his rider Soumillon can be faulted. He rode the perfect copybook race; he had the whip in the right hand in the straight. His ride deviated and idled through no fault of his.

Rarely does a horse come out of a lost race with his reputation enhanced. Orfevre is now a name that will warrant attention, not only within the shores of Japan. It looks improbable but Soumillon got tongues wagging when he mentioned an encounter with Frankel on British Champions Day. Frankel, Cirrus des Aigles, Orfevre. That would be something. What was interesting, if not intriguing, is Soumillon's assessment in the aftermath of Sunday's defeat that Orfevre was the best horse he'd ever ridden. Whether said in the heat of the moment or not, but it gives a reference point to Orfevre's exceptional talent; better than Dalakhani, better than Zarkava? On Sunday, we got oh-so-close to the realm of fantasy land.

Camelot, meet Orfevre

My favourite race of the year: the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in Longchamp is my idea of the greatest race in the world. The legends of the turf have won it and the best horse almost always wins it.

This year's race has been marred by late defections of some leading fancies; title holder Danedream tragically won't be there through no fault of her own, Nathaniel spiked a fever at an unfortunate time, Snow Fairy is out of the season injured. And the mighty Frankel (or more so his connections) opted not to venture on the stamina-sapping 12 furlongs;

The race will still regroup some high-caliber horses, 4 of which seem clear-cut above the rest; Camelot, Orfevre, Saonois and Shareta. I don't think the winner will be outside this quartet.

Camelot failed to win the Triple Crown although he did finish a honourable second in the St Leger. Whether he is the super horse billed by his connections, remains to be seen. His defeat somewhat lowered his colors and reputation that was made of him. He's still a high-class horse that has won the Epsom and Irish Derbies, not forgetting the 2000 Guineas. He is the best 3-year old of the race. There are a lot of positives going for him. He will be ridden by Dettori, he will have a weight allowance against the older generation, and he's by super 12-furlong-sire Montjeu. The only issue I see is how well he's recuperated from his St Leger exertions. It is commonly acknowledged that the great Nijinski got beaten in the Arc because he was still feeling the ill-effects of the Doncaster Classic. There are only 3 weeks separating the 2 races and there is no doubt that the small recuperation time can be taxing, particularly when facing a strong Arc contingent. This is the question mark regarding Camelot; how fit and rested will he be for the race? If he is 100%, he will win orelse he'll be in the placings.

Orfevre, Japanese superstar, maybe not on the same level as Deep Impact, but the best to grace Longchamp since the Sunday Silence wonder horse. He won this trial when not fully wound up a few weeks ago and indications are that he's improved a bunch and will be in top form. He's clearly class, he will be ridden by Soumillon and distance will suit. He looks prime to run a huge race. He should be in the first 3, like Camelot.

Saonois is the best French 3-year old and winner of the French Derby. He was impressive in winning the Prix Niel, considered the main trial for the Arc. He produced an instant acceleration in the last metres of the race after having been held boxed in the straight. Not many other horses would have been able to do that. Saonois must be respected as many French 3-year old colts have shown their mettle in the race over the years.

Shareta is the best remaining filly in the race after the defections of Snow Fairy and Danedream. She was a surprise second last year and she seems even better this year. She won the Prix Vermeille in good style and any reproduction of that form should see her play a major role. She has got a great cruising speed and her ability to stay close to the pace could put her in clear daylight in the straight and not be reached . If she's on song, she could strike strike big for the Aga Khan.

I think Camelot and Orfevre have to be in any trifecta. This could be the day that Japan finally lands the race that it wants most to win. It won the Dubai World Cup, it won the Melbourne Cup, but this is the trophy that it really wants; for prestige, for the record books and posterity. I don't know if it will happen, but I sure will be rooting for Orfevre to achieve what no other Japanese horse has done in the history of the race. May the Sun rise on Arc Day!


Place: Camelot, Orfevre

Clutch and Choke

A week-end with some freakish results with Arsenal, Man Utd and QPR all gunned down at home. Sunderland, Real and Stoke won as expected and Fulham's +1 handicap was good for void in their brave 2-1 defeat against Man City.

The headlines of the week-end were without doubt the Miracle at Medinah Chicago where the European Ryder Cup team produced the greatest come-back ever on Sunday in defeating the US team and thereby retaining the Cup. What sweet revenge it was for Europe, especially team captain Olazabal, as it washed away the tears of Brookline 1999 when the US produced a come-back of their own amidst displays of unsportsmanlike conduct to win the Cup. What an amazing clutch player Europe has found in Ian Poulter who won all his 4 matches and started the inspiration for his teammates late Saturday when he birdied the last 5 holes of his foursome match to give an almost-out Europe some glimmer of hope. The US choked on the final day but it is really a case of the Europeans being the best whenever they are playing their best. I was saying in my previous blog that this European team had nothing to envy from their US counterparts; namely because on an individual basis, they are really better, more talented and more driven.

The countdown to this week is all about the Arc on Sunday and the organizers must be going nuts at the moment. Nathaniel has fallen sick and won't be going. Danedream as well will miss defending her title as she's suddenly stuck in quarantine following a disease outbreak at her stay in Cologne. Talk about freakish timing. Add to this the absence of Snow Fairy, Valyra, Frankel and others and you think that this year's race will be devoid of many of the world's best middle-distance runners. But it becomes great from a punting point of view, I think. At this point, my sight is set on the Japanese superstar Orfevre, the impressive Vermeille winner Shareta, and should he start, Camelot. It could be that other connections decide to supplement their horses in light of so many high-profile defects, we'll see.

Tonight's games in the Champions League look tight. I think Man Utd are in for a rude travel to Cluj. They might still win it because of their potent offense but they are very liable to concede goals with their porous defence. Anytime Johnny Evans is starting with Rio Ferdinand, you can expect some torrid moments in the Utd penalty area, as Tottenham showed over the week-end.

Chelsea should win at Nordsjaellan in Denmark, they are a confident Win selection. Galatasaray will also look to bag all 3 points at home to Poruguese Braga. The hosts should win this. I also like Valencia's chances against France's Lille. It looks worth to go for a straight Valencia win as well here.

Win: Chelsea, Valencia, Galatasaray

Black-type performers

Fantastic week-end of sports that was. Liverpool were lucky to draw with Sunderland while Stoke's +1 Handicap against Man City proved a nice winner. In racing, were in not for the exploits of outsider Encke, Camelot and Michelangelo would have provided with a very good return. As it is, Camelot did not win but a Placed Michelangelo was good enough to bring the bacon home.

It was an exquisite week-end of racing really. Godolphin again played the spoils to the ambitions of Coolmore by denying Camelot of the Triple Crown. The son of Montjeu stayed on but just lacked the finishing kick to reach his conqueror at the finish. It was another big-race win for jockey Barzalona who seems to have a knack of landing big-money races and Classics. It will be interesting if Camelot is given the green light for the Arc.

Speaking of the prestigious race, Orfevre, the Japanese superstar labored to win the Prix Foy, one of the major prep races. While many were left disappointed with his workmanlike win, he did beat a high-class colt in Meandre. It was also his first race after a long layoff. I think he's a genuine Arc contender; whether he wins it or not will depend on a load of factors. But he certainly looks the most talented Japanese representative after Deep Impact.

Shareta won the Prix Vermeille impressively by dispatching a high-class field and on that form, must be given a leading chance for the October show-piece. She came out second last year to Danedream and she seems to be hitting top form at the right moment again. She is definitely the best representative from the Aga Khan contingent.

Moonlight Cloud beat Farrh in the Prix Moulin. Freddy Head's filly is just an a tough sort that runs her heart out every time. She might be the only lateral link between Frankel and Black Caviar! She came a head off second to the Australian superstar at Royal Ascot, but beat Farrh in turn who's been trounced many lengths a couple of times by Frankel. I cannot wait for the next run from the French filly because she's among the best from 6 furlongs to a mile.

The Woodbine Mile on Canadian soil saw Wise Dan from the US stroll to a comfortable win over some good European sorts such as Cityscape. Obviously, it is widely agreed that Europeans are better than the US-trained ones on turf but this son of Wiseman Ferry could prove to be the exception come the Breeders Cup Mile in November. Wise Dan is by far the best miler from the US and unless Excelebration or Moonlight Cloud make the trip to Santa Anita, the race could be a shoe-in for the US champion.

This week is all about the 1st round of the Champions League and there are quite a few interesting match-ups on the go. I'll get to some previews tomorrow.

St Leger 2012 Preview

This week-end looks loaded, the highlight of which might be the history-in-the-making of Camelot who will attempt to complete the Triple Crown of British racing. In any ordinary year, this would have been the major talking point of the racing community and unbeaten Ballydoyle superstar would have drawn comparisons with the greatest to have graced the turf, among the likes of Nijinski, Mill Reef and Brigadier Gerard. But understandably, with his spectacular exploits, it is Frankel who's magnetized public hearts. A victory on Saturday will give some credence to his growing legion of fans that he deserves to be considered in the same breadth as the Juddmonte superstar and the almighty that have ever raced.

Many pundits agree that only the distance can beat Camelot; i.e, he will win if he stays the 1m6f trip. The way he's won his races, I strongly believe that the extra 2 furlongs from the Derby trip will not cause him any problem. I have no stamina concerns for this son of Montjeu; he should have enough class to run the Doncaster classic fast. The field looks strong and even; here are my views on the other contenders.

Dartford - pacemaker, no chance.

Encke is the Godolphin representative. He looks better suited for the mile and a half, and has not shown enough to be a leading contender here. He will be flattered by a place spot at best.

Guarantee is a winner of 3 out of 4 races from the Highclere connections. This is a big step up in class for this distance winner but it would not be surprising if he got into the placings. If one is looking for a Place long-shot, he's the one, but it's hard to see him past Camelot if the latter runs his race.

Main Sequence is one that the market fancies a lot, but which is a lay for me. He came out second in the Derby and is inferior to Camelot. Given his pedigree, I have strong reservations he's going to last the distance. The layers should pounce on it.

Michelangelo will be ridden by Dettori after being out-preferred by Buick. I believe he's the horse that can cause an upset. He's clearly a progressive high-class colt that will get better with time. He came out a disappointing third in his last race at Goodwood, deterred by the undulations of the course, according to his trainer. After Camelot, he looks to be the best talented horse in the race. I think he's a live Place chance.

From what he's shown so far, Thomas Chippendale is not sure to last the distance. I think he's several pounds behind many of the contenders and will be flattered to be in the first 4 here.

Thoughtworthy, John Gosden's main string, is the full-brother to Lucarno who won this race a few years ago. Distance should not be a problem. He won the Great Volitgeur stakes, the main trial for this race, beating a few of his challengers quite impressively. He must be considered in any exotic, but I personally don't think he'll win.

Ursa Major comes from the Irish shores having won the Irish St Leger trial and will not start beaten. He's not entitled to get the soft conditions on which he's always run on turf. He will have no problem distance-wise but it remains to be seen how much class he's got. The dark horse of the race.

His connections look quietly bullish, his jockey seems level-headed and accomplished enough not to be taken by the stakes at hand. Camelot is no ordinary horse. The conditions look set for him to stamp his name among the all-time greats. It will take an exceptional horse to beat him on Saturday. I don't think there is one besides him in the race, so I think he will win. For the places, Michelangelo looks value at current odds.

Win: Camelot
Place: Michelangelo

In dominant mood

It was a relatively quiet week-end with the domestic leagues giving way to the world cup qualifiers until next week-end. A few events of note however in the varied world of sports.

Snow Fairy winning the Irish Champion Stakes. What an amazing filly she is, and she could very well surpass Ouija Board as Ed Dunlop's best filly. She's won  in UK, Ireland, Japan and Hong Kong, and I would not be surprised if she added France to her conquests when she tackles the Arc in a few weeks time. She's all heart and if I am to truly rate this filly, I only have to look at the 2 races she faced So You Think. In last year's edition of the same Irish Champion Stakes, she was second, only a length behind the Coolmore superstar. In the Arc, she was this time a length in front, although SYT was not given a judicious ride. So in my books, she is weighted a length or two behind the High Chaparral beast, which puts her in a league of only a select few. If Camelot does not make it to the Arc, Snow Fairy must be given a leading chance.

Speaking of Camelot, he looks all set for his big day in destiny on Saturday for the St Leger. It would be great if he makes history, not least for the reason that it would be great for me to witness a Triple Crown in my time. With the way commercial breeding is going, this looks to be a once in a lifetime occurrence, and the Coolmore people need to be lauded for taking this route.

Then, there was Rory Mc Ilroy's win in the BMW Championship, his 3rd title in his last 4 outings. Definitely Rory is back, and he's thrashed Tiger Woods (and the rest) on each occasion. Rory is simply the best golfer in the world at the moment and could remain so if Tiger does not get his mojo back. Rory has a winning chance each time he gets on a tournament, something that was said of Tiger years ago.

Tonight is the US Open final between Djokovic and Murray. Clearly the 2 best players in the world today, with the injury to Nadal. The head says Nole, and the heart says Murray, as I would like the Scot to get the monkey off his back regarding Majors. Djokovic looks strong and definitely knows how to tackle such finals. No recommendation on this one, but I cannot see any wrong punting for the Serb to win.

Countdown to the St Leger

Fantastic week-end it was with mostly everything on target, with a couple of voided draw-no-bets. The big one came at Anfield where the Gunners did what was expected of them to beat a sorry Liverpool side. Man City, Man Utd, Real Madrid all won and Atletico Madrid pounded on Chelsea in the Super Cup on Friday. Tottenham and Newcastle snatched draws for voids.

Radamel Falcao, what a striker. He always scores in a final; I actually can't recall a final in which he hasn't scored. Fantastic finisher, one that Chelsea will rue to have missed during the transfer season. He will cost a lot in January. One team that probably won't look for his services is Man Utd. They are loaded in that department and their new recruit RVP got his own superb hat-trick against the Saints on Sunday. The fact that he scored 2 brilliant goals after missing a penalty in the last third of the game, shows that he's got mettle. With the services from Utd's awesome wingers, RVP is certainly an early favourite for best EPL scorer again this year.

Christiano Ronaldo, what do you call something worse than a prima donna? The supremely-talented but moody spoiled brat came up with his bombshell "sad" state of affairs that has everyone speculating what is the professional reason for his self-evoked sadness. Money it isn't, he denies. It's very hard to think otherwise. He knows his tantrums will make the headlines and whatever the reason, this guy has redefined the word prima donna. The second-best player in the world, but too manipulative and no class. His late antics show why people prefer Messi.

 Finally, in racing, the run down to this week culminates to the last Classic of the season, the St Leger. Will Camelot do the Triple Crown? All indications from connections is that he's spot on. In his words, Aidan O'Brien says his superstar is the most incredible horse he's trained. What does that mean? Is he the best? Better than Galileo, So You Think, High Chaparral? As usual, there's nothing precise in his words. Didn't he say that he thought highly of St Nicholas Abbey that he could "walk on water", so to speak? i.e, do incredible things. Now Frankel is the closest thing to that, but not St Nick Abbey, from what we've seen.

What is for certain is that Camelot is really good, and looking at his opponents at this time, it looks like his path to immortality will only be thwarted by the Gosden stable, who've actually won the last 2 editions of the race. His colt Michaelangelo looks the main danger. I'll get to the review in due time, but that's my feeling at the moment.

A week-end of Champions

As a precursor to the upcoming London Olympic games, England was centre-stage to some fantastic sports headlines over the week-end.

The King George promised a lot and delivered in spectacular fashion as Danedream edged out Nathaniel by a nostril at the end. Both horses come out of this race with highly-enhanced reputations. The German filly has now the Arc and the King George on her resume and must be considered one of the best to come out of German racing. I cannot wait for her to defend her Arc title in October where she might lock horns with a certain Camelot. Very enticing indeed.

I cannot but be impressed with Nathaniel. Considering he won a hard race only a fortnight ago and to come up to that short, he showed he had both talent and a heart. He's a champion and deserves every respect whenever he steps out again. This horse is one of the 3 best middle-distance runners in training today.

Still in racing, Carlton House failed to fire in the Summer Mile. I think the mile is too sharp for the son of Street Cry. Nine or ten furlongs is his distance.

Then, there was the British Open, without doubt the best feel-good news of the week-end and of recent months; Ernie Els win and 4th Major of his career. In a previous post, I mentioned that he did well at Royal Lytham before and was great value to make the cut. He did easily but little did I think that he would win the whole thing. Just like many many others, I am a huge fan for Ernie Els because he's such a class act. He does not need the fist-pump, he's as humble as you can get, and Sunday's win showed the respect for he beholds for this opponents, like unlucky runner-up Adam Scott. Also, like many others, I did not think he would win another Major as I thought his best years were behind him. But it is fantastic that he did, and the better for golf if he wins more. Golf needs such class characters.

Finally, Brad Wiggins became the first Briton to win the Tour de France. I hope for the nation that he never gets his name embroiled into a doping scandal. With today's cycling, it's something that one can never ascertain anymore.

No contest

Although he clearly hated the heavy ground, Camelot was too classy for his over-matched rivals and won the Irish Derby by a rather cozy 2 lengths. Next stop for the son of Montjeu hopefully will be the St Leger where he should take all the beating again. The English Triple Crown looks to be a real possibility this year. Hats of to Ballydoyle and Coolmore if Camelot attempts it because achieving it is not the best path to commercial success in the bloodstock world.

Spain thrashed Italy in the Euros to enhance their legacy among the world's greatest ever sides. Are they the best of all time? They certainly have the results to prove it as World Cup champions and double European Cup winners. I cannot recall in my time any other side that has achieved such kind of feat. What amazes me with the Spain squad is their midfield. I mean, Iniesta, Xavi, Fabregas, Mata, Silva are some of the best midfielders in the world and yet will never all fit in the starting eleven. My only regret during those Euros is that they did not get to meet Germany in the final. That would have been something as disregarding the blip against Italy, the ever-improving Germans look the stronger of the rest in Europe. I hope this Spanish squad meets Brazil, Argentina or Germany at some point in the next World Cup because a win against those will really cement their greatness.

The battle to get in the final at Wimbledon pits Novak Djokovic against Roger Federer in one semi-final. At current odds, the Serb looks great value to reach the final here. I've said it many times before, Nole has gotten the number of the aging Swiss. Federer might have looked impressive in the quarter-finals against Youzhny but he will not have it as easy against the Serb, who's been having the mental edge in their recent encounters. With Nadal out, this year's Wimbledon looks destined to go to Djokovic and he will certainly find the will and means to overcome Federer and retain his title.

Win: Djokovic

Another Derby for Camelot

Italy looks poised to win it all after surprising mighty Germany with a disciplined effort and the brilliance of Balotelli. I mentioned that the winner of that semi-final will win the tournament and I still think so. Spain are the best team in Europe but anything can happen in a final. They had difficulty in tying the Italians in the group stages and with the latter going from strength to strength, the Spaniards are bound to suffer even greater resistance. The game could end in another tie, but I see the Italians winning it either in extra time or penalties. Just my opinion.

Saturday sees the running of the Irish Derby where Camelot has scared off the opposition and will take on 6 others. The softish ground is a worry according to his trainer but I think he is blessed with stamina and the ground will be more of a concern to the rest of the field. Speaking of Which, from the Dermot Weld camp looks to be the main danger, but I have slight stamina concerning this son of Invincible Spirit. Camelot should win this before raising question about his possible quest for the Triple Crown. He is recommended as a Win.

Win: Camelot

In the zone

Frankel beware, Camelot could give you a race if you decide to step up to 10 furlongs! As expected. the son of Montjeu provided his sire with his fourth Derby when easily winning the Epsom showpiece on Saturday.

There are evidently now talks of the Triple Crown and let's hope for racing that Camelot takes his chance at the St Leger. Studs have for the past years evaded the last leg of the British Triple Crown as the perception is that it goes against the requirements for speed that is so often sought in today's stallions. It would not be surprising if Coolmore put its commercial interests at the forefront, bypassed the Doncaster Classic and focused on the big 10 to 12 furlong races this year. But as long as they haven't mentioned the contrary, there is hope.

The Prix du Jockey Club, the French equivalent of the Derby but at a reduced distance of 11 furlongs, saw one of the the lesser-fancied colts, Saonois, prevailing in a tight finish. By Chichicastenango, he could be the second coming of Vision D'Etat, who put his sire on the map by winning the French Derby a few years back, and went on to score in big Group 1 races in England and Hong Kong.

This week looks promising with the final run-in to the French Open at Roland Garros, the start of Euro 2012 in Ukraine and Poland, and the lead-up to the Belmont Stakes in the US. Nadal is looking strong and should be present in the final again. That is the most confident selection of the tournament so far.

To reach final: Nadal

Coronation for Camelot

Was was mentioned here to be one to watch for, but still produced a shocker to win the Oaks. She was ideally placed in a stalking position and took full benefit in the straight, as some of those at the end of the pack found themselves shuffled back with too much ground to make. It will be interesting to see if the form of this race holds up as the slow pace had a great incidence on the running of the race.

Earlier, Worthadd found the extended mile one hundred yards too far and came out fourth. He was travelling beautifully and looked a winner until he floundered in the late stages. Maybe a strict mile at the top level is the max he can handle.

The Derby will numerically the smallest in years. It's hard to go against Camelot here. He ticks the boxes everywhere; unbeaten and by Montjeu, he is clearly the pick on form and pedigree. Only a no-show from him on the day will beat him. He's possibly the surest thing for a Classic in years. Clearly, a very confident Win selection here.

Win: Camelot

Racing extravaganza

That was an eventful week-end of racing. Power won the Irish 2000 Guineas proving that he did not handle the sloppy conditions in the English version. The field was within a few lengths on the good ground which means that there isn't much of a gap between the milers of this generation. If they meet again, the standings might very well be different. But certainly the biggest satisfaction of this blog is to have pinpointed long-shot Reply, who came out 3rd at odds of 25/1. A fantastic each-way that was for those that had the same confidence on supposedly weakest string of the Ballydoyle contingent.

Trumpet Major flopped but like the rest, wasn't disgraced, which means that none of them should be discarded in their future races. The eye-catcher of the race was certainly Born To Sea, who looked lively in the closing stages and the son of Urban Sea looks set to be on the progressive path. Definitely something worthy of note for future reference.

The female equivalent went to Samitar, a first Classic for the Mick Channon stable, and a first Classic for her sire Rock of Gibraltar. The son of Danehill has shown renewed promised as a sire from the past year, and this vital win could be the turning point of his stud career.

On the same card, So You Think started his last European campaign by easily disposing of an average field to win the Tattersalls Gold Cup. He cantered easily on-the-bridle and seems to have none of his ability. The only other runner of note was Famous Name, who's a Group 2 horse really. I just hope O'Brien gets it right this year with the best son of High Chaparral so that he can truly gets to show his steel.

French racing was also the subject of some momentous races, highlighted by the winning return of Golden Lilac, the Galileo filly that took the 3-year old honours last year. She had been sidelined since her only defeat and she seems to have overcome the injury problems that made her miss the second half of last year. By beating Cirrus des Aigles and Planteur fair and square, she proved she could be the one to beat in the important middle-distance races in Europe this year. The Arc looks right up her alley at this point and Andre Fabre, her conditioner, is a master planner for that race.

Lastly, Deep Brillante won the Japanese Oaks by the touch of a short head. Yet another Classic winner for Deep Impact, whose daughters in particular are really rocking this year.

This week is all about the lead-up to the Derby; It seems impossible to oppose Camelot at this stage, the son of Montjeu looks to prolong the sublime winning record of his sire in England's most prestigious race.

Classic after-math

Man Utd won, most possibly in a futile fashion, Bodemeister was a good-placed second while Born To Sea flopped in the Guineas.

The Classics came by and produced some interesting thoughts regarding the 3-year old generation. Let's start with the 2000 Guineas where Camelot was up to the monumental task that was bestowed on him all over the winter and met all the expectations with a thundering roar. He's the real deal and for a Montjeu colt to dominate his contemporaries at a mile shows that he's truly in a class of his own. I hope his next stops will be the Derby and St Leger, for a crack at the British Triple Crown. I however think that his owners Coolmore will go on a more commercial path for his stallion career and go for the Champion Stake races instead. Let's hope that the romance of the Triple Crown wins them over, but I wouldn't punt on it.

What to make of Born To Sea? The excuse from connections looks to have been the very soft ground and the fact that he didn't settle from the on-set. I still think he's got the talent and will keep close tabs on him on his future races.

The 1000 Guineas went to un-fancied but progressive Homecoming Queen giving his sire Holy Roman Emperor a first Classic. Her win is most amazing given that it took her 8 races to break her maiden tag. You never know with those Aidan O'Brien horses, they can spring up when you least expect them. Maybe, the favourite, lost her unbeaten tag, but I wouldn't discount her out yet.

Stateside, I'll Have Another won the Kentucky Derby and this horse shouldn't be taken lightly from now on. If his win over fancied Creative Cause in the Santa Anita Derby did not make him a household name, this win will do it. He was well-placed all the way and ran down Bodemeister because of his superior stamina. Both must certainly be leading players going to the next Classic, the Preakness Stakes in 2 weeks.

There are lots of good racing going on in the UK at the moment but most of it is getting wrecked by the wet weather. Long studies of form can be easily wrecked by the soggy and heavy conditions prevailing at the tracks. As can be seen in the past days, long-shots and outsiders rule the roost in such circumstances, and it looks best to stay away unless there's a clear shout in a race. Long punters should be enjoying this but I cannot find any good-value certainties in the cards worthy of mention.

Crowning moment

This week-end will determine the eventual winner of the EPL. If Man City win at Newcastle, they'll win it. Anything else will lead to a Man Utd win, I believe. Man City holds the cards here and have their destiny in their hands. Can they win it at St James park where Newcastle has proved so difficult to overcome this season? I have a feeling they won't and will have to settle for 1 point at most.

Man Utd will beat Swansea at home, no doubt. There should be many goals in that one. Man Utd is a recommended as a straight win.

The 2000 Guineas will be the center of attention for racegoers. I persist in thinking that Camelot is not tailor-made for the mile and will be much better over longer distances as his pedigree suggests. He's a very good horse no doubt, but I think he's vulnerable at the distance and he is definitely way too short at his current price. He's a lay in my books. I believe his stablemate Power and John Oxx's Born To Sea are the value punts of the race. There are stamina doubts regarding Power, particularly if the grounds gets worse than soft. But if the conditions dry on race day, this battle-hardened colt has shown enough potential in his 2-year old season to be among the contenders. For punters looking for value, he looks like a good Place punt.

Born To Sea looks destined for great things like his half-brothers Galileo and Sea The Stars. His pedigree suggests that he will have more speed than these two, and a mile should be right up his alley. Like Power, he should be more convenienced with drier track conditions. At his current price, he looks worthy of a Place punt and this is the recommendation.

There are quite a few dark horses in the race such as french raiders Abtaal and French Fifteen. They could very well emulate Makfi and trump them all. But I think that Trumpet Major and Caspar Netscher have been over-cooked in their trial wins and are lays at the same level as Camelot.

This year's Kentucky Derby looks the most competitive it's been for years. I don't think Daddy Long Legs, the Coolmore representative has much of a chance here, unless he's turned out to be a superstar. First post and having flopped on his only start on dirt, do not provide confidence to the son of Scat Daddy. I think Bodemeister and Union Rags are sitting on big races here. Bodemeister was by far the most impressive in the prep races and although he's only had 4 races to date, he's been battle-hardened this year. Union Rags was mighty impressive before his disappointing run in the Florida Derby. I don't subscribe to the majority notion that his awful trip was the cause of his defeat. I think his trip wasn't as bad as perceived and that he was well-beaten on the day. Maybe he was under-cooked on the day, but he looks in prime condition for Saturday's race. Bodemeister looks the least vulnerable of the lot and he is a Place selection.

Win: Man Utd.

Place: Born To Sea, Bodemeister

Classic Countdown

It is a case of "one down, one more to go" as Real Madrid won La Liga, the Los Blancos being heavily tipped to land the title in these pages for a long time. The other one, Man City for the EPL, currently looks a good shout as well, although it is by no means a certainty as their next travel to Newcastle will certainly determine the destiny of the title.

The first Saturday of May one of the most exciting of any year as one side of the Atlantic holds the Kentucky Derby and the other one the 2000 Guineas. Just last year, Frankel gave a scintillating display for the ages in trouncing his contemporaries in the Newmarket classic. The focus this year has been on Camelot who's not put a foot wrong in his 2-year old campaign, not least winning the Racing Post Trophy in a canter. Will he do a St Nicholas Abbey and flop? That is the main question.

The other question is how good is Born To Sea, the half-brother to superstar Sea The Stars? His trainer John Oxx would not send him across the Irish Sea if he thought he'd be going to the wolves. One thing is certain, his pedigree suggests that Born To Sea will have been born with speedier genes than his half-brother and if a mile on soft ground is within his realm, he will be a major player on Saturday.

Stateside, it's the countdown to the Triple Crown race they all want to win, the Kentucky Derby. This looks a very close affair as well with at least 5 main protagonists in my cards; Bodemeister,  Union Rags, Gemologist, Creative Cause and Alpha. I think the winner will come from this group, unless there is an extreme outsider out there that is destined for a good day. Powerhouses Godolphin and Coolmore are represented in this year's race, it would be something if one of them were to land this.

Track and weather conditions are bound to play a big role in these Classics come Saturday; I'll be more confident on my selections as we get close to race-day.