Marengo and Ocovango battle for Paris

For many purists, the Grand Prix de Paris is the unofficial French Derby that pits the best 3 year-olds at the 12 furlong Classic distance. The claim that the official holder of the title, the Prix du Jockey-Club, favours more milers than stamina players at its shortened 11 furlong distance, seems to hold much water with every passing year.

At the forefront of this year's edition are Ocovango and Battle of Marengo, two colts that lost their unbeaten records at the Epsom Classic without demerit. Both look to be evenly-matched from the outcome and the winner will very possibly from one of the two. I believe that fitness will be the deciding factor. BOM had another racecourse outing at Royal Ascot running a creditable second to Hillstar in the King Edward VII Stakes. Saturday's race might be coming too soon for the son of Galileo. On the other hand, Ocovango makes his comeback from his English raid having enjoyed more than 6 weeks of rest. That definitely gives him the upper hand in terms of recovery. Trainer Andre Fabre is a renowned master for getting his 3-year olds primed for the big targeted races and for a person of a few words, is looking very confident on his colt's chances.

The selection is to go with Ocovango over BOM in any match-bet and for the Win as well.


Win: Ocovango
Match-bet: Ocovango

Irish Derby 2013 - Ruler to convince the world

Although he won the Epsom Derby quite convincingly, Ruler of the World still has doubters about whether he is the real deal and is indeed the creme de la creme of the Classic division. He will have the opportunity to put the question to bed in Saturday's Irish Derby.

Some would say that Battle of Marengo was unleashed too soon at Epsom which ruined his chances at the finish. The way that ROTW stormed by in the closing stages seems to indicate that he still had the race in control had the sprint to the finish line started later than actual. The fact that ROTW is still undefeated in 3 races and looks a progressive type means that he is the deserved favourite for the Curragh Classic. At evens, he might be a little short, but he definitely should be in the first 3, albeit without regular partner Ryan Moore in the saddle.

I believe the main challenge will come from Libertarian, Sugar Boy or Trading Leather. Derby runner-up Libertarian looked a very good closer at Epsom which looked to indicate that the St Leger might be up his alley. He will certainly appreciate the less-undulating Curragh track and cannot be dismissed in any trifecta.

There is a slight question mark on Trading Leather at a mile and a half distance. He's produced high-class races at a mile and ten furlongs this year and he might have too much speed for the Classic distance. He's from the top drawer though and very possibly the best 3-year old in Jim Bolger's care after Dawn Approach. If he gets the distance, he represents a good value each-way chance.

Sugar Boy beat Libertarian in the Sandown Classic Trial at ten furlongs. He's been either in first or second places in his last 6 races, and has made the frame in all 8 of his outings. He will relish the distance. It remains to be seen how to interpret his 64 day absence from the tracks; will he be too fresh or just fresh enough to run down quite a few opponents that might still not fully recovered from the Epsom race?

I think that if ROTW runs his race, he should win. For the placings, I see value in both Sugar Boy and Trading Leather. One stands not to lose if at least one of them makes it in the first 3.

Win: Ruler of the World
Place: Trading Leather/Sugar Boy 

C's and T's: Dawn Approach's challenge

New Approach made his mark as a serious Classic sire today after Talent's surprising victory in the Oaks. The question is whether he can make it a bis repetita celebration when his son Dawn Approach guns for Derby victory as a heavy favourite.

It seems to be a unanimous feeling that if Dawn Approach gets the 12-furlong distance, he will win. Based on form, there is not much in the race that comes close to Godolphin's representative. The answer to his stamina concerns lies in a momentous discovery in thoroughbred racing central of which is no other than his trainer Jim Bolger himself. It is his company that made the breakthrough that racehorses can be empirically categorized as pure sprinters, stayers and a mixture of both based on samplings of their DNA. To simplify a long story, if C stands for a sprinter-type and T for a stayer-type, then a CC-horse is bound to be primarily a short-distance specialist having received the C genes from both the dam and sire. On the same note, a TT-type horse will be more apt for stamina-challenging races. CT or TC-type horses can turn out to be in either part of the spectrum; they can become great sprinters, milers or stayers.

If Jim Bolger did not have Dawn Approach in the Derby preliminary entries, it is for the simple reason that he had empirical evidence that the colt is a CC-type horse, i.e, a sprinting type not suited for the Derby distance. The story goes that it is the colt's other owner, Godolphin's Sheikh Mohammed that decided to go for the Classic.

Given the above, it is clear that for Dawn Approach to win the Derby, 2 things must happen. First, he must have the class that will carry him through the distance. He will need to find every bit of it in the last furlong to the post, where many other champions (Dubai Millenium is the prime example) have floundered. The manner of all his wins lead me to think that Dawn Approach has that amount of required class. Second, much depends on the quality of his opponents. From what most of them have shown, their forms are very exposed. Battle of Marengo was workmanlike in the Derrinstown Derby Trial. Although unbeaten in 3 races, Ocovango is no Pour Moi although many pundits try to find similarities. Ocovango looks more like a galloper and lacks the burst of acceleration of the Derby winner. He can be in the thereabouts but at current odds, I think he's a great one to lay. The winner could come out of the rest of the pack with the likes of Mars, Ruler of the World or the unbeaten Chopin, but none of them would be a confident pick. It seems that whichever acts more on the Epsom undulations will have a chance of usurping the favourite.

My confident selection is Dawn Approach to be in the first 3. If he takes to the distance, he could rout this field. If not, there might be a dark horse among the rest waiting to bask in Epsom's glory. I don't think it will be Battle of Marengo or Ocovango, so they would be my lays of the race.

Place: Dawn Approach

Lay: Battle of Marengo, Ocovango