Football Preview

A couple of great match-ups dominate the EPL and La Liga this week-end. Chelsea and Man City, the 2 front-runners for the Premier League, at least from the bookies standpoint, clash at Stamford Bridge, while the El Clasico is the un-missable feature in Spain. Here are some picks.

Crystal Palace v/s Arsenal. There is no basis to back the Eagles here. They lost manager Halloway during the week and I can't see the caretaker manager making a marked difference to the squad, particularly that other managers are being publicly sought after. Arsenal lost against Dortmund in the Champions League and will be keen to resume their winning ways against lesser opposition. Arsenal is a Win selection.

Aston Villa v/s Everton. I like the hosts' chances here with the possible return of Benteke in the starting eleven. Everton can be deemed lucky to have scraped past Hull last week and they are certainly a work in progress under Martinez. This could very well end up in a draw and I fancy to nick it if there is to be a winner. So, the Villains are a  draw-no-bet selection.

Liverpool v/s West Brom. I can't believe Liverpool are near evens to land a top 4 spot and in the 9's to win the league. I say lay on both, because in my mind, they are not good enough to finish in the first 4. Granted, it's still early in the season, but the prices are attractive enough to lay at the moment. WBA's visit is a good occasion for the Kops to land another 3 points although if there is to be a shocking result this week-end, it could be with WBA taking the spoils. I'll avoid this one.

Man Utd v/s Stoke. This should end with a home win to get the Red Devils back on track in the league.

Tottenham v/s Hull. Spurs shouldn't take Hull for easy victims as the visitors are a good disciplined side that is hard to break down. I can't see the Tigers winning this but they will definitely battle to get at least a draw from the match. Spurs look to be safe draw-no-bet selection.

Chelsea v/s Man City. History has it that Mourinho has never lost an EPL game at Stamford Bridge. They are in good form and went to thrash Shalke in Germany during the week. Man City finally won on the road last Saturday but this is going to be one of their toughest visits of the season. This is a 6-pointer game and this game will probably be decided with a moment of genius or inattention from either side. With Mourinho's record, it's hard to go against Chelsea as hosts, so the Blues are a strong draw-no-bet selection at current odds.

Finally, the El Clasico in Spain is an intriguing one with the 2 giant clubs under the helm of new management. There is no doubt that Ancelotti and Martino are still working the kinks of their side and won't have their typical A-team. Neymar is still finding his feet at Barca and Bale is far from showing his real weapons at Madrid. Being the hosts and with the return of Messi, the Catalans hold a slight advantage and look good value with current draw-no-bet odds.

Win: Arsenal, Man Utd

Draw-no-bet: Barcelona, Chelsea, Tottenham, Aston Villa

UCL Quarters

The UCL quarters start today with 2 mouth-watering clashes between PSG and Barcelona, and Bayern against Juventus.

PSG v/s Barcelona. PSG will soon become a European heavy-weight behind the backing of Qatar's coffers. They are a team in the making and are not yet up to the likes of Barcelona.They look set to win the French Ligue 1 and have done well to reach this stage of the UCL. But the buck should stop here. Their main weapon is Ibrahimovic and Barcelona will put their focus to shut him down and hence subdue the Parisians' premier goalscoring threat. I believe they should do so and let Messi and co dictate things at the other end of the pitch. Barcelona are not invincible and will be keen not to repeat their nightmare of San Siro a few weeks back where they surrendered 2 goals. The return of manager Tito Villanova behind the bench will no doubt strengthen the team and I advise them as a solid draw-no-bet.

Bayern is crushing the Bundesliga but Juventus will be as strong a team as they will face all season. The Italians will certainly try to squeeze at least a goal on this trip so that they can make the difference back home. This looks to be the tightest match-up of the quarter-finals and on quality, the Germans have the edge only marginally. They will be looking to make a strong statement at home and I see them as a strong draw-no-bet as well.

Draw-no-bet: Barcelona, Bayern Munich

EPL preview

Here's hoping this weekd-end's selections turn out to be as good as last week's.

Everton v/s Reading. While the title is already decided, the fight to avoid relegation is very much up for grabs. Reading is one of the favourites to go down and my belief at the moment is that they will indeed drop. They have found it hard to find consistent good form all season and unless they can come up with a string of good results, I fear they don't have what it takes to stay in the Premier League. They can score boat loads of goals on their best day, but they can equally concede in multiples. This is a must-three points for Everton if they are to fight for a Top 6 finish. The good news for the Toffees is the return of Fellaini; without him, they lack that sparkle up front. Everton is a Win recommendation.

Man Utd v/s Norwich. It does not take a rocket scientist to know that the Red Devils will not be at full strength against the Canaries. Most of their thoughts will be on the upcoming UCL match against Real Madrid next Tuesday. Ferguson will be keen not to suffer any stupid, last-minute injuries against the visitors, given that the league is already in the pocket. I don't expect a vintage Utd display and while they might have to work for it, it's hard not to see Man Utd win at the end. It might be best to avoid this game altogether, but if you need a go at it, a win on the Mancunians is the selection.

Stoke v/s West Ham. The hosts will be missing defensive lynchpin Robert Huth due to suspension and this might play to the advantage of Andy Carroll for the visitors.Although the Potters have been disappointing of late, they are still a good force to be reckoned with at home. Stoke are a draw-no-bet selection.

Sunderland v/s Fulham. It seems that Sunderland are a team that need to be re-built as Martin O'Neill does not seem to be able to improve them any further. I believe they will end up in the middle of the table. Fulham also will have major questions to answer after a disappointing season, their only highlight having been their recruit ace Berbatov. Home advantage speaks here and Sunderland are the value draw-no-bet of the week-end.

Tottenham v/s Arsenal. Who's the best 3rd player in the world after Messi and Ronaldo? Many will say Iniesta or Neymar. I say Gareth Bale. As he showed against West Ham earlier this week, he can win a match on his own. His current form is spectacular and he's only going to get better. If he leaves Spurs for better skies, Tottenham will certainly a much weaker team. If they cannot control the Welsh wizard, Arsenal look set to have a long afternoon in front of them. As in previous editions, this match looks destined to have many goals. Both sides have potent attacks and quite generous defences. I will side with the home team as a draw-no-bet here.


Win: Everton, Man Utd
Draw-no-bet: Stoke, Sunderland, Tottenham

Week-end European football

All of the Wednesday selections won, which hopefully, bodes well for the upcoming week-end matches. Here are some of my thoughts.

Liverpool v/s Southampton. Much of Liverpool's chances reside on the form of Luis Suarez. If he scores, they have a great chance to win. If he doesn't, it's hard to see where the goals will come from. Southampton have racked up points at home lately, where they are particularly strong. Like all bottom-tier teams, they find it much harder on the road. They can get a point from Anfield, but I don't see them winning. Liverpool is a draw-no-bet recommendation.

QPR v/s Aston Villa. Rangers will be hoping to get a first win of the dismal campaign against the Villains. There is no doubt that they are a better team with Harry Redknapp in command. I think they will pose Villa with problems and it will not be surprising if they scrape through with 3 full points. The visitors are a decent team, but they will come up against an inspired Rangers. Looking at the odds, I see the hosts as a good value draw-no-be.

Juventus v/s Torino. There are only a couple of teams that aspire full confidence when handicapping Serie A games and Juventus is one of them. They lost to AC Milan, albeit controversially, last week, and they will be keen to keep their healthy lead at the top by winning the Turin derby match. A straight win for the Old Lady.

Barcelona v/s Atletic Bilbao. Barca is on fire and Messi is a man on a mission to break Gerd Muller's season-goal record. Bilbao is a broken team where manager Biesla seems to have lost the plot after club in-fighting with players like Llorente. Straight win for the Blaugrana.

Nice v/s PSG. After a recent dry spell, things look to be returning to normal for the visitors. Although they were dumped out of the French Cup on penalties in mid-week, their priority remains the championship and they should have too much firepower for Nice. Carlos Ancelotti's men are a safe draw-no-bet.


Win: Juventus, Barcelona
Draw-no-bet: Liverpool, QPR, PSG

Pantheon of the greats

What a week-end! Every single selection hit, except for hapless Arsenal who managed to go lose at Norwich. Obviously, the main talking point after Saturday was the place of Frankel among the all-time greats. Best horse there has ever been, has been a very popular clamour. There is no right or wrong answer on this one and I stand among those that will fall short of calling him the best ever. He could very well be the best of them all, but it impossible for me to give him that ultimate accolade with absolute confidence or certainty.

Don't get me wrong; Frankel is an unbelievable beast, the likes of which I've never seen before. He's the greatest miler of all time. Better, I consider him the best racehorse to have ever run up to 10 furlongs. If there was any match race from 8 to10 furlongs and I could select any horse, it would be him. He's the most dominant horse that has ever run at those distances. He's proved it by beating champions of the caliber of Canford Cliffs, Excelebration, and Cirrus des Aigles. He put anything that opposed him to submission.

But he hasn't run at 12 furlongs, the distance of reference for the best of the best, in my opinion. This is the distance of the Derbies, of the most-prestigious Arc, of the King George. This is the distance that tells the difference in class between the great and the immortal ones. The awesome Dubai Millenium lost his invincibility on his Derby attempt, a lack of stamina that was the cause of his only defeat. This is the distance that some mighty champions of Montjeu toyed with the their challengers. This is the distance that made the legends of Dancing Brave, Ribot, Deep Impact, Zarkava, Sea Bird, Nijinski, to name a few.

Frankel did not attempt that mythical distance, and the travesty of it all, is that he seemed to have the pedigree, being a son of Galileo. Had he won a high-caliber Group 1 at 12 furlongs, he would be my undisputed champion of all time. Would he have flopped like Dubai Millenium? Or would he have been as dominant as he proved at shorter distances? Have would he have reacted on the Longchamp straight with Ribot working on his inside and Deep Impact, Zarkava and Dancing Brave breathing down his neck with their dazzling finish, for the ultimate Arc? Most probably, he would have trounced all of them, but alas, he has no form to prove it. On similar lines, Black Caviar is possibly the greatest sprinter of all time, but she's just that, a sprinter; not the greatest racehorse there has been.

Not many champions end their career undefeated. The mystique behind Frankel is that he can not only boast he never got beaten, but he destroyed almost any horse that crossed his path. Such was his dominance. He's racing's version of Lionel Messi; he won everything there is to win while beating every record, except winning the World Cup. Can he be considered the greatest?

There has never been a certainty like Frankel in race punting, at least not in these times. He will be missed. He's the benchmark against which all future milers and 10-furlong performers will be gauged. I believe he will stay thus for a long long time. Frankel was a destroyer, possibly not the greatest racehorse, but certainly the most dominant thoroughbred there has been.

Countdown to the St Leger

Fantastic week-end it was with mostly everything on target, with a couple of voided draw-no-bets. The big one came at Anfield where the Gunners did what was expected of them to beat a sorry Liverpool side. Man City, Man Utd, Real Madrid all won and Atletico Madrid pounded on Chelsea in the Super Cup on Friday. Tottenham and Newcastle snatched draws for voids.

Radamel Falcao, what a striker. He always scores in a final; I actually can't recall a final in which he hasn't scored. Fantastic finisher, one that Chelsea will rue to have missed during the transfer season. He will cost a lot in January. One team that probably won't look for his services is Man Utd. They are loaded in that department and their new recruit RVP got his own superb hat-trick against the Saints on Sunday. The fact that he scored 2 brilliant goals after missing a penalty in the last third of the game, shows that he's got mettle. With the services from Utd's awesome wingers, RVP is certainly an early favourite for best EPL scorer again this year.

Christiano Ronaldo, what do you call something worse than a prima donna? The supremely-talented but moody spoiled brat came up with his bombshell "sad" state of affairs that has everyone speculating what is the professional reason for his self-evoked sadness. Money it isn't, he denies. It's very hard to think otherwise. He knows his tantrums will make the headlines and whatever the reason, this guy has redefined the word prima donna. The second-best player in the world, but too manipulative and no class. His late antics show why people prefer Messi.

 Finally, in racing, the run down to this week culminates to the last Classic of the season, the St Leger. Will Camelot do the Triple Crown? All indications from connections is that he's spot on. In his words, Aidan O'Brien says his superstar is the most incredible horse he's trained. What does that mean? Is he the best? Better than Galileo, So You Think, High Chaparral? As usual, there's nothing precise in his words. Didn't he say that he thought highly of St Nicholas Abbey that he could "walk on water", so to speak? i.e, do incredible things. Now Frankel is the closest thing to that, but not St Nick Abbey, from what we've seen.

What is for certain is that Camelot is really good, and looking at his opponents at this time, it looks like his path to immortality will only be thwarted by the Gosden stable, who've actually won the last 2 editions of the race. His colt Michaelangelo looks the main danger. I'll get to the review in due time, but that's my feeling at the moment.

Season on the line

Man Utd gave a perfect rendition of How to Throw away the Title after getting caught into a 4-4 tie with Everton. A cross-bar and 2 minutes of madness meant that an assured 3 points transformed into a measly 1 point that could cost the Red Devils dear in the end. It's game on for the Manchester Derby next week and City will no doubt on such defensive lapses if they were to repeat at the Etihad.

Barcelona's season is on the line on Tuesday in the return UCL semi-final leg against Chelsea. 2 costly defeats in the space of 3 days have rocked the Catalan club big time; they lost the Liga to Real this week-end and they are in danger of going out of the UCL if they can't beat Chelsea by more than 2 goals.

Against Real, clearly Guardiola was distracted by the UCL match. His team selection meant that he wanted to freshen things up against Chelsea; after all, even a win over Real would have meant his team still trailing the Los Blancos in the standings and hence the destiny of the title still out of their hands. The problem for Barcelona in these 2 matches has been their profligacy in front of goal. With a lack of a pure striker in the form of David Villa, they rely on Messi (excessively) and midfielders Fabregas and Sanchez to score. As we've seen lately, if Messi fails to score, the reliance on the other 2 can be somewhat misplaced. They have scored, but never in the range of the Argentinian genius.

Much of the game will depend on Petr Cech, the Chelsea keeper. He will need to have a near-perfect night and rely on the aid of his best friends, his posts and cross-bar! There's no doubt that Chelsea's defensive pair of Terry and Cahill will be breached, but it remains to be seen whether Cech can be beaten. Yet again, he was saved by his posts against Arsenal over the week-end.

Barcelona will get plenty of possession, and opportunities to score. In fact, they will score, I have no doubt. But will they concede? Chelsea's best way to score will be on set-pieces, particularly with the lack of height in the Catalan team. Arsenal went to the Nou Camp and scored. So did Milan. Chelsea are always a threat to score with Drobga; particularly if he's keen on his unfair-play antics with his usual dead-man drops, sometimes in the penalty area. The Ivory Coast striker is still dangerous despite his age, but the theatrics he's added to his repertoire leave a lot to be desired.

This could be a high-scoring game. Barcelona could blow this Chelsea team apart if they take full opportunity of their scoring chances. If their defence stays perfect on the night and they do not concede, they will qualify. I cannot see them lose. It looks like Chelsea is in for a hell of a trip. Draw-no-bet on Barcelona is safe; for them to qualify is still on (from previous post selection). Messi to finally score against the Blues doesn't look like a far-fetched selection as well.

 Draw-no-bet: Barcelona

Going opposite directions

Bayern edged Real thanks to a last-minute goal, voiding the +1.0 Real selection. Here's my take on tonight's Chelsea vs Barcelona game semi-final match-up.

One of the very few times that I have seen Guardiola's Barcelona team being rocked, has been their visit to Chelsea a few years back in the UCL. Obviously, everyone remembers this game as the one that Barcelona massively got away with, following a last-gap 93rd minute equalizer from Iniesta, and surviving at least 3 good penalty shouts. Chelsea should have qualified on the night. They were then guided by top coach Guus Hiddink.

Fast forward 3 years, and this is the night that Chelsea will be clinging to as a rallying cry, when they host the Catalans again. Barcelona has become better in every aspect; Guardiola's team is now at its zenith. Chelsea has become inferior in every aspect, Drogba, Lampard, Terry, Essien are no longer the force they once were. So when Chelsea are looking for positives such as the impact of Di Matteo as a manager, their current good form, the fact they have never conceded a goal to Messi, the reality is that deep down, they fear the formidable force of the Catalans, just like any other team.

The Chelsea of a few years back would have had a chance. Their current crop doesn't. Barcelona will go through over 2 legs. In tonight's match, the Spaniards look good value as draw-no-bet as well.

To qualify: Barcelona

Draw-no-bet: Barcelona

Quest for points

Real Madrid drew at Villareal in a game that ended infamously with 2 Madrid players sent off and Mourinho and one of his assistants kicked out from the touch-line. The Real brass is still complaining about the referee-ing this morning, without doubt in an attempt to get favours from the men in black in the remaining encounters.

Let's get at the week-end's La Liga matches right away then. No doubt that the 2 points lost at Villareal (4 points dropped in a space of a few days) by the Los Blancos has opened up the championship a little more. But they still have a 6-point cushion which is by no means a small margin. In other words, Real Madrid is still firmly in the driving seat. The visit of lowly Real Sociedad this week-end gives them a perfect opportunity to get back to winning ways and squash any talk of lack of form or confidence. They should win this game and I have little doubt they will. They are an easy recommendation for a win.

The recent stuttering of Mourinho's team can be a blessing for punters since it has brought Barcelona back in the frame to challenge. There was the danger, a few weeks back, that Guardiola would only be fielding his best team for the Champions League given that the La Liga title looked to be a lost cause. Their interest will have been rekindled that the hope that Real might falter in the title run-in. That means that if Barcelona can keep on their current irresistible form, they will be tough to beat on their travel to Mallorca on Saturday. Their defence is cause for concern as they got knocked for three against Granada in mid-week. But they have a player in Messi that is just un-stoppable nowadays. Barcelona should draw or win this game. It is for sure safer to have them as draw-no-bet but I think they will want to win this and I recommend them as an outright win.

In the EPL, Man City face another big hurdle in their quest for the title as they visit Stoke. Tony Pulis' men are always a threat at home to any team. This game can go either way, so I won't venture. Rivals Man Utd host Fulham and the return of Valencia and Young in the last few weeks have made a huge difference to the attacking potential of the team. Man Utd are experienced enough to tackle those games in the title run-in and should overcome Martin Jol's men. They are a Win selection as well.

I see Liverpool, Swansea and Norwich as draw-no-bets. Blackburn looks good value with an Asian Handicap of +1 goal against Bolton.

In Serie A, AC Milan make appeal as it hosts Roma and are recommended as a draw-no-bet.

In Germany, Bayern Munich should beat Hannover in order to cling on to their slim title hopes. They are a straight Win selection.


Win: Real Madrid, Barcelona, Man Utd, Bayern Munich

Draw-no-bet: Liverpool, Swansea, Norwich, AC Milan

Asian Handicap: Bolton +1.0

Win and Lose for Barcelona

Man Utd won, West Brom drew but Fulham got surprisingly thrashed at home to Swansea. I must admit I did not expect Brendan Rodgers' men to be of that kind of threat on the road, and they really mustn't be taken lightly whether at home or away.

It looks that Real Madrid gave a glimmer of hope to Barcelona by suffering a draw at home this week-end. I say this because I see that their odds to win the title have lengthened three-fold on the exchanges after their draw. I believe they are at this rate, of massive value. The Los Blancos are still 8 points clear at the top and I find it impossible for them to be caught. A wise fox like Mourinho won't let that happen. May be if they suffer a points deduction because of some irregularity or a la Glasgow Rangers, that can happen. But what are the chances of that? Real Madrid will win La Liga this year and I cannot see any logic in the layers on the exchanges. They are offering a return much much higher than the current rate of interest and if you're willing in to wait less than a couple of months for a return, there's no better place to go.

Even better, wait for Barcelona's match against Granada on Tuesday, after which Real's odds to win La Liga will have lengthened a little bit more. Guardiola's men are hitting full gear with a Messi in unbelievable form and should easily win this game.

Win: Barcelona

Keep it flowing

Milan, Juventus and Real Madrid all won, while Newcastle drew for a voided punt. The Magpies did not allow a shot on goal and had 22 shots themselves but couldn't find the net. Draw-no-bets are great in those circumstances in that they forgive strikers' day-offs.

Both Manchester clubs were impressive over the week-end in their wins. Man City came out deserved winners over Arsenal in a thrilling game at the Etihaad Stadium. They could have won by more. Man Utd were equally impressive in winning at Loftus Road. The scoreline should have been at least 5 goals difference if they had been more clinical in their finishing and with some luck. I have the feeling that there has been a sense of urgency for the Red Devils to double their efforts since their shocking Champions League exit so as not to be empty-handed trophy-wise at the end of the season. They don't have much room for any more mistakes.

Christiano Ronaldo partly redeemed himself after his nightmare Clasico game by firing a hat-trick against sorry Sevilla. I mentioned it before, I don't think there has ever been a midfielder with such a prolific record of goals. Messi comes close in terms of goal scoring but Ronaldo's goal ratio-to-games is tops. While the Los Blancos were ensuring that they were top of the table come the winter break, their nemesis Barcelona were celebrating yet another title by claiming the World Club Championship in Japan.  Their short express trip to Japan shouldn't have any detrimental effect, physically speaking, on the Blaugrana since they are on their way to the holidays anyway! The second-half of the season sounds breathtaking already.


While the rest of Europe has now gone on a break, the EPL will plough on during the festivities. The congested fixtures come Boxing Day and New Year are some of the elements that make the EPL such a spectacular league. It might be the reason of the burn-out of England's players at international tournaments or of English teams in the Champions League, but football fans surely won't be complaining of the continuance of football. No chance of getting football withdrawal symptoms, at least not for the EPL!

Week-end football

Valencia was an oh-so-easy winner against poor Genk, thrashing them 7-0. No surprise there. Week-end football is coming up and am hoping that the hot streak continues, so let's get at it.

A struggling Chelsea side is hosting Wolves and there is no manager in the game under pressure as is Villa-Boas nowadays. A defeat could be the tipping point for him to be toppled. However, I don't think they will lose this game. Wolves will be missing a few first-team players, and the Blues will be eager to right their sinking ship. Their lack of confidence might be low, but in the end Chelsea should come up with at least a point in this game. A draw-no-bet on the hosts is recommended.

Man Utd host Newcastle and getting the 3 points is far from a certainty for the Red Devils. The recent loss of Anderson to injury means that their midfield is really stretched to the limit. They had a hard game against Benfica in mid-week, which is hardly the best preparation to face the Magpies. I personally think there are big question marks regarding Rooney; his recent hip injury, his lack of goal scoring since the news of his family being involved in betting scams, and his re-positioning in a midfield role in the team. It will be interesting if he finds his full confidence back against Newcastle, a team he's been known to have the knack of scoring goals against. As for Pardew's men, they have overachieved since the start, but will be missing a few first choice players for the game. I would not be surprised if this game ended in a draw, and I can't see the hosts losing this; so a draw-no-bet on Man Utd is recommended.

The banker of the week-end is Real Madrid who host Athletico Madrid. The Los Blancos haven't lost to their city rivals for years, and that won't change over the week-end. Real is on fire right now. Athletico will be missing many players including their much-vaunted striker Falcao. I see lots of goals for the hosts in this game. They will certainly win and they are an easy Win recommendation.

Barcelona are on the road to Getafe. The Blaugrana were impressive in midweek by winning at the San Siro. Once Real will have dispatched Athletico, Messi and co will have no choice to win to retain the gap to 3 points between them and the Los Blancos. They should have all the class and firepower to do it and should win their game. They are recommended as an outright Win as well.

Win: Real Madrid, Barcelona

Draw-no-bet: Chelsea, Man Utd

Week-end preview

Good old club football is back after the boring international friendlies. Just need to make sure that the selections are not affected by the disruption of the 2-week break and most importantly, from injuries.

In the EPL, Man City should overcome Newcastle at home. The Magpies are still unbeaten at this stage and re the surprise package of the first half of the season. However, they will be missing a few starting players like Tiote in midfield and Best in attack. Man City can play 2 teams as their depth in squad is pretty much unparalleled in the Premiership. The team is so potent that goals can come from anywhere. I recommend Man City as a strong draw-no-bet.

Man Utd visit Swansea and should be able to keep up the pressure on neighbours City. Although they will be without Cleverley, Wellbeck and Owen, the fringe players can easily add their bit to the team. I don't expect this game to be a goal fest but I see the Red Devils edging this out at the end. It won't be easy for them, but they should have too much class for the hosts. I recommend Man Utd as a draw-no-bet as well.

In Spain, Barcelona should have no problem to overcome Zaragoza at home. Already trailing Real Madrid by 3 points, it will be important for Messi and co to get maximum points at the Nou Camp. They are an easy Win recommendation. The Los Blancos face an arguably tough task visiting third-place Valencia, who happen to be unbeaten at home so far. This is the kind of game where there is value backing Mourinho's team as a draw-no-bet. I see them getting at least a point from this match, and should they get the 3 points, they would have successfully removed a giant obstacle on their path to the title.

In Germany, it's the top match between Dortmund and Munich. Bayern lost their influential midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger recently and it will be interesting to see how it affects their dynamic. This game is too close to call although the hosts clearly have the advantage of home soil. Rather, I will focus on the Schalke-Nurnberg and Stuttgart-Augsburg matches where the hosts look to be enjoying a massive home advantage and are thus recommended as strong draw-no-bets.

Win: Barcelona
Draw-no-bet: Man City, Man Utd, Real Madrid, Schalke, Stuttgart

Week-end preview

Fa'iz placed third but Zabeel Park seemed to have suffered a setback on her return and was eased two furlongs from home. Frustrating to lose on Zabeel Park as she seemed to be right in the mix of things until her problem. There's no denying there's an element of risk when backing horses returning from such a long layoff.

The week-end's racing is polarized by the possible outing of Born To Sea in the Killavullan Group 3 race in Leopardstown. The three-parts brother to Sea The Stars was mightily impressive when winning on his debut in a listed race. The talent from the family blue blood is clearly there. The vibes from trainer John Oxx are very good, so if the more-than-softish ground does not prevent him from running, it's hard to see him finishing out of the places. I recommend him as a strong each-way punt.

In football, Man City are set to keep on their wining ways as they host Wolves, who they happen to have beaten in the Carling Cup in mid-week. The main guns like Silva and Aguero look set to start and pile more misery on Mc Carthy's men. It's hard to see anything other than a Win for City, and it is the recommendation.

Man Utd face a tougher task going to Everton and Goodison Park is always a tough place to grab 3 points. Everton have injury problems and had a tough long game in midweek against Chelsea. I don't expect the Red Devils to lose this game, but they might not win it either. I recommend them as a draw-no-bet.

Tottenham host QPR in a London derby and I can't see Neil Warnock's men repeating last week's victory against Chelsea. Spurs are solid at home while QPR's main points have also been garnered in the comforts of home. Tottenham are a strong draw-no-bet candidate and this punt is my recommendation.

In Spain, Barcelona host Mallorca in what should be a straightforward contest. Expect Messi to score a bundle to attone for last week-end's penalty miss, in my opinion. Barcelona is a straight Win recommendation. Real Madrid travel to Real Sociedad with full of confidence and all guns blazing. It would be shocking if The Los Blancos were to lose this game. They should win it and in case they misfire, should at least come up with a point. A draw-no-bet on Mourinho's men is recommended.

In Germany, Bayern Munich are hosts to Nurnberg and will clearly look for 3 points. The gulf in class between the 2 teams is clearly evident and Munich should clearly win this. A Win on the hosts is recommended.

Win: Man City, Barcelona, Bayern Munich

Draw-no-bet: Man Utd, Tottenham, Real Madrid

Each-way: Born To Sea

Change of guard

It would have been a great week-end with Tottenham and Real Madrid winning, and Liverpool and Barcelona drawing on draw-no-bets, but the Man Utd recommendation went awry. Man City went to Old Trafford and conquered big time.

Obviously, the score is very flattering for City but the game changer was Johnny Evans' dismissal. The Citizens played well and possibly could have won even without the central defender's sending off. More than the 3 points, this victory will also have given a tremendous mental boost to Mancini's men, raising their belief that they can hit it off with the best.They are clearly in the driver's seat and if they keep their head straight without being distracted by the off-field antics of some of their rogue players, they will be hard to dislodge at the top.

On the Red Devils' side, the defensive partnership of Ferdinand and Evans is possibly a recipe destined for disaster. At 32, Rio is past his best and the string of injuries that have beset him for the past 2 years are clearly taking a toll on his fitness for the rigours of the Premier League. He's still got some class in his play but not the elite and dominating player he once was. As for Evans, he's the weak link of the whole Man Utd team. A team sheet with Evans at the center of defence is a delight for opposing strikers out there. Next time Evans is in the starting eleven against a credible opponent, think twice before loading up on Man Utd, in my opinion.

Tottenham's winner at Blackburn was a fantastic result for this blog's predictions, and Blackburn certainly looks to be playing a major role at the bottom of the table, in my opinion.

In La Liga, Real Madrid jumped to the head of the pack by expectedly thrashing Malaga. I feel they are on a good winning run. Barcelona lost 2 important points by drawing against Sevilla. It remains to be seen if Messi's penalty miss in injury time could prove disastrous for them at the end of the season. The thing is, Messi always seems to be aiming for the same spot for most of this penalties and Sevilla's keeper played the probability game to great effect.

In racing, yet another Montjeu winner in the Racing Post Trophy as Camelot came out an easy winner in a small field. Weak field too, I should add. The previous editions of the race certainly were more competitive paper-wise and involved better-seasoned juveniles. So it is too early to gauge the real merits of Camelot, who nevertheless looks a smart sort. It would certainly be folly to have any sort of ante-post punt on him for next year's Guineas or Derby.

Europa League preview

Barcelona easily won but I don't think anyone would have thought otherwise. The Catalan offence is really in good form, and Messi is just unplayable at the moment.

On Thursday, I have my eyes set on the Group A matches of the Europa League. Tottenham host Shamrock Rovers and I cannot see Spurs losing that one even if they are expected to field a second-tier team. The hosts have admitted to being focused on the week-end match against arch-enemies Arsenal but their reserve team should have too much class for the Irish champions. Tottenham to win it is my recommendation.

In the same group, I like Rubin Kazan's chances as it hosts the Greek team Saloniki. The Russians are a strong team and have gathered considerable experience in Europe in the past few years. I expect them to win or draw this match, so I recommend them as a good draw-no-bet.

Win: Tottenham
Draw-no-bet: Rubin Kazan

Real Payback

Pretty busy football week on the old continent.

In the Spanish games on Wednesday, it looks hard to see Real Madrid losing 2 games in a row. They are facing a Santander team struggling in the relegation area and it's a golden opportunity for them to bag the 3 points and renew their winning ways. I recommend them as a Win. Barcelona face a trickier game at Valencia, possibly the best team in La Liga besides the 2 powerhouses. If the Blaugrana can win this match, it will be a massive 3 points. This game can go any way, so no certainties there, although Barcelona will be massive favorites particularly with Lionel Messi finding his scoring touch again.

In racing, I like Genius Step in the first race at Goodwood. The Al Zarooni team is on fire currently and this Dubawi colt makes his return to competition after a 116-day layoff. His debut was highly encouraging after a staying-on third at Newmarket. He looks the class of the race and provided the ground isn't too soft at Goodwood and he is fit enough, he should be in the first 3. My racing Place recommendation for Wednesday.


Win: Real Madrid
Place: Genius Step

Big guns firing

The sole prediction of Real Madrid was an easy one and the Los Blancos have signaled their intentions with the demolishing of Zaragoza. I think it will pay to follow Madrid a lot this year even at prohibitively low odds because they look certain to win a very high percentage of their matches. So long as the tricky games are avoided.

I am truly amazed by the achievements of Christiano Ronaldo. I mentioned it before; Messi is very possibly the better and more explosive player, but Ronaldo is the Most Valuable Player (MVP) to his team. Messi can count on a cast of superstars to score the wonderful goals he's getting us used to every week, but Ronaldo does not enjoy such formidable teammates. So bagging so many hat-tricks for fun is really quite an achievement.

I expect Barcelona to match up to Real Madrid's winning start by beating Villareal in a few hours. They are recommended as an outright win. It will be a case of one of the teams setting up the tempo and the other team following. As I was mentioning, it will be rewarding to back both teams many times as long as they can be avoided on their occasional off-nights.

In the Premier League, the Manchester teams are leading the pack, so far validating my previews that they will be the main protagonists for the title this year. What else can I say that has not been written about the demolishing of Arsenal by the Red Devils? Man Utd are in truly great form and are to be followed closely on what seems to be a good winning run for them. Arsenal aren't "that bad" but the future does not look good for either management or the team's prospects for trophies. In my opinion, losing Fabregas and Nasri has broken the backbone of this team. They need Wilshere and their defensive corps back.

What about Man City? They have a resurgent Dzeko on fire and even better things seem to be coming from them. It will be folly to punt against them in any way. Barcelona, Real Madrid, Man Utd, Man City; to me, these are the best teams in Europe for now. By far, and for much of the unfolding season.

Win: Barcelona

The Grand Final

Saturday sees Wembley takes centre-stage for the "biggest show on Earth" as football titans Barcelona and Man Utd clash in the Champions League (CL) final. So much has been written on this final, from Barcelona's fantastic football to Man Utd's rigid defence. All angles are being covered in the media with the aim to predict the outcome of the match. Even the Wall Street Journal is having its say on what makes Barca the super team they are.

There won't be a recommendation from me because this game could turn into anything. At current odds, Barcelona is too short. On the other hand, who would be brave enough to say that a Man Utd win is a certainty? However spectacular these 2 teams are, there isn't even a certainty that the football that will be played will be of great quality. A final with such high stakes can transform the greatest offensive team into a defensive giant.

What is certain is that Barcelona is the best team in the world going into this game. They play the best football, they have the best players, and they have someone called Lionel Messi. But in a final played in 90 minutes, extra time and penalities, they are beatable, just like Real Madrid beat them in the Copa del Rey. They are not invincible. 

I've repeated many times that Man Utd have over-achieved this year, and they will have to over-achieve even more to have a chance to win the final. They have something intangible that Barcelona maybe don't have (or more appropriately, haven't needed to have); a fighting never-say-die spirit, inherited from their manager, that always gives them a chance even when they seem to be after a losing cause. Think the CL 99 League final against Bayern Munich at the Nou Camp!

Two years ago, Barca beat Man Utd 2-0 in the final at Rome. Most observers agree that on the match overall, this was the right result. The better part of the observers have also noted that Man Utd dominated the match in the first 10 minutes and had 2 great chances to score, before Samuel Eto'o turned the match on its head with a brilliant goal. I am not saying that Man Utd would have won if they had scored first in the first 10 minutes, but it is certain that the match would have been different than the 1-sided proposition we saw after that first goal.

So can Man Utd do something this time? I believe they can. Historically, their manager Ferguson has relished being the final underdog. His Aberdeen side beat mighty Real Madrid in the 1983 European Cup Winners Cup final. His Man Utd team won its first European trophy under his helm by beating heavily-favored Barcelona in the 1991 version. It will be a matter of how he comes up with the tactics again to stifle a potent opponent. Which brings me to a momentous but yet not-too-much-talked point of this final; where is Barcelona's weak point, if there's any? For me it's the central defense, notably the Pique-Puyol axis.

Let there be no misinterpretation, Pique and Puyol form a solid defence, almost but not quite as stingy as the Ferdinand-Vidic pairing. Barca's football means that everything starts from Pique to its ever-mobile midfielders. The classy defender has been likened to Beckenbauer for his very stylish and mobile style. The fact that Barcelona have 70% of ball possession in their matches means that their defence is rarely ever subject to constant testing. Real Madrid has shown in a few of the El Clasico encounters that they can be stretched and exposed and the Ronaldo goal that settled the Copa del Rey was a case where the defenders were all at sea. I believe Alex Ferguson will have witnessed that and this is an area where Chicharito's speed and intelligence can cause serious damage.

In another twist of fate, it was Ferguson who let go of Pique to his native Barcelona because of the surge of Johnny Evans in the reserve ranks. A seemingly innocuous deal that in hindsight, has transformed the Catalans into a powerhouse and changed the football world. On Saturday, the Man Utd coach will be aiming his strikers to do his rare "bad" decision some justice and beat his former pupil.

My hope for this final is that the Pedro's, Busquet's and Alves' keep their playacting on the side so that the referee-ing does not have any impact on the result. I've recommended both teams many times in this CL campaign and they have done all my recommendations justice. I believe this game will be decided out of a brilliant play somewhere. If it's decided on penalties, so be it, that's part of football.

This is a final and I'm going to have a punt regardless of whether it's safe or not. I will go lightweight for Man Utd +0.5 +1.0 on the Asian Handicap. Not a recommendation; just that I think the stars are aligned for them to win it in the end. Van der Sar's last game will have him pumped up. Ji-Sung Park, the da Silvas, Valencia, Chicharito, Berbatov, etc for a first CL medal. I wouldn't mind that outcome. Come on Man Utd!

Another Messi spectacular

As feared, the Real Madrid v/s Barcelona game never hit the heights, and the Catalans have now taken a serious option for the final. In fact, I cannot see how the Los Blancos can overturn this tie, given the way they were shackled at the Bernabeu. We are going towards a Barcelona v/s Man Utd final, which is a great advert for football as long as Barcelona play football without the persistent player-acting and bickering and ranting to referees. Regarding Pepe's red-card, at first, I thought it was harsh, but then looking at the replay, it seems a deserved one. Obviously Dani Alves made the most of it, just like show experts Sergio and Pedro, but I don't think the referee can be blamed on that one.  The game itself was decided by the genius of Lionel Messi. That second goal was just a cracker. I don't think anyone in the game today can do such zig-zag runs with the ball at that speed.

On Thursday, the semi-finals of the Europa League start, with the best 3 Portuguese teams in action. I like Benfica's chances at home to Braga. Both clubs are a notch behind Porto, but Braga's away form is not particularly good. So I recommend Benfica as a draw-no-bet.

Draw-no-bet: Benfica