Irish Derby 2013 - Ruler to convince the world

Although he won the Epsom Derby quite convincingly, Ruler of the World still has doubters about whether he is the real deal and is indeed the creme de la creme of the Classic division. He will have the opportunity to put the question to bed in Saturday's Irish Derby.

Some would say that Battle of Marengo was unleashed too soon at Epsom which ruined his chances at the finish. The way that ROTW stormed by in the closing stages seems to indicate that he still had the race in control had the sprint to the finish line started later than actual. The fact that ROTW is still undefeated in 3 races and looks a progressive type means that he is the deserved favourite for the Curragh Classic. At evens, he might be a little short, but he definitely should be in the first 3, albeit without regular partner Ryan Moore in the saddle.

I believe the main challenge will come from Libertarian, Sugar Boy or Trading Leather. Derby runner-up Libertarian looked a very good closer at Epsom which looked to indicate that the St Leger might be up his alley. He will certainly appreciate the less-undulating Curragh track and cannot be dismissed in any trifecta.

There is a slight question mark on Trading Leather at a mile and a half distance. He's produced high-class races at a mile and ten furlongs this year and he might have too much speed for the Classic distance. He's from the top drawer though and very possibly the best 3-year old in Jim Bolger's care after Dawn Approach. If he gets the distance, he represents a good value each-way chance.

Sugar Boy beat Libertarian in the Sandown Classic Trial at ten furlongs. He's been either in first or second places in his last 6 races, and has made the frame in all 8 of his outings. He will relish the distance. It remains to be seen how to interpret his 64 day absence from the tracks; will he be too fresh or just fresh enough to run down quite a few opponents that might still not fully recovered from the Epsom race?

I think that if ROTW runs his race, he should win. For the placings, I see value in both Sugar Boy and Trading Leather. One stands not to lose if at least one of them makes it in the first 3.

Win: Ruler of the World
Place: Trading Leather/Sugar Boy 

Meydan Week 4

Moataz came in a game second, fairly beaten by 3 lengths. It was a case of the winner being too good.

Thursday is the 4th round of the Dubai Carnival and overall, it looks to be a quiet week for the Mike de Kock stable (besides Musir's race) since the conditioner is probably more focused on this Saturday's J&B Met meeting in Cape Town! Godolphin send out some decent types and although they don't seem as intimidating as those in previous weeks, they still have a stronghold on the market. Here are my views of the races.

The first race looks to be a very competitive handicap with nothing standing out clearly; so it would be speculative to guess on the outcome, better stay away.

The second race sees the first run of African Story under the Blue colors. He's previously been under the Andre Fabre care and has relatively good form in Pattern races,  having been close to Moonlight Cloud and Sahpresa. This looks a decent contest for his seasonal return and I recommend him as a Place.

I would caution against going all out on favourite Time Prisoner in the third race. Looking at last year's form, he alternates the good and the bad races. Each of his wins was followed by an unplaced finish. He won a fortnight ago, and could still win or place tomorrow, but just be wary of these blemishes in his track record.

Races No 5 and 7 are thoroughly-competitive handicaps that can go to several, so I'll abstain again.

The main race of the day is the Group 2 Dubai Duty Free in race 6 where Musir will lock horns with the high-class Presvis, City Style and Rajsaman. I believe the 9 furlongs distance is the optimum trip for Musir. Having shown he's still a top horse 2 weeks ago, he's again the horse to beat and I cannot see him out of the first 3. Presvis is possibly one of the most difficult horses to ride. He can only be asked for action at the right time at the finish so that he does not idle after having burst through the pack; a top horse that cannot be always trusted to produce given his non-versatility.Ryan Moore knows him to perfection and has a fantastic record with him, but they are still dependent on the right pace going for them. I believe the City Style will be stretched by the distance and Rajsaman will have lots to prove for his new connections. A Place on Musir looks safe and I think going for the outright Win looks a worthy risk as well.

Win: Musir
Place: African Story

Huge Week-end

A fantastic week-end of racing and football is on the menu, and it's hoping that the punts turn out to be as great as well.

Let's start with the Breeders' Cup where I cannot see Goldikova coming out of the placings. Draw is good, track is good and she's encountered better opposition. I can foresee just 2 negatives, if any. That she could get boxed in the straight from the rails. But I hardly see that happening with a seasoned jockey like Peslier. The second negative would be if the turf turned too soft. It looks like it will be a mixture of good to yielding; obviously the firmer, the better for her, but the ground conditions should be alright for her. I think the Queen is set to win her last race, and if she doesn't, she should be in the second or third. A Place recommendation on Goldikova looks safe to me.

In the same race, I re-iterate my previous observation that Strong Suit does not have the credentials to win this race. He's too short at 4/1 and is a big lay in my books. I cannot see him winning a match-bet against Goldikova. So I recommend a Lay to Win on him, and I also confidently recommend Goldikova in a match-bet against him.

The main race is the one everyone wants to win and So You Think will carry Europe's or Australasia's hopes, whichever angle you look at it. It will be a tall order for the son of High Chaparral. Pedigree-wise, the dirt will not suit. He's going to sport blinkers which he hasn't done since a couple of years back. He comes over a difficult October with 2 hard races in the Arc and Champion Stakes. Basically, he's got hardly any decent rest for this race. Remains to be seen how jockey Ryan Moore will cope on the dirt surface. To be seen whether trainer O'Brien has mismanaged him yet again. All questions marks of note, but if there is a horse who can do it against the odds, it will be him. His critics pound him for not being the super horse he was billed out to be Down Under. Maybe he disappointed in 3 losses in Europe, but to me, there were excuses to all of them, which I've covered at length before. He gained my admiration when nearly winning the Champion Stakes after only 13 days rest from the Arc. I hope he wins the Classic, but it is more hope than confidence.

Uncle Mo is the favourite of the race and although he is possibly the best miler on dirt, he will have to stretch to cover the 10 furlongs. Any chance he had of winning was scuppered with his outside draw, in my estimate. He is a stalker of a horse that is never off the pace and things will be harder for him from the outside post. His odds are way too short and it makes sense to oppose him; I recommend to Lay him as Win.

In football, I cannot think of a better way for Man Utd to celebrate Alex Ferguson's extraordinary 25 years at the helm, by beating Sunderland. Steve Bruce's men have no chance of winning this. If they are lucky, they can squeeze in a point. But I believe the Red Devils will win this and recommend them as an outright Win.

Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City are all recommended as draw-no-bets as I don't see them being bothered by the inferior opposition they will be facing.

In La Liga, Real Madrid is a banker to beat Osasuna. I just cannot see them being held by Osasuna, so I recommend the Los Blancos as an outright Win. Barcelona face an arguably tougher task in Athletico Bilbao but they should prevail at the end, and are also recommended as a straight Win.

Win: Real Madrid, Barcelona, Man Utd

Draw-no-bet: Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City

Place: Goldikova

Match-bet: Goldikova

Lay: Strong Suit, Uncle Mo

Week-end racing

England drew and qualified for the Euro 2012, but the main talking point of the game was Rooney's red card. Does anyone wonder why England hasn't won something of note for a long time? It has brilliant players like Beckham, Rooney, yet when the chips are down, the brilliance turns into stupidity. Rooney's red against Montenegro was not as serious as Beckham's red against Argentina, or the same Rooney's red against Portugal, but it outlined the same problem again. Americans call them chokers when their sports stars screw up under pressure. This is worst than choking, it is plain idiocy.

Manager Capello calling Rooney fit to play mentally has to be one of the worst public managerial calls. It was a bold decision for him to make and say, and boy was he ever proven wrong in front of skeptics who rightfully questioned the state of the player following his dad's arrest 24 hours earlier, ironically, for a betting scam involving a red card. Really, the petulant striker's sending off was really written somewhere out there!

This week-end is all about racing with club football leaving the centre stage to the Euro qualifiers until next week. On Saturday, I like Strong Suit's chances in the first race at Newmarket. He's clearly the class of the race and will sport a penalty in this rather weak Group 2 contest. This colt from the Hannon stable is definitely better since his wind operation and he should definitely be in the first 3. I recommend him as an each-way.

The Dewhurst is the main race on the Newmarket race card and Power is the deserving favourite having bagged 4 wins out of 5, including 2 strong Group races in the National Stakes and Coventry Stakes. If Ryan Moore is close to his best abilities after his long layoff, he should have no problem steering the Oasis Dream colt in the first 3. The main opponents look to be the unbeaten Bronterre and Ektihaam, both of whom are stepping up in class for the first time. A Place on Power is the recommendation.

Finally, Gio Ponti runs in the Group 1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keenland, U.S. The 2-time U.S turf champion is looking for his first win of the year after good runner-up efforts in his last 2 races. Although now six, the Tale of the Cat colt is still one of the leading runners at a mile and over in the U.S on turf. He always gives the best account of himself, so can never be disregarded. The race has also attracted Zoffany from the Ballydoyle stable. If he's anywhere close to his best, Gio Ponti should win this. Even if one of the younger brigade were to usurp him, he should still be in the first 3. I recommend him as a strong Place.

Place: Power, Gio Ponti
Each-way: Strong Suit.

Title decider

Retainer won under a great Ryan Moore ride, so the  recommendation was good. Kieren Fallon tried everything on the runner-up but the Hannon colt was just too good. Moore v/s Fallon, I reckon we'll see more of  this rivalry as the season progresses, since they seem to be the main protagonists for the jockey title, according to most.

Back to football where I was reading with interest that a recent survey showed that 80% of surveyed managers in the Premier League thought that Man Utd would go on to win the title this year (75% of the managers were surveyed). I am not sure exactly what date the survey was done and what were the standings at that point, but 80% seems a rather high number considering that not so long ago, everyone was saying that Arsenal had the much easier remaining fixtures. So I just went to look at those to have an idea of my expectations for both teams from their remaining games. Below are the potential points (in brackets) I attribute to them.

Arsenal Total: 18.
Blackburn (3), Blackpool (3), Liverpool (3), Tottenham (0), Bolton (1), Man Utd (1), Stoke (3), Aston Villa (3), Fulham (1)

Man Utd Total: 16
West Ham (1), Fulham (3), Newcastle (1), Everton (3), Arsenal (1), Chelsea (1), Blackburn (3), Blackpool (3)

According to the above exercise, then yes, it seems that Man Utd looks good to win the title as it has a 5 point advantage already. Obviously this system is very flawed since my point attribution is speculative and based on their current form. So many things can change in the coming weeks, such as injuries, loss of form etc. Arsenal have the advantage of having only to focus on the Premier League while Man Utd are still in 3 cups. Many uncertainties will come into play; like who'd thought Arsenal will lose 2 points at West Brom while Utd will win with 10 men against Bolton with 2 minutes remaining last week-end?

However, there are 2 things that seem more or less certain though. First, the match at the Emirates will play a huge factor in the title race. This is a 6-point match. Second, let's go back to the overwhelming 80% manager vote for Man Utd. It's called the Ferguson factor. When everything is on the line, most would rather have Ferguson as the manager than Wenger. Man Utd have that fear factor, the feeling that they will grind out results. Arsenal have the choke factor, they have yet to prove they can duke it out with anyone no matter how difficult the conditions are. There are no easy games at this point, even when they are battling Stoke or Blackpool.

Again, it would pure speculation to say that Man Utd has it won already. That's why there is no recommendation from me here. But they are definitely looking good, particularly that their recent injury crisis seems to have considerably alleviated with many key players coming back.

Shades of Ipi Tombe

When I look at the race card for the Dubai Duty Free at Meydan on Saturday, I can't help thinking about Ipi Tombe, possibly its greatest winner. This is the mare that put Mike de Kock on the international map by winning this Group 1 race in 2003. In my opinion, the winner on Saturday will come out of the trio of mares that are entered in that race; River Jetez, Raihana, and Strawberrydaiquiri. Sorry colts, it seems to me the mares are stronger.

River Jetez has acclimatized well in Dubai and has 2 strong runs behind her. She should have won both of the races and it's well documented how she was unlucky in her first race. Her second race was impressive, and she showed a turn of foot (like brother Pocket Power) in the straight to win quite comfortably. She always gives the impression that she does her best. The only question mark for me is her jockey Faydherbe, who is her regular rider in South Africa, but who does not seem to have much experience at the Meydan track. If he does not get the mare caught into traffic, she has a major chance.

Raihana thrives in Dubai and also always gives a honest account of herself. The distance will suit her and because she's always in the whereabouts at the finish line, it's hard to overlook her. She definitely has Place claims and with luck in running, might win the race altogether.

Strawberrydaiquiri is for me, the dark horse of the race. On her Meydan debut, she was squeezed and checked twice in the straight and still finished 5th behind River Jetez. Without her traffic problems, she would have been much closer than the 4.5 lengths that separated the two. The experience of Johhny Murtagh will help and I think she's overly over-priced and can easily cause a shock.

What about the colts, you say? While Mendip is a proven Carnival winner on Tapeta, he's untried and unproven on turf. He's by Harlan Holiday, so I would not get too over excited about him running on turf. If he acts on it, then he can play a role, but that is too much speculation. Wigmore Hall is a good horse but the distance is on the short side for him. Presvis and Ryan Moore form a formidable duo and can take the spoils if they don't meet traffic as they usually do.

At this point, I really see the mares playing major roles in this one, and I'll wait for the trainers' comments until Friday to have an idea on their form and condition etc, and make a final decision on the recommendations.