Sports Galore - Derbies, UCL and French Open

A supremely jam-packed week-end of sports is on the horizon.

The most captivating one of the action is probably the Belmont Stakes where American Pharaoh will try to enter US racing folklore by winning the Triple Crown. He is clearly the best colt of his generation and I can see only two in the field that could potentially stop his way to racing immortality; Mubtaahij and Frosted. The former is the UAE Derby winner and although he did honorably in the Kentucky Derby by finishing eighth, he looked rather one pace. He will most probably be in a better disposition for Sarurday's Classic as his preparations have gone smoother and he's been in the surroundings for about 3 weeks. If the Pharaoh does not fire, Mubtaahij should be here to pick up the pieces. Frosted, I believe, is the main threat to Baffert's colt. The way he finished at Churchill Downs leads me to believe that the one and a half mile of the Belmont will be to his advantage. The Godophin representative has the advantage of having bypassed the Preakness, thus will be freshened up for the race. Pharaoh should have no problem with the distance. He is the classiest of the bunch. My only issue with him, as with any horse that has gone through the gruelling Triple Crown series, is his freshness. The last furlong or so of the race will be the toughest of his life. That's where his heart and courage will count, but most importantly his chances will heavily depend on how the other contenders are coping with the race and distance. That's where Frosted and Mubtaahij come into play. For selections, I cannot see Pharaoh out of the placings, so he's a banker place punt. I think with some luck, he can win as well. He's by far the likeliest Triple Crown I can think of in a long long time. 

The real Derby takes place at Epsom and I can only see 3 horses playing major roles here; Golden Horn, Jack Hobbs and Hans Holbein. Golden Horn is the unbeaten favourite and he looks the ideal type for the undulations of Epsom. He settles beautifully in his races and the manner he disposed of many of Saturday's rivals in the Dante, makes him hard to oppose. My only possible negative is that his pedigree does not scream stamina, so he might be stretched out in the last furlong. Being by Cape Cross and a mare of Dubai Destination seems to make this high-class colt best suited for races of 10 furlongs. Still, he's the clear deserved favourite. Stablemate Jack Hobbs could be his main danger. The son of Halling lost his invincibility to Golden Horn in the Dante after impressive earlier wins. There should be no stamina problems in his pedigree but the fact that Golden Horn beat him so impressively in their last encounter makes it impossible to look for a reverse in placings unless there has been a spectacular progress in this 3-weeks span on his part. Finally, Hans Holbein is the winner of the Chester Vase and will have no issue with the distance being a son of Montjeu. However, he looks to be Ballydoyle's third string as Ryan Moore and JP O'Brien have selected Giovanni Canaletto and Kilimanjaro respectively. A place punt on Hans Holbein might be more realistic but still profitable. Golden Horn is the pick to win it at the finish.

French Open tennis and I expect Djokovic to first finish up with Murray in their resumed semi-final match. Then, he will probably face his toughest match of the tournament against Wawrinka, but he should have enough in the tank to see it through as well. Nole to be on top of the world on Sunday.

Finally, Champions League football at its nirvana with Barcelona taking on Juventus, the winner seeing the coronation of a perfect season a.k.a the much coveted Treble. It seems mostly everyone is on the Barcelona bandwagon but I don't think it's a done deal by any means. Sure, the Catalans boast the incredible front-line of Messi, Suarez and Neymar that can score at any time. Juventus are not that good at the back and with the last-minute defection of main central defender Chellini, they look sure to be scored against. However, the Italians cannot be dismissed lightly and if the score is still level in the late stages, it won't be surprising if they are the ones making a breakthrough. It might be fool-hardy to go against Barcelona and Messi but their odds are mightily too short against opponents that are by no-means second-string. If a choice is to be made, Barcelona be it.

Football Preview

A couple of great match-ups dominate the EPL and La Liga this week-end. Chelsea and Man City, the 2 front-runners for the Premier League, at least from the bookies standpoint, clash at Stamford Bridge, while the El Clasico is the un-missable feature in Spain. Here are some picks.

Crystal Palace v/s Arsenal. There is no basis to back the Eagles here. They lost manager Halloway during the week and I can't see the caretaker manager making a marked difference to the squad, particularly that other managers are being publicly sought after. Arsenal lost against Dortmund in the Champions League and will be keen to resume their winning ways against lesser opposition. Arsenal is a Win selection.

Aston Villa v/s Everton. I like the hosts' chances here with the possible return of Benteke in the starting eleven. Everton can be deemed lucky to have scraped past Hull last week and they are certainly a work in progress under Martinez. This could very well end up in a draw and I fancy to nick it if there is to be a winner. So, the Villains are a  draw-no-bet selection.

Liverpool v/s West Brom. I can't believe Liverpool are near evens to land a top 4 spot and in the 9's to win the league. I say lay on both, because in my mind, they are not good enough to finish in the first 4. Granted, it's still early in the season, but the prices are attractive enough to lay at the moment. WBA's visit is a good occasion for the Kops to land another 3 points although if there is to be a shocking result this week-end, it could be with WBA taking the spoils. I'll avoid this one.

Man Utd v/s Stoke. This should end with a home win to get the Red Devils back on track in the league.

Tottenham v/s Hull. Spurs shouldn't take Hull for easy victims as the visitors are a good disciplined side that is hard to break down. I can't see the Tigers winning this but they will definitely battle to get at least a draw from the match. Spurs look to be safe draw-no-bet selection.

Chelsea v/s Man City. History has it that Mourinho has never lost an EPL game at Stamford Bridge. They are in good form and went to thrash Shalke in Germany during the week. Man City finally won on the road last Saturday but this is going to be one of their toughest visits of the season. This is a 6-pointer game and this game will probably be decided with a moment of genius or inattention from either side. With Mourinho's record, it's hard to go against Chelsea as hosts, so the Blues are a strong draw-no-bet selection at current odds.

Finally, the El Clasico in Spain is an intriguing one with the 2 giant clubs under the helm of new management. There is no doubt that Ancelotti and Martino are still working the kinks of their side and won't have their typical A-team. Neymar is still finding his feet at Barca and Bale is far from showing his real weapons at Madrid. Being the hosts and with the return of Messi, the Catalans hold a slight advantage and look good value with current draw-no-bet odds.

Win: Arsenal, Man Utd

Draw-no-bet: Barcelona, Chelsea, Tottenham, Aston Villa

European Week-end Football

Some of my thoughts on this week-end's matches.

Tottenham v/s Chelsea. The reunion of Mourinho and ex-staffer Villas-Boas. The press might have tried, but no-one knows the level of break-down between the 2 managers. Maybe they'll give a better clue during the pre-match or post-match handshakes. On the pitch, I think Chelsea will be in for a torrid time. Spurs are no slouch at home and given their level of form, I like their chances to get at least a point out of this game. They are the draw-no-bet selection of this week-end.

Aston Villa v/s Man City. The hosts will be missing their key weapon Benteke for the next few games and that is not a good omen for them. Man City are currently firing on all cylinders and their demolition of neighbours Man Utd last week-end will have given a mighty spring in their step. They should get out of Villa Park with full points. Straight win for the Citizens.

Fulham v/s Cardiff. It's been a up and down start of the season so far for the Cottagers and they will relish the visit of Cardiff for some much-needed 3 points. Berbatov and Bent can do serious damage on their best day, and I reckon the hosts represent great value for the win at current odds here.

Man Utd v/s West Brom. The probability of WBA coming out of Old Trafford looks bleak. Now that their matches against the big runs are over, this could be the start of a winning run for the Red Devils. They should win this, particularly with RVP back.

Southampton v/s Crystal Palace. Soton are a tough team to break down at home and there is no reason to believe that Palace will reverse poor opposition records at the St Mary's. The hosts should build on last Saturday's impressive win at Anfield and get the 3 points.

Sunderland v/s Liverpool. The Black Cats are a team in disarray. Obviously, Di Canio was never going to be a long-term fit. Suarez and Sturridge will relish this clash; I cannot see Liverpool getting beaten in this one. I see value backing them with a straight win.

In Spain, I see wins for Barcelona and Valencia. I like Real Sociedad as a draw-no-bet against Sevilla.

In the Bundesliga, Dortmund and Bayern should get full points and continue their duel at the top of the table.

Win: Man City, Fulham, Man Utd, Southampton, Liverpool, Barcelona, Valencia, Dortmund, Bayern
Draw-no-bet: Tottenham, Real Sociedad.

Choker tag on the line

The UCL final at Wembley is the main event of the week-end, pitting the 2 German teams Bayern Munich and Dortmund. On paper and based on form, Bayern looks difficult to beat and is the overwhelming favourite. But looks are very deceiving. For those that think that the Munich team will win it easily, consider this; Bayern have not beaten Dortmund in a league game for the past couple of years. They have lost more UCL finals than they've won. They lost when to Porto in 1987 when practically no-one thought the Portuguese had the slightest chance. Last year, they lost the final to Chelsea when playing at their vaunted Allianz Arena. They also lost to Man Utd during the Red Devils' Triple Crown coronation in 1999, and again to Mourinho's Inter Milan in the 2010 Final. In comparison, Dortmund's sole UCL final appearance and victory came as a massive under-dog against Juventus in 1997.

So, the word "choker" springs to mind when The Bavarians get to the final. But that's not to say that this year  might not be different; Bayern really look overwhelmingly strong this year. They crushed the Bundesliga early and annihilated Barcelona on their way to Wembley. This is a team that is really on the ascendancy and will be peaking in the coming years, provided upcoming coach Guardiola does not wreck them.

Against them is a strong Dortmund team that has the belief that this Cup is theirs for the taking. They were nearly dead and buried against Malaga, yet conjured up 2 goals in injury-time to make it through. They were not supposed to overcome mighty Real Madrid, yet they outplayed and outscored them. On its best day, this team can beat anyone, even Bayern. They are led by a maestro motivator in manager Klopp. They have world-class players like Lewandowski, Reus and Gotze that can open up any defence. But here's one thing; Gotze will miss the final due to a hamstring injury. That's a massive blow for Dortmund. He's their playmaker and although he's Bayern-bound next year, he would have been a real threat for the men in yellow.

The pressure will definitely be more on Bayern. They have to score first and preferably early to settle their nerves. Their ability to impose their game will be instrumental. They have beaten their opponents in the German Cup this season which will have given them belief that they can win the game in 90 minutes. Dortmund will most probably sit back and rely on their deadly counter-attack. Anything can happen in a final; the team that makes of the most of its chances will win. There's no certainty here; but I think that with some luck, Bayern is ready to dispel the myths and confirm the current thinking that they are indeed the best in Europe. Whether in full or injury-time, or on penalties, my feeling is that the Bavarians will prevail.

Changing Landscape

This end of football season in the European leagues looks set to be the watershed to the impending massive changes to bestow upon them next year. With the great SAF retiring, Man Utd will be under a new manager after 27 years. But the winds of change have affected many other European powerhouses as well; in England, Chelsea looks set for the second coming of Mourinho and Pellegrini has apparently been given the reins at Man City. The best 3 teams in England will be under new leaders. In Italy, Milan is on the verge of getting rid of Allegri after a so-so first season. Inter are on the look-out for a new coach as well. In Spain, the much-maligned Mourinho has finally been booted out of Madrid, to the delight of Spanish fans in general. Malaga will also look for a new manager after the departure of Pellegrini. In Germany, Guardiola is taking over the powerful Bayern Munich. Finally, so far, in France, PSG are looking to replace want-away Ancelotti for whom Real Madrid came calling.

We are talking here of 8 big teams that played in this year's Champions League. This is bound to affect not only their domestic leagues but next year's dynamics in the UCL as well. It is too early to say whether teams like Barcelona will have the advantage of continuity with them. After all, much of it will depend on player personnel as well. Rooney looks to be out of Man Utd, Dortmund will be losing some key players, Real Madrid is already working on their list of surplus to requirements. And probably more importantly, Neymar will make his European debut, quite possibly under a Barcelona shirt.

English football itself is moving into a new era with the retirement of Scholes, Beckham and Owen. While their careers were already on the wane for the past few years, there is no doubt that their names are etched forever in England folklore for their contributions to the game. They were some of the finest to ever don a Lions shirt and have made their indelible mark.

The carousel round of managers and players will make for a hectic transfer summer season . A new dawn of football will start in August. The retired ones will be missed but football will hold its intrigue more than ever.

Comeback, only a dream for Real

Tonight is a momentous point in the career of Jose Mourinho; do the near-impossible and thrash Dortmund by 3 goals at least to qualify Real Madrid to the Champions League final. Fail to do so and be destined to be  remembered as an also-ran, or worse, a failure, as a  Madrid coach. Self-confessed philosophical latter words from the Portuguese himself. For, that would leave him with just one league and one Copa del Rey titles (make that two Copas if they win this year's) to boast during his short tenure at Madrid. Very far from the ambitious cries of European glory that characterized his appointment a few years ago.

The European Cup is not short of great comebacks from the men in white. In the late 80's, it seemed inevitable they would make the difference at the Bernabeu after a heavy defeat on their travels;Anderlecht, Inter, Moenchengladbach have painful memories of these reversals. This would be the inspiration for the Los Blancos for tonight's game. Can they also do it? I don't think so. For every goal Madrid is bound to score, Dortmund can respond with one as well. They scored 2 on their last visit during the preliminary stages. This is a team that is mentally strong enough to withstand the apprehension of stepping into the cauldron of the Bernabeu. Their unorthodox manager Klopp will have readied them for that.

Real will depend on Ronaldo as usual. Much will depend on his disposition for the game as he's officially nursing a thigh injury. I have hardly any doubt Madrid will score; I actually think they can get 2 or possibly 3. But Dortmund will have their chances to score as well. My intuition of an all-German final before the start of the semis looks good; unless the referee has some other devious plan in mind, Dortmund should go through and the odds currently on offer are an absolute bargain.

In the other semi-final, I mentioned before that Barcelona have no chance of going through against the Bayern machine. Even with a Messi at 100%.

To qualify: Borussia Dortmund

Bayern to overwhelm Barcelona

Nice pay-day on Monday; I've been mentioning on these pages since January to pile on Man Utd for Premier League glory and they made it official after thumping Aston Villa. Nice outcome one month before the season actually ends! Whatever is said about the quality of this team with respect to its predecessors, I think this team has the potential to get even better next year and no doubt that winning the Champions League will be seriously on their agenda. But this talk is for next season.

Talking of UCL, Tuesday sees Bayern Munich host Barcelona for the first semi-final, arguably these 2 teams being the best in the world at the moment. My thoughts on the UCL at this stage is very much against popular thought at this stage; I think one of the Germans teams will win it and it could very well be an all-German final. The market obviously thinks otherwise and sees either of the Spanish giants winning it and favo urs an all-Spanish final.

Bayern Munich have won the Bundesliga in an unprecedented canter. They have been dominating  in both the domestic league or in Europe, even though they can show the occasional blip like in the return leg against Arsenal at the elimination stage. This team is possibly the best organized of the remaining four and strong in all departments. This team is strong mentally as well with the likes of Schweinsteiger, Robben, Lahm, Ribery and Gomez in their prime. The only thing that they lack against Barcelona is a Messi/Ronaldo-type player that can change a game at will. The arrival of Gotze, by the way, next year, will only reinforce this team.

I subscribe to the growing belief that Barcelona are past their prime; they are still one of the best, if not still the best, teams out there, but it's tough to see them improve on what they've already achieved. This year, they've shown that they are hugely dependent on Messi and if the Argentinian is not on song, they can be in a lot of trouble. That spells trouble against Bayern, particularly that Messi has just come back from injury and will not be at his utmost best against the Bavarians.

Bayern look strongly favoured for this encounter, based on the form of the two teams in the past few weeks. The Germans' best hope of going through is to make the difference at home, with full knowledge that the Spaniards have shown great vulnerability on a few of their travels. If they can limit a Messi who's bound to be not at his best, they must have a great chance of winning this first leg.

Bayern is a safe draw-no-bet. At current odds, for a riskier venture but greater return, I would be inclined to go straight for the Bayern win. I think Barcelona are in for a difficult night at the Olympic stadium.

Win: Bayern Munich
Draw-no-bet: Bayern Munich

European Preview

Man Utd should put the title beyond any lingering doubt next Monday when they welcome their neighbours Man City. I cannot see them being beaten at home and they look safe as a draw-no-bet.

It is more the relegation battle that is the centre of interest since the Red Devils have been cruising in the league for a while now. Norwich have massive chance to advance their credentials for staying up when they welcome slumping Swansea. It is a must 3 points for the Canaries and I expect them to at least get a point from the match. They are a draw-no-bet selection.

Liverpool entertain West Ham and I see it worth siding with the hosts here. West Ham will be missing a few key players for this game while the Kops will only missing Raheem Sterling. Suarez could get back into some serious goal scoring in there. Liverpool are a Win selection.

QPR v/s Wigan is a 6-pointer game. Rangers cannot afford anything other than a win here. Wigan are going through their usual last-ditch escape rituals and still have an error of margin to play with. Rangers should be able to dictate the play but the main question is whether they can take their chances. The visitors will be all happy to pounce on the counter-attack, on which they are particularly effective. At current odds, I see it worth siding with Rangers as a draw-no-bet.

In Spain, I see wins for Barcelona, Real Madrid and Valencia, and it's best value to have them in an accumulator.

Win: Liverpool
Draw-no-bet: QPR, Norwich, Man Utd
Accumulator: Barcelona, Real Madrid, Valencia

UCL Quarters

The UCL quarters start today with 2 mouth-watering clashes between PSG and Barcelona, and Bayern against Juventus.

PSG v/s Barcelona. PSG will soon become a European heavy-weight behind the backing of Qatar's coffers. They are a team in the making and are not yet up to the likes of Barcelona.They look set to win the French Ligue 1 and have done well to reach this stage of the UCL. But the buck should stop here. Their main weapon is Ibrahimovic and Barcelona will put their focus to shut him down and hence subdue the Parisians' premier goalscoring threat. I believe they should do so and let Messi and co dictate things at the other end of the pitch. Barcelona are not invincible and will be keen not to repeat their nightmare of San Siro a few weeks back where they surrendered 2 goals. The return of manager Tito Villanova behind the bench will no doubt strengthen the team and I advise them as a solid draw-no-bet.

Bayern is crushing the Bundesliga but Juventus will be as strong a team as they will face all season. The Italians will certainly try to squeeze at least a goal on this trip so that they can make the difference back home. This looks to be the tightest match-up of the quarter-finals and on quality, the Germans have the edge only marginally. They will be looking to make a strong statement at home and I see them as a strong draw-no-bet as well.

Draw-no-bet: Barcelona, Bayern Munich

European football preview

The directive that started months ago to keep on piling on Man Utd for the league continues un-abated this week-end as they stand a great chance of further widening the gap at the top. They will most certainly beat a manager-less Reading while City are not sure to come un-scathed from their visit to Everton. Here are my week-end picks.

Man Utd v/s Reading. No contest there, goals should be aplenty with the strikers in red looking for a field day. Van Persie has been quiet of late, so this is an ideal platform for him to bang them in. Easy Win selection for the hosts.

Aston Villa v/s QPR. A 6-pointer between 2 teams fighting relegation. Villa are better than their current position suggests and will be keen to add an important 3 points to their tally. QPR have won 2 games in a row, which must have buoyed them greatly in their bid to secure what seemed an unlikely survival in the top flight just a few weeks ago. This game can really go either way and I feel the game will be decided on a decisive action on either side. Better sit and watch this one.

Everton v/s Man City. The visitors will be missing captain Kompany and striker Aguero. Everton were shocked at home to Wigan in the FA Cup last week and manager Moyes will be keen to right the ship, to keep their faint hopes for a Top 4 finish alive. Everton have a good record at home and I believe they will seriously test the Citizens. I fancy them with a +1 goal handicap.

Southampton v/s Liverpool. The Kops are the team form of the moment with striker Suarez in sparkling form. The hosts are far from easy meat at home where they've beaten top teams and even Man Utd needed late goals from Van Persie to secure a win over there. The Saints are not safe from relegation yet and they will rely every bit on striker Lambert to cause havoc at the other end. I like Southampton with a +1 goal advance here as well.

Sunderland v/s Norwich. I would be very surprised if the hosts were to lose this one. That's 3 points for them to take and a draw-no-bet on Sunderland looks to be the value punt of the week-end.

Wigan v/s Newcastle. Again here, I cannot see the visitors winning this. They had a hard Thursday game against Anzhi, which they won well at the death. Wigan can certainly win this one, although there's also value going draw-no-bet with them for a safer outcome.

In La Liga, I see wins for Real Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia. Real Sociedad is a draw-no-bet selection at home to Vallaloid.

In Germany, Dortmund should win at home to Freiburg. Bayern Munich are a draw-no-bet selection on their away trip to Leverkusen.

Win: Man Utd, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Dortmund
+1 Goal: Everton, Southampton
Draw-no-bet: Sunderland, Wigan, Real Sociedad, Bayern Munich

Cheltenham and Champions League fest

Barcelona did the improbable today by thrashing Milan and overcoming a first-leg 2 goal deficit. This is really the worst nightmare for the remaining teams in the competition! Tomorrow, Bayern and Porto should close out the remaining teams for the quarter finals. Arsenal don't stand a chance of going through against the German powerhouse, particularly that Jack Wilshere will not play any part in the return leg. Believers would be fools and the Germans are just too good and wily to let themselves be too overconfident for the match.

The other match between Malaga and Porto looks more up for grabs, although it would be hard to go against Porto given the way they manhandled the Spaniards in the first leg. Porto look strong and will be looking for the away goal to put this contest to bed. At current odds, I see value in backing the Portuguese to go through.

The Cheltenham festival got underway today to the delight of National Hunt followers. Sprinter Sacre looks a banker in the Queen Mother Champion Chase on Wednesday and is a confident Win selection. I am just getting a hang of this jumping thing, and in my books, Pont Alexandre looks to have a great chance of landing the Neptune Novice Hurdle. He's an each-way selection, although as I mentioned, national hunt is an area I have only recently started studying.


Win: Sprinter Sacre
Each-way: Pont Alexandre
To Qualify: Porto

Week-end football, Superbowl

It is always the case that the matches following the end of the transfer window spring their cans of surprises because teams have reinforced or weakened during the flurry of activities that characterize the end of transfer proceedings. In addition, new players that are propelled straight into the first team have to gel immediately; so while it will be interesting to see how the forms of all the teams have been affected, caution is the word for the first batch of matches this week-end.

I cannot see Man Utd losing at Fulham. For one, the hosts will be without their main goal scorer Berbatov, while the Red Devils have all their major weapons, bar Ashley Young, at their disposal. The confident selection is Man Utd as a win.

West Brom look exposed against Tottenham. Striker Odemwingie threw a fit and tried to force a vain transfer to QPR on the last transfer day. Talk about morale hit to the team. Spurs were forced to dig deep last week to earn a point at Norwich and will be better served with a seemingly fully-fit Defoe. I see value backing the visitors as a draw-no-bet on this one.

In La Liga, I like Barcelona on their road trip to Valencia. The team is in excellent form and should have trounced Real Madrid in the first leg of the Spanish Cup on Wednesday. They only put one past the Los Blancos although they had clear chances to put the match and tie away. Messi did not score but brave would be the one to oppose him again against Valencia. The hosts are possibly the third best team in La Liga but there is a gulf between them and the Blaugrana. Barcelona is a straight win selection.

Malaga should win at home to Zaragoza. Real Madrid should either win or draw at Granada, and I see Rayo Vallecano as the value bet in La Liga with a +1 goal handicap as they visit Sevilla.

Finally, it's the Super Bowl on Sunday. The San Francisco 49ers are short favourites but I have a feeling the Baltimore Ravens will win this. They are the better balanced team and their quarterback Joe Flacco has the ability to unlock the sometimes unorganized 49er defence. I am no American football expert, but from what I've seen, and I could be wrong, I will speculate and believe going with the Ravens is definitely worth a small crack at the current odds.


Win: Man Utd, Barcelona, Malaga
Draw-no-bet: Tottenham, Real Madrid
+1 Handicap: Rayo Vallecano

Football, National Hunt, Tennis

The EPL takes a backseat to the FA Cup this week-end. The only certainty looks to be Man Utd going through to the next round as they host Fulham. The Red Devils should win this no problem.

In Spain, Barcelona host Osasuna in what should be another 3 full points towards their march to the title. Real Madrid host Getafe, a game that they should also win even though Mourinho is bound to not play his best team given that the league is not their priority anymore. I see both giants winning their games this week-end.

National Hunt is not my main code of racing to follow, but I know that Sprinter Sacre is as safe a certainty as there is. He is a straight win recommendation in the Victor Chandler Chase Group 1 on Saturday.

Finally, the Australian Open will deliver its verdict on Sunday between the 2 best players in men tennis. If Andy Murray can overcome Novak Djokovic, he will have confirmed his US Open tennis consecration of last year and be the designated best player on tour and the one to beat in future tournaments. If the Serb wins, he will have shown he is still the undisputed No 1. I have a feeling Nole will win this but punting on any one of them would be pure speculation.

Win: Man Utd, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Sprinter Sacre

La Liga resumes

This is going to be a quiet week-end with the Cup game match-ups I'm not particularly fond of. Too many risks of upsets and top teams not fielding their starting eleven. Fortunately, La Liga resumes duties and both giants Barcelona and Real Madrid have seemingly easy fixtures at home.

The Catalans are a certainty to win the title this year. No way Real or Atletico can join them. The question at Madrid is whether manager Mourinho will finish the season with them. Considering the continuing deterioration of his relationships with players and executives over there, it might not be farfetched to think that he'll be out soon. Much of Madrid's chances to overcome Man Utd in the Champions League depends on him staying. Just like much of the Red Devils' chances of advancing will depend on the availability of captain Vidic to strengthen their defence. More on that in due time. For the moment, it looks safe to have Barcelona and Madrid as winners on their Sunday comeback.

Win: Barcelona, Real Madrid

Week-end European football

All of the Wednesday selections won, which hopefully, bodes well for the upcoming week-end matches. Here are some of my thoughts.

Liverpool v/s Southampton. Much of Liverpool's chances reside on the form of Luis Suarez. If he scores, they have a great chance to win. If he doesn't, it's hard to see where the goals will come from. Southampton have racked up points at home lately, where they are particularly strong. Like all bottom-tier teams, they find it much harder on the road. They can get a point from Anfield, but I don't see them winning. Liverpool is a draw-no-bet recommendation.

QPR v/s Aston Villa. Rangers will be hoping to get a first win of the dismal campaign against the Villains. There is no doubt that they are a better team with Harry Redknapp in command. I think they will pose Villa with problems and it will not be surprising if they scrape through with 3 full points. The visitors are a decent team, but they will come up against an inspired Rangers. Looking at the odds, I see the hosts as a good value draw-no-be.

Juventus v/s Torino. There are only a couple of teams that aspire full confidence when handicapping Serie A games and Juventus is one of them. They lost to AC Milan, albeit controversially, last week, and they will be keen to keep their healthy lead at the top by winning the Turin derby match. A straight win for the Old Lady.

Barcelona v/s Atletic Bilbao. Barca is on fire and Messi is a man on a mission to break Gerd Muller's season-goal record. Bilbao is a broken team where manager Biesla seems to have lost the plot after club in-fighting with players like Llorente. Straight win for the Blaugrana.

Nice v/s PSG. After a recent dry spell, things look to be returning to normal for the visitors. Although they were dumped out of the French Cup on penalties in mid-week, their priority remains the championship and they should have too much firepower for Nice. Carlos Ancelotti's men are a safe draw-no-bet.


Win: Juventus, Barcelona
Draw-no-bet: Liverpool, QPR, PSG

Tuesday EPL football

Pretty good week-end of football with only Real Madrid and Juventus being the let-downs. The latter were unfortunate to lose on a controversial penalty to AC Milan, while the Spanish champions look to have burned their chances of retaining their title by losing at Real Betis. I know it's early, but Barcelona have a firm grip on La Liga and they have a good margin of error; I cannot see them lose the league this year.

For once, the mid-week features an entire fixture list of Premier League football. On Tuesday, Aston Villa entertain Reading. Both have had some resurgent form of late, in comparison to their rather laborious start to the season. I fancy the hosts here; they have striker Darren Bent back to join the potentially productive strike force of Benteke and Agbonlahor. Unlike against their last scoreless draw against Arsenal, there's every reason to believe that they will score against a below-average Reading defence. The Royals almost snatched a point at Wigan over the week-end only to lose the game in injury time. They must however consider themselves lucky to have tied the game late, due to an own-goal blunder from Wigan's goalkeeper Al-Habsi.

A straight win for the Villains is the selection.

Win: Aston Villa

UCL Wednesday

Barcelona and Shakhtar made it look it easy by powering their way through to the next UCL round.

For tonight's games, I like Arsenal's chances at home to French champions Montpellier. Arsene Wenger has an impeccable record against French opposition in the Europe, and I see no change to this trend tonight. Arsenal will strive for maximum points at home in order to secure qualification and they have the ammunition to do so against average opponents, even without Theo Walcott. Arsenal is a straight win selection.

The UCL games have been somewhat obscured by the sacking of Di Matteo at Chelsea today. The Italian saved the Blues' season last year by landing the FA Cup and the improbable Champions League trophy. They started the  season well and only stuttered in the past month. Does that merit sacking? Looks like in Ambramovich's world, it is! Anyway, I could semi-understand if they already had secured Guardiola's approval to take over. But as I write this, papers seem to put Rafa Benitez as the leading candidate. This must be a joke or paper rubbish, it almost teeters on insanity. If he's really the fancied one, then watch Chelsea disintegrate to a second-rate team. With his record at Liverpool and Inter, there is every reason to believe that he will destroy them, hah!


Win: Arsenal

Champions League night

Both hands up for an atrocious week-end of selections; I was able to limit the damage with Sunderland which I mentioned looked like a good value punt away at Fulham. But the surprising football results made for one of the poorest rounds of selections I can recall.

Time to get back up with Champions League football starting in a few hours.

Barcelona travel to Spartak Moscow whose got as long an injury list as I've ever seen. They will play with their B team! It's a straight win for the Blaugrana.

The Danes of Nordsjaellan host Shakhtar Donesk, who impressed me in their recent loss at Stamford Bridge. The Ukrainian champions will go through the next round with a win. and while I expect them to win the match, I find no problem going safe as a draw-no-bet with them.


Win: Barcelona
Draw-no-bet: Shakhtar

Football preview

Had a good round last week-end with 8 correct selections out of 10. As usual, I stayed away from the mid-week international friendlies which I believe are a waste of time punt-wise.  Zlatan Ibrahimovic's 4th goal against England was however, worth a look and is one for the ages.

The greatest goal I have seen (just my opinion) is Negrete's bicycle kick, outside the box, in World Cup 86 in the match between Mexico and Bulgaria. Zlatan's overhead kick was also outside the box, actually further from goal, at a full 30 yards. Whether he's a choker in big games or not, no one can doubt that the Swede can score wonder goals; recall the brushed side-heel one he scored against Italy in the 2004 European Championship.

Back to League football where Chelsea and Man City are huffing and puffing at the moment and Man Utd have seized the opportunity to comfortably shoot up at the top of the EPL in recent weeks. Here are my thoughts on this week-end's round of matches.

Arsenal v/s Tottenham. The hosts are beset by injuries and uneven form, so they might be upset here. Much of their chances will reside on whether Walcott can play or not. Tottenham will certainly be giving them all they can handle. This Derby looks set to result in a lot of goals, and I will go with a safe selection of Tottenham with a +1 goal handicap.

Liverpool v/s Wigan. Much depends on what type of Wigan shows up. They were disappointing in losing at home to WBA last week-end. Suarez is on fire for Liverpool but it remains to be seen how long more he can shoulder the goal scoring responsibilities for the club. The result of this match can go either way.

Man City v/s Villa. Got to go with the hosts here, even though they are struggling mightily. European Cup failure, I believe, is weighing heavily on the players' and manager's minds. I have changed my mind about this Villa team; under Lambert, they have become a decent and much better side than under the McLeish regime. Benteke can cause problems for the City defence. Still at the end, I cannot see the Villains taking the 3 points, and I see City as a safe draw-no-bet selection.

Newcastle v/s Swansea. Newcastle came up with a nugget at home to West Ham last week-end and it would be surprising if they suffered 2 successive home defeats, even though they will be missing some key players in Cabaye, Coloccini and potentially striker Cisse. I will trust them with a draw-no-bet against a Swansea team that have a few injury issues of their own. if fully-fit, Demba Ba could be set to end his goal drought of the past couple of games.

QPR v/s Southampton. QPR will not have as good an occasion to aim for 3 points here than against lowly Southampton. If they are to survive the relegation battle, this is a must win for them. They are getting a few key players back and should enjoy a better remaining part of the campaign. Southampton are struggling on the road and will be equally keen to capitalize on any chances Rangers will provide them. I give QPR home advantage here and have the hosts as a draw-no-bet.

Reading v/s Everton. This could very well be yet another win for Everton. They have been impressive since the start of the season, and are led by an inspiring Fellaini. Reading will have to come up with their A-game and their usually-flaky defence will be put to the test against the powerful Toffees. Everton is another draw-no-bet selection.

West Brom v/s Chelsea. The Baggies showed they were a good force to reckon with at home when they went toe-to-toe with Man City a few weeks ago, albeit with one extra man. Chelsea will have to be at their best to get the win. This match can go either way, so I'll sit on the fence on this one.

Norwich v/s Man Utd. Last year, the Red Devils were somewhat lucky to snatch victory with the game's last kick through the ever-green Ryan Giggs. I think they will re-iterate this year with another win. Van Persie, Chicharito are on fire and even though Rooney might miss the call, they are sufficiently potent in attack to make the difference. The visitors are a win selection.

Fulham v/s Sunderland. This is the game where Sunderland could spring a shock. They nearly did it at Goodison Park last week and it would not be a stretch to think that they can go and beat a Fulham team that is leaking goals in abundance in their last matches. Sunderland with a +1 handicap is the value bet of the week-end.

West Ham v/s Stoke. Stoke like parking the bus on the road; West Ham have good form at home. This could very well end up in a draw. I'll abstain on this one.

In the rest of Europe, I see wins for Inter, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Dortmund, Bayern and PSG.

Win: Man Utd, Inter, Real, Barcelona, Valencia, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, PSG
Draw-no-bet: Man City, Newcastle, QPR, Everton,
Handicap +1: Tottenham, Sunderland

Week-end football

Wednesday's results went as expected except for Barcelona who got dinged at Celtic. It must have been written somewhere that Celtic would come out on top on their 125th anniversary, though they were outplayed in every statistical department of the game.

The week-end games coming up look tricky and here are my thoughts.

Arsenal v/s Fulham. This is a game pitting 2 teams with very good attacks but poor defence. So there could be potentially lots of goals in this match. The pressure seems to be mounting on a weekly basis on Arsene Wenger; there does not seem much light at the end of the tunnel for the Gunners fans as far as garnering trophies after some many years of wait. Each defeat, like last week's at Old Trafford, stokes the fires of reported unrest and dissent throughout the club hierarchy by the media as regards Wenger's failing policy for the club. But Arsenal have home advantage here against a Fulham team that seems to be puffing of late. Arsenal is a draw-no-bet recommendation.

Everton v/s Sunderland. Will Sunderland finally score a goal? They might very well do it, but then it sounds hard to believe that Everton will not score a few themselves. I believe Martin O'Neil will get things sorted out for the Black Cats but going to win at Goodison Park seems too much of a tall order given their current form. The odds are that Everton will win this, or get a point from this game at the very least. The hosts are a safe draw-no-bet.

Reading v/s Norwich. There isn't much difference between these 2 teams; they will both be fighting relegation and will be keen to get 3 full points here. Can go either way.

Southampton v/s Swansea. Same as above game. Both teams are capable of the best and worst.

Stoke v/s QPR.Stoke is my value win of the week-end. Obviously, they are always good at home, and QPR looks like a team in real distress. How much longer owner Fernandes will keeping voicing his unconditional support to Mark Hughes will be interesting. It's not entirely the manager's fault. They've been hit by a slew of injuries that is the main source of their woes. Stoke for the win, is the selection.

Wigan v/s West Brom. Two teams in good form, and there's really little to choose between the two. I expect a tight game and will side with the Latics because of their home advantage. Wigan is a draw-no-bet selection.

Aston Villa v/s Man Utd. I expect the Villains to give Man Utd a tough game. They are doing well under Lambert and have put together a good string of matches lately. Man Utd always seem to find it hard when facing mid-table Premiership sides after Champions League football. This is possibly because the style of play is so different. It would be no surprise if Man Utd won this late, but it wouldn't be a surprise either if they hit an off-day and get undone by the hosts. The result can go either way.

Man City v/s Tottenham. It is clear that Man City have yet to hit any kind of top form that they displayed for much of last season. They are struggling to get results going their way either in the league or in the European Cup. Tottenham won't be an easy game for them; the Londoners should have won last year's fixture only to be beaten on a last-gap penalty. Both teams played in mid-week, so there will be fitness issues on both sides. There is no certainty in the result.

Newcastle v/s West Ham. Both teams have injury concerns going into the game. The hosts will be without their lynchpins Tiote and Coloccini, while the Hammers seem to be left with only one fit central defender. I expect the potent Tyneside team to take full advantage of the visitors' depleted defence. Newcastle is a Win selection.

Chelsea v/s Liverpool. Both teams played in mid-week, against Russian teams; Chelsea were lucky to win against a very good Shakhtar Donesk. Liverpool played their second team in a loss to Anzhi. The concern with Chelsea is their defence has been very porous with the absence of Terry. The absence of Ashley Cole looks set to add to their defensive woes. Liverpool have gathered a few positive results lately and their main problem seems to be their lack of realism in front of goal. Suarez is certainly missing an able partner up there. This could very well end up in a draw, but I'm just going to avoid having a punt on the game.

Over Europe, I see wins for Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich, Ajax, PSV Eidhoven and Porto.

Win: Newcastle, Stoke, Athletico Madrid, Bayern, Ajax, PSV, Porto
Draw-no-bet: Arsenal, Everton, Wigan