European Week-end Football

Some of my thoughts on this week-end's matches.

Tottenham v/s Chelsea. The reunion of Mourinho and ex-staffer Villas-Boas. The press might have tried, but no-one knows the level of break-down between the 2 managers. Maybe they'll give a better clue during the pre-match or post-match handshakes. On the pitch, I think Chelsea will be in for a torrid time. Spurs are no slouch at home and given their level of form, I like their chances to get at least a point out of this game. They are the draw-no-bet selection of this week-end.

Aston Villa v/s Man City. The hosts will be missing their key weapon Benteke for the next few games and that is not a good omen for them. Man City are currently firing on all cylinders and their demolition of neighbours Man Utd last week-end will have given a mighty spring in their step. They should get out of Villa Park with full points. Straight win for the Citizens.

Fulham v/s Cardiff. It's been a up and down start of the season so far for the Cottagers and they will relish the visit of Cardiff for some much-needed 3 points. Berbatov and Bent can do serious damage on their best day, and I reckon the hosts represent great value for the win at current odds here.

Man Utd v/s West Brom. The probability of WBA coming out of Old Trafford looks bleak. Now that their matches against the big runs are over, this could be the start of a winning run for the Red Devils. They should win this, particularly with RVP back.

Southampton v/s Crystal Palace. Soton are a tough team to break down at home and there is no reason to believe that Palace will reverse poor opposition records at the St Mary's. The hosts should build on last Saturday's impressive win at Anfield and get the 3 points.

Sunderland v/s Liverpool. The Black Cats are a team in disarray. Obviously, Di Canio was never going to be a long-term fit. Suarez and Sturridge will relish this clash; I cannot see Liverpool getting beaten in this one. I see value backing them with a straight win.

In Spain, I see wins for Barcelona and Valencia. I like Real Sociedad as a draw-no-bet against Sevilla.

In the Bundesliga, Dortmund and Bayern should get full points and continue their duel at the top of the table.

Win: Man City, Fulham, Man Utd, Southampton, Liverpool, Barcelona, Valencia, Dortmund, Bayern
Draw-no-bet: Tottenham, Real Sociedad.

Choker tag on the line

The UCL final at Wembley is the main event of the week-end, pitting the 2 German teams Bayern Munich and Dortmund. On paper and based on form, Bayern looks difficult to beat and is the overwhelming favourite. But looks are very deceiving. For those that think that the Munich team will win it easily, consider this; Bayern have not beaten Dortmund in a league game for the past couple of years. They have lost more UCL finals than they've won. They lost when to Porto in 1987 when practically no-one thought the Portuguese had the slightest chance. Last year, they lost the final to Chelsea when playing at their vaunted Allianz Arena. They also lost to Man Utd during the Red Devils' Triple Crown coronation in 1999, and again to Mourinho's Inter Milan in the 2010 Final. In comparison, Dortmund's sole UCL final appearance and victory came as a massive under-dog against Juventus in 1997.

So, the word "choker" springs to mind when The Bavarians get to the final. But that's not to say that this year  might not be different; Bayern really look overwhelmingly strong this year. They crushed the Bundesliga early and annihilated Barcelona on their way to Wembley. This is a team that is really on the ascendancy and will be peaking in the coming years, provided upcoming coach Guardiola does not wreck them.

Against them is a strong Dortmund team that has the belief that this Cup is theirs for the taking. They were nearly dead and buried against Malaga, yet conjured up 2 goals in injury-time to make it through. They were not supposed to overcome mighty Real Madrid, yet they outplayed and outscored them. On its best day, this team can beat anyone, even Bayern. They are led by a maestro motivator in manager Klopp. They have world-class players like Lewandowski, Reus and Gotze that can open up any defence. But here's one thing; Gotze will miss the final due to a hamstring injury. That's a massive blow for Dortmund. He's their playmaker and although he's Bayern-bound next year, he would have been a real threat for the men in yellow.

The pressure will definitely be more on Bayern. They have to score first and preferably early to settle their nerves. Their ability to impose their game will be instrumental. They have beaten their opponents in the German Cup this season which will have given them belief that they can win the game in 90 minutes. Dortmund will most probably sit back and rely on their deadly counter-attack. Anything can happen in a final; the team that makes of the most of its chances will win. There's no certainty here; but I think that with some luck, Bayern is ready to dispel the myths and confirm the current thinking that they are indeed the best in Europe. Whether in full or injury-time, or on penalties, my feeling is that the Bavarians will prevail.

Comeback, only a dream for Real

Tonight is a momentous point in the career of Jose Mourinho; do the near-impossible and thrash Dortmund by 3 goals at least to qualify Real Madrid to the Champions League final. Fail to do so and be destined to be  remembered as an also-ran, or worse, a failure, as a  Madrid coach. Self-confessed philosophical latter words from the Portuguese himself. For, that would leave him with just one league and one Copa del Rey titles (make that two Copas if they win this year's) to boast during his short tenure at Madrid. Very far from the ambitious cries of European glory that characterized his appointment a few years ago.

The European Cup is not short of great comebacks from the men in white. In the late 80's, it seemed inevitable they would make the difference at the Bernabeu after a heavy defeat on their travels;Anderlecht, Inter, Moenchengladbach have painful memories of these reversals. This would be the inspiration for the Los Blancos for tonight's game. Can they also do it? I don't think so. For every goal Madrid is bound to score, Dortmund can respond with one as well. They scored 2 on their last visit during the preliminary stages. This is a team that is mentally strong enough to withstand the apprehension of stepping into the cauldron of the Bernabeu. Their unorthodox manager Klopp will have readied them for that.

Real will depend on Ronaldo as usual. Much will depend on his disposition for the game as he's officially nursing a thigh injury. I have hardly any doubt Madrid will score; I actually think they can get 2 or possibly 3. But Dortmund will have their chances to score as well. My intuition of an all-German final before the start of the semis looks good; unless the referee has some other devious plan in mind, Dortmund should go through and the odds currently on offer are an absolute bargain.

In the other semi-final, I mentioned before that Barcelona have no chance of going through against the Bayern machine. Even with a Messi at 100%.

To qualify: Borussia Dortmund

Dortmund to make case for German final

Bayern did it as expected yesterday, and there is no way back in this tie for Barcelona. It's true a couple of the goals were suspect, particularly the Robben one which should have been disallowed, but Bayern were truly the better team by far. This is the end of the Barcelona dominating team as we know it.

My view that it can very well be an all-German UCL final stands, and Dortmund can pile more Spanish misery tonight against Real. How the sudden Gotze announcement will affect the team remains to be seen. Dortmund have a crazy manager in Klopp, a brilliant manager he is as well. I don't think Mourinho had any chance of playing mind games with Klopp which is why the Portuguese has stayed pretty numb in the rundown to tonight's encounter. It sometimes takes a crazy personality to outdo another one and that's what Klopp has done to Mourinho! Anyway, on the pitch, it will be 2 evenly teams needing to take their scoring chances to make it through.

Dortmund have unbelievable talent in Reus, Gotze and Lewandowski. No doubt that they won the Bundesliga twice in a row when Kagawa was there as well. They are potent but they have to be less profligate at goal like against the first-leg in Malaga where they wasted a ton of first-rate opportunities to score. Their strike force can un-lock the suspect Madrid defence, for sure.

Real Madrid have Ronaldo, and that gives them a winning chance in any match. Limit him and Borussia will have a great chance. I think Real will look for the away goal and try to park the bus in this match, in order to make the difference at the Bernabeu. Counter-attacking is their forte and look set to be their modus operandi.

I think it's worth going with Dortmund as a draw-no-bet here. They beat Real in the preliminary stage by the minimum score, although the conditions were different at the time. Real showed vulnerability in their last 2 travels; at Old Trafford where they needed a helping hand from the referee to go through, and at Galatasaray where they were outplayed by an arguably modest Turkish side. Dortmund looks to make a statement tonight and advance the cause of Bundesliga power in Europe.

Draw-no-bet: Borussia Dortmund

Semi-finals in sight for Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund looks primed to reach the semi-finals of the UCL tonight. Although the first leg match against Malaga ended up in a scoreless draw, the Germans squandered a host of good chances to snatch at least an away goal, albeit win the game. They showed they were the superior team and will be the deserved favourites to go through back on their home ground where they are quite formidable. There are quite a few things going against Malaga; a couple of suspended players, mixed current form, and the unfortunate disruption of their training with the absence of top manager Pellegrini over the past few days. Even at their best, the Spaniards floundered in the last round on their visit to Porto, and were lucky to come away with a narrow 1-goal loss. Dortmund are bound to be less forgiving and they look set to win the match and advance. I see the Germans winning over 90 minutes and qualify.

Win: Borussia Dortmund
To Qualify: Borussia Dortmund

European football preview

The directive that started months ago to keep on piling on Man Utd for the league continues un-abated this week-end as they stand a great chance of further widening the gap at the top. They will most certainly beat a manager-less Reading while City are not sure to come un-scathed from their visit to Everton. Here are my week-end picks.

Man Utd v/s Reading. No contest there, goals should be aplenty with the strikers in red looking for a field day. Van Persie has been quiet of late, so this is an ideal platform for him to bang them in. Easy Win selection for the hosts.

Aston Villa v/s QPR. A 6-pointer between 2 teams fighting relegation. Villa are better than their current position suggests and will be keen to add an important 3 points to their tally. QPR have won 2 games in a row, which must have buoyed them greatly in their bid to secure what seemed an unlikely survival in the top flight just a few weeks ago. This game can really go either way and I feel the game will be decided on a decisive action on either side. Better sit and watch this one.

Everton v/s Man City. The visitors will be missing captain Kompany and striker Aguero. Everton were shocked at home to Wigan in the FA Cup last week and manager Moyes will be keen to right the ship, to keep their faint hopes for a Top 4 finish alive. Everton have a good record at home and I believe they will seriously test the Citizens. I fancy them with a +1 goal handicap.

Southampton v/s Liverpool. The Kops are the team form of the moment with striker Suarez in sparkling form. The hosts are far from easy meat at home where they've beaten top teams and even Man Utd needed late goals from Van Persie to secure a win over there. The Saints are not safe from relegation yet and they will rely every bit on striker Lambert to cause havoc at the other end. I like Southampton with a +1 goal advance here as well.

Sunderland v/s Norwich. I would be very surprised if the hosts were to lose this one. That's 3 points for them to take and a draw-no-bet on Sunderland looks to be the value punt of the week-end.

Wigan v/s Newcastle. Again here, I cannot see the visitors winning this. They had a hard Thursday game against Anzhi, which they won well at the death. Wigan can certainly win this one, although there's also value going draw-no-bet with them for a safer outcome.

In La Liga, I see wins for Real Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia. Real Sociedad is a draw-no-bet selection at home to Vallaloid.

In Germany, Dortmund should win at home to Freiburg. Bayern Munich are a draw-no-bet selection on their away trip to Leverkusen.

Win: Man Utd, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Dortmund
+1 Goal: Everton, Southampton
Draw-no-bet: Sunderland, Wigan, Real Sociedad, Bayern Munich

Friday football and ball boy

Borussia Dortmund should be too good for visiting Nurnberg in Bundesliga's Friday game and are a Win selection. I expect Dortmund to have a better second half of the season than its inconsistent first one, but it's probably too much to expect them to retain the title this year; Bayern look strong and have a decent enough cushion to last to the title.

The January transfer activity has been rather tepid and although things look to pick up in that regard as the deadline looms, there probably will not be too much to crow about possible mega transfers. However, the ball boy incident involving Hazard during the Swansea v/s Chelsea return semi-final match on Wednesday is good fodder for the front and back pages. I am 110% with the Chelsea midfielder on this one and certainly think that his red card should be rescinded. The obvious instigator of the whole episode is the silly ball boy. He happened to mention before the game that he would time waste. Ball boys can very much time waste as long as they don't obstruct the game. Silly boy should have stuck to his job. Arguably, Hazard looked to want to toe poke the ball under silly boy, not assault him. I don't think he merits any suspension from a rather misfortune red card, and he certainly does not deserve the flak he's getting on this.

In the end, Swansea are through to the league Cup final and they look near a certainty to win it all. I cannot see Bradford City stopping them, but we'll get to the final in due time.

Win: Borussia Dortmund

Football preview

Had a good round last week-end with 8 correct selections out of 10. As usual, I stayed away from the mid-week international friendlies which I believe are a waste of time punt-wise.  Zlatan Ibrahimovic's 4th goal against England was however, worth a look and is one for the ages.

The greatest goal I have seen (just my opinion) is Negrete's bicycle kick, outside the box, in World Cup 86 in the match between Mexico and Bulgaria. Zlatan's overhead kick was also outside the box, actually further from goal, at a full 30 yards. Whether he's a choker in big games or not, no one can doubt that the Swede can score wonder goals; recall the brushed side-heel one he scored against Italy in the 2004 European Championship.

Back to League football where Chelsea and Man City are huffing and puffing at the moment and Man Utd have seized the opportunity to comfortably shoot up at the top of the EPL in recent weeks. Here are my thoughts on this week-end's round of matches.

Arsenal v/s Tottenham. The hosts are beset by injuries and uneven form, so they might be upset here. Much of their chances will reside on whether Walcott can play or not. Tottenham will certainly be giving them all they can handle. This Derby looks set to result in a lot of goals, and I will go with a safe selection of Tottenham with a +1 goal handicap.

Liverpool v/s Wigan. Much depends on what type of Wigan shows up. They were disappointing in losing at home to WBA last week-end. Suarez is on fire for Liverpool but it remains to be seen how long more he can shoulder the goal scoring responsibilities for the club. The result of this match can go either way.

Man City v/s Villa. Got to go with the hosts here, even though they are struggling mightily. European Cup failure, I believe, is weighing heavily on the players' and manager's minds. I have changed my mind about this Villa team; under Lambert, they have become a decent and much better side than under the McLeish regime. Benteke can cause problems for the City defence. Still at the end, I cannot see the Villains taking the 3 points, and I see City as a safe draw-no-bet selection.

Newcastle v/s Swansea. Newcastle came up with a nugget at home to West Ham last week-end and it would be surprising if they suffered 2 successive home defeats, even though they will be missing some key players in Cabaye, Coloccini and potentially striker Cisse. I will trust them with a draw-no-bet against a Swansea team that have a few injury issues of their own. if fully-fit, Demba Ba could be set to end his goal drought of the past couple of games.

QPR v/s Southampton. QPR will not have as good an occasion to aim for 3 points here than against lowly Southampton. If they are to survive the relegation battle, this is a must win for them. They are getting a few key players back and should enjoy a better remaining part of the campaign. Southampton are struggling on the road and will be equally keen to capitalize on any chances Rangers will provide them. I give QPR home advantage here and have the hosts as a draw-no-bet.

Reading v/s Everton. This could very well be yet another win for Everton. They have been impressive since the start of the season, and are led by an inspiring Fellaini. Reading will have to come up with their A-game and their usually-flaky defence will be put to the test against the powerful Toffees. Everton is another draw-no-bet selection.

West Brom v/s Chelsea. The Baggies showed they were a good force to reckon with at home when they went toe-to-toe with Man City a few weeks ago, albeit with one extra man. Chelsea will have to be at their best to get the win. This match can go either way, so I'll sit on the fence on this one.

Norwich v/s Man Utd. Last year, the Red Devils were somewhat lucky to snatch victory with the game's last kick through the ever-green Ryan Giggs. I think they will re-iterate this year with another win. Van Persie, Chicharito are on fire and even though Rooney might miss the call, they are sufficiently potent in attack to make the difference. The visitors are a win selection.

Fulham v/s Sunderland. This is the game where Sunderland could spring a shock. They nearly did it at Goodison Park last week and it would not be a stretch to think that they can go and beat a Fulham team that is leaking goals in abundance in their last matches. Sunderland with a +1 handicap is the value bet of the week-end.

West Ham v/s Stoke. Stoke like parking the bus on the road; West Ham have good form at home. This could very well end up in a draw. I'll abstain on this one.

In the rest of Europe, I see wins for Inter, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Dortmund, Bayern and PSG.

Win: Man Utd, Inter, Real, Barcelona, Valencia, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, PSG
Draw-no-bet: Man City, Newcastle, QPR, Everton,
Handicap +1: Tottenham, Sunderland

Champions League Tuesday

A tough week-end to quickly forget, with Royal Delta being the main culprit; when I saw her take the lead unopposed,  my fear of the worst materialized. Credit to her, she proved to be the best of the distaff division.

Champions League football continues in a few hours. It's last chance saloon for Man City. They need 3 full points against Ajax to keep their slim hopes of advancing alive. I expect them to come all guns blazing and I see them prevail at the end. They are a Win selection.

In the same group, Real Madrid and Dortmund lock horns at the Bernabeu. The Germans won the first-leg match a fortnight ago but it is difficult to see them repeat that feat. They are a strong team but they will come up against a Real team that have a formidable home record. I think a draw-no-bet on Real Madrid is safe.


Win: Man City
Draw-no-bet: Real Madrid

Bad Blood

It's been a quiet week and I anticipate it to be as such until some event like the Olympics get started. Of course there is horse racing but with the wet weather that is plaguing the area, race cards are either being cancelled or proving hard to follow because it is impossible to gauge the form with the soft/heavy conditions. Also there is the Tour de France, but we all know it is a competition for a bunch of doped cyclists trying to prove a futile point. But the aerial shots of the French scenery are spectacular to watch as usual.

Keeping abreast of football activities during the off-season, there are some exciting reinforcements for the Premier League. Japanese Kagawa is the one that catches the eye for the moment after this transfer to Man Utd. I think he is looking like another great addition to the Red Devils. He played a key role in the three-pronged attack at Borussia Dortmund and has scored some beauties last year. He is quick and two-footed. It will be interesting to see Fergie opt for a Rooney-Kagawa-Chicharito strike force, and possibly do away with his preferred 4-4-2. Things look exciting at Old Trafford even though on paper, they still have room for improvement to match neighbours City.

The highlight of the week-end, in England at least, looks to be the boxing match between 2 prima donna's David Haye and Chisora. Much has been said about their off-ring antics, particularly Chisora who's as unstable an athlete I can think of. Slap to Klitschko during weigh-in, brawl with Haye during post-match...nothing honourable for him to cheer about (but then, boxing was never about gallantry). Fact is, Chisora speaks a lot but does not have the talent of David Haye. The latter is coming out of retirement, and if he's not too ring-rusty, he will prove too strong for his opponent. The bad blood that exists between the 2 should provide for an exciting bout. In the end, the more professional Haye should prevail, and that's the recommendation.


Win: David Haye

Return of the Greatest Miler

The Lockinge, a race that has been a curse to many of its winners in recent years, when you think of the likes of Hawk Wing, Rakti and Creachadoir etc, who then never won again. This year, Frankel looks poised to win it and let's hope that this will not stop his winning sequence because so much is expected of him this season.

This is a race that Frankel will win even with the presence of Excelebration, possibly the second best miler in the world after the Galileo colt. The naysayers will mention that Frankel is vulnerable because of the injury he incurred a few weeks back that disturbed his training for nearly 10 days. They will mention that Excelebration has one run under his belt already which Henry Cecil concedes as a real advantage for the Ballydoyle colt. I believe Frankel will be as vulnerable as he's ever been, but his connections will not have risked him for the race if they did not think he would win. The logic should be respected at the end with Frankel leading Excelebration at the finish.

A few hours later, the Preakness will see a rematch between I'll Have Another and Bodemeister, the first 2 finishers in the Derby. Although the shorter distance of 9 furlongs will better suit Bodemeister, that does not mean that he will have enough to outlast the Kentucky Derby winner at the distance. My theory is that whoever of the 2 has better recuperated from their exertions of the Derby will win this. Usually, the one with the better stamina recuperates the better, so it is advantage I'll Have Another, and the shortened distance should not give any definitive edge to Bodemeister. The other theory is that Bodemeister lost the Derby not because of stamina issues, but rather because of a lack of seasoning and career starts. If that is the case, then he is the deserved favourite for the Preakness. In the end, this second Classic of the season should play between these 2 protagonists and I am inclined to have both as a Place.

Obviously, I couldn't close this preview of the week-end without mentioning the Champions League final between Bayern and Chelsea. Playing at home gives the Germans a big advantage. The fact that Chelsea will miss much of its defence gives the Bavarians an ever greater advantage. However, their form is suspect as demonstrated by their drubbing from Borussia Dortmund in the German Cup last week. As for Chelsea, their best chance is to play it tactically, like against Barcelona, and hope to nick a goal against the run of play, then park the bus. It's not an impossible task for them, but much of their chances will depend on the disposition of the host team. If Bayern are on song on the day, they should win. But this is not a guarantee, and neither is the result. Hopefully the best on the day wins and real football prevails.

Win: Frankel

Place: Bodemeister, I'll Have Another, Excelebration

What kind of Clasico?

Interesting week-end in the Premier League where Man City are set for a tough test at Chelsea. This game is really too close to call, and it can go either way. That's one major hurdle in the Citizens' quest for the title and if they get 3 points out of it, their odds will surely go even lower.

The surest outcome in the EPL looks to be at Old Trafford where the reeling Red Devils welcome Wolves. The hosts suffered yet another setback when they lost Vidic for the season. Given that they probably were given the hair dryer treatment the whole week by boss Sir Alex Ferguson, they should be able to squeeze through this game. It's safest to go draw-no-bet on them, given that confidence must be at an very low level at Utd.

All the other games in the EPL look tight, so I wouldn't be surprised to see lots of draw matches this week-end.

The focus in European football is really on Sunday's El Clasico. These Clasico's have disappointed last year as they were subject to an abysmal level of un-fair play. So I will not have my spirits raised on those matches this year even though they clearly will oppose the 2 best football sides in the world, not just Spain or Europe. I've mentioned over the past weeks that Madrid look set to end years of domination from their Barcelona rivals, and this game on Sunday will be right for them to prove that they can be on a par with their fierce rivals. Barcelona are still the best team in the world and will be hard to beat, but they have lacked success on the road this year and nothing seems to indicate that they will have improved on their travels as they reach the Bernabeu. Madrid has the hunger and are driven by a manager that practically never loses at home. I see value in backing the hosts as draw-no-bet in this game. Obviously, it's never a sure thing to go against Barcelona, but the conditions look ripe to be on the side of the Los Blancos, assuming the inherent risk element involved. I think Madrid will be the side partying after the game.

In Germany, I like Dortmund as it hosts Kaiserslautern. A draw-no-bet on them should be safe.

Draw-no-bet: Man Utd, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund

Crystal clear at the top

6 wins out of 6 recommendations over the week-end. Seem to be riding a great form at the moment. Man City, Man Utd, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Stuttgart and Schalke all won.

In the EPL, it's NO longer premature to say that the title will go between the 2 Manchester sides. I honestly cannot see any other team disputing it. And if I have to make a bold prediction, Man City are in a position to win the Premiership very handily this year. Just my opinion. At the moment, the Red Devils are huffing and puffing, missing the influence of Rooney up-front as they try to cover for the lack of a real play-maker with the absence of Cleverley due to injury. They must ensure that they do not lose points during their relatively modest form of late, or else City could open an insurmountable gap by Christmas time. Obviously, things will change and even the Citizens' form will suffer the normal season's ebbs and flows, but one cannot help feel that they have a deep-enough squad to withstand the challenges ahead. If Mancini can steer the ship alright, they are in a royal position to win it. Never discount Alex Ferguson's men though, they will never give up the fight, certain not to their neighbours!

I have the same feeling regarding Real Madrid in La Liga. They are getting better and better, they have Mourinho, they have Christiano Ronaldo, and they have the upper hand on Barcelona right now.  Certainly the 3 hard-earned points at the Mestella this week-end will enormously help the Los Blancos at the end of the campaign. The Blaugrana just cannot afford to lose points as Madrid look to be a very strong leader.

At the moment, for those playing the long view/big returns game, it might make sense to start taking a gradual position on both Man City and Real Madrid to win their respective titles.

On Champions League Tuesday, I like Bayern Munich to overcome Villareal at home. The hosts lost to Dortmund over the week-end, a game which turned out to be a trap as I was mentioning during my preview. However, Villareal is a club in transition and although they have kept a clean sheet in their past 3 games, their level is certainly not up to par to previous years'. The Bavarians will be keen to win this game to secure top spot and I just cannot see them failing against the struggling Spanish team. The hosts are a strong recommendation for a draw-no-bet.

Draw-no-bet: Bayern Munich

Week-end preview

Good old club football is back after the boring international friendlies. Just need to make sure that the selections are not affected by the disruption of the 2-week break and most importantly, from injuries.

In the EPL, Man City should overcome Newcastle at home. The Magpies are still unbeaten at this stage and re the surprise package of the first half of the season. However, they will be missing a few starting players like Tiote in midfield and Best in attack. Man City can play 2 teams as their depth in squad is pretty much unparalleled in the Premiership. The team is so potent that goals can come from anywhere. I recommend Man City as a strong draw-no-bet.

Man Utd visit Swansea and should be able to keep up the pressure on neighbours City. Although they will be without Cleverley, Wellbeck and Owen, the fringe players can easily add their bit to the team. I don't expect this game to be a goal fest but I see the Red Devils edging this out at the end. It won't be easy for them, but they should have too much class for the hosts. I recommend Man Utd as a draw-no-bet as well.

In Spain, Barcelona should have no problem to overcome Zaragoza at home. Already trailing Real Madrid by 3 points, it will be important for Messi and co to get maximum points at the Nou Camp. They are an easy Win recommendation. The Los Blancos face an arguably tough task visiting third-place Valencia, who happen to be unbeaten at home so far. This is the kind of game where there is value backing Mourinho's team as a draw-no-bet. I see them getting at least a point from this match, and should they get the 3 points, they would have successfully removed a giant obstacle on their path to the title.

In Germany, it's the top match between Dortmund and Munich. Bayern lost their influential midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger recently and it will be interesting to see how it affects their dynamic. This game is too close to call although the hosts clearly have the advantage of home soil. Rather, I will focus on the Schalke-Nurnberg and Stuttgart-Augsburg matches where the hosts look to be enjoying a massive home advantage and are thus recommended as strong draw-no-bets.

Win: Barcelona
Draw-no-bet: Man City, Man Utd, Real Madrid, Schalke, Stuttgart

Champions League start

Djokovic is just a monster. I cannot think of a more dominant athlete in a sport today than Nole. Arguably his 3 slam victories this year typifies an even greater domination than Tiger's 3 slams a few years back since he's only lost 2 matches the whole year! It's back to the drawing board for Rafa. Nole owns him right now.

Today is the start of a new Champions League season, which seems to grow in bounds of significance from year to year. It seems every player's dream every year is not to win the domestic title but to win the European Cup. Today's matches look to be very close and there could be a flurry of drawn matches. I don't think Barcelona is assured of a win against visiting Milan since it's still got a depleted defence which the Italians could exploit; a draw-no-bet on the Blaugrana looks the safer option and is recommended. Arsenal and Chelsea will have difficult nights against German opponents Dortmund and Leverkusen respectively and those matches can go either way in my opinion. Draw purists will love tonight's fixtures.

Draw-no-bet: Barcelona.

Now or never for Tottenham

Oh, Everton! It's not looking good for the Toffees! Chelsea, Dortmund, Bayern and Bremen all won except for Everton who got stunned at home to QPR! I mentioned in my preview that Everton did not strengthen from last year, and I actually now think they are much weaker. Their play was out-of-sorts and their strike force looks impotent. From what I saw, I cannot see them scoring a lot this year. Unless David Moyes can produce some sort of miracle, they are not a team to bank a lot this year.

In a few hours, Man Utd host Tottenham, and I see Spurs as value as +1.0 & +1.5 in the handicap market. Harry Rednapp's men have been knocking at Old Trafford's door in the past few years and the time to go get a result there is early in the season when the Red Devils are not at full flow. Even better for them, the Devils will be missing key defencemen and a goalkeeper under fire in De Gea. Spurs have a troubled backline as well, which means there could be many goals in this match. Brad Fridel, the new Spurs stopper, always seems to reserve his best matches against Man Utd and is sure to come up with some vital saves. This leads me to think that this will be a close encounter with maybe Man Utd edging it in the end. Tottenham could also nick it at the end if the Devil's young backline ends up to be porous. So, going with Spurs at +1.0 & +1.5 goals looks the right punt for this match and is the recommendation. You only lose if Man Utd win by 2 goals and I don't see that happening.

Handicap +1.0 & 1.5: Tottenham

EPL & Bundesliga Previews

Criostal came second for a place, with winner Cloud Racer way too good. It would have been better if I had the daughter of Teofilo as Place rather than each-way and I got too greedy there.

The second week matches of the EPL look very tight and I wouldn't be surprised if many of them end up with draw scores. I certainly think Man Utd are in danger of losing points at home to Tottenham. Harry's men with certainly have a go at them and with their thrashing of Hearts in midweek, their confidence will be sky high. A tough encounter for Alex Ferguson's men particularly in the absence of their rock solid defender Vidic.

I cannot see Chelsea losing to WBA even though Roy Hodgson teams are always difficult to break down. I recommend Chelsea as a draw-no-bet.

Everton should overcome QPR at home although this Everton squad does not look emphatically stronger than last year's. Everton is recommended as a draw-no-bet. The rest of the EPL games are too close to call.

In the Bundesliga,  Bayern Munich, Werder Bremen and Dortmund look to have relatively easy games at home. It's too early in the season to have them as certain winners though. I recommend all 3 as draw-no-bet since I can't see them losing either.

Draw-no-bet: Chelsea, Everton, Bayern Munich, Werder Bremen, Dortmund

Frankel is the real deal

10 good recommendations out of 13 was the result that came out of this week-end. Frankel, Lille, PSG, Borussia, Milan, Napoli, Bayern, Man City, Twente, PSV all won while all 3 that bombed were teams that are still active in the Champions League (Real Madrid, Barcelona and Man Utd). Coincidence or not, it looks as if Champions League involvement does have an impact on the next league match.

Case in point: Man Utd were absolutely dominating against Schalke in mid-week, yet against the Gunners, the Red Devils were uninspiring and devoid of the creativity and flair that made football fans in awe just a few days ago. Hard to think that it was nearly the same starting eleven. As for the Spanish giants, it always looked as if their minds were on the return leg on Tuesday than anything else. A Madrid win earlier during the day would, in my opinion, forced Barcelona to play for the win, but the Madrid loss clearly allowed the Catalans to go easy on the gas pedal and this played in favor of Real Sociedad. So clearly disappointing cases of Champions League impacts but lessons learned.

As for the EPL itself, which seems to be blown wide open, I think Man Utd are still in command. In fact, with their odds creeping higher because of the week-end's turn of events, I think it value to still lump on them. The fact is Chelsea will have to keep having good fortune on their side to go beat the Red Devils at Old Trafford. I'll get to that when I preview next week-end's matches.

The story of the week-end for me was Frankel's stunning display in the 2000 Guineas. Not that he was not expected to win (recommended to win here), but the manner of his win was impressive, at least visually. Not many champions of the past would have been able to display that kind of 'catch me if you can' attitude. Frankel has proven he's versatile enough to either follow the pace, or set it himself, which is a very rare trait even for a champion. I think, horse racing folks, that the Flat season this year could be very special. Imagining a clash among Frankel, Ballydoyle's So You Think (who won today), and last year's champion Workforce, is just mouth-watering at this point.

Finally, as mentioned above, tomorrow is the last of the El Clasico's between Barcelona and Madrid. Hard to think that I'm saying this, but I've gotten enough of these, and I can't wait for the match to be over regardless of who goes through. After the first one that led to a Barcelona 5-0 rout, the promise was there for the remaining 3 to be matches of a lifetime. It turns out that Mourihno's negative tactics, and both team's theatrics and  lack of sportsmanship have made these Clasico matches a bore, a shame. I've seen enough of Marcelo, Alves, Pedro and Sergio's play-acting (yes the same Sergio that got Motta wrongfully dismissed against Inter last year). It's more than annoying to see that every time the referee makes a call, he's senselessly being mobbed. Mourinho plays not to lose and is scared to play Barcelona even with the world-class players in his possession. Barcelona will qualify because they've already struck the decisive blow at the Bernabeu. No need for a recommendation, and no need to watch (at least for me) either.

Week-end preview

Laughing gave a disappointingly laughable run and was never a factor at Dundalk. A bad recommendation.

In the EPL this week-end, I like the 2 Manchester teams to either win or draw. Man Utd visit Arsenal and this game could very well end in a tie. It's hard to predict what kind of team Arsene Wenger will show up with. A reinvigorated one, or a depressed one? Man Utd are on a roll and provided their minds are focused on the game and not on the Champions League final, they should be tough to handle. I recommend the Mancunians as draw-no-bet. Man City host West Ham and there shouldn't be an easier way to get 3 points. I see City winning this to keep alive their race for the Champions League berth and recommend them as a Win.

In the Serie A, Napoli should be able to dispatch Genoa at home. The hosts lost the race for the title by losing their last 2 games, but are still up for a Champions League qualification berth. With the return of some key players, they should be able to overcome a Genoa team that on the other hand will be missing first-team players due to suspension. I see Napoli winning this outright and this is my recommendation. Milan can wrap up the title this week-end and will be tough to beat when hosting Bologna. I believe they will win as well and recommend them as a Win.

In La Liga, same old story. Madrid should win against Zaragoza at home. Barcelona travel to Real Sociedad and might be without Messi. Even so, I cannot see them being defeated. For both giants, next week's return Champions League game will be on top of their minds, so it won't be surprising if Mourinho and Guardiola field their second teams. I recommend Madrid as outright Win, and a draw-no-bet looks safe on Barcelona.

In Germany, I like Dortmund's chances at home to Nurnberg. The hosts seem to be having a nervy time wrapping up the title, and have seen their lead at the top shrink like melted ice lately. I cannot see them beaten but they might have trouble getting the 3 points. A draw-no-bet on them is recommended. Bayern Munich host Schalke, and look like another good draw-no-bet option.

In France, Lille and PSG should not be losing their home games against Arles-Avignon and Valenciennes respectively. A draw-no-bet on them look safe as well.

In Holland, FC Twente and PSV Eindhoven make a lot of appeal against Willem and Vitesse. I see them as good draw-no-bets.

Finally, the best punt of the week-end seems to be in racing where Frankel looks to take all the beating in the 2000 Guineas. All the vibes from the Henry Cecil yard are positive and there does not seem to be any horse in the race that could stop the Galileo superstar. Unless Pathfork and Casamento have dramatically improved from last year, it's hard to see anything past Frankel. He's the recommendation of the week-end for a Win.

Win: Man City, Napoli, AC Milan, Real Madrid, Frankel.

Draw-no-bet: Man Utd, Barcelona, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Lille, Paris-St-Germain, PSV Eindhoven, FC Twente.

Tuesday preview

A fantastic week-end really where 8 out of 9 recommendations won and the remaining one was voided. Dick Turpin,  Nadal, Ajax, Athletico Madrid, Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool, Barcelona all won, while Bayern Munich (luckily) drew for a voided bet.

In the Premier League, Man Utd won impressively against a resolute and well-organized Everton team. The Red Devils deserved the win, and Chicharito did not have a necessarily good game but still scored when it mattered. Chelsea gave themselves a chance as title pursuers by beating West Ham as expected, but I don't think they'll catch Man Utd. Arsenal, oh dear, are out of it.

This week is much about the Champions League semi-finals. Mostly everyone seems to be writing off Schalke. Even the players themselves see Man Utd as overwhelming favourites to go through, probably to ease the pressure off themselves. The reality is that this is by no means a done deal and Schalke is a really good team that has the capacity to beat the Mancunians. It's true that it looks like Man Utd has a sort of mini-mental blockage when it comes to German opposition in European semi-finals; Dortmund, Leverkusen, Munich (although last year, Man Utd were simply unlucky not to go through). But I don't think any type of such blockage will play into effect in this year's semi-finals. The more realistic of the 2 teams will win, as I think both matches will be very tight. If Man Utd play like it did in Munich last year, it will have every chance to win the first leg; on that night, they outclassed Bayern only to go down on defensive mistakes. Same for the return leg. The current form of the Red Devils right now makes me sway in their favour, and I recommend them as a draw-no-bet.

In racing, at Wolves 17:45, I like Wolfgang from the Hannon yard. This two year-old Amadeus Wolf colt is described as small but speedy by his patrons, and looks the one to beat among a string of maidens and newcomers. The yard can always have one ready first-time out, so I recommend Wolfgang as a Place bet.

At Yarmouth 16:10, Asraab from the Godolphin yard makes a lot of appeal on his seasonal return. This Oasis Dream colt has shown a lot of potential in his 2 starts, posting a win and a second. He should take all the beating in this handicap contest, and I put a Win recommendation on him.

Win: Asraab
Place: Wolfgang
Draw-no-bet: Man Utd