That was an eventful week-end of racing. Power won the Irish 2000 Guineas proving that he did not handle the sloppy conditions in the English version. The field was within a few lengths on the good ground which means that there isn't much of a gap between the milers of this generation. If they meet again, the standings might very well be different. But certainly the biggest satisfaction of this blog is to have pinpointed long-shot Reply, who came out 3rd at odds of 25/1. A fantastic each-way that was for those that had the same confidence on supposedly weakest string of the Ballydoyle contingent.
Trumpet Major flopped but like the rest, wasn't disgraced, which means that none of them should be discarded in their future races. The eye-catcher of the race was certainly Born To Sea, who looked lively in the closing stages and the son of Urban Sea looks set to be on the progressive path. Definitely something worthy of note for future reference.
The female equivalent went to Samitar, a first Classic for the Mick Channon stable, and a first Classic for her sire Rock of Gibraltar. The son of Danehill has shown renewed promised as a sire from the past year, and this vital win could be the turning point of his stud career.
On the same card, So You Think started his last European campaign by easily disposing of an average field to win the Tattersalls Gold Cup. He cantered easily on-the-bridle and seems to have none of his ability. The only other runner of note was Famous Name, who's a Group 2 horse really. I just hope O'Brien gets it right this year with the best son of High Chaparral so that he can truly gets to show his steel.
French racing was also the subject of some momentous races, highlighted by the winning return of Golden Lilac, the Galileo filly that took the 3-year old honours last year. She had been sidelined since her only defeat and she seems to have overcome the injury problems that made her miss the second half of last year. By beating Cirrus des Aigles and Planteur fair and square, she proved she could be the one to beat in the important middle-distance races in Europe this year. The Arc looks right up her alley at this point and Andre Fabre, her conditioner, is a master planner for that race.
Lastly, Deep Brillante won the Japanese Oaks by the touch of a short head. Yet another Classic winner for Deep Impact, whose daughters in particular are really rocking this year.
This week is all about the lead-up to the Derby; It seems impossible to oppose Camelot at this stage, the son of Montjeu looks to prolong the sublime winning record of his sire in England's most prestigious race.
Showing posts with label Trumpet Major. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trumpet Major. Show all posts
Monday, May 28, 2012
Friday, May 25, 2012
Irish 2000 Guineas
All 11 entries stood their ground for the Irish 2000 Guineas on Saturday. I believe the winner will come from this pack, in no particular order of preference; Born To Sea, Hermival, Parish Hall, Power, Reply, Takar and Trumpet Major. The others are simply not of the same class as the above.
Born To Sea disappointed in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. Connections can point to the soft ground but I think he's more of a sprinter-type, and his pedigree confirms that, being by Invincible Spirit. Over the course of the year, it could be that can get a mile against seasoned milers, but this race might possibly come a little too soon for him after his flop a few weeks back. I think he can run a Place at best.
Hermival sprang a surprise when coming home third at Newmarket. This son of Dubawi should have no concern regarding the distance, although he will not be getting his preferred soft ground at the Curragh. He can be involved in the placings again but I don't think he will win.
Winner of last year's Dewhurst, Parish Hall makes his seasonal appearance in the Classic. It remains to be seen in what kind of disposition he is, and how well he's progressed over the winter. Connections must be bullish because he's been the subject of major market support in the run-in to the race. It's impossible to gauge his chances against horses that have already had one or two important outings already, but if he wins this, he could turn out to be the top miler of his generation. It seems to be safer to have him in the frame than an outright win.
Power looks to be the No 1 representative from the Ballydoyle camp, despite having tailed off at Newmarket, seemingly because of the soft ground conditions. He's clearly got a lot of talent, but as a sprinter and not as an outright miler. A slow pace will play to his advantage, but it's hard to see him reverse form with the other contenders from the 2000 Guineas and take this.
If there is to be a huge upset, I would not be surprised if it came from Reply, again from the Aidan O'Brien camp. Unless he's already been tasked to take the role of the non-honourable pace-maker, he is making his seasonal appearance and has unexposed form. He has been placed third in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes last year, so his race history has to be respected. If he is to be given a proper chance to run his race, this might be a value pick for long punters.
Takar is the ride of Johnny Murtagh for the Aga Khan. He's clearly a smart sort who's won his last race at listed level very comfortably. That race should have brought the necessary improvement in him but he will feel the difference in class. He might have his say in elite company, but a place at this stage looks more of a possibility than a win.
Finally, Trumpet Major represents the Richard Hannon stable, and comes from a honourable fourth place at Newmarket. He looked the winner two furlongs out and while connections point to the soft ground for his downfall, I think he just might not have been suited to the dip of the Rowley track. The firmer track might be to his advantage, and the fact that he stayed on in the 2000 Guineas means that the distance will suit well. I think he's sitting on a big race.
All said and done, I like Trumpet Major as an each-way. The Hannon camp won this race with Canford Cliffs a couple of years back, and they look set to strike again, or at least play a major role again. I think Takar and Parish Hall look poised to run well and complete the placings.
Each-way: Trumpet Major
Born To Sea disappointed in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. Connections can point to the soft ground but I think he's more of a sprinter-type, and his pedigree confirms that, being by Invincible Spirit. Over the course of the year, it could be that can get a mile against seasoned milers, but this race might possibly come a little too soon for him after his flop a few weeks back. I think he can run a Place at best.
Hermival sprang a surprise when coming home third at Newmarket. This son of Dubawi should have no concern regarding the distance, although he will not be getting his preferred soft ground at the Curragh. He can be involved in the placings again but I don't think he will win.
Winner of last year's Dewhurst, Parish Hall makes his seasonal appearance in the Classic. It remains to be seen in what kind of disposition he is, and how well he's progressed over the winter. Connections must be bullish because he's been the subject of major market support in the run-in to the race. It's impossible to gauge his chances against horses that have already had one or two important outings already, but if he wins this, he could turn out to be the top miler of his generation. It seems to be safer to have him in the frame than an outright win.
Power looks to be the No 1 representative from the Ballydoyle camp, despite having tailed off at Newmarket, seemingly because of the soft ground conditions. He's clearly got a lot of talent, but as a sprinter and not as an outright miler. A slow pace will play to his advantage, but it's hard to see him reverse form with the other contenders from the 2000 Guineas and take this.
If there is to be a huge upset, I would not be surprised if it came from Reply, again from the Aidan O'Brien camp. Unless he's already been tasked to take the role of the non-honourable pace-maker, he is making his seasonal appearance and has unexposed form. He has been placed third in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes last year, so his race history has to be respected. If he is to be given a proper chance to run his race, this might be a value pick for long punters.
Takar is the ride of Johnny Murtagh for the Aga Khan. He's clearly a smart sort who's won his last race at listed level very comfortably. That race should have brought the necessary improvement in him but he will feel the difference in class. He might have his say in elite company, but a place at this stage looks more of a possibility than a win.
Finally, Trumpet Major represents the Richard Hannon stable, and comes from a honourable fourth place at Newmarket. He looked the winner two furlongs out and while connections point to the soft ground for his downfall, I think he just might not have been suited to the dip of the Rowley track. The firmer track might be to his advantage, and the fact that he stayed on in the 2000 Guineas means that the distance will suit well. I think he's sitting on a big race.
All said and done, I like Trumpet Major as an each-way. The Hannon camp won this race with Canford Cliffs a couple of years back, and they look set to strike again, or at least play a major role again. I think Takar and Parish Hall look poised to run well and complete the placings.
Each-way: Trumpet Major
Friday, May 4, 2012
Crowning moment
This week-end will determine the eventual winner of the EPL. If Man City win at Newcastle, they'll win it. Anything else will lead to a Man Utd win, I believe. Man City holds the cards here and have their destiny in their hands. Can they win it at St James park where Newcastle has proved so difficult to overcome this season? I have a feeling they won't and will have to settle for 1 point at most.
Man Utd will beat Swansea at home, no doubt. There should be many goals in that one. Man Utd is a recommended as a straight win.
The 2000 Guineas will be the center of attention for racegoers. I persist in thinking that Camelot is not tailor-made for the mile and will be much better over longer distances as his pedigree suggests. He's a very good horse no doubt, but I think he's vulnerable at the distance and he is definitely way too short at his current price. He's a lay in my books. I believe his stablemate Power and John Oxx's Born To Sea are the value punts of the race. There are stamina doubts regarding Power, particularly if the grounds gets worse than soft. But if the conditions dry on race day, this battle-hardened colt has shown enough potential in his 2-year old season to be among the contenders. For punters looking for value, he looks like a good Place punt.
Born To Sea looks destined for great things like his half-brothers Galileo and Sea The Stars. His pedigree suggests that he will have more speed than these two, and a mile should be right up his alley. Like Power, he should be more convenienced with drier track conditions. At his current price, he looks worthy of a Place punt and this is the recommendation.
There are quite a few dark horses in the race such as french raiders Abtaal and French Fifteen. They could very well emulate Makfi and trump them all. But I think that Trumpet Major and Caspar Netscher have been over-cooked in their trial wins and are lays at the same level as Camelot.
This year's Kentucky Derby looks the most competitive it's been for years. I don't think Daddy Long Legs, the Coolmore representative has much of a chance here, unless he's turned out to be a superstar. First post and having flopped on his only start on dirt, do not provide confidence to the son of Scat Daddy. I think Bodemeister and Union Rags are sitting on big races here. Bodemeister was by far the most impressive in the prep races and although he's only had 4 races to date, he's been battle-hardened this year. Union Rags was mighty impressive before his disappointing run in the Florida Derby. I don't subscribe to the majority notion that his awful trip was the cause of his defeat. I think his trip wasn't as bad as perceived and that he was well-beaten on the day. Maybe he was under-cooked on the day, but he looks in prime condition for Saturday's race. Bodemeister looks the least vulnerable of the lot and he is a Place selection.
Man Utd will beat Swansea at home, no doubt. There should be many goals in that one. Man Utd is a recommended as a straight win.
The 2000 Guineas will be the center of attention for racegoers. I persist in thinking that Camelot is not tailor-made for the mile and will be much better over longer distances as his pedigree suggests. He's a very good horse no doubt, but I think he's vulnerable at the distance and he is definitely way too short at his current price. He's a lay in my books. I believe his stablemate Power and John Oxx's Born To Sea are the value punts of the race. There are stamina doubts regarding Power, particularly if the grounds gets worse than soft. But if the conditions dry on race day, this battle-hardened colt has shown enough potential in his 2-year old season to be among the contenders. For punters looking for value, he looks like a good Place punt.
Born To Sea looks destined for great things like his half-brothers Galileo and Sea The Stars. His pedigree suggests that he will have more speed than these two, and a mile should be right up his alley. Like Power, he should be more convenienced with drier track conditions. At his current price, he looks worthy of a Place punt and this is the recommendation.
There are quite a few dark horses in the race such as french raiders Abtaal and French Fifteen. They could very well emulate Makfi and trump them all. But I think that Trumpet Major and Caspar Netscher have been over-cooked in their trial wins and are lays at the same level as Camelot.
This year's Kentucky Derby looks the most competitive it's been for years. I don't think Daddy Long Legs, the Coolmore representative has much of a chance here, unless he's turned out to be a superstar. First post and having flopped on his only start on dirt, do not provide confidence to the son of Scat Daddy. I think Bodemeister and Union Rags are sitting on big races here. Bodemeister was by far the most impressive in the prep races and although he's only had 4 races to date, he's been battle-hardened this year. Union Rags was mighty impressive before his disappointing run in the Florida Derby. I don't subscribe to the majority notion that his awful trip was the cause of his defeat. I think his trip wasn't as bad as perceived and that he was well-beaten on the day. Maybe he was under-cooked on the day, but he looks in prime condition for Saturday's race. Bodemeister looks the least vulnerable of the lot and he is a Place selection.
Win: Man Utd.
Place: Born To Sea, Bodemeister
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