La Liga resumes

This is going to be a quiet week-end with the Cup game match-ups I'm not particularly fond of. Too many risks of upsets and top teams not fielding their starting eleven. Fortunately, La Liga resumes duties and both giants Barcelona and Real Madrid have seemingly easy fixtures at home.

The Catalans are a certainty to win the title this year. No way Real or Atletico can join them. The question at Madrid is whether manager Mourinho will finish the season with them. Considering the continuing deterioration of his relationships with players and executives over there, it might not be farfetched to think that he'll be out soon. Much of Madrid's chances to overcome Man Utd in the Champions League depends on him staying. Just like much of the Red Devils' chances of advancing will depend on the availability of captain Vidic to strengthen their defence. More on that in due time. For the moment, it looks safe to have Barcelona and Madrid as winners on their Sunday comeback.

Win: Barcelona, Real Madrid

Premier League 2012/13 Preview

In one swift move, that can be characterized as another moment of brilliance, Alex Ferguson has tilted the balance of power for the coming Premier League season. This is the move that everyone else did not want happen but which the Utd boss desperately needed to catch up with the might of neighbours City. Robin Van Persie's move to Utd is clearly a game changer for both the EPL and Champions League as the Red Devils can now boast about having the best strike force in the world; Rooney, RVP, Chicharito, Kagawa, and Wellbeck, not to mention that the equally good Berbatov is ailing on the sidelines. Since the massive news of the transfer of the Dutchman, rumours are abounding about the parting of Chicharito, and even if that were to happen, the strike force would still be most fearsome. Goals will be bountiful.

I don't have much doubt in my mind that the EPL crown will stay in Manchester this season. On paper, City are still a little better than Utd. They however need to show they can retain the title. It is always so much easier to get to the top than to stay there, as the saying goes. On the managerial side, there is no problem in that regard as Mancini has notched 3 consecutive titles in the Serie A with Inter Milan. The distraction of the Champions League should still leave him focused enough for the EPL challenge. Their main challenge he will face is keeping the team together and minimize off-pitch issues with the likes of Tevez and Balotelli. Although they have been rather muted on the transfer market so far, this City squad is most impressive and can beat any team on any day.

Going back to Utd, their weaknesses lie in defence and midfield, just like last year. Much of their hopes relies on the availability of captain Vidic. His non-availability last year was what caused their demise and they will be destined to the same fate if he spends much time on the sidelines again. He is irreplaceable. In midfield, there is a clear lack of playmaker; Paul Scholes is still high-class but he can only be used sparingly. It is clear that Ferguson wanted upcoming Eden Hazard or Lucas Moura to fill in that gap and the fact that he lost out on both counts will enliven the debate as to who will rule the Utd midfield. If Brazilian Anderson stays fit, he could be the one, but he's too often prone to injuries.

The title will certainly be between Utd and City and Londoners Chelsea or Arsenal should challenge for third place. Chelsea are an enigma team as they have players on the wane and interesting newcomers like Hazard. Di Matteo is a good coach and he's possibly their best permanent signing of the season. If Arsenal stay consistent the whole season, they are my favourites to get that remaining podium spot, even without RVP. Time and again, Arsene Wenger has shown that he can replace the players that have left, and the arrivals of Giroud, Cazorla and Podolski will possibly fill much of the gap. The problem with Arsenal, as I have been writing, is that there is a missing ingredient in Arsene's management that keeps them from reaching the top; that inherent will to win that Ferguson and Mourinho have, that filters through to the whole team and give them 10 extra points during a season. It's not about just pretty football or massive profit targets, it's about winning games when everything is on the line and bringing trophies and making winners out of players.

I see Tottenham under-achieving compared to last year. Clearly getting rid of Redknapp, one of the 5 best managers in the league, is a step down. Villa Boas is good, but does not compare. Liverpool are a re-building side and the arrival of new manager Rogers from Swansea will not make them title contenders.

For those that have an appetite for ante-post or such markets that take months to settle, the following below are my value punts for the EPL given the odds available today. Of course, the season flows and ebbs and prices change significantly during the year but at this stage, those odds look under-priced on the exchanges.

Winner: Man Utd/Man City

Top 2: Man Utd

Top 3: Man City, Man City

Top 4: Arsenal

Lay: Tottenham Top 3, Liverpool Top 4

Classic impact

The predictions were good with Man City, Arsenal and Tottenham all winning on the last day, but obviously, fat chance played a big role. City finally won the game and the title after giving their supporters the biggest fright imaginable. Their title win and that of Real Madrid in La Liga made for a nice double that was fancied here for the last few months. Sports is a funny game where this kind of selection could easily have gone astray had the Citizens failed to score in injury time. It worked this time.

The excitement of the last day of the Premiership showed why it is the most thrilling league to follow. It's not the best anymore, in that the best 2 clubs in the world are in Spain. However, I don't think anyone in the FA will want to swap places with a league where the gap between 2nd and 3rd place are 39 staggering points!

Some news of the note over last week-end and in the last few days. The non-selection of Rio Ferdinand for Euro 2012 is a good one. He's become more a liability at the back nowadays and his game has slowed markedly over the past couple of years. One of the reasons Man Utd lost the title this year was because the loss of Vidic exposed the vulnerabilities of Ferdinand.

The selection of Terry is a good one too, the only reason being that there is no other accomplished central defender in the squad. Reality is there is a serious lack of a top-class English central defender and that even a regressing Terry is better than what is available. That said, with or without Terry, England will concede goals because the defence is poor.

On the racing front, the French Guineas saw the coronation of Beauty Parlour and Lucayan. The former is a daughter of Deep Impact and looks set to dominate the 3-year old division this year. If she has no rival at a mile, I wonder who will challenge her at longer distances for which her pedigree suits perfectly. This is oh-so sweet revenge for her sire, who was not given the best preparation to showcase his talent on his only foray on French soil.

Another Japanese sire that had a prominent runner in the male Classic was Hat Trick, sire of Dabirsim, the champion 2-year old. He did not have the best of trips, but he also showed he did not quite get the mile distance. He could be factor over the sprint distances in Europe this year if that is the route his connections choose for him. But all this is a far cry from the greatness he looked set for after his overly promising debut season.

This coming week-end is all about the Preakness Stakes in the US and the return of Frankel in the Lockinge at Newbury. I don't usually favour ante-post but with the race only 2 days away, the odds in that market for the superstar miler will not be reached again. It's impossible to go against Frankel, and the recommendation is to take Frankel now and on race-day as well.

Antepost win: Frankel

Decisive time

The big news going into the week-end are the imminent departure of Guardiola from Barcelona. I really hope he gets to manage an EPL team on his return. What he's achieved at Barcelona, particularly the kind of football they play and preach, is unbelievable.

The EPL reaches its crescendo with the upcoming Manchester Derby that will most possibly determine the season's winner. It's been a wild ride with momentum change from one club to the other and the match is really a 6-pointer. Clear advantage is for Man City at the present since they are at home and are on a winning run. It will be interesting to see what frame of mind the Red Devils are in, after their confidence-sapping game against Everton last week. Their main problem is their leaky central defence of Evans and Ferdinand. Vidic is a big missing element in that rear-guard. But obviously, Alex Ferguson's men always rise to the occasion when backed to the wall, and it would be of no surprise if they controlled the game and actually left with the 3 points. Man City's hopes rest mainly on the power of their Argentinian forwards in Aguero and Tevez. These 2 can wreck havoc in any defence, and will certainly have their opportunities to test de Gea. This game looks to be a cracker and hopefully the referee won't play any decisive role in the outcome. I think the Citizens will edge this in the end, but this is just my hunch.

Wolves are relegated as I've been repeating they would for weeks now. I think it's still ok to go against them and Swansea look good value to continue the visitors' winless run under manager Connor. The selection is Swansea as a draw-no-bet.

I also like West Brom's chances as it hosts Aston Villa. If I were to guess another team to be relegated, I think Villa would be prime contenders. The Villains still have some blind faith in manager Mc Leish, and that could prove their undoing. How ironic that he relegated their fierce rivals Birmingham last year, and he's about to relegate them now. Villa is an awful team to watch and their cause is not being helped by the continued absence of their prolific striker Darren Bent. West Brom as draw-no-bet is the recommendation.

My value punt of the week-end goes to Wigan against Newcastle. The Latics have performed admirably of late but they still have to gather points to secure themselves from relegation. Newcastle is my pick for overachieving team this year and they are certainly in contention for a Champions League spot. They will go to the DW Stadium with hope and confidence with individuals such as Cisse and Ben Arfa, who have the capacity to influence a game on a moment's brilliance. I will opt for Wigan here because they can make it hard for visiting teams to play their regular rhythmic football, as Man Utd has attested a couple of weeks back. I recommend Wigan as a draw-no-bet.

In La Liga, Real look set to put their mid-week UCL disappointment behind them when they host Sevilla. The Los Blancos are a sure win here as they march towards the title and that's the recommendation.

It's tough to gauge Barcelona's visit to Rayo.  The hosts are a tough nut to crack at home and will pose problems should the Catalans be not fully focused on the game, for obvious reasons. On the other hand, it could be that the visitors will show extra motivation to win the remaining games under Guardiola. Should Real not bag the 3 points during their earlier match, then Barcelona will try to pounce, but that I cannot see that scenario happening. It's just better to have a punt at Real's games at the moment, because they are the ones with the motivation to go all-out; the carrot is dangling in front of them.


Win: Real Madrid
Draw-no-bet: Swansea, West Brom, Wigan

Taking on the world

A couple of disappointing results on Sunday marred what looked to be a very promising week-end after Saturday; Juventus and Sevilla failed miserably, Man Utd drew and the rest of the selections won.

Man Utd made yet another remarkable comeback but I don't know whether to label their 3-all draw at Chelsea as a point gained or two points lost. On the basis of the game itself, I believe they deserved to get the 3 points out of the match; without their 10-minute folly at the start of the second half, they were mostly the best team on the pitch. But their problem is their weak defence. Johnny Evans (again) on the team-sheet should just give shudders to Utd fans. Rio Ferdinand is clearly not the defender he once was. Their chances to concede goals goes dramatically up with the absence of Vidic. Goalkeeper De Gea has been the subject of ridicule since he joined the club but his save from the Mata free-kick in the end was just top-class.

Chelsea played without core players like Terry, Cole, Drogba and Lampard and were mainly opportunistic on their goals. Again, their best player turned out to be Mata. Stifle Mata (if you can) and the whole Chelsea machine comes to a halt; I don't see them getting any silverware this season.

So at the end of it all, Man City open a 2-point lead at the top but Sir Alex's team looks to have turned up the notch a few levels, just as you'd expect them to at this time of the season. City's remaining schedule looks arguably easier and they will greatly benefit from the return of some of their stars from the African Nations Cup. Provided they don't choke, the odds are still in City's favour.

In racing, Alpha turned out an easy winner in the Withers. It will be interesting to follow the Triple Crown trail this year with its record number of entries including quite a few from powerhouses such as Ballydoyle and Godolphin.

Just following some of the latest racing news that Black Caviar might feature at Dubai World Cup night before going to Royal Ascot. I dearly hope that happens and what's certain for me is that there'll be only one horse to punt on. Even with the other superstar sprinter Sepoy to challenge, Black Caviar is just a notch above any other sprinter in this world. Every racing fan is certainly waiting for her to strut her stuff on the world stage this year.

Lifeline to pursuers

Very patchy run at the moment as Man Utd won as predicted, but Dortmund drew for a voided punt, and Real Madrid lost to Barcelona over the week-end.

The game at the Bernabeu could have really gone either way and it was a case of Barcelona realism talking as they took the most of their chances while Real Madrid spurned some great ones, uncharacteristically through Ronaldo. While Mourinho's persistence on the word "luck" to describe Barca's second goal holds water, the same can be same of Real's opening goal. A gift from Valdes. Certainly, had Ronaldo found the net to make it two nil when he only had the Barcelona keeper to beat, the game would probably have taken a different steering as Real would have taken a quite unassailable lead at that point of the match.

So what to make after the Clasico result? With one match still in hand, I still believe that Real hold a minute advantage at this stage. Barcelona have got the World Club Cup competition to address and it remains to be seen how its players will be affected by the congested fixture. It will be a case of which of the two avoids losing points to the rest of the league before the decisive match at the Nou Camp. But clearly, the mental and point advantage that Madrid were enjoying before their defeat has mostly vanished and it is a case of them trying to maximize points by going on a long winning run again.


In the EPL, Man City lost to Chelsea and allowing neighbours Man Utd to bridge the gap to 2 points. The Red Devils look set to start a winning run again after dispatching Wolves. Having Rooney regain his scoring touch must have been a great welcome and will be all too important for them given that they have lost Chicharito for quite a long time. It's still advantage Man City though for many reasons; more complete squad, Utd lost their best defender Vidic for the season, return leg will be at Etihad Stadium.

I still strongly think they are deserving favourites for the title although Utd will not go down without fighting. Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal will only be distant contenders, in my opinion.

What kind of Clasico?

Interesting week-end in the Premier League where Man City are set for a tough test at Chelsea. This game is really too close to call, and it can go either way. That's one major hurdle in the Citizens' quest for the title and if they get 3 points out of it, their odds will surely go even lower.

The surest outcome in the EPL looks to be at Old Trafford where the reeling Red Devils welcome Wolves. The hosts suffered yet another setback when they lost Vidic for the season. Given that they probably were given the hair dryer treatment the whole week by boss Sir Alex Ferguson, they should be able to squeeze through this game. It's safest to go draw-no-bet on them, given that confidence must be at an very low level at Utd.

All the other games in the EPL look tight, so I wouldn't be surprised to see lots of draw matches this week-end.

The focus in European football is really on Sunday's El Clasico. These Clasico's have disappointed last year as they were subject to an abysmal level of un-fair play. So I will not have my spirits raised on those matches this year even though they clearly will oppose the 2 best football sides in the world, not just Spain or Europe. I've mentioned over the past weeks that Madrid look set to end years of domination from their Barcelona rivals, and this game on Sunday will be right for them to prove that they can be on a par with their fierce rivals. Barcelona are still the best team in the world and will be hard to beat, but they have lacked success on the road this year and nothing seems to indicate that they will have improved on their travels as they reach the Bernabeu. Madrid has the hunger and are driven by a manager that practically never loses at home. I see value in backing the hosts as draw-no-bet in this game. Obviously, it's never a sure thing to go against Barcelona, but the conditions look ripe to be on the side of the Los Blancos, assuming the inherent risk element involved. I think Madrid will be the side partying after the game.

In Germany, I like Dortmund as it hosts Kaiserslautern. A draw-no-bet on them should be safe.

Draw-no-bet: Man Utd, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund

The Grand Final

Saturday sees Wembley takes centre-stage for the "biggest show on Earth" as football titans Barcelona and Man Utd clash in the Champions League (CL) final. So much has been written on this final, from Barcelona's fantastic football to Man Utd's rigid defence. All angles are being covered in the media with the aim to predict the outcome of the match. Even the Wall Street Journal is having its say on what makes Barca the super team they are.

There won't be a recommendation from me because this game could turn into anything. At current odds, Barcelona is too short. On the other hand, who would be brave enough to say that a Man Utd win is a certainty? However spectacular these 2 teams are, there isn't even a certainty that the football that will be played will be of great quality. A final with such high stakes can transform the greatest offensive team into a defensive giant.

What is certain is that Barcelona is the best team in the world going into this game. They play the best football, they have the best players, and they have someone called Lionel Messi. But in a final played in 90 minutes, extra time and penalities, they are beatable, just like Real Madrid beat them in the Copa del Rey. They are not invincible. 

I've repeated many times that Man Utd have over-achieved this year, and they will have to over-achieve even more to have a chance to win the final. They have something intangible that Barcelona maybe don't have (or more appropriately, haven't needed to have); a fighting never-say-die spirit, inherited from their manager, that always gives them a chance even when they seem to be after a losing cause. Think the CL 99 League final against Bayern Munich at the Nou Camp!

Two years ago, Barca beat Man Utd 2-0 in the final at Rome. Most observers agree that on the match overall, this was the right result. The better part of the observers have also noted that Man Utd dominated the match in the first 10 minutes and had 2 great chances to score, before Samuel Eto'o turned the match on its head with a brilliant goal. I am not saying that Man Utd would have won if they had scored first in the first 10 minutes, but it is certain that the match would have been different than the 1-sided proposition we saw after that first goal.

So can Man Utd do something this time? I believe they can. Historically, their manager Ferguson has relished being the final underdog. His Aberdeen side beat mighty Real Madrid in the 1983 European Cup Winners Cup final. His Man Utd team won its first European trophy under his helm by beating heavily-favored Barcelona in the 1991 version. It will be a matter of how he comes up with the tactics again to stifle a potent opponent. Which brings me to a momentous but yet not-too-much-talked point of this final; where is Barcelona's weak point, if there's any? For me it's the central defense, notably the Pique-Puyol axis.

Let there be no misinterpretation, Pique and Puyol form a solid defence, almost but not quite as stingy as the Ferdinand-Vidic pairing. Barca's football means that everything starts from Pique to its ever-mobile midfielders. The classy defender has been likened to Beckenbauer for his very stylish and mobile style. The fact that Barcelona have 70% of ball possession in their matches means that their defence is rarely ever subject to constant testing. Real Madrid has shown in a few of the El Clasico encounters that they can be stretched and exposed and the Ronaldo goal that settled the Copa del Rey was a case where the defenders were all at sea. I believe Alex Ferguson will have witnessed that and this is an area where Chicharito's speed and intelligence can cause serious damage.

In another twist of fate, it was Ferguson who let go of Pique to his native Barcelona because of the surge of Johnny Evans in the reserve ranks. A seemingly innocuous deal that in hindsight, has transformed the Catalans into a powerhouse and changed the football world. On Saturday, the Man Utd coach will be aiming his strikers to do his rare "bad" decision some justice and beat his former pupil.

My hope for this final is that the Pedro's, Busquet's and Alves' keep their playacting on the side so that the referee-ing does not have any impact on the result. I've recommended both teams many times in this CL campaign and they have done all my recommendations justice. I believe this game will be decided out of a brilliant play somewhere. If it's decided on penalties, so be it, that's part of football.

This is a final and I'm going to have a punt regardless of whether it's safe or not. I will go lightweight for Man Utd +0.5 +1.0 on the Asian Handicap. Not a recommendation; just that I think the stars are aligned for them to win it in the end. Van der Sar's last game will have him pumped up. Ji-Sung Park, the da Silvas, Valencia, Chicharito, Berbatov, etc for a first CL medal. I wouldn't mind that outcome. Come on Man Utd!

Rory fades but the Roar is back

A quite superb week-end it was with 6 out of 7 recommendations winning, and 1 voided for a draw. Inter, Barcelona, Man Utd, Lyon, Aston Villa and Chelsea all won, while Marseille drew at home to Toulouse.

Not much to take anew from the world of football where the major protagonists in English, Italian, and Spanish Leagues won. Man Utd look rock solid, their deep squad coming through when needed. Having only the League to play for should give Arsenal the necessary focus and energy to handle their remaining games better than usual. In La Liga, Barcelona and Madrid are sharpening their knives ahead of the clasico's ahead. The return to form of Kaka is a massive boost for the Los Blancos. We'll see if that's enough to derail Messi and company.

For me, the main story of the week-end was Tiger's performance at the Masters, particularly the last round on Sunday. Too bad Rory McIlroy capitulated at the end, but it looks like Tiger's finally back! And that's great news for punters because at his best, there's probably no more dominating athlete in any sport besides Tiger! It's time to take a close tab on his next tournaments, that's for sure.

Going back to football, on Tuesday, Man Utd host Chelsea for the return leg of the Champions League. I can't see Utd losing this game. This is potentially the last meaningful game of the season for Chelsea to play for, and that will surely drive them. But Man Utd have the form, the youth, the hunger, the first-game result, and the fans on their side. Rio Ferdinand is back to tighten things at the back with Vidic. Hard to see a declining Blues team getting a result at Old Trafford. A draw-no-bet on Rooney and his teammates is recommended.

Draw-no-bet: Man Utd

Week-end Football Preview

First, my thoughts to the Japanese people following the devastating quake and tsunami. I don't think I've ever seen such kind of devastation. There are Japanese readers to this blog, and I keep my fingers crossed for you.

On Thursday, got a great result in the shape of Braga's win over Liverpool. At odds-against, the prediction on Braga's draw-no-bet win was one of the best and most satisfying on this blog. At Meydan, as mentioned, Godolphin was dominating. Mike de Kock's Here To Win disappointed though with an unplaced finish, and coincidence or not, whenever the big trainer is not on the premises (was in Johannesburg), the results are not as positive. Alluding to this because at one time a couple of years back, Mike himself was mentioning that there was a perception that whenever he was enjoying success in Dubai, his horses based in South Africa were not doing as well.

A busy week-end of football coming up on the European front. In England, FA Cup rules with a juicy Man Utd hosting Arsenal. This is my take on Man Utd at the present. Last year they lost out on the domestic League and Champions League in a 7-day span where they hit poor form and injuries for 3 consecutive crucial games, which ended up wrecking their pursuit of major trophies. A similar script seems to be developing for them at this time. They first hit major injuries by losing Anderson, Ferdinand, Park, and now Nani. Then Vidic their defensive rock got suspended. These, coupled with indifferent form, have resulted in defeats at Wolves, Chelsea and Liverpool. So now, come Arsenal, and more importantly Marseille, and they will still be without their best 2 midfielders in Nani and Park. It does not look rosy for them in the short term, and you feel that they do need that little extra luck in games to get out of the predicament that they are presently in. Man Utd v/s Arsenal really can go either way, and I feel the Red Devils will be keeping their best team for the Marseille game next week.

I was mentioning before FA Cup matches are unpredictable and are to be mostly avoided, but when Man City is hosting Reading at this stage, I've got to recommended City at least as a draw-no-bet. The Citizens just come from a debacle travel in the Europa League, and Reading are giant killers, but I simply cannot see them overcome the massively talented squad at Eastlands. Even if Mancini plays his second team, they won't be beaten at home against the Championship side.

In Italy. I've got to go with Milan against Bari. Milan got bumped by Tottenham in mid-week Champions League and will be keen to make amends. The Serie A is their hope for silverware, and it won't come any easier than Bari. Because of their mid-week exertions, a draw-no-bet on Milan is recommended.

In Spain, Mourinho has started the mind games with Barcelona as he becomes desperate to overcome the gap with the Catalans. Madrid host Hercules, and it's a straight Win recommendation for Mourinho's men. Sevilla hosts Barcelona in what should be a pretty tight affair. I would not be surprised to see Barcelona lose points here. In fact, Sevilla are dangerous enough to create problems and win this game against a Barcelona team that might be exposed having played in mid-week. I'll abstain from a recommendation on this one.

In Germany, I see value in backing Werder Bremen as it hosts last-place Monchengladbach. Bremen are better than the lowly position they are in, and I recommend them as a draw-no-bet.

In France, Lille plays hosts to Valenciennes and I expect Lille to win this, as they are really good at home. A draw-no-bet on them should be safe.


Win: Real Madrid
Draw-no-bet: Man City, Milan, Werder Bremen, Lille