Justify - On the way to the Triple Crown

A loaded Saturday looms up as league football comes to an end and racing starts its full flight.

The FA Cup brings the curtain down in English football. Man Utd against Chelsea is an intriguing match as the teams are close and have proven very tricky to back. It's Mourinho against Conte with what promises to be a defensive match with not many goals. I believe this match will go the extra distance and possibly decided on penalties. Chelsea have lost their way in the last weeks of the season possibly because of all the exit talk regarding manager Conte. The Italian will definitely not be at the helm next season and there is a serious question mark regarding his or his team motivation. Winning the FA Cup won't save him. On the other hand, as everyone knows, Mourinho has a near-impeccable record in finals and will have done his home work so as not to lose to his old team. I just cannot see Man Utd losing this match in 90 minutes. If it goes to penalties, then it will be the luck of the lottery to get the winner. For punters itching for a bet, I suggest a draw-no-bet on the Red Devils.

The German Cup sees champions Bayern taking on Frankfurt. This is the last match of manager Heynckes behind the Bayern bench as they go against a team managed by his successor next season. Although the Munich team will be missing a few regulars, it's hard to see them lose this match. Heynckes should go back to retirement on a winning note.

I don't think I've seen such a poor quality field lining up for the Lockinge on Saturday. Sure, 16 horses will provide the quantity but it's hard to be excited about a star running the show. There is no Group 1 miler in the field. Limato and Rhododendron are legitimate Group 1 horses but that would be at sprint level for the former and middle distances for the latter. If push comes to shove, Rhododendron is my pick.

The racing event to follow will be at Pimlico Stateside where Justify runs the Preakness, the second step of the Triple Crown. His form towers against anything else in the field. Provided he takes to the sloppy track, he should win this handily. Having heard all angles and from the bullish connections, I think he will.

European Week-end Football

Some of my thoughts on this week-end's matches.

Tottenham v/s Chelsea. The reunion of Mourinho and ex-staffer Villas-Boas. The press might have tried, but no-one knows the level of break-down between the 2 managers. Maybe they'll give a better clue during the pre-match or post-match handshakes. On the pitch, I think Chelsea will be in for a torrid time. Spurs are no slouch at home and given their level of form, I like their chances to get at least a point out of this game. They are the draw-no-bet selection of this week-end.

Aston Villa v/s Man City. The hosts will be missing their key weapon Benteke for the next few games and that is not a good omen for them. Man City are currently firing on all cylinders and their demolition of neighbours Man Utd last week-end will have given a mighty spring in their step. They should get out of Villa Park with full points. Straight win for the Citizens.

Fulham v/s Cardiff. It's been a up and down start of the season so far for the Cottagers and they will relish the visit of Cardiff for some much-needed 3 points. Berbatov and Bent can do serious damage on their best day, and I reckon the hosts represent great value for the win at current odds here.

Man Utd v/s West Brom. The probability of WBA coming out of Old Trafford looks bleak. Now that their matches against the big runs are over, this could be the start of a winning run for the Red Devils. They should win this, particularly with RVP back.

Southampton v/s Crystal Palace. Soton are a tough team to break down at home and there is no reason to believe that Palace will reverse poor opposition records at the St Mary's. The hosts should build on last Saturday's impressive win at Anfield and get the 3 points.

Sunderland v/s Liverpool. The Black Cats are a team in disarray. Obviously, Di Canio was never going to be a long-term fit. Suarez and Sturridge will relish this clash; I cannot see Liverpool getting beaten in this one. I see value backing them with a straight win.

In Spain, I see wins for Barcelona and Valencia. I like Real Sociedad as a draw-no-bet against Sevilla.

In the Bundesliga, Dortmund and Bayern should get full points and continue their duel at the top of the table.

Win: Man City, Fulham, Man Utd, Southampton, Liverpool, Barcelona, Valencia, Dortmund, Bayern
Draw-no-bet: Tottenham, Real Sociedad.

UCL - Round 1

Champions League football starts on Tuesday and this year's competition looks wide open now that many of the leading clubs are under new management. There are certainly bound to be a few surprises out of the preliminary stages. Here are my thoughts on some of Tuesday's matches.

Man Utd v/s Leverkusen. I am probably one of just a handful that think that Man Utd are thoroughly exposed Group A. I don't think it's as easy a group for them and the fact that they are odds-against to land the group looks too short to me. Let's not forget that it will be Moyes' only second venture at this level and as his predecessor SAF would say, experience is the key. They might go through to the knockout stages but I doubt it will be plain sailing. Their opponents Leverkusen, Shakhtar and Sociedad will all be tough cookies. Tomorrow's opponents Leverkusen are in very good form in the Bundesliga, having won 4 of their first 5 games. They have a dangerous striker in Kiessling who will be a goal scoring threat at Old Trafford. I think this will be a really close game and wouldn't be surprised if it ended in a draw. Still, Man Utd are always formidable at home on these European nights and could very well nick it at the end. The Red Devils are a draw-no-bet selection.

Real Sociedad v/s Shahktar. I really fancy the Spaniards to finish in the top 2 of this group. They are a real talented team that ended up 4th in La Liga and knocked off French outfit Lyon in convincing fashion in the qualifying round. They will aim to get maximum points at home to further their aspirations for the next round. Shakhtar are on their 4th consecutive UCL season but have lost arguably their best player in Willian to Chelsea. At current odds, I really like Real Sociedad as a draw-no-bet.

FC Kobenhavn v/s Juventus. No contest here, this looks like 3 straight easy points for Juve.

Benfica v/s Anderlecht. The hosts look good value to land the spoils. I have reservations about the quality of this Belgian side, which does not seem anywhere as good as its predecessors. One of these 2 teams should accompany favourites PSG to the next round, so the Portuguese will want to get maximum points from this encounter.

Olympiakos v/s PSG. The French should get at least a point out of this if they fail to win, so they are a draw-no-bet selection.

Bayern v/s CSKA Moscow. Straight win for the defending champions.

Viktoria v/s Man City. Pellegrini knows UCL better than Mancini, so I expect City to do well in the competition this season. They should very well go through to the next round. They will have Kompany back for the game and should be difficult to score against. Viktoria are a decent team that actually managed to tie Milan at home a couple of years ago. So the Citizens should be on their guard on this one and it's safest to stick with them as a draw-no-bet.

Win: Bayern Munich, Juventus, Benfica
Draw-no-bet: Man Utd, Real Sociedad, Man City, PSG

Choker tag on the line

The UCL final at Wembley is the main event of the week-end, pitting the 2 German teams Bayern Munich and Dortmund. On paper and based on form, Bayern looks difficult to beat and is the overwhelming favourite. But looks are very deceiving. For those that think that the Munich team will win it easily, consider this; Bayern have not beaten Dortmund in a league game for the past couple of years. They have lost more UCL finals than they've won. They lost when to Porto in 1987 when practically no-one thought the Portuguese had the slightest chance. Last year, they lost the final to Chelsea when playing at their vaunted Allianz Arena. They also lost to Man Utd during the Red Devils' Triple Crown coronation in 1999, and again to Mourinho's Inter Milan in the 2010 Final. In comparison, Dortmund's sole UCL final appearance and victory came as a massive under-dog against Juventus in 1997.

So, the word "choker" springs to mind when The Bavarians get to the final. But that's not to say that this year  might not be different; Bayern really look overwhelmingly strong this year. They crushed the Bundesliga early and annihilated Barcelona on their way to Wembley. This is a team that is really on the ascendancy and will be peaking in the coming years, provided upcoming coach Guardiola does not wreck them.

Against them is a strong Dortmund team that has the belief that this Cup is theirs for the taking. They were nearly dead and buried against Malaga, yet conjured up 2 goals in injury-time to make it through. They were not supposed to overcome mighty Real Madrid, yet they outplayed and outscored them. On its best day, this team can beat anyone, even Bayern. They are led by a maestro motivator in manager Klopp. They have world-class players like Lewandowski, Reus and Gotze that can open up any defence. But here's one thing; Gotze will miss the final due to a hamstring injury. That's a massive blow for Dortmund. He's their playmaker and although he's Bayern-bound next year, he would have been a real threat for the men in yellow.

The pressure will definitely be more on Bayern. They have to score first and preferably early to settle their nerves. Their ability to impose their game will be instrumental. They have beaten their opponents in the German Cup this season which will have given them belief that they can win the game in 90 minutes. Dortmund will most probably sit back and rely on their deadly counter-attack. Anything can happen in a final; the team that makes of the most of its chances will win. There's no certainty here; but I think that with some luck, Bayern is ready to dispel the myths and confirm the current thinking that they are indeed the best in Europe. Whether in full or injury-time, or on penalties, my feeling is that the Bavarians will prevail.

Changing Landscape

This end of football season in the European leagues looks set to be the watershed to the impending massive changes to bestow upon them next year. With the great SAF retiring, Man Utd will be under a new manager after 27 years. But the winds of change have affected many other European powerhouses as well; in England, Chelsea looks set for the second coming of Mourinho and Pellegrini has apparently been given the reins at Man City. The best 3 teams in England will be under new leaders. In Italy, Milan is on the verge of getting rid of Allegri after a so-so first season. Inter are on the look-out for a new coach as well. In Spain, the much-maligned Mourinho has finally been booted out of Madrid, to the delight of Spanish fans in general. Malaga will also look for a new manager after the departure of Pellegrini. In Germany, Guardiola is taking over the powerful Bayern Munich. Finally, so far, in France, PSG are looking to replace want-away Ancelotti for whom Real Madrid came calling.

We are talking here of 8 big teams that played in this year's Champions League. This is bound to affect not only their domestic leagues but next year's dynamics in the UCL as well. It is too early to say whether teams like Barcelona will have the advantage of continuity with them. After all, much of it will depend on player personnel as well. Rooney looks to be out of Man Utd, Dortmund will be losing some key players, Real Madrid is already working on their list of surplus to requirements. And probably more importantly, Neymar will make his European debut, quite possibly under a Barcelona shirt.

English football itself is moving into a new era with the retirement of Scholes, Beckham and Owen. While their careers were already on the wane for the past few years, there is no doubt that their names are etched forever in England folklore for their contributions to the game. They were some of the finest to ever don a Lions shirt and have made their indelible mark.

The carousel round of managers and players will make for a hectic transfer summer season . A new dawn of football will start in August. The retired ones will be missed but football will hold its intrigue more than ever.

The Greatest - Sir Alex Ferguson

I don't think there could be a more massive news than yesterday's in football. Sir Alex Ferguson retirement news is a bombshell in itself and the fact that it was just out of the blue made it all the more sensational. This is about the only manager many Man Utd fans will have known. And the greatest one that ever managed a football team. Like any sort of transitioning in any business, this is bound to hit Man Utd hard. Liverpool have yet to recover from their glory days in the 80's. Although it is hard to fathom that the current Red Devils will suffer that kind of drought, it looks far-fetched to think that without the man, they will be able to sustain the kind of trophy collection that they've been so accustomed to under his guidance. Only Fergie's mastery and vision could have withstood the threat from big spenders like Chelsea and Man City in the past years. Yesterday's news will have given these teams a mighty spring in their step, that this might be finally their time for dominance.

Without Fergie, there is no doubt that Man Utd will go to battle without their soul. They will fight as they always do, but there will be that invisible all-important ingredient missing. The rampant feeling is that David Moyes will be the anointed replacement. There's no doubt that he's an excellent coach who's been doing wonders at Everton for the past years. The major downside is that he's never won a trophy and does not have Champions League experience. He might still be the best one for the job, particularly for the long term. But for the short term, things don't look rosy for the champions. Changes will be inevitable and some will be destabilizing. The news that Rooney is again asking for departure; his request might have been prior to the Ferguson news but it still is one of the many challenges facing the club in this new dawn.

The chance to work with Ferguson was an appeal for foreign stars to join the club. It's hard to think that the attraction will be the same under a new coach. Man Utd is bound to find it harder in the transfer market. With Fergie, a game was never lost until the final whistle. Man Utd fans have abundant memories of matches being won in injury time. With their never-say-die attitude, Fergie's teams made 0 point into 1, 1 point into 3, and jaws of defeat into glorious wins; ask Bayern Munich in the 1999 European Cup, arguably Fergie's finest hour.

Although it is too early to make predictions, there is every reason to believe that Man Utd will fall short of making the same kind of points haul in the EPL next year. This does not mean that the Red Devils cannot win the league again or be a major force in football. It's just that their dominance and awe, as we know it today, is over. The change of the guard will impact, it always does. If there is no shift of power, there is a bound to be a major re-balancing of it. This is a new dawn for Man Utd and English football. The top end of the EPL will certainly be looking different than the ones in the last decades.

Comeback, only a dream for Real

Tonight is a momentous point in the career of Jose Mourinho; do the near-impossible and thrash Dortmund by 3 goals at least to qualify Real Madrid to the Champions League final. Fail to do so and be destined to be  remembered as an also-ran, or worse, a failure, as a  Madrid coach. Self-confessed philosophical latter words from the Portuguese himself. For, that would leave him with just one league and one Copa del Rey titles (make that two Copas if they win this year's) to boast during his short tenure at Madrid. Very far from the ambitious cries of European glory that characterized his appointment a few years ago.

The European Cup is not short of great comebacks from the men in white. In the late 80's, it seemed inevitable they would make the difference at the Bernabeu after a heavy defeat on their travels;Anderlecht, Inter, Moenchengladbach have painful memories of these reversals. This would be the inspiration for the Los Blancos for tonight's game. Can they also do it? I don't think so. For every goal Madrid is bound to score, Dortmund can respond with one as well. They scored 2 on their last visit during the preliminary stages. This is a team that is mentally strong enough to withstand the apprehension of stepping into the cauldron of the Bernabeu. Their unorthodox manager Klopp will have readied them for that.

Real will depend on Ronaldo as usual. Much will depend on his disposition for the game as he's officially nursing a thigh injury. I have hardly any doubt Madrid will score; I actually think they can get 2 or possibly 3. But Dortmund will have their chances to score as well. My intuition of an all-German final before the start of the semis looks good; unless the referee has some other devious plan in mind, Dortmund should go through and the odds currently on offer are an absolute bargain.

In the other semi-final, I mentioned before that Barcelona have no chance of going through against the Bayern machine. Even with a Messi at 100%.

To qualify: Borussia Dortmund

Dortmund to make case for German final

Bayern did it as expected yesterday, and there is no way back in this tie for Barcelona. It's true a couple of the goals were suspect, particularly the Robben one which should have been disallowed, but Bayern were truly the better team by far. This is the end of the Barcelona dominating team as we know it.

My view that it can very well be an all-German UCL final stands, and Dortmund can pile more Spanish misery tonight against Real. How the sudden Gotze announcement will affect the team remains to be seen. Dortmund have a crazy manager in Klopp, a brilliant manager he is as well. I don't think Mourinho had any chance of playing mind games with Klopp which is why the Portuguese has stayed pretty numb in the rundown to tonight's encounter. It sometimes takes a crazy personality to outdo another one and that's what Klopp has done to Mourinho! Anyway, on the pitch, it will be 2 evenly teams needing to take their scoring chances to make it through.

Dortmund have unbelievable talent in Reus, Gotze and Lewandowski. No doubt that they won the Bundesliga twice in a row when Kagawa was there as well. They are potent but they have to be less profligate at goal like against the first-leg in Malaga where they wasted a ton of first-rate opportunities to score. Their strike force can un-lock the suspect Madrid defence, for sure.

Real Madrid have Ronaldo, and that gives them a winning chance in any match. Limit him and Borussia will have a great chance. I think Real will look for the away goal and try to park the bus in this match, in order to make the difference at the Bernabeu. Counter-attacking is their forte and look set to be their modus operandi.

I think it's worth going with Dortmund as a draw-no-bet here. They beat Real in the preliminary stage by the minimum score, although the conditions were different at the time. Real showed vulnerability in their last 2 travels; at Old Trafford where they needed a helping hand from the referee to go through, and at Galatasaray where they were outplayed by an arguably modest Turkish side. Dortmund looks to make a statement tonight and advance the cause of Bundesliga power in Europe.

Draw-no-bet: Borussia Dortmund

Bayern to overwhelm Barcelona

Nice pay-day on Monday; I've been mentioning on these pages since January to pile on Man Utd for Premier League glory and they made it official after thumping Aston Villa. Nice outcome one month before the season actually ends! Whatever is said about the quality of this team with respect to its predecessors, I think this team has the potential to get even better next year and no doubt that winning the Champions League will be seriously on their agenda. But this talk is for next season.

Talking of UCL, Tuesday sees Bayern Munich host Barcelona for the first semi-final, arguably these 2 teams being the best in the world at the moment. My thoughts on the UCL at this stage is very much against popular thought at this stage; I think one of the Germans teams will win it and it could very well be an all-German final. The market obviously thinks otherwise and sees either of the Spanish giants winning it and favo urs an all-Spanish final.

Bayern Munich have won the Bundesliga in an unprecedented canter. They have been dominating  in both the domestic league or in Europe, even though they can show the occasional blip like in the return leg against Arsenal at the elimination stage. This team is possibly the best organized of the remaining four and strong in all departments. This team is strong mentally as well with the likes of Schweinsteiger, Robben, Lahm, Ribery and Gomez in their prime. The only thing that they lack against Barcelona is a Messi/Ronaldo-type player that can change a game at will. The arrival of Gotze, by the way, next year, will only reinforce this team.

I subscribe to the growing belief that Barcelona are past their prime; they are still one of the best, if not still the best, teams out there, but it's tough to see them improve on what they've already achieved. This year, they've shown that they are hugely dependent on Messi and if the Argentinian is not on song, they can be in a lot of trouble. That spells trouble against Bayern, particularly that Messi has just come back from injury and will not be at his utmost best against the Bavarians.

Bayern look strongly favoured for this encounter, based on the form of the two teams in the past few weeks. The Germans' best hope of going through is to make the difference at home, with full knowledge that the Spaniards have shown great vulnerability on a few of their travels. If they can limit a Messi who's bound to be not at his best, they must have a great chance of winning this first leg.

Bayern is a safe draw-no-bet. At current odds, for a riskier venture but greater return, I would be inclined to go straight for the Bayern win. I think Barcelona are in for a difficult night at the Olympic stadium.

Win: Bayern Munich
Draw-no-bet: Bayern Munich

Easy path for Real Madrid

I've read several reports of Galatasaray having a chance of causing an upset tonight against Real Madrid; I just cannot see it happening. I don't even think that the Turkish team is comparable in any way, shape or form to the Spanish giants. Sure they have Drogba and Sneijder. They have a good manager. But it's a huge stretch to think that they can go win at the Bernabeu. It's a longshot to think that they can go through to the next round. I don't think any of this will happen. The Turks barely scraped through Shalke in the last round and that does not bode well facing possibly the second best team in the world. They might score against Real Madrid tonight but there's every reason they will be outscored in the process. Real Madrid should win tonight.

The other game between Malaga and Dortmund looks more even-handed; the Spaniards have to try to make the difference at home if they are to overcome their formidable opponents over 2 legs. Dortmund is a difficult beast to play against, whether on the road or at home. Having already surrendered the Bundesliga title to Bayern, the Germans will put all their effort in the UCL and must be favourites to go through. I think tonight will be a very tight affair and it will not be surprising if this game is decided with 1 goal difference or in a draw. Sitting the fence on this one.

Win: Real Madrid

UCL Quarters

The UCL quarters start today with 2 mouth-watering clashes between PSG and Barcelona, and Bayern against Juventus.

PSG v/s Barcelona. PSG will soon become a European heavy-weight behind the backing of Qatar's coffers. They are a team in the making and are not yet up to the likes of Barcelona.They look set to win the French Ligue 1 and have done well to reach this stage of the UCL. But the buck should stop here. Their main weapon is Ibrahimovic and Barcelona will put their focus to shut him down and hence subdue the Parisians' premier goalscoring threat. I believe they should do so and let Messi and co dictate things at the other end of the pitch. Barcelona are not invincible and will be keen not to repeat their nightmare of San Siro a few weeks back where they surrendered 2 goals. The return of manager Tito Villanova behind the bench will no doubt strengthen the team and I advise them as a solid draw-no-bet.

Bayern is crushing the Bundesliga but Juventus will be as strong a team as they will face all season. The Italians will certainly try to squeeze at least a goal on this trip so that they can make the difference back home. This looks to be the tightest match-up of the quarter-finals and on quality, the Germans have the edge only marginally. They will be looking to make a strong statement at home and I see them as a strong draw-no-bet as well.

Draw-no-bet: Barcelona, Bayern Munich

European football preview

The directive that started months ago to keep on piling on Man Utd for the league continues un-abated this week-end as they stand a great chance of further widening the gap at the top. They will most certainly beat a manager-less Reading while City are not sure to come un-scathed from their visit to Everton. Here are my week-end picks.

Man Utd v/s Reading. No contest there, goals should be aplenty with the strikers in red looking for a field day. Van Persie has been quiet of late, so this is an ideal platform for him to bang them in. Easy Win selection for the hosts.

Aston Villa v/s QPR. A 6-pointer between 2 teams fighting relegation. Villa are better than their current position suggests and will be keen to add an important 3 points to their tally. QPR have won 2 games in a row, which must have buoyed them greatly in their bid to secure what seemed an unlikely survival in the top flight just a few weeks ago. This game can really go either way and I feel the game will be decided on a decisive action on either side. Better sit and watch this one.

Everton v/s Man City. The visitors will be missing captain Kompany and striker Aguero. Everton were shocked at home to Wigan in the FA Cup last week and manager Moyes will be keen to right the ship, to keep their faint hopes for a Top 4 finish alive. Everton have a good record at home and I believe they will seriously test the Citizens. I fancy them with a +1 goal handicap.

Southampton v/s Liverpool. The Kops are the team form of the moment with striker Suarez in sparkling form. The hosts are far from easy meat at home where they've beaten top teams and even Man Utd needed late goals from Van Persie to secure a win over there. The Saints are not safe from relegation yet and they will rely every bit on striker Lambert to cause havoc at the other end. I like Southampton with a +1 goal advance here as well.

Sunderland v/s Norwich. I would be very surprised if the hosts were to lose this one. That's 3 points for them to take and a draw-no-bet on Sunderland looks to be the value punt of the week-end.

Wigan v/s Newcastle. Again here, I cannot see the visitors winning this. They had a hard Thursday game against Anzhi, which they won well at the death. Wigan can certainly win this one, although there's also value going draw-no-bet with them for a safer outcome.

In La Liga, I see wins for Real Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia. Real Sociedad is a draw-no-bet selection at home to Vallaloid.

In Germany, Dortmund should win at home to Freiburg. Bayern Munich are a draw-no-bet selection on their away trip to Leverkusen.

Win: Man Utd, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Dortmund
+1 Goal: Everton, Southampton
Draw-no-bet: Sunderland, Wigan, Real Sociedad, Bayern Munich

Week-end football

For this week-end's fixtures, I do not anticipate as many drawn matches as last week although there is no doubt that there are some favoured teams that will be made to work to get the full points. Here are some selections.

Liverpool v/s Norwich. The Reds got themselves a good striker in Sturridge from Chelsea. He can be lethal when full of confidence and he will have gotten some of that after scoring on his debut at Old Trafford. Norwich are a well-organized team that plays good counter-attacking football. If the score is still level late on, they might see themselves snatching a winning goal to steal the points. They have lost 4 of their last 5 league games, so it seems stretching to see the Canaries winning this all out. I would go for Liverpool as a draw-no-bet.

Man City v/s Fulham. Straight win for the hosts here. They should win this with their B team. They have lost the Toure brothers to the African Nations Cup but this should not matter against Fulham. Man City is a win selection.

Newcastle v/s Reading. I will give the Magpies home advantage here. They are on a poor run but have shown signs of regaining some form and confidence lately. There is no doubt that they are weaker force without Demba Ba, but his departure will give the likes of Cisse and Amoebi to shine. Reading are very vulnerable on the road and it's thus hard to warm to their chances. Newcastle is a draw-no-bet.

Swansea v/s Stoke. It is hard to find someone with a more nightmarish games than Stoke's Walters last week. Two own goals and one penalty miss against Chelsea that led to a 0-4 drubbing at home. It must be said that Tony Pulis' team is showing a very patchy form in the past few games. Swansea will rely on the exploits of Michu to do the damage again. The Spaniard is the find of the season and will be keen to add to this impressive goal tally against the stumbling visitors. This could go either way and I believe it will be decided by a goal, so I'll sit on the fence on this one.

West Brom v/s Villa. Got to go with the home team here even though I have been wrong on my last 2 selections regarding them. I side with them here because they are facing a Villa team in crisis. The Villains have the most terrible record of the past 6 weeks, leaking goals in abundance. West Brom are not in the best of shapes either having lost their last 3 league games. This is a great chance for them to start a winning sequence and they are a draw-no-bet selection.

In Spain, I like Malaga and Atletico Madrid as Wins at home to Celta Vigo and Levante respectively.

In Germany, Bayern Munich should easily win its home game against Greuther.

In Italy, AC Milan looks a safe draw-no-bet against Bologna.


Win: Man City, Malaga, Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich
Draw-no-bet: Liverpool, Newcastle, West Brom, AC Milan

Week-end football

Arsenal won their UCL game and qualified as expected.

Here's to hoping for a good week-end of selections to make up for last week's disappointments. My thoughts on a few of them.

Man Utd v/s QPR. Straight win for the hosts here, who will be keen to work on their goal difference against the league's worst team. Even if Sir Alex Ferguson's statue unveiling could somewhat put some distraction on his players, they should be too good for the manager-less visitors.

Everton v/s Norwich. The hosts will be without inspirational Fellaini. Norwich will come buzzing from their defeat of Man Utd last week. I like Everton's form at home and have them as a draw-no-bet.

Stoke v/s Fulham. I like Stoke as a draw-no-bet here. They have good form at home and Fulham are experiencing a torrid time in defence. The visitors can score but are leaking in abundance too.

Southampton v/s Newcastle. Southampton will be keen to have a go against the struggling Magpies. The latter will be welcoming back their powerful midfielder Tiote but will still be missing a few key players owing to injuries and suspensions. The Saints will need to take any chance they get to get a result, and I believe it is worth siding with them as a draw-no-bet.

AC Milan v/s Juventus. Both played and won in mid-week. Milan is just a poor team this year and it is surprising that they are still with coach Allegri. I think they are up for a rude opposition in arch-rivals Juventus and I like the visitors' current draw-no-bet odds, so that's the selection.

In Spain, I like Real Madrid's chances for the win as they visit a struggling Real Betis side. Christiano Ronaldo can make light up the score sheet again there.

Atletico Madrid host Sevilla and I like the hosts' chances as a draw-no-bet.

In the Bundesliga, Bayern Munich should overcome Hannover at the Olympic stadium just like PSG should resume winning ways against Troyes in Ligue 1.

Win: Man Utd, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, PSG
Draw-no-bet: Everton, Stoke, Southampton, Juventus, Atletico Madrid

Football preview

Had a good round last week-end with 8 correct selections out of 10. As usual, I stayed away from the mid-week international friendlies which I believe are a waste of time punt-wise.  Zlatan Ibrahimovic's 4th goal against England was however, worth a look and is one for the ages.

The greatest goal I have seen (just my opinion) is Negrete's bicycle kick, outside the box, in World Cup 86 in the match between Mexico and Bulgaria. Zlatan's overhead kick was also outside the box, actually further from goal, at a full 30 yards. Whether he's a choker in big games or not, no one can doubt that the Swede can score wonder goals; recall the brushed side-heel one he scored against Italy in the 2004 European Championship.

Back to League football where Chelsea and Man City are huffing and puffing at the moment and Man Utd have seized the opportunity to comfortably shoot up at the top of the EPL in recent weeks. Here are my thoughts on this week-end's round of matches.

Arsenal v/s Tottenham. The hosts are beset by injuries and uneven form, so they might be upset here. Much of their chances will reside on whether Walcott can play or not. Tottenham will certainly be giving them all they can handle. This Derby looks set to result in a lot of goals, and I will go with a safe selection of Tottenham with a +1 goal handicap.

Liverpool v/s Wigan. Much depends on what type of Wigan shows up. They were disappointing in losing at home to WBA last week-end. Suarez is on fire for Liverpool but it remains to be seen how long more he can shoulder the goal scoring responsibilities for the club. The result of this match can go either way.

Man City v/s Villa. Got to go with the hosts here, even though they are struggling mightily. European Cup failure, I believe, is weighing heavily on the players' and manager's minds. I have changed my mind about this Villa team; under Lambert, they have become a decent and much better side than under the McLeish regime. Benteke can cause problems for the City defence. Still at the end, I cannot see the Villains taking the 3 points, and I see City as a safe draw-no-bet selection.

Newcastle v/s Swansea. Newcastle came up with a nugget at home to West Ham last week-end and it would be surprising if they suffered 2 successive home defeats, even though they will be missing some key players in Cabaye, Coloccini and potentially striker Cisse. I will trust them with a draw-no-bet against a Swansea team that have a few injury issues of their own. if fully-fit, Demba Ba could be set to end his goal drought of the past couple of games.

QPR v/s Southampton. QPR will not have as good an occasion to aim for 3 points here than against lowly Southampton. If they are to survive the relegation battle, this is a must win for them. They are getting a few key players back and should enjoy a better remaining part of the campaign. Southampton are struggling on the road and will be equally keen to capitalize on any chances Rangers will provide them. I give QPR home advantage here and have the hosts as a draw-no-bet.

Reading v/s Everton. This could very well be yet another win for Everton. They have been impressive since the start of the season, and are led by an inspiring Fellaini. Reading will have to come up with their A-game and their usually-flaky defence will be put to the test against the powerful Toffees. Everton is another draw-no-bet selection.

West Brom v/s Chelsea. The Baggies showed they were a good force to reckon with at home when they went toe-to-toe with Man City a few weeks ago, albeit with one extra man. Chelsea will have to be at their best to get the win. This match can go either way, so I'll sit on the fence on this one.

Norwich v/s Man Utd. Last year, the Red Devils were somewhat lucky to snatch victory with the game's last kick through the ever-green Ryan Giggs. I think they will re-iterate this year with another win. Van Persie, Chicharito are on fire and even though Rooney might miss the call, they are sufficiently potent in attack to make the difference. The visitors are a win selection.

Fulham v/s Sunderland. This is the game where Sunderland could spring a shock. They nearly did it at Goodison Park last week and it would not be a stretch to think that they can go and beat a Fulham team that is leaking goals in abundance in their last matches. Sunderland with a +1 handicap is the value bet of the week-end.

West Ham v/s Stoke. Stoke like parking the bus on the road; West Ham have good form at home. This could very well end up in a draw. I'll abstain on this one.

In the rest of Europe, I see wins for Inter, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Dortmund, Bayern and PSG.

Win: Man Utd, Inter, Real, Barcelona, Valencia, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, PSG
Draw-no-bet: Man City, Newcastle, QPR, Everton,
Handicap +1: Tottenham, Sunderland

Week-end football

Wednesday's results went as expected except for Barcelona who got dinged at Celtic. It must have been written somewhere that Celtic would come out on top on their 125th anniversary, though they were outplayed in every statistical department of the game.

The week-end games coming up look tricky and here are my thoughts.

Arsenal v/s Fulham. This is a game pitting 2 teams with very good attacks but poor defence. So there could be potentially lots of goals in this match. The pressure seems to be mounting on a weekly basis on Arsene Wenger; there does not seem much light at the end of the tunnel for the Gunners fans as far as garnering trophies after some many years of wait. Each defeat, like last week's at Old Trafford, stokes the fires of reported unrest and dissent throughout the club hierarchy by the media as regards Wenger's failing policy for the club. But Arsenal have home advantage here against a Fulham team that seems to be puffing of late. Arsenal is a draw-no-bet recommendation.

Everton v/s Sunderland. Will Sunderland finally score a goal? They might very well do it, but then it sounds hard to believe that Everton will not score a few themselves. I believe Martin O'Neil will get things sorted out for the Black Cats but going to win at Goodison Park seems too much of a tall order given their current form. The odds are that Everton will win this, or get a point from this game at the very least. The hosts are a safe draw-no-bet.

Reading v/s Norwich. There isn't much difference between these 2 teams; they will both be fighting relegation and will be keen to get 3 full points here. Can go either way.

Southampton v/s Swansea. Same as above game. Both teams are capable of the best and worst.

Stoke v/s QPR.Stoke is my value win of the week-end. Obviously, they are always good at home, and QPR looks like a team in real distress. How much longer owner Fernandes will keeping voicing his unconditional support to Mark Hughes will be interesting. It's not entirely the manager's fault. They've been hit by a slew of injuries that is the main source of their woes. Stoke for the win, is the selection.

Wigan v/s West Brom. Two teams in good form, and there's really little to choose between the two. I expect a tight game and will side with the Latics because of their home advantage. Wigan is a draw-no-bet selection.

Aston Villa v/s Man Utd. I expect the Villains to give Man Utd a tough game. They are doing well under Lambert and have put together a good string of matches lately. Man Utd always seem to find it hard when facing mid-table Premiership sides after Champions League football. This is possibly because the style of play is so different. It would be no surprise if Man Utd won this late, but it wouldn't be a surprise either if they hit an off-day and get undone by the hosts. The result can go either way.

Man City v/s Tottenham. It is clear that Man City have yet to hit any kind of top form that they displayed for much of last season. They are struggling to get results going their way either in the league or in the European Cup. Tottenham won't be an easy game for them; the Londoners should have won last year's fixture only to be beaten on a last-gap penalty. Both teams played in mid-week, so there will be fitness issues on both sides. There is no certainty in the result.

Newcastle v/s West Ham. Both teams have injury concerns going into the game. The hosts will be without their lynchpins Tiote and Coloccini, while the Hammers seem to be left with only one fit central defender. I expect the potent Tyneside team to take full advantage of the visitors' depleted defence. Newcastle is a Win selection.

Chelsea v/s Liverpool. Both teams played in mid-week, against Russian teams; Chelsea were lucky to win against a very good Shakhtar Donesk. Liverpool played their second team in a loss to Anzhi. The concern with Chelsea is their defence has been very porous with the absence of Terry. The absence of Ashley Cole looks set to add to their defensive woes. Liverpool have gathered a few positive results lately and their main problem seems to be their lack of realism in front of goal. Suarez is certainly missing an able partner up there. This could very well end up in a draw, but I'm just going to avoid having a punt on the game.

Over Europe, I see wins for Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich, Ajax, PSV Eidhoven and Porto.

Win: Newcastle, Stoke, Athletico Madrid, Bayern, Ajax, PSV, Porto
Draw-no-bet: Arsenal, Everton, Wigan

UCL Round 2

Real Madrid and Man City drew their games; while it was an OK result for the Spanish team, it means that the Citizens are virtually out of the Champions League. How they were not awarded the penalty at the death is mind-boggling. Like everyone, the ref saw the infringement and shirt-pulling on Ballotelli, yet found it more appropriate to blow for full-time. Why have allowed the preceding free-kick to take place, in the first place? Mancini's anger toward the officials is understandable here; the poor decision robs them of an almost-guaranteed victory, and any hope of qualification to the next round.

For tonight's games, I see wins for Bayern Munich, Chelsea, and Barcelona. Valencia and Juventus look safe draw-no-bet selections as well.

Win: Bayern, Chelsea, Barcelona.
Draw-no-bet: Valencia, Juventus

Football preview

Breeders Cup aside, there is still a good round of European football going on this week-end and here are my thoughts on a few of the games.

Man Utd v/s Arsenal. It's the big one. Last year, Arsenal with Van Persie were demolished 8-2, and although I do not anticipate a similar scoreline, it's hard to go against the hosts here. They have RVP and Rooney who are gelling by the day and will cause serious problems to the Gunners average defence. Man Utd are feeble at the back as well and Arsenal will be keen to make the most of any scoring chance they will get. Still, Man Utd should prevail in this one, or at worst get only a point. They are easily a draw-no-bet selection.

Fulham v/s Everton. Fulham are a very strong force at home but Everton are no slouch either on the road. The Toffees have started the season brightly and can cause problems to any team in the league. They were arguably lucky not to have lost their last derby game against Liverpool after the Kops had a goal wrongfully disallowed for offside. However, they showed they had spirit and combative power by levelling the score after being 2 goals down. Fulham came out of a thrilling 3-3 away tie at Reading in their last match, showing their retained firepower despite the loss of Dempsey and Dembele. If they can keep away from the kind of defensive mistakes of that match, they should either win or draw against Everton. Fulham is a draw-no-bet selection as well.

Norwich v/s Stoke. This could very end up goal-less like many of Stoke's matches. The result can really go either way.

Sunderland v/s Villa. Sunderland is being a big disappointment at the moment. They couldn't even beat Middlesbrough in the Carling Cup despite fielding a rather strong side. They just can't score. At current odds, it might be worth taking a punt on them finally waking up against a Villa team that is nothing out of the ordinary. Sunderland is a value draw-no-bet, with some risk involved.

Swansea v/s Chelsea. I cannot see Chelsea lose that one. Their last 2 games against Man Utd have been full of drama and controversy and they will be keen to resume to normal business by overcoming a struggling Swansea team. Since both teams have played and won during the week, I don't anticipate any fitness advantage on either side. Class should tell at the end and I see a Chelsea win.

Tottenham v/s Wigan. Every year, Spurs land a nugget at home and this year, it could be tomorrow's game against the Latics. The latter are a better team than their table position suggests, and they will give Spurs a lot to handle on the counter-attack. I will abstain from a prediction but long punters might see value in a Wigan draw-no-bet here.

West Ham v/s Man City. The result of this match all depends on what kind of City will show up. Their form has been very sketchy of late and they seem to have trouble getting out of their funk. Champions League football is like a Damocles sword hanging upon them. This match can go either way.

QPR v/s Reading. QPR is the value punt of the week-end. I cannot see them lose this game, particularly against a Reading team that must be demoralized after their Carling Cup exit in mid-week, after having been 4 goals up! It looks safe to have QPR as a draw-no-bet, but I think it might be worth going for their outright win here.

Liverpool v/s Newcastle. Two teams with inconsistent form. This can go either way.

In Spain, I see straight wins for Barcelona and Real Madrid. Nothing new there. Add Malaga to the winning list as well.

In Germany, Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich look safe draw-no-bets.

Win: QPR, Chelsea, Barcelona, Real Madrid
Draw-no-bet: Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Sunderland, Fulham, Man Utd

Week-end preview

Here's my predictions for this week-end's round of football matches.

Arsenal v/s QPR. The Gunners are on a 2-game slump in which they have failed to score. Van Persie is being sorely missed. Truth is, they are also missing Walcott and Ox-Chamberlain through injury. A third defeat on the trot will really put pressure on Arsene Wenger. QPR managed to gain a point against Everton last week-end and will be keen to build on that positive result to finally land their first win of the season. I doubt it will happen at the Emirates though. Arsenal should get at least a point from this encounter, and it might be worth going with them for the straight win.

Aston Villa v/s Norwich. Two bad teams capable of the best and worst. Can go either way.

Reading v/s Fulham. I like Fulham as a draw-no-bet here. Martin Jol has a fully-fit squad at his disposal and I see Rodallega and Berbatov able to exploit the weaknesses of the leaky Reading defence.

Stoke v/s Sunderland. This looks to be a low-scoring affair. Stoke are very good at home while Sunderland are being a little bit of a disappointment at the moment. I was expecting Martin O'Neil's men to be higher up the table but for some reason, they are really struggling as a unit. They rode their luck to snatch a draw against Newcastle last week-end. It wouldn't surprise me if Sunderland stole the points here but Stoke definitely hold home advantage.

Wigan v/s West Ham. I believe the hosts are one the value draw-no-bets of the week-end. They have been arguably unlucky recently with points lost at Swansea where they had a controversial tying goal disalloweed, and against Everton where they conceded late after leading twice. So they are clearly knocking at the door, and they will be keen to gain full points against a West Ham team that has exposed form on their travels. Wigan as draw-no-bet is the recommendation.

Man City v/s Swansea. For all their European troubles, Man City are a serious team in the EPL and they will be keen to make amends of their mid-week failures by gunning down Swansea. A straight win for the hosts.

Everton v/s Liverpool. I cannot see Liverpool winning this. Sure, they beat Anzhi in mid-week and have kept a clean sheet for the past 3 games. In fact, I think they will be feeling the effects of their mid-week win since Rogers fielded his first-team. Everton are as good a team this year as they've ever been under Moyes. They already beat Man Utd at home and are playing with full confidence at the moment. They could easily win this game and look safe as a draw-no-bet.

Newcastle v/s West Brom. Expect Ba to score here. He's been off the score sheet for the past few games and he will be keen to exploit a West Brom defence that gives away a lot of shots per game. The Magpies played and won in mid-week with their B team, so they should go all guns blazing against the visitors. A home win is the selection.

Southampton v/s Tottenham. This can go either way as both teams have showed no consistent form whatsoever so far, so will abstain from trying to pick the result.

Chelsea v/s Man Utd. The big one. A 6-point decider really. Chelsea have home advantage and will be keen to pick apart the mediocre Utd defence. They leak badly and Hazard and Mata will certainly be relishing the occasion. Tactically, Chelsea have a great coach in Di Matteo, who understands what it takes to get a result.Ask Barcelona. Man Utd will rely on their strong attacking unit to bail them out again. Rooney and Van Persie will also look to exploit holes in the Chelsea defence that will miss John Terry. This game could very well end up in a draw. If a team were to win it, I think it would be Chelsea, but that's far from a certainty, so I'll abstain here too.

In Germany, I see a win for Bayern Munich. In Spain, I think Barcelona will suffer at Rayo but it's impossible to go against the mighty Catalans unless you're a long punter. Real Madrid are facing a mini-injury crisis at the moment but should be deep enough to garner at least a point during their visit to Mallorca.

Win: Arsenal, Man City, Newcastle, Bayern Munich
Draw-no-bet: Wigan, Everton, Real Madrid

Delivery time

Great last week-end with the Lockinge and Preakness delivering the 1-2 punch as expected.

What else to say about Frankel that hasn't yet been said? He's not as imposing as Sea The Stars but his mechanics are just unbelievable. In full flight, he's an unstoppable machine in motion. At this point, there seems nothing to stop him in the Prince of Wales stakes at Ascot, possibly his next stop. Excelebration ran the race expected of him but again had to settle for second place. Unfortunately for him, it looks like there are more runner-up spots in the offing for him each time he locks horns with the Galileo colt.

State-side, I'll Have Another outran Bodemeister in the final strides to complete the Derby-Preakness double, opening the possibility of achieving the Triple Crown. Can he do it? It's a little early to say but I believe much of it will depend on the disposition of Dullahan and Union Rags. Both horses will be fresher for the Belmont showpiece as they skipped Pimlico. The Triple Crown is far from a certainty for I'll Have Another, but he's proved to have lots of ability, and certainly is among the best of his generation.

In football, Chelsea finally won the Champions League after coming close in recent years. Their success had looked so improbable in their encounters with Barcelona and in the final against Bayern, but it seems that it was written somewhere that they would win it. Di Matteo showed all his savviness and when you look at his short managerial career, he's never really showed he was a bad manager. He did well at West Brom and looked unlucky to be sacked there. Whether he stays at the helm of Chelsea of not, he looks destined to be wanted by other top clubs in Europe.

Coming up over the week-end are the Irish Guineas Classics and both colts and fillies races look competitive. With Camelot certain to step up in trip from now on, this year's 3-year old top miler could be making a statement at the Curragh. It will be interesting to see if the returning Parish Hall can confirm all the promise of last season, or if one of the flops at the Newmarket Classic, such as Born To Sea and Power, can redeem himself and take a leading role in the division. There certainly will be no more room for excuses and ability or non-ability will be there for all to see.