Royal Ascot 2019 - Day 5

Godolphin, or more precisely Charlie Appleby, hold a strong hand on the last day at Ascot.

Pinatubo and Space Blues are among the market leaders in the first 2 races and it seems they will battle it out with the Ballydoyle contingent for the win. Blue Point has an outstanding chance of doing a 'Choisir' and be a dual winner of the Royal meeting but the main question is whether 4 days rest is enough for him.

Masar is an intriguing favourite in the Hardwicke Stakes. The Derby winner is making his seasonal return after over a year on the sidelines and the vibes from the connections could not be more positive. It is however certain that the son of New Approach will not be at the peak of his powers and will need the run. His class might be enough to get him through but there are a few others that might give him a race.

Defoe was the surprise winner of the Coronation Cup. The son of Dalakhani looked to have lost his way over the past year but seemed to have regained his form when winning convincingly at Epsom on Derby day. If he reproduces that form, he can be considered a major player.

Salouen can be a danger if the ground stays soft but his chances will evaporate as it gets drier.

Lah Ti Dar was a major disappointment in the Coronation Cup as I expected her to be among the main protagonists. The connections believe she did not like the cambers of Epsom. If that is the case, then she might be ripe for redemption at Ascot. There is still a doubt though about her; maybe she is not as good as what she let transpired early in her career.

Mirage Dancer is the dark horse of the race and without a doubt the best-bred as well. There cannot be many pedigrees beating the blood of Frankel and Heat Haze in the stud book! He comfortably won at the distance in his seasonal return and seems to be on an upward curve. Trainer Michael Stoute is a master at getting these older horses right and quite interestingly won the race last year with Crystal Ocean.

Lastly, Southern Image seems to be well backed on the basis of his last race where he went toe to toe with Stradivarius. I feel the 12 furlong distance might be somewhat too sharp for him.

If Masar comes out firing on most cylinders, he very well could win this. I see him petering out in the last furlong or so. At current odds, there might be value taking confidence in Mirage Dancer as an each-way prospect.

Each-way: Mirage Dancer

Week-end football, Superbowl

It is always the case that the matches following the end of the transfer window spring their cans of surprises because teams have reinforced or weakened during the flurry of activities that characterize the end of transfer proceedings. In addition, new players that are propelled straight into the first team have to gel immediately; so while it will be interesting to see how the forms of all the teams have been affected, caution is the word for the first batch of matches this week-end.

I cannot see Man Utd losing at Fulham. For one, the hosts will be without their main goal scorer Berbatov, while the Red Devils have all their major weapons, bar Ashley Young, at their disposal. The confident selection is Man Utd as a win.

West Brom look exposed against Tottenham. Striker Odemwingie threw a fit and tried to force a vain transfer to QPR on the last transfer day. Talk about morale hit to the team. Spurs were forced to dig deep last week to earn a point at Norwich and will be better served with a seemingly fully-fit Defoe. I see value backing the visitors as a draw-no-bet on this one.

In La Liga, I like Barcelona on their road trip to Valencia. The team is in excellent form and should have trounced Real Madrid in the first leg of the Spanish Cup on Wednesday. They only put one past the Los Blancos although they had clear chances to put the match and tie away. Messi did not score but brave would be the one to oppose him again against Valencia. The hosts are possibly the third best team in La Liga but there is a gulf between them and the Blaugrana. Barcelona is a straight win selection.

Malaga should win at home to Zaragoza. Real Madrid should either win or draw at Granada, and I see Rayo Vallecano as the value bet in La Liga with a +1 goal handicap as they visit Sevilla.

Finally, it's the Super Bowl on Sunday. The San Francisco 49ers are short favourites but I have a feeling the Baltimore Ravens will win this. They are the better balanced team and their quarterback Joe Flacco has the ability to unlock the sometimes unorganized 49er defence. I am no American football expert, but from what I've seen, and I could be wrong, I will speculate and believe going with the Ravens is definitely worth a small crack at the current odds.


Win: Man Utd, Barcelona, Malaga
Draw-no-bet: Tottenham, Real Madrid
+1 Handicap: Rayo Vallecano

Red Devils to win the title

Three of the four Tuesday's games turned out draws, hope it turned into a nice payout for those that fancied it as well. Villa lost at home, which turned out to be a wrong selection.

I believe it is worth starting to take a position on Man Utd to win the league this year. I just cannot see them blowing it away again this year. Their main rivals for the title will again be Man City and the Citizens don't look to have the hunger to keep the trophy this year. Yesterday's goalless draw at QPR was good enough proof that this is a team that, although still formidable, is not incisive or sharp enough to win important games when they matter. Something is broken in this team; Silva cannot do everything on his own, they are missing Yaya Toure to run the midfield; Aguero and Tevez are shadows of their old selves. The team is simply not clicking and I don't think that booting away Ballotelli to Milan will cure their problems.

I still believe that Man Utd are a step behind their past teams of the treble year or of the Christiano Ronaldo years. But they are good enough to last all the way to the title. Their manager will guide them to it through sheer will. Sure, their defence is dismal but their attack is so good that they can outscore Premier League opponents at will. Last but not least, they already have a 4-point cushion with tonight's game in hand; given that they are best during the second half of the season, there's every reason to believe this gap will increase.

I firmly believe that Man Utd will win the league this year, so it's a case of accumulating position week-in, week-out, even when they lose points. They inevitably will drop points along the way, just like the rest, but the value lies in keeping the confidence and getting in as their odds go up after such off-days and nights.

For tonight's games, I like Arsenal at home to Liverpool. I think Arsenal will get better as the season goes along and they should have too much class for the Kops. Arsenal is a draw-no-bet selection.

I see Tottenham as good value as draw-no-bet at Norwich. The Canaries are struggling at the moment and Spurs will be welcoming the return of talismanic striker Defoe. Villa-Boas has surprised me with some good results since the start of the season and I expect them to win or draw at Norwich.


Draw-no-bet: Arsenal, Tottenham

EPL Wednesday

Aston Villa obliged with the win, albeit with a late goal from Benteke. Here are my views on some of today's matches.

Stoke v/s Newcastle. Difficult to go with the Magpies here with their recent poor run. They will get central defender Collocini back but will still be missing their creative midfielders Ben Arfa and Cabaye, the latter gone for a long time. I see Stoke either winning or drawing this, so a draw-no-bet on the hosts is the recommendation.

Tottenham v/s Liverpool. The Kops have enjoyed some good results of late, led by the sparkling form of Suarez. I think however that they will be found wanting against a strong opponent like Tottenham. Bale, Lennon and particularly Defoe look set to pick holes in this rather exposed Liverpool defense. I like Spurs as a draw-no-bet as well.

Man Utd v/s West Ham. The hosts will be disappointed if they can't get full points here. Hammers' manager Allardyce used to have a good record against Fergie's teams but that was in the early part of the past decade. This current Man Utd team seems to make things difficult for itself by going behind and relying on its potent strike force to storm back. There is no doubt that their Achilles heel is their porous defence. Van Persie has been quiet in the past couple of games and this could be his wake-up game. Man Utd for the win is the selection.

Wigan v/s Man City. Wigan is beset by injuries at the moment and Man City will not find a better time to play the Latics. Obviously, City is still huffing and puffing at the moment but they have too much depth in the squad to be upset here. Man City looks a safe draw-no-bet.

Win: Man Utd
Draw-no-bet: Stoke, Tottenham, Man City

Southwell Tuesday

A very quiet by normal standards, but a winning one with Real and Barcelona both winning. Dubawi Cheetah was scratched and did not run.

It was Manchester 2 London 0 in the match-up of the top teams in the Premier League. Man City were lucky to get the 3 points with a last-gap penalty kick taken by Balotelli. The result could so easily have swung in Tottenham's favour had Defoe not missed a gaping open goal minutes before City's game winner. These 3 points could prove decisive in the end, no doubt.

Man Utd played like champions in winning at the Emirates Stadium. They certainly won't give up the title fight until the end and man-handled Arsenal for a deserved win. The after-match talk was all about the controversial substitution of Arsenal's arguably best player on the pitch Alex Chamberlain after their goal. I agree with those that maintain that Wenger got it wrong (again) there. The young phenom was one of the few players able to cause some havoc in the Mancunian defence and should have continued the game if they were serious of getting the badly-needed 3 points out of the game. Just reading Wenger's post-match analysis would make an Arsenal fan want to cry; he felt they could have won the game comfortably in the second-half. I don't know which game he was looking at, but Man Utd should have easily buried a couple of goals on his Gunners; the visitors were by far the most menacing throughout the game.

In La Liga, Real and Barcelona won as expected and it was another no-event at the top. Ramblings of squad conflict at the Bernabeu are surfacing and it will be interesting if these unsettle the Los Blancos. At the present, Madrid are playing as good professionally as they can in La Liga and I cannot see any reason why they are not to be followed.

On Tuesday, back to racing where the 15:50 race at Southwell looks a good place for Moataz to strike again in the space of 3 days. The Mark Johnston stable is on fire and Moataz looks to be ahead of the handicapper in this average handicap. If the Elusive Quality gelding takes well to the fibresand surface, he should play a major role at the finish. I recommend him as an each-way punt.

Each-way: Moataz