Winners and Losers

Sunday brings the curtain down in the EPL with a champion still to be decided, the fate of one final relegated club to be determined, and third place ensuring next season Champions League football up for grabs. Some thoughts for the final day.

Man City will be champions. No shocker here. The Citizens are in full charge and I cannot see them being stopped at home to QPR. Man City are easily recommended as a Win here.

Man Utd will rue their final moments of madness against Everton a fortnight ago which will eventually cost them the title. They are going to Sunderland their heads low, and might not even get the 3 points at the Stadium of Light. A quick QPR goal at the Etihad might en-liven the Red Devils but I am not counting on it.

QPR will lose to Man City but in my opinion, won't be relegated. That's because I don't see Bolton going to win at Stoke City. It's true that the hosts have nothing to play for and are finishing the season with a whimper. Bolton could draw this game, but it's hard to see them grab the 3 full points they need to stay up. The Wanderers are going down on Sunday after some memorable years at the top.

Arsenal will grab third place for guaranteed next season UCL football. They need a win at West Brom and I think they will get it. Their main opponents for that coveted spot is Tottenham who also look set to win at home against Fulham. It's just that Harry Redknapp's men will regret having gone on a mad winless streak of late, that eventually will cost them third place. Arsenal and Tottenham are both recommended as draw-no-bets.

All these matches will surely provide drama on Sunday, and in the end, the winners and losers will agree that they got what they deserved from their season's work.

Win: Man City

Draw-no-bet: Arsenal, Tottenham

Quest for points

Real Madrid drew at Villareal in a game that ended infamously with 2 Madrid players sent off and Mourinho and one of his assistants kicked out from the touch-line. The Real brass is still complaining about the referee-ing this morning, without doubt in an attempt to get favours from the men in black in the remaining encounters.

Let's get at the week-end's La Liga matches right away then. No doubt that the 2 points lost at Villareal (4 points dropped in a space of a few days) by the Los Blancos has opened up the championship a little more. But they still have a 6-point cushion which is by no means a small margin. In other words, Real Madrid is still firmly in the driving seat. The visit of lowly Real Sociedad this week-end gives them a perfect opportunity to get back to winning ways and squash any talk of lack of form or confidence. They should win this game and I have little doubt they will. They are an easy recommendation for a win.

The recent stuttering of Mourinho's team can be a blessing for punters since it has brought Barcelona back in the frame to challenge. There was the danger, a few weeks back, that Guardiola would only be fielding his best team for the Champions League given that the La Liga title looked to be a lost cause. Their interest will have been rekindled that the hope that Real might falter in the title run-in. That means that if Barcelona can keep on their current irresistible form, they will be tough to beat on their travel to Mallorca on Saturday. Their defence is cause for concern as they got knocked for three against Granada in mid-week. But they have a player in Messi that is just un-stoppable nowadays. Barcelona should draw or win this game. It is for sure safer to have them as draw-no-bet but I think they will want to win this and I recommend them as an outright win.

In the EPL, Man City face another big hurdle in their quest for the title as they visit Stoke. Tony Pulis' men are always a threat at home to any team. This game can go either way, so I won't venture. Rivals Man Utd host Fulham and the return of Valencia and Young in the last few weeks have made a huge difference to the attacking potential of the team. Man Utd are experienced enough to tackle those games in the title run-in and should overcome Martin Jol's men. They are a Win selection as well.

I see Liverpool, Swansea and Norwich as draw-no-bets. Blackburn looks good value with an Asian Handicap of +1 goal against Bolton.

In Serie A, AC Milan make appeal as it hosts Roma and are recommended as a draw-no-bet.

In Germany, Bayern Munich should beat Hannover in order to cling on to their slim title hopes. They are a straight Win selection.


Win: Real Madrid, Barcelona, Man Utd, Bayern Munich

Draw-no-bet: Liverpool, Swansea, Norwich, AC Milan

Asian Handicap: Bolton +1.0

Lots on the line

Opinion Poll was among the placings, as expected, but Viscount Nelson was a no-show. The latter summed up a disappointing  meeting for the de Kock stable, in contrast to the Godolphin team which are pouring in the entries and getting the results, i.e. wins.

With their huge stable, it is no surprise that today the Dubai stable announced the recruitment of a 3rd jockey in their ranks, notably Barzalona, to help the causes of Dettori and the newly-recruited de Sousa. They were always going to attract the best jockeys to replace Dettori and the 2 new recruits are among the best in the business. Godolphin look to have renewed spring in their steps this year, and should be followed closely.

Racing Stateside, this week-end sees the running of the Santa Anita Handicap. Ultimate Eagle is the one to follow here; the son of Mizzen Mast looks to play a leading role among the older division this year after a demolition of the field on his first start on dirt. He should be in the first 3 and is recommended as a Place.

Moving East-wide, more particularly in Singapore, where the country's flag-ship horse Rocket Man makes his preparation for the Golden Shaheen in a few weeks time by running in a 6-furlong race in Kranji. He should win this, even though I don't think he's still as good as before (in other words, I don't think he will be a threat to Black Caviar if they were to meet). He's recommended as a Win.

In football, this looks like a week-end where Man City could distance themselves from Man Utd as the latter face a tough trip to Tottenham while City host Bolton. The Citizens should win their match against the Trotters and are recommended as a straight Win. If Utd can win at White Hart Lane, it would be massive for them and send shudders to their neighbours. A huge game it will be on Sunday and it could go either way.

Fulham host Wolves and I believe Martin Jol's men will pile misery on the visitors, who look primed for the drop, I believe. Fulham is a draw-no-bet selection.

Win: Rocket Man, Man City

Place: Ultimate Eagle

Draw-no-bet: Fulham

Lousy Dettori ride

Pimpernel backers will rightly feel aggrieved after the shocking ride she was subjected to in the Oaks. Just finished watching the replay again and no matter what Al Zarooni has said about Pimpernel being "too keen early on", the ride from Frankie Dettori merits disgust. She wouldn't have won, but second place was there for the taking, had the Italian shown some vigor aboard. Where was the Dettori full of zest aboard Rewilding in lowering the colors of So You Think at Royal Ascot? Talk about being him being immobile on Pimpernel. If yesterday's race had been run in Hong Kong, the stewards would have sent Frankie on a long expensive holiday, no doubt.

Frankie's a great jockey but he came out with a shameful nugget in that race.

The week-end's EPL match-ups are coming up and you get the feeling that some managers out there are playing for their careers. I don't know who's feeling more pressure right now, Villa Boas or Wenger? Probably the Chelsea manager, as the Frenchman still has some "goodwill" left with the Arsenal board, although that is surely rapidly dwindling! Both teams will win nothing this year, I predict!

Chelsea host Bolton in what are 3 must-win points, or else AVB could be out after the final whistle. I think they'll win although nothing is certain with the club in crisis. Draw-no-bet looks good value at this point and is the recommendation.

Newcastle host Wolves who will be under a new manager. Usually the introduction of a new manager somewhat spurs the team in his first game in charge, but they are really up to a very good Newcastle team at St James Park. The Magpies will have had the time to reflect on their recent drubbing at Tottenham and it's hard to see them losing at home. I recommend the hosts as draw-no-bet as well.

Leaders Man City host Blackburn and this should be straightforward win for the hosts. They have got their players back from the African Nations Cup. More importantly, they have settled things with Tevez, who will be an important asset in the title run-in. Although the Argentinian will not be playing tomorrow, Man City should have ample ammunition to see of Blackburn.

To me, Spurs looks to have the upper hand against Arsenal in the London Derby. The Gunners will play at home but their form is so poor and their team beset by injuries and a lack of confidence, that this is a great opportunity for the high-flying Spurs to prolong their arch-rivals' misery. Besides Van Persie, Tottenham will field a team that is better than Arsenal's in every other position. Spurs look to be the best value punt of the week-end.

Win: Man City
Draw-no-bet: Chelsea, Newcastle, Tottenham

Week-end football

Don't want to be blowing the trumpet too loud, but Thursday's results at Meydan gave way to massive cheers all afternoon. Musir won and easily beat Mendip in the match-bet. Master of Hounds was second at odds of 7/1 for Place at the exchanges. Fantastic to hear that several of you followed the selections; hopefully the current vein of form continues going into this week-end.

It's another round of football on the European scene; in England, Man Utd welcome Bolton and it's hard to argue the hosts at the Theatre of Dreams, even though they can throw the odd clanker like against Blackburn a few weeks back. Their injury list seems to be easing and Rooney looks to be back on form. Bolton are a disappointing bunch and manager Owen Coyle is on the hot seat at the moment. Man Utd certainly won't lose this game, and are a draw-no-bet recommendation.

There is no doubt that Man City is feeling the pressure. They have lost another home game in mid-week, in the Carling Cup to Liverpool. They have lost their captain Kompany for 4 games. They will still have too much class when they visit struggling Wigan on Monday. It is the perfect game for them to get their confidence back. Man City is recommended as a draw-no-bet as well.

In La Liga, Barcelona welcome Real Betis in what is a must-win game if they are to keep pace with a flee-ing Real Madrid. The hosts should win this game and are an easy Win selection. Real Madrid face a more difficult encounter when they visit Mallorca. I think Mourinho will have his players spot on for getting the 3 points and I expect them to win this match. They are also recommended as a straight Win.

Third-place Valencia host struggling side Real Sociedad and the hosts have to be very well-fancied here. Both teams lost in mid-week in the Copa del Rey, with Sociedad getting thrashed 6-1 at Mallorca. The visitors are in a precarious situation, being only 2 points above the relegation zone and I expect Valencia to deepen their woes further on Saturday. A draw-no-bet on Valencia looks safe.

In Italy, the competition is heating up at the top of the table with at least 5 clubs within an 8-point gap. There is no clear dominant team in the Serie A. Juventus will look for maximum points as they host Cagliari and I expect them to get at least a draw. So they are advised as a draw-no-bet. Same for Fiorentina as they host bottom-of-table Lecce. The hosts have solid form at home and should recover from their 3-0 drubbing at Roma in the Coppa Italia in mid-week.


Win: Barcelona, Real Madrid

Draw-no-bet: Man Utd, Man City, Valenci, Juventus, Fiorentina

Week-end football

Wakhan finished second for a winning recommendation.

I have quite a few selections for this week-end's football. In the EPL, I like Arsenal's chances as they travel to Blackburn. The Gunners are certainly a re-building team but they still have lots of quality. Rovers are one of my early picks for the drop and I cannot disagree with fans that are staging protests against their current manager. I see Arsenal taking at least a point from this travel, so I recommend them as draw-no-bet.

The best value bet of the week-end looks to be Aston Villa as they host Newcastle. I think Newcastle's excellent defensive record does not actually mirror its frailties at the back. Just looking at their last away game at QPR where they were nearly run out of the pitch and were lucky to come away with a goal-less draw. I can see Villa scoring at least one or two goals in this game. I recommend Villa as a draw-no-bet.

Bolton hosts Norwich and it's a great opportunity for the hosts to get the 3 points. Norwich is another that looks a good early candidate for the drop. Bolton as draw-no-bet is the recommendation.

In the Serie A, I like Inter Milan's chances at home to Roma. The Romans are clearly a team out of sorts and will be good fodder for Sneijder and co. The hosts are in bad need of victory after losses on opening week and in the Champions League. I recommend Inter as a draw-no-bet as well.

In Spain, it's the same boring (but rewarding) story. Barcelona will resume winning ways at home to Osasuna and are selected as Win. Real Madrid face an arguably tougher test going to Levante where they lost 2 points last season. I certainly don't see them losing this game and chances are that they will win it. Since they are coming back from a difficult away game in Zagreb, the safest option is a draw-no-bet on the Los Blancos.No surprise if they end up winning this game in the last minutes.

Win: Barcelona
Draw-no-bet: Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bolton, Inter, Real Madrid.

Week-end Preview.

Big Buck's won the World Hurdle for a record 3rd consecutive time. Glad the recommendation won, and that was my first and last foray on jump racing for this season!

Before I get to the week-end football preview, some comments on the Champions League match-ups that came up earlier during the day. Man Utd v/s Chelsea will be tight with slight advantage to Man Utd in my opinion. Tottenham v/s Madrid, it will be interesting to see how Redknapp plays Mourinho's team. I'm inclined to check how the English coach fared against Chelsea during the Special One's tenure in England. Could it have gotten any easier for Barcelona? Probably not. As I see it, if teams play to their strength, we are going towards a Barcelona v/s Madrid, and Man Utd v/s Inter semi-finals... But injuries always seem to play a part, so fingers crossed and we'll get to the matches in due time.

This week-end's Premier League match-ups sees Man City travelling to a seemingly-resurgent Chelsea. The other leaders will be hoping that this ends in a draw. Man Utd host Bolton in what should be a tough encounter as they are missing so many players and Bolton are no slouch. At the end, I don't expect Man Utd to lose this game, so I recommend them as draw-no-bet. Tottenham host West Ham and there won't be better opportunities for them to get 3 points. West Ham are playing well of late but are quite woeful on the road.  I recommend Tottenham as a draw-no-bet as I don't see them losing this one. Arsenal travel to West Brom in what on paper looks a formality for them. The Gunners come from a depressing fortnight when they've been bounced from 3 Cups! West Brom might offer some form resistance under new coach Hodgson, but in the end, Arsenal will either prevail or end up with a draw (which won't suit them). A draw-no-bet on Arsenal looks safe and is recommended.

In Spain, Barcelona can widen the gap at the top. They will beat Getafe. A win is recommended. Real Madrid face an arguably difficult derby game at Athletico, to whom they haven't lost to for the past 11 years, by the way! The Los Blancos played a tough match in the Champions League mid-week game against Lyon but they have a big enough squad to cope. I think this game will either end in a draw or a Real win. So a draw-no-bet on Real is recommended.

In Italy, I like Lazio, Inter, and Napoli in their home games against lowly teams. There's no sure win for any team in today's Serie A, so a draw-no-bet on all these 3 teams is recommended.


Win: Barcelona.
Draw-no-bet: Arsenal, Man Utd, Tottenham, Real Madrid, Lazio, Inter, Napoli.

Man City lose ground, so will Chelsea?

Barcelona, Man Utd, Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid all won, and the only blot in the predictions was Blackpool losing at home to Sunderland. I have to say I messed up on that one and wrongly under-estimated Sunderland. It's true that their keeper was unbelievable into making those saves that kept Blackpool off the score sheet, but Steve Bruce's men must be given credit for scoring 2 goals without arguably their 2 best strikers.

The biggest loser this week-end was Man City which lost even more ground to its Utd neighbours. Bringing in superstars during the January window does not necessarily reap immediate dividends since there is always an adjustment to be made in the system, and it will be interesting to see whether the Dzeko-Tevez partnership will click. 

Today, Chelsea are visiting Bolton and this is going to be a real test for the Blues. Under the guidance of Owen Coyle, Bolton seem to have gained some identity and they never make it easy for anyone. It could mean more blues for Drogba and his team mates particularly that Lampard is certain to miss the game. No recommendations here as any of the 2 teams could snatch this, but in my opinion, Chelsea will need to be at is near-best or some assistance from Lady Luck for it not to lose points here.

There are a couple of matches in England in mid-week; particularly a savoury Blackpool v/s Man Utd, which could have some decisive impact on the final standings. In Spain there are the Copa del Rey matches with Real and Barcelona still involved. I'll definitely be taking a look; thanks for tuning in.

Video replays and Chelsea to start winning?

Man City won as expected against Villa, in very cosily fashion. But the Man Utd draw at Birmingham was a reprieve for all its opponents since they should have bagged 3 points instead of just 1. The fact that none of the referees spotted the hand that led to the Birmingham goal (which might have been quite off-side as well, I will let replays decide) is quite amazing... you can bet that something like this can most certainly have an incidence on the final standings at the end of the season. In my opinion, it is quite ridiculous that FIFA and those that manage it, keep showing disdain when things like video replays and goal-line technology are suggested as a means to remove or prevent injustices like we've just seen in the game. I am not a fan of American football but I applaud that league and its managers for being willing to adopt whatever means are at their disposal for the benefit of a fair game. Sure, waiting for referees to view video replays can seem to take an eternity, but at the end of the day, they give you the fairest outcome whether you are at the winning or losing end of the replay decision. There are variations of using replays that can be used; such as for example, in tennis, players are only allowed a certain amount, or it could be up to the discretion of the linesman or referee. These can be tweaked with and refined as the experimentation of using replays or any other technology, gets adopted universally and matures. But the stance at FIFA is clearly to let the game within the hands and limited eye-sight of referees. They can't understand that referees are human and could need some assistance. So, they won't do anything to improve this part of the game and leave real football fans enraged when such injustices occur. An irresponsibility and a shame from the supposedly leaders of world football.

On Wednesday, for all its present woes, I just cannot see Chelsea losing to Bolton at the Bridge. This might be the game where they start their winning ways. Bolton have over-achieved so far this season, and they might make it a tight game at Chelsea, but the decision at the end should go to the hosts, as they are just a better team and will be hungry to avoid another negative result. A draw-no-bet on Chelsea is recommended.

Draw-no-bet: Chelsea

Saturday bets

Big races coming up on Saturday. Let's start:

Football. It's never easy for clubs to get their rhythm back or continue good form after an international break. Players have travelled a lot and come back late for a couple of training sessions before game-day. So some caution is warranted. But Man Utd seems a sure-fire bet. True that Albion went on to beat Arsenal at the Emirates, but they faced a really inept Arsenal side. I will go Man Utd for the Win. I will also play Bolton as Draw No Bet. Bolton wins, and you win. If Draw, you get your money back. I love this bet on Betfair. In the other leagues, go with these sure-fire Draw No Bets: Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Bayern Munich.

Big day in racing too. Although I won't bet (because this is too close to call), the Dewhurst should be between Frankel and Dream Ahead. I think Frankel edges this because of the distance. Dream Ahead has never gone over 6 furlongs, and his pedigree suggests the extension to 8 furlongs against the likes of Frankel will be too much to ask. We'll see if Frankel is as good as people think. I just need to see him win again to become a believer.

For the Champion Stakes, I like Twice Over. His trainer is bullish (which does not always happened) and he's the class horse of the race with the best preparation. I will have a hopeful bet on him as Place (or each-way). Gitano Hernando is as good a horse, but coming back only 15 days after his last race (after a long absence) does not bode well for a Group 1 race.

At the last in Cork, Cocozza definitely will be in the top 2. I can see it win unless Coolmore's Quest for Peace is something out of the ordinary. Cocozza to Place for sure. If no hard-luck in this field of 21, should win as well.

To recap:

- Win: Man Utd.

- Draw No Bet: Bolton, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich.

- Each-way: Twice Over, Cocozza.