Premier League 2014 - Battle of the Blues

Back from a good holiday break. Just in time for the new EPL season.

This new Premier League season is as intriguing as it's ever been. The best 3 teams in the country, Man Utd, Man City and Chelsea will start with new managers. That means that many of the assumptions regarding those teams in the past years can be thrown out of the window. The Mancunians will be the most heavily hit as they cannot rely on the massive Ferguson factor. After last year's debacle in Madrid, Mourinho will look for redemption at Chelsea and it remains to be seen if he can guide the Blues back to glory in conditions that look quite different to the ones he enjoyed in his first stint. Man City are still beefing up and they will look up to Pellegrini's management skills to bring success where ex-manager Mancini failed.

Although it might seem too early to have any certainty, I am very inclined to take a couple of positions. First, the winner will be out of these 3 teams mentioned above. I cannot see Arsenal, Tottenham or Liverpool or any other big club contending for the main prize. Arsenal will probably do better than last season, but as usual will find it unable to sustain any kind of serious challenge. They will falter at some point, as they've always been doing in the past few years. Tottenham does not have a big enough squad to go all the way through. Worse, they might lose the league's best player, in Gareth Bale. With or without the Welsh superstar, they cannot be considered a serious title contender. Liverpool also face losing their best player in Suarez. Even with him, I cannot see them in the first 4.

My second certainty is that Man Utd will not repeat as champions. I've talked about the loss of the Ferguson factor above and before. There are many other reasons. While he might be talented, new manager Moyes will need a period of adaptation. The pre-season friendlies have been hardly encouraging as they results have been far from convincing. The Red Devils have a tough schedule start. Games against Chelsea, Man City and Liverpool in the first weeks can destroy the chances of the team early, and can make it particularly tough for a new manager needing time to adapt. Then, there's the Rooney factor. Should Van Persie be missing from injury and Rooney not available, this Man Utd team will be reeling against tough opposition. Finally, their failure to secure a playmaker like Fabregas at this stage means that the team still needs improvement in midfield. Although things can change with new reinforcements, I think Man Utd fans will be right not to have too high hopes for this year. Don't get me wrong, Utd are still a force to reckon with as they have a strong squad and a certain Robin Van Persie, but there is more downside to them than the likes of Chelsea and Man City this year. Laying the Red Devils before the season starts because their tough start to the season means that they look set to drop points very early.

Yes, I think it will be a battle of the blue shirts for the title. It's a toss-up between Chelsea and Man City. On paper, City's squad is better balanced. They lost Tevez but the incomings of Fernandinho, Jovetic, Navas and Negredo will add to an already-explosive offence. But their best new asset might be new manager Pellegrini. A very successful manager in La Liga, if the Chilean can manage the egos of his star-studded squad and re-energize the old guard from the debacle of Mancini's days, Man City will have a great shout to the tile.

Chelsea will be counting on Mourinho to bring back success. If Man City were only a fictitious team, then there's no doubt that Chelsea would have been a shoo-in for the title. Under the Portuguese, they will do close to full points at Stamford Bridge. It remains to be seen how well they do on their travels. It might be worth comparing the quality of the current Chelsea squad to the one Mourinho had during this title winning years. There will be no more Drogba and the likes of Terry and Lampard will have aged for the worse. But Mata, Oscar and Hazard bring first-class offence to the team. I think if Man City were to fail for any reason, Chelsea will be ready to pick up the pieces.

So, that's my point of view; Man City and Chelsea will duke it out. It will be interesting to watch for any mental battles between Mourinho and Pellegrini. Mou already started the confrontation when he replaced the Chilean at Real Madrid. In his customary ways, he will certainly pepper things up when things are not going as planned. I cannot see Man Utd repeat as champions. Enjoy the season!


Win Title: Chelsea/Man City
Lay: Man Utd

European football preview

The directive that started months ago to keep on piling on Man Utd for the league continues un-abated this week-end as they stand a great chance of further widening the gap at the top. They will most certainly beat a manager-less Reading while City are not sure to come un-scathed from their visit to Everton. Here are my week-end picks.

Man Utd v/s Reading. No contest there, goals should be aplenty with the strikers in red looking for a field day. Van Persie has been quiet of late, so this is an ideal platform for him to bang them in. Easy Win selection for the hosts.

Aston Villa v/s QPR. A 6-pointer between 2 teams fighting relegation. Villa are better than their current position suggests and will be keen to add an important 3 points to their tally. QPR have won 2 games in a row, which must have buoyed them greatly in their bid to secure what seemed an unlikely survival in the top flight just a few weeks ago. This game can really go either way and I feel the game will be decided on a decisive action on either side. Better sit and watch this one.

Everton v/s Man City. The visitors will be missing captain Kompany and striker Aguero. Everton were shocked at home to Wigan in the FA Cup last week and manager Moyes will be keen to right the ship, to keep their faint hopes for a Top 4 finish alive. Everton have a good record at home and I believe they will seriously test the Citizens. I fancy them with a +1 goal handicap.

Southampton v/s Liverpool. The Kops are the team form of the moment with striker Suarez in sparkling form. The hosts are far from easy meat at home where they've beaten top teams and even Man Utd needed late goals from Van Persie to secure a win over there. The Saints are not safe from relegation yet and they will rely every bit on striker Lambert to cause havoc at the other end. I like Southampton with a +1 goal advance here as well.

Sunderland v/s Norwich. I would be very surprised if the hosts were to lose this one. That's 3 points for them to take and a draw-no-bet on Sunderland looks to be the value punt of the week-end.

Wigan v/s Newcastle. Again here, I cannot see the visitors winning this. They had a hard Thursday game against Anzhi, which they won well at the death. Wigan can certainly win this one, although there's also value going draw-no-bet with them for a safer outcome.

In La Liga, I see wins for Real Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia. Real Sociedad is a draw-no-bet selection at home to Vallaloid.

In Germany, Dortmund should win at home to Freiburg. Bayern Munich are a draw-no-bet selection on their away trip to Leverkusen.

Win: Man Utd, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Dortmund
+1 Goal: Everton, Southampton
Draw-no-bet: Sunderland, Wigan, Real Sociedad, Bayern Munich

Man Utd v/s Real Madrid - all about Ronaldo

Good luck to whoever can predict how the return leg of the Man Utd v/s Real Madrid game will pan out on Tuesday. Much of the scenario that will unfold will depend on which teams takes its opportunities to score and shows the most hunger to go through. Both teams have their chances and the market is being logical in giving preference for Real to go through.

I look at the match from the this angle; Real have to score to have any chance of going through, and like most, I strongly believe they will score. Ronaldo must be favoured to hit the net at the stadium he made his name. That means that Man Utd will have to score at least twice to go through, without resorting to the lottery of the penalty shoot-out. They have the potential to do that because on their best form, they have the firepower to destroy a not-so-good Real defence.

Real will go in the game fully confident after its double dismantling of Barcelona. But this game is all about their main weapon Ronaldo, no-one else. If Man Utd can keep him quiet, they must have a massive chance. They can go mano-a-mano with any player in the Real team, but the Portuguese is a player out of this planet. The midfield and defence must try to contain him and rely on some luck, while letting the strike duo of Rooney and Van Persie do the damage on the other end.

The result can be up for grabs but I definitely see both teams scoring, so that is my selection. That's why I also lean towards Madrid to go through. However, the Red Devils can outscore any team at the Theatre of Dreams, so if their defence can keep the damage to a minimum, they will still have a chance. This should be a classic, enjoy.

To score: Man Utd, Real Madrid

EPL and Carling Cup Final preview

Saturday's Carling Cup final will pit 2 teams with an ocean of class between them. Swansea is fighting for an Europa spot in the Premier League while Bradford is plying its trade 3 leagues below in League 2 football. There is no way you can go with Bradford City on this one. Granted, there have been shocks in finals before; just a few years back, Birmingham was on its way to relegation from the EPL and still managed to beat heavily-favoured Arsenal. The realilty is Arsene Wenger has lost more finals than he's won, so it was not a shock of cataclysmic proportions.

Here we have a Swansea team led by an upcoming manager in Laudrup, who will be keen to get the first major trophy of this fledging managerial career. They boast in the ranks one of the top strikers in the EPL today in Michu, who's been one of the revelations of the year. The welsh club are one of select sides, besides the usual top teams, that play good incisive football, that will create problems to any side they encounter.

The reality for Bradford is to try barricade its box and desperately rely on counter-attacks for a deadly goal or make the match last till the lottery of penalties. That would be their best chance of lifting the trophy against all odds. I don't think it will happen, no matter how nice a Cinderella story that would be. Bradford has a huge task facing this talented Swansea side. Looking at the odds, I will go for Swansea to lift the cup in the end, and although the chances are that they will settle the issue inside regular time, a draw-no-bet on them looks safe as well.

Here are my thoughts on some of the week-end matches in the EPL.

Arsenal v/s Villa. Not surprisingly, Arsenal seem destined to win nothing again. They were booted out of the FA Cup last week, they are nearly down and out in the Champions League against Bayern, and they stand no chance in winning the EPL. The best target they can aim for, like in previous years, is at least a 4th place finish in the EPL that will guarantee them UCL football next season. They will have to be wary of Benteke, the Villa striker that seems to be scoring for fun lately. I don't see many goals in this one mainly because the Gunners are bound to feel the effects of Wednesday's drubbing against the Germans, and the Villains will certainly opt for a defensive display to try to sneak a point out of the contest. Still, it might be good value to opt for Arsenal as a draw-no-bet.

QPR v/s Man Utd. I posed the question before the Real Madrid game on how good or bad were the Red Devils. I think they showed they were a very good team that could rival with the best of them any day. This team can play different types of systems; defensive, counter-attacking, offensive, man-marking, and the thing is that they are always a goal-threat with the likes of Van Persie and Rooney. The talent at the disposal of Sir Alex Ferguson is scary; Nani, Chicharito, Anderson don't even have a spot in the first team at the moment. Harry Redknapp's teams used to cause problems to Man Utd years ago, but it seems that he can't find the magic touch against them lately. The truth is, no matter the big signings since the start of the season, Rangers looks a very unbalanced team with a very suspect team play and even a maestro like Redknapp is having trouble righting the sinking ship. This could be a big night for Van Persie to add to his goal tally. Man Utd are a Win selection and they should go 15 points clear by this match.

Man City v/s Chelsea. The hosts have the advantage of not having had an European match to deal with in mid-week. Chelsea can be considered lucky to have scraped through Sparta Prague in the Europa League but they will definitely be feeling the exertions of that match. Last year's fixture was a tight one where the Citizens managed to win after going a goal down, and there is no reason to believe that the match will not be close again this year. They are still the 2 best teams in the EPL after Man Utd. With the seemingly renewed confidence of the strikers Aguero and Tevez, and with the efficient Dzeko, I believe the hosts have the answer to the Chelsea defence. They are a draw-no-bet selection.


Win Cup: Swansea
Win: Man Utd
Draw-no-bet: Swansea, Arsenal, Man City

Litmus test for the Red Devils

The Champions League first-leg match between possibly the 2 greatest sides in football gets under-way in a few hours. A few months ago, I would have said that Real Madrid was a banker to go through. They were, and are still I believe, the second best team in the world after Barcelona. Man Utd were, and are still, plagued by a woeful defence that sullies the good names of its predecessors. So, it was a no-brainer a few months back.

Some important variables have since changed and most of it is from Real. They are a club plagued by internal rife that has totally undone them in the domestic league. There is every plausible reason to believe that this could prolong to the Champions League. Mourinho is a great manager but he's shown he's a coach for 2-3 seasons at a club. His expiry date goes fast and it looks that his time in Madrid is up very soon. Worse, it looks like it won't be done with a happy hand-shaking, given the turmoil surrounding the club. All this has had an impact on the football from the team; they are a great team on paper but they've been overly exposed in recent months, showing many glimpses of a side that can easily undo itself. They will have to be at or near their best to overcome Man Utd.

This Man Utd side is unique in that there are so many polar and divided opinions about it. For some, they are a great team, close to the Treble team. For others, they are without any doubt several notches below and any attempt for comparison would be scandalous. This is why, I believe, this encounter with Madrid is the real litmus test. Beat them fairly and they will show they are a truly great side. I've said it before, I  like everything from this Utd team except its defence. I think their strike force and midfield is as strong as it's ever been. Robin Van Persie can score out of nothing and gives them unmatched firepower. The defence is a big concern. It is a mix of the unproven, error-prone and sell-past-date players that will make Christinao Ronaldo looking for a field day. Red Devil fans must hope that the back four can keep the goals-against respectable and let RVP and co do the damage on the other side of the pitch.

This tie is very much up for grabs. There are other story lines regarding Mourinho's good record against Ferguson. That's a fallacy to look at. They encountered twice in the Champions League and although the score is even, it should be the Scot enjoying a 2-0 score. When the Red Devils lost to Porto, they had a valid goal disallowed that would have settled the tie. The Portuguese were also lucky to pounce on a last-minute error by keeper Tim Howard to score the go-through goal. Were it not for that lucky result, Mourinho would not be bragging about his CL record, and who knows, maybe he wouldn't have been given the Chelsea manager role that made his name. The second time they met in the UCL, Man Utd outclassed and dumped Mourinho's Inter Milan team at the quarter final's stage when the Italians were favourites to go through.

I will sit on the fence on this one. Man Utd need to keep it tight at the back to have any chance. We will finally know how good or bad they are. In turmoil or not, Real Madrid are logical favourites to go through on paper. Enjoy the game.

EPL Preview

Finally, the EPL is back! No offence to the FA Cup, but there are no certainties when punting on the Cup games, and punting can turn out to be a very speculative exercise.

This week-end will be as competitive a fixture as I can remember. There aren't much between the opposing teams and it would be no surprise to see a lot of drawn matches or one single goal settling many results.

Fulham v/s Wigan. This is a battle between 2 teams with some amount of injury problems. I fancy the visitors to get a result here. They are a disciplined side who excel in breaking down an opponent's attack. They are well capable of exposing Fulham's failings at the back, particularly on the counter-attack. I will go for Wigan with a +1 goal Handicap.

Reading v/s West Brom. Reading's best chance of survival this season is to get maximal amount of points at home where they have proved to be prolific scorers. West Brom are one of the over-achieving teams of the year and they have a decent record on the road. They could win this game if they can keep the hosts quiet for a long duration of the game. For safety here, I will select the Baggies with a +1 goal Handicap.

QPR v/s Tottenham. Rangers are a tough team to predict. They can lose silly games at home against the likes of West Brom and Liverpool, then stun Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. They are a team loaded with problems and lack of depth and cohesion, and I am not certain that even Harry Redknapp can keep them afloat this year. My feeling is that if Spurs are at the very best, they should win this game. They have no injury worries and Gareth Bale could have a very big game here. Spurs is a draw-no-bet selection.

Stoke v/s Chelsea. I watched Chelsea's defeat at home to Swansea on Wednesday. What a woeful performance and the worrying fact is that Benitez had fielded his first team. Torres is not even worth a tenth of his 50 million pound tag. In fact, he's not even worth newcomer Demba Ba. When the Senegalese came on, he enlivened the Blues' attack and created their only chances of the game. Chelsea have to start with Ba to have any chance of winning this game. Still, a full-strength Stoke will make things difficult for them at the Britannia stadium. I believe there's value going with Stoke as a draw-no-bet.

Man Utd v/s Liverpool. It will be surprising if this game does not deliver fireworks; it's between the fiercest rivals in English soccer, even though Liverpool haven't won the league for the past 25 years or so! They will have to rely on Suarez to get something out of this game. The Uruguayan is in tremendous form and will be keen to wreak havoc in the generous Man Utd defence. As they've done all year long, the hosts will rely on Van Persie to settle things and he's been an absolute bargain buy for the Red Devils. He's scored the winner against Man City and it would not be stretching to see him net again in this derby. Man Utd is a draw-no-bet selection; they will particularly not want to lose at home to their rivals and have the attack to outscore them. The hosts just need to stay away from red cards and neutralize Suarez.


Draw-no-bet: Man Utd, Stoke, Tottenham
+1 Handicap: West Brom, Wigan

EPL Wednesday

Aston Villa obliged with the win, albeit with a late goal from Benteke. Here are my views on some of today's matches.

Stoke v/s Newcastle. Difficult to go with the Magpies here with their recent poor run. They will get central defender Collocini back but will still be missing their creative midfielders Ben Arfa and Cabaye, the latter gone for a long time. I see Stoke either winning or drawing this, so a draw-no-bet on the hosts is the recommendation.

Tottenham v/s Liverpool. The Kops have enjoyed some good results of late, led by the sparkling form of Suarez. I think however that they will be found wanting against a strong opponent like Tottenham. Bale, Lennon and particularly Defoe look set to pick holes in this rather exposed Liverpool defense. I like Spurs as a draw-no-bet as well.

Man Utd v/s West Ham. The hosts will be disappointed if they can't get full points here. Hammers' manager Allardyce used to have a good record against Fergie's teams but that was in the early part of the past decade. This current Man Utd team seems to make things difficult for itself by going behind and relying on its potent strike force to storm back. There is no doubt that their Achilles heel is their porous defence. Van Persie has been quiet in the past couple of games and this could be his wake-up game. Man Utd for the win is the selection.

Wigan v/s Man City. Wigan is beset by injuries at the moment and Man City will not find a better time to play the Latics. Obviously, City is still huffing and puffing at the moment but they have too much depth in the squad to be upset here. Man City looks a safe draw-no-bet.

Win: Man Utd
Draw-no-bet: Stoke, Tottenham, Man City

Football preview

Had a good round last week-end with 8 correct selections out of 10. As usual, I stayed away from the mid-week international friendlies which I believe are a waste of time punt-wise.  Zlatan Ibrahimovic's 4th goal against England was however, worth a look and is one for the ages.

The greatest goal I have seen (just my opinion) is Negrete's bicycle kick, outside the box, in World Cup 86 in the match between Mexico and Bulgaria. Zlatan's overhead kick was also outside the box, actually further from goal, at a full 30 yards. Whether he's a choker in big games or not, no one can doubt that the Swede can score wonder goals; recall the brushed side-heel one he scored against Italy in the 2004 European Championship.

Back to League football where Chelsea and Man City are huffing and puffing at the moment and Man Utd have seized the opportunity to comfortably shoot up at the top of the EPL in recent weeks. Here are my thoughts on this week-end's round of matches.

Arsenal v/s Tottenham. The hosts are beset by injuries and uneven form, so they might be upset here. Much of their chances will reside on whether Walcott can play or not. Tottenham will certainly be giving them all they can handle. This Derby looks set to result in a lot of goals, and I will go with a safe selection of Tottenham with a +1 goal handicap.

Liverpool v/s Wigan. Much depends on what type of Wigan shows up. They were disappointing in losing at home to WBA last week-end. Suarez is on fire for Liverpool but it remains to be seen how long more he can shoulder the goal scoring responsibilities for the club. The result of this match can go either way.

Man City v/s Villa. Got to go with the hosts here, even though they are struggling mightily. European Cup failure, I believe, is weighing heavily on the players' and manager's minds. I have changed my mind about this Villa team; under Lambert, they have become a decent and much better side than under the McLeish regime. Benteke can cause problems for the City defence. Still at the end, I cannot see the Villains taking the 3 points, and I see City as a safe draw-no-bet selection.

Newcastle v/s Swansea. Newcastle came up with a nugget at home to West Ham last week-end and it would be surprising if they suffered 2 successive home defeats, even though they will be missing some key players in Cabaye, Coloccini and potentially striker Cisse. I will trust them with a draw-no-bet against a Swansea team that have a few injury issues of their own. if fully-fit, Demba Ba could be set to end his goal drought of the past couple of games.

QPR v/s Southampton. QPR will not have as good an occasion to aim for 3 points here than against lowly Southampton. If they are to survive the relegation battle, this is a must win for them. They are getting a few key players back and should enjoy a better remaining part of the campaign. Southampton are struggling on the road and will be equally keen to capitalize on any chances Rangers will provide them. I give QPR home advantage here and have the hosts as a draw-no-bet.

Reading v/s Everton. This could very well be yet another win for Everton. They have been impressive since the start of the season, and are led by an inspiring Fellaini. Reading will have to come up with their A-game and their usually-flaky defence will be put to the test against the powerful Toffees. Everton is another draw-no-bet selection.

West Brom v/s Chelsea. The Baggies showed they were a good force to reckon with at home when they went toe-to-toe with Man City a few weeks ago, albeit with one extra man. Chelsea will have to be at their best to get the win. This match can go either way, so I'll sit on the fence on this one.

Norwich v/s Man Utd. Last year, the Red Devils were somewhat lucky to snatch victory with the game's last kick through the ever-green Ryan Giggs. I think they will re-iterate this year with another win. Van Persie, Chicharito are on fire and even though Rooney might miss the call, they are sufficiently potent in attack to make the difference. The visitors are a win selection.

Fulham v/s Sunderland. This is the game where Sunderland could spring a shock. They nearly did it at Goodison Park last week and it would not be a stretch to think that they can go and beat a Fulham team that is leaking goals in abundance in their last matches. Sunderland with a +1 handicap is the value bet of the week-end.

West Ham v/s Stoke. Stoke like parking the bus on the road; West Ham have good form at home. This could very well end up in a draw. I'll abstain on this one.

In the rest of Europe, I see wins for Inter, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia, Dortmund, Bayern and PSG.

Win: Man Utd, Inter, Real, Barcelona, Valencia, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, PSG
Draw-no-bet: Man City, Newcastle, QPR, Everton,
Handicap +1: Tottenham, Sunderland

Countdown to the St Leger

Fantastic week-end it was with mostly everything on target, with a couple of voided draw-no-bets. The big one came at Anfield where the Gunners did what was expected of them to beat a sorry Liverpool side. Man City, Man Utd, Real Madrid all won and Atletico Madrid pounded on Chelsea in the Super Cup on Friday. Tottenham and Newcastle snatched draws for voids.

Radamel Falcao, what a striker. He always scores in a final; I actually can't recall a final in which he hasn't scored. Fantastic finisher, one that Chelsea will rue to have missed during the transfer season. He will cost a lot in January. One team that probably won't look for his services is Man Utd. They are loaded in that department and their new recruit RVP got his own superb hat-trick against the Saints on Sunday. The fact that he scored 2 brilliant goals after missing a penalty in the last third of the game, shows that he's got mettle. With the services from Utd's awesome wingers, RVP is certainly an early favourite for best EPL scorer again this year.

Christiano Ronaldo, what do you call something worse than a prima donna? The supremely-talented but moody spoiled brat came up with his bombshell "sad" state of affairs that has everyone speculating what is the professional reason for his self-evoked sadness. Money it isn't, he denies. It's very hard to think otherwise. He knows his tantrums will make the headlines and whatever the reason, this guy has redefined the word prima donna. The second-best player in the world, but too manipulative and no class. His late antics show why people prefer Messi.

 Finally, in racing, the run down to this week culminates to the last Classic of the season, the St Leger. Will Camelot do the Triple Crown? All indications from connections is that he's spot on. In his words, Aidan O'Brien says his superstar is the most incredible horse he's trained. What does that mean? Is he the best? Better than Galileo, So You Think, High Chaparral? As usual, there's nothing precise in his words. Didn't he say that he thought highly of St Nicholas Abbey that he could "walk on water", so to speak? i.e, do incredible things. Now Frankel is the closest thing to that, but not St Nick Abbey, from what we've seen.

What is for certain is that Camelot is really good, and looking at his opponents at this time, it looks like his path to immortality will only be thwarted by the Gosden stable, who've actually won the last 2 editions of the race. His colt Michaelangelo looks the main danger. I'll get to the review in due time, but that's my feeling at the moment.

Week-end Preview

My week-end preview of some of this week-end's matches in Europe.

Man Utd v/s Fulham. This looks to be a hard game for the Red Devils and the danger is there that they could be shocked by the visitors if they haven't synced well as a team yet; i.e, much will depend on how the players play with Van Persie and how the make-shift defence is able to withstand the potent Fulham attack. It is very probable however that if Man Utd get some flow in their attacking game and get on the score sheet, they could open the floodgates. Man Utd as a draw-no-bet looks the safest form of punt, but it won't shock me if Fulham get at least a point from this game by exploiting weaknesses in a team that has yet to gel with some big-name newcomers.

Sunderland v/s Reading. I mentioned last week that Sunderland would be difficult to tame at the Emirates and so they proved. I really expect expect them to do well this year and possibly squeeze a Europa spot. They won't get chances of an easier 3 points than when they host Reading, who've lost in mid-week at Chelsea. At current odds, Sunderland as a draw-no-bet looks great value.

Swansea v/s West Ham. Swansea were amazing in their opening match against QPR, trouncing Mark Hughes' men with 5 unanswered goals. The hosts have made some good signings over the summer but their best signing has been their manager Michael Laudrup. He's got a great football brain and will certainly help them play good intelligent football. Provided they are not suffering from over confidence from last week's win, they should continue on their winning ways against West Ham. A draw-no-bet on the hosts looks safe as well.

Valencia v/s Deportivo. Deportivo have started their campaign well by beating Osasuna by a pair of goals while Valencia have gotten merit in drawing at the Bernabeu against Real Madrid. In fact, Soldado and could be counted as unlucky to have a valid goal ruled out for offside. The home advantage should be favourable to Valencia here although it is a team that will only get better as the season prolongs given the number of new faces in the squad. Valencia is a good draw-no-bet here.

Osasuna v/s Barcelona. The Catalans beat arch-rivals Real Madrid in the Spanish Super Cup during the week and don't seem to have lost any of their awesome style of play under new coach Villanova. Messi is already in great form and that does not bode well for the hosts. That should be an easy 3 points for the Blaugrana who cannot afford to let go of such favourable pickings. Straight win for Barca.

Getafe v/s Real Madrid. Real have possibly played their 2 toughest opponents in Spain in the last week and have failed to win in both; a draw against Valencia and a defeat at Barcelona. The team is not at its cohesive best yet since the regulars have missed much of the pre-season. However, Mourinho will be gunning for 3 important points against Getafe, who've logically lost their first match away at Sevilla. A close to must-win game for Real Madrid to keep in touch with Barcelona and I see them winning this game.

Win: Barcelona, Real Madrid

Draw-no-bet: Man Utd, Sunderland, Swansea

Kickstart to the season

This is it, start of what promises to be another cracker of an EPL season. Spanish La Liga starts too on Saturday with the expectation that Barcelona and Real Madrid will run away from the pack, a la Frankel. Here are some of my predictions for the first week-end.

Arsenal v/s Sunderland. This is a first serious test for Arsene Wenger and his team. Not just because it's their first match post-RVP, it's also against Martin O'Neil, who's a master giant killer. If the Gunners haven't fully recuperated from the departure of their talisman, they will be made to pay by the visitors. It's a real tricky match for the hosts and there's no certainty that they will come up with the 3 points.

Man City v/s Southampton. The Citizens start their championship defence with a rather easy game against newly-promoted Southampton. Easy 3 points for the hosts here, with in-form Tevez certain to be at the fore-front of things.

Everton v/s Man Utd. The Red Devils always have a hard game at Goodison Park and it will certainly be the case again for their opening game. They might be lucky if they catch an Everton that is not in full-flow at this stage. But the reverse might be true as well. The RVP transfer will certainly have given the squad a big boost. They should either draw or win this game, so a draw-no-bet on the Red Devils looks safe.

Real Madrid v/s Valencia. Real had a really good pre-season winning all their games State-side, but this is not going to be an easy 3 points for the hosts. Their core players have only recently started serious training, so Mourinho will count on a few fringe players to make their mark. Still, their quality should be enough to overcome a Valencia team that is in a rebuilding stage this year. They have at least 6 new acquisitions and will take time to gel as well. Madrid should be able to get the vital 3 points here.

Barcelona v/s Real Sociedad. This is the league debut for new Barcelona manager Tito Vilanova. It is widely expected that the previous assistant coach will continue the highly-successful and formidable system of play of the Blaugrana. That being the case, Barcelona should be headed for the easy win. A note of prudence though that Guardiola lost his first league game in charge of Barcelona. Lightning rarely happens twice though!

The value of the week-end is in racing State-side where Lady of Shamrock looks hard to beat in Saturday's Del Mar Oaks. The winner of the American Oaks is a leading player among the Classic female contingent on turf, having been only beaten once on the surface after a rough trip. She should be in the first 3 and is a Place recommendation.


Win: Man City, Real Madrid, Barcelona

Draw-no-bet: Man Utd
Place: Lady of Shamrock

Premier League 2012/13 Preview

In one swift move, that can be characterized as another moment of brilliance, Alex Ferguson has tilted the balance of power for the coming Premier League season. This is the move that everyone else did not want happen but which the Utd boss desperately needed to catch up with the might of neighbours City. Robin Van Persie's move to Utd is clearly a game changer for both the EPL and Champions League as the Red Devils can now boast about having the best strike force in the world; Rooney, RVP, Chicharito, Kagawa, and Wellbeck, not to mention that the equally good Berbatov is ailing on the sidelines. Since the massive news of the transfer of the Dutchman, rumours are abounding about the parting of Chicharito, and even if that were to happen, the strike force would still be most fearsome. Goals will be bountiful.

I don't have much doubt in my mind that the EPL crown will stay in Manchester this season. On paper, City are still a little better than Utd. They however need to show they can retain the title. It is always so much easier to get to the top than to stay there, as the saying goes. On the managerial side, there is no problem in that regard as Mancini has notched 3 consecutive titles in the Serie A with Inter Milan. The distraction of the Champions League should still leave him focused enough for the EPL challenge. Their main challenge he will face is keeping the team together and minimize off-pitch issues with the likes of Tevez and Balotelli. Although they have been rather muted on the transfer market so far, this City squad is most impressive and can beat any team on any day.

Going back to Utd, their weaknesses lie in defence and midfield, just like last year. Much of their hopes relies on the availability of captain Vidic. His non-availability last year was what caused their demise and they will be destined to the same fate if he spends much time on the sidelines again. He is irreplaceable. In midfield, there is a clear lack of playmaker; Paul Scholes is still high-class but he can only be used sparingly. It is clear that Ferguson wanted upcoming Eden Hazard or Lucas Moura to fill in that gap and the fact that he lost out on both counts will enliven the debate as to who will rule the Utd midfield. If Brazilian Anderson stays fit, he could be the one, but he's too often prone to injuries.

The title will certainly be between Utd and City and Londoners Chelsea or Arsenal should challenge for third place. Chelsea are an enigma team as they have players on the wane and interesting newcomers like Hazard. Di Matteo is a good coach and he's possibly their best permanent signing of the season. If Arsenal stay consistent the whole season, they are my favourites to get that remaining podium spot, even without RVP. Time and again, Arsene Wenger has shown that he can replace the players that have left, and the arrivals of Giroud, Cazorla and Podolski will possibly fill much of the gap. The problem with Arsenal, as I have been writing, is that there is a missing ingredient in Arsene's management that keeps them from reaching the top; that inherent will to win that Ferguson and Mourinho have, that filters through to the whole team and give them 10 extra points during a season. It's not about just pretty football or massive profit targets, it's about winning games when everything is on the line and bringing trophies and making winners out of players.

I see Tottenham under-achieving compared to last year. Clearly getting rid of Redknapp, one of the 5 best managers in the league, is a step down. Villa Boas is good, but does not compare. Liverpool are a re-building side and the arrival of new manager Rogers from Swansea will not make them title contenders.

For those that have an appetite for ante-post or such markets that take months to settle, the following below are my value punts for the EPL given the odds available today. Of course, the season flows and ebbs and prices change significantly during the year but at this stage, those odds look under-priced on the exchanges.

Winner: Man Utd/Man City

Top 2: Man Utd

Top 3: Man City, Man City

Top 4: Arsenal

Lay: Tottenham Top 3, Liverpool Top 4

No chance for the Gunners

I am surprised there are still odds on offer for Milan to qualify against Arsenal in tonight's Champions League qualifier. Take them because Arsenal have no chance of qualifying after their 0-4 defeat at the San Siro. Absolutely no chance. They are not sure even to win this game, let alone win by more than 4 goals. This is not the Milan that let a 3-goal slip to Liverpool in the UCL final a few years back. The Italians would have learned their lesson.

Despite its last 2 wins in the EPL, the Gunners are still a thoroughly exposed team with a leaky defence; they were certainly lucky to get the win at Anfield last week-end. Their only positive note for them is Van Persie but Milan will be all too aware to muzzle him. If the visitors score 1, Arsenal will need 6 goals to qualify on the away goals rule. It's mission impossible for Wenger and his team. I am not even bothering reading his comments on his players having the belief to qualify. That's the only thing he can say and every one knows it won't happen. Even if Arsenal were to score the first goal in the first minute, there would be no need be shaking; they will not qualify today and gone will be their last Cup hope again. However small the odds for Milan to qualify, they are a bargain.


To qualify: Milan

Lousy Dettori ride

Pimpernel backers will rightly feel aggrieved after the shocking ride she was subjected to in the Oaks. Just finished watching the replay again and no matter what Al Zarooni has said about Pimpernel being "too keen early on", the ride from Frankie Dettori merits disgust. She wouldn't have won, but second place was there for the taking, had the Italian shown some vigor aboard. Where was the Dettori full of zest aboard Rewilding in lowering the colors of So You Think at Royal Ascot? Talk about being him being immobile on Pimpernel. If yesterday's race had been run in Hong Kong, the stewards would have sent Frankie on a long expensive holiday, no doubt.

Frankie's a great jockey but he came out with a shameful nugget in that race.

The week-end's EPL match-ups are coming up and you get the feeling that some managers out there are playing for their careers. I don't know who's feeling more pressure right now, Villa Boas or Wenger? Probably the Chelsea manager, as the Frenchman still has some "goodwill" left with the Arsenal board, although that is surely rapidly dwindling! Both teams will win nothing this year, I predict!

Chelsea host Bolton in what are 3 must-win points, or else AVB could be out after the final whistle. I think they'll win although nothing is certain with the club in crisis. Draw-no-bet looks good value at this point and is the recommendation.

Newcastle host Wolves who will be under a new manager. Usually the introduction of a new manager somewhat spurs the team in his first game in charge, but they are really up to a very good Newcastle team at St James Park. The Magpies will have had the time to reflect on their recent drubbing at Tottenham and it's hard to see them losing at home. I recommend the hosts as draw-no-bet as well.

Leaders Man City host Blackburn and this should be straightforward win for the hosts. They have got their players back from the African Nations Cup. More importantly, they have settled things with Tevez, who will be an important asset in the title run-in. Although the Argentinian will not be playing tomorrow, Man City should have ample ammunition to see of Blackburn.

To me, Spurs looks to have the upper hand against Arsenal in the London Derby. The Gunners will play at home but their form is so poor and their team beset by injuries and a lack of confidence, that this is a great opportunity for the high-flying Spurs to prolong their arch-rivals' misery. Besides Van Persie, Tottenham will field a team that is better than Arsenal's in every other position. Spurs look to be the best value punt of the week-end.

Win: Man City
Draw-no-bet: Chelsea, Newcastle, Tottenham

Arsenal in the Nou Camp cauldron

Chelsea expectedly won without much sweat against Blackpool for an easy winning recommendation.

Tomorrow Tuesday, the focus is on the return match between Barcelona and Arsenal. Were it not for 5 minutes of madness in the first leg, the Catalans should already have sealed their qualification for the next stage. They actually overwhelmingly deserved to win that match and were on course to do so until Arsenal capitalized on 2 rare counter-attacks. The reality though is that Barcelona now need to put a dominating display to overcome the first-leg deficit. Rewind last year, and Barcelona were in an almost similar situation against Inter and came up short. This time, they only have 1 goal to overcome, and most importantly, they play an Arsenal team that has a lot of breaches in its defence. The negatives for Barcelona are as follows: absence of their coach Guardiola for the past week, and absence of their first-choice centre-backs in Pique and most certainly Puyol. On the other hand, Arsenal will miss one of their best offensive weapons in Walcott, and Fabregas and Van Persie are not sure to be at 100% if they succeed in making it to the game.

If Arsenal score first, it will put an unprecedented pressure on the hosts, and radically change the context of the game. The expectation will be for Barcelona to open the scoring and thus the game completely. I just cannot see Arsenal winning over there if Van Persie and Fabregas fail to play. Even if they do, the Barcelona forwards will find ways to open up the Gunners defence. Arsenal could score over there, but in the end they will be outscored. I recommend Barcelona as a draw-no-bet.

Draw-no-bet: Barcelona

Chance for Arsenal to close the gap

Real Madrid came out of Lyon with an invaluable away goal which could prove decisive for the second leg. It looks Chelsea are certain to go through after winning at Copenhagen. On Wednesday, Man Utd travel to Marseille for a tricky encounter. The Red Devils are being hit with a sort of mini injury-crisis with the likes of Ferdinand and Giggs missing the trip, and Ji-Sung Park and Anderson potentially out for 3-4 weeks and more. They still have enough firepower to score away goals, and they will be relieved to hear that the French team will be missing a couple of key players as well. No recommendations on that one as you just cannot know what kind of team will show up with the injury toll.

For punting, I like Arsenal's chances against Stoke. The Gunners are in good form, and will be keen not to miss bagging 3 points at home and reduce the gap with Man Utd at the top. Van Persie will be favourite to be on-target again, but there are other Gunners that are doing well enough presently to be on the score sheet notably Arshavin. A draw-no-bet on Arsenal is recommended.

Draw-no-bet: Arsenal

Tottenham did it, can Arsenal?

The knock-out stages of the Champions League just got under-way today, and Tottenham went to get an amazing result at the San Siro. Spurs are supposed to be on a learning mission in their first foray in the European Cup, and yet they are accumulating wins and still standing. Harry Redknapp is a magician really! He can really turn a decent team into a really good one. Probably his off-field problems will hamper his chances of becoming England manager one day, but he sure seems like he would have been a good one. You can bet that the Spurs brass hopes he never gets that job, as they will go downhill from there-on, just like West Ham and Portsmouth did.

Tomorrow is a big day for the Gunners, who face Barcelona at the Emirates stadium. There's been a lot of talking from the Arsenal camp leading to the match about them "matching-up" to Barcelona's level. It will be a massive challenge for them to backup these assertions. They are in good form, with Van Persie on a goal scoring run, but can they deliver on the big stage?  I am hoping for some good attacking football but it could be that Wenger decides that closing the game gives his team the best chance to advance. In my opinion, if Barcelona play near their best, they will be able to exploit the many lapses in the Arsenal defence. I think in the end, Barcelona will prevail or snatch a vital draw, but there's really no point speculating on the outcome. I will watch it mainly from the pure footballing side and hope for a repeat of the match they played last year.

I can't find anything of value to recommend either in football or horse racing on Wednesday. Punt safe.