That was a superb World Cup meeting. No hard-luck stories, the best on the day won. Japan won the Big One with Victoire Pisa, and there is so much we can talk about regarding this as we go down memory lane. El Condor Pasa gave a glimpse of their rise in the thoroughbred world by nearly winning the Arc. Heart's Cry confirmed their deep talent by winning the Schema Classic. Deep Impact almost put them on top of the world in an ill-fated Arc attempt. Delta Blues and Pop Rock gave them the big breakthrough in the Melbourne Cup. And now Victoire Pisa and Transcend won them the richest race of them all. Fantastic! and I hope there is more to come from the land of the Rising Sun.
Looking at my recommendations, all bar one of them (Gio Ponti/Musir) were correct, and the Place couplings were good as at least one of the horses made the frame (Rocket Man, River Jetez, Mahbooba) at favourable odds. This is how my 10 predictions came through;
1. Bad one to start with. Gio Ponti and Musir were close but ended up 5th and 7th. I thought for a moment that Gio Ponti would win it as he entered the straight menacingly on the outside, but his turn of foot couldn't make the difference as the leaders had enough in the tank with the slow pace. Both were not outclassed but were not good enough on the night.
2. Good lay prediction on Cape Blanco, but just. Cape Blanco ran a brilliant race to come out 4th. He surprised me and almost made me eat my words! I have renewed respect for him.
3. It was always going to be a long shot with Irish Flame as I mentioned.
4. The Duty Free did not go to one of the mares but River Jetez ran as expected but fell to another brilliant horse in Presvis. Raihana was the unlucky story of the race as she couldn't find a clear run in the straight. Had she done so, I think she would have finished 3rd.
5. No contest for Rocket Man there.
6. Mahbooba was in the first 3 as mentioned. Reem was out of it, but overall, great coupling for a Place.
7. The lay on Mendip was spot-on as it was always going to be difficult for him on grass. This horse should rather be tried on dirt in America or stay on the synthetic. I don't know why Godolphin didn't enter him in the DWC itself.
8. De Kock had a good night with a few Place earnings, but failed to win a race. So a "huge" night was overstating it.
9. Godolphin won the races that were mentioned they were most apt to win; the Mile, the UAE Derby and the Scheema Classic. All the stars came aligned on the night on the night for them to win all three. This Khawlah is a filly to follow in England. Same bloodlines as Sea the Stars, so this explains a lot about her abilities.
10. I hope you enjoyed the meeting, I thought it was the best of the past few years!
Before I end this topic, I'm reading the jockey comments concerning the DWC race and a few of them are plainly complaining about the lack of pace in the race doing their mount no favours. From Soumillon (Musir), to Shea (Golden Sword) to Dominguez (Gio Ponti), they are "wishing" the pace could have been quicker. I'm no jockey, but for any punter, it's unnerving to hear such things; if they thought the pace was unsuitable during the race, wouldn't it have made sense to do something about it rather than sit still? Or were they tactically bound to stay put? Being free on the outside, Shea and Dominguez had every chance to make a move but didn't. Demuro on Victoire Pisa made his move to control the race despite an early setback, and the result is a victory that is down to the jockey's tactical prowess as well as alertness.
Finally, I'm amusingly reading about Rooney's yellow card during the Wales v/s England, which rules him out of the next Euro qualifier game. I'm ok with Capello usually reminding offenders before the match whenever they are one yellow card away from suspension. Does him failing to do so, excuse the fact that Rooney did not know about this significant detail entering the game? These footballers are supposed to be "professional"... I think Rooney is an awesome player, but what kind of things going on in a footballer's mind that explains missing something as important as this?
Have a good week!
Showing posts with label River Jetez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label River Jetez. Show all posts
Monday, March 28, 2011
Friday, March 25, 2011
10 Predictions for Dubai World Cup Night
One more day to go before the big night at Meydan. The fields are competitive and there are definitely no clear-cut banker or sure winner to hand pick. Luck in running will be a factor. Here are my 10 predictions for the night, along with some recommendations.
1. In the big race, Gio Ponti and Musir will be in the first 3. It will still pay if you go for Gio Ponti and Musir to Place (couple), and only one of the two actually does. So I recommend both to Place. My assessment on Gio Ponti on a post a couple of days ago hasn't changed and I think he'll run a big race. Musir's colors were dampened after being beaten by Twice Over, but any lack of true pace in the race will play in his favour. He's got speed, class, courage, and will be in the thereabouts at the finish.
2. According to bookmakers, Cape Blanco is second-favourite. For me, he's massively overpriced and won't even make it in the first 3. First time on Tapeta, no prep run, that's a lot of asking for a decent Group 1 horse who is no superstar. He's the first big lay (I have another one below).
3. Irish Flame can spring an upset in the Scheema Classic. The South African champion has been disappointing in his 3 runs in Meydan, but will be sporting blinkers for the first time (according to his jockey, Kevin Shea, he's acting better with it). It remains to be seen if that makes a massive difference for him, but looking at the field, if he runs to the best of his ability, he could be a danger. A Place chance, but only for those who fancy a long-shot punt.
4. Going back to my post yesterday, the Duty Free will go to a mare. It will be between River Jetez, Raihana and Strawberrydaiquiri. My mind hasn't changed; in fact Mike de Kock's comments that his 2 representatives are flying, are all the more encouraging. All 3 recommended to Place, and if only River Jetez places at her current odds, it will be like money-back. If any one or both of the other 2 Place, the returns are huge at their current odds.
5. Rocket Man will Place. That looks certain and a safe recommended punt. Chances are that he will win it altogether.
6. Mahbooba and Reem will be at the finish. At their current odds, a Place on both will pay dividends even if only one of them Places. So a couple Place on both is recommended.
7. Mendip will not win the Duty Free. He's never run on turf, he's by Harlan's holiday with a dirt pedigree, he's already been bested by Raihana (and Musir) last year in his only defeat to date. He's massively overpriced and is a big lay.
8. Mike de Kock will have a huge night. From the above, it's obvious that I'm thinking he's got great chances in at least 2-3 races.
9. Godolphin will win one or two races; either with Rileyskeepingfaith in the Godolphin Mile, and/or Khawlah in the UAE Derby. Rewilding is their next best chance but I think he might be found wanting without a prep race, although the connections are keen to point that he runs very well fresh.
10. Above all, enjoy this racing night. Of all my recommendations above, only the Place on Rocket Man at #5 is the safe one by the principles that I adhere to on this blog. Because of the competitive nature of the race cards, the returns are big if the other ones come in good, that's why I'm giving them out (Plus it's DWC night, I'm relaxing my rules this once). So, I suggest using the cautionary mantra "only punt what you can afford to lose" on the other recommendations, in hope of a nice return.
Place: Rocket Man, Gio Ponti/Musir, River Jetez/ Raihana/ Strawberrydaiquiri, Mahbooba/Reem
1. In the big race, Gio Ponti and Musir will be in the first 3. It will still pay if you go for Gio Ponti and Musir to Place (couple), and only one of the two actually does. So I recommend both to Place. My assessment on Gio Ponti on a post a couple of days ago hasn't changed and I think he'll run a big race. Musir's colors were dampened after being beaten by Twice Over, but any lack of true pace in the race will play in his favour. He's got speed, class, courage, and will be in the thereabouts at the finish.
2. According to bookmakers, Cape Blanco is second-favourite. For me, he's massively overpriced and won't even make it in the first 3. First time on Tapeta, no prep run, that's a lot of asking for a decent Group 1 horse who is no superstar. He's the first big lay (I have another one below).
3. Irish Flame can spring an upset in the Scheema Classic. The South African champion has been disappointing in his 3 runs in Meydan, but will be sporting blinkers for the first time (according to his jockey, Kevin Shea, he's acting better with it). It remains to be seen if that makes a massive difference for him, but looking at the field, if he runs to the best of his ability, he could be a danger. A Place chance, but only for those who fancy a long-shot punt.
4. Going back to my post yesterday, the Duty Free will go to a mare. It will be between River Jetez, Raihana and Strawberrydaiquiri. My mind hasn't changed; in fact Mike de Kock's comments that his 2 representatives are flying, are all the more encouraging. All 3 recommended to Place, and if only River Jetez places at her current odds, it will be like money-back. If any one or both of the other 2 Place, the returns are huge at their current odds.
5. Rocket Man will Place. That looks certain and a safe recommended punt. Chances are that he will win it altogether.
6. Mahbooba and Reem will be at the finish. At their current odds, a Place on both will pay dividends even if only one of them Places. So a couple Place on both is recommended.
7. Mendip will not win the Duty Free. He's never run on turf, he's by Harlan's holiday with a dirt pedigree, he's already been bested by Raihana (and Musir) last year in his only defeat to date. He's massively overpriced and is a big lay.
8. Mike de Kock will have a huge night. From the above, it's obvious that I'm thinking he's got great chances in at least 2-3 races.
9. Godolphin will win one or two races; either with Rileyskeepingfaith in the Godolphin Mile, and/or Khawlah in the UAE Derby. Rewilding is their next best chance but I think he might be found wanting without a prep race, although the connections are keen to point that he runs very well fresh.
10. Above all, enjoy this racing night. Of all my recommendations above, only the Place on Rocket Man at #5 is the safe one by the principles that I adhere to on this blog. Because of the competitive nature of the race cards, the returns are big if the other ones come in good, that's why I'm giving them out (Plus it's DWC night, I'm relaxing my rules this once). So, I suggest using the cautionary mantra "only punt what you can afford to lose" on the other recommendations, in hope of a nice return.
Place: Rocket Man, Gio Ponti/Musir, River Jetez/ Raihana/ Strawberrydaiquiri, Mahbooba/Reem
Thursday, March 24, 2011
Shades of Ipi Tombe
When I look at the race card for the Dubai Duty Free at Meydan on Saturday, I can't help thinking about Ipi Tombe, possibly its greatest winner. This is the mare that put Mike de Kock on the international map by winning this Group 1 race in 2003. In my opinion, the winner on Saturday will come out of the trio of mares that are entered in that race; River Jetez, Raihana, and Strawberrydaiquiri. Sorry colts, it seems to me the mares are stronger.
River Jetez has acclimatized well in Dubai and has 2 strong runs behind her. She should have won both of the races and it's well documented how she was unlucky in her first race. Her second race was impressive, and she showed a turn of foot (like brother Pocket Power) in the straight to win quite comfortably. She always gives the impression that she does her best. The only question mark for me is her jockey Faydherbe, who is her regular rider in South Africa, but who does not seem to have much experience at the Meydan track. If he does not get the mare caught into traffic, she has a major chance.
Raihana thrives in Dubai and also always gives a honest account of herself. The distance will suit her and because she's always in the whereabouts at the finish line, it's hard to overlook her. She definitely has Place claims and with luck in running, might win the race altogether.
Strawberrydaiquiri is for me, the dark horse of the race. On her Meydan debut, she was squeezed and checked twice in the straight and still finished 5th behind River Jetez. Without her traffic problems, she would have been much closer than the 4.5 lengths that separated the two. The experience of Johhny Murtagh will help and I think she's overly over-priced and can easily cause a shock.
What about the colts, you say? While Mendip is a proven Carnival winner on Tapeta, he's untried and unproven on turf. He's by Harlan Holiday, so I would not get too over excited about him running on turf. If he acts on it, then he can play a role, but that is too much speculation. Wigmore Hall is a good horse but the distance is on the short side for him. Presvis and Ryan Moore form a formidable duo and can take the spoils if they don't meet traffic as they usually do.
At this point, I really see the mares playing major roles in this one, and I'll wait for the trainers' comments until Friday to have an idea on their form and condition etc, and make a final decision on the recommendations.
River Jetez has acclimatized well in Dubai and has 2 strong runs behind her. She should have won both of the races and it's well documented how she was unlucky in her first race. Her second race was impressive, and she showed a turn of foot (like brother Pocket Power) in the straight to win quite comfortably. She always gives the impression that she does her best. The only question mark for me is her jockey Faydherbe, who is her regular rider in South Africa, but who does not seem to have much experience at the Meydan track. If he does not get the mare caught into traffic, she has a major chance.
Raihana thrives in Dubai and also always gives a honest account of herself. The distance will suit her and because she's always in the whereabouts at the finish line, it's hard to overlook her. She definitely has Place claims and with luck in running, might win the race altogether.
Strawberrydaiquiri is for me, the dark horse of the race. On her Meydan debut, she was squeezed and checked twice in the straight and still finished 5th behind River Jetez. Without her traffic problems, she would have been much closer than the 4.5 lengths that separated the two. The experience of Johhny Murtagh will help and I think she's overly over-priced and can easily cause a shock.
What about the colts, you say? While Mendip is a proven Carnival winner on Tapeta, he's untried and unproven on turf. He's by Harlan Holiday, so I would not get too over excited about him running on turf. If he acts on it, then he can play a role, but that is too much speculation. Wigmore Hall is a good horse but the distance is on the short side for him. Presvis and Ryan Moore form a formidable duo and can take the spoils if they don't meet traffic as they usually do.
At this point, I really see the mares playing major roles in this one, and I'll wait for the trainers' comments until Friday to have an idea on their form and condition etc, and make a final decision on the recommendations.
Friday, February 25, 2011
Week-end Preview
On Thursday, Man City won its Europa league game but had a couple of disappointing results at Meydan. In the first race, Hunting Tower was most unlucky not to get the passage in the straight orelse it would have easily been in the Place money. Soumillon tried to sneak on the inside to no avail, just like his first ride on River Jetez a few weeks back. I mentioned in my preview that stablemate Wonder Lawn was a danger, and at 10/1 duly won the race. Mahbooba came out second in the UAE Oaks. The winner, Khawla, from Godolphin stable, was most impressive, as she won after months of layoff. She has caught my eye with her pedigree as her great-grandma is Urban Sea, and her sire is Cape Cross. So she is bred on extremely similar lines to Sea the Stars! So she's definitely one to follow when she tackles the big English races in a few months time.
There are some good value punts coming up this week-end. In the Premier League, I like Aston Villa's chances against Blackburn. I recommend a draw-no-bet on the Villains who will view this match as a must-win to ease their relegation fears.I also like Man Utd's chances as they visit Wigan. The Latics have never snatched a point from the Red Devils since they have entered the top flight. It will be a chance to see if the Red Devils are starting to huff and puff after below-par performances against Crawley and Marseille. I don't think they will lose this game, so recommend them as draw-no-bet as well. In the Carling Cup final, it's hard to go against Arsenal even though they look like they will be missing Walcott and Fabregas. It looks like they will have too much fire-power for Birmingham. I don't know if the Gunners will need extra-time to win the game, but I fancy their chances of lifting the trophy at the end. So a Final Win for the Gunners is recommended.
In Spain, big tests await Barcelona and Real Madrid. Everyone is talking of a Barcelona mini-slump, and winning convincingly at Mallorca will put this theory to rest. I think they will either win or draw, so a draw-no-bet on the visitors is the recommendation. Real Madrd travel to Deportivo La Coruna who are not the force they used to be in recent years. Real Madrid as draw-no-bet looks safe and is recommended.
CC Final win: Arsenal
There are some good value punts coming up this week-end. In the Premier League, I like Aston Villa's chances against Blackburn. I recommend a draw-no-bet on the Villains who will view this match as a must-win to ease their relegation fears.I also like Man Utd's chances as they visit Wigan. The Latics have never snatched a point from the Red Devils since they have entered the top flight. It will be a chance to see if the Red Devils are starting to huff and puff after below-par performances against Crawley and Marseille. I don't think they will lose this game, so recommend them as draw-no-bet as well. In the Carling Cup final, it's hard to go against Arsenal even though they look like they will be missing Walcott and Fabregas. It looks like they will have too much fire-power for Birmingham. I don't know if the Gunners will need extra-time to win the game, but I fancy their chances of lifting the trophy at the end. So a Final Win for the Gunners is recommended.
In Spain, big tests await Barcelona and Real Madrid. Everyone is talking of a Barcelona mini-slump, and winning convincingly at Mallorca will put this theory to rest. I think they will either win or draw, so a draw-no-bet on the visitors is the recommendation. Real Madrd travel to Deportivo La Coruna who are not the force they used to be in recent years. Real Madrid as draw-no-bet looks safe and is recommended.
CC Final win: Arsenal
Draw-no-bet: Aston Villa, Man Utd, Barcelona, Real Madrid.
Friday, February 18, 2011
Week-end Football Preview
River Jetez won and Here To Win came out placed for 3rd. So all 3 recommendations for the Friday card at Meydan, won. For those who are not aware, the Dubai Carnival races are shown live free on the Daily Racing Form website (the U.S equivalent of the Racing Post), at www.drf.com.
The FA Cup takes centre-stage this week-end in England. There are bound to be surprises as usual, but I don't think non-leaguers Crawley can spring one at Old Trafford. It just won't happen. I think I mentioned earlier that I don't like analyzing FA Cup matches because league form does not play a substantial role in there, and it's hard to formulate an informed analysis. Good thing that the other leagues have something on offer.
In Spain, Barcelona cannot afford any more missteps for fear of shifting any momentum back to Real Madrid. They host Athletic Bilbao and should be winning this game. I expect Real Madrd to do the same against Levante, so I recommend both leaders as Wins. I also like Valencia and Villareal to do well at home, and are fancied as draw-no-bets against average Sporting Gijon and Malaga.
In Germany, Borussia Dortmund is another good draw-no-bet against St Pauli, who won in midweek against Hamburg. Mainz host Bayern Munich, and the hosts are really laboring currently. This might be a good opportunity for Bayern to climb the table, and I fancy a draw-no-bet for the visitors.
In Italy, Inter should have too much firepower at home to Cagliari. Leonardo's men went to win in Fiorentina and because of their midweek exertions, a draw-no-bet on them is a safer bet. I like Lazio's chances as it hosts Bari as well as Napoli's chances against Catania. I like both of the hosts as draw-no-bet punts.
Win: Barcelona, Madrid
Draw-no-bet: Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Inter, Napoli, Lazio
The FA Cup takes centre-stage this week-end in England. There are bound to be surprises as usual, but I don't think non-leaguers Crawley can spring one at Old Trafford. It just won't happen. I think I mentioned earlier that I don't like analyzing FA Cup matches because league form does not play a substantial role in there, and it's hard to formulate an informed analysis. Good thing that the other leagues have something on offer.
In Spain, Barcelona cannot afford any more missteps for fear of shifting any momentum back to Real Madrid. They host Athletic Bilbao and should be winning this game. I expect Real Madrd to do the same against Levante, so I recommend both leaders as Wins. I also like Valencia and Villareal to do well at home, and are fancied as draw-no-bets against average Sporting Gijon and Malaga.
In Germany, Borussia Dortmund is another good draw-no-bet against St Pauli, who won in midweek against Hamburg. Mainz host Bayern Munich, and the hosts are really laboring currently. This might be a good opportunity for Bayern to climb the table, and I fancy a draw-no-bet for the visitors.
In Italy, Inter should have too much firepower at home to Cagliari. Leonardo's men went to win in Fiorentina and because of their midweek exertions, a draw-no-bet on them is a safer bet. I like Lazio's chances as it hosts Bari as well as Napoli's chances against Catania. I like both of the hosts as draw-no-bet punts.
Win: Barcelona, Madrid
Draw-no-bet: Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Inter, Napoli, Lazio
Thursday, February 17, 2011
High expectations for River Jetez
A winning Place recommendation at Southwell today as Jack's Revenge came out second.
Tomorrow Friday is the second leg of a double-header at Meydan. I have 2 de Kock horses to follow very closely; the first obvious one is River Jetez who was unlucky not to win her last race. If she does not encounter any hard luck in the race, she will definitely be in the first 3. In fact, this race represents a great winning opportunity for her. Since she's better than odds-on, I recommend her for a Win and Place. The other horse I like is Here To Win, which was a disappointing beaten favourite her last time out. Tomorrow will be her first foray on the all-weather surface, but she seems to be doing really well on it according to the trainer. If she runs to her true potential, the competition should be within her grasp. Mike de Kock seems bullish on her as well, so I recommend her as a Place.
Win: River Jetez
Place: River Jetez, Here To Win
Tomorrow Friday is the second leg of a double-header at Meydan. I have 2 de Kock horses to follow very closely; the first obvious one is River Jetez who was unlucky not to win her last race. If she does not encounter any hard luck in the race, she will definitely be in the first 3. In fact, this race represents a great winning opportunity for her. Since she's better than odds-on, I recommend her for a Win and Place. The other horse I like is Here To Win, which was a disappointing beaten favourite her last time out. Tomorrow will be her first foray on the all-weather surface, but she seems to be doing really well on it according to the trainer. If she runs to her true potential, the competition should be within her grasp. Mike de Kock seems bullish on her as well, so I recommend her as a Place.
Win: River Jetez
Place: River Jetez, Here To Win
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Southwell preview
I watched Arsenal beat Barcelona 2-1 but the away goal might be decisive for Barcelona to go through to the next round. At mid-way point of the second-half before Arsenal scored, Barcelona was so dominant that they were toying with the young Gunners. It was men against boys really and the one goal score was flattering to the Gunners at that stage, I thought. Then, the Spaniards went through a crazy 10-minute spell whereby they conceded those 2 goals. Was it arrogance or over-confidence? This will make for an interesting second leg, and based on what I saw, Arsenal will have a mountain to climb to go get a result at the Nou Camp.
Tomorrow is racing day at Meydan, but surprisingly the racing card looks really dull compared to the previous ones in terms of quality. The races seem highly competitive though, and I think best to wait for the Friday card where I am waiting the return of River Jetez with much anticipation. I'll get back to her race tomorrow.
Instead of Meydan, let's focus on the Southwell race card, and I like Jack's revenge in the first race. The son of Footstepsinthesand easily won on at this course and distance 9 days ago, and he looks good for a repeat. I think the main danger will come from Ace Master, himself a course winner at 7 furlongs a couple of days ago. A Place bet on Jack's Revenge is the recommendation.
Place: Jack's Revenge
Tomorrow is racing day at Meydan, but surprisingly the racing card looks really dull compared to the previous ones in terms of quality. The races seem highly competitive though, and I think best to wait for the Friday card where I am waiting the return of River Jetez with much anticipation. I'll get back to her race tomorrow.
Instead of Meydan, let's focus on the Southwell race card, and I like Jack's revenge in the first race. The son of Footstepsinthesand easily won on at this course and distance 9 days ago, and he looks good for a repeat. I think the main danger will come from Ace Master, himself a course winner at 7 furlongs a couple of days ago. A Place bet on Jack's Revenge is the recommendation.
Place: Jack's Revenge
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Great horses of a lifetime...
Both of Thursday predictions won. Milan easily won against Bari and advanced to the next stage of the Coppa Italia and at Meydan, River Jetez was placed 3rd in her race.
The South African filly was very unlucky not to actually win her race as she was short of room at the rails. It reminded me very much a race at Meydan last year with Japanese champion Vodka also being stuck on the inside rails in a race she should have won. Anyway, River Jetez is certainly one to follow as the Carnival progresses. Also to follow is Godolphin's Simon de Montfort who won his race quite handily under Kieren Fallon; as I was writing in my previous post, this is a very classy colt and he does not seem to have lost any of his turn of foot. Godolphin and Mike de Kock are dominating proceedings as I mentioned they would, which is hopefully a good omen for my recommendations as long as I can pick their right horses.
I can't see anything of punting value for Friday. Japan is playing hosts Qatar in the Asian Cup in what should be an interesting match. The Australian Open is in full swing, and in my opinion, Nadal will at least reach the final. No punting or recommendations on this though as I haven't spent time assessing the main candidates to the trophy. I would think it will be between Nadal, Fed and Murray, but that's quite stating the obvious. No, I'm just bracing myself for this week-end's football and racing; in the meantime I'll finally go watch Secretariat the movie. I don't know much about the great horse besides it winning the Triple Crown and winning the Belmont by oh-so-many lengths, that seemed to have made its legend. Ahh, champion thoroughbreds... If I can leave the reality of punting a little bit, and fancy a 12-furlong race on a non-biased synthetic surface (say Meydan)...The Americans would bring Secretariat and Zenyatta, the British would come with Sea The Stars and Dancing Brave, the French with Zarkava and Peintre Celebre, the Japanese with Deep Impact, the South Americans with Invasor, the South Africans with Horse Chestnut and Pocket Power, the Australasians with So You Think and Makybe Diva, and the mighty Ribot would come for the Italians ... A wonder race for the ages... My trifecta would be... Sea The Stars, Deep Impact and Zarkava! and I am sure my selection will not be unanimous among other racing fans.
Ok, I'm off go to watch the movie about the great Secretariat...
The South African filly was very unlucky not to actually win her race as she was short of room at the rails. It reminded me very much a race at Meydan last year with Japanese champion Vodka also being stuck on the inside rails in a race she should have won. Anyway, River Jetez is certainly one to follow as the Carnival progresses. Also to follow is Godolphin's Simon de Montfort who won his race quite handily under Kieren Fallon; as I was writing in my previous post, this is a very classy colt and he does not seem to have lost any of his turn of foot. Godolphin and Mike de Kock are dominating proceedings as I mentioned they would, which is hopefully a good omen for my recommendations as long as I can pick their right horses.
I can't see anything of punting value for Friday. Japan is playing hosts Qatar in the Asian Cup in what should be an interesting match. The Australian Open is in full swing, and in my opinion, Nadal will at least reach the final. No punting or recommendations on this though as I haven't spent time assessing the main candidates to the trophy. I would think it will be between Nadal, Fed and Murray, but that's quite stating the obvious. No, I'm just bracing myself for this week-end's football and racing; in the meantime I'll finally go watch Secretariat the movie. I don't know much about the great horse besides it winning the Triple Crown and winning the Belmont by oh-so-many lengths, that seemed to have made its legend. Ahh, champion thoroughbreds... If I can leave the reality of punting a little bit, and fancy a 12-furlong race on a non-biased synthetic surface (say Meydan)...The Americans would bring Secretariat and Zenyatta, the British would come with Sea The Stars and Dancing Brave, the French with Zarkava and Peintre Celebre, the Japanese with Deep Impact, the South Americans with Invasor, the South Africans with Horse Chestnut and Pocket Power, the Australasians with So You Think and Makybe Diva, and the mighty Ribot would come for the Italians ... A wonder race for the ages... My trifecta would be... Sea The Stars, Deep Impact and Zarkava! and I am sure my selection will not be unanimous among other racing fans.
Ok, I'm off go to watch the movie about the great Secretariat...
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
Coppa Italia and Meydan
Inter confirmed predictions by winning against Cesena. It was actually a more difficult win than expected, and Cesena did have their chances to tie up the game. The visitors were dangerous on some occasions while playing with 10 men! I suppose this Inter team is still finding its feet with Leonardo.
Remaining in Italian football on Thursday, Milan host Bari in the Coppa Italia. It's really first against last place teams in Serie A and I will be tremendously surprised if Bari can win this encounter. Milan will field a strong team, and Bari will be more preoccupied with Saturday's league game to stave off relegation. I cannot see Milan losing this game in 90 minutes, so I recommend them as draw-no-bet.
Back to racing in Meydan and another really competitive race card on the agenda. In the 17:45 race, I like River Jetez, who's under the de Kock care for the festival. The full sister to Pocket Power seems to be training really well according to her trainer, so I can see her finishing in the first 3 in a field that seems not up to par with her abilities. Depending her form and fitness, she could very well win this, but I'll recommend the safe Place option on her.
In the last race, it will be interesting to see the return of Simon de Montfort. I think at his best, this colt has a ton of ability with a superb turn of foot. No recommendations on him, it will mainly for my knowledge base to see whether he's still the classy horse that gave out a lot of promise during the early part of the last season in France. There are some very good sorts in that race as well, in Peligroso and Zeitoper for what makes a very competitive handicap indeed.
Draw-no-bet: Milan
Place: River Jetez
Remaining in Italian football on Thursday, Milan host Bari in the Coppa Italia. It's really first against last place teams in Serie A and I will be tremendously surprised if Bari can win this encounter. Milan will field a strong team, and Bari will be more preoccupied with Saturday's league game to stave off relegation. I cannot see Milan losing this game in 90 minutes, so I recommend them as draw-no-bet.
Back to racing in Meydan and another really competitive race card on the agenda. In the 17:45 race, I like River Jetez, who's under the de Kock care for the festival. The full sister to Pocket Power seems to be training really well according to her trainer, so I can see her finishing in the first 3 in a field that seems not up to par with her abilities. Depending her form and fitness, she could very well win this, but I'll recommend the safe Place option on her.
In the last race, it will be interesting to see the return of Simon de Montfort. I think at his best, this colt has a ton of ability with a superb turn of foot. No recommendations on him, it will mainly for my knowledge base to see whether he's still the classy horse that gave out a lot of promise during the early part of the last season in France. There are some very good sorts in that race as well, in Peligroso and Zeitoper for what makes a very competitive handicap indeed.
Draw-no-bet: Milan
Place: River Jetez
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Let the Dubai Carnival start
A totally lacklustre Arsenal side lost at Ipswich for an absolutely shocking result! I wonder what excuses Wenger will come out with this time... No excuses from me; my bad for having a totally misplaced faith in a team that does not seem to have the hunger to win when being under pressure, and giving out a bad recommendation on them. This result is as disappointing as they come. Fortunately "trusty" Barcelona easily won against Betis and limited the damage. Messi got another hat-trick and it's just amazing how easily he and Ronaldo are racking up hat-tricks. We are at a unique moment in the history of football where two phenomenons are at the peaks of their powers at the same time, and leaving everything in their wake. Whether you're a Madrid or Barcelona fan or none, it's just time to sit back and enjoy that spectacle.
Let's talk racing now and I'm pretty excited as the Dubai Carnival gets underway at Meydan on Thursday. From a punting point of view, the racing over there can be very hard to assess for many reasons; the horses are coming in from a long break and therefore it is hard to gauge their actual form and fitness, particularly during the first meetings; it's also difficult to handicap many of the horses because they come from different places such as South America, South Africa, Europe etc; finally, the fields are usually very big and tactics and draw play an important role in the outcome of the races. Still, the main appeal of Dubai racing for me, is that Godolphin and Mike de Kock have been overly dominant for the past years, and I find value in identifying races where the horses from those 2 yards run against unmatched rivals. Easier said than done, but as long as this trend of domination continues, I think it will pay to follow those 2 powerful stables very closely. For, this year in particular, Mike de Kock is bringing his strongest team yet, with the likes of River Jetez, Our Giant, Irish Flame, Bold Silvano etc, as the big guy really wants to win the big race(Dubai World Cup) which so closely elluded him last year.
Consistent with my approach of avoiding punts where there are too many question marks, I will abstain from giving a recommendation on this first meeting. Tomorrow will be more a learning exercise as to which horses are already on song, which ones are nicely coming along, and which ones are close to or past their sell-by date.
Let's talk racing now and I'm pretty excited as the Dubai Carnival gets underway at Meydan on Thursday. From a punting point of view, the racing over there can be very hard to assess for many reasons; the horses are coming in from a long break and therefore it is hard to gauge their actual form and fitness, particularly during the first meetings; it's also difficult to handicap many of the horses because they come from different places such as South America, South Africa, Europe etc; finally, the fields are usually very big and tactics and draw play an important role in the outcome of the races. Still, the main appeal of Dubai racing for me, is that Godolphin and Mike de Kock have been overly dominant for the past years, and I find value in identifying races where the horses from those 2 yards run against unmatched rivals. Easier said than done, but as long as this trend of domination continues, I think it will pay to follow those 2 powerful stables very closely. For, this year in particular, Mike de Kock is bringing his strongest team yet, with the likes of River Jetez, Our Giant, Irish Flame, Bold Silvano etc, as the big guy really wants to win the big race(Dubai World Cup) which so closely elluded him last year.
Consistent with my approach of avoiding punts where there are too many question marks, I will abstain from giving a recommendation on this first meeting. Tomorrow will be more a learning exercise as to which horses are already on song, which ones are nicely coming along, and which ones are close to or past their sell-by date.
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