Friday, October 26, 2018

EPL 2018/19 - Week 10

Brighton v/s Wolves - Home
Fulham v/s Bournemouth - Away
Liverpool v/s Cardiff - Home
Southampton v/s Newcastle - Home
Watford v/s Huddersfield - Home
Leicester v/s West Ham - Home
Burnley v/s Chelsea - Draw
Crystal Palace v/s Arsenal - Away
Man Utd v/s Everton - Home
Tottenham v/s Man City - Away

Accumulator Win: Liverpool/Man City/Watford/Man Utd

Friday, October 19, 2018

EPL 2018/19 - Week 9

Chelsea v/s Man Utd - Home
Bournemouth v/s Southampton - Draw
Cardiff v/s Fulham - Away
Man City v/s Burnley - Home
Newcastle v/s Brighton - Home
West Ham v/s Tottenham - Draw
Wolves v/s Watford - Home
Huddersfield v/s Liverpool - Away
Everton v/s Crystal Palace - Draw
Arsenal v/s Leicester - Away

Just a quick note here. I will go for a Man City/Liverpool/Leicester accumulator as value punt of the week. Man City is a banker to win, Liverpool should be too strong for Huddersfield and Leicester has the capacity to stun the Gunners who although are on a good run, have shown defensive weaknesses that can be exploited by the Foxes.

Accumulator: Man City/Liverpool/Leicester

Saturday, October 6, 2018

Arc de Triomphe 2018 - Enable on the steps of Treve

All questions revolve around Enable in this year's Arc. If the reigning champion is anywhere near the maximum of her powers, she should crush the field at Longchamp. How she overcomes the dreaded "bounce factor", the theory that a horse that runs well after a long lay-off will run badly on their second run, will be the main determinant of the result of the race. She came back from injury in the most comforting of fashions by easily overcoming top-class Crystal Ocean on the synthetic track of Kempton a few weeks ago. My belief is that her class will tell and that she will emulate Treve and win her second Arc. 

Of the rest, I will pick possibly the next filly superstar in Sea of Class and the trio of Fabre runners in Waldgeist, Cloth of Stars and Talismanic. Sea of Class has been supplemented for the race and looks set to be a major force in the middle distance division, male and distaff, next year. She will benefit of the all-important 3-pound allowance but her outside draw and the soft conditions will play against her. She can definitely place in the first 3 though.

Fabre has a strong-hand in his 3 horses and were it not to the 2 above-mentioned fillies, he would have been in a great nick to win the Arc for the 8th time. Waldgeist looks his best chance as this son of Galileo has won his last 4 races and beaten his 2 other stablemates in the Prix Foy. The German star should be at the finish. Cloth of Stars came second to Enable last year and seems to have gotten in better form over the course of the year. He definitely has the class to place again. Finally, Talismanic is certainly able to pick up the pieces should Enable fail to fire. The soft ground might play against him as his best form is on quick ground.

Win: Enable
Place: Sea of Class, Waldgeist
Top 5: Talismanic, Cloth of Stars

Thursday, October 4, 2018

EPL 2018/19 - Week 8

Brighton v/s West Ham - Away
Burnley v/s Huddersfield - Home
Crystal Palace v/s Wolves - Home
Leicester v/s Everton - Home
Tottenham v/s Cardiff - Home
Watford v/s Bournemouth - Home
Man Utd v/s Newcastle - Home
Fulham v/s Arsenal - Away
Southampton v/s Chelsea - Away
Liverpool v/s Man City - Away

West Ham seem to have turned a corner and I see them getting the full points on their away trip to Brighton. Much has been said after Man Utd's woes but the Hammers were convincing in their win against the Red Devils last week. Pellegrini has righted the ship and I expect them to steadily climb up the standings.

I see value in pouncing on the accumulator on the following home teams: Burnley, Leicester, Tottenham and Man Utd. The gap with the visiting teams are enough for those teams to warrant comprehensive wins.

I also see Crystal Palace as a value draw-no-bet option against visiting Wolves. The Eagles usually keep matches close and they will be hard to beat at home. Wolves have been overachieving since the start and will be expected to give a good account of themselves and I expect Palace's odds to be higher as a result. The home team should either win or draw this match.

Win: West Ham
Win accumulator: Burnley/Leicester/Tottenham/Man Utd
Draw-no-bet: Crystal Palace