Sports Galore - Derbies, UCL and French Open

A supremely jam-packed week-end of sports is on the horizon.

The most captivating one of the action is probably the Belmont Stakes where American Pharaoh will try to enter US racing folklore by winning the Triple Crown. He is clearly the best colt of his generation and I can see only two in the field that could potentially stop his way to racing immortality; Mubtaahij and Frosted. The former is the UAE Derby winner and although he did honorably in the Kentucky Derby by finishing eighth, he looked rather one pace. He will most probably be in a better disposition for Sarurday's Classic as his preparations have gone smoother and he's been in the surroundings for about 3 weeks. If the Pharaoh does not fire, Mubtaahij should be here to pick up the pieces. Frosted, I believe, is the main threat to Baffert's colt. The way he finished at Churchill Downs leads me to believe that the one and a half mile of the Belmont will be to his advantage. The Godophin representative has the advantage of having bypassed the Preakness, thus will be freshened up for the race. Pharaoh should have no problem with the distance. He is the classiest of the bunch. My only issue with him, as with any horse that has gone through the gruelling Triple Crown series, is his freshness. The last furlong or so of the race will be the toughest of his life. That's where his heart and courage will count, but most importantly his chances will heavily depend on how the other contenders are coping with the race and distance. That's where Frosted and Mubtaahij come into play. For selections, I cannot see Pharaoh out of the placings, so he's a banker place punt. I think with some luck, he can win as well. He's by far the likeliest Triple Crown I can think of in a long long time. 

The real Derby takes place at Epsom and I can only see 3 horses playing major roles here; Golden Horn, Jack Hobbs and Hans Holbein. Golden Horn is the unbeaten favourite and he looks the ideal type for the undulations of Epsom. He settles beautifully in his races and the manner he disposed of many of Saturday's rivals in the Dante, makes him hard to oppose. My only possible negative is that his pedigree does not scream stamina, so he might be stretched out in the last furlong. Being by Cape Cross and a mare of Dubai Destination seems to make this high-class colt best suited for races of 10 furlongs. Still, he's the clear deserved favourite. Stablemate Jack Hobbs could be his main danger. The son of Halling lost his invincibility to Golden Horn in the Dante after impressive earlier wins. There should be no stamina problems in his pedigree but the fact that Golden Horn beat him so impressively in their last encounter makes it impossible to look for a reverse in placings unless there has been a spectacular progress in this 3-weeks span on his part. Finally, Hans Holbein is the winner of the Chester Vase and will have no issue with the distance being a son of Montjeu. However, he looks to be Ballydoyle's third string as Ryan Moore and JP O'Brien have selected Giovanni Canaletto and Kilimanjaro respectively. A place punt on Hans Holbein might be more realistic but still profitable. Golden Horn is the pick to win it at the finish.

French Open tennis and I expect Djokovic to first finish up with Murray in their resumed semi-final match. Then, he will probably face his toughest match of the tournament against Wawrinka, but he should have enough in the tank to see it through as well. Nole to be on top of the world on Sunday.

Finally, Champions League football at its nirvana with Barcelona taking on Juventus, the winner seeing the coronation of a perfect season a.k.a the much coveted Treble. It seems mostly everyone is on the Barcelona bandwagon but I don't think it's a done deal by any means. Sure, the Catalans boast the incredible front-line of Messi, Suarez and Neymar that can score at any time. Juventus are not that good at the back and with the last-minute defection of main central defender Chellini, they look sure to be scored against. However, the Italians cannot be dismissed lightly and if the score is still level in the late stages, it won't be surprising if they are the ones making a breakthrough. It might be fool-hardy to go against Barcelona and Messi but their odds are mightily too short against opponents that are by no-means second-string. If a choice is to be made, Barcelona be it.

Unstoppable

With Nadal mastered, the next road block to Djokovic is Andy Murray. The Briton has made leaps and bounds on clay this year. Only in the past months, he's won his first clay tournament and more importantly beat Nadal to win a second tournament on the surface. Before his quarter-final match against Ferrer yesterday, he had never beaten the Spaniard on clay; yet he proved too strong in a 3-1 easy drubbing. Murray is coming good, especially mentally on his least-favoured surface.

Is all that good enough to beat Djokovic? No way. Not in a 3-set match against the best player in the world at the moment. A player who's just destroyed Nadal in 3 straight sets and is on the all-conquering path of winning the only tournament missing from his Grand Slam resume. The motivation is there for all to see. It's a now or never chance the Serb will not let pass. Murray will have to bow to his nemesis again.

Win Semi-Final: Djokovic

End of Reigns

The news have broken that Blatter is out of FIFA after an overdue 17-year reign. It seems another cycle is about to end in a few hours; Rafa Nadal, the master of Roland Garros is gunning for his 10th crown in 11 years but has the irrepressible Novak Djokovic on his way at the quarter-final stage today.

The stats are amazing. Nadal has only been beaten once in the past 10 years at the French Open. On his best day, no-one can beat him on the surface. The problem this year is that he's not at his peak. He was out of the game for most of last year and rushed his preparations to be ready to defend his French Open crown. While he is getting better with every match, the encounter with Djokovic comes a little too soon for him. The Serb is currently the world's best player. Mentally, he is on another level to anyone. He's beaten Nadal on clay during the preparatory tournaments leading to Roland Garros. He knows what it takes to beat the French master on the surface, now he needs to do it where it counts most. Time plays for him as he's in the best form of his life while Nadal is just getting back his reflexes. It's now or never for the Serb to crack open Nadal's reign and make his way to winning the only Grand Slam tournament missing from his resume.

In a few hours, cometh another end of reign. Djokovic to win the match, and eventually the tournament.

Win against Nadal: Djokovic
Win tournament: Djokovic

Football, National Hunt, Tennis

The EPL takes a backseat to the FA Cup this week-end. The only certainty looks to be Man Utd going through to the next round as they host Fulham. The Red Devils should win this no problem.

In Spain, Barcelona host Osasuna in what should be another 3 full points towards their march to the title. Real Madrid host Getafe, a game that they should also win even though Mourinho is bound to not play his best team given that the league is not their priority anymore. I see both giants winning their games this week-end.

National Hunt is not my main code of racing to follow, but I know that Sprinter Sacre is as safe a certainty as there is. He is a straight win recommendation in the Victor Chandler Chase Group 1 on Saturday.

Finally, the Australian Open will deliver its verdict on Sunday between the 2 best players in men tennis. If Andy Murray can overcome Novak Djokovic, he will have confirmed his US Open tennis consecration of last year and be the designated best player on tour and the one to beat in future tournaments. If the Serb wins, he will have shown he is still the undisputed No 1. I have a feeling Nole will win this but punting on any one of them would be pure speculation.

Win: Man Utd, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Sprinter Sacre

In dominant mood

It was a relatively quiet week-end with the domestic leagues giving way to the world cup qualifiers until next week-end. A few events of note however in the varied world of sports.

Snow Fairy winning the Irish Champion Stakes. What an amazing filly she is, and she could very well surpass Ouija Board as Ed Dunlop's best filly. She's won  in UK, Ireland, Japan and Hong Kong, and I would not be surprised if she added France to her conquests when she tackles the Arc in a few weeks time. She's all heart and if I am to truly rate this filly, I only have to look at the 2 races she faced So You Think. In last year's edition of the same Irish Champion Stakes, she was second, only a length behind the Coolmore superstar. In the Arc, she was this time a length in front, although SYT was not given a judicious ride. So in my books, she is weighted a length or two behind the High Chaparral beast, which puts her in a league of only a select few. If Camelot does not make it to the Arc, Snow Fairy must be given a leading chance.

Speaking of Camelot, he looks all set for his big day in destiny on Saturday for the St Leger. It would be great if he makes history, not least for the reason that it would be great for me to witness a Triple Crown in my time. With the way commercial breeding is going, this looks to be a once in a lifetime occurrence, and the Coolmore people need to be lauded for taking this route.

Then, there was Rory Mc Ilroy's win in the BMW Championship, his 3rd title in his last 4 outings. Definitely Rory is back, and he's thrashed Tiger Woods (and the rest) on each occasion. Rory is simply the best golfer in the world at the moment and could remain so if Tiger does not get his mojo back. Rory has a winning chance each time he gets on a tournament, something that was said of Tiger years ago.

Tonight is the US Open final between Djokovic and Murray. Clearly the 2 best players in the world today, with the injury to Nadal. The head says Nole, and the heart says Murray, as I would like the Scot to get the monkey off his back regarding Majors. Djokovic looks strong and definitely knows how to tackle such finals. No recommendation on this one, but I cannot see any wrong punting for the Serb to win.

US Open 2012

Barcelona, Man Utd, Swansea were up to the task, Sunderland's match was postponed but the real shocker came at Getafe where Real Madrid got upset in a match labelled as unadmissible from their manager. Leading by a goal at the half, I wouldn't have given much of Getafe reversing the score in the second half, and they did. A few more defeats like this so early in the season and you'd suspect that Mourinho's tenure in Spain will be put in question.

The US Open tennis got underway and at first glance, it looks, that with Nadal missing, the Big 3 of Djokovic, Federer and Murray look set to trounce their way to the semi-finals. The caveat this year might be the impact of the London Olympics to the schedule, hence fitness, of the players that participated. Without a medal, Djokovic went straight to Toronto to win the Canadian Open, then got rocked in the final at Cincinnati. He could be undone by having had no break at all. Federer skipped Toronto and looked fresher in beating the Serb in Cincinnati. It remains to be seen in what kind of disposition Murray is after his gold medal win. Almost expectedly, he got knocked out early in Toronto but the extra time of rest looks to set him up nicely for this last Major. More importantly, his London win will possibly have given the belief that he can win a major tournament. We'll see.

Looking at the draw, Djokovic seems to have a clear path to the semi-finals, at least. Possibly, Juan Potro will meet him there. So, Nole to reach at least the semi's looks a safe punt. A rejuvenated Federer should breeze to the other semi's as well. Murray should be meeting him there but at this point, the Swiss looks the more assured one to have faith on.

Reach or past semi-finals: Federer, Djokovic

Olympic moment

Maybe the greatest spectacle on earth, the Summer Olympics get underway in London. To me, only the World Cup of football garners better prestige and attention. As all Olympics, there will be drama, great stories that will unfold, unsung heroes will come to the fore, and inevitably drug-related scandals will surface. In the end, many moments will be there to be remembered for a lifetime.

The Olympics is not the forte of this blog, but there are some screaming certainties over the week-end that cannot be missed. In tennis, the quadruple of Ferrer/Federer/Djokovic/Del Potro should be winning their first matches and will do a good accumulator. In swimming, Lochte and Phelps should do a 1-2, in any order, in the 400m medley. In basketball, the US men's and women's team should make it a double against France and Croatia. In fact, US should go all the way to gold in both events.

The biggest value lay so far is the GB team in soccer. I don't see them winning gold. In fact, they'll be lucky to win a medal. If I am to border on the sarcastic, the only 3 good things in this team is Ryan Giggs, Ryan Giggs and Ryan Giggs. Okay, I'm sounding overly negative, but with Stuart Pearce at the helm and the horrible show they've portrayed in the last few games, including a drab 1-1 draw against Senegal, how can one not be despondent on their chances? This is not an event where Brits should have their spirits high on.

Besides the Olympics, it's racing in the US that takes the eye on Sunday with the running of the Haskell. It's gathered a small field of 6, but with 3 main pretenders in Paynter, Gemologist and Dullahan. I favour the first 2 here. Although Dullahan was a fast-finishing third in the Kentucky Derby, he is winless on the dirt and it looks that he looks better on synthetics. Gemologist hasn't been seen since his flop in the Derby but connections sound confident that he is back to form. Whenever Todd Pletcher gives an air of confidence, it's generally a positive thing regarding the expectations on the horse. Paynter looks a really good colt from the Baffert stable. He was just touched off by Union Rags in the Belmont Classic and he is the deserving favourite of the race. I see Gemologist and Paynter in the first 2 in any order, so an exacta is my confident punt here.

Exacta: Paynter-Gemologist.

Lay: GB soccer team to win gold

Big chance

Ouch, Roger Federer rolled back the years and stunned Djokovic to reach the Wimbledon final. My bad on this one; Djokovic will beat Federer on most days but today the Fed just did not want to give up the fight on his preferred surface. He will meet Andy Murray in an intriguing final. The London public will want Murray to get his first Major but I'm sure the crowd will not mind Federer winning it, in what very well could be his last Major. The pressure is definitely on the Scot, it's a now-or-never time to win a coveted big one.

Saturday is all about racing, particularly in England and South Africa. The Durban July, SA's most prestigious race runs at Greyville with the fantastic Jackson, sure to play a leading role in the proceedings. He is the best horse by far in the race and it seems only his outside 16th draw can beat him. His main opponent looks to be Ilha Bella from the mighty De Kock stable. However she is drawn even worse in 19th, so he looks favourably drawn in that respect. Jackson looks a safe each-way punt, and should figure at the finish.

On the same card, the Garden Province Stakes pits 2 of the country's best fillies in Ebony Flyer and Princess Victoria.  The mile distance will suit Ebony Flyer perfectly and the only question mark regarding her is her adaptability to the Greyville undulating track, on which she has never run before. The winner should come out of those two and my preference goes to a Place on Ebony Flyer.

The Coral-Eclipse Stakes at Sandown looks a wide open affair with the defection of So You Think. Farrh caught the eye when third to the son of High Chaparral in the Prince of Wales Stakes at Royal Ascot. He missed the break and finished best of all to capture third place. Connections are praying for a lot of rain and if the ground is really softish, this son of Pivotal will go in with a big chance. Whatever the ground conditions, Farrh looks set to play a major role and he looks a value Place.


Each-way: Jackson
Place: Ebony Flyer, Farrh

No contest

Although he clearly hated the heavy ground, Camelot was too classy for his over-matched rivals and won the Irish Derby by a rather cozy 2 lengths. Next stop for the son of Montjeu hopefully will be the St Leger where he should take all the beating again. The English Triple Crown looks to be a real possibility this year. Hats of to Ballydoyle and Coolmore if Camelot attempts it because achieving it is not the best path to commercial success in the bloodstock world.

Spain thrashed Italy in the Euros to enhance their legacy among the world's greatest ever sides. Are they the best of all time? They certainly have the results to prove it as World Cup champions and double European Cup winners. I cannot recall in my time any other side that has achieved such kind of feat. What amazes me with the Spain squad is their midfield. I mean, Iniesta, Xavi, Fabregas, Mata, Silva are some of the best midfielders in the world and yet will never all fit in the starting eleven. My only regret during those Euros is that they did not get to meet Germany in the final. That would have been something as disregarding the blip against Italy, the ever-improving Germans look the stronger of the rest in Europe. I hope this Spanish squad meets Brazil, Argentina or Germany at some point in the next World Cup because a win against those will really cement their greatness.

The battle to get in the final at Wimbledon pits Novak Djokovic against Roger Federer in one semi-final. At current odds, the Serb looks great value to reach the final here. I've said it many times before, Nole has gotten the number of the aging Swiss. Federer might have looked impressive in the quarter-finals against Youzhny but he will not have it as easy against the Serb, who's been having the mental edge in their recent encounters. With Nadal out, this year's Wimbledon looks destined to go to Djokovic and he will certainly find the will and means to overcome Federer and retain his title.

Win: Djokovic

Ugly is good

A full week-end it was, one which could have ended up great, had Holland and Ireland not lost. The fact that the Irish folded so tamely against the Croatians was disappointing as I was expecting them to do well during these Championships.

Nadal dominated Djokovic to win his seventh French Open. One thing to bear in mind from now on is that he's less effective in wet conditions where his strokes lose a lot of their spin. He's still the best, but Nole is clearly on the upward curve on the clay surface. We'll see next year if he can bridge the gap with the Spaniard.

Union Rags won the Belmont and with I'll Have Another's premature retirement, is definitely the 3-year old to follow. The Michael Matz horse will surely be playing a leading role in the important mile and a quarter Summer races.

England just drew with France in the Euros. 12-1 were the shots on goal in favour of France, England's only shot leading to a goal. What to make of this performance other than it was an important point gained? Expect a boring, disciplined, robotized England under the Hodgson guidance. At this point, long-suffering England fans will not care if the football spectacle is sacrificed for success. The FA must have known that when they appointed Hodgson, and I concur. England is at a point where it's better to win playing ugly than to play well and get a negative result, as has been many times the case in the past years. Really, outshot 1-12 would have looked like a disaster a few years back, but no longer. Even against a not-that-good French team that is a far-cry from the Zidane years.

These Euros are there for the taking. I believe there are more surprises in the offing during the group phase.

Loaded week-end

Off to a promising start in the Euros with the Greeks and Polish drawing. In tennis, Nadal and Djokovic also won as expected, setting up a final that promises to be a spectacle for the ages.

A fully-loaded week-end it looks to be. Here are my views on the week-end matches.

Netherlands v/s Denmark. It's hard to go against the Dutch here although Denmark will certainly give them all they can handle. But in this Group of Death, Holland need to ensure they get the full 3 points as their remaining games are against Germany and Portugal. A draw-no-bet for the Dutch here looks safe.

Germany v/s Portugal. Portugal's performance in these Euros depend on their main man, Christiano Ronaldo. If he has a good tournament, so will the national team. Germany will be their solid selves and it's hard not to see them go through. I see Germany as a good draw-no-bet as well.

Spain v/s Italy. The Italians are struggling right now and they don't look anywhere as good as their predecessors. That said, they should never be discounted because they almost always rise up on the big occasions. Spain is the best team in the tournament, but that doesn't necessarily mean they'll be winners at the end. They shouldn't be beaten by this Italian team though, and are taken as a safe draw-no-bet as well.

Ireland v/s Croatia. I think the Irish could be the surprise package of this group and of the Euros in general. I like the work of Trappatoni and he's got the experience in these kinds of tournaments. Croatia are capable of the best and worst, and they now have a really good striker in Everton's Jelavic. I still like Ireland's chances here, and they look to be the best value draw-no-bet of the week-end.

Back to Roland Garros where the best 2 players will square off in Sunday's final. Will it be Djokovic's first or Nadal's seventh? I think the Spaniard looks as good as ever, and will be all too aware that if he can't beat the Serb here, he won't beat him anywhere else. The French Open is his territory and he will be pumped up for it. Djokovic is the best among the rest on the surface and can give the Spaniard a real game, but at the end, it should be business as usual for Nadal. He is recommended to win it all.

Saturday's woman final between little-known Italian Errani and Sharapova. This is a fantastic opportunity for the Russian to win her first French Open and hence complete the career Grand Slam. She should be able to do it and is selected to win as well.

Finally, news just eked out that I'll Have Another will not compete in Saturday's Belmont Stakes, hence killing off any hopes of a Triple Crown winner. That clears the way for either Union Rags or Dullahan to win it. Union Rags as a Place looks safe and is the recommendation. For long punters, Street Life as a Place could also be the way to go because this horse will finish the best of them all.

Win: Nadal, Sharapova

Draw-no-bet: Netherlands, Germany, Spain, Ireland.

Place: Union Rags

Outside reasons

Nadal is looking good and after overcoming Alamagro, will face another Spaniard in Ferrer in the semi-final. He should win that one too and reach the final. The other semi-final will see another duel between Federer and Djokovic. Both needed 5 sets in the previous round and the Serb had to save 4 match points to stave off elimination from local Tsonga. That Nole has an amazing fighting spirit, he's never out.

Nadal to beat Ferrer is a certainty. Nole should logically beat the aging Federer; it's not as certain as with Nadal, but it will bring better returns with some amount of risk.

Interesting developments in football around the non-selection of Rio Ferdinand after the defection of Gary Cahill due to injury. Hodgson was right to dismiss Rio from the original selection since the fresher legs of Terry, Lescott and Cahill give better cover. I have no problem with that. However, after the no-go of Cahill, there is no way that Tottenham's Kelly is a better defender than Rio. So, for pure footballing reasons, Hodgson has no real excuse for not selecting the Man Utd defender. The problem is that the manager shot himself in the foot in the first place by saying that he did not select Rio in the first place for footballing reasons, unaware he might eventually run short of defenders.

The reason he's right to omit Rio is because he and Terry can no longer play together on the same team after the racism scandal involving Anton, Rio's brother. The world knows that and if Hodgson were forthright and simply admit that, then he wouldn't be facing this debate. Being England manager makes him in need of being politically correct, not blunt honest, and this has played against him; if he's to be accused of a wrongdoing, it's of being dishonest in that instance. At this point, having Terry is more important than Rio, and there is no way he's going to include Rio at the risk of causing friction in the squad. Good decision, but poor execution and result. Let's hope England's Euro experience goes the other way round.

Win: Nadal

Highlights all over

5 out of 7 selections obliged with Igugu, Milan, Palermo, Real and Lyon all winning, but Inter and Barcelona disappointing against lowly opposition. The week-end was not short of highlights in many departments.

In La Liga, it is almost done deal for Real who have shot 7 points clear at the top. They look a certainty to win the title and only a cataclysmic occurrence (like Mourinho quitting before the season end) will stop them. It is looking sweet right now, having recommended piling on them a couple of months ago.

In tennis, what else to say about Djokovic beating Nadal yet again in a Major final? He's got his sights on Roland Garros already and Nadal has a few weeks to figure out how to stop the Serbian machine. After all, Paris is the Spaniard's hunting ground and it will be interesting to see if Nole has the ammunition to topple him on his favourite surface. We'll get there in due time.

In golf, Tiger let go of the win in the final round in Abu Dhabi to an English journeyman golfer. It used to be that Tiger would always make the difference in the last round if leading after 3 rounds, but his defeat shows that he's not quite at his best level yet. Still a third place finish looks honorable as he continues his comeback assault.

In racing, the Kenilworth meeting in South Africa was a treat to watch. What a beautiful mover Jackson, the winner of the Cape Investec Derby, is. Definitely one to watch in future middle-distance races. Ebony Flyer, who I have been gloating about in these pages but who flopped badly in the Queen's Plate, redeemed herself and won the Group 1 mile race on the card. But the star of the evening was Igugu, no doubt. She produced a jaw-dropping finishing kick to win when all observers had her beaten. Super Igugu, she would beat any filly on this planet from 10-12 furlongs, in my opinion.

Tuesday sees a rare Premier League fixture and I see Man Utd and Tottenham keeping the pressure on leaders Man City. They should dispatch Stoke and Wigan respectively at home; a Win on Man Utd is recommended, while a conservative draw-no-bet on Spurs looks safer than an outright win (there's always the disruptive effects of manager Redknapp's off-field issues on the functioning of the team).

Win: Man Utd

Draw-no-bet: Tottenham

Busy week-end

Terrific last couple of days with African Story and Musir winning the plaudits in Meydan and Djokovic reaching the Australian Open Final as recommended.

The EPL leaves the stage to the FA Cup this week-end, with a Liverpool v/s Man Utd as the highlight match. Cup matches rarely have anything to do with EPL form so it is pointless for me to try to find teams that will go through. I will rather focus on La Liga where Real and Barcelona go back to battle for the title after their epic Cup showdown. With eyes closed, the recommendation is on Real to overcome last-place Zaragoza. It will be a matter of how many goals the Los Blancos will score against a club that looks destined for relegation.

Barcelona have an arguably more difficult match against Villareal, who are the disappointing team of the league. This is a team that was contending in the Champions League not long ago and who now find themselves fighting for survival in the top flight. The Catalans cannot afford to lose any points in this match and provided they do not suffer from the absences of Iniesta and Sanchez, they should get the Win in the end. They are recommended as a Win as well.

In Serie A, I like draw-no-bets for AC Milan, Inter and Palermo as they are playing inferior opposition.
In La Ligue 1, Lyon looks a safe draw-no-bet against Dijon.

South African racing has a big Saturday with no less than 3 Group 1's and 1 Group 2 up for grabs. The main race is the J&B Met in which superstar filly Igugu is the big favourite. The main question is whether she has fully recovered from the throat infection that had affected her, and the subsequent tough quarantine to which she had been subjected. If she's back to her best, she'll win. Throat infections can destroy a career; the one that comes to mind is Discreet Cat's in the DWC. The horse never came back to his best again. Although Igugu's problem does not look as serious as that of the former Godolphin star, it will still be interesting if that could have had any effect on her. I think as odds-against, she's worth the punt as a Win as she is better than anything in the field by far. With those risks in mind, the recommendation is for her to Win.

Win: Real Madrid, Barcelona, Igugu

Draw-no-bet: Milan, Inter, Palermo, Lyon

The Joker back in business

Not a great week-end with only 4 punts winning out of 7, with 1 void and 2 losses. The big guns of Barcelona, Real, and Manchester teams won, but Juventus could only draw for a void, while Fiorentina and Valencia got shocking losses at home.

It's been a quiet last few days on the racing and football front. The news that So You Think is being considered for a Dubai World Cup bid is interesting. He'll be a deserving big favourite if he starts the race. I just cannot see a horse at this time that will have the class to challenge him. But this is more than 2 months away, so I'll get to that in due time.

Havre de Grace won the coveted Horse of the Year Eclipse award yesterday night. Truth be told, last year's racing form in the US was sketchy at best. There was no superstar or horse to be mentioned in the same breath as Zenyatta or Curlin. Havre de Grace is a deserving winner but she's no Zenyatta.

The Australian Open started this week and I cannot see past Djokovic here. He's just a step above the rest and his fans will be feel assured that he has kept last year's form after his first game yesterday. Chances are he will add another Major in a fortnight, and what looks certain is that he will at least reach the final. I cannot see Andy Murray blocking his way to get there. So that's the recommendation.

To Reach Final: Djokovic

Honour Roll 2011

Looking back at 2011 in which human or equine athletes made their marks; as usual, some disappointed, others confirmed on their promises, while a few others surpassed all expectations of them. These are my 3 stars of 2011 in sports.

Frankel - the Galileo colt, regarded on every handicap scale, as the best horse of  2011, went unbeaten in 5 races. His greatness was confirmed by the manner of his win in the 2000 Guineas where he literally hammered the race in a visually-awesome catch-me-if-you-can style. He went on to dispose of the then king-miler Canford Cliffs in convincing fashion. Described as the best ever by none other than his trainer, Henry Cecil, Frankel will remain in training as a 4-year old, to the obvious delight of racing fans. I rate him as the best miler to have ever raced on turf and can't wait for him to show he's the best ever at 10 furlongs this year. His sire being Galileo, I don't foresee him having any problems at the distance. Should he still be dominant, I would love to see him have a crack at either the Arc or the Breeders Cup Classic on dirt; more something of hope than confidence, as I am not so sure that is the planned plot by connections.

Black Caviar - the Australian superstar mare, quite simply the greatest sprinter in the world today, went 8 for 8 in 2011. Lifetime, she's undefeated in a staggering 16 races. I just cannot wait for her to step on European shores, particularly at Ascot, to show her greatness. No sprinter in Australia comes close to her; as a matter of fact, they try to avoid her. Since the horses Down Under have been dominating the Ascot sprint races for years, one can only imagine the effect she will have coming here. Ascot might never have seen the likes of it ever before; she will bring down the roof!

Novak Djokovic - my athlete of the year. Such displays of dominance in an unforgettable season where he notched 3 Grand Slam tournaments with a 70-6 record. The undisputed No1 in the world today as he looks to have locked mastery over Federer and Nadal. I thought Nadal was showing that he was THE one to follow, but the Serb has turned up the notch ever higher and crushed Nadal every time they met. His dominance has been surprising to say the least, but it certainly looks set to continue in 2012 if he stays healthy. Rafael Nadal has a big mental hurdle to overcome if he's to usurp Djokovic this year.

Champions League start

Djokovic is just a monster. I cannot think of a more dominant athlete in a sport today than Nole. Arguably his 3 slam victories this year typifies an even greater domination than Tiger's 3 slams a few years back since he's only lost 2 matches the whole year! It's back to the drawing board for Rafa. Nole owns him right now.

Today is the start of a new Champions League season, which seems to grow in bounds of significance from year to year. It seems every player's dream every year is not to win the domestic title but to win the European Cup. Today's matches look to be very close and there could be a flurry of drawn matches. I don't think Barcelona is assured of a win against visiting Milan since it's still got a depleted defence which the Italians could exploit; a draw-no-bet on the Blaugrana looks the safer option and is recommended. Arsenal and Chelsea will have difficult nights against German opponents Dortmund and Leverkusen respectively and those matches can go either way in my opinion. Draw purists will love tonight's fixtures.

Draw-no-bet: Barcelona.

The buck stops here

Been on the move to a newer house and now getting all the online connection back. About time.

My last recommendation, Carlton House, came out 4th, out of the placings in the Irish Derby. My feeling is that he has shown that he's not a pure stayer and needed more time off to recuperate from his last race at Epsom. He will be better suited by the distances of the Champion Stakes races.

Nothing much extra-interesting in the world of sports besides Wimbledon. Frenchman Tsonga played spoilers by downing slumping Federer for the final 4 spot. Djokovic, Nadal and Murray are still in the hunt. I think the buck stops here for Tsonga in his semi-final against Djokovic. I actually think the the Serb is under-value at the exchanges and I see no problem recommending him to win and book his final spot.


Win: Djokovic

All about France

If only Novak.... 5 good recommendations out of 6, with only Novak Djokovic losing to Roger Federer. The Serb had his chances to tie it at 2-2, but just could not take his chances. To be fair, Federer had a lot of break chances as well, and the match was decided on a few points. Nadal dismissed Murray in 3 easy sets, Antara won and Wonder of Wonders, Midday and Tortoni were all placed.

As for the French Open final on Sunday, I still cannot see Federer beating Nadal. The Swiss can still have a few tennis Majors in him before he retires, but beating Nadal on clay is a tough ask. I recommend Nadal to be crowned French Open champion for the sixth time on Sunday.

The Derby gets run tomorrow and Carlton House will finally be able to take part having overcome his setback earlier this week. There is obviously a strong popular support for the Queen's horse to win. I don't think he will however. In my opinion, his best distance is at 10 furlongs, and I believe he will lack the stamina to get the full 12 furlongs of Epsom. I mentioned it before and I maintain my pick for the race; Pour Moi, the French raider from the Andre Fabre stable. He's by the sire that produces the best 12 furlong horses in the world in Montjeu, and the French champion trainer seems to have him in top condition for the race. I think he will definitely be in the first 3 and I recommend him as a safe Place. I give him a strong win chance as well for those that fancy an outright win punt.

Recital, another Montjeu colt, could be his main challenger. The distance will suit and he looks to be ridden by Kieran Fallon if the absurdity of Native Khan's connections are thrown out in court. This is quite an unbelievable story going on off the race-tracks, with Native's Khan's owners trying to stop Fallon from riding Recital. No matter what kind of verbal promises could have been made and broken previously in the rundown to this race, this reach to the courts is unsporting and should not be condoned in racing.


Win: Nadal
Place: Pour Moi

Ladies Day

Rafael Nadal dismissed Soderling in 3 straight sets but Zarabajad came out 2nd after a very suspect ride from Johnny Murtagh. I think the Aga Khan jockey is the best in the business in Ireland but he did not seem to have his customary zest at the finish.

Talking tennis, I can't see past a Djokovic/Nadal final (again) in the French Open. Nadal should be too much to handle for Murray, and Djokovic certainly has the mental edge on the aging Federer. So I recommend Nadal and Djokovic to win their semi-final matches on Friday.

Friday is Oaks day in racing and there are 3 fillies/mares that I will be following closely. In the first race, I like Antara who makes her seasonal return for Godolphin. She clearly is the classiest of the bunch and the only question mark is her current fitness. Bin Suroor mentions that she will improve for the run, which indicates that she will not be at her peak. She won this race last year on her seasonal return as well, so the track and long layoff should not be of concern.  I recommend her as a Place prospect and see Timepiece from the Henry Cecil yard as her main opponent.

The Coronation Cup seems to be a 2 horse race between St Nicholas Abbey (SNA) and Midday. Dandino should be a close third if one of the two mentioned fails to fire. It's hard to forge a clear opinion on how good is SNA. If he runs to the potential that he showed as a 2-year old and confirms his win at Chester 28 days ago, he will be hard to beat. This race will see confirmation of whether he is a serious horse, one that "could walk on water" according to his trainer Aidan O'Brien. Midday is the more reliable to side with and is almost always in the frame. She gets my vote as a Place recommendation.

The Oaks race is very open in my opinion. I am not a huge fan of Blue Bunting although she surprised me considerably (and many others) by winning the 1000 Guineas. On pedigree she should have just enough stamina for the 12 furlongs being by Dynaformer and a middle-distance mare. She has never raced over 8 furlongs though, and with the speed she's shown in the Guineas, 10 furlongs might be a more suitable distance for her. I like Wonder of Wonders in this race. She has raced and won at the distance, and she's got that fantastic pedigree being out of All Too Beautiful, daughter of super mare Urban Sea. I see her being involved at the finish and I recommend her as a Place.

At Doncaster, I like Tortoni in the first race. The son of Teofilo has been placed in his first 2 races and I see him being in the frame again. Whether he actually wins depends on how good is Campanology from the Richard Hannon stable who have interestingly booked Johnny Murtagh for the ride. Tortoni is recommended as a Place.


Win: Nadal, Djokovic.
Place: Antara, Midday, Wonder of Wonders, Tortoni.