Juddmonte International - Al Kazeem needs to overcome Toronado

There are only 2 names to remember for Wednesday's Juddmonte International at York; Al Kazeem and Toronado. I cannot see any of the other contenders preventing one of these 2 landing the main prize.
AK will be aiming for a 4th successive Group 1 win. It is amazing that the 5-year old son of Dubawi was not even a Group 1 winner until this year, although there was little doubt that he was high-class. The vibes from connections are very positive and the fact that he's coming in after 46 days of rest should have him optimally fit. I cannot see him out of the first 2.

Toronado will be the one to play spoilers. Officially the best miler in Europe on ratings, he will be adventuring at the 10 furlong distance for the first time. Being by High Chaparral, there is every chance that he has the distance in him. The way he won the Sussex Stakes leaves room for confidence that the distance is within his cords. But it is also true that trainer Richard Hannon's main successes have mostly been with races up to a mile. So that leaves a big question mark as to how well prepared or trained has Toronado been for a mile and a quarter showdown with a top-class and battle-tested horse like AK. On the positive side, he will be in receipt of 7 pounds from AK, so that could aid his cause in making the difference.

I strongly think those 2 will share the first 2 spots. I have a slight preference for AK for the win but won't be surprised if Toronado just edged the battle in a photo. At current odds, both look good Place values as well.

Win: Al Kazeem
Place: Al Kazeem, Toronado

Royal Ascot 2013 - Day 1

Animal Kingdom towers above the field in the opening race Prince of Wales Stakes at Ascot. If he is anywhere near his true form and has no problem adapting to the undulations of the track, there is really nothing in the field that can beat him. Signs from connections have been positive throughout his preparations so it looks like he will be tough to beat. Should he fail to fire, I see Elusive Kate and Trade Storm as his nearest pursuers. The former runs very well fresh and has had good form in Group 1 races last year. Trade Storm has been a revelation in Dubai and if he gets the firm ground that he relishes, he has strong claims to be in the placings. Animal Kingdom is short-priced but he should win.

The King's Stand Stakes is an intriguing contest with Shea Shea, the Mike de Kock representative, being another short-priced favourite. This is a big field of 19 runners, so it won't be a surprise if he's turned over. The Aussies have a great record in the race and will be represented by Shamexpress, who although does not seem to have the star power or reputation of Choisir, Takeover Target and Miss Andretti, should be be respected. I think Reckless Abandon represents tremendous value in this race. The son of Exchange rate lost  his unbeaten tag on this seasonal return this year when a good third to Kingsgate Native in the Betfred Temple Stakes a few weeks ago. This race will have brought him on nicely and he's shown very good speed in all his races to suggest that he can be one of the premier sprinters in the country if kept at the 5-6 furlong distance. I see value in having him in the placings.

Finally, the St James Palace stakes looks set to be a dandy. The rather shocking return of Dawn Approach has turned the race upside down. If he's truly recovered from the disastrous Derby and is still the horse that won the Guineas, then he must have a live chance to win. Magician is a top-drawer horse in his own right and his backers will be eager to see if the setback in his preparation will have any effect on race day. Despite his Guineas flop, Toronado is still highly regarded in the Richard Hannon camp. I think we can throw away that race. He showed great speed and the way he floundered in the end definitely meant that something had bothered him. Very possibly his newly-fitted spoon-bit might be the solution to the issue. The vibes from the connections are most positive and I think there is a great chance that he will run to his full potential. I think he's the value Place punt of the race.

Win: Animal Kingdom
Place: Reckless Abandon, Toronado

Toronado to be followed by Dawn Approach

This week-end is all about Flat racing with the first Classics in Britain being held at Newmarket and the Kentucky Derby looking a wide-open affair at Churchill Downs.

There are only 2 names to remember for the 2000 Guineas; Toronado and Dawn Approach. The winner will come out of the two, and the loser will very possibly make the first 3. Not so long ago, Richard Hughes was claiming that Canford Cliffs was the best he'd ridden. He now thinks that Toronado is on par or potentially  better than CC. That's a big statement. The unbeaten son of High Chaparral won the Craven impressively. He's got the cobwebs out of that run. His connections think he's in the form of his life. The same connections won the 2000 Guineas 4 times and recently placed with CC, Dick Turpin and Dubawi Gold. So, they know how to prepare the horse for the race. Distance will not be a problem. Bar an accident, I cannot see Toronado out of the first 2. In fact, I think he will win.

Dawn Approach is the unbeaten son of New Approach. He's won all his 5 races like his sire, as a juvenile. New Approach was heavy favourite for the Guineas but found Henrythenavigator a head too good in the 2009 Classic. It could be a bis repetita scenario for his son as well. Trainer Jim Bolger has never won the Guineas, but that doesn't mean that he cannot prepare them right for the occasion. He's placed recently with New Approach, as well as Gan Amhras. He couldn't have better words for NA leading to the race; his preparation has been ideal with no hiccups and he has gotten the expected improvement from the horse to be a leading player this year. Very encouraging words which make me think that NA towers over the rest of the field, bar Toronado.

From the rest, Aidan's O'Brien's horses always run well in the Classic, even without a prep run. He won it with Camelot last year and he definitely knows how to get them a winning chance in the race. Whichever of George Vancouver, Mars or Christoforo Colombo should be the best of the rest.

I have hardly any doubt it will be between Toronado and Dawn Approach. Where Toronado edges it for me is his advantage of having had a prep run. Also, there looks to be pace in the race which will better suit the Hannon colt. Dawn Approach should follow him home.

The 1000 Guineas looks a wide open affair but I feel French raider What a Name could spoil the local party. She's definitely a very talented daughter of Mr Greeley and the mile will be right up her alley. The vibes are very positive from her yard after her convincing seasonal re-appearance win in the Prix Imprudence. She is a Place selection.

In the US, the Run for the Roses looks a very competitive one. Much of it will depend on the conditions of the race and any hard-luck for the horses to weave their way through a 20-horse field. Orb is the slight favourite and if he does not suffer from a horror trip, he should be a leading player. I'll stand on the sidelines on this one but any exotic punt needs to have Orb in there.


Win: Toronado
Place: Dawn Approach, What a Name

Week-end football and racing

The Flat season has started its post-Frankel era since a couple of weeks. No doubt that the mega-star of the past few years will be missed, but this is racing; one goes and there is hope that another gem arises, although it will be tough to surpass Frankel. But just a few years ago, everyone seemed to think that we'd never see the likes of Sea The Stars again, yet the son of Galileo appeared and the rest, they say, is history.

Black Caviar surprisingly left for the paddocks as well earlier this week and so racing has lost its 2 brightest stars. Among the juvenile brigade, there are a few that have shown potential and might emerge with promise; Dawn Approach and Toronado are certainly at the fore-fronts of all minds ahead of the coming Guineas. Among the older brigade, Camelot oozes enigma, and expectations will be high on the son of Montjeu to vindicate claims from his trainer that he's the best horse ever to come out of  Ballydoyle.

Then, Sea The Stars has his first 2-year olds running this year. I personally believe he will become a terrific sire; whether as good or better than his half-brother Galileo, it's difficult to pronounce, but he's definitely got the pedigree and breeder support to make a great stallion. We'll have to wait and let his sons and daughters do the talking. Lots to look forward indeed.

On Saturday, Noble Mission, makes his season appearance at Newbury. It looks to be all systems go for the Frankel's half-brother. The distance will suit and he's clearly got the best form from last year, among the runners. He will definitely be in the top 2, but is worth a punt as an outright Win at current odds.

The Group 3 Greenham Stakes at 15.30 looks to be a race between Hannon's Olympic Glory and Botti's Moohajim. Both yards are in good form but I give a small advantage to the Hannon horse at the seven furlong distance. He's a Win selection as well.

In football, I like Norwich as a Win against sorry Reading. This should put the Canaries at ease in the relegation fight. I think Wigan will sneak something out of their trip to West Ham. They showed good spirit in their loss at Man City and they definitely can match the Hammers. Wigan is a draw-no-bet selection.


Win: Noble Mission, Olympic Glory, Norwich
Draw-no-bet: Wigan

Irish 2000 Guineas

All 11 entries stood their ground for the Irish 2000 Guineas on Saturday. I believe the winner will come from this pack, in no particular order of preference; Born To Sea, Hermival, Parish Hall, Power, Reply, Takar and Trumpet Major. The others are simply not of the same class as the above.

Born To Sea disappointed in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. Connections can point to the soft ground but I think he's more of a sprinter-type, and his pedigree confirms that, being by Invincible Spirit. Over the course of the year, it could be that can get a mile against seasoned milers, but this race might possibly come a little too soon for him after his flop a few weeks back. I think he can run a Place at best.

Hermival sprang a surprise when coming home third at Newmarket. This son of Dubawi should have no concern regarding the distance, although he will not be getting his preferred soft ground at the Curragh. He can be involved in the placings again but I don't think he will win.

Winner of last year's Dewhurst, Parish Hall makes his seasonal appearance in the Classic. It remains to be seen in what kind of disposition he is, and how well he's progressed over the winter. Connections must be bullish because he's been the subject of major market support in the run-in to the race. It's impossible to gauge his chances against horses that have already had one or two important outings already, but if he wins this, he could turn out to be the top miler of his generation. It seems to be safer to have him in the frame than an outright win.

Power looks to be the No 1 representative from the Ballydoyle camp, despite having tailed off at Newmarket, seemingly because of the soft ground conditions. He's clearly got a lot of talent, but as a sprinter and not as an outright miler. A slow pace will play to his advantage, but it's hard to see him reverse form with the other contenders from the 2000 Guineas and take this.

If there is to be a huge upset, I would not be surprised if it came from Reply, again from the Aidan O'Brien camp. Unless he's already been tasked to take the role of the non-honourable pace-maker, he is making his seasonal appearance and has unexposed form. He has been placed third in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes last year, so his race history has to be respected. If he is to be given a proper chance to run his race, this might be a value pick for long punters.

Takar is the ride of Johnny Murtagh for the Aga Khan. He's clearly a smart sort who's won his last race at listed level very comfortably. That race should have brought the necessary improvement in him but he will feel the difference in class. He might have his say in elite company, but a place at this stage looks more of a possibility than a win.

Finally, Trumpet Major represents the Richard Hannon stable, and comes from a honourable fourth place at Newmarket. He looked the winner two furlongs out and while connections point to the soft ground for his downfall, I think he just might not have been suited to the dip of the Rowley track. The firmer track might be to his advantage, and the fact that he stayed on in the 2000 Guineas means that the distance will suit well. I think he's sitting on a big race.

All said and done, I like Trumpet Major as an each-way. The Hannon camp won this race with Canford Cliffs a couple of years back, and they look set to strike again, or at least play a major role again. I think Takar and Parish Hall look poised to run well and complete the placings.

Each-way: Trumpet Major

A Strong Lay

Bayern, Man Utd won as expected while Benfica drew with Basle for a voided punt.

A few developments in horse racing that of worthy of note in the past days. First, the news that Born To Sea had torn a muscle in his surprise defeat to Nephrite last Sunday. If that injury hampered the son of Urban Sea in any way, then there's hope that his defeat wasn't due to a lack of talent; he might still be able to give justice to the high opinion of him by the racing world, primarily due to his regal pedigree. After Sunday, his stock had taken a beating and his ante-post odds for next year's Guineas shot up from 6's to the current 14's. While I am not a fan of such markets, serious ante-post punters would be hard-pressed to find better value and might want a crack; if he stays healthy, this horse can become a serious miler next year, in my opinion.

The Breeders Cup starts on Friday with a very competitive card, but the main races of interest are really run on Saturday. At this point, I am at a loss as to why there is a such a strong interest in Strong Suit in the BC Mile. He's got the poorest of draws, he's far from a proven Group 1 winner, he's unproven on the 2-turn track, and he's going to encounter mighty Goldikova. To top it all, he was unable to train properly today along with some other English raiders, resulting in the top-headline drama between the track officials and some English trainers. To me, Strong Suit is a big lay for the Win. Goldikova will certainly beat him in any match-bet, in my opinion. I will wait for tomorrow's events to draw confirmation on all this, but I really think opposing the Hannon star would be rewarding on Saturday.

Brighton Thursday

Rather disappointing Wednesday racing results with Available beaten into 4th. The Hannon filly kept on and it seems she would have been better suited on a longer trip but the winner was too good on the day, stretching by 6 lengths at the finish. Enery came out second, a race where he travelled 3-wide the length of the Lingfield oval. His chances of winning were gone before the start when he unseated rider Buick and got loose! He bravely kept on to finish second and is one to follow on his next outing. The third selection, Blanc de Chine was a scratch.

On Thursday, I will keep faith in another Godolphin colt in Expert Fighter in the 15:30 Maiden race at Brighton. He came out 7th on his debut, beating Mojave, another Godolphin representation who won yesterday. I believe he should be in the first 3 in this modest contest. Since he hasn't proven anything yet, there is an element of risk in backing him, but for those that fancy a potentially rewarding punt, going with Expert Fighter as a Place or each-way might be worth it.

Wednesday racing

No surprises as Turkey, Italy, Spain and Russia all won their last game at home.

Back to racing on Wednesday where I believe the first race at Lingfield should go to Enery from the red-hot Godolphin stable. This Teofilo colt was a staying-on second in his last race 9 days ago and he should set the standard in this average field. The distance will suit and he's recommended as an each-way punt.

In the first race at Nottingham, Blanc de Chine makes a lot of appeal, having come out second in his last 2 races. The 5 furlong distance is just about right for this Dark Angel filly and it is a case of whether she's win this, or come out second again. I recommend her as a Place.

At Kempton, the Maiden stakes race at 19:10 should enable Available to break her duck at the second time of asking. This filly from the all-conquering Hannon stable was a very encouraging fourth on her debut, and the drop to 6 furlongs looks to be at her advantage.The field is average so she's recommended as a Win.

Win: Available

Each-way: Enery

Place: Blanc de Chine

Week-end racing

England drew and qualified for the Euro 2012, but the main talking point of the game was Rooney's red card. Does anyone wonder why England hasn't won something of note for a long time? It has brilliant players like Beckham, Rooney, yet when the chips are down, the brilliance turns into stupidity. Rooney's red against Montenegro was not as serious as Beckham's red against Argentina, or the same Rooney's red against Portugal, but it outlined the same problem again. Americans call them chokers when their sports stars screw up under pressure. This is worst than choking, it is plain idiocy.

Manager Capello calling Rooney fit to play mentally has to be one of the worst public managerial calls. It was a bold decision for him to make and say, and boy was he ever proven wrong in front of skeptics who rightfully questioned the state of the player following his dad's arrest 24 hours earlier, ironically, for a betting scam involving a red card. Really, the petulant striker's sending off was really written somewhere out there!

This week-end is all about racing with club football leaving the centre stage to the Euro qualifiers until next week. On Saturday, I like Strong Suit's chances in the first race at Newmarket. He's clearly the class of the race and will sport a penalty in this rather weak Group 2 contest. This colt from the Hannon stable is definitely better since his wind operation and he should definitely be in the first 3. I recommend him as an each-way.

The Dewhurst is the main race on the Newmarket race card and Power is the deserving favourite having bagged 4 wins out of 5, including 2 strong Group races in the National Stakes and Coventry Stakes. If Ryan Moore is close to his best abilities after his long layoff, he should have no problem steering the Oasis Dream colt in the first 3. The main opponents look to be the unbeaten Bronterre and Ektihaam, both of whom are stepping up in class for the first time. A Place on Power is the recommendation.

Finally, Gio Ponti runs in the Group 1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keenland, U.S. The 2-time U.S turf champion is looking for his first win of the year after good runner-up efforts in his last 2 races. Although now six, the Tale of the Cat colt is still one of the leading runners at a mile and over in the U.S on turf. He always gives the best account of himself, so can never be disregarded. The race has also attracted Zoffany from the Ballydoyle stable. If he's anywhere close to his best, Gio Ponti should win this. Even if one of the younger brigade were to usurp him, he should still be in the first 3. I recommend him as a strong Place.

Place: Power, Gio Ponti
Each-way: Strong Suit.

An Awesome destroyer

He came, he conquered and he convinced. Frankel lived up to his billing and removed any question marks as to who is the best miler in the world. Canford Cliffs had never taken such a beating, he was pummeled into submission by a freak of nature. Doubters can point to Cliff's dislike for the course in hanging left, or to his relative weight surcharge, but in truth, the manner of Frankel's win would indicate that he would win anytime, any place, at weight-level against Hannon's champion.

Only 2 years ago, we were talking of Sea The Stars as being the best that there ever has been. Already, Frankel is being hailed along the same lines. He can lead the field, he can come from behind, this horse is showing he can do it all. The racing world is awaiting with baited breath his next race; supposedly a Champion Stakes race at 10 furlongs, a distance some feel will stretch him. A race that will either enhance his growing legend, or define him to just being a great miler. Bring on So You Think, the voices are clamoring.

Cliffs was trounced and in coming second vindicated the Place recommendation put on him.

The Galway festival is under way in Ireland and on Thursday, I like Anam Allta in the 15:35 Fillies Handicap. She kept on for third on her seasonal debut last month at the Curragh and that race should have brought her on. She has shown a lot of ability in her light 3-race career and looks to among the finishers. She's recommended as a Place.

At Nottingham, I also like Al Mahmeyah in the first race. This 2-year old Teofilo filly ran on to be second on her latest start at Kempton and looks to be the class act in this rather exposed field. The Hannon yard always provides for a formidable string of juveniles and Al Mahmeyah looks set to continue their dominance in that area. The main opposition might come from Ashbina from the Haggas yard who's currently in good form. I recommend Al Mahmeyah as a Place as well.


Place: Anam Allta, Al Mahmeyah

The world's best miler

Strong Suit won well for a good recommendation. When in form, he's clearly a notch above anything else in that race at the distance.

They were 3 in contention, now they are down to 2. By soundly beating Goldikova, Canford Cliffs removed one formidable foe that could have halted his quest for being the world's best miler horse. Only the mighty Frankel now stands in his way. It's amazing how these 2 champions have scared away the opposition none of the colts that ran in the French, Irish or English Guineas (besides Frankel himself) will be present. Rajsaman and Rio de La Plata will be the only other ones trying to provide some challenge but it looks more like a lost cause really.

The official handicappers have it that if Frankel repeats his devastating run of the Guineas, he will be 10 pounds clear of Canford Cliffs' best and should win easily. There is no way, in any shape or form, that Canford Cliffs is 10 pounds inferior to Frankel. Unless tomorrow's race proves otherwise, it looks like these 2 colts will not be too far from each other at the finish; it might be by the bob of a head, a neck or a length, but it won't be by many lengths if they both produce their best, in my opinion.

Canford Cliffs is the real deal. After showcasing his abilities at 2, there were question marks whether he could shed his sprinter-type tag during his Classic season. After all, most progenies of Tagula would find a mile too taxing. But Cliffs can easily stay the distance and there are not many horses that possess his finishing kick. He's answered all question marks about him and while the course cambers of Goodwood are of concern to  his trainer, Hannon, there's not much of a chink in his armour.

Frankel, the horse on everyone's lips because no-one knows yet what he's capable or incapable of doing. After a stellar 2-year old season, he devastated his peers in such a grand fashion in the Guineas that talks of being "the best ever" were circulating around him. Yet, despite him winning the St James Palace Stakes at Ascot, the manner of his win mostly disappointed the racing world. He "only won" but did not display his dominant self that is expected of him. Connections were quick to point to the tactics and his rider seemed to go at pains to say that he had lots of horse left. One thing that every one seems to agree on is that such tactics will doom him against Canford Cliffs. Being a 3-year old, Frankel will have the advantage of an 8-pound deduction in the race. Not that he would really need it, but that could be the decisive factor in separating the two. This is certainly the reason the bookies have him at odds-against with Canford Cliffs at a more generous 1.5/1.

The racing world wants an undisputed champion, and if possible, an overly-dominant one. Frankel fits the bill and carries with him the hopes and dreams of an ever-increasing legion of fans. With Canford Cliffs, the expectations are more predictable and they are huge indeed. The ground will be good and will suit both. There will (hopefully) not be any hard-luck stories in this small field. In the end, the difference might be the weight difference. As far as a punting certainty goes, Canford Cliffs will be in the first 2, so is a sure Place recommendation. Frankel should be in the placings as well, but Cliffs is the surer thing. After all, he very well might win this thing and be of interest to punters looking for value.

This one should be a classic. Come to the fore the world's greatest miler. 

Place: Canford Cliffs

Glorious Goodwood

Nathaniel came and won in a King George that will probably be remembered for the breaking down of Rewilding more than anything else. Some things transpired from this race.

That Nathaniel is a very good progressive racehorse that can mix it up with some of the best middle-distance horses. He validated his connections' bold move to supplement him in the race. As I was mentioning, John Gosden knows what he's doing. But Nathaniel's current 5/1 price for the Arc is way too short. The French horses won't give him such an easy race. At this price, he's a huge lay proposition in my opinion.

Workforce apparently got cut in one of his legs and drifted left-wards in the straight. How that affected his chances is up to debate. Something about the Ascot racecourse just does not go well with him. I would not discard him in the rest of his races because of this defeat. On his day, he can give the very best a run for their money; he's just proving to be a little inconsistent.

This race confirmed that St Nicholas Abbey is just not the superstar he's been billed out to be. A very good horse he is, but not a great one. He had no excuses in coming third. He should still be a threat at 12 furlong races, but on ability alone, any hope to his fans that he is the cream of the crop can be safely dismissed.

This week is all about the showdown between Frankel and Canford Cliffs in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood on Wednesday. On the first opening day tomorrow, Strong Suit and Delegator look poised to mount a big challenge in the Group 2 Lennox Stakes at 7 furlongs. The rather softish ground looks to be in favour of Strong Suit. Since his wind operation this term, the Rahy colt from the Hannon stable seems to have found his old form back and comes into the race with a strong 3rd in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat in France. The distance will suit and he looks sure to be among the finishers in this rather exposed field. I recommend him as an each-way punt.

Each-way: Strong Suit

Friday racing

Not a bad day at the races on Thursday. The Red Riverman/Chaussini exacta was spot on as were Place recommendations on Notable Graduate, Red Riverman and Floral Beauty. Things would have been even better if Floral Beauty had won, and Deraasa just did not show much on her debut. She was finish far off though, so is to be followed closely in her next races.

On Friday, I like Watneya in the 16:00 Fillies Handicap race at Sandown. The Dubawi filly seems very progressive and kept on to finish third at 7 furlongs on her seasonal debut three weeks ago. I believe she should be in the first 3, so recommend her as a Place.

In the first race at York, Kieran Fallon is an interesting booking on Right Result from the Hannon yard. The Acclamation colt came out third of thirteen at 6 furlongs 9 days ago at Ripon but will definitely be suited by the drop in trip. Most of the field looks exposed and his main challenge could come from Pen Bal Crag of the Richard Fahey stable. I recommend Right Result as a Place.

The news are in that Australian super sprinter Black Caviar will come to England next year for the Royal Ascot 2012. I would have hoped to see her this year and my hope is she's still unbeaten this time next year and more importantly even better than now.

Place: Watneya, Right Result

Ladies Day

Rafael Nadal dismissed Soderling in 3 straight sets but Zarabajad came out 2nd after a very suspect ride from Johnny Murtagh. I think the Aga Khan jockey is the best in the business in Ireland but he did not seem to have his customary zest at the finish.

Talking tennis, I can't see past a Djokovic/Nadal final (again) in the French Open. Nadal should be too much to handle for Murray, and Djokovic certainly has the mental edge on the aging Federer. So I recommend Nadal and Djokovic to win their semi-final matches on Friday.

Friday is Oaks day in racing and there are 3 fillies/mares that I will be following closely. In the first race, I like Antara who makes her seasonal return for Godolphin. She clearly is the classiest of the bunch and the only question mark is her current fitness. Bin Suroor mentions that she will improve for the run, which indicates that she will not be at her peak. She won this race last year on her seasonal return as well, so the track and long layoff should not be of concern.  I recommend her as a Place prospect and see Timepiece from the Henry Cecil yard as her main opponent.

The Coronation Cup seems to be a 2 horse race between St Nicholas Abbey (SNA) and Midday. Dandino should be a close third if one of the two mentioned fails to fire. It's hard to forge a clear opinion on how good is SNA. If he runs to the potential that he showed as a 2-year old and confirms his win at Chester 28 days ago, he will be hard to beat. This race will see confirmation of whether he is a serious horse, one that "could walk on water" according to his trainer Aidan O'Brien. Midday is the more reliable to side with and is almost always in the frame. She gets my vote as a Place recommendation.

The Oaks race is very open in my opinion. I am not a huge fan of Blue Bunting although she surprised me considerably (and many others) by winning the 1000 Guineas. On pedigree she should have just enough stamina for the 12 furlongs being by Dynaformer and a middle-distance mare. She has never raced over 8 furlongs though, and with the speed she's shown in the Guineas, 10 furlongs might be a more suitable distance for her. I like Wonder of Wonders in this race. She has raced and won at the distance, and she's got that fantastic pedigree being out of All Too Beautiful, daughter of super mare Urban Sea. I see her being involved at the finish and I recommend her as a Place.

At Doncaster, I like Tortoni in the first race. The son of Teofilo has been placed in his first 2 races and I see him being in the frame again. Whether he actually wins depends on how good is Campanology from the Richard Hannon stable who have interestingly booked Johnny Murtagh for the ride. Tortoni is recommended as a Place.


Win: Nadal, Djokovic.
Place: Antara, Midday, Wonder of Wonders, Tortoni.

Week-end Preview

Rather average resultson Thursday where only 2 of the 4 recommendations hit the target. La Estrella and Solar Sky won, but the 2 Godolphin starters flopped badly with Huma Bird and Light Burst unplaced.

This coming week-end of racing is as exciting as I can ever remember, particularly because of the presence of foreign stars showcasing their talents. Let's start in the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock where Overdose finally gets the chance to justify his massive reputation as one of the best sprinters in the world. If he's anywhere near his best, he will win. In my opinion, the only horse that could give him some sort of challenge in this race is Kingsgate Native. Still, I think the Budapest Bullet is one level above and I recommend him to Win.

In the first race at Lingfield, I can see Crystal Gem from the Hannon yard to win or place in the 5-horse field. The yard is in great form and opposition does not look anything special. I recommend the Cadeaux Genereux filly as a Place.

In the 15:20 Listed Festival Stakes at Goodwood, Al Zir makes a lot of appeal. The 10 furlong distance will suit the Godolphin star for his debut, and barring any fitness issues, he should be in the first 3. He is thus recommended as a Place.

The Irish 2000 Guineas will be run on Saturday and this looks to be a very close contest. I like the chances of Zabarajad, who looks to progress from his second place a little more than a fortnight ago. Although there are some big names in the field like Dubawi Gold and Roderic O'Connor, there is nothing in there that screams as a banker. So, I would put a lightweight recommendation on Zabarajad to Place, as long as its Place odds are around or over 2/1.

Still at the Curragh on Sunday, there does not look like anything can stop So You Think in the Tattersalls Gold Cup. He's my punt of the week-end and is a highweight recommendation to Win.

In football, the Premier League will solve the last remaining piece of this year's puzzle, i.e, the relegation battle. There are 2 spots to be filled between most probably 3 teams; Wigan, Birmingham and Blackpool. All of the 3 relegation candidates will be travelling to teams that do not have much to play for as their last match. Wigan go to Stoke, Birmingham to Tottenham and Blackpool to Man Utd. So, much will decide on the hosts' team sheets at kick-off time. I cannot see any of the visitors winning and the most they can hope for is a valuable point, in my opinion. My feeling is that Wigan will lose at Stoke. Same for Blackpool where even a Man Utd B team have enough firepower to beat them. Birmingham might snatch a point that saves them at White Hart Lane, but they won't win there. So, for me, it's Wigan and Blackpool to go down, but it would be speculative to have a recommendation on the unfolding of this battle.


Win: Overdose, So You Think.

Place: Zabarajad, Crystal Gem, Al Zir.

Tuesday preview

A fantastic week-end really where 8 out of 9 recommendations won and the remaining one was voided. Dick Turpin,  Nadal, Ajax, Athletico Madrid, Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool, Barcelona all won, while Bayern Munich (luckily) drew for a voided bet.

In the Premier League, Man Utd won impressively against a resolute and well-organized Everton team. The Red Devils deserved the win, and Chicharito did not have a necessarily good game but still scored when it mattered. Chelsea gave themselves a chance as title pursuers by beating West Ham as expected, but I don't think they'll catch Man Utd. Arsenal, oh dear, are out of it.

This week is much about the Champions League semi-finals. Mostly everyone seems to be writing off Schalke. Even the players themselves see Man Utd as overwhelming favourites to go through, probably to ease the pressure off themselves. The reality is that this is by no means a done deal and Schalke is a really good team that has the capacity to beat the Mancunians. It's true that it looks like Man Utd has a sort of mini-mental blockage when it comes to German opposition in European semi-finals; Dortmund, Leverkusen, Munich (although last year, Man Utd were simply unlucky not to go through). But I don't think any type of such blockage will play into effect in this year's semi-finals. The more realistic of the 2 teams will win, as I think both matches will be very tight. If Man Utd play like it did in Munich last year, it will have every chance to win the first leg; on that night, they outclassed Bayern only to go down on defensive mistakes. Same for the return leg. The current form of the Red Devils right now makes me sway in their favour, and I recommend them as a draw-no-bet.

In racing, at Wolves 17:45, I like Wolfgang from the Hannon yard. This two year-old Amadeus Wolf colt is described as small but speedy by his patrons, and looks the one to beat among a string of maidens and newcomers. The yard can always have one ready first-time out, so I recommend Wolfgang as a Place bet.

At Yarmouth 16:10, Asraab from the Godolphin yard makes a lot of appeal on his seasonal return. This Oasis Dream colt has shown a lot of potential in his 2 starts, posting a win and a second. He should take all the beating in this handicap contest, and I put a Win recommendation on him.

Win: Asraab
Place: Wolfgang
Draw-no-bet: Man Utd

Week-end preview

My selections for the week-end.

In the Premier League, Man Utd will be keen to get maximum points in their remaining home games. They host Everton against which they have an excellent home record in recent years. The Toffees are a very good team and if the hosts are sloppy, they could be in for a surprise. However, I think they will be well aware of the high stakes and unless there is a bad luck hanging over the team (like against Man City where they deserved at least a draw in the FA Cup semi-final), they should prevail. I cannot see them getting beaten so I recommend them as draw-no-bet. Same for pursuers Chelsea who seem to have hit some consistent form and should overcome West Ham at Stamford Bridge. The Hammers are quite mediocre on the road, and should not be of much opposition to Malouda and co. I also like Liverpool's chances at home against Birmingham. Kenny Dalglish is doing fine things for his beloved club and I must admit I was not expecting the success that he's getting. They should be too much for Birmingham at Anfield as the visitors are lacking firepower in the striking department with the injuries to Zigic and possibly Martins as well. Liverpool as draw-no-bet looks safe.

In La Liga, Barcelona will try to put its midweek despair to rest by beating Osasuna at home. I cannot see them getting defeated at the Nou Camp but I am not sure what kind of team will be fielded by Guardiola, particularly in light of the upcoming Champions League games against Madrid. I recommend Barcelona as draw-no-bet. I like Athletico Madrid's chances at home against Levante. Aguero and his teammates have posted solid games recently and are on a good consistent run. I see them overcoming Levante and are recommended as Win.

In the Bundesliga, Bayern Munich have found a new lease of life under new coach Jonker. Even without suspended Robben, I can't see them losing on their visit to lowly Frankfurt. Bayern as draw-no-bet is recommended.

In the Dutch league, I like Ajax as it hosts Excelsior. A straightforward win on the hosts is recommended.

Finally, in racing, Dick Turpin makes his seasonal debut in the Bet365 Mile at Sandown. The Hannon stable has won the race in the past 4 years, and I expect it to win again tomorrow. Dick Turpin looks in great form according to the trainer and is a class above the rest of this field.. He should be in the first 2 and is recommended as a Place.

Win: Ajax, Athletico Madrid
Draw-no-bet: Barcelona, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man Utd, Bayern Munich
Place: Dick Turpin

Title decider

Retainer won under a great Ryan Moore ride, so the  recommendation was good. Kieren Fallon tried everything on the runner-up but the Hannon colt was just too good. Moore v/s Fallon, I reckon we'll see more of  this rivalry as the season progresses, since they seem to be the main protagonists for the jockey title, according to most.

Back to football where I was reading with interest that a recent survey showed that 80% of surveyed managers in the Premier League thought that Man Utd would go on to win the title this year (75% of the managers were surveyed). I am not sure exactly what date the survey was done and what were the standings at that point, but 80% seems a rather high number considering that not so long ago, everyone was saying that Arsenal had the much easier remaining fixtures. So I just went to look at those to have an idea of my expectations for both teams from their remaining games. Below are the potential points (in brackets) I attribute to them.

Arsenal Total: 18.
Blackburn (3), Blackpool (3), Liverpool (3), Tottenham (0), Bolton (1), Man Utd (1), Stoke (3), Aston Villa (3), Fulham (1)

Man Utd Total: 16
West Ham (1), Fulham (3), Newcastle (1), Everton (3), Arsenal (1), Chelsea (1), Blackburn (3), Blackpool (3)

According to the above exercise, then yes, it seems that Man Utd looks good to win the title as it has a 5 point advantage already. Obviously this system is very flawed since my point attribution is speculative and based on their current form. So many things can change in the coming weeks, such as injuries, loss of form etc. Arsenal have the advantage of having only to focus on the Premier League while Man Utd are still in 3 cups. Many uncertainties will come into play; like who'd thought Arsenal will lose 2 points at West Brom while Utd will win with 10 men against Bolton with 2 minutes remaining last week-end?

However, there are 2 things that seem more or less certain though. First, the match at the Emirates will play a huge factor in the title race. This is a 6-point match. Second, let's go back to the overwhelming 80% manager vote for Man Utd. It's called the Ferguson factor. When everything is on the line, most would rather have Ferguson as the manager than Wenger. Man Utd have that fear factor, the feeling that they will grind out results. Arsenal have the choke factor, they have yet to prove they can duke it out with anyone no matter how difficult the conditions are. There are no easy games at this point, even when they are battling Stoke or Blackpool.

Again, it would pure speculation to say that Man Utd has it won already. That's why there is no recommendation from me here. But they are definitely looking good, particularly that their recent injury crisis seems to have considerably alleviated with many key players coming back.

Leicester racing preview

Richard Hannon's stable had an amazing last season which eventually led it to the trainer's championship title. While the successes of Canford Cliffs, Dick Turpin and Paco Boy contributed a large part to their accumulated prize money, the bulk of their wins came from their strong juvenile string. This year, the stable has started strong again, which seems to indicate that wins will continue to flow this season for the stable from Everleigh.

Retainer was one of the many 2-year olds that caught the eye for the stable last year, easily winning its only start, before breaking a leg bone to be cast off for the rest of the season. He makes his comeback at Leicester in the 6 furlong condition race at 16:20. If he is back near his best, he should take all the beating. Given that he's been away for nearly a year, will be carrying top-weight, and the opposition is decent, he might need the run. Still, he should be in the first 2, and a Place recommendation on the Hannon charge looks safe.

Place: Retainer