Toronado to be followed by Dawn Approach

This week-end is all about Flat racing with the first Classics in Britain being held at Newmarket and the Kentucky Derby looking a wide-open affair at Churchill Downs.

There are only 2 names to remember for the 2000 Guineas; Toronado and Dawn Approach. The winner will come out of the two, and the loser will very possibly make the first 3. Not so long ago, Richard Hughes was claiming that Canford Cliffs was the best he'd ridden. He now thinks that Toronado is on par or potentially  better than CC. That's a big statement. The unbeaten son of High Chaparral won the Craven impressively. He's got the cobwebs out of that run. His connections think he's in the form of his life. The same connections won the 2000 Guineas 4 times and recently placed with CC, Dick Turpin and Dubawi Gold. So, they know how to prepare the horse for the race. Distance will not be a problem. Bar an accident, I cannot see Toronado out of the first 2. In fact, I think he will win.

Dawn Approach is the unbeaten son of New Approach. He's won all his 5 races like his sire, as a juvenile. New Approach was heavy favourite for the Guineas but found Henrythenavigator a head too good in the 2009 Classic. It could be a bis repetita scenario for his son as well. Trainer Jim Bolger has never won the Guineas, but that doesn't mean that he cannot prepare them right for the occasion. He's placed recently with New Approach, as well as Gan Amhras. He couldn't have better words for NA leading to the race; his preparation has been ideal with no hiccups and he has gotten the expected improvement from the horse to be a leading player this year. Very encouraging words which make me think that NA towers over the rest of the field, bar Toronado.

From the rest, Aidan's O'Brien's horses always run well in the Classic, even without a prep run. He won it with Camelot last year and he definitely knows how to get them a winning chance in the race. Whichever of George Vancouver, Mars or Christoforo Colombo should be the best of the rest.

I have hardly any doubt it will be between Toronado and Dawn Approach. Where Toronado edges it for me is his advantage of having had a prep run. Also, there looks to be pace in the race which will better suit the Hannon colt. Dawn Approach should follow him home.

The 1000 Guineas looks a wide open affair but I feel French raider What a Name could spoil the local party. She's definitely a very talented daughter of Mr Greeley and the mile will be right up her alley. The vibes are very positive from her yard after her convincing seasonal re-appearance win in the Prix Imprudence. She is a Place selection.

In the US, the Run for the Roses looks a very competitive one. Much of it will depend on the conditions of the race and any hard-luck for the horses to weave their way through a 20-horse field. Orb is the slight favourite and if he does not suffer from a horror trip, he should be a leading player. I'll stand on the sidelines on this one but any exotic punt needs to have Orb in there.


Win: Toronado
Place: Dawn Approach, What a Name

Pantheon of the greats

What a week-end! Every single selection hit, except for hapless Arsenal who managed to go lose at Norwich. Obviously, the main talking point after Saturday was the place of Frankel among the all-time greats. Best horse there has ever been, has been a very popular clamour. There is no right or wrong answer on this one and I stand among those that will fall short of calling him the best ever. He could very well be the best of them all, but it impossible for me to give him that ultimate accolade with absolute confidence or certainty.

Don't get me wrong; Frankel is an unbelievable beast, the likes of which I've never seen before. He's the greatest miler of all time. Better, I consider him the best racehorse to have ever run up to 10 furlongs. If there was any match race from 8 to10 furlongs and I could select any horse, it would be him. He's the most dominant horse that has ever run at those distances. He's proved it by beating champions of the caliber of Canford Cliffs, Excelebration, and Cirrus des Aigles. He put anything that opposed him to submission.

But he hasn't run at 12 furlongs, the distance of reference for the best of the best, in my opinion. This is the distance of the Derbies, of the most-prestigious Arc, of the King George. This is the distance that tells the difference in class between the great and the immortal ones. The awesome Dubai Millenium lost his invincibility on his Derby attempt, a lack of stamina that was the cause of his only defeat. This is the distance that some mighty champions of Montjeu toyed with the their challengers. This is the distance that made the legends of Dancing Brave, Ribot, Deep Impact, Zarkava, Sea Bird, Nijinski, to name a few.

Frankel did not attempt that mythical distance, and the travesty of it all, is that he seemed to have the pedigree, being a son of Galileo. Had he won a high-caliber Group 1 at 12 furlongs, he would be my undisputed champion of all time. Would he have flopped like Dubai Millenium? Or would he have been as dominant as he proved at shorter distances? Have would he have reacted on the Longchamp straight with Ribot working on his inside and Deep Impact, Zarkava and Dancing Brave breathing down his neck with their dazzling finish, for the ultimate Arc? Most probably, he would have trounced all of them, but alas, he has no form to prove it. On similar lines, Black Caviar is possibly the greatest sprinter of all time, but she's just that, a sprinter; not the greatest racehorse there has been.

Not many champions end their career undefeated. The mystique behind Frankel is that he can not only boast he never got beaten, but he destroyed almost any horse that crossed his path. Such was his dominance. He's racing's version of Lionel Messi; he won everything there is to win while beating every record, except winning the World Cup. Can he be considered the greatest?

There has never been a certainty like Frankel in race punting, at least not in these times. He will be missed. He's the benchmark against which all future milers and 10-furlong performers will be gauged. I believe he will stay thus for a long long time. Frankel was a destroyer, possibly not the greatest racehorse, but certainly the most dominant thoroughbred there has been.

Irish 2000 Guineas

All 11 entries stood their ground for the Irish 2000 Guineas on Saturday. I believe the winner will come from this pack, in no particular order of preference; Born To Sea, Hermival, Parish Hall, Power, Reply, Takar and Trumpet Major. The others are simply not of the same class as the above.

Born To Sea disappointed in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket. Connections can point to the soft ground but I think he's more of a sprinter-type, and his pedigree confirms that, being by Invincible Spirit. Over the course of the year, it could be that can get a mile against seasoned milers, but this race might possibly come a little too soon for him after his flop a few weeks back. I think he can run a Place at best.

Hermival sprang a surprise when coming home third at Newmarket. This son of Dubawi should have no concern regarding the distance, although he will not be getting his preferred soft ground at the Curragh. He can be involved in the placings again but I don't think he will win.

Winner of last year's Dewhurst, Parish Hall makes his seasonal appearance in the Classic. It remains to be seen in what kind of disposition he is, and how well he's progressed over the winter. Connections must be bullish because he's been the subject of major market support in the run-in to the race. It's impossible to gauge his chances against horses that have already had one or two important outings already, but if he wins this, he could turn out to be the top miler of his generation. It seems to be safer to have him in the frame than an outright win.

Power looks to be the No 1 representative from the Ballydoyle camp, despite having tailed off at Newmarket, seemingly because of the soft ground conditions. He's clearly got a lot of talent, but as a sprinter and not as an outright miler. A slow pace will play to his advantage, but it's hard to see him reverse form with the other contenders from the 2000 Guineas and take this.

If there is to be a huge upset, I would not be surprised if it came from Reply, again from the Aidan O'Brien camp. Unless he's already been tasked to take the role of the non-honourable pace-maker, he is making his seasonal appearance and has unexposed form. He has been placed third in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes last year, so his race history has to be respected. If he is to be given a proper chance to run his race, this might be a value pick for long punters.

Takar is the ride of Johnny Murtagh for the Aga Khan. He's clearly a smart sort who's won his last race at listed level very comfortably. That race should have brought the necessary improvement in him but he will feel the difference in class. He might have his say in elite company, but a place at this stage looks more of a possibility than a win.

Finally, Trumpet Major represents the Richard Hannon stable, and comes from a honourable fourth place at Newmarket. He looked the winner two furlongs out and while connections point to the soft ground for his downfall, I think he just might not have been suited to the dip of the Rowley track. The firmer track might be to his advantage, and the fact that he stayed on in the 2000 Guineas means that the distance will suit well. I think he's sitting on a big race.

All said and done, I like Trumpet Major as an each-way. The Hannon camp won this race with Canford Cliffs a couple of years back, and they look set to strike again, or at least play a major role again. I think Takar and Parish Hall look poised to run well and complete the placings.

Each-way: Trumpet Major

Honour Roll 2011

Looking back at 2011 in which human or equine athletes made their marks; as usual, some disappointed, others confirmed on their promises, while a few others surpassed all expectations of them. These are my 3 stars of 2011 in sports.

Frankel - the Galileo colt, regarded on every handicap scale, as the best horse of  2011, went unbeaten in 5 races. His greatness was confirmed by the manner of his win in the 2000 Guineas where he literally hammered the race in a visually-awesome catch-me-if-you-can style. He went on to dispose of the then king-miler Canford Cliffs in convincing fashion. Described as the best ever by none other than his trainer, Henry Cecil, Frankel will remain in training as a 4-year old, to the obvious delight of racing fans. I rate him as the best miler to have ever raced on turf and can't wait for him to show he's the best ever at 10 furlongs this year. His sire being Galileo, I don't foresee him having any problems at the distance. Should he still be dominant, I would love to see him have a crack at either the Arc or the Breeders Cup Classic on dirt; more something of hope than confidence, as I am not so sure that is the planned plot by connections.

Black Caviar - the Australian superstar mare, quite simply the greatest sprinter in the world today, went 8 for 8 in 2011. Lifetime, she's undefeated in a staggering 16 races. I just cannot wait for her to step on European shores, particularly at Ascot, to show her greatness. No sprinter in Australia comes close to her; as a matter of fact, they try to avoid her. Since the horses Down Under have been dominating the Ascot sprint races for years, one can only imagine the effect she will have coming here. Ascot might never have seen the likes of it ever before; she will bring down the roof!

Novak Djokovic - my athlete of the year. Such displays of dominance in an unforgettable season where he notched 3 Grand Slam tournaments with a 70-6 record. The undisputed No1 in the world today as he looks to have locked mastery over Federer and Nadal. I thought Nadal was showing that he was THE one to follow, but the Serb has turned up the notch ever higher and crushed Nadal every time they met. His dominance has been surprising to say the least, but it certainly looks set to continue in 2012 if he stays healthy. Rafael Nadal has a big mental hurdle to overcome if he's to usurp Djokovic this year.

An Awesome destroyer

He came, he conquered and he convinced. Frankel lived up to his billing and removed any question marks as to who is the best miler in the world. Canford Cliffs had never taken such a beating, he was pummeled into submission by a freak of nature. Doubters can point to Cliff's dislike for the course in hanging left, or to his relative weight surcharge, but in truth, the manner of Frankel's win would indicate that he would win anytime, any place, at weight-level against Hannon's champion.

Only 2 years ago, we were talking of Sea The Stars as being the best that there ever has been. Already, Frankel is being hailed along the same lines. He can lead the field, he can come from behind, this horse is showing he can do it all. The racing world is awaiting with baited breath his next race; supposedly a Champion Stakes race at 10 furlongs, a distance some feel will stretch him. A race that will either enhance his growing legend, or define him to just being a great miler. Bring on So You Think, the voices are clamoring.

Cliffs was trounced and in coming second vindicated the Place recommendation put on him.

The Galway festival is under way in Ireland and on Thursday, I like Anam Allta in the 15:35 Fillies Handicap. She kept on for third on her seasonal debut last month at the Curragh and that race should have brought her on. She has shown a lot of ability in her light 3-race career and looks to among the finishers. She's recommended as a Place.

At Nottingham, I also like Al Mahmeyah in the first race. This 2-year old Teofilo filly ran on to be second on her latest start at Kempton and looks to be the class act in this rather exposed field. The Hannon yard always provides for a formidable string of juveniles and Al Mahmeyah looks set to continue their dominance in that area. The main opposition might come from Ashbina from the Haggas yard who's currently in good form. I recommend Al Mahmeyah as a Place as well.


Place: Anam Allta, Al Mahmeyah

The world's best miler

Strong Suit won well for a good recommendation. When in form, he's clearly a notch above anything else in that race at the distance.

They were 3 in contention, now they are down to 2. By soundly beating Goldikova, Canford Cliffs removed one formidable foe that could have halted his quest for being the world's best miler horse. Only the mighty Frankel now stands in his way. It's amazing how these 2 champions have scared away the opposition none of the colts that ran in the French, Irish or English Guineas (besides Frankel himself) will be present. Rajsaman and Rio de La Plata will be the only other ones trying to provide some challenge but it looks more like a lost cause really.

The official handicappers have it that if Frankel repeats his devastating run of the Guineas, he will be 10 pounds clear of Canford Cliffs' best and should win easily. There is no way, in any shape or form, that Canford Cliffs is 10 pounds inferior to Frankel. Unless tomorrow's race proves otherwise, it looks like these 2 colts will not be too far from each other at the finish; it might be by the bob of a head, a neck or a length, but it won't be by many lengths if they both produce their best, in my opinion.

Canford Cliffs is the real deal. After showcasing his abilities at 2, there were question marks whether he could shed his sprinter-type tag during his Classic season. After all, most progenies of Tagula would find a mile too taxing. But Cliffs can easily stay the distance and there are not many horses that possess his finishing kick. He's answered all question marks about him and while the course cambers of Goodwood are of concern to  his trainer, Hannon, there's not much of a chink in his armour.

Frankel, the horse on everyone's lips because no-one knows yet what he's capable or incapable of doing. After a stellar 2-year old season, he devastated his peers in such a grand fashion in the Guineas that talks of being "the best ever" were circulating around him. Yet, despite him winning the St James Palace Stakes at Ascot, the manner of his win mostly disappointed the racing world. He "only won" but did not display his dominant self that is expected of him. Connections were quick to point to the tactics and his rider seemed to go at pains to say that he had lots of horse left. One thing that every one seems to agree on is that such tactics will doom him against Canford Cliffs. Being a 3-year old, Frankel will have the advantage of an 8-pound deduction in the race. Not that he would really need it, but that could be the decisive factor in separating the two. This is certainly the reason the bookies have him at odds-against with Canford Cliffs at a more generous 1.5/1.

The racing world wants an undisputed champion, and if possible, an overly-dominant one. Frankel fits the bill and carries with him the hopes and dreams of an ever-increasing legion of fans. With Canford Cliffs, the expectations are more predictable and they are huge indeed. The ground will be good and will suit both. There will (hopefully) not be any hard-luck stories in this small field. In the end, the difference might be the weight difference. As far as a punting certainty goes, Canford Cliffs will be in the first 2, so is a sure Place recommendation. Frankel should be in the placings as well, but Cliffs is the surer thing. After all, he very well might win this thing and be of interest to punters looking for value.

This one should be a classic. Come to the fore the world's greatest miler. 

Place: Canford Cliffs

Glorious Goodwood

Nathaniel came and won in a King George that will probably be remembered for the breaking down of Rewilding more than anything else. Some things transpired from this race.

That Nathaniel is a very good progressive racehorse that can mix it up with some of the best middle-distance horses. He validated his connections' bold move to supplement him in the race. As I was mentioning, John Gosden knows what he's doing. But Nathaniel's current 5/1 price for the Arc is way too short. The French horses won't give him such an easy race. At this price, he's a huge lay proposition in my opinion.

Workforce apparently got cut in one of his legs and drifted left-wards in the straight. How that affected his chances is up to debate. Something about the Ascot racecourse just does not go well with him. I would not discard him in the rest of his races because of this defeat. On his day, he can give the very best a run for their money; he's just proving to be a little inconsistent.

This race confirmed that St Nicholas Abbey is just not the superstar he's been billed out to be. A very good horse he is, but not a great one. He had no excuses in coming third. He should still be a threat at 12 furlong races, but on ability alone, any hope to his fans that he is the cream of the crop can be safely dismissed.

This week is all about the showdown between Frankel and Canford Cliffs in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood on Wednesday. On the first opening day tomorrow, Strong Suit and Delegator look poised to mount a big challenge in the Group 2 Lennox Stakes at 7 furlongs. The rather softish ground looks to be in favour of Strong Suit. Since his wind operation this term, the Rahy colt from the Hannon stable seems to have found his old form back and comes into the race with a strong 3rd in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat in France. The distance will suit and he looks sure to be among the finishers in this rather exposed field. I recommend him as an each-way punt.

Each-way: Strong Suit

Royal Ascot Wednesday - The Monster

Off to a flyer! Canford Cliffs and Goldikova justified all the hopes placed on them by filling the first 2 places, and Frankel also won as expected. Absolutely smashing start with the recommendations.

By beating Goldikova fair and square, Canford Cliffs can be crowned the king miler of the world at this moment. Hopefully Frankel can meet both of those champions in a championship mile race later this year. The Galileo colt did not produce the fire works many were expecting, and opinions are abundantly diverging as to what to make of his narrow win. My take is that the connections got the tactics wrong on him and he was given a harder race than he should have. Probably it would have been best for his jockey to set for home two furlongs from home, and not four! Once he's in clear daylight, it's hard to gauge if he was idling or actually tiring. Anyway, both mile races were a joy to watch.

Wednesday is all about the Monster from Down Under. So You Think should have no trouble landing the Prince of Wales Stakes. The opposition is not feeble, but SYT is just a class apart. Twice Over will be better suited to this 10 furlong distance than the Lockinge mile, but he seems to be missing a step this year. Anyway, he's not of the class of SYT. Rewilding runs well fresh but will be better suited by 12 furlongs. Planteur is a high-class horse that I really like. The distance will really suit him and he's the one that can get close to SYT. But bar any accident, SYT should have way too much class for all of them. So You Think to win is the recommendation.

Win: So You Think

Musings from the week-end

Apologies for the time off updating the blog. It all started with the Blogger web sites problems, which seemed to take forever to be fixed, and which prevented me from giving the week-ends predictions.

Going back to my last predictions last Wednesday, they were all bang on. Noble Graduate and Last Crusade were the exacta I mentioned. Midday won on her return and Lyric Street won his weak race as well. West Ham have been relegated at the week-end and I just couldn`t see it otherwise given their poor away form all season.

Doing some round-up in what I thought were the major headlines this past week-end in the world of sports that I select to follow. Nothing much new to add in football with Man Utd and Barcelona claiming the spoils as expected. Man City won the FA Cup but I join the chorus of disapprovals regarding this game being played on a usual Saturday game day. If the FA Cup has lost its past lustre, it`s not because Man Utd opted out of it one year a decade back to play the World Club Championship in Brazil. It`s not because it was played in Cardiff for a few years while the old Wembley was being restored. It`s because of things like this where the recognition of the Final being traditionally played on the Saturday following the season end, is lost among a day of Saturday fixtures. Typically, the worst nightmare scenario for the FA ominously occured right this year when Man City`s Cup triumph coincided with Man Utd`s clinching of the Premier League title. While the City of Manchester had every reason to be in cheers, two of the biggest headlines in English football had to be shared into one.

The thing with the FA Cup is that its magic transcends British shores. Ask a French football fan about The Cup and he won`t be talking about La Coupe de France. Nor will a Spanish be talking of Copa del Rey. The Cup, as they know it, is the FA Cup. And sadly its significance is being lost by the very people that were tasked to restore it to its previous glory.

I am being amazed by what is unfolding in tennis. If someone had told me at the start of the year that Nadal would be playing some of his best tennis and still lose 4 finals in a row to Djokovic, I would have been laying all day and night. I`m glad for my pocket that I never got that chance. Djokovic has been playing unbelievable tennis for the last while, and nothing from the past could have suggested he would be that dominant against his peers in that way. From a punting point of view, he now seems value every time he meets a Top 5 opponent, since that`s about the only time his odds are not around 1.01, and he seems he`ll still find the way to win. The Serb is the most improved athlete I can think of om years. He was good, but nowhere near that kind of good.

In racing, Canford Cliffs confirmed all the positive vibes surrounding him by dominating the Lockinge. I`m like the rest of racing fans and awaiting a Frankel, Goldikova, Cliffs showdown. I just hope that the mare is still at her best, and if she can put the young male pretenders to their place, then so be it.

Last word in golf where Tiger is making headlines for the wrong reasons by pulling out of the Player`s Championship due to injury. Suddenly, everyone is questioning whether his quest for beating Jack Nicklaus` Major record is still possible. In my opinion, it`s probably too early to have any kind of judgement regarding his abilities or record quest. The gap between him and the rest has certainly narrowed a considerable bit, and the young guns like Mc Ilroy won`t be feeling the inferiority complex that the rest of the field have. It`s game on for Tiger and he needs a big win at a Major this year to get a good part of his aura back. US Open may be? we`ll see.

Leicester racing preview

Richard Hannon's stable had an amazing last season which eventually led it to the trainer's championship title. While the successes of Canford Cliffs, Dick Turpin and Paco Boy contributed a large part to their accumulated prize money, the bulk of their wins came from their strong juvenile string. This year, the stable has started strong again, which seems to indicate that wins will continue to flow this season for the stable from Everleigh.

Retainer was one of the many 2-year olds that caught the eye for the stable last year, easily winning its only start, before breaking a leg bone to be cast off for the rest of the season. He makes his comeback at Leicester in the 6 furlong condition race at 16:20. If he is back near his best, he should take all the beating. Given that he's been away for nearly a year, will be carrying top-weight, and the opposition is decent, he might need the run. Still, he should be in the first 2, and a Place recommendation on the Hannon charge looks safe.

Place: Retainer

Start of the Flat season

As Dubai racing fades away, the start of Flat season is upon us for hopefully a great season ahead. Lots to look forward to;

- the re-appearance of St Nicholas Abbey, the Ballydoyle prodigy who went missing last year. Has he overcome the problems that plagued his last campaign, and get back his best form to confirm the high expectations of his trainer and fans?

- the confirmation of Frankel, whose potential of being a wonder horse will be the most scrutinized after his stellar 2-year old season, and utmost praises from his trainer Henry Cecil.

- the return of superstar Goldikova for one more crack at the Breeders Cup Mile, Can she yet again put away any new pretender to her crown at a Mile? Or will Canford Cliffs avenge ex-stablemate Paco Boy for all the whipping he got at the hands of the super mare?

- the coming of So You Think, the Australasian superstar, who in my opinion, has no equal in the world in the middle-distance division. He's got he most beautiful action I've seen in a horse.

- maybe, the clash of super sprinters at Royal Ascot? Rocket Man, Black Caviar, Overdose, JJ the Jet Plane... hopefully all these sprint kings can make it on the British shores and give a world-class spectacle on the grandest scene, in lieu of the miserable showing of local sprinters.

Finally, hopefully new stars will emerge from the Godolphin, Ballydoyle and Juddmonte camps. The epic finish between Khawlah and Master of the Hounds in the UAE Derby on Saturday, is hopefully a harbinger of the renewal of hostilities between the 2 racing super powers. Racing has been missing this rivalry. Add a rejuvenated Henry Cecil yard to the mix, and we could have some spectacular racing ahead of us.