Royal Ascot 2013 - Day 1

Animal Kingdom towers above the field in the opening race Prince of Wales Stakes at Ascot. If he is anywhere near his true form and has no problem adapting to the undulations of the track, there is really nothing in the field that can beat him. Signs from connections have been positive throughout his preparations so it looks like he will be tough to beat. Should he fail to fire, I see Elusive Kate and Trade Storm as his nearest pursuers. The former runs very well fresh and has had good form in Group 1 races last year. Trade Storm has been a revelation in Dubai and if he gets the firm ground that he relishes, he has strong claims to be in the placings. Animal Kingdom is short-priced but he should win.

The King's Stand Stakes is an intriguing contest with Shea Shea, the Mike de Kock representative, being another short-priced favourite. This is a big field of 19 runners, so it won't be a surprise if he's turned over. The Aussies have a great record in the race and will be represented by Shamexpress, who although does not seem to have the star power or reputation of Choisir, Takeover Target and Miss Andretti, should be be respected. I think Reckless Abandon represents tremendous value in this race. The son of Exchange rate lost  his unbeaten tag on this seasonal return this year when a good third to Kingsgate Native in the Betfred Temple Stakes a few weeks ago. This race will have brought him on nicely and he's shown very good speed in all his races to suggest that he can be one of the premier sprinters in the country if kept at the 5-6 furlong distance. I see value in having him in the placings.

Finally, the St James Palace stakes looks set to be a dandy. The rather shocking return of Dawn Approach has turned the race upside down. If he's truly recovered from the disastrous Derby and is still the horse that won the Guineas, then he must have a live chance to win. Magician is a top-drawer horse in his own right and his backers will be eager to see if the setback in his preparation will have any effect on race day. Despite his Guineas flop, Toronado is still highly regarded in the Richard Hannon camp. I think we can throw away that race. He showed great speed and the way he floundered in the end definitely meant that something had bothered him. Very possibly his newly-fitted spoon-bit might be the solution to the issue. The vibes from the connections are most positive and I think there is a great chance that he will run to his full potential. I think he's the value Place punt of the race.

Win: Animal Kingdom
Place: Reckless Abandon, Toronado

Breeze for Madrid

A winning week-end as both Real Madrid and Animal Kingdom won. PSG scraped though with a draw against Montpellier for a voided draw-no-bet.

Confidence goes to Real again in their Champions League tie against CSKA Moscow. I see the Los Blancos going far in this competition and they are in supreme form at the moment. Mourinho has beaten CSKA before and knows how to win there even in sub-zero temperatures and an artificial pitch to deal with. Besides, the Moscovites have just resumed their league fixtures, contrary to the other in-season European teams, so they will be found wanting against the runaway leaders of La Liga. I see Madrid easily qualifying over 2 rounds, so it's easy to recommend them To Qualify. Also, their current form should see them comfortably deal with the hosts in the first leg itself; they are recommended as a strong draw-no-bet.

Draw-no-bet: Real Madrid

To Qualify: Real Madrid

Week-end preview

Rerouted came out a good Place in third behind Delegator, but the good selection was offset with Rio de la Plata finishing a non-threatening 7th in the mile race. Two bad runs out of two for Rio de la Plata at Meydan, gives enough credence to the fact that the son of Rahy does not like the track, as was the fear in the previous post.

This week-end will be quieter than usual with the FA Cup matches taking over from the EPL. The competition is a breeding ground for upsets, more so because even the big guns don't always field in their best teams. The certainty level of any match is almost nil, which makes it better to skip analyzing the fixture list altogether from a punting point of view.

Looking at La Liga, and Real Madrid welcome Santander. In normal circumstances, this is a straight win for the hosts. Given their comfortable cushion at the top, and with a Champions League game coming up, will Mourinho field his best team? Possibly not! But I expect him to field a team good enough to win the 3 points. Real is recommended as a Win, but throw this away if the starting line-up on Saturday is close to being the reserve team itself!

La Ligue 1 sees a match of leaders between Montpellier and PSG. The latter will certainly look at the home field advantage to try to extend their 1-point lead. Ancelotti has had his men in pretty fine shape and form since his arrival and I expect him to come out with the right tactical nous to overcome the visitors. I recommend PSG as a draw-no-bet.

In racing, Animal Kingdom, winner of last year's Kentucky Derby makes his seasonal re-appearance at Gulfstream Park on turf. The son of Leroidesanimaux will use this outing as a springboard to the Dubai World Cup next month. His bullet works have looked promising and although he shouldn't be in peak condition, he should have too much class for the field. I expect him to Win.


Win: Real Madrid, Animal Kingdom
Draw-no-bet: PSG