Arc 2022 - Japan at long last ?

ParisLongchamp hosts the greatest Flat race of the year on Sunday. There is nothing that comes close in terms of prestige and there is no doubt that its reputation would have been further enhanced if it could do without the deluge of rain that bestows upon the racetrack at this time of the year. Let's face it; countless champions have failed to act on the heavy ground and many have opted to bypass it altogether based solely on the underfoot conditions. It is what it is, the Arc is the most coveted of them all, particularly to the Japanese, who I believe, have a monstrous chance this year.

Ah... memories of Deep Impact, the greatest of all the Japanese thoroughbreds. How mismanaged he was, leading the pack, when he was the best closing finisher of them all. And he failed the drug test, pure incompetence from the trainer! And Orfevre, the mad genius, the most talented of them all. He was coasting 100 yards from the finish, you could have bet your life Japan had finally hit its holy grail. And the inevitable happened, and Japanese hearts had never been so broken. 

But the Japanese thoroughbred has arrived. Delta Blues and Pop Rock for a 1-2 in the Melbourne Cup. So many Japanese wins at the Dubai Carnival: Victoire Pisa, Heart's Cry, Almond Eye, Just a Way and recently Shahryar to name a few. Deidre winning the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood. And finally they conquered America with Loves Only You and Marche Lorraine last year.

The only bastion left is the Arc. So many seconds in there and this year could be the one when they make the long-awaited breach. They will be a 4-strong contingent: Titleholder, Deep Bond, Do Deuce and Stay Foolish. None of them is on a par with Deep Impact or Orfevre, but they might not have to be. Deep Bond probably does not belong but the other 3 can have their say.

Do Deuce is the 3-year old Japan Derby winner. He was somewhat disappointing in his prep race, the Prix Niel, finishing only 4th, but that was his first race after a layoff and should be in a better disposition with the cobwebs removed. Definitely has an outside chance.

Stay Foolish was mighty impressive winning in Riyadh and Meydan at the start of the year. He definitely has the experience for those big races. He is definitely suited for a bigger distance than a mile and a half but if it is a stamina-sapping contest, he might vie for the the places.

Then we have Titleholder, who I believe, could be The One. Like Stay Foolish and Deep Bond, this is a stayer with an abundance of stamina and winner of the Japanese St Leger. But this middle-class performer has a lot of class, matched with speed enough to win a top-class mile and a half race. He usually figures prominently or takes control of his races, submits his opponents to the ground by leading the line with blistering speed. It is almost obvious that he will take a serious option for the lead on Sunday and if he is 5 lengths clear entering the straight, it could be Sayonara baby time for Japan! This horse has the potential of setting fractions enough to demoralize the likes of an unproven-at-the-distance star like Vadeni!

Out of the rest of the pack, I will note the following 3 as the main contenders to Titleholder: Torquator Tasso, Alpinista and Luxembourg. Tasso is the reigning champion, the one who shocked the world last year by beating a strong field that included Tarnawa and Hurricane Lane. It was no fluke, Tasso was the best on the day, winning while having to cover a lot of ground on the outside. But the heavy footing was his best ally. If the conditions are similar this Sunday, Tasso has a major chance. And it doesn't hurt to have Dettori as rider. I think Tasso can and will run huge.

Alpinista has won 7 races on the trot and relishes the distance. She's beaten Tasso before and will get the advantageous 3 pounds allowance as a mare. If she continues on her fantastic form, she can be a proper danger to the males. Based on her record, she cannot be under-estimated.

Finally, Luxembourg, the favourite. Mighty impressive although beaten in the 2000 Guineas, he was struck with a big layoff due to injury. He's come back great, winning a Group 3 in a rather hard-fought manner and then the Irish Champion Stakes where he finally showcased all the good that connections throught of him. Being a Camelot, there is no doubt he will find the distance right up his alley. His profile going into the race looks very good. I think he will be in the whereabouts at the finish but it could be there are one or two that show better class on the day. 

Imagine the scene; Titleholder leading El Condor Pasa-style entering the mythical ParisLongchamp straight, and showing no signs of letting up. Roared on by the Japanese crowd in the stands, spurred by thousands in front of their tvs in the wee-hours of the morning, Jap time. Could there be a better climax to a race when he flashes past the post, champion-style? The expectation of a nation finally met. Their dream come true. The Holy Grail attained. Could Sunday be that day?

Win: Titleholder

Road to Kentucky

Thunder Snow might have won the showpiece Dubai World Cup on Saturday but it was really Mendelssohn that got jaws dropping in the UAE Derby. Out-of-the-ordinary performances do happen in Flat racing but they are an infrequent occurrence; Winx has done a few in the past years, so did Frankel, Black Caviar and Deep Impact. The manner of their wins left the gallery in awe.

On Saturday, many people were expecting Godolphin's Gold Town dominate the Derby in the desert. Others had tipped Mendelssohn but certainly none would have predicted the manner of his victory by 18.5 lengths! For a Group 2 Flat race with some smart types, this was a staggering performance by the budding superstar from Coolmore. In the immediate aftermath, he was installed co-favourite for the Kentucky Derby and will definitely give trainer O'Brien a first live chance at landing his first American classic. It's hard not be excited by the potential of a European-based horse landing the most prestigious prize in American racing. Fingers crossed.

A few hours after the Mendelssohn demonstration, Audible won the Florida Derby in convincing style that makes me believe he will be a serious candidate for the prize on the first Saturday of May. It's amazing to think that the horse's owners, the China Horse Club, just ventured in racing only a few years back and are now on the cusp of winning the KD. The irony of it all is that Teo Ah King, the founder of the China Horse Club, and Coolmore have been successful partners a while back as co-owners of Australia, the Galileo colt that won the Derby for them in 2014. Now both sides are at the forefront of landing the American version of the Derby.

But let's not get too far ahead as a lot will happen in the trials to Kentucky. There are a couple of legitimate contenders yet to showcase their credentials during this month namely Bolt d'Oro and Justify. It is clear that Mendelssohn will not have it as easy at Churchill Downs as in Dubai. But for now and until then, that Wow performance on Saturday is still lively in the minds. Watching the road to Kentucky looks really interesting this year!

Arc de Triomphe 2016 - Postponed to the test

This year's Arc looks wide open with a few that have legitimate aspirations to win and the fact that Chantilly will be the temporary venue to the world's greatest race, only adds to the intrigue. I will pick 4 names from the 16-runner race, the quartet from which I believe the winner will emerge. Postponed, Found, Makahiki and Harzand.

Postponed is the deserved favourite going into the race; the son of Dubawi is unbeaten in 4 races this year and has proven himself the world's best middle-distance performer. This 5-year old is clearly flourishing with age and has been showing consistent top-class form over the past couple of years that makes him a difficult one to oppose in any race. There are not many chinks in his armor and it's pretty much a guarantee that he will be in the thereabouts at the finish. I cannot see him out of the first 4.

It is a staggering fact that Found has been runner-up in 9 Group 1 races. Much was expected of the daughter of Galileo this year after she had blown away Golden Horn in last year's Breeders' Cup. While she has only won one race out of her seven races this year, she has mostly been in the thereabouts to finish runner-up in most of them. Her not being good enough, or just being an unlucky second is a matter of interpretation, but what is beyond doubt is that she is of the top drawer and can land this race. It could very well be that she is an autumn filly; after all she was third in this race last year before brilliantly lowering Golden Horn's colours in the US. A big player in my books.

Is Makahiki the one to break Japan's curse in the Arc? Will he be the one redeeming his illustrious sire's defeat ten years ago to this day? Japan's best have always fallen short in dramatic circumstances at Longchamp and the roof will come down if Makahiki can end years of Nippon hurt. He seemed to win the Prix Niel in hand but I would have been more convinced if he had won more with more to spare; in other words, I wasn't as impressed as others were. I can't see him at the level of his sire or Orfevre but if he produces a career best and no-one else is showing on the day, maybe he is the blessed one from the land of the rising sun.

Harzand is the subject of ultra-confident whispers from the Dermot Weld camp and that is enough to decipher that the Derby winner will be at the peak of his powers on Sunday. He came out injured in his last race at ten furlongs but this will ideally suit him. A 3-year old, he will benefit from a non-negligible 3 pound allowance. He is a serious grinder and I see him punching his way through the field in the last 200 yards as the others run out of stamina. 

As mentioned, I believe the winner will come from the above. Unless some kind of Solemia strikes again. A top performance from Postponed will make him difficult to beat. On form, he should prevail and another plus is that he is drawn best of the four. Makahiki has the class to cause an upset should things fall rightly into place for him and it is by no means a stretch to think that the son of Deep Impact will finally deliver to the Japanese their Holy Grail.

Win: Postponed

Win (value): Makahiki

Arc de Triomphe 2013 - The Revenge of Orfevre?

Sunday's Arc de Triomphe is the highlight of the racing calendar for me and it looks set to be a fascinating renewal with some major contenders on the line. But the main question has to be with Orfevre, the Japanese mega-star and unlucky runner-up of last year's edition. To me, if the "Crazy Horse" is in top form and in the right frame of mind on the day, there will be no race; he has the potential to crush the field, he is that good.

Here are some of my thoughts on the main aspirants to the throne.

Orfevre. Much has been written about his heartbreak loss last year. Trainer Ikee somewhat gave closure to why he threw the race away this week. No, it was not a lack of stamina or a running out of gas as many speculated, since he accelerated and galloped away after the finish line. It was the flawed genius with his antics again. His prep Prix Foy win a few weeks ago looked convincing, allowing for the premise that he has retained his ability and might even be a better horse this year with an enhanced mental. This year, he has an ideal post and the soft ground will be of no detriment, unlike with some others. Unless he has an off-day and fails to fire, I cannot see him out of the first 3. He is head-and-shoulders the best horse in the race.

Treve. Unless she turns out to have Zarkava-like abilities, I cannot put her on a pedestal that many others are inclined to do. She is unbeaten in 4 and has looked dominant in the Prix Diane and Prix Vermeille but I have some reservations on the form book there. Soft ground won't be a problem to her but her very wide draw should be of concern to her backers. Orfevre easily overcame that issue last year but it won't be easy for a 3-year old filly running first time against males. I don't believe the switch of mount from Dettori to Jarnet will make a difference as she's won with the latter on 3 occasions. She is classy and can make the frame, but she's a definite lay in my books for the win.

Novellist. He rose to the top of the European middle-distance division by trouncing the King George in record-time. Then, he labored to win at Baden Baden prompting many questions about his real quality. Again here, my view is somewhat contrarian to most. While I cannot argue that he lowered the time scale by 2 seconds at Ascot, I've got to ask who he beat; Trading Leather, Universal, Hillstar are certainly not genuine Group 1 performers. Jockey Murtagh says he was impressed with the horse at Ascot and though I certainly respect his views on most matters, I've got to wonder whether his view is distorted by the fact that the facile win was against average opposition. At Baden Baden, his hard-fought win was dismissed as a prep for the Arc but it could very well be that he was either past his peak form or the race was a reflection of his true ability. Still, having won 9 out of 11 races and being a strong German-bred, he's got to be respected, but while he might be in the placings, he's another lay for the win for me.

Kizuna. He's a Japanese Derby winner by Deep Impact and won the Prix Niel by a nose. I have him several notches behind Orfevre at this point and his current odds are way too short. I am willing to lay him for both the win and placings.

Ruler of the World. The Derby winner looked an unlucky second to Kizuna in the Niel, having endured a torrid trip to the finish line. The main question is how good he really is? The form at Epsom is certainly  not transpiring very well and he could be just a good horse. The fact that stablemate Leaing Light has been supplemented indicates that connections must not be too confident either. He will have to benefit from exceptional circumstances to win this. I don't think he will make the frame.

Al Kazeem.  He will relish the soft ground but the extreme-wide draw killed most of his chances today. He is a solid top-class horse that has done well since the start of the season but he hasn't faced horses like this before. Certainly a big lay for the win at current odds

Intello. He's the big question mark of the race for me. There are doubts about his stamina based on his pedigree, being by a Danehill sprinter mare. He's definitely top drawer and if his class can carry him through, he will be a major player. The indications are strong that he was not initially prepared for the race and was destined for the major 8 to 10 furlong Group races where he's excelled. However, the flop of flag bearer Flintshire in the Niel probably prompted trainer Fabre to divert his course to the Arc. I cannot have him as a Win based on his preparation but it wouldn't surprised me if he finished in the frame.

Flintshire. He was the major disappointment of the Prix Niel where he was supposed to show his credentials as a major player in the Arc. It could be that the soft ground played to his disadvantage on the day but the ground will not get any better on Sunday. Trainer Fabre has opined that Intello is his best chance, so it's hard to side with this representative of Juddmonte stables.

Leading Light. St Leger winner but I doubt he is good enough to win this. Being by Montjeu and having been supplemented, he's got to be respected but I don't share the confidence of the connections. He's a big lay for me.

It's got to be Orfevre for me, with the hope that he shows his true best on Sunday. If he succeeds where every Japanese runner, including the mighty Deep Impact, has failed, you can expect the roof to come down with the staunch army of Japanese supporters at Longchamp. It could be an Arc for the ages and Orfevre carries the hope of a nation. The "Crazy Horse" can do it. For the placings, I will go with Novellist and Intello.


Win: Orfevre
Place: Novellist, Intello
Lay for Win: Kizuna, Al Kazeem, Treve, Novellist, Ruler of the World, Leading Light

Dubai World Cup 2013 selections

The first major event of the racing calendar takes place in Meydan on Saturday on Dubai World Cup day. While it might not be the congregation of the best horses in the world, the prize money on offer and the plurality of origins of the contestants, make this an unmissable and a truly world contest. This is why also, in my opinion, it is a truer world championship than what the Breeders Cup pretends to be. Anyway, here are some thoughts on some of the races on the night.

Godolphin Mile
It's hard to see past unbeaten Soft Falling Rain, who diverted from the UAE Derby because of obvious stamina limitations. This son of National Assembly will be the first 3 year-old to run in the contest and will aim to be the first one to win it as well. He is a course and distance winner already, although the opposition will be the fiercest he'd faced to date. I believe he should in be in first 2 and is worthy of the extra risk of having him as a Win. His main opponents look to be Zazoum Surfer and Moonwalk in Paris.

Dubai Gold Cup
I like Tenenbaum as a Place here. He was the best finisher in the Nad Al Sheba Trophy behind a few of these, the trial to this race. That race was his seasonal debut; he missed the break and was not suited by the slow pace. He came out a fast closing fourth. He should be in much better disposition on Saturday and I see him as a major player. Al Zarooni always seems to prop one on the big occasions and I believe Tenenbaum will be his main chance of a breakthrough. The opposition will come from Star Empire, Imperial Monarch and Ahzeemah.

UAE Derby
Unbeaten Secret Number seems to hold all the aces here and my only worry is that he's only raced two times in his career. For all I know, his half-brother to high-class Dubai Destination and Librettist could be an upcoming superstar after easily winning his 2 races. Yet, his lack of seasoning for such a competitive race is definitely a concern. On ratings, he's already higher than the rest of the field and given his expected improvement from his last run, he must have a good chance. I will have him as each-way. Shuruq, Elleval and Lines of Battle should provide the main opposition.

Al Quoz Sprint
If Shea Shea does a repeat of his last performance, he should win this one. He should certainly be in the first 3. The dark horse of the race comes from Singapore in Mr Big. This is my idea of the perfect horse to punt since he's never been out of the placings in 19 starts. It might be worth taking the extra risk and have a Place punt on him if you're willing to accept his form from Singapore.

Golden Shaheen
If Tenenbaum is Al Zarooni's best chance of the night, then fellow Australian Mental is a close second one. He won impressively on his last run on the Tapeta and looks to be a class act. The American horses Trinniberg and Private Zone are the dark horses of the race; we know they are speedy but the question is how they will handle the Tapeta. Trinniberg is the better horse of the two but only has form on dirt. Private Zone has run 3 times on the Hollywood Park and Del Mar synthetic tracks before although he only has a second-place to show for. I will stick with Mental as a rather safe Place here.

Dubai Duty Free
Without question, Igugu has to be considered the biggest flop ever to land in Meydan, so far. I would love her to put the record straight finally in the Duty Free but it will be a tough sell; this field is deep and good and if she's still far from the top of her game, she will have no chance, even with her large allegiance of supporters. Connections seem to favour The Apache, who's been rather impressive in his 2 previous outings, winning the first one, and coming out a good second last time out. This is a race I will happily lay 2 horses that are among the leading fancies in the market; Ocean Park and Trade Storm.They are way over-priced. I think Australia/NZ have the best turf sprinters in the world. Except for a few stars like So You Think, Elvestroem and Makybe Diva, I question heavily the form of their other milers or middle-distance runners of late. I might be wrong but I feel that Ocean Park will feel the heat against the best opposition he's ever faced. Same for Trade Storm. I admire the way he's trounced his rivals in his 2 impressive wins at Meydan but I feel Saturday is an entirely different proposition. He might be close to the finish but I don't believe he will win. Laying these 2 horses is my selection for this race.

Dubai Scheema Classic
Gentildonna could just be the best Deep Impact out there and her form in beating Orfevre in the Japan Cup must make her a leading contender here. She seems to have acclimatized very well to Meydan and it would not be of any surprise if she beats this good field. Await the Dawn and St Nicholas Abbey should provide the main opposition. I will go with the Japanese superstar for the win and Await the Dawn looks good value at current odds for a Place.

Dubai World Cup
This is a wide open race and the winner looks to be coming from either Godolphin, the American contingent or Treasure Beach from the Mike de Kock stable. Hunter's Light and Kassiano should be the major players from boys in blue. I believe Animal Kingdom is the main US hope. The Kentucky Derby winner had seemed out of the place the start of the week in his new surroundings, but indications are that he's since been working good. Treasure Beach has looked promising on the surface, closing fastest in his seasonal reappearance in the Al Maktoum Challenge 3, the trial to this race. Given his room for improvement, he could be a major player and do a Lizard's Desire for the de Kock team. At current odds, I will go with an each-way couple here with Treasure Beach and Kassiano. If any of the two end up in the first 3, it will a handsome payoff. I actually think Kassiano could win this thing.

I am not keen on Royal Delta or Dullahan although I am sure many pundits have them at the forefront of their selections. I think Royal Delta can dominate the distaff division all she wants, but going against seasoned colts is an entirely different matter. I don't think Dullahan is good enough or even has a liking the surface, based on his last run a few weeks back. So, I will be laying both.


Win: Soft Falling Rain, Secret Number, Gentildonna
Place: Tenenbaum, Shea Shea, Mental, Mr Big, Await the Dawn
Each-way: Kassiano/Treasure Beach
Lay: Ocean Park, Trade Storm, Royal Delta, Dullahan

Pantheon of the greats

What a week-end! Every single selection hit, except for hapless Arsenal who managed to go lose at Norwich. Obviously, the main talking point after Saturday was the place of Frankel among the all-time greats. Best horse there has ever been, has been a very popular clamour. There is no right or wrong answer on this one and I stand among those that will fall short of calling him the best ever. He could very well be the best of them all, but it impossible for me to give him that ultimate accolade with absolute confidence or certainty.

Don't get me wrong; Frankel is an unbelievable beast, the likes of which I've never seen before. He's the greatest miler of all time. Better, I consider him the best racehorse to have ever run up to 10 furlongs. If there was any match race from 8 to10 furlongs and I could select any horse, it would be him. He's the most dominant horse that has ever run at those distances. He's proved it by beating champions of the caliber of Canford Cliffs, Excelebration, and Cirrus des Aigles. He put anything that opposed him to submission.

But he hasn't run at 12 furlongs, the distance of reference for the best of the best, in my opinion. This is the distance of the Derbies, of the most-prestigious Arc, of the King George. This is the distance that tells the difference in class between the great and the immortal ones. The awesome Dubai Millenium lost his invincibility on his Derby attempt, a lack of stamina that was the cause of his only defeat. This is the distance that some mighty champions of Montjeu toyed with the their challengers. This is the distance that made the legends of Dancing Brave, Ribot, Deep Impact, Zarkava, Sea Bird, Nijinski, to name a few.

Frankel did not attempt that mythical distance, and the travesty of it all, is that he seemed to have the pedigree, being a son of Galileo. Had he won a high-caliber Group 1 at 12 furlongs, he would be my undisputed champion of all time. Would he have flopped like Dubai Millenium? Or would he have been as dominant as he proved at shorter distances? Have would he have reacted on the Longchamp straight with Ribot working on his inside and Deep Impact, Zarkava and Dancing Brave breathing down his neck with their dazzling finish, for the ultimate Arc? Most probably, he would have trounced all of them, but alas, he has no form to prove it. On similar lines, Black Caviar is possibly the greatest sprinter of all time, but she's just that, a sprinter; not the greatest racehorse there has been.

Not many champions end their career undefeated. The mystique behind Frankel is that he can not only boast he never got beaten, but he destroyed almost any horse that crossed his path. Such was his dominance. He's racing's version of Lionel Messi; he won everything there is to win while beating every record, except winning the World Cup. Can he be considered the greatest?

There has never been a certainty like Frankel in race punting, at least not in these times. He will be missed. He's the benchmark against which all future milers and 10-furlong performers will be gauged. I believe he will stay thus for a long long time. Frankel was a destroyer, possibly not the greatest racehorse, but certainly the most dominant thoroughbred there has been.

Black-type performers

Fantastic week-end of sports that was. Liverpool were lucky to draw with Sunderland while Stoke's +1 Handicap against Man City proved a nice winner. In racing, were in not for the exploits of outsider Encke, Camelot and Michelangelo would have provided with a very good return. As it is, Camelot did not win but a Placed Michelangelo was good enough to bring the bacon home.

It was an exquisite week-end of racing really. Godolphin again played the spoils to the ambitions of Coolmore by denying Camelot of the Triple Crown. The son of Montjeu stayed on but just lacked the finishing kick to reach his conqueror at the finish. It was another big-race win for jockey Barzalona who seems to have a knack of landing big-money races and Classics. It will be interesting if Camelot is given the green light for the Arc.

Speaking of the prestigious race, Orfevre, the Japanese superstar labored to win the Prix Foy, one of the major prep races. While many were left disappointed with his workmanlike win, he did beat a high-class colt in Meandre. It was also his first race after a long layoff. I think he's a genuine Arc contender; whether he wins it or not will depend on a load of factors. But he certainly looks the most talented Japanese representative after Deep Impact.

Shareta won the Prix Vermeille impressively by dispatching a high-class field and on that form, must be given a leading chance for the October show-piece. She came out second last year to Danedream and she seems to be hitting top form at the right moment again. She is definitely the best representative from the Aga Khan contingent.

Moonlight Cloud beat Farrh in the Prix Moulin. Freddy Head's filly is just an a tough sort that runs her heart out every time. She might be the only lateral link between Frankel and Black Caviar! She came a head off second to the Australian superstar at Royal Ascot, but beat Farrh in turn who's been trounced many lengths a couple of times by Frankel. I cannot wait for the next run from the French filly because she's among the best from 6 furlongs to a mile.

The Woodbine Mile on Canadian soil saw Wise Dan from the US stroll to a comfortable win over some good European sorts such as Cityscape. Obviously, it is widely agreed that Europeans are better than the US-trained ones on turf but this son of Wiseman Ferry could prove to be the exception come the Breeders Cup Mile in November. Wise Dan is by far the best miler from the US and unless Excelebration or Moonlight Cloud make the trip to Santa Anita, the race could be a shoe-in for the US champion.

This week is all about the 1st round of the Champions League and there are quite a few interesting match-ups on the go. I'll get to some previews tomorrow.

Ascot Saturday preview

Feels good to know that the 5 players I mentioned to make the cut did actually make it. Lee Westwood just scraped through at +3 (the cut). And Phil Mickelson will not play during the week-end after a horrific +11. As I was saying, the British Open and links golf is just not his thing. Tiger Woods is in great stalking position 4 shots off leader Snedeker. I am keen to see if we'll see the old Tiger of old over the week-end when he was nearly unbeatable when within striking distance.

Saturday is all about racing with the running of the King George and the Summer Mile at Ascot. Even though the distance might be on the sharp side, Carlton House will be very difficult to beat in the mile contest. He's clearly the best horse of the race and there are no world beaters among the rest. Questioning, the colt from the in-form Gosden stable looks to be the main threat. I definitely see Carlton House in the first 3, and unless he encounters traffic problems, he should win this.

The prestigious King George is the main 12-furlong contest of the summer and this year's edition looks terrific with the presence of some of the world's best horses at the distance. It is really an open race where there really isn't a standout leader. Here are my views of the starters.

Brown Panther - a longer distance would have suited better for last year's runner-up of the St Leger. He's a few pounds adrift of some of the other participants and will be lucky to be in the first 4.

Dunaden - also would have preferred a longer distance for this winner of the Melbourne Cup. Can aspire to a Place chance but will need a lot of luck in running to win.

Masked Marvel - winner of the St Leger but looks to be the stable second-string to Nathaniel. Dettori takes the ride but he looks to be more of a Group 2 horse. Still, all Montjeu's are dangerous at 12 furlongs and on a good day, could be among the placings.

Nathaniel - last year's winner and genuine Group 1 performer that was impressive when winning on his seasonal return in the Coral Eclipse a fortnight ago. However, I fear the bounce factor in him after such a short rest. Would have preferred at least one more week to recuperate. He might place but I don't think he'll win. At his current odds, he's a big lay for me, even though he comes from a yard that is banging winners at a tremendous rate.

Reliable Man - leading French raider who has good form across the channel and who came out 4th in the Prince of Wales stakes at Royal Ascot. The soft turf and venue won't be a problem for him but he will need a career best to win. I don't think he will be the one emerging victorious.

Robin Hood - no chance.

Sea Moon - a leading contender from the Sir Michael Stoute stable. Won both his races this year, the last one impressively in the Hardwicke Stakes. Connections don't look too confident but if he's at this best, he should be in the first 3.

St Nicholas Abbey - if he reproduces his form of the Breeders Cup or Coronation Cup, he should be at the finish. He is prone to deliver the odd clanker, which is why I don't have 100% confidence on the form he'll show. He's not to be dismissed at any means and the distance will suit him the best although he will be disadvantaged on a very soft track.

Danedream - the racing world is still waiting what Danedream is all about. She won last year's Arc in record time and looked unbeatable. She has since been beaten twice in 3 races. Who knows, maybe she's an October filly or maybe she's a one-race wonder. At her best, she could win this handily but I think the chances are that she won't reproduce her Arc form.

Deep Brillante - the Japanese Derby winner and dark horse of the race. I hugely respect her sire Deep Impact but I think she looks to be several pounds inferior to many of the contenders. Japanese do not have a great record  in their European raids over the past years and I cannot see Deep Brillante bucking the trend.

The soft conditions are sure to be a deciding factor but it might be worth to chance on a Place with Sea Moon at current odds. Not a certainty though.

Win: Carlton House
Place: Sea Moon

So You Think - The beast

Farrh and Ebony Flyer placed second, but Jackson was the big disappointment and only beat 3 home. At this point, I haven't read anything that went amiss with the Durban July favourite and connections are still scratching their heads on his poor showing. It certainly wasn't the ride because he was ideally placed throughout. Anyway, racing throws a few nuggets here and there at times.

Nathaniel won the Coral Eclipse and I must say that he surprised me with his fitness coming from a long layoff. It remains to be seen if the race has taken a lot from him but if he reproduces that kind of form, he will surely be a leading contender in the top middle-distance races to come.

It was sad to see So You Think retired after his injury that led to his defection from the Eclipse. I've always thought this horse to be a wonder horse and it is a tragedy that Aidan O'Brien took so long to get to the bottom of him. The horse looks like and is a freak. Not wanting to rollback to last year where he lost some of his lustre in some high-profile defeats, but there was an excuse for each and everyone of them.

Prince of Wales's Stakes 2011. Narrowly beaten by Rewilding because was under-done by O'Brien. Self-confessed trainer error.

Arc 2011. 4th to Danedream. Probably wouldn't have won because Danedream was un-catchable that day but was left too much to do at the back by Heffernan. He should have come out second. Pilot error.

Qipco Champions Stakes 2011. Narrow second to Cirrus des Aigles. The race came after only 13 days rest since his Arc outing, so he was tremendous into coming out second. Would have won if the races were further apart.

Breeders Cup Classic 2011. Beaten 3.5 lengths into 6th. He ran honourably considering dirt is not his surface and it was his 3rd Group 1 race in 5 weeks. He would have fared better if he had skipped the Qipco Champion Stakes above.

Finally, Dubai World Cup 2012. Honourable 4th on a synthetic surface that was not to his liking. However, this time, connections should be applauded for taking aim at racing's richest race.

Between all these heart-breaking defeats, So You Think still won 5 Group 1's on European soil. The horse's a legend. Without getting into the British-Aussie squabble as to how good he was, there is no doubt that if one had to select any horse from any era to run a 10-12 furlong race, So You Think would be at the forefront of many minds. Just like the Sea The Stars, Deep Impact, Dancing Brave, Nijinski, Ribot and Sea Bird. To me, he was that good.

Racing extravaganza

That was an eventful week-end of racing. Power won the Irish 2000 Guineas proving that he did not handle the sloppy conditions in the English version. The field was within a few lengths on the good ground which means that there isn't much of a gap between the milers of this generation. If they meet again, the standings might very well be different. But certainly the biggest satisfaction of this blog is to have pinpointed long-shot Reply, who came out 3rd at odds of 25/1. A fantastic each-way that was for those that had the same confidence on supposedly weakest string of the Ballydoyle contingent.

Trumpet Major flopped but like the rest, wasn't disgraced, which means that none of them should be discarded in their future races. The eye-catcher of the race was certainly Born To Sea, who looked lively in the closing stages and the son of Urban Sea looks set to be on the progressive path. Definitely something worthy of note for future reference.

The female equivalent went to Samitar, a first Classic for the Mick Channon stable, and a first Classic for her sire Rock of Gibraltar. The son of Danehill has shown renewed promised as a sire from the past year, and this vital win could be the turning point of his stud career.

On the same card, So You Think started his last European campaign by easily disposing of an average field to win the Tattersalls Gold Cup. He cantered easily on-the-bridle and seems to have none of his ability. The only other runner of note was Famous Name, who's a Group 2 horse really. I just hope O'Brien gets it right this year with the best son of High Chaparral so that he can truly gets to show his steel.

French racing was also the subject of some momentous races, highlighted by the winning return of Golden Lilac, the Galileo filly that took the 3-year old honours last year. She had been sidelined since her only defeat and she seems to have overcome the injury problems that made her miss the second half of last year. By beating Cirrus des Aigles and Planteur fair and square, she proved she could be the one to beat in the important middle-distance races in Europe this year. The Arc looks right up her alley at this point and Andre Fabre, her conditioner, is a master planner for that race.

Lastly, Deep Brillante won the Japanese Oaks by the touch of a short head. Yet another Classic winner for Deep Impact, whose daughters in particular are really rocking this year.

This week is all about the lead-up to the Derby; It seems impossible to oppose Camelot at this stage, the son of Montjeu looks to prolong the sublime winning record of his sire in England's most prestigious race.

Classic impact

The predictions were good with Man City, Arsenal and Tottenham all winning on the last day, but obviously, fat chance played a big role. City finally won the game and the title after giving their supporters the biggest fright imaginable. Their title win and that of Real Madrid in La Liga made for a nice double that was fancied here for the last few months. Sports is a funny game where this kind of selection could easily have gone astray had the Citizens failed to score in injury time. It worked this time.

The excitement of the last day of the Premiership showed why it is the most thrilling league to follow. It's not the best anymore, in that the best 2 clubs in the world are in Spain. However, I don't think anyone in the FA will want to swap places with a league where the gap between 2nd and 3rd place are 39 staggering points!

Some news of the note over last week-end and in the last few days. The non-selection of Rio Ferdinand for Euro 2012 is a good one. He's become more a liability at the back nowadays and his game has slowed markedly over the past couple of years. One of the reasons Man Utd lost the title this year was because the loss of Vidic exposed the vulnerabilities of Ferdinand.

The selection of Terry is a good one too, the only reason being that there is no other accomplished central defender in the squad. Reality is there is a serious lack of a top-class English central defender and that even a regressing Terry is better than what is available. That said, with or without Terry, England will concede goals because the defence is poor.

On the racing front, the French Guineas saw the coronation of Beauty Parlour and Lucayan. The former is a daughter of Deep Impact and looks set to dominate the 3-year old division this year. If she has no rival at a mile, I wonder who will challenge her at longer distances for which her pedigree suits perfectly. This is oh-so sweet revenge for her sire, who was not given the best preparation to showcase his talent on his only foray on French soil.

Another Japanese sire that had a prominent runner in the male Classic was Hat Trick, sire of Dabirsim, the champion 2-year old. He did not have the best of trips, but he also showed he did not quite get the mile distance. He could be factor over the sprint distances in Europe this year if that is the route his connections choose for him. But all this is a far cry from the greatness he looked set for after his overly promising debut season.

This coming week-end is all about the Preakness Stakes in the US and the return of Frankel in the Lockinge at Newbury. I don't usually favour ante-post but with the race only 2 days away, the odds in that market for the superstar miler will not be reached again. It's impossible to go against Frankel, and the recommendation is to take Frankel now and on race-day as well.

Antepost win: Frankel

Victory for Japan

That was a superb World Cup meeting. No hard-luck stories, the best on the day won. Japan won the Big One with Victoire Pisa, and there is so much we can talk about regarding this as we go down memory lane. El Condor Pasa gave a glimpse of their rise in the thoroughbred world by nearly winning the Arc. Heart's Cry confirmed their deep talent by winning the Schema Classic. Deep Impact almost put them on top of the world in an ill-fated Arc attempt. Delta Blues and Pop Rock gave them the big breakthrough in the Melbourne Cup. And now Victoire Pisa and Transcend won them the richest race of them all. Fantastic! and I hope there is more to come from the land of the Rising Sun.

Looking at my recommendations, all bar one of them (Gio Ponti/Musir) were correct, and the Place couplings were good as at least one of the horses made the frame (Rocket Man, River Jetez, Mahbooba) at favourable odds. This is how my 10 predictions came through;

1. Bad one to start with. Gio Ponti and Musir were close but ended up 5th and 7th. I thought for a moment that Gio Ponti would win it as he entered the straight menacingly on the outside, but his turn of foot couldn't make the difference as the leaders had enough in the tank with the slow pace. Both were not outclassed but were not good enough on the night.

2. Good lay prediction on Cape Blanco, but just. Cape Blanco ran a brilliant race to come out 4th. He surprised me and almost made me eat my words! I have renewed respect for him.

3. It was always going to be a long shot with Irish Flame as I mentioned.

4. The Duty Free did not go to one of the mares but River Jetez ran as expected but fell to another brilliant horse in Presvis. Raihana was the unlucky story of the race as she couldn't find a clear run in the straight. Had she done so, I think she would have finished 3rd.

5. No contest for Rocket Man there.

6. Mahbooba was in the first 3 as mentioned. Reem was out of it, but overall, great coupling for a Place.

7. The lay on Mendip was spot-on as it was always going to be difficult for him on grass. This horse should rather be tried on dirt in America or stay on the synthetic. I don't know why Godolphin didn't enter him in the DWC itself.

8. De Kock had a good night with a few Place earnings, but failed to win a race. So a "huge" night was overstating it.

9. Godolphin won the races that were mentioned they were most apt to win; the Mile, the UAE Derby and the Scheema Classic. All the stars came aligned on the night on the night for them to win all three. This Khawlah is a filly to follow in England. Same bloodlines as Sea the Stars, so this explains a lot about her abilities.

10. I hope you enjoyed the meeting, I thought it was the best of the past few years!

Before I end this topic, I'm reading the jockey comments concerning the DWC race and a few of them are plainly complaining about the lack of pace in the race doing their mount no favours. From Soumillon (Musir), to Shea (Golden Sword) to Dominguez (Gio Ponti), they are "wishing" the pace could have been quicker. I'm no jockey, but for any punter, it's unnerving to hear such things; if they thought the pace was unsuitable during the race, wouldn't it have made sense to do something about it rather than sit still? Or were they tactically bound to stay put? Being free on the outside, Shea and Dominguez had every chance to make a move but didn't. Demuro on Victoire Pisa made his move to control the race despite an early setback, and the result is a victory that is down to the jockey's tactical prowess as well as alertness.

Finally, I'm amusingly reading about Rooney's yellow card during the Wales v/s England, which rules him out of the next Euro qualifier game. I'm ok with Capello usually reminding offenders before the match whenever they are one yellow card away from suspension. Does him failing to do so, excuse the fact that Rooney did not know about this significant detail entering the game? These footballers are supposed to be "professional"... I think Rooney is an awesome player, but what kind of things going on in a footballer's mind that explains missing something as important as this?

Have a good week!

Mike de Kock in force

I was mentioning that a Place bet on Monster Crunchie at better than odds-on, would be worth it for punters looking for a bet. The Deep Impact filly came out third and was available at around 3/2 Place last time I checked, so hopefully there were some of you that latched onto it. I could not outright recommend her as a new-comer, but it gives me confidence that my analysis was correct. I tell you, these Deep Impacts are worth watching, just like the Sea the Stars progenies will be in a few years time.

To continue on the racing streak, tomorrow is Meydan day. At the risk of being repetitive, it seems to be another fruitful meeting for the de Kock stable. It will just be a matter of picking the right horses for the stable. "Musir is flying and should go close" according to the trainer. These kinds of bullish comments often mean the expectation is very high. I was not surprised when Mike said that Bold Silvano was his best ever World Cup hope after the devastating win by the son of Silvano last week. But I was a little surprise he did not say that both Bold Silvano and Musir were his best hopes. Anyway, Musir is a classy horse who's only disadvantage on Thursday will be to get rid of cobwebs after a 325-day absence. I recommend him as a Place bet.

Out of other de Kock runners, I like classy filly Raihana to also Place. It will be interesting how she measures with Godolphin's Kingsfort, who I rate very highly. I also like Zanzamar; my only concern is that Richard Hills has a tendency to mess up on short favourites, in my opinion and experience. Golden Sword had a great last race which seems to show that he was back to his best, so is recommended as a Place in a race that seems winnable.

Place: Musir, Raihana, Golden Sword

Great horses of a lifetime...

Both of Thursday predictions won. Milan easily won against Bari and advanced to the next stage of the Coppa Italia and at Meydan, River Jetez was placed 3rd in her race.

The South African filly was very unlucky not to actually win her race as she was short of room at the rails. It reminded me very much a race at Meydan last year with Japanese champion Vodka also being stuck on the inside rails in a race she should have won. Anyway, River Jetez is certainly one to follow as the Carnival progresses. Also to follow is Godolphin's Simon de Montfort who won his race quite handily under Kieren Fallon; as I was writing in my previous post, this is a very classy colt and he does not seem to have lost any of his turn of foot. Godolphin and Mike de Kock are dominating proceedings as I mentioned they would, which is hopefully a good omen for my recommendations as long as I can pick their right horses.

I can't see anything of punting value for Friday. Japan is playing hosts Qatar in the Asian Cup in what should be an interesting match. The Australian Open is in full swing, and in my opinion, Nadal will at least reach the final. No punting or recommendations on this though as I haven't spent time assessing the main candidates to the trophy. I would think it will be between Nadal, Fed and Murray, but that's quite stating the obvious. No, I'm just bracing myself for this week-end's football and racing; in the meantime I'll finally go watch Secretariat the movie. I don't know much about the great horse besides it winning the Triple Crown and winning the Belmont by oh-so-many lengths, that seemed to have made its legend. Ahh, champion thoroughbreds... If I can leave the reality of punting a little bit, and fancy a 12-furlong race on a non-biased synthetic surface (say Meydan)...The Americans would bring Secretariat and Zenyatta, the British would come with Sea The Stars and Dancing Brave, the French with Zarkava and Peintre Celebre, the Japanese with Deep Impact, the South Americans with Invasor, the South Africans with Horse Chestnut and Pocket Power, the Australasians with So You Think and Makybe Diva, and the mighty Ribot would come for the Italians ... A wonder race for the ages... My trifecta would be... Sea The Stars, Deep Impact and Zarkava! and I am sure my selection will not be unanimous among other racing fans.

Ok, I'm off go to watch the movie about the great Secretariat...