Week-end European football

All of the Wednesday selections won, which hopefully, bodes well for the upcoming week-end matches. Here are some of my thoughts.

Liverpool v/s Southampton. Much of Liverpool's chances reside on the form of Luis Suarez. If he scores, they have a great chance to win. If he doesn't, it's hard to see where the goals will come from. Southampton have racked up points at home lately, where they are particularly strong. Like all bottom-tier teams, they find it much harder on the road. They can get a point from Anfield, but I don't see them winning. Liverpool is a draw-no-bet recommendation.

QPR v/s Aston Villa. Rangers will be hoping to get a first win of the dismal campaign against the Villains. There is no doubt that they are a better team with Harry Redknapp in command. I think they will pose Villa with problems and it will not be surprising if they scrape through with 3 full points. The visitors are a decent team, but they will come up against an inspired Rangers. Looking at the odds, I see the hosts as a good value draw-no-be.

Juventus v/s Torino. There are only a couple of teams that aspire full confidence when handicapping Serie A games and Juventus is one of them. They lost to AC Milan, albeit controversially, last week, and they will be keen to keep their healthy lead at the top by winning the Turin derby match. A straight win for the Old Lady.

Barcelona v/s Atletic Bilbao. Barca is on fire and Messi is a man on a mission to break Gerd Muller's season-goal record. Bilbao is a broken team where manager Biesla seems to have lost the plot after club in-fighting with players like Llorente. Straight win for the Blaugrana.

Nice v/s PSG. After a recent dry spell, things look to be returning to normal for the visitors. Although they were dumped out of the French Cup on penalties in mid-week, their priority remains the championship and they should have too much firepower for Nice. Carlos Ancelotti's men are a safe draw-no-bet.


Win: Juventus, Barcelona
Draw-no-bet: Liverpool, QPR, PSG

Oh Frankel

No surprise seeing Real Madrid winning the derby against Atletico Madrid. Not many footballers would have attempted that Ronaldo shot that led to his second goal. Absolutely brilliant. There is only one real hurdle left for Real Madrid and that is their away game to Atletic Bilbao. With their 4-point cushion, if they win this game, they can afford to lose to Barcelona, as there is little doubt that they will get maximum points in their other remaining encounters.

Actually Real Madrid could make some breathing room for themselves this week-end as they host Sporting Gijon. A certain win for the Los Blancos. Barcelona travel to Levante for a tricky match; the hosts are a force to reckon with at home and it would be a mistake to think that Barcelona are sure winners of this game.

In the EPL, Man Utd could also be opening a gap as they host Aston Villa. I cannot see Villa winning this one at Old Trafford, and they might get lucky to steal a point. But I believe it is worth going for a straight Win for the Red Devils. Man City are in for a tough trip to Norwich, who are a tough cookie at home. This game can really go either way.

I like Sunderland's chances at home to Wolves. If only the bottom-of-table club could have some discipline in their ranks; they just keep shooting themselves in the foot by collecting red cards early in the game. That's one of their many problems. Sunderland as draw-no-bet should be safe.

Finally, some horse racing notes where the Grand National takes place on Saturday. A great spectacle I'll watch but I have no clue on the form of the National Hunt horses. Hopefully, Mc Coy won't win it again as I think he's won everything there is to win now and it's about time that someone else shares the honors.

On the Flat front, Frankel's injury yesterday has given a mighty scare to the racing world. The agony of waiting  will last 1 week by the time he's due his second scan to reveal the extent of the injury. Hopefully, it is only a superficial injury, as connections are hopeful it is. Frankel is having the horse nation on tenterhooks just like Rooney and Beckham had the English nation on the leadup to the last World Cup and European Championships. This is the year Frankel is supposed to show he's the greatest of them all, and I really hope it turns out that way.


Win: Real Madrid, Man Utd
Draw-no-bet: Sunderland

Fully-charged week-end

Milan scraped through Arsenal, who have reasons to be nurturing regrets from the awful first leg drubbing at the San Siro. There are 2 things that transpire from that tie; it was again a Close-But-No-Cigar story for the Gunners, a recurring theme for them for the past 6 trophy-less years or so. Second, Milan is not even close to competing the likes of Barcelona or Real Madrid, which leads me to the fact that the winner will be a Spanish team again this year.

Back to league football where there could be a change of leaders in the EPL this week-end. Man Utd host West Brom and they will be keen to get back to their winning ways after last night's defeat to Athletic Bilbao in the Europa League. I think they will do so and will bag the 3 points, so a Man Utd win is the selection. Man City also lost in the same competition to Sporting Lisbon and they face another not-so-simple trip to Swansea. The hosts are the surprise package of the season and a tough nut to crack at the Liberty Stadium. This game can go either way and I don't have an overwhelming opinion on its outcome, so I'll stay away from a recommendation.

In Italy, I see leaders Milan winning against Lecce, so they are recommended as a Win.

In the Bundesliga, Bayern Munich is enjoying a poor form at the moment but they will be gunning for 3 important points against Hoffenheim. The Bavarians will be boosted by the return of midfielder Schweinsteiger but face a rejuvenated Hoffenheim team that is unbeaten in 4 starts under new coach Markus Babbel. I expect Bayern to either edge or draw this, so they are recommended as a draw-no-bet, to be safe.

Racing action in Meydan sees an ultra-competitive card called Super Saturday, which looks to be a precursor of things to come on World Cup night in a few weeks time. There is one horse that stand out of the cards and that is Musir, who runs in the Group 3 Burj Nahaar on the Tapeta surface. Synthetic or turf, it does not seem to matter to the Redoute's Choice colt as he's proven to be equally as good on both. He's one of the best milers in the world and he always gives an honest account of himself. Mike de Kock is expecting a big race from him, and no other horse has form that is comparable to his at the mile distance. He is a strong each-way recommendation.

Win: Man Utd, Milan

Draw-no-bet: Bayern Munich

Each-way: Musir

The Great Collapse

Canada leading 3-0 and a period of hockey to go, and you think punting does not get any easier than that. Take a nap and 20 minutes later, and realize that Russia has scored 5 unanswered goals to win the game and the gold medal... Amazing meltdown, the greatest collapse in the history of world junior hockey as the commentator was saying. If my hockey punting ego has taken a huge beating, I wonder how stunned real Canadian hockey fans must be! Congratulations Russia, well-deserved world champs, and that could be the turning point into the revival of Russian hockey.

Earlier, Barcelona drew with Bilbao for a voided bet. Again then, I had stopped watching after they scored, thinking they had the game in control, only to find out later that Bilbao tied the game five minutes from the end! Oh well, I suppose I can look at the outcome positively, and the draw-no-bet saved me there! On Thursday, Madrid are at Levante and although the coach is saying they will treat this seriously despite having won the first leg 7-0, the motivation will probably be with Levante to ease some of the humiliation. No recommendation there as this can go any way.

In the Premier League, Man Utd is just laughing its way towards the title. It got the perfect results possible on Wednesday with Chelsea and Tottenham losing and Arsenal and Man City fighting to a dull goal-less draw. I wonder if Paddy Power will soon consider the title race over and start paying out?

Barcelona to go through, and Gold for Canada!

Man Utd won their game after 2 brilliant plays from Nani. The guy has quite simply become the danger man for the Red Devils this year; to stop them, you've got to stop him first. With the paucity of available wingers as I was mentioning in the previous post, Man Utd's chances of success depend much on a fit Nani.

On Wednesday, it's the return leg of the Copa del Rey and Barcelona are at Athletic Bilbao. If the King's Cup is high enough on Guardiola's priorities (after the Champions League and La Liga), then Barcelona should field a team strong enough to win this encounter and go through. Indications from the Barcelona web site are that he is taking the game seriously although their number one keeper Valdes won't start. Barcelona has too much class, and a draw-no-bet on them is the recommendation.

Time to put on my ice hockey hat for the World Junior Ice Hockey Final between Canada and Russia. Quite simply, I cannot see the Canadian juniors lose this one. For many, Russia is extremely lucky to be in this final after overcoming the Finns and Swedes when they had their backs to the walls. You cannot deny there is some resilience in that team as well, but I doubt that will be enough against the might of the Canadian team, who also beat them 6-3 in the opening rounds. I have to mention this hockey match in this blog because all the ticks seem to be right for this Canadian team, and the only team which could have stopped them winning gold are the unluckily-eliminated Swedes (the only team to have beaten them). Canada to win gold on Wednesday night in Buffalo in front of a partisan crowd is the recommendation.


Win: Canada
Draw-no-bet: Barcelona