The Grand Final

Saturday sees Wembley takes centre-stage for the "biggest show on Earth" as football titans Barcelona and Man Utd clash in the Champions League (CL) final. So much has been written on this final, from Barcelona's fantastic football to Man Utd's rigid defence. All angles are being covered in the media with the aim to predict the outcome of the match. Even the Wall Street Journal is having its say on what makes Barca the super team they are.

There won't be a recommendation from me because this game could turn into anything. At current odds, Barcelona is too short. On the other hand, who would be brave enough to say that a Man Utd win is a certainty? However spectacular these 2 teams are, there isn't even a certainty that the football that will be played will be of great quality. A final with such high stakes can transform the greatest offensive team into a defensive giant.

What is certain is that Barcelona is the best team in the world going into this game. They play the best football, they have the best players, and they have someone called Lionel Messi. But in a final played in 90 minutes, extra time and penalities, they are beatable, just like Real Madrid beat them in the Copa del Rey. They are not invincible. 

I've repeated many times that Man Utd have over-achieved this year, and they will have to over-achieve even more to have a chance to win the final. They have something intangible that Barcelona maybe don't have (or more appropriately, haven't needed to have); a fighting never-say-die spirit, inherited from their manager, that always gives them a chance even when they seem to be after a losing cause. Think the CL 99 League final against Bayern Munich at the Nou Camp!

Two years ago, Barca beat Man Utd 2-0 in the final at Rome. Most observers agree that on the match overall, this was the right result. The better part of the observers have also noted that Man Utd dominated the match in the first 10 minutes and had 2 great chances to score, before Samuel Eto'o turned the match on its head with a brilliant goal. I am not saying that Man Utd would have won if they had scored first in the first 10 minutes, but it is certain that the match would have been different than the 1-sided proposition we saw after that first goal.

So can Man Utd do something this time? I believe they can. Historically, their manager Ferguson has relished being the final underdog. His Aberdeen side beat mighty Real Madrid in the 1983 European Cup Winners Cup final. His Man Utd team won its first European trophy under his helm by beating heavily-favored Barcelona in the 1991 version. It will be a matter of how he comes up with the tactics again to stifle a potent opponent. Which brings me to a momentous but yet not-too-much-talked point of this final; where is Barcelona's weak point, if there's any? For me it's the central defense, notably the Pique-Puyol axis.

Let there be no misinterpretation, Pique and Puyol form a solid defence, almost but not quite as stingy as the Ferdinand-Vidic pairing. Barca's football means that everything starts from Pique to its ever-mobile midfielders. The classy defender has been likened to Beckenbauer for his very stylish and mobile style. The fact that Barcelona have 70% of ball possession in their matches means that their defence is rarely ever subject to constant testing. Real Madrid has shown in a few of the El Clasico encounters that they can be stretched and exposed and the Ronaldo goal that settled the Copa del Rey was a case where the defenders were all at sea. I believe Alex Ferguson will have witnessed that and this is an area where Chicharito's speed and intelligence can cause serious damage.

In another twist of fate, it was Ferguson who let go of Pique to his native Barcelona because of the surge of Johnny Evans in the reserve ranks. A seemingly innocuous deal that in hindsight, has transformed the Catalans into a powerhouse and changed the football world. On Saturday, the Man Utd coach will be aiming his strikers to do his rare "bad" decision some justice and beat his former pupil.

My hope for this final is that the Pedro's, Busquet's and Alves' keep their playacting on the side so that the referee-ing does not have any impact on the result. I've recommended both teams many times in this CL campaign and they have done all my recommendations justice. I believe this game will be decided out of a brilliant play somewhere. If it's decided on penalties, so be it, that's part of football.

This is a final and I'm going to have a punt regardless of whether it's safe or not. I will go lightweight for Man Utd +0.5 +1.0 on the Asian Handicap. Not a recommendation; just that I think the stars are aligned for them to win it in the end. Van der Sar's last game will have him pumped up. Ji-Sung Park, the da Silvas, Valencia, Chicharito, Berbatov, etc for a first CL medal. I wouldn't mind that outcome. Come on Man Utd!

A huge test for Man Utd

Not a bad week-end with 3 out of 5 recommendations winning, and the remaining 2 voided. Real Madrid, Man City and Lille won, while Milan and Bremen drew their matches. As long as we keep away from the losing punts, things are good. Not much exciting things to report over the week-end. In La Liga, Madrid cut Barcelona's lead by 2 points to give a glimmer of hope to its supporters. In England, the Manchester teams won their quarter-final matches to ensure that they will meet in the semi-final. Really interesting match-up indeed. In Italy, leaders Milan confirmed that they were far from being dominant leaders by failing to beat lowly Bari. The Italian league is really sub-par compared to the English and Spanish ones.

It's the Champion League matches determining the final set of quarter-finals that take all of the football attention this week. A huge huge night tomorrow Tuesday awaits Man Utd as they host Marseille. After a drab goalless draw in the first leg, the Red Devils will have to beat the French champions to ensure qualification. With their current injury problems, it won't be easy for Utd and I can't believe that they are almost 1/3 on the exchanges to qualify. No Park, Ferdinand, Fletcher, Anderson. Latest reports suggest that Nani will make it. If he didn't, I just couldn't find a way for Utd to go through. This Marseille team is solid on the road and they emphasized this masterfully by going to win at previously unbeaten Rennes (at home) last week. If they happen to score first, they are good enough to park the bus in front of goal. Man Utd's chances rest massively on Nani, who provides their main threat for scoring goals. If he fails to fire, then Ferguson will have to hope that Valencia can contribute at such a high level on only his second game after such a long layoff. Really, I think the 3/1 current odds for Marseille to qualify represent good value. I can't outright recommend it though because this match can go either way, and there are no sure-fire predictions on this one. The old fox Ferguson will certainly have his players motivated, and maybe a trick or two up his sleeve, but it will have to be an exceptional Man Utd team that produces their best performance of the past weeks, to win this game. As it stands, I think they really have their backs to the wall on this one.

Week-end Football Preview

First, my thoughts to the Japanese people following the devastating quake and tsunami. I don't think I've ever seen such kind of devastation. There are Japanese readers to this blog, and I keep my fingers crossed for you.

On Thursday, got a great result in the shape of Braga's win over Liverpool. At odds-against, the prediction on Braga's draw-no-bet win was one of the best and most satisfying on this blog. At Meydan, as mentioned, Godolphin was dominating. Mike de Kock's Here To Win disappointed though with an unplaced finish, and coincidence or not, whenever the big trainer is not on the premises (was in Johannesburg), the results are not as positive. Alluding to this because at one time a couple of years back, Mike himself was mentioning that there was a perception that whenever he was enjoying success in Dubai, his horses based in South Africa were not doing as well.

A busy week-end of football coming up on the European front. In England, FA Cup rules with a juicy Man Utd hosting Arsenal. This is my take on Man Utd at the present. Last year they lost out on the domestic League and Champions League in a 7-day span where they hit poor form and injuries for 3 consecutive crucial games, which ended up wrecking their pursuit of major trophies. A similar script seems to be developing for them at this time. They first hit major injuries by losing Anderson, Ferdinand, Park, and now Nani. Then Vidic their defensive rock got suspended. These, coupled with indifferent form, have resulted in defeats at Wolves, Chelsea and Liverpool. So now, come Arsenal, and more importantly Marseille, and they will still be without their best 2 midfielders in Nani and Park. It does not look rosy for them in the short term, and you feel that they do need that little extra luck in games to get out of the predicament that they are presently in. Man Utd v/s Arsenal really can go either way, and I feel the Red Devils will be keeping their best team for the Marseille game next week.

I was mentioning before FA Cup matches are unpredictable and are to be mostly avoided, but when Man City is hosting Reading at this stage, I've got to recommended City at least as a draw-no-bet. The Citizens just come from a debacle travel in the Europa League, and Reading are giant killers, but I simply cannot see them overcome the massively talented squad at Eastlands. Even if Mancini plays his second team, they won't be beaten at home against the Championship side.

In Italy. I've got to go with Milan against Bari. Milan got bumped by Tottenham in mid-week Champions League and will be keen to make amends. The Serie A is their hope for silverware, and it won't come any easier than Bari. Because of their mid-week exertions, a draw-no-bet on Milan is recommended.

In Spain, Mourinho has started the mind games with Barcelona as he becomes desperate to overcome the gap with the Catalans. Madrid host Hercules, and it's a straight Win recommendation for Mourinho's men. Sevilla hosts Barcelona in what should be a pretty tight affair. I would not be surprised to see Barcelona lose points here. In fact, Sevilla are dangerous enough to create problems and win this game against a Barcelona team that might be exposed having played in mid-week. I'll abstain from a recommendation on this one.

In Germany, I see value in backing Werder Bremen as it hosts last-place Monchengladbach. Bremen are better than the lowly position they are in, and I recommend them as a draw-no-bet.

In France, Lille plays hosts to Valenciennes and I expect Lille to win this, as they are really good at home. A draw-no-bet on them should be safe.


Win: Real Madrid
Draw-no-bet: Man City, Milan, Werder Bremen, Lille

Chance for Arsenal to close the gap

Real Madrid came out of Lyon with an invaluable away goal which could prove decisive for the second leg. It looks Chelsea are certain to go through after winning at Copenhagen. On Wednesday, Man Utd travel to Marseille for a tricky encounter. The Red Devils are being hit with a sort of mini injury-crisis with the likes of Ferdinand and Giggs missing the trip, and Ji-Sung Park and Anderson potentially out for 3-4 weeks and more. They still have enough firepower to score away goals, and they will be relieved to hear that the French team will be missing a couple of key players as well. No recommendations on that one as you just cannot know what kind of team will show up with the injury toll.

For punting, I like Arsenal's chances against Stoke. The Gunners are in good form, and will be keen not to miss bagging 3 points at home and reduce the gap with Man Utd at the top. Van Persie will be favourite to be on-target again, but there are other Gunners that are doing well enough presently to be on the score sheet notably Arshavin. A draw-no-bet on Arsenal is recommended.

Draw-no-bet: Arsenal

Man Utd beware: Stoke are no push-overs

Real Madrid won as they edged a tight game against Getafe. The fact that I had that as draw-no-bet meant it was never a concern even should Getafe had managed to pull level at any point in the match. I really like that kind of unfolding.

Back to the Premier League on Tuesday, and I might be in the minority saying this, but I think that it won't be 3 easy points for Man Utd against Stoke. My concern with this Utd team is their lack of cover of wingers, after the unavailabilities of Park and Nani. Valencia is out for long, Giggs can't take on half-backs at his age, and Obertan doesn't inspire confidence after a horrible game against West Brom. This should be a worry for a team whose mainstay has been relying on the pace of wide men to open up defences. On the road, they can afford to play with 3 centre midfielders, but they aren't as efficient using that scheme at Old Trafford because the other team is just packing their midfield in front of their defence. On the other hand, Stoke are no push-overs by any means, and have some good late form behind them. Kenwyne Jones is bound to be a handful for Utd's defence as he's been in the past. Unless the hosts score early, I can see this game going goal-less for a long while until either team scores the decisive winner. As I write this, Rooney, Evra and Nani are doubtful, so that's another negative for Fergie's men. Utd could still edge this at the end of 90 minutes because they still have lots of quality, but I reckon one or two plays could decide this match. No recommendation from me on this one, but I just wanted to caution those that are freely laying Stoke in this encounter, that they could be in for a nail-biting afternoon, in my opinion.

Manchester Derby and Copa del Rey Previews

A rare full Premier League fixture today and tomorrow. I think Man City will not lose to Man Utd for many reasons tomorrow. Man Utd are "counting heads" presently, having been struck with a flurry of injuries and flu virus. They struggled to beat Wolves at home on a late late Park strike. They have struggled to beat City since last year (although they did win, they left it late late). City are playing at home where they have a very good record. Although City have been in poor form of late prior to last Saturday's win at West Brom, I think they will either win or squeeze a draw out of this match. I will recommend them as Draw-no-bet. Betting against Man Utd is never a sure thing, but their current situation makes it a very hard road game for them.

In the Spanish Cup tomorrow, Real Madrid should win their home game against lowly Murcia and qualify. They are recommended as an outright win.

Win: Real Madrid.

Draw-no-bet: Man City.