All eyes in the racing world will converge to Belmont Park on Saturday to witness Justify's attempt at landing the Triple Crown. The unbeaten son of Scat Daddy will try to emulate American Pharoah and affirm his name among the other legends of American racing. Can he do it?
The connections are certainly bullish. Thriving is the common word coming from Baffert, the trainer, to describe the status of Justify. Baffert, the same trainer of American Pharaoh at that. But there should be a few causes for concern.
The main one is how the son of Scat Daddy will handle the mile and a half. This distance has been the graveyard for many Triple Crown aspirants. The field has a few gallopers for which the distance will suit better. Think Hofburg, Blended Citizen, Free Drop Billy. The most likely scenario is that those closers will try to wear Justify down in the last quarter mile of the race. How he will respond will determine the race.
The other question is how much the Preakness took out of Justify. That was his hardest race to date as Good Magic gave him a good run for his money for all but the last 100 yards of the race. Once Good Magic was taken care of, Justify had to withhold the assaults of Bravazo and Tenfold and certainly the finishing post came much as a relief. It would not be stretching to think that 3 weeks rest might not be enough to overcome the exertions at Pimlico.
But Justify might just be a superior horse that can overcome all these concerns. The field is deep but not overly talented. Somehow, if there is an all-out closer that will relish the gruelling distance, then the favourite might be vulnerable towards the end. The comparison line I can come closest to is Smarty Jones, who ultimately failed to land the Triple Crown after going to Belmont undefeated. He had an easy Kentucky Derby and won the Preakness in a canter. He looked to win the Belmont from far way out but was gunned down in the closing stages by a true middle-distance runner named Birdstone, losing his only race in the process. Justify had a relatively easy Derby, albeit in the slop. He had a hard Preakness, in the slop as well. He will be facing a deeper field including a few with staying pedigrees. So his work is cut out for him to win the Belmont.
If he is a superior or super horse, as Baffert seems to believe, then he should have enough in hand. At current odds, it might be worth taking him as it will only take a horse of the greatest caliber to overcome all the questions above.
The connections are certainly bullish. Thriving is the common word coming from Baffert, the trainer, to describe the status of Justify. Baffert, the same trainer of American Pharaoh at that. But there should be a few causes for concern.
The main one is how the son of Scat Daddy will handle the mile and a half. This distance has been the graveyard for many Triple Crown aspirants. The field has a few gallopers for which the distance will suit better. Think Hofburg, Blended Citizen, Free Drop Billy. The most likely scenario is that those closers will try to wear Justify down in the last quarter mile of the race. How he will respond will determine the race.
The other question is how much the Preakness took out of Justify. That was his hardest race to date as Good Magic gave him a good run for his money for all but the last 100 yards of the race. Once Good Magic was taken care of, Justify had to withhold the assaults of Bravazo and Tenfold and certainly the finishing post came much as a relief. It would not be stretching to think that 3 weeks rest might not be enough to overcome the exertions at Pimlico.
But Justify might just be a superior horse that can overcome all these concerns. The field is deep but not overly talented. Somehow, if there is an all-out closer that will relish the gruelling distance, then the favourite might be vulnerable towards the end. The comparison line I can come closest to is Smarty Jones, who ultimately failed to land the Triple Crown after going to Belmont undefeated. He had an easy Kentucky Derby and won the Preakness in a canter. He looked to win the Belmont from far way out but was gunned down in the closing stages by a true middle-distance runner named Birdstone, losing his only race in the process. Justify had a relatively easy Derby, albeit in the slop. He had a hard Preakness, in the slop as well. He will be facing a deeper field including a few with staying pedigrees. So his work is cut out for him to win the Belmont.
If he is a superior or super horse, as Baffert seems to believe, then he should have enough in hand. At current odds, it might be worth taking him as it will only take a horse of the greatest caliber to overcome all the questions above.
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