Friday, June 6, 2025

Epsom Derby 2025 - 3 Ballydoyles against 1 Godolphin (just like the Oaks)

The Epsom Derby looks very competitive this year and there does not seem any colt towering over the field on paper unlike the past couple of renewals where Auguste Rodin and City of Troy looked a class above the rest of the field. Here is a rundown of the runners:

Al Wasl Storm: does not have the class to compete in this.

Damysus: was a good second in the Dante Stakes and can have place claims.

Delacroix: the deserving favourite boasting a stellar pedigree being a Dubawi out of a champion US miler in Tepin. The distance is a bit of a stretch for him and his class will have to carry him through. Should be a major player.

Green Storm: hard to see why he's in this.

Lambourn: Chester Vase winner who will have no problem with the mile and a half distance. I am not sure he has the speed required to win this and might be more of a Leger horse. Will run a honest race.

Lazy Griff: second in the Chester Vase and the above-mentioned Lambourn strikes as a better option.

Midak: this unbeaten French invader has been supplemented and looks to be the dark horse of the race. It would be terrific to see a son of Footstepsinthesand winning this but the opposition will be nothing like he's see before. 

New Ground: another supplemented French raider who has an inferior rating to Midak but who's not to be dismissed on a good day. He seems to have run freely on both of his beaten outings this year and will need to relax to play a major role at Epsom.  

Nightime Dancer: Is proven at the distance but lacks the quality required at this level. 

Nightwalker: does not look to have the class to win a race like this. Might look for a place at best.

Pride of Arras: looks top-class and impressive winner of the Dante. This will be only his third run and I fear his inexperience might be exposed on a course like Epsom. At current prices, he is a big lay for me. 

Rogue Impact: looks more likely to end at the tail end of the field.

Ruling Court: impressive winner of the 2000 Guineas but isn't sure to run because of the soft conditions. The distance should not be a problem for this son of Justify out of a High Chapparal mare. He is in for a major chance if he runs and the ground is on the good side. 

Sea Scout: is a respectable colt but will be found wanting at this level.

Stanhope Gardens: has only run up to a mile and will be hard pressed to last the distance. I don't see him playing a leading role here.

Tennessee Stud: if the main contenders do not fire, he could be the one picking up the pieces. This son of Wootton Bassett has a big race in him and might be worth a nibble as an each-way if he takes to the conditions.

The Lion in Winter: while many were disappointed by his 6th place in the Dante, I thought he finished encouragingly well given it was his seasonal return. The distance should not be a problem and with the expectation of improvement from his last run, I wouldn't dismiss him. At current odds, he is worth a serious look. 

Tornado Alert: he pleasantly surprised with a good 4th in the 2000 Guineas but it is with more hope than confidence that Suroor has him in this race. More likely to be eased in the straight.

Tuscan Hills: looks more of a top-level miler than a stayer. There are better options.

Out of the pack, I will single out the following four: Delacroix, Ruling Court, The Lion in Winter and Tennessee Stud. Playing Dutch with the first 3 as Win selections and hoping that Tennessee Stud can bring a big pay-out as an each-way selection.


Win: Delacroix/Ruling Court/The Lion in Winter
Each-way: Tennessee Stud





Thursday, June 5, 2025

Betfred Oaks Preview 2025 - Desert Flower against Ballydoyle brigade

Forget about the rest of the field, Friday's Betfred Oaks is going to be a confrontation between Godolphin's Desert Flower and the Ballydoyle triumvirate of Whirl, Giselle and Minnie Hawk. The winner will come out of these 4.

According to trainer Charlie Appleby, Desert Flower is the best filly he's ever trained and he has had some very good fillies over the years. She was imperious winning the 2000 Guineas and is a top drawer among the classic generation. The big question is whether she will get the mile and a half distance. Being by Night of Thunder and a Hard Spun mare, there is no doubt that she can easily excel at a mile and a quarter. Unless her class pulls her through, she might find the raising finish at Epsom one obstacle too many. Although she is the deserving favourite, her warm odds really look too short and it might be worth taking her on.

Not sure whether it's a case of quantity over quality for Ballydoyle but they are packing up with 3 quality fillies. It either means they genuinely think that they all have a chance or they have no idea how good they might be and are taking a hopeful punt. Giselle is regally-bred being by Frankel and US champion Newspaperofrecord. She is clearly earmarked for the top races and should have enough class and stamina to last the gruelling distance. Minnie Hawk doesn't bode as stellar a pedigree on the dam side but this daughter of Frankel is the chosen mount of Ryan Moore and hasn't put a foot wrong in her appearances. She will relish the mile and a half. Finally, Whirl is the most experienced of the whole lot and was an impressive winner of the Musidora. Being by Wootton Bassett out of a Galileo mare gives her the speed and stamina required but the question is whether she has enough class to upset the above-mentioned. 

I think one of the Ballydoyle's will take this. My preference goes to Giselle which at 12/1 currently looks fabulous as a straight win or each-way punt.

Win, each-way: Giselle
Place: Minnie Hawk