Week-end European football preview

Baileys Agincourt was a disappointing 4th, beaten in the last couple of strides for 3rd place. There are not many things more frustrating than the horse you're favoring for a Place comes out short in 4th. This week-end is filled with interesting football matches and I have selected a few that I find value in following.

In England, I like Aston Villa's chances as they entertain Fulham. The arrival of Bent and the return of Ashley Young from injury have definitely had a positive impact on the Villains lately. This Villa team is certainly too good for the drop and I can see them improve and climb the table during the second half of the season. Fulham is a good team under Mark Hughes but they've lacked a cutting edge of late. They suffered before beating a diminished Newcastle team last week (a win that was predicted here) and Villa will have lots of ammunition at home to at least get a point out of this game. Aston Villa as a draw-no-bet is recommended.

Man City host West Brom in what should be a straight win for the Citizens. If Mancini's men can't beat Albion at home, then they can forget about winning the title. This will be an occasion for Dzeko or Tevez to increase their goal tally. A Win on Man City is recommended.

In Serie A, second-place Napoli is hosting third-from-bottom club Cesena. Napoli lost in its travel to an improving Chievo side last week, but they have good form at home and will keen to reduce the gap with leaders Milan. A draw-no-bet on Napoli is the recommendation.

In La Liga, Barcelona should win against an Athletico Madrid side that alters the good and the bad. Barcelona are in top form at the moment and had their stars rested in the mid-week Cup match against Almeira. So they should create plenty of chances against a side that has lost its last 2 away matches and that relies mainly on Forlan and Aguero for scoring. Real Madrid should also see out an average Real Sociedad side. Simply put, Mourinho's men have rack up maximum points from now on to have a realistic chance to catch the runaway leaders. So, both Madrid and Barcelona are recommended as Wins.

In France, I like Marseilles' chances against bottom-club Arles-Avignon. The hosts have been misfiring lately in the Championnat, and this game should give Deschamps the opportunity to right the ship. I can't see them lose this game, but because they are not on-song yet, a draw-no-bet on Marseilles is the recommendation.

Win: Barcelona, Real Madrid, Man City
Draw-no-bet: Aston Villa, Napoli, Marseilles

Friday Lingfield Preview

Bold Silvano won at Meydan today and although I am not one to jump to conclusions, I must say we might very well have seen the future Dubai World Cup winner. He won with authority against a talented field on his first outing on the Tapeta surface. And he was obviously not at his peak fitness. If he stays injury-free and moves forward as expected, he will take all the beating on World Cup day. The other horse that caught the eye in the same race was Interaction, the Argentinian star. He had a horrible trip but still managed to stay on for 3rd place. I don't think he would have won the race but that run will have brought him on enormously, and if he runs to his true potential, he is one to follow during the Carnival.

Staying in racing, I like Baileys Agincourt in the 14.20 Lingfield card on Friday. Mark Johnston's horses are on fire, and this is a weak contest for the son of Beat Hollow. A repeat of his last run should see him out in the first finishing 3. So a Place on Baileys Agincourt is recommended.

Place: Baileys Agincourt

Bold run from Bold Silvano?

Fulham and Real Madrid won their matches for a perfect one-two punch. Now we have confirmation of a dream final between Barcelona and Madrid. We'll see how to make of it in due time. But I watched a "supposedly-weakened" Barcelona team tear away Almeira. You wouldn't think that team was resting a few of the first-team players; their fringe players can fit in straight in their awesome football.

Tomorrow is racing day at Meydan. By all accounts the meeting last week was very disappointing as both of the de Kock horses I relied on failed to fire.

This week, Bold Silvano, the much-touted son of Silvano makes his seasonal debut. According to his trainer, he's 85% ready and a "big run" is expected. Translate this into a Win is expected. But wait a minute, there are other big guns in there as well; Last year's Dubai World Cup favourite Gitano Hernando also makes his come-back as he prepares for the big race again. So does Interaction, the South American star who went to Europe in a failed bid to run in the Arc last year. Al Shemali and Crowded House are of Group level as well. A great race with 5 Group 1 winners. I will still stick with Bold Silvano as there are only positive vibes from the training yard regarding his form and fitness. I believe the best from South Africa can match the best the world has to offer in Dubai. Bold Silvano is recommended to Place in the first 3.


Place: Bold Silvano

Wednesday EPL and Copa del Rey previews

Man Utd prevailed in its potentially tricky encounter with Aston Villa. Rooney's goal during the first minute changed the match as Villa were forced to alter any plan to defend. Arsenal and Chelsea also prevailed and so it will be a case of  Man City and Tottenham having to keep up with the pace in their matches on Wednesday.

Fulham hosts Newcastle and I think Mark Hughes men are a good value at draw-no-bet. Fulham are a tough team at home, and they are well disciplined under Hughes just like they were under Hodgson. Newcastle are 35 million pounds richer with the sale of Andy Carroll, but it will be tougher for them with no replacement for their best player. Going back to the sale, my opinion is Liverpool overpaid significantly for the England international. He's talented and full of potential, a monster in the air, but 35-million is a lot for someone still unproven and with only 1 cap. Fulham is a draw-no-bet recommendation.

In the Copa del Rey, Real Madrid already has one foot in the final after its away win at Sevilla. I can't see Mourinho's men losing the return tie at the Bernabeu. I don't buy this talk of fatigue settling in the Madrid camp. They just came back from winter break! The players will be eager to atone for their miserable loss at Osasuna and book their ticket to the final. Madrid as draw-no-bet looks safe to me.

Draw-no-bet: Fulham, Real Madrid

Tuesday Premier League preview

The Premier League fixture list on Tuesday looks pretty tricky with some very even match-ups on paper. I like Man Utd's chances as it hosts Aston Villa. Last season, Villa ended a 26-year winless run at Old Trafford after having come very close in the past few years. Who does not remember the enthralling game when Macheda scored the winner in extra-time a couple of years back? The heartbeat of Villa is Ashley Young and a big part will be how Man Utd can contain his runs his runs down the flanks. Without being spectacular, the Red Devils are racking up important points and are still unbeaten. The return of Rio Ferdinand will bring the important stability at the back that they much rely on. Berbatov is on fire and will be a main danger to score; a draw-no-bet on Man Utd is recommended.

Chelsea travel to Sunderland with new 50-million pound man Torres. There is no doubt in my mind that, without taking into account the price tag itself, the Spaniard is a massive reinforcement for Chelsea. Once he gets going into the Ancelotti system, he will resume being the scoring machine that he used to be. The question for Chelsea is how the trade will affect Drogba and Anelka. Does the new recruit mean one of them is surplus to requirements? After all, both are past their peaks. I believe the recruitment of Torres won't help Chelsea's bid to retain their title since they've given too much ground during their infamous December run. Whether he will make an impact in the Champions League for the Blues remains to be seen. As for the game against Sunderland, it really can go either way, so I'm not recommending on that one.

Draw-no-bet: Man Utd

Hopes are more or less over for Madrid

Certainly not the week-end that I was expecting in term of results; 2 won and 2 lost for a rather disappointing outcome. PSV and Barcelona won, but Real Madrid lost at lowly Osasuna, and at Lingfield, Buaiteoir lost 3rd place by a nose.

With the surprising defeat of Madrid, it would take a mad or brave man to think that Barcelona won't win the league title. 7 points at this stage is a really large gap to overcome. Even if Madrid succeeds in beating Barcelona at the Bernabeu (and that's a big IF), it will still have to hope Barcelona lose an extra 4 points, and without it not losing any in the process. A tough ask really and a team that cannot win at Osasuna and Almeira can hardly aspire to be usurp the crown from Barcelona.

In tennis, Murray got trounced by Djokovic in an encounter that was not even close. This demoralizing loss for the Scot has opened up the real possibility that he might never win a Grand Slam tournament. I hope that's not the case, but it's not tough to imagine otherwise after he was not able to profit from the absence of the big 2 Nadal and Federer. On the other hand, Djokovic seems to be on the upside and if he continues on his progression, he might have more Grand Slams in him. Is Federer on the downside? Too early to say.

No predictions for Monday, but there are some good match-ups coming up in the Premier League in mid-week, and of course, I'll be analyzing the race cards to see if there is anything of value in all-weather racing. Have a good week, and punt safe.

Week-end preview

An utterly disappointing pair of losing recommendations on the Thursday racing card at Meyday. Clearly Silver clearly did not like the blinkers, and Irish Flame was 4th which was not enough for a Place finish. While I was looking at the de Kock stable to power through the meeting, it came away empty-handed, and it was Godolphin that took the share of the spoils.

You will notice that I have made some changes to the blog contents and removed the history of recommendation page, as well as the strike rate count. It was really getting too time consuming to update these on a daily basis. That does not mean that I will stop giving predictions or have changed my approach to analyzing racing or football in any way. Far from it. I will still be focusing on writing what I believe are sure-fire punts, and will keep differentiating between hopeful and sure ones. The plan for me is to better the 87% strike rate achieved so far (minus the 2 failures yesterday), and it will be obvious if I am achieving the goal or largely deviating from it.

Saturday is the FA Cup and I can't find any match to recommend because FA Cup matches are a nest for surprises. In La Liga, Barcelona travel to Hercules for a tough match. Hercules are the only team to have beaten them in the League this season with a shock win at the Nou Camp. With their current devastating form, I believe Barcelona are poised to gain a measure of revenge; they should be winning this, and draw at worst. So a draw-no-bet on Guardiola's men is recommmended.

Real Madrid travel to Osasuna in a largely easier trip than Barcelona. I think they will win it, but will err with the side of caution and have them as draw-no-bet as well. What will the impact of Adebayor be? I think he definitely makes them more dangerous. Mourinho works well with seasoned forwards (Drogba, Benni McCarthy, Milito, Ibrahimovic, Eto'o), with the exception of Shevchenko. He will probably get the best out of Adebayor.

In the Dutch League, I like PSV Eidhoven as it hosts bottom-club Willem. They should be winning this handily as they march towards the title.

In horse racing, I like Buaiteoir in the Lingfield 13:25. He won going away his last race, and his current form should him among the first finishing 3. This Mineshaft gelding is a Place recommendation.

Finally, Andy Murray plays Djokovic in the Australian tennis final. I will surely be rooting for Murray to win his first Grand Slam. I think it will be very tight and it will simply be a matter of who gets the good breaks and is better on the day. It's too tight to call, but Go Murray!


Win: PSV Eidhoven
Draw-no-bet: Barcelona, Real Madrid
Place: Buaiteoir

Return of the Champion

The 100th recommendation was a good one with Barcelona emphatically winning the corner match-up 10-3 against Almeira. This brings my strike rate to 87% for the first 100 recommendations which is satisfying overall as my target at the start was to be slightly above the 90% mark. 87% isn't bad and out of the 13 ones that I got wrong, there are certainly 4 or 5 that I could have used better judgement. Anyway, there are certainly positive things that I have learnt from some of the mistakes, and hopefully I'll be applying them to good use with the upcoming predictions.

It seems for the Copa del Rey, we are heading for a juicy Barcelona v/s Real Madrid final, after both won the first-leg semi-finals. Who's to complain? That's the best rivalry in football today, and the more match-ups we can get of those 2 teams, the better for the show.

On Thursday, Meydan is the centre of attention with the 3rd round of the Carnival. I like Clearly Silver in the second race. This de Kock gelding was staying on for 3rd in a 7-furlong race a fortnight ago. He is more typically a sprinter, and as long as he takes to the blinkers, he should be in the whereabouts. I recommend him as a Place.

Irish Flame is the horse everyone will be having their eyes on in the 17:45 Group 2 race. The South African horse of the year will be making his seasonal debut at distance that will be on the short side for him. From the trainer's mouth, "he will run well but we’re not expecting him to win.” as Irish Flame is obviously being targetted for the Schema Classic. Given that the field consists mainly of exposed runners, his class should be enough to see him through among the finishers. He might not win as his trainer indicated, but a top 3 finish should be within his compass; so I recommend him as a Place.

Place: Clearly Silver, Irish Flame

Barcelona on conquest path

Both of Tuesday's recommendations were good as Man Utd won at Blackpool, and Arsenal got more corner kicks than Ipswich. These were 3 huge points for Utd yesterday. The replacement of an out-of-sorts Rooney by the speedy Chicharito turned the game on its head. Blackpool had no legs towards the end and the old fox Ferguson again played his substitutions perfectly. Rafael da Silva got concussed but this is a warrior of a player. With his comparatively small stature, he was winning headers on the defensive and offensive ends of the field! If they win the league, the comeback win at Bloomfield Road will be remembered as one of the decisive ones.

In the Carling Cup, the floodgates opened for Arsenal in the middle of the second half, after they had so many chances going begging. I don't know if there is as good a passer of the ball today as Cesc Fabregas. He can give them pinpoint on half-volley, one touch, exterior of the foot. No doubt Barcelona would like to have him back in their fold; he would fit in nicely in their football spectacle.

Talking of Barcelona, they host Almeira today in the first-leg semi-final of the Copa del Rey. Guardiola has yet to announce his team, but I can't see them losing this at home. The best Almeira can hope for is a lucky draw. In my opinion, like on Tuesday, the value will be in the Corners-match-bet. Barcelona should win the corner match-up handily. So my 100th recommendation since the start of this blog, is a Barcelona win on Corners-match-bet.


Corners-match-bet: Barcelona

Arsenal and Man Utd on different missions

After its astonishing defeat in the first leg of the Carling Cup at Portman Road, Arsenal will need to overcome Ipswich at the Emirates Stadium. Arsene Wenger has already stated that he will rotate the squad, but I still think he will at least have his star players on the bench in case things are not going according to planned. I think it will be a case where once Arsenal start scoring, the floodgates will have opened for many more. But it will be crucial for the Gunners to get that first goal. I can't see any value betting on Arsenal outright. What is more certain, and more importantly will bring better returns, is the match-bet on corner kicks. Arsenal should easily win on this one as Ipswich will literally be camping in their own half, so a Corners match-bet on Arsenal is the recommendation.

In the Premier League, leaders Man Utd visit Blackpool. If that game were not postponed and were actually played on the intended date a few weeks back, I would have favoured Blackpool to at least share the spoils. Since then, the form has changed, and Utd have been playing solidly at home and on the road. Their away form is still littered with many drawn matches due to late goals they've uncharacteristically conceded. With the return of Van der Sar, their defence is back to its resilient self and that should provide a solid foundation to their offensive capabilities. Blackpool just got rocked yesterday by the transfer request from their best player, Charlie Adam. They will still have their threatening moments against the Red Devils because they have a good system under manager Holloway, but if Rooney and his teammates are on-song, this should be a no contest. Man Utd to draw-no-bet is the recommendation.

Corners match-bet: Arsenal
Draw-no-bet: Man Utd

Man City lose ground, so will Chelsea?

Barcelona, Man Utd, Arsenal, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid all won, and the only blot in the predictions was Blackpool losing at home to Sunderland. I have to say I messed up on that one and wrongly under-estimated Sunderland. It's true that their keeper was unbelievable into making those saves that kept Blackpool off the score sheet, but Steve Bruce's men must be given credit for scoring 2 goals without arguably their 2 best strikers.

The biggest loser this week-end was Man City which lost even more ground to its Utd neighbours. Bringing in superstars during the January window does not necessarily reap immediate dividends since there is always an adjustment to be made in the system, and it will be interesting to see whether the Dzeko-Tevez partnership will click. 

Today, Chelsea are visiting Bolton and this is going to be a real test for the Blues. Under the guidance of Owen Coyle, Bolton seem to have gained some identity and they never make it easy for anyone. It could mean more blues for Drogba and his team mates particularly that Lampard is certain to miss the game. No recommendations here as any of the 2 teams could snatch this, but in my opinion, Chelsea will need to be at is near-best or some assistance from Lady Luck for it not to lose points here.

There are a couple of matches in England in mid-week; particularly a savoury Blackpool v/s Man Utd, which could have some decisive impact on the final standings. In Spain there are the Copa del Rey matches with Real and Barcelona still involved. I'll definitely be taking a look; thanks for tuning in.

Week-end football preview

What a busy week-end of European football we have coming up.

In the Premier League, Man Utd won't lose at home to Birmingham. The Red Devils were unlucky not to bag 3 points on their visit to the Midlands club a few weeks back due to a controversial last-minute equalizer from the hosts. The difference in class is obvious and Rooney won't get a better chance to start scoring again. Man Utd as draw-no-bet is safely recommended. Arsenal host Wigan, and the Gunners seem to have hit form again, and should be taking 3 points from this encounter. Wigan is a hard team to predict, so a draw-no-bet is the safe option here again. I also like Blackpool's chances as it hosts Sunderland. There is no doubt that both these teams are overachieving from initial expectations this year. But this has been a particularly terrible week for Bruce's team as they lost Darren Bent through the transfer window, and also Danny Wellbeck through injury. Those are massive losses and this also means that Bruce will only have one recognized striker in Gyan to start with. Blackpool is very dangerous at home, and I think they will win this, and if Sunderland can hold the fort well, they can hope for a draw. So a draw-no-bet on Blackpool is recommended. If you wish, you can lay Sunderland as well.

In La Liga, Barcelona host Santander. No surprises expected here, and Barcelona will win. They are recommended without any reservation. Real Madrid host Mallorca who are seeing a dip in form lately. Ronaldo and his teammates won't lose this for sure, and although they most certainly will win, a draw-no-bet is the safest way to go. Mourinho's annoyance with upper management is obvious this week, but that shouldn't affect the team itself. As I write this, it looks that Van Nistelrooy might be back in Madrid. This would be a massive plus for them if that happened, although it remains to be seen what Ronaldo and Van Nistelrooy make of their reunion on and off the pitch. Not the best of friends off the pitch and not the best chemistry on it during their Manchester days, if you see what I mean.

In the Bundesliga, Bayern host Kaiserlautern in a game that Van Gaal's men should win on paper. Robben and Klose are making their awaited comebacks from injury, which will make the team go from strength to strength in the upcoming weeks. They won't win the league this year, but they will still need to rack up points to secure a Champions League spot. A draw-no-bet on the hosts is recommended.


Win: Barcelona
Draw-no-bet: Man Utd, Arsenal, Blackpool, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich

Great horses of a lifetime...

Both of Thursday predictions won. Milan easily won against Bari and advanced to the next stage of the Coppa Italia and at Meydan, River Jetez was placed 3rd in her race.

The South African filly was very unlucky not to actually win her race as she was short of room at the rails. It reminded me very much a race at Meydan last year with Japanese champion Vodka also being stuck on the inside rails in a race she should have won. Anyway, River Jetez is certainly one to follow as the Carnival progresses. Also to follow is Godolphin's Simon de Montfort who won his race quite handily under Kieren Fallon; as I was writing in my previous post, this is a very classy colt and he does not seem to have lost any of his turn of foot. Godolphin and Mike de Kock are dominating proceedings as I mentioned they would, which is hopefully a good omen for my recommendations as long as I can pick their right horses.

I can't see anything of punting value for Friday. Japan is playing hosts Qatar in the Asian Cup in what should be an interesting match. The Australian Open is in full swing, and in my opinion, Nadal will at least reach the final. No punting or recommendations on this though as I haven't spent time assessing the main candidates to the trophy. I would think it will be between Nadal, Fed and Murray, but that's quite stating the obvious. No, I'm just bracing myself for this week-end's football and racing; in the meantime I'll finally go watch Secretariat the movie. I don't know much about the great horse besides it winning the Triple Crown and winning the Belmont by oh-so-many lengths, that seemed to have made its legend. Ahh, champion thoroughbreds... If I can leave the reality of punting a little bit, and fancy a 12-furlong race on a non-biased synthetic surface (say Meydan)...The Americans would bring Secretariat and Zenyatta, the British would come with Sea The Stars and Dancing Brave, the French with Zarkava and Peintre Celebre, the Japanese with Deep Impact, the South Americans with Invasor, the South Africans with Horse Chestnut and Pocket Power, the Australasians with So You Think and Makybe Diva, and the mighty Ribot would come for the Italians ... A wonder race for the ages... My trifecta would be... Sea The Stars, Deep Impact and Zarkava! and I am sure my selection will not be unanimous among other racing fans.

Ok, I'm off go to watch the movie about the great Secretariat...

Coppa Italia and Meydan

Inter confirmed predictions by winning against Cesena. It was actually a more difficult win than expected, and Cesena did have their chances to tie up the game. The visitors were dangerous on some occasions while playing with 10 men! I suppose this Inter team is still finding its feet with Leonardo.

Remaining in Italian football on Thursday, Milan host Bari in the Coppa Italia. It's really first against last place teams in Serie A and I will be tremendously surprised if Bari can win this encounter. Milan will field a strong team, and Bari will be more preoccupied with Saturday's league game to stave off relegation. I cannot see Milan losing this game in 90 minutes, so I recommend them as draw-no-bet.

Back to racing in Meydan and another really competitive race card on the agenda. In the 17:45 race, I like River Jetez, who's under the de Kock care for the festival. The full sister to Pocket Power seems to be training really well according to her trainer, so I can see her finishing in the first 3 in a field that seems not up to par with her abilities. Depending her form and fitness, she could very well win this, but I'll recommend the safe Place option on her.

In the last race, it will be interesting to see the return of Simon de Montfort. I think at his best, this colt has a ton of ability with a superb turn of foot. No recommendations on him, it will mainly for my knowledge base to see whether he's still the classy horse that gave out a lot of promise during the early part of the last season in France. There are some very good sorts in that race as well, in Peligroso and Zeitoper for what makes a very competitive handicap indeed.

Draw-no-bet: Milan
Place: River Jetez

Inter to keep rolling

Man City, South Korea and Australia all won, which made for a perfect winning trifecta. After leaking 3 goals during the week-end against Wolves, City conceded 2 more against lowly Leicester. It seems their potent attack is bailing them out these days, so something to take note for their upcoming games. In racing, Zenyatta won the Eclipse award for Horse of the Year 2010. As I was mentioning previously, I thought Blame was more meritorious, but since there are no guidelines for these awards, I have no problem with this outcome. Like many, I strongly believe that her win had more to do with her popularity than actual track performance when compared to Blame.

On Wednesday, I like Inter's chances in the Serie A against Cesena. Leonardo has brought in a breath of fresh air to this Inter team that Benitez almost wrecked in the same style as Liverpool. Leonardo has still got a lot to prove as a coach, so I don't think Inter are anywhere close to their level in the Mourinho days. But the Serie A is a very average league by its past standards, and Inter has no team to fear in that league when playing with their newly-found confidence. Their winning form should continue and I like them as a safe draw-no-bet against struggling Cesena.

Draw-no-bet: Inter.